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Free Agent Stock Watch: Matt Guerrier

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Matt Guerrier probably caught a break when the Twins decided not to offer him arbitration earlier this week. Fellow Type As Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor and Grant Balfour all got offers of arbitration and will cost picks, but teams can sign the 32-year-old Guerrier without having to surrender a draft choice. Here's a detailed look at his free agent stock:

The Pros

  • Guerrier led the league in appearances in 2008-09 and pitched in 74 games this past season.
  • He induces more grounders than fly balls.
  • His slider is excellent.
  • Guerrier has a 2.7 K/BB ratio against right-handed hittters in his career. 
  • He has just a 1.5 K/BB ratio against left-handed hitters in his career, but he does induce more groundballs against them (55%).
  • As mentioned earlier, it won't cost a pick to sign Guerrier.

The Cons

  • Defense independent pitching stats like FIP and xFIP suggest Guerrier's 3.17 ERA would have been higher if he had been less lucky in 2010.
  • He posted 5.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 last year. That's not spectacular and both rates were better in 2009.
  • The free agent market is flush with right-handed relievers, so Guerrier won't have much leverage.

The Verdict

The Twins are one of many teams that could use a steady arm like Guerrier's. MLB.com's Kelly Thesier wrote last month that they seem more likely to retain Guerrier and Jesse Crain than their other free agent relievers.

The market has played out favorably for at least one reliever, but Guerrier doesn't have the gaudy numbers that Joaquin Benoit does. Teams will have interest in someone with a history of effectiveness and durability, but I will be surprised if Guerrier earns more than $4-5MM on a one-year deal.

Poll: Which Type B FAs Will Accept Arbitration?

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A total of 21 Type B free agents received offers of arbitration earlier in the week. They now have a few days remaining to decide whether to accept. Javier Vazquez and Trevor Hoffman have reportedly agreed to reject their teams' offers and John Buck and Joaquin Benoit have already signed deals with new teams, but that still leaves 17 players.

When voting on today's poll, keep in mind that teams won't have to forfeit draft picks to sign these Type B free agents, even though they were offered arbitration.

Which Type B free agents will accept arbitration?

Click here to vote and here to view the results.

Yankees Notes: Rivera, Jeter

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It's a winter of turbulence for the Yankees' core four. Here's the latest on the kind of interest two longtime Yankees might draw from other teams:

  • Mariano Rivera will have many teams looking to pry him away from the Bronx if negotiations with the Yankees sour, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.
  • John Harper of the New York Daily News writes that Derek Jeter would look hypocritical if he left the Yankees over a financial dispute after years of saying winning matters more than anything.
  • MLB executives tell George A. King III of the New York Post that they firmly believe Jeter will re-sign with the Yankees. One person pointed out that Jeter needs the Red Sox to bid on him, but cautioned that Boston won’t likely get involved. An AL official named the Orioles, Nationals, Cardinals and Giants as teams that could have interest in the shortstop.

Olney On Dunn, Lee, Greinke, Jeter, Pena

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The Rangers have money to spend and ESPN.com's Buster Olney suggests they could spend it on Adam Dunn. GM Jon Daniels could pursue Carl Crawford or another free agent if Cliff Lee signs elsewhere, but Dunn would provide the Rangers with a formidable power threat. Here are the rest of Olney's rumors:

  • The Rangers' priority is still to sign Lee.
  • Rival executives see Texas as the team that's most likely to acquire Zack Greinke from the Royals. 
  • To create leverage with the Yankees, Derek Jeter will need another club to make a significantly better proposal than the three-year $45MM deal the Yankees are offering. Needless to say, it will be difficult for agent Casey Close to find such an offer for a 36-year-old coming off a down year. 
  • Olney hears that the Nationals are the most enthusiastic team about signing Carlos Pena.

This Date In Transactions History: November 25th

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On this date last year, the White Sox signed Andruw Jones and the Blue Jays locked up John McDonald. Those deals were relatively small, but November 25th has traditionally been a busy day for hot stove action. Here's a quick recap:

  • On this date in 2005, the Phillies sent Jim Thome to the White Sox for a package that included Aaron Rowand and Gio Gonzalez. Thome went on to hit 124 homers in four seasons for the White Sox, but the Phillies didn't miss him too much. Ryan Howard developed into an offensive force and replaced Thome's bat in the middle of Philadelphia's order. The White Sox didn't miss Gonzalez for long – they re-acquired him along with Gavin Floyd for Freddy Garcia one year later. Meanwhile, Rowand turned in one mediocre season and one excellent season before signing a free agent contract with the Giants. 
  • The Phillies-White Sox swap may not have a clear winner, but this 2003 trade certainly does. Seven years ago today, the Cubs sent Hee-Seop Choi and Mike Nannini to the Marlins for Derrek Lee. The Marlins would soon flip Choi to Los Angeles with Brad Penny in the deal that sent Paul Lo Duca, Guillermo Mota and Juan Encarnacion to Florida. The Cubs got years of All-Star production from Lee, who posted a .298/.378/.524 line in seven seasons in Chicago.
  • Back in 1998, the Yankees signed free agent center fielder Bernie Williams to a seven-year $87.5MM deal. The Yankees had been offering $60MM, so Buster Olney wrote in the New York Times that "the team caved… in a stunning reversal." The Red Sox also had interest in Williams, and the Yankees had their sights on Albert Belle as a backup plan until the Orioles offered him $65MM over five years. Ultimately, Williams said "It came down to the fact that I wanted to be a Yankee."

