Discussion: The Future Of The Rays
In a piece for MLB.com, Hal Bodley discusses the challenge of maintaining competitive balance in baseball, using the potential payroll cut facing the Rays as an example. According to owner Stuart Sternberg, Tampa Bay may have to cut player salaries from over $70MM in 2010 to the $50MM range for 2011.
Bodley's article focuses more on revenue sharing and competitive balance around the league, but for our purposes, let's examine the Rays' specific case. In perhaps the scariest division in baseball, spending significantly less than the Red Sox and Yankees, will the Rays realistically be able to compete past this season?
A look at the 2011 free agent list reveals a few major contributors who could be entering their last year in Tampa, including Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Pat Burrell, and Rafael Soriano. The club still has a strong young nucleus that includes Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton, Wade Davis, and David Price, among others, but losing a third of their starting lineup and their closer would sting.
Could the team bring back one or two of those major free agents? Crawford, Pena, Burrell, and Soriano alone will earn over $36.5MM in 2010, so even taking into account next year's arbitration raises and reduced payroll, the team could have some negotiating flexibility with that money off the books. Or they could let everyone walk, pile up a few compensation draft picks, and spend that extra money elsewhere.
So, if you're running the Rays, facing a significant payroll cut for 2011, what's your approach? If your team is slipping from contention by the trading deadline, do you shop Crawford and other players? Which potential free agents, if any, do you attempt to bring back next season?
Offseason In Review: Florida Marlins
Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Marlins.
Major League Signings: None
Notable Minor League Signings
- Mike MacDougal, Seth McClung, Derrick Turnbow, Jose Veras, Brian Barden, Mike Lamb, Donnie Murphy, Danny Richar, Hector Luna, Chris Schroder, Scott Strickland, Clay Hensley
Extensions
- Josh Johnson, SP: four years, $39MM.
Trades and Claims
- Acquired P Jose Alvarez and P Hunter Jones from Red Sox for RF Jeremy Hermida
- Acquired Rule 5 pick 3B Jorge Jimenez, SS Luis Bryan, and P Robert Bono from Astros for RP Matt Lindstrom
Notable Losses
- Jeremy Hermida, Matt Lindstrom, Ross Gload, Nick Johnson, Alfredo Amezaga, Kiko Calero, Brendan Donnelly
Summary
This was a typical Marlins offseason on the surface – no money spent on free agency, no arbitration offers to departing free agents, and a couple of salary dump trades. Still, the work of president Larry Beinfest and GM Michael Hill warrants a closer look.
The Marlins are known for pulling relievers off the scrap heap and getting good performances. Calero, Donnelly, and Brian Sanches were last year's minor league deal success stories. Chances are the Fish will squeeze the best out of MacDougal, McClung, Turnbow, and Veras, and they risked nothing. Lindstrom didn't have much trade value, as the best player the Marlins received was Jimenez (the eighth pick in the Rule 5 draft). Lindstrom is only costing the Astros $1.625MM this year, and you have to wonder if the Marlins sold low. In hindsight, the Marlins were right not to offer arbitration to Calero, who could only find a minor league deal and would have done better accepting arb coming off a 1.95 ERA.
Don't blame the Marlins for trading Hermida; he would've been a non-tender candidate for most teams. The Marlins are in good shape with a Chris Coghlan–Cameron Maybin–Cody Ross outfield. Credit Beinfest and Hill for hanging on to Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu, as trading either probably would've hurt the team's chances in 2010. There is some debate as to whether Type B free agent Nick Johnson deserved an arbitration offer, but that might've saddled the Marlins with a contract bigger than the $5.75MM deal he signed with the Yankees. I'll reserve judgment on the Marlins' choice not to bring in a different veteran first baseman, as Gaby Sanchez comes with a passable .270/.356/.430 projection.
The Marlins had no problem investing in young talent, as they locked up Josh Johnson for four years and showed a willingness to offer $20MM to Aroldis Chapman. It'd be overly simplistic to link either pursuit to the January 12th joint statement about the Marlins' use of their revenue sharing funds; the Johnson signing and Chapman offer were already well in the works.
Let's not get too crazy with our Marlins praise, though. Have they "consistently made every effort to put the best product on the field," as president David Samson said in the statement? The Marlins could point to their highest payroll in five years, a figure that will continue to rise. But a legitimate competing team would've at least added a starting pitcher or two, as the Marlins are all question marks after Johnson and Ricky Nolasco. I won't count out a management team that coaxed 87 wins out of $37MM last year, but on paper the Marlins don't appear to be contenders.
Cubs Inquire On Jason Frasor
The Cubs inquired on Blue Jays reliever Jason Frasor again, writes ESPN's Jerry Crasnick. The latest call from the Cubs comes on the heels of Angel Guzman's season-ending shoulder injury. Crasnick says the Cubs are "urgently seeking relief help."
