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Archives for October 2010

Odds & Ends: Dodgers, Theriot, Padres, Reds, Harper

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Some links on the eve of playoff baseball..

  • The Dodgers have asked Rick Honeycutt to return next season but the pitching coach is weighing his options, tweets Ken Davidoff of Newsday.
  • Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner takes a look at potential second base candidates for the M's in 2011.  Ryan Theriot, who was less-than-stellar for the Cubs and Dodgers this season, is among the players listed.
  • Jerry Hairston Jr. told Jim Bowden of XM Radio (via Twitter) that he wants to return to the Padres in 2011.
  • The Reds could be in position to contend for years to come if they keep their key pieces, writes MLB.com's Mark Sheldon.
  • While the O's projected rotation for 2011 is young, GM Andy MacPhail hasn't ruled out the possibility of bringing a veteran aboard to fill the place of pending free agent Kevin Millwood.
  • The Nats probably won't have Bryce Harper play in the Arizona Fall League this year, writes Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.
  • You can expect a busy winter in San Diego, writes Bill Center of the Union-Tribune.
  • Mariners CEO Howard Lincoln and GM Jack Zduriencik sent a letter to fans promising better times ahead.  Larry Stone of The Seattle Times notes that Josh Lueke was omitted from a list of the system's "hard-throwing pitchers".
  • Jim Callis of Baseball America (via Twitter) believes that the Mets should hire Logan White as their next GM.
  • The Pirates have interviewed Eric Wedge for their vacant managerial opening, tweets Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com.
  • Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette gives his thoughts on John Russell's tenure as Pirates skipper.

Poll: Will The Jays Re-Sign Buck?

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This season, John Buck was afforded a fresh start in Toronto and churned out his best offensive season to date.  The 30-year-old catcher hit .281/.314/.489 with 20 homers in 118 games.  After being non-tendered by the Royals in 2009, Buck made his first All-Star team in 2010.  All in all, a solid year for a guy making $2MM on a one year deal.

However, with J.P Arencibia waiting in the wings, some have wondered if there's room for Buck on the Blue Jays in 2011.  Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos said that while he will explore bringing back Buck, the veteran backstop has earned a long-term contract and a starting job.  The question is: Will Buck get that opportunity in Toronto?  Arencibia had a stellar year in Triple-A, posting a slash line of .301/.359/.626 with 32 homers in 104 games.  With numbers like those, one has to wonder if the 24-year-old's learning curve will be steep enough to justify retaining a player who is six years his senior.

Will the Blue Jays re-sign Buck?

Click here to take the poll, and here to view the results.

Wright Hopes To Stay With Mets

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Earlier this week, Mets COO Jeff Wilpon caused a bit of a stir when he said that he "couldn't imagine" dealing David Wright, but would be willing to listen if the new GM proposed an idea.  Even though front office changes in Queens could result in a major roster shakeup, the third baseman told Dan Martin of the New York Post that he wants to remain with the Mets.

"Of course I'd love to stay with the team that I grew up rooting for and who drafted and developed me, but as of right now that's not in my control…I hope I remain with the team and I'm part of the solution that gets this thing turned around," Wright told the newspaper in an e-mail.

Wright, who turns 28 in December, is under contract through 2012 with a club option for 2013.  He's slated to earn $14MM in 2011, $15MM in 2012, and $16MM in the club option year which could also be bought out for $1MM.

The five-time All-Star turned in a .283/.354/.503 line with 29 homers in 670 plate appearances this season.

Type A and B Free Agents

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Based on Eddie Bajek's reverse-engineered Elias rankings, 83 free agents will be ranked Type A or B for the 2010-11 offseason.  Right now there are 33 Type A and 50 Type B free agents.  The list is below.  The deadline for teams to offer arbitration to their own free agents is November 23rd.  Prior to that date this list will shrink quite a bit, as certain players have options that will obviously be exercised, others will sign extensions, and Wagner and Lowell will retire.  If recent history is any indication, 23-24 free agents will ultimately be offered arbitration.  Keep in mind that unless a player is offered arbitration and turns it down to sign a Major League deal with another club, there is no draft pick compensation.

