Stark On Rasmus, Jeter, Gonzalez, Morgan
If the Cardinals put Colby Rasmus on the trade market, they would “only get 60 or 70 cents on the dollar,” according to one MLB executive who spoke to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. Here’s a detailed look at potential suitors for Rasmus, and here are the rest of Stark’s rumors:
- Derek Jeter and agent Casey Close understand that the Yankees aren’t going to offer an embarrassingly low contract this winter. As Stark points out, the Yankees offered Jorge Posada a four-year deal heading into the season in which he turned 37. Posada was coming off of an MVP-caliber season, so the comparison only works to a point, but as many reporters have pointed out this week, Jeter is going nowhere and the Yankees aren’t going to low-ball him.
- Adrian Gonzalez probably won’t be on the trade market this winter, according to clubs that have spoken to the Padres. They’ll try to contend in 2011 and consider trading Gonzalez if they aren’t in contention next summer.
- Two scouts who cover the Nationals say they expect the team to shop Nyjer Morgan this winter. One of the scouts said there’s a “non-existent” chance that Washington keeps him.
The Cubs’ 2011 Rotation
Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, Tom Gorzelanny and Carlos Silva may not be utterly dominant, but they will provide the Cubs with certainty this winter and quality innings next season. If healthy, those four starters should account for most of Chicago's rotation in 2011. They won't be enough, of course. The Cubs will need a fifth starter, too and while Carlos Zambrano could continue improving and fill that role, it may not be that simple.
The Cubs will likely consider trading Zambrano but their offseason doesn’t hinge on making a trade, like it did a year ago when they flipped Milton Bradley for Silva. Zambrano's season reached a low point when he got into a dugout shouting match with Derrek Lee, but he has pitched well since returning from the restricted list. He has a 2.25 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning since the end of July, but is walking more batters than usual, which is something, considering Zambrano has a career walk rate of 4.1 BB/9.
If the Cubs hold onto Zambrano, they probably won’t be in the market for starting pitching, since they have other internal candidates who could fill in. But if they trade Zambrano – and it wouldn't be easy given the $17.875MM he makes in 2011 – the Cubs would have an empty rotation spot and could consider signing a free agent starter. The caliber of that starter might depend on the savings from a Zambrano deal.
But even if GM Jim Hendry doesn't like the options on the free agent market, he has a number of potential starters in the organization. Jeff Samardzija and Casey Coleman could contend for a rotation spot if one opens because of a trade or injury. Samardzija has a high walk rate in Triple A this year (5.4 BB/9), so he'd probably have to show the Cubs that he can limit free passes. Coleman has posted a 5.81 ERA in the majors and has walked more batters than he has struck out, but his Triple A numbers were much better (4.07 ERA, 2.7 BB/9). Baseball America noted before the season that Coleman has a good feel for pitching, which isn't surprising since his father and grandfather pitched in the majors leagues before him.
Sean Marshall and Andrew Cashner are both contributing out of the ‘pen now, but the Cubs could stretch them out if necessary. Marshall has been one of the National League's best left-handed relievers this year, but he started games regularly from 2006-09. Cashner's used to starting, too; he had a 2.05 ERA as a starter in the upper minors this year before the Cubs called him up.
Thomas Diamond started three games for the Cubs this year, but has struggled to limit walks. The former first rounder has faced just over 100 batters in his major league career, so it seems more likely that he'll pitch in the minors or the bullpen for now. Chris Archer, who doesn’t turn 22 until later this month, posted a 2.34 ERA with 9.4 K/9 in the minors this year, but he has appeared in just 13 AA games, so he will need time to develop.
Remember that, in all likelihood, the Cubs will have a new manager by Spring Training. That means the fifth spot in the rotation depends not only on the team's offseason moves, but on their new manager's preferences. It's too early to predict how it will all unfold, but we can safely say that Zambrano appears to be the leading candidate to be the team's fifth starter. If the Cubs trade him, they may consider free agents or turn to internal options like Coleman, Samardzija, Marshall and Cashner.
Elias Rankings Update
After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2009-10 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics. Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none. Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2009 season running through September 7th, 2010. The Google spreadsheet below has separate tabs for each position group. You can also go directly to the Google spreadsheet here. Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed.
Poll: Best Minor League Deal
Every year, teams supplement their rosters by signing players to minor league deals. It's a way for teams to make low-risk investments in players who generally don't have much leverage. But finding a Joaquin Benoit, Livan Hernandez, or R.A. Dickey in the bargain bin can make a massive difference. Some players, like Austin Kearns, Jim Edmonds and D.J. Carrasco, get flipped in mid-summer trades. Others, like Pat Burrell and Chris Denorfia contribute on playoff contenders. But those aren't the only players who signed memorable minor league deals since last season ended…
Who was the best minor league signing of the year?
Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.
Odds & Ends: Crawford, Yankees, Angels, Loux
Wednesday night links, as Daniel Hudson attempts to keep his NL ERA under 2.00….