Frasor, 32, posted a 2.50 ERA, 8.7 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9 in 57.6 innings for the Blue Jays last year. He's earning $2.65MM in his last season before free agency. Frasor profiled as a Type B in the 2008-09 Elias rankings, with 66.322 points (Octavio Dotel was the lowest Type A at 68.007). But keep in mind the Cubs have not shown an inclination to offer arbitration to departing free agents in recent years.
SI's Jon Heyman addressed the Cubs' bullpen situation in today's article, noting that GM Jim Hendry made a play for Chan Ho Park before he signed with the Yankees. Heyman writes that "few teams are foolish enough to trade away proven set-up men at this point," but the Jays cashing in on Frasor now would make sense. The price for Padres closer Heath Bell would be higher, since Bell is under team control for two seasons.
The Cubs are not known to have interest in any free agent relievers, though veterans like Russ Springer, David Weathers, and John Smoltz remain unemployed.
Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings
Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings are up at RotoAuthority.
Bowden Talks To Epstein, Zduriencik, Reagins, Wren
Jim Bowden's weekly GM's Corner video pieces for FOX Sports make for good viewing. This week he talked to Theo Epstein, Jack Zduriencik, Tony Reagins, and Frank Wren. A few hot stove highlights:
- Epstein admitted that new third baseman Adrian Beltre would "have to have a big year" to achieve Type A status after the season, but finds at least Type B likely. Epstein noted that there's the possibility of signing Beltre long-term if he proves to be a good fit.
- Zduriencik told Bowden he was aggressive in pursuing Chone Figgins, and got the deal done within 48 hours. Also, Zduriencik mentioned that the Brewers were one pick away from taking Casey Kotchman in the first round in 2001; they instead took Mike Jones at #12 overall. I wonder if the Brewers still would've drafted Prince Fielder in '02 if they had Kotchman.
- Reagins is "not really concerned" about having a limited number of lefties in the bullpen, after the Halos lost Darren Oliver to the Rangers this offseason.
- Wren believes the Braves have "improved quite a bit" offensively, and talked up Nate McLouth, Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, Melky Cabrera, and Troy Glaus.
Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves
We've finished all the AL clubs in our Offseason In Review series. The Braves kick off the NL today.
Major League Signings
- Tim Hudson, SP: three years, $28MM. Includes $9MM club option for 2013 with a $1MM buyout
- Billy Wagner, RP: one year, $7MM. Includes $6.5MM club option with a $250K buyout. Vests with 50 games finished
- Takashi Saito, RP: one year, $3.2MM.
- Troy Glaus, 1B: one year, $1.75MM.
- Eric Hinske, 1B/3B/OF: one year, $1MM.
- Juan Abreu, P: one year, $400K (estimated).
- Total spend: $41.35MM.
Notable Minor League Signings
- Edward Salcedo, Scott Proctor, Chris Resop, Joe Thurston, Brent Clevlen, Mitch Jones
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RP Jesse Chavez for RP Rafael Soriano
- Acquired OF Melky Cabrera, P Arodys Vizcaino, P Michael Dunn, and $500K for SP Javier Vazquez and RP Boone Logan
Notable Losses
- Garret Anderson, Kelly Johnson, Adam LaRoche, Javier Vazquez, Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Buddy Carlyle, Brandon Jones, Greg Norton, Boone Logan
Summary
The Braves entered the offseason with several significant free agents: Hudson, LaRoche, Soriano, and Gonzalez. GM Frank Wren led off by signing Hudson at a fair price. He then guaranteed $10.2MM to Wagner and Saito, $9MM less than Gonzalez and Soriano ultimately required. Much is riding on the elbows of the 38-year-old Wagner and 40-year-old Saito, yet the new back end of the Braves bullpen doesn't seem riskier than Gonzalez and Soriano. This was a gamble worth taking, and the Braves also came away with Chavez and the #35 and #53 picks in the 2010 draft (while losing #20 to Boston).
The pitching additions left little in the budget for other moves. Wren opted for risk/affordability at first base. Johnson was let go for nothing, though Prado may match him at the league minimum. The Hudson signing, in the view of the Braves, necessitated the trade of Derek Lowe or Vazquez. The Braves were willing to eat $9MM of the $45MM owed to Lowe, but found no takers. Instead, Vazquez was traded in a cost-cutting move that makes hurts the Braves' rotation in 2010.
Leaving Logan out of the equation, the Vazquez trade saved the Braves $8.9MM. When was the last time you saw a legitimate pitching surplus? Odds are that Vazquez will be significantly better than the Braves' worst starter in 2010. If the Braves fall two or three wins short in the NL East, we have to point to this cost-cutting move. To be fair, the Braves' front five still looks excellent.
