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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Broxton, Zambrano, Pujols

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On this date 15 years ago, the Yankees and Rockies became the first Wild Card teams in baseball history. Both were eliminated in the League Championship Series however, with the Mariners and Braves doing the honors. Nine Wild Card teams have reached the World Series since, with the Marlins (1997 & 2003), Angels (2002), and Red Sox (2004) taking home championships.

A few days before the 2010 postseason begins, let's look around the baseball blogosphere…

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Potential Destinations For Mark Reynolds

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Mark Reynolds can hit the ball out of the park, but he's a leading reason why the D'Backs are striking out so much. No MLB team has ever whiffed more times than the 2010 D'Backs and Reynolds, who leads the National League in Ks for the third consecutive season, is the main culprit. He's tied for fifth in the league with 32 homers, but that .198/.321/.434 line looks thin.

The simplest way for GM Kevin Towers to reduce Arizona's 2011 strikeout total would be to trade Reynolds. The third baseman is under contract for two more years and will earn $13MM or more before his deal expires. Reynolds has been a below average defender for the past four seasons (according to UZR) and he doesn't have much experience at any position but third base.

It would have been considerably easier to trade Reynolds a year ago, when he was coming off a 44 homer season and a more respectable batting average. If the D'Backs shop him this winter, they may have to wait for some of the teams in search of a third baseman to determine where they fit in the Adrian Beltre sweepstakes.

For example, it's hard to imagine the Red Sox and Angels trading for Reynolds before Beltre signs. The White Sox could also have interest, but Chicago has Dayan Viciedo and Mark Teahen, so a Reynolds acquisition seems unlikely. Toronto may non-tender Edwin Encarnacion, but the Blue Jays already have their share of all-or-nothing hitters, so Reynolds doesn't seem like a fit.

The Tigers (16th in MLB in homers) and Padres (22nd) could use power and could create room at third for Reynolds. The A's rank 29th in baseball in homers, will be looking for power this offseason and may non-tender Kevin Kouzmanoff, so they may be the best fit of all. Arizona thought about offering Reynolds to Oakland before Towers took over, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the sides spark up talks. 

Rockies Interested In Martinez, Jackson

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Rockies manager Jim Tracy told Troy Renck of the Denver Post that the Rockies want to add an “impact bat” this offseason. According to Renck, Colorado has interest in Conor Jackson and will target Victor Martinez if the Red Sox don’t lock him up.

Jackson, a non-tender candidate, can play first base or left field; Martinez can catch and play first. The Rockies appear to want a right-handed complement to Todd Helton and Martinez, a switch hitter, would satisfy that requirement. But Colorado has Chris Iannetta under contract and a mutual option for Miguel Olivo's services, so the team isn't desperate for catching help.

Adding an outfielder is a priority for the Rockies, according to Renck. Seth Smith isn’t conisdered an everyday player because of his late summer struggles, so the Rockies will consider free agent outfielders and trades.

The Rockies already have two electrifying hitters: Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki, but Tulo told Renck that he’d like to see some of the organization’s young players improve so the Rockies can reach the postseason in 2011.

Beltre’s Player Option Doubles

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Adrian Beltre has now batted 640 times this season, so the value of his 2011 player option doubled from $5MM to $10MM. But the third baseman will probably have the chance to earn considerably more than $10MM as a free agent this offseason, so the value of his player option doesn't matter a whole lot.

“It doesn’t mean anything to me,” Beltre told Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. “It’s a testament that I was able to stay healthy, and be in the lineup almost every day. But that’s it.”

Beltre, 31, already has 28 homers and a American League-best 49 doubles. He has combined his strong defensive play with a .321/.365/.553 batting line and seems primed for another big free agent payday. The Mariners signed Beltre to a five-year $64MM deal after the 2004 season.

Odds & Ends: Darvish, Feliciano, D’Backs, Blue Jays

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As the Padres face a big uphill battle in San Francisco this weekend, we look at some news items….

Padres Could Put Bell Back On Trade Market

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The Padres' late-season collapse has no doubt been tough to take for San Diego fans, but it could get even tougher when and if the Friars revert to their cost-effective ways.  San Diego's unexpected playoff push extended Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell's stays with the club, and while the Padres have no ready answer to replace Gonzalez at first base, their deep bullpen may lead to Bell's departure.

ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that San Diego "will at least consider" dealing Bell and installing Mike Adams as the closer going into 2011.  Bell agreed to a one-year, $4MM deal last winter to avoid arbitration, but Olney predicts that Bell could earn in the range of $6-$8MM next year, when he hits arbitration for the final time.  The Padres have the payroll space to pay Bell that much if they wanted to (as Cot's Baseball Contracts notes, the Friars have a measly $1.1MM committed to players for next season), but that type of outlay on a closer is a luxury that small-market teams usually can't afford.

Adams, meanwhile, made $1MM this season and is entering his second arbitration year.  After posting a 1.84 ERA, a 10.2 K/9 rate and a 3.78 K/BB ratio over his three years in San Diego, Adams is sure to earn a nice raise, but it will still fall below Bell's $4MM earnings from this season.  If the Pads were to offer Adams a two-year contract worth $5.5MM, Adams would probably accept to gain a bit of security in case he struggles finishing games.  MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith recently looked at how Adams' contract situation compared to that of Oakland's Michael Wuertz.

Bell is no stranger to the trade market.  His name popped up in multiple rumors when Joe Nathan was injured last spring and was even whispered to be on the block at the July trade deadline when San Diego was in first place.  If the Padres shop him around again this winter, the White Sox, Diamondbacks, Angels and Rays are a few of the clubs who could be looking for a proven closer.  The Braves and Cardinals could also be added to that list if Billy Wagner and Ryan Franklin both retire.

Huntington Non-Committal About Russell’s Future With Bucs

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It's not exactly a ringing vote of confidence when a GM refers to the issue of his manager returning next season as "the million-dollar question" (Twitter link) but that's just how Pirates general manager Neal Huntington referred to the club's situation with manager John Russell.  Speaking with Jim Bowden of FOXSports.com, Huntington said that the club would evaluate their major league staff after the season and didn't seem to hint as to whether or not Russell would be back in 2011 (both Twitter links).

Both Huntington and Russell had their contracts extended last winter, though there were some rumors that Russell could be fired back in June.  Russell has a 185-296 record in three years as Pittsburgh's manager, and while it's hard to entirely blame Russell given the team's lack of talent, the fact that the Pirates have the league's worst record this season doesn't help his case.  Russell was Huntington's first hire as the team's manager back in November 2007.

Should Pittsburgh decide to go in a different direction, they will be the seventh club (after the Blue Jays, Braves, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mariners and Marlins) looking for a new manager this winter.  This number could rise if Milwaukee declines to pick up Ken Macha's option, the Mets fire Jerry Manuel, Tony La Russa leaves St. Louis and Joe Girardi doesn't re-sign with the Yankees.  One potential managerial opening is all but officially closed with Dusty Baker on the verge of re-signing with the Reds.

Chicago Notes: Konerko, Pierzynski, Zambrano

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Both the Cubs and White Sox are playing out the string on 2010, but long-time stars from both clubs could be on the move this winter.  Here's an update on a few of them…

  • Paul Konerko talked to the media (including Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune) on Thursday about his pending free agency.  Konerko was non-committal about the idea of taking a hometown discount to remain in Chicago and said the White Sox have to make some organizational upgrades to match the division-winning Twins.  He was open to the idea of being a full-time DH, though he still wants to play first base.
  • Gonzales also notes that "there has been an assumption" that Konerko will go to the Angels to play for old colleague Mike Scioscia or to the Diamondbacks, as he lives in Arizona during the offseason.
  • Another pending White Sox free agent, A.J. Pierzynski, is more open to a return, writes Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com.  Padilla thinks Pierzynski could be brought back on a one-year, $4.5MM contract to give Chicago more time to polish Tyler Flowers in the minors, but you'd think Pierzynski could find a multi-year deal elsewhere.
  • Carlos Zambrano's red-hot second half (he's 7-0 with a 1.46 ERA in 10 post-All Star break starts) has been "the perfect showcase" to drum up a trade market for the right-hander, says CBSSports.com's Scott Miller.  As Miller points out, the Cubs' quest to deal Zambrano won't be easy given Zambrano's contract, but the team may be helped by the fact that the free agent starting market is short of ace-caliber pitchers aside from Cliff Lee.