Type A

Albert Pujols – 96.667
Jayson Werth – 92.000
Rafael Soriano – 91.771
Derek Jeter – 91.304
Mariano Rivera – 88.609
Victor Martinez – 87.054
Cliff Lee – 86.932
Matt Thornton – 86.094
Carl Crawford – 84.615
Billy Wagner – 83.650
Adrian Beltre – 82.313
A.J. Pierzynski – 80.804
Andy Pettitte – 80.682
Vladimir Guerrero – 80.000
Ted Lilly – 79.950
Jason Kubel – 79.744
Bronson Arroyo – 79.538
Matt Guerrier – 79.483
Paul Konerko – 78.095
Magglio Ordonez – 77.436
Miguel Tejada – 76.720
Manny Ramirez – 76.154
Scott Downs – 76.069
Carl Pavano – 75.000
Ramon Hernandez – 74.517
Mark Ellis – 74.405
Dan Wheeler – 74.218
Jorge de la Rosa – 74.092
Jason Frasor – 73.446
Grant Balfour – 72.727
Frank Francisco – 72.584
Arthur Rhodes – 72.076
Takashi Saito – 69.749

Type B

David Ortiz – 75.000
Johnny Damon – 74.359
Derrek Lee – 74.167
Adam Dunn – 74.167
Hideki Matsui – 73.333
Javier Vazquez – 71.875
Jon Garland – 71.452
Brad Hawpe – 71.026
Bengie Molina – 72.321
Scott Podsednik – 70.588
Orlando Hudson – 70.238
Brandon Inge – 68.707
Jon Rauch – 68.541
Koji Uehara – 67.733
John Buck – 67.411
Felipe Lopez – 66.964
Brian Fuentes – 66.906
Pedro Feliciano – 66.733
Joaquin Benoit – 66.727
Kevin Gregg – 66.673
Orlando Cabrera – 66.667
Lance Berkman – 66.667
Octavio Dotel – 66.442
Juan Uribe – 65.608
Miguel Olivo – 65.251
Carlos Pena – 64.762
Jason Varitek – 64.732
David Eckstein – 64.732
Mike Lowell – 64.626
Jhonny Peralta – 63.946
Yorvit Torrealba – 63.707
Trevor Hoffman – 63.043
Kerry Wood – 62.666
Aramis Ramirez – 62.637
Jose Reyes – 62.434
Randy Choate – 62.379
J.J. Putz – 61.876
Adam LaRoche – 61.667
Omar Infante – 61.607
Alex Gonzalez – 61.376
Jesse Crain – 60.690
Gerald Laird – 60.045
Aubrey Huff – 60.000
Rod Barajas – 59.459
Hisanori Takahashi – 58.650
Aaron Heilman – 58.512
Chad Durbin – 58.359
Kevin Millwood – 58.049
Kevin Correia – 57.261
Chad Qualls – 56.126

Arbitration Eligibles: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds are next in our arbitration eligibles series…

Votto will reach arbitration with a .314/.401/.557 career line in 456 games, including 268 runs, 90 home runs, 298 RBIs, 28 steals, a second-place Rookie of the Year finish, an All-Star appearance, and probably an MVP award.  He'll have no problem making $7MM or more, and he doesn't know if he'd be interested in a long-term deal.

Rotation members Volquez and Cueto will certainly be tendered contracts too.  John Danks' first-time arbitration salary of $3.45MM could be a target, though Cueto has the superior platform year among the two Reds pitchers. 

Bruce isn't going anywhere either.  MLBTR broke the news in June that he will be the Super Two with the least amount of service time this offseason, at two years and 125 days.  Carlos Quentin's $3.2MM might be his goal.

Bray is worth tendering.  He had Tommy John surgery in May of '09, limiting his career numbers.  He was pretty good in 28.3 big league innings this year in his return.  Burton would be slightly more expensive, coming from an $810K salary.  Dealing with asthma and lack of strength this year, Burton spent most of the season at Triple A.  I could see this one going either way depending on how the Reds feel about his health.  His raise would be minimal.

Miller, who was outrighted in July but had his contract purchased in September, will likely be non-tendered for the flexibility.  Nix was outrighted in November of last year and re-signed to a minor league deal.  He was better this year, but was limited by an August ankle injury.  I lean toward the Reds non-tendering him and attempting to re-sign him to a minor league deal again.

The Reds non-tendered Gomes last year coming off a .267/.338/.541 season, re-signing him in February.  He performed worse on a rate basis with more playing time this year, but managed to knock in 86 runs.  Gomes' current contract with the Reds has a $1.75MM club option for 2011 with a $500K buyout.  I'm not sure if they'll find the $1.25MM net price to their liking, but according to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Reds have to release Gomes if they decline his option.  Perhaps that means he's not technically arbitration eligible.