Their lineup carries plenty of risk with Glaus and Chipper Jones. But if healthy this has to be one of the NL's best offenses – Matt Diaz carries their worst projected OBP at .349. Cabrera doesn't seem like the outfield addition the Braves needed, but can you name an affordable free agent who'd match his .296/.367/.441 projection with acceptable defense?
You could make the argument that every team would be better with an extra $11.5MM spent, and the Braves just didn't have the budget to keep Vazquez. This one stings, though, since it wasn't a win-now trade. The deal, and the Braves' offseason, will look better if Cabrera has a big year. He's part of a strong-looking club that should contend all season.
No Extension Talks Yet For McCutchen
The Pirates have yet to approach center fielder Andrew McCutchen about a long-term extension, reports Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Team president Frank Coonelly explained that while McCutchen is the type of player they'd want to lock up, "the earlier you go, the more risk you take on." McCutchen has only 108 big league games under his belt.
McCutchen told Kovacevic that "it would be cool" to sign a Justin Upton-like extension. But as the player noted, Upton has significantly more time in the Majors. I'm not sure he's the right comparable anyway.
McCutchen won't even be arbitration-eligible until after the 2012 season. The model for an extension might come from this group of signed center fielders: Grady Sizemore, Shane Victorino, Franklin Gutierrez, Curtis Granderson, Nate McLouth, Chris Young, and David DeJesus. How much will it cost the Pirates to buy out McCutchen's three arbitration years? That might depend on how much power he displays. But the players listed gave up their arbitration years at prices ranging from $8.1MM for DeJesus to $17.25MM for Granderson. Gutierrez, signed most recently, gets $11.5MM.
Kovacevic's article touches on McLouth, as the way he was extended and traded months later was not received well. Coonelly says that the team's actions will gain the fans' trust. He also said:
We can never say never, but I will say again that the days of us needing to move players in order to get multiple players in return to rebuild the system, those are over.
Odds & Ends: Grudzielanek, Royals, Fielder, Calero
Links for Sunday….
- In his latest mailbag, MLB.com's Jim Street writes that he could see Chad Cordero hooking on with a major league club if he continues to stay healthy and perform well in Spring Training. Cordero is in camp with the Mariners and competing for a job, but is unlikely to make the team as the bullpen is already stocked with quality right-handers.
- Mark Grudzielanek is eager to hook on with the Indians, writes Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com. The 39-year-old second baseman, who was absent from the majors in 2009, says he has his eye on the starting job.
- MLB.com's Dick Kaegel reports that Royals shortstop prospect Jeff Bianchi will miss the 2010 season with elbow surgery. Danny Duffy, a left-handed pitcher and the organization's #8 prospect according to Baseball America, will be shut down as well for the time being due to elbow stiffness.
- Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel talks to Brewers GM Doug Melvin about Prince Fielder's future. Melvin reiterates that the team hopes to keep Fielder around for many years, and revisits an instance during his stint as the Rangers' GM when he had to trade a heavy hitter.
- Questions about Kiko Calero's health might have kept him on the market longer than expected this winter, but Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News says that the righty has been throwing off a mound and looks okay for now. "Conditioning-wise he's pretty good," pitching coach Dan Warthen said. "He just hasn't seen hitters."
- Newly-acquired Melvin Mora could end up playing nearly every position on the diamond for the Rockies this year, writes Jim Armstrong of the Denver Post.
- WEEI's Alex Speier reports that Brian Shouse's minor league contract will earn him $800K if he makes the Red Sox' major league roster.
Dodgers Don’t Plan To Trade For Catcher
The Dodgers do not plan to bring in a catcher after losing Russell Martin for four to six weeks with a pulled groin, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Instead, they will rely on A.J. Ellis to fill the void, with Brad Ausmus serving as the understudy. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com writes that Torre has faith in the rookie.
The post notes that Paul Bako is likely the top remaining free agent catcher. The 37-year-old hit .224/.308/.336 in 130 plate appearances for the Phillies last season. Another notable catcher without a job is Michael Barrett, though he missed the majority of 2009 due to injury.
Los Angeles dealt one of the game's top catching prospects, Carlos Santana, in the Casey Blake deal in 2008. The 23-year-old Santana will likely make his major league debut this season.
No Multi-Year Talks For Sandoval
The Giants are not currently looking to give Pablo Sandoval a multi-year contract, writes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Team official Bobby Evans told Schulman that the club is negotiating a one-year deal with the 23-year-old, as is their custom for players with less than two years of major league service time. Sandoval has just over one year of service time to his credit.
Finding precedent for a player like Sandoval could prove to be difficult. This past season Kung Fu Panda hit .330/.387/.556 with 25 HRs in 633 plate appearances. Last spring, the Giants and Tim Lincecum agreed to a $650K deal, though Tiny Tim had a bit more service time under his belt than Sandoval.
Schulman suggests Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard as comparisons, as they also had brilliant campaigns in their first full seasons. Fielder was renewed for $415K while Howard was given $900K, a record salary for a one-plus player.