Epstein On Injuries, Bullpen, Wood

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Red Sox GM Theo Epstein appeared on WEEI's Dale & Holley radio show on Thursday morning to recap and discuss Boston's 2010 season.  WEEI.com's Jerry Spar and ESPNBoston.com both have partial transcripts of the interview, and here are some of the hot stove highlights…

  • In part due to the multitude of injuries that befell the club, Epstein admitted that the team's pitching and defense (the offseason focus on which led to the signings of John Lackey and Mike Cameron) were actually Boston's biggest weaknesses in 2010.
  • The Red Sox will "have to completely fix the bullpen" in the winter.  Epstein said that he pursued several midseason trades for relievers: "We were aggressive with our prospect proposals, and those guys weren’t moved. So, yeah, I would have loved to have made a trade for a reliever. I feel bad, I feel like we didn’t get it done."
  • In regards to three specific bullpen targets (Matt Capps, Brian Fuentes and Kerry Wood), Epstein said that Washington wanted Daniel Bard for Capps, the Twins were able to make a move for Fuentes first due to a higher waiver position, and the Yankees "were willing to take on just a little bit more of [Wood's] salary."
  • Epstein admitted that the team can improve the flow of communication between the medical staff and the players.  He didn't comment on whether or not the Red Sox were looking to make some changes to their training staff in the wake of their injury-filled season.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jim Thome

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Jim Thome needs 15 more plate appearances to reach 350 for the season, which would unlock an $0.1MM incentive bonus within the one-year, $1.5MM deal he signed with Minnesota in the offseason.  Thome has already hit two such plate appearance clauses, boosting his season total up to $1.7MM — still a huge bargain for the Twins given Thome's team-leading 25 homers and .631 slugging percentage.

The future Hall-of-Famer said he might retire a champion if the Twins win the World Series, but in all likelihood, Thome will be back in 2011 to gun for the 600-homer club.  (Thome enters Thursday's action with 589 career long balls.)  With so many teams looking for offense this winter, here's what interested clubs should be considering when looking at Thome.

The Pros

  • Thome has a whopping 1.155 OPS against right-handed pitching.
  • Though he'll easily command more than he did in 2010, Thome is still a bargain compared to pricier DH options on the market like Adam Dunn, David Ortiz or Manny Ramirez.
  • He just missed out on Type B free agent status, so a team can sign Thome without draft pick compensation.
  • Thome is universally regarded as one of the most well-liked and well-respected players in the game.  This intangible factor shouldn't be ignored when a general manager is deciding whom to bring into a clubhouse, especially in the case of a young team looking for a veteran presence.

The Cons

  • Thome hasn't been anything but a DH or a pinch-hitter for the last three seasons.  His lack of a defensive position will limit his market to American League teams.
  • The 40-year-old Thome has battled nagging thigh and back injuries this season and can't be counted on to play every day.
  • Along those same lines, Thome's slash line against lefties this season (in 91 PA) is .238/.297/.476.  Thome will need to be paired with a right-handed hitting DH who can pick up the slack against southpaws.

The Verdict

It seems another one-year contract is in the cards for Thome, who probably wouldn't have it any other way given that he's toying with retirement.  Despite the fact that he's only suited for a platoon DH role, Thome will probably be able to get a deal worth as much as $5MM.  Such a total would still be a steal if Thome can replicate his 2010 campaign.

Which AL teams could take an interest in Thome?  Minnesota is the first choice; Thome has become a folk hero at Target Field due to his role in the Twins' AL Central title and the club already has interest in bringing him back.

Aside from the Twins, the Red Sox (if they don't pick up Ortiz's 2011 option), Tigers, Angels, Rays and White Sox could also give Thome a look.  Chicago pursuing Thome would be rather ironic, since it was the team's failure to pursue Thome last winter and subsequent lack of production from the DH role that was allegedly one of the factors in the Ozzie Guillen/Kenny Williams tension over the summer.  New York might also have an interest; if the Yankees stick to their plan of using the designated hitter spot to give Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada a break from playing the field, they could DH those two against lefties and sign Thome to start against righties. 

Baltimore, Oakland, Seattle and (if Adam Lind moves to first base) Toronto are teams who are looking for offense and might have an opening at DH.  If Thome is still looking for his first World Series title, however, he's more likely to sign with a contender.

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