- David Ortiz tells Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that he thinks Carl Crawford will sign with the Yankees or Angels this winter.
- Joe Girardi doesn't expect Alfredo Aceves or Damaso Marte to be back with the Yankees in 2010, tweets MLB.com's Bryan Hoch.
- The chances of lifetime Angel Scot Shields returning to the club's bullpen next season are "less than remote," says Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. Whether Scott Kazmir will be a part of the Angels' rotation also remains to be seen, DiGiovanna writes in a separate piece. MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith examined the team's 2011 rotation yesterday.
- The Astros are looking into the possibility of signing Barret Loux, but haven't made an offer yet, according to Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter).
- Carlos Guillen would like to play second base for the Tigers next season, write Jason Beck and Alex DiFilippo of MLB.com.
- Jack Moore of Fangraphs looks into the outstanding numbers Geovany Soto is putting up this year. Earlier today, we looked at Soto as a possible candidate for an extension.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Carlos Pena
Although he has remained the starting first baseman for the second-best team in baseball, Carlos Pena hasn't enjoyed one of his more productive seasons. Flirting with the Mendoza Line for much of the year, Pena has hit .203/.331/.425 after posting a slash line of .252/.382/.553 over his first three seasons with the Rays. The decline in production couldn't come at a worse time for the 32-year-old; not only is he being relied upon by a World Series contender, but he also faces free agency this winter.
The season hasn't been a total disaster for Pena. Although UZR doesn't necessarily back it up, he's still regarded as a strong defensive first baseman. At the plate, his walk and home run rates have stayed in line with his career ratios, and a career-low .223 BABIP suggests that he's been a little unlucky. However, he's also hitting fewer line drives (14.7%) and more ground balls (45.3%) than he ever has in his time with Tampa. Given his uninspiring numbers and the fact that he's part of an overcrowded group of free agent first basemen, Pena won't have nearly the leverage this winter that he and agent Scott Boras would like.
Of course, Pena also isn't the only free-agent-to-be at first base who has seen his production slip this season. Lance Berkman and Derrek Lee have struggled as well, while Troy Glaus, Jorge Cantu, and Lyle Overbay have all suffered through horrid slumps that put a dent in their overall numbers. Players like Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Aubrey Huff and Adam LaRoche have positioned themselves well heading into free agency, but the falling stocks of Berkman and Lee should work in Pena's favor.
Pena's situation heading into the offseason is somewhat reminiscent of Adrian Beltre's a year ago. Another Boras client, Beltre was coming off a disappointing, injury-marred 2009 campaign that saw him post a .683 OPS in 477 plate appearances. Because of his defensive prowess and his past offensive production, Beltre was still presented with multi-year offers before eventually accepting a one-year, $10MM deal with the Red Sox. Beltre plays a more premium infield position and was part of a thinner third base market, so Pena may not receive the same kind of offers, but Boras could explore a similarly incentive-laden one-year contract. If the first baseman rebounds, like Beltre has, he may earn himself a bigger payday down the road.
Currently, Pena projects as a Type B free agent, which means signing him won't cost a draft pick. Even if he were a Type A, the Rays would be unlikely to offer arbitration; Pena is making $10.125MM this year and the team plans to reduce payroll in 2011, so they wouldn't want the first baseman to accept an arbitration offer. With no compensation picks attached to him on the open market, Pena could get a multi-year deal from a club like the Nationals, who reportedly "love" him. It wouldn't be a surprise, however, to see the Boras client sign a one-year contract with an eye on improving his stock for 2012.
Martinez Turned Down Red Sox’ Offer, Postpones Extension Talks
Victor Martinez rejected the two-year extension offer he received from the Red Sox, writes Daniel Barbarisi of the Providence Journal. Martinez's agent, Alan Nero, tells Barbarisi that the team's proposal, which was made several weeks ago, was a one-time offer and that there will be no more negotiations until after the season.
As Martinez suggested when he discussed Boston's extension offer, the 31-year-old is looking for a long-term guarantee rather than just one or two years:
"More than anything else, when a team comes to you and says we'll give you a one year deal or a two year deal, they're not telling you that they see you as a long-term piece of their organization," said Nero. "Every player seeks that. Victor, at this point, is looking to be with a team for the rest of his career. It's not a matter of security, it's a matter of trying to get comfortable in one place."
The two sides had initially agreed to wait until after the season to discuss V-Mart's future in Boston, but the team approached the catcher with the two-year offer a few weeks ago. Although the contract was not what Martinez was looking for, Nero says there are "no hard feelings" regarding the proposal and that he expects the Red Sox to have "every chance" to sign his client this winter.
Odds & Ends: Cubs, Varitek, Wakefield, Hoffman
Links for Wednesday, 50 years after the Milwaukee Braves signed Joe Torre as an amateur free agent…
- The Cubs intend to interview Ryne Sandberg and others for their managerial opening within ten days, according to Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says baseball's revenue sharing system is not broken, but he would like to see MLB adopt a "laser-like focus" on developing a fairer system.
