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Adam Dunn: Type B Free Agent?

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As I mentioned earlier, Eddie Bajek's reverse-engineered Elias rankings are subject to change if we find errors.  However, the current end-of-season iteration presents an interesting possibility: Adam Dunn may be a Type B free agent.

We have Dunn at 74.166 points in the NL 1B/OF group, tied with Derrek Lee and just shy of Angel Pagan's 74.353 Type A status.  If Dunn is a Type B, here are the implications:

  • The Nationals would only be able to receive one compensation pick for losing Dunn, not two.  This would make the decision not to trade Dunn in July look worse, and could serve as extra motivation to extend him.
  • The Nationals might be more inclined to offer Dunn arbitration if he's a Type B rather than A.  Dunn's agent at Legacy Sports knows that his client's market will improve if he's a Type B, since the signing team would not have to surrender a draft pick.  An increase in Dunn's free agent stock makes him more likely to decline an arbitration offer from the Nationals in search of a multiyear deal.  The Nationals, knowing Dunn is less likely to accept as a B, might be more likely to offer him arbitration.
  • The market for Dunn will improve.  For example: at #19, the Tigers have the best unprotected draft pick for 2011.  If Dunn is a Type B who turned down an arbitration offer, they can sign him without giving up that prized pick or any others.

2009-10 Reverse-Engineered Elias Rankings

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Once the regular season ended, the Elias Sports Bureau took all players over the 2009-10 period, divided them into five groups for each league, and ranked them based on various statistics.  Each player was labeled a Type A, B, or none.  Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).

Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  Here's a look at his 2009-10 projections, to tide you over until the official ones come out from Elias.  There are a lot of moving parts in reverse-engineering the Elias rankings, so these are subject to change if we find errors.  Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed during the season's final week.

Moore, Meredith, Castillo, Aubrey Elect Free Agency

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Orioles players Scott Moore, Cla Meredith, Alberto Castillo, and Michael Aubrey elected free agency, tweets MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli.  They appear to be minor league free agents, having finished the season at Triple A and off the 40-man roster.

Moore, 27 in November, hit .209/.274/.337 in 96 plate appearances for the Orioles this year, playing mostly second base.  He joined the Orioles in August of '07 in the Steve Trachsel deal with the Cubs.  Moore was designated for assignment in '09 and '10, clearing waivers both times.  He hit .280/.345/.476 at Triple A this year while playing mainly third base.

Meredith, 27, tallied 15 relief innings for the Orioles this year with a 5.40 ERA, 4.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and four home runs allowed.  The sidearmer racks up groundballs and handles righties well on his best days.  The Orioles acquired him from the Padres for Oscar Salazar in July of last year.  He was designated for assignment and cleared waivers in June.

Castillo, 35, whiffed 11 but allowed five homers and 12 earned runs in his 10.6 inning stint with the O's this year.  He was designated for assignment in June to clear a 40-man spot for Jake Arrieta.  Castillo's work in Triple A: a 4.54 ERA, 9.8 K/9, and 3.4 BB/9 in 39.6 innings.  He was done in by 46 hits allowed.  His previous work in Triple A was more encouraging.

Aubrey, 28, was drafted 11th overall by the Indians in 2003.  It appeared that he might get a shot at first base for the Orioles heading into this season, but they signed Garrett Atkins and ended up designating Aubrey on April 1st.  He spent the season at Triple A, hitting .235/.310/.495 with 22 home runs in 419 plate appearances.

Cardinals Notes: La Russa, Pujols, Payroll

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In an afternoon meeting yesterday, the Cardinals made an offer to Tony La Russa to manage the team in 2011, according to MLB.com's Matthew Leach and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold.  Leach quotes GM John Mozeliak saying that he hopes to have a resolution within seven to ten days.  La Russa indicated he would not manage another team next year, but would not rule out working for another team in a different capacity.  But in the opinion of Goold, "All indications are pointing toward La Russa's return, from the All-Stars the Cardinals have coming back to the recent comments he's made about the team in 2011."

