Geovany Soto: Extension Candidate
Geovany Soto is having a fantastic offensive season and, as Joe Mauer, Kurt Suzuki, Chris Iannetta and many others will tell you, catchers who can hit are sometimes offered extensions once they qualify for arbitration. Soto will head to arbitration for the first time this winter and barring a September slide, he'll be coming off a big season.
The 27-year-old ranks among the top five catchers in baseball when it comes to batting average, on base percentage and home runs. He has hit well before, but even when he won the NL Rookie of the Year in 2008 his batting line wasn't as high as it is now (.284/.399/.521).
The Cubs may prefer to go one year at a time with Soto, but they could opt for cost certainty and lock their catcher up. As the table below shows, both Soto's rate stats and his cumulative stats fall between the numbers Brian McCann and Chris Iannetta had going into their first arbitration season.
Both McCann and Iannetta signed extensions covering their arbitration years, so they are reasonable comparables for Soto. McCann ($15.5MM) earns more than Iannetta ($7.85MM) for his three seasons of arbitration eligibility and it seems likely that Soto will earn somewhere in between if the Cubs lock him up. McCann signed his deal early in his career, when he had less leverage, so it seems likely that Soto could command nearly as much for his three arbitration seasons as McCann got for his, especially given Soto's massive 2010 numbers. Perhaps the Cubs could buy Soto's 2011-13 seasons for $14MM or so.
Jonny Gomes’ 2011 Option
Jonny Gomes has already set career highs in games (126), plate appearances (482), runs (63), hits (112), doubles (22) and RBI (77). Reds manager Dusty Baker has been calling on Gomes more than ever and the left fielder has seen his slash line dip, possibly because he's facing more right-handed pitching than usual. Gomes' .262/.328/.436 line is about average, but his power has dropped off this year, especially in the second half.
The Reds can retain him for $1.75MM in 2011 or buy him out for $200K. They don't have the option of turning the option down and trying to re-sign him more cheaply through arbitration; Cincinnati must release the 29-year-old if they turn his option down. The Reds could sign Gomes after releasing him, but all 30 teams would be able to make bids, too.
Despite Gomes' struggles against right-handed pitching and less-than-brilliant defense (he posted negative UZRs every year from 2005-10), the Reds will likely have some interest in retaining him for a net cost of $1.55MM. However, they non-tendered him last winter after a season in which he hit 20 homers and posted an .879 OPS, so history suggests they aren't afraid of letting Gomes hit the open market. What do you think the Reds will do? Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.
Red Sox Offer Martinez Two-Year Deal
Victor Martinez told Rob Bradford of WEEI that the Red Sox offered him a two-year extension. The sides had talked about a similar contract, but the offer surprised the Boston catcher, who would prefer a longer-term deal.
“I don’t really have to do it,” Martinez said. “They came with something, and that might just be where the negotiations start. But I don’t see myself signing a two-year deal. I’m young enough. I work hard and I give it all. I just want to be treated fair.”
Martinez, 31, says he wants to play for five or six more years and sees himself as a catcher, rather than a first baseman or designated hitter. He prefers catching, but Martinez says his top priority will be to join a club that can compete for a World Series title.
Many teams will likely have interest in Martinez if he hits the open market, since he will arguably be the best offensive catcher available. So far in 2010, he has 14 homers and a .292/.339/.466 batting line. His .804 OPS beats potential free agent catchers A.J. Pierzynski, John Buck and Rod Barajas.
Martinez currently projects as a Type A free agent, which means the Red Sox would obtain two top picks if the catcher turns down arbitration to sign elsewhere. V-Mart says he wants to sign long term, so he'd surely turn arbitration down, but that would leave the Red Sox without a catcher. Jason Varitek, also a free agent after the season, plans to continue playing, but it would be a surprise to see Boston hand the veteran a starting job.
Angels Release Robb Quinlan
The Angels released Robb Quinlan, according to MLB.com’s Evan Drellich. Quinlan, 33, spent part of eight seasons with the Angels as a utility player, though he batted just 36 times in the big leagues this year. He spent most of the season at Triple A, where he posted a .258/.336/.305 line in 144 plate appearances.
Quinlan drew interest from the Twins, Rockies and Dodgers last winter, before signing with the Angels in February. As usual, he played all four corner positions in 2010. Earlier today, the Angels released another veteran role player, Brian Stokes.