- Jason Varitek told reporters, including Alex Speier of WEEI that he intends to keep playing after next season.
- Tim Wakefield's base salary for 2011 rises from $1.5MM to $2MM if he finishes 3.1 innings tonight, as Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald points out on Twitter.
- Trevor Hoffman told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that he'll wait until after the season to decide whether to retire (Twitter link).
- Hisanori Takahashi told Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com that he likes New York and wants to continue playing major league baseball. He just doesn't know if he’ll re-sign with the Mets this winter.
Heyman On Jeter, Ortiz, Minaya
It’s a foregone conclusion that the Yankees will re-sign Derek Jeter, but as Jon Heyman of SI.com points out, “the Yankees' business is so good it doesn't have to look at things the normal way.” That means the Bronx Bombers can afford to pay franchise icons like Jeter for past greatness, even if the offensive numbers aren't there anymore. Here’s the latest on Jeter, plus other notes from around the league:
- One executive told Heyman that he can see the Yankees offering $45-50MM over three years. That fits in with what MLBTR readers predicted earlier in the week. As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs noted, Chipper Jones’ most recent deal was for $42MM over three years.
- Some executives can see the Red Sox trying to lock David Ortiz up for $18-20MM or so over two years instead of exercising his $12.5MM option for 2011. Ortiz has said he’d like to stay in Boston, but he wants a multi-year deal.
- Heyman says it’s still “extremely likely” that the Mets re-assign Omar Minaya. In other words, he may not be the GM for much longer.
The Pirates’ 2011 Rotation
Many of the Pirates' most exciting pitchers are still in the minor leagues, so the team's 2011 rotation does not project to be strong, relative to the rest of the league. Within a few years, Rudy Owens, Jeff Locke, Bryan Morris, Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie and Luis Heredia could join Brad Lincoln in a potentially loaded rotation, but that isn't about to happen immediately.
For now, the Pirates have a less electrifying group, including non-tender candidate Zach Duke, the struggling Paul Maholm and a number of organizational arms that probably won't have major roles on the next great Pirates team. But it's not yet time to look too far ahead: here's how Pittsburgh's 2011 rotation will look.
Zach Duke has been a mainstay in the team's rotation for years, but he has posted a 5.24 ERA with 5.6 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 heading into his final season of arbitration. He earns $4.3MM this year and could make $5MM or so in 2011, so Duke is a non-tender candidate. The lefty has been unlucky, so Pittsburgh could keep him around and hope for a rebound season.
Paul Maholm has a 5.43 ERA with 4.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 and would be another non-tender candidate were it not for the extension he signed in 2009. Mahom will earn $5.75MM next year and will likely start for the Pirates.
Jeff Karstens and Ross Ohlendorf, two products of the 2008 deal that sent Xavier Nady to the Bronx, are both injured, but both have turned in respectable seasons. Karstens has a 4.88 ERA in 19 starts with just 2.0 BB/9 and Ohlendorf had a 4.07 ERA before hitting the disabled list with a shoulder strain. Karstens will go to arbitration and Ohlendorf, a possible super two, may qualify as well. Both will definitely be cheap in 2011 and will presumably have the chance to make the team's rotation.
Brad Lincoln and James McDonald have both had up and down seasons. The Pirates let Lincoln start the year in the minors, where he pitched to a 4.12 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. He struggled to match that production in the majors and may stay in the 'pen for the remainder of the month. Lincoln has the upside of a number 2-3 starter, according to Baseball America, but the Pirates have been cautious with the right-hander so far, so they're probably not going to rush him into the major league rotation next spring.
McDonald has pitched inconsistently since the Pirates acquired him for Octavio Dotel, mixing three dominant starts with as many duds. He's striking out lots of hitters (8.7 K/9) and has a 4.17 ERA as a Pirate, but the 25-year-old will likely have to earn a rotation spot out of spring training if he is to start.
Charlie Morton, Brian Burres, minor leaguer Michael Crotta and Daniel McCutchen (yet another product of the apparently successful Nady deal) provide the Pirates with depth arms, but limited upside. Donnie Veal would have been in this group, too, but the left-hander recently underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss most of 2011.
The Pirates have every reason to look forward to recent additions Taillon, Allie and Heredia, but Allie is the oldest of the three and he's just 19. Owens, Locke and Morris all reached AA Altoona this year and posted excellent overall numbers. They're closer to major league success than, say, Heredia, but it's far too soon to expect them in the major league rotation.
Instead, the Pirates will probably call on Duke, Maholm, Ohlendorf, Karstens, McDonald and others next year. GM Neal Huntington will, in all likelihood, pass on Cliff Lee and other elite pitchers and look into signing a dependable free agent arm. Club president Frank Coonelly is frustrated by the current edition of the Pirates and the team doesn't have many guarantees for next year. If a reliable pitcher like Dave Bush, Jake Westbrook or Kevin Millwood became available at the right price, the Pirates could bolster their rotation depth through free agency.