Perhaps of more interest to us hot stove junkies is Joe Strauss' take on the offseason in a separate piece.  Strauss notes that the team has a small arbitration class (first-timers Kyle McClellan and Brendan Ryan) but almost $80MM committed to nine players.  Among those nine is Albert Pujols, whose $16MM club option is a formality.  Extension talks are expected to occur after the La Russa situation is resolved.  The team's $94MM payroll appears to be on the rise, though retaining Jake Westbrook might compel the team to fill other holes internally and cheaply in Strauss' opinion.  Strauss explains the team's needs:

The Cardinals go forward seeking a backup catcher, a lefthanded reliever, an upgrade at either second base or shortstop, a safety net at third base, heft for the bench and possibly a right fielder.

Padres Notes: Gonzalez, Bell, Tejada, Coaches

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Earlier tonight we learned that the Padres will not pick up Chris Young's $8.5MM option for 2011 and that GM Jed Hoyer will meet with Adrian Gonzalez's agent in the coming weeks, but MLB.com's Corey Brock brings us some more rumors. Let's dive in…

  • Hoyer confirmed that the team will exercise Gonzalez's $6.2MM option for next season when the time comes. There was never a doubt about this one. He also mentioned that they will listen to trade offers for their star player during the winter.
  • They will also listen to offers for closer Heath Bell, who figures to earn a nice raise after pulling down $4MM in 2010. "I haven't made any definitive decisions, but we are a better team with [Gonzalez and Bell] than without them," Hoyer said. "I'm sort of in the never-say-never category. In this business, the job is to make the team and the organization as good as it can be."
  • Hoyer indicated that he would be open to bringing Miguel Tejada back, but not at the $6MM salary he earned in 2010. The 36-year-old hit .268/.317/.413 with eight homers in 253 plate appearances after being acquired at the deadline, and he even moved back to his natural position of shortstop for all but four games.
  • Bench coach Ted Simmons will not return next season as he looks for a managerial job. First base coach Rick Renteria could replace him, but he is expected to interview for some manager jobs himself. Hitting coach Randy Ready is in the same boat as Renteria.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Cliff Lee

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It's not often that a bonafide ace hits the free agent market, but when one does it often leads to a feeding frenzy of big market clubs and mystery teams. Current Rangers ace and former Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and in a few weeks he will be able to offer his services to the highest bidder on the open market for the first time in his career.

Lee's credentials are undeniable, but teams must still weigh the good against the bad when preparing to offer anyone a contract of this magnitude. Let's break it down…

The Good

  • Lee is a proven workhorse, logging 667.1 innings over the last three seasons. He's thrown at least 200 innings in five of the last six years and made at least 28 starts in six of the last seven years.
  • If you're a believer in WAR, Lee's +20.8 mark since 2008 is second only to Roy Halladay's +21.5 among all pitchers.
  • He's proven himself in the American League, so there won't be any adjustment period as far as that is concerned.
  • Lee's command is off-the-charts, evidenced by a 0.8 BB/9 this season. He also set a new single season record with a 10.28 K/BB ratio (min. 150 innings).
  • Although he mixes in a curveball, Lee is primarily a fastball-cutter-changeup pitcher without huge velocity. As Andy Pettitte and Jamie Moyer have shown, lefthanders with that arsenal can pitch forever as long as they have their health. 

The Bad

  • Lee is on the wrong side of 30, having turned 32 just over a month ago.
  • He battled some back issues last month, and has a history of oblique trouble dating back to 2003. His arm has been relatively free of injury, however.
  • As a Type-A free agent certain to be offered arbitration, any team except Texas will have to forfeit a high draft to sign him.
  • The Yankees have long had interest in Lee (they almost acquired him this summer), and if they get involved in the bidding it would make life very difficult for everyone else.

The Verdict

Despite the back issues, Lee is certain to become one of the two or three highest paid pitchers in baseball in the coming months. Every team would love to be able to add him to their staff, but it's only economically feasible for a handful. The Yankees have a leg up on everyone else not just because they can offer the most money, but also because Lee is close with CC Sabathia from their Cleveland days. 