What We Learned: This Week’s Arbitration Offers

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More than half of ranked free agents received offers of arbitration from their teams this week. Clubs offered 35 ranked free agents arbitration (up from 23 last year). Here's what we learned from the flurry of arbitration offers.

The Facts

  • If you haven't done so already, click here for an explanation of how free agent compensation works and click here to check out our arbitration offer tracker.
  • Teams offered 14 of 27 Type A free agents arbitration (52%)
  • Teams offered 21 of 38 Type B free agents arbitration (55%).
  • In total, teams offered 35 of 65 ranked free agents arb (54%).

What This Says About The Market

  • Teams are valuing draft picks highly.
  • Why the extra emphasis on the draft? It's always been a cheap way for teams to stock their systems with talent, but this year is different. The 2011 draft class is strong, so having multiple high picks is a plus. 
  • Since the collective bargaining agreement expires after 2011, there is a chance that there will be spending restrictions for the 2012 draft. That could make next year a big one for teams willing to spend over-slot on top early picks.
  • Teams expect each other to spend aggressively. Players are more likely to turn down arbitration if they get multi-year offers on the open market. John Buck and Joaquin Benoit and others have signed deals that may encourage players to turn down arbitration in search of multi-year contracts.

What To Expect In 2010 And 2011

  • The supplementary first round lasted 18 selections in 2010 and 17 selections in 2009, but the 2011 supplementary round figures to be considerably longer. Some players will accept offers of arbitration and others may sign minor league deals, so there's no way it will last 35 picks. Still, it wouldn't be surprising to see the supplementary round last 25 selections next year.
  • MLB attempted to speed the offseason up, but the recent rush of offers may work against the league's goal. Teams will likely be reluctant to hand over a top pick for Grant Balfour, Frank Francisco or Jason Frasor, but once clubs sign free agents with higher Elias rankings, those relievers will cost a second rounder at most. Those three Type A right-handers will draw interest, but it may take a while for them to sign.

Matching The Team To The Stadium

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Fenway Park has the Green Monster, Coors Field has the humidor, and Minute Maid Park has the Crawford Boxes. Lots of stadiums have quirks or tendencies that favor certain kinds of players and big league executives are well aware of it. MLB GMs say they prefer to have players whose skill sets match their parks, but that's just one consideration when constructing a roster.

The Tigers, for example, play 81 games per season in spacious Comerica Park, so GM Dave Dombrowski says he looks for outfielders who can cover lots of ground whenever possible.

"Fortunately we have an outstanding defensive center fielder now in Austin Jackson," Dombrowski told MLBTR last week in Orlando. "But you know you have to have an outstanding center fielder in Comerica Park who can really go get the ball or it’ll hurt you a great deal."

Jackson, Brennan Boesch and Ryan Raburn will be in the Tigers organization in 2011, but longtime right fielder Magglio Ordonez is a free agent, so the Tigers may look to acquire a corner outfielder via trade or free agency. If they do, Comerica Park will be a factor.

"Even your corner outfielders, it’s hard to get just a guy who is a stationary type guy because our outfield’s big, so we take it into consideration quite a bit,” Dombrowski said.

Like Comerica Park, San Diego's Petco Park has a larger than average outfield. And Padres GM Jed Hoyer acquired former Tigers prospect Cameron Maybin partly because his athleticism should make the club better defensively.

"Having a big station to station team that plays poor defense doesn’t seem like a recipe for success given the ballparks we play in,” Hoyer said.

No team adds or subtracts players purely because of their ballpark and the Padres are no exception. But because of the unbalanced schedule, Hoyer is intent on fielding a team that can cover lots of ground at Petco.

"We play 81 games there, we play nine in AT&T Park, we play nine in Dodger Stadium, the outfield in Coors Field is huge so you start adding it up and the number of games we play in big fields is a lot and we need to be fast," Hoyer said.

Similarly, some teams in homer-friendly ballparks are inclined to acquire pitchers who keep the ball on the ground. Camden Yards has been one of baseball's five friendliest home run environments for four years running, according to ESPN's park factors, and the Orioles front office knows how their home stadium plays. As president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail points out, you can't hit a ground ball out of the park.