Jeff Weaver Wants To Pitch At Least One More Season
Jeff Weaver told Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times that he wants to pitch at least one more season, and would prefer to do so with the Dodgers (Twitter link). The 34-year-old has spent the last two seasons with the team, his second stint in Chavez Ravine.
Working exclusively in relief, Weaver's posted unimpressive totals of 5.4 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 to go along with his 4.99 ERA in 39.2 innings this year. He was much more effective in 2008, when he compiled a 3.65 ERA on the strength of 7.3 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 79 innings as a swingman. It's worth noting that his fastball velocity has dipped quite a bit over the last few seasons.
Weaver has had to settle for minor league contracts in each of the last three offseasons, and there's no reason to expect that to change next year. He will earn $800K total in 2010, though his career earnings top $40MM.
Odds & Ends: Kuroda, Dunn, Wang, Sabathia, Choo
Links for Tuesday, exactly one year after the Rockies released Russ Ortiz. It was the third time a major league organization released Ortiz in 2009 and a preview of April 2010 when the Dodgers released him. Here are today's links…
- Hiroki Kuroda denied to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times that he intends to play in Japan next season. "I really haven't decided anything," the right-hander said (Twitter links)
- MLB.com's Bill Ladson reports that there has been no progress on a contract extension for Adam Dunn. The first baseman told reporters recently that he "assumes" he will finish the year without a deal in place.
- Within the same piece, Ladson mentions that Chien-Ming Wang will not pitch this year because of shoulder weakness. The Nationals signed Wang to a one year deal worth $2MM last winter and control him as an arbitration eligible player next year.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman told Jack Curry of the YES Network that C.C. Sabathia has done "exactly what they hoped for" when they signed him last offseason, and that includes his presence in the clubhouse (Twitter links).
- Shin-Soo Choo will likely be able to avoid military service in South Korea if he helps his country win a gold medal in baseball at the Asian Games this November, as MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince explains.
- Agent Scott Boras told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer that Choo may sign an extension with the Indians this offseason. "Things have a way of working out with the good players," Boras said.
- Baseball America named Jeremy Hellickson its 2010 minor league player of the year.
- It's looking like the Marlins will sign Ricky Nolasco to a one year deal through arbitration, instead of negotiating a long-term deal, according to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
- Arizona president Derrick Hall likes former Padres GM Kevin Towers and interim D'Backs manager Kirk Gibson, according to Ed Price of AOL FanHouse. The D'Backs haven't had a permanent GM or manager since firing Josh Byrnes and A.J. Hinch earlier in the summer.
Non-Tender Candidate: Willy Aybar
The Rays are a team built around versatility, and one of their most flexible pieces in recent years has been infielder Willy Aybar. The 27-year-old has spent the majority of his big league time at third base, but can also handle spot duty at first and second.
Aybar isn't a traditional non-tender candidate in that the decision is simply whether or not to offer him a contract for next season. The Rays signed him to a two-year deal worth $2.6MM guaranteed before 2009, and that deal includes $2.2MM club option for 2011 that can instead be bought out for $275K. Aybar still has two more years of arbitration eligibility left ahead of him, so Tampa could decline the option and then non-tender him for a total savings of $1.925M.
A bargain in 2008 and 2009, Aybar hit .253/.329/.413 with double digit homers in each of those two seasons while playing no fewer than three positions. This year's been a different story, however, as he's fallen off to .235/.309/.348 with just five homers while spending the most of his time as a designated hitter against lefthanded pitching despite hitting just .252/.299/.390 off southpaws. Aybar's strikeout rate has risen for the third straight year as well.
Tampa is facing a payroll reduction next season, so parting ways with the increasingly unproductive Aybar could be one way to cut costs. That said, it's time to vote. Click here to tell us if you think the Rays will non-tender Aybar after the season, and here to see the results.
Dodgers Designate Ronnie Belliard For Assignment
The Dodgers have designated infielder Ronnie Belliard for assignment according to MLB.com's Ken Gurnick (via Twitter). The move frees up a 40-man roster spot for outfielder Trent Oeltjen.
Belliard, 35, hit just .216/.295/.327 with two homers in 185 plate appearances this season. He signed a one year contract worth $825K this winter. Oeltjen, 27, hit .347/.416/.563 in 226 plate appearances with Los Angeles' Triple-A affiliate this year.
Rockies Designate Taylor Buchholz For Assignment
The Rockies have designated righthander Taylor Buchholz for assignment according to Troy Renck of The Denver Post (via Twitter). The move frees up a 40-man roster spot for catcher Paul Phillips.