That said, the Rangers just signed a lucrative television deal that enables them to make a competitive offer, and we'd be foolish to rule out traditional big spenders like the Mets, Red Sox, Angels, and Tigers (regardless of what they've said). Even the Orioles and Nationals have shown a willingness to go big game hunting on the free agent market recently, so don't be surprised if they get involved as well. 

Lee might not be able to secure a seven-year, $161MM deal like Sabathia since he's three years older than CC was when he hit the market, but $20MM annually for five years seems like nothing more than a starting point. 

Padres Will Not Pick Up Young’s Option, Hoyer To Meet With Gonzalez’s Agent In Coming Weeks

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Despite a heartbreaking end, the 2010 season should be considering nothing but a smashing success for the Padres. They sat atop the NL West for the majority of the season and were in contention for a playoff spot until Game 162 even though almost everyone considered them to be one of the worst teams in the league coming out of Spring Training. They did all that with a payroll approaching just $38MM (according to Cot's), less than the Yankees pay the left side of their infield.

That said, the team can not afford to spend $8.5MM on an injury prone Chris Young next season, and Dan Hayes of The North County Times reports that the team will decline his 2011 option (Twitter links). The Padres are open to bringing him back, but it would have to be at a lesser price. Young has thrown just 198.1 innings (4.13 ERA) over the last three seasons due to back and shoulder issues, not to mention facial fractures suffered when he was hit by a line drive.

With that out of the way, the focus will inevitably turn to homegrown megastar Adrian Gonzalez, who will become a free agent 12 months from now once the team picks up his $6.2MM no-brainer option for 2011. It's been assumed for two years now that Gonzalez would be traded at some point, simply because the team is unlikely to be able to afford him in the future and they could certainly fetch more value than two draft picks on the trade market.

GM Jed Hoyer told MLB.com's Corey Brock that he obviously wants to keep Gonzalez on the team going into next season, but he would not guarantee that it will happen (Twitter link). Hoyer also said that he will meet with Gonzalez's agent John Boggs at some point in the coming weeks, and indicated that payroll will increase an undisclosed amount next season (Hayes Twitter link). Unless they're expanding the payroll considerably, it's tough to imagine a new contract with Gonzalez being hammered out. 

Amazingly, the Padres only have $1.1MM in salary obligation for next season, and that's broken down into a $600K buyout of Jon Garland's $6.75MM option and a $500K buyout of Yorvit Torrealba's $3.5MM option. Everyone else on the roster is either due to become a free agent in a few weeks or is still in their pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible seasons when contracts are not guaranteed. There's certainly no albatross contracts hanging over their heads that are preventing them from signing Gonzalez.

During the summer we heard rumors that Adrian could seek an eight-year deal when he hits free agency, likely meaning that he's looking for Mark Teixeira money. The 28-year-old has hit .288/.374/.514 with an average of just over 32 homers per season in his five years as a Padre, but outside of Petco Park those numbers jump to .303/.376/.568. He's also considered to be one of the game's best defenders, so the Teixeira comparisons are appropriate. About the only thing Gonzalez doesn't do is switch hit.

Blue Jays Notes: Overbay, Encarnacion, Bautista

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Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos met with reporters for an extended media session today, speaking about a wide range of topics. MLB.com's Jordan Bastian brings us the highlights…