"We do pay attention to [ground ball rate], we definitely factor it in," MacPhail said. "All things being equal it’s a positive, but it’s not a sole driver in terms of what we do."

If the O's really did make decisions completely based on ground ball rate, they would not have signed Koji Uehara, who was effective in 2010 despite allowing 2.5 times as many fly balls as ground balls. Instead, park factors are one element of the team's decision-making process.

"If we think we can find the right guy even if he doesn’t have that [ground ball] number that would be ideal, we’ll [consider him],” MacPhail said.

Rakuten Eagles Sign Kaz Matsui

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Kaz Matsui has returned to Japan to join the Rakuten Eagles, according to the Associated Press (via the Denver Post). The Eagles were one of four teams that expressed interest in the switch-hitting infielder, according to reports passed along by Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times (on Twitter).

The 35-year-old finished the season in the Rockies' minor league system after the Astros released him. In seven major league seasons, Matsui posted a .267/.321/.380 line and stole 102 bases (120 attempts). His finest seasons came in 2007-08 when he batted .290/.348/.415. While with the Mets, the light-hitting Matsui homered in his first plate appearance of the 2004, 2005 and 2006 seasons.

Red Sox Interested In Rod Barajas

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With Victor Martinez and John Buck off the market, the Red Sox are turning their attention to "a number of catching contingencies" including free agent Rod Barajas, reports FOXSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi.  Barajas would presumably share time with, or be a veteran backup for, Jarrod Saltalamacchia in Boston.

Barajas hit .240/.284/.447 in 339 plate appearances with the Mets and Dodgers in 2010, including a .939 OPS with Los Angeles after he was claimed on waivers in late August.  The 35-year-old gained some AL East experience playing in Toronto in 2008-09 and is known for a strong throwing arm behind the plate.  Barajas has thrown out 32% of baserunners trying to steal on him over his 12-year career, though as Morosi pointed out, that percentage dipped to 15% last season. 

Boston tried to acquire Barajas from the Mets in July to fill in for their many injured catchers.  Barajas' solid power numbers should earn him a bigger contract than the $500K guaranteed deal he signed with New York last February, though he would still be a relatively cheap pickup for the Sox.

Minor League Transactions

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Here's a look at some notable names involved in minor transactions between November 16-21, as compiled by Baseball America's Matt Eddy…

  • Left-hander Scott Rice signed with the Cubs.  Rice was picked 44th overall by Baltimore in the 1999 amateur draft, but has yet to get a cup of coffee in the majors after appearing in 377 minor league games.
  • Right-hander Jon Huber re-signed with the Dodgers.  Huber last pitched in the majors in 2007 with Seattle.
  • Veteran right-hander Scott Patterson re-signed with the Mariners.  Patterson has four major league games to his name, with the Padres and Yankees in 2008.
  • The Marlins re-signed Vinny Rottino, and also signed relievers Victor Garate and Frank Mata.  The Fish also removed right-hander Brett Sinkbeil from their 40-man roster.  Sinkbeil was Florida's first-round pick (19th overall) in the 2006 draft, drafted ahead of such notables as Daniel Bard, Joba Chamberlain and Chris Perez.
  • Former Tigers outfielder Jeff Frazier signed with the Nationals.  Frazier made his major league debut with Detroit last season, posting a .511 OPS in 24 plate appearances.
  • The Orioles removed right-hander Armando Gabino and first baseman Rhyne Hughes from their 40-man roster, and Gabino elected free agency.  Gabino has a 15.12 ERA in 8 1/3 major league innings with Baltimore and Minnesota.  Hughes posted a .530 OPS in 51 plate appearances for the O's last season.
  • Pittsburgh released a number of minor leaguers, including a few notable international players.  Taiwanese prospects Sheng-Cin Hong and Chih-Wei Hsu, both signed by the Pirates at the start of the 2009 international signing period, have been let go by the club.  Also released was Dinesh Patel, signed by Pittsburgh in 2008 after being a finalist on the Indian reality show "Million Dollar Arm." Patel, a cricket player, had never pitched or even picked up a baseball before appearing on the show.
  • The Rangers reinstated Nathan Haynes from the inactive list and released the outfielder.  Haynes hasn't actually played since 2008.  Drafted 32nd overall by Oakland in the 1997 amateur draft, Haynes never caught on in the bigs, managing 95 career plate appearances with the Angels and Rays in 2007-08.
  • Right-hander Chad Reineke, best known for being traded straight-up for Randy Wolf in 2008, has re-signed with the Reds.
  • The Tigers outrighted Fu-Te Ni to Triple-A and removed the Taiwanese southpaw from their 40-man roster.  Ni had an impressive 2.61 ERA in 36 outings in his 2009 rookie season, but his ERA ballooned to 6.65 in 22 games with Detroit last year.

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