If the Reds let all of their free agents leave and also cut Gomes, Miller, and Nix, I estimate they'd have around $60MM committed.  That'd mean $16MM to work with if payroll is held steady, and perhaps more given this year's attendance jump and playoff revenue.

Rockies Undecided On Olivo Option

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2:52pm: The Rockies have not determined whether they'll pick up their side of Olivo's option, tweets Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post.  Renck says the Rockies are keeping an open mind, with Victor Martinez on the radar.  At #20, the Rockies would give the second-best available draft pick to the Red Sox if they sign V-Mart after he turned down an arbitration offer.

8:11am: The Rockies will exercise their option on catcher Miguel Olivo, tweets Tracy Ringolsby of Inside The Rockies.  By reaching his 110th game played on September 26th, Olivo's club option became mutual and jumped up to $2.7MM.  That means Olivo could still decline the option in search of a bigger payday or multiple years, though he told Jim Armstrong of the Denver Post last month he wants to stay.

The 32-year-old backstop hit .269/.315/.449 with 14 home runs in 427 plate appearances this year for the Rockies.  He caught 935 innings, throwing out 42% of attempted thieves.  His presence in 2011 would again create an uncomfortable situation for Chris Iannetta, who is on a multiyear deal running through 2012.  Iannetta has a 2013 club option he can void if he's traded, which seems like a legitimate possibility this winter.

Mets GM Rumors: Jennings, Hart, Hunsicker

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The Wilpons asked the Marlins for permission to speak to Marlins assistant GM Dan Jennings about their GM opening, tweets ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.  The Miami Herald's Clark Spencer says the Mets asked for permission to speak to Marlins executives Larry Beinfest and Mike Hill as well, but are likely to be denied the chance to speak to any of the three.  It would be odd for the Marlins to allow a division rival the opportunity to swipe a top executive.

According to Newsday's David Lennon on Twitter, former Rangers and Indians GM John Hart would be interested in the Mets' opening but could be expensive.  Hart remains with the Rangers as a senior advisor in baseball operations.  How about a reunion with Gerry Hunsicker, who currently serves as a senior VP with the Rays?  He told Mike Sielski of the Wall Street Journal Saturday that he did not have a burning passion to be a GM again and that "it would have to be a very special situation."

Free Agent Market For First Basemen

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First base is a place for offense, and the free agent market offers plenty of options.  The Orioles, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, White Sox, Rangers, Braves, Nationals, Cubs, Brewers, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, and Giants could be seeking first base help in some capacity this winter.  That's nearly half the teams in baseball, so we could see quite the first base shuffle.

Coming Off Big Years

Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, and Aubrey Huff had well-timed walk years.  Dunn and Konerko each approached 40 home runs, while Huff hit for power and drew 83 walks.  As a Type A, Konerko could cost a new team a draft pick if he turns down an arbitration offer from the White Sox.  Konerko's big year suggests a multiyear contract, though he will head into next season at 35.  Unlike Dunn, he seems open to increased time at DH.  Konerko seems willing to walk away from the game if he doesn't find an acceptable offer.  Dunn and Huff are Type Bs.  Dunn has been a model of consistency with his home run totals, though his walk rate took a dip this year.  For some reason, the common refrain among writers is that four years and $60MM will get him signed.  Memories of Huff's abysmal 2009 season could limit his offers.

Bounceback Candidates

Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Derrek Lee, and Nick Johnson had strong 2009 seasons but suffered injuries and/or decline in 2010.  Berkman, 35 in February, still draws plenty of walks but had a power outage this year as he dealt with knee and ankle injuries.  Johnson, 32, was limited to 98 plate appearances due to multiple wrist surgeries.  Berkman and Johnson could DH next year.  Lee, 35, dealt with side, hand, back, hamstring, thumb, and foot injuries this year.  Pena, 33 in May, took a nosedive in 2010 but still drew 87 walks.  The Boras client could sign a one-year deal in hopes of returning to his 40 home run days.

Potential Regulars

Russell Branyan, Ty Wigginton, Jorge Cantu, Troy Glaus, Adam LaRoche, Xavier Nady, and Lyle Overbay may view themselves as starters, but could find offers of regular playing time hard to come by.  LaRoche should be OK coming off a 100 RBI season, though his OBP was just .320.  Similarly, Branyan has power but struck out plenty and didn't get on base frequently.