  • Anthopoulos acknowledged Lyle Overbay's strong finish to the season, but the team's approach for first base is unchanged. They will explore trades and the free agent market with no guarantee that Overbay will return. 
  • Aaron Hill offered to change positions (third base) if it will help the team. The Jays have until Opening Day of next season to make a decision on the 2012 ($8MM), 2013 ($8MM), and 2014 ($10MM) options in Hill's contract. If they wait until after next season, the 2014 option is voided.
  • There is a chance that Edwin Encarnacion will be non-tendered given the raise he's likely to receive through arbitration. Encarnacion earned $4.75MM in 2010 and will be arb eligible for the final time before free agency.
  • The Jays are prepared to go to arbitration with 54 HR man Jose Bautista. He earned $2.4MM this year and his salary is likely to jump into the $7-9MM range after his monster season. Bastian doesn't think the two sides will work out a long-term deal this winter.
  • Fred Lewis was unhappy when his playing time diminished late in the season. If he's not in the team's plans as a bench player next year, a non-tender could be in order.
  • Even with Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs, and Jason Frasor all eligible to become free agents in a few weeks, Anthopoulos doesn't consider having veterans in the bullpen a top priority.
  • He'd like to add more balance to a lineup that relied primarily on the long ball this season. The Jays led MLB by a large margin with 257 homers, but they finished just ninth with 755 runs scored because of a pedestrian .312 OBP.
  • The possibility of keeping catcher John Buck will be explored, but Anthopoulos said he's earned a long-term deal and a starting job, something that might not work with top prospect J.P. Arencibia having nothing left to prove in the minors.
  • The Blue Jays are not operating with a specific payroll; the GM has the ability to adjust the finances as he sees fit. That gives them more flexibility when looking at free agent and trade scenarios.
  • There are no more front office hirings in the immediate future, but one thing they're considering is someone with more of a computer and statistical analysis background. 
  • Shi Davidi of The Canadian Press adds that Anthopoulos acknowledged the inherent riskiness of trades, but he still considers it the best way to improve the team and is willing to deal prospects for established big leaguers (Twitter links). 

Tigers Talk: Avila, Raburn, Ordonez, Inge, Boesch

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The Tigers made quite a bit of noise yesterday, declining to pick up Magglio Ordonez's option and announcing that they would not pursue Cliff Lee or another top tier free agent starting pitcher, among several other things. John Lowe of The Detroit Free Press has some more today…

  • First base (Miguel Cabrera) and centerfield (Austin Jackson) are the only positions set in stone for next year, and they plan to fill several others from within. Alex Avila (.228/.316/.340 in 333 plate appearances) will take over as the starting catcher, and Ryan Raburn (.280/.340/.474 in 410 PA) will essentially have a full-time outfield job. Second base will also be filled from within, with Will Rhymes and Scott Sizemore representing the early favorites. Once he returns from knee surgery, Carlos Guillen is expected to be a "jack of all trades."
  • The Tigers do have interest in bringing Ordonez back, presumably at a rate much lower than the $15MM option they declined. That could fill the hole at designated hitter.
  • Dave Dombrowski acknowledged that Brandon Inge's defense is why they want him back, but they feel he can chip in double digit homers as well. Yesterday we heard that the two sides were discussing a multi-year contract.
  • Brennan Boesch, who hit .163/.237/.222 in the second half after a .342/.397/.593 first half, will "have to step up" like any young player who wants a full-time job according to the GM.
  • Dombrowski told Tom Gage of The Detroit News that he wants to add a middle-of-the-order bat, and he would prefer it to be a lefthanded hitter (Twitter link). Cabrera led the league with 32 intentional walks, so finding him some protection is a must. Some notable lefty bats that will be on the free agent market: Adam Dunn, Russell Branyan, Brad Hawpe, and Hideki Matsui, though all of those guys are defensively challenged. 

Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs are next in our arbitration eligibles series…

Soto rebounded in a big way heading up to his first bout with arbitration.  He has an All-Star appearance and the Rookie of the Year award under his belt from 2008, and has a career .268 average with 54 home runs, 196 RBIs, and 153 runs in 378 games.  I think he'll fall short of Russell Martin's first-time reward of $3.9MM, but should easily top $2MM.

Marmol, working from a $2.125MM base, padded his resume with 38 saves, a 2.55 ERA, and a ridiculous 138 strikeouts.  He'll jump past $4MM.  Marshall's at $950K this year and pitched quite well in his first full season as a reliever.

Baker earned $975K this year as a utility infielder and did enough to be tendered a contract.  The Cubs will also want to keep Gorzelanny, working from an $800K salary, in the mix.

Guzman and Hill may be expendable.  Guzman had serious shoulder surgery in March, so the Cubs may not even want to pay him $825K again.  Hill continues to be a credible defensive backup catcher.  His lack of offense would keep his salary down, but the Cubs could look elsewhere.

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