Buchholz, 28, missed the entire 2009 season and most of 2010 due to Tommy John surgery. He returned in July to throw ten reasonably effective innings (4.50 ERA, 8.1 K/9) before landing on the disabled list with back stiffness. As Renck explains in a second tweet, Buchholz can choose to become a free agent if he goes unclaimed on waivers, however he would forfeit the $163K left on his contract by doing so.
Acquired from the Astros in the Jason Jennings trade four years ago, Buchholz pitched to a 2.17 ERA, 7.6 K/9, and 2.4 BB/9 in 66.1 innings of relief in 2008 before his elbow gave out. Given the dearth of quality relievers and the fact that Buchholz is under team control for another two seasons, there's a chance someone will roll the dice and place a claim.
The Mets’ 2011 Rotation
It seems like an odd thing to say about a team currently sitting at 67-71, but next year's version of the New York Mets may not have room at the inn for additional acquisitions.
Currently starting for the Mets are four pitchers who have certainly performed well enough to be relied upon in 2011, while a fifth, currently auditioning, has the best stuff of any of them. Furthermore, all five are under team control for next year.
Let's break the staff down:
Next year's Opening Day starter is likely to be Johan Santana, who has weathered an alarming early-season slide to become the Santana the Mets expected when they signed him to a six-year, $137.5MM contract after trading for him in in February 2008. Through the end of June, Santana pitched to a respectable 3.55 ERA, but that masked a strikeout rate on the season of just 5.7 K/9, down more than two per nine from his 2008-2009 levels.
Since July 1, however, Santana has a 2.37 ERA, with a far stronger 7.4 K/9. It appears that temporary dip may have been Santana recovering from elbow surgery – Santana appears to believe that's the case. It is certainly a relief to the Mets, who owe Santana $22.5MM in 2011, $24MM in 2012 and $25MM in 2013.
Meanwhile, the best ERA among the starters belongs not to Santana, but to R.A. Dickey, who actually began the year in Triple-A. And while it is tempting to believe a 2.91 ERA from a 35-year-old pitcher who entered the season with a career 5.43 ERA is a fluke, there are plenty of reasons to believe otherwise in this case.
For one thing, Dickey has only been relying on his knuckleball for five years and his minor league performance has improved steadily since. For another, his peripherals are quite good, particularly his 2.2 walks per nine innings, despite throwing a huge majority of knucklers, a notoriously hard pitch to control.
With his limited time in the major leagues, Dickey has yet to accrue enough service time for free agency, so the Mets control him merely by offering arbitration. The smart money here is on the two sides agreeing to a multi-year deal that avoids arbitration and provides Dickey with some security. Remember: Phil Niekro had 12 200-plus inning seasons after age 35. The clock is different with knuckleball pitchers.
Another mainstay for 2011 is Jon Niese, who has impressed all year long and now has a 3.85 ERA with 3.0 walks and 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings. His numbers are actually skewed by three recent poor starts; the Mets have left Niese in games until he looked fatigued, rather than managing his workload more cautiously.
The fourth horseman for the Mets is Mike Pelfrey, who seems to constantly be disappointing people who are waiting for him to be something other than a reliable innings-eater. Pelfrey's fluctuating ERA- 3.72 in 2008, 5.03 in 2009, 3.96 in 2010- is almost entirely a function of luck and defense, with peripherals staying ludicrously consistent in all three seasons. Even during his 10-2, 2.93 ERA start in 2010, his strikeout rate never reached six per nine innings. Pelfrey will almost certainly be offered arbitration and remain in the rotation in 2011.
That leaves the fifth spot, and Jenrry Mejia, the 20-year-old with the blazing fastball and intermittent command of his secondary pitches, aims to fill the role. He made his first major league start last Saturday, after his lone Triple-A start.
It is nearly impossible to know exactly what Mejia can give the Mets in 2011. His upside is certainly high, with terrific movement on his curveball and changeup to go along with a major league fastball that sits in the mid-nineties. But he is also an inexperienced pitcher with no track record of starting success, aside from a combined 17 starts above Single-A.
Still, with plenty of other holes and signals from the team that very little money will be spent this offseason, Mejia will likely get the opportunity to learn on the job.
One can imagine the only opportunities New York will have for starters in 2011 will be in the area of organizational depth. If Mejia falters, or one of the other four pitchers gets injured, the only Plan Bs available right now are the underwhelming Dillon Gee (who starts tonight) and Tobi Stoner, or the much-maligned Oliver Perez, who will head to the Mexican League after the season and try to find his fastball.