Non-Tender Candidates

Casey Kotchman will be cut by the Mariners after a rough year; he turns 28 in February.  The Dodgers could trade or non-tender James Loney, who hit .267/.329/.395 but would get a raise on this year's $3.1MM salary.  The Rays' Dan Johnson could be cut, though he had a huge year at Triple A and had his moments with the big club.

Summary

First base openings are widespread this offseason.  Dunn, Konerko, Huff, and Pena should be in demand, while the others may have to scramble for work or head to the American League as part-time DHs.  The trade market, covered here, should offer at least one heavy hitter in Prince Fielder. 

Athletics Notes: Payroll, Barton, Stadium

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Let's discuss the latest on the Athletics, with some help from Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle…

  • The A's haven't set their budget yet.  Slusser expects payroll flexibility to be created by the team letting Ben Sheets leave, declining Eric Chavez's club option, and non-tendering Jack Cust and Gabe Gross.  We looked at the team's 12 arbitration eligible players a week ago and suggested that Jeremy Hermida, Conor Jackson, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and Travis Buck may also be cut.
  • More uncertainty comes in the form of club options for Mark Ellis ($6MM with a $500K buyout) and Coco Crisp ($5.75MM with a $500K buyout).  Slusser writes that GM Billy Beane expects to have conversations about that next week.
  • Wrote Slusser: "Beane emphasized that he doesn't want to add power at the expense of defense, noting in particular that the team has no intention of moving Daric Barton from first base."  The A's could look at a slew of DH options beyond Cust.  But perhaps Beane's statement rules out a Carlos Pena reunion.
  • Beane is optimistic about getting approval for a new stadium, but it's only a gut feeling.  He believes MLB's blue-ribbon panel will issue its report soon.

Mike Napoli And The Arbitration Process

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One area that's always been murky for baseball fans is the process by which salaries for arbitration-eligible players are determined.  Using Angels catcher Mike Napoli as an example, let's attempt to shed some light on arbitration.

The first conclusion I reached when looking into Napoli's comparables is that there aren't any good ones.  Do you know any catchers who went to arbitration for a third time in recent years?  All the good ones were locked up, and all the bad ones were non-tendered.  John Buck might have been a comparable, but the Royals cut him loose before he could go to arbitration a third time.  The only catcher we found who recently went to arbitration a third time was the Tigers' Gerald Laird.  Laird's offensive stats after the '09 season paled in comparision to Napoli's current body of work, so we need to look elsewhere.

If an agent and team are forced to go to an arbitration hearing over a player's salary, the statistics used to make arguments are simple.  For Napoli it might be his .251 batting average, 92 home runs, 249 RBIs, and 246 runs.  He's heading to arbitration for the third time.  He has four years and 151 days of service and will be building off his 2010 salary of $3.6MM.

A baseball source gave me two comparables he thought Napoli's agent Brian Grieper might be able to use: Jorge Cantu after '09 and Xavier Nady after '08.  The criteria for an arbitration comparison talks about service levels, but not positions.  It's already been proven that catchers get extra credit in arbitration for being catchers – in his first year of arbitration, Russell Martin got $3.9MM.  You might expect that salary for a 30 home run, 100 RBI player, not a 13 home run, 69 RBI guy like Martin.  Napoli himself got $2MM in his first arbitration year coming off a season in which he played 78 games.

So even though Napoli falls short of Cantu and Nady in most basic offensive categories, they're workable comparables given the lack of similar catchers.  Napoli has a half-season of playing first base on his resume, so that might strengthen the comparison.  Cantu went from $3.5MM to $6MM, while Nady went from $3.35MM to $6.55MM.  Their raises were between $2.5-3.2MM, or 71-96%.  Napoli's agent might be able to argue for a $6-7MM salary for 2011, unless the Angels find more similar players who were paid less.

Could Napoli be non-tendered by the Angels this winter? One baseball source agreed with my estimate of a 10% chance, while another put it below 5%.  We all agreed Napoli is more likely to be traded than cut loose, though one of them remarked, "I think if they are stuck with him they will wish they would have non-tendered him."  The Angels won't be desperate – they can afford Napoli if no one wants him, but they should be able to find a taker for a 26 home run catcher even if his defense is poorly-regarded.  Keep in mind that even though Napoli is technically under team control through 2012, his 2011 salary could make him a likely non-tender.

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