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Free Agent Stock Watch: Pedro Feliciano

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Quality left-handed relievers are always a hot commodity (perhaps even over-valued) on the free agent market, and one of the best available this winter is former Fukuoka SoftBank Hawk Pedro Feliciano. Let's review his stock…

The Good

  • Feliciano's an absolute workhorse, leading the league in appearances in each of the last three seasons. He's also appeared in more games each successive year, topping out at 92 this year.
  • As you'd expect, he's been excellent against left-handed batters, holding them to a .212/.271/.310 batting line with 9.6 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 over the last three years.
  • Although he was offered arbitration, Feliciano is just a Type-B free agent, so it will not cost a draft pick to sign him. 

The Bad

  • Feliciano will turn 35 next summer, so all of those appearances could catch up to him in the not-too-distant future.
  • He's strictly a lefty specialist; right-handers have tagged him for a .325/.420/.474 batting line over the last three seasons with nearly as many walks (50) as strikeouts (55).
  • Feliciano has historically been homer prone. He allowed seven long balls in both 2008 and 2009 (1.1 HR/9) before surrendering just one in 2010 (0.1 HR/9).
  • Feliciano wanted a multiyear contract extension from the Mets in 2009, so chances are he's still seeking a deal that will guarantee him more than one year.

The Verdict

Feliciano is one of those free agents that you could see fitting with all 30 teams. He's been one of the best lefty relievers in baseball over the last few years, but he doesn't offer much flexibility and is no spring chicken. Feliciano represents a nice alternative to teams scared by the asking price of Scott Downs or Brian Fuentes, so he should have his pick from several offers.

Odds & Ends: Upton, Blue Jays, Miner, Pirates

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A round of Thanksgiving links…

Chiba Lotte Will Accept High Bid For Nishioka

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The Chiba Lotte Marines have announced that they will accept the high bid for infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka's negotiating rights, tweets Joe Christensen of The Star Tribune. The high bidder will likely be announced tomorrow, according to a second Christensen tweet. 

Accepting the high bid is just one step in the process; whichever team won the bidding will have 30 days to work out a contract with Nishioka, not exactly a given as we've seen with Hisashi Iwakuma. The Twins are said to be "very much in on" Nishioka, though the Orioles and Padres did not submit bids. The Giants, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Cardinals were said to be uncertain about pursuing him.

The 26-year-old shortstop hit .346/.423/.482 with 11 homers and 22 steals this season, though it was by far the best season of his career. In parts of eight seasons with Chiba Lotte, Nishioka is a .293/.364/.426 hitter. ESPN's Keith Law (Insider req'd) called him "valuable as an everyday guy on a second-division club," while NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman sees him as a Ryan Theriot/Chone Figgins type.

Non-Tender Candidate: Russell Martin

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It wasn't too long ago that Russell Martin looked like an up-and-coming superstar, hitting .293/.374/.469 with 19 homers while throwing out 33% of would-be base stealers as a 24-year-old in 2007. He started 143 games behind the plate that year, and it appears as though the heavy workload has taken its toll physically. Still just 27, there's a good chance the Dodgers will decline to tender Martin a contract before the December 2nd deadline.

Martin's 2010 season came to an abrupt end in early August, when an awkward step crossing the plate resulted in a hairline fracture in his right hip. Matt Colleran, Martin's agent, clarified the extent of the injury to MLBTR and provided an update on his status. "[The misstep] resulted in a hairline fracture in his hip, and there was absolutely no damage, tear or injury to his labrum," said Colleran. "In his last medical visit on November 4th, his medical reports confirmed that the fracture was healing quickly, there were no complications to the healing since the injury, no surgery was ever performed or needed, and again, there is, and never was, any damage sustained to his labrum whatsoever."

Prior to the injury, Martin had hit just .248/.347/.332 in 387 plate appearances, continuing a trend that has seen his AVG, OBP, and OPS decline for three straight years. From 2007 through 2009, no catcher started more games behind the plate or caught as many innings as Martin, and it's not particularly close either. The wear-and-tear may have simply been too much.

The Dodgers paid Martin $5.05MM in 2010, his second of four arbitration-eligible seasons (he's a Super Two). Even with the sub-par performance and hip injury, his salary would likely climb north of $6MM in 2011. Quality catching is a hot commodity, but the injury and declining performance combined with the potential salary could make Martin expendable in GM Ned Colletti's eyes. 

Will the Dodgers non-tender Russell Martin?

Click here to vote and here to see the results. Thanks in advance.

Poll: Will Anyone Sign Manny Ramirez?

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You know a player has set lofty standards when everyone considers a .298/.409/.460 season to be a disappointment, but that's exactly what Manny Ramirez did in 2010. He hit just .261/.420/.319 in 88 plate appearances following his mid-season trade to the White Sox, and they unsurprisingly declined to offer the Type-A free agent earlier this week. MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez now wonders if this is it for one of the greatest hitters we'll ever see.

When he ranked Manny the 19th best free agent on the market (insider req'd), ESPN's Keith Law said he's "lost enough bat speed that when he squares a ball up it doesn't take off the way that it did for him before the 2009 season … The explosiveness he had at the plate well into his 30s is all but gone." Ramirez has hit 20 or fewer homers in three of the last four seasons, and his bat is no longer justifying his atrocious defense or various other antics. He also hit the disabled list three times with leg-related ailments this season.

Scott Boras recently said he's seeking a one-year, incentive-laden contract that will allow Ramirez to serve as a full-time designated hitter, but Gonzalez mentions all of the other cheap DH options on the market (Hideki Matsui, Jim Thome, Lance Berkman, Vladimir Guerrero among others) that could reasonably approximate his production. The Blue Jays seem like a logical fit, and although Manny has interest, we don't know if it's mutual.

Two or three years ago a poll question like this would have been unthinkable, but with Ramirez in obvious decline at age 38, it would not be a surprise if teams looking for a DH went in another direction. On to the poll…

Will anyone sign Manny Ramirez this offseason?

Click here to vote, and here to see the results. Thanks in advance.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Matt Guerrier

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Matt Guerrier probably caught a break when the Twins decided not to offer him arbitration earlier this week. Fellow Type As Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor and Grant Balfour all got offers of arbitration and will cost picks, but teams can sign the 32-year-old Guerrier without having to surrender a draft choice. Here's a detailed look at his free agent stock:

The Pros

  • Guerrier led the league in appearances in 2008-09 and pitched in 74 games this past season.
  • He induces more grounders than fly balls.
  • His slider is excellent.
  • Guerrier has a 2.7 K/BB ratio against right-handed hittters in his career. 
  • He has just a 1.5 K/BB ratio against left-handed hitters in his career, but he does induce more groundballs against them (55%).
  • As mentioned earlier, it won't cost a pick to sign Guerrier.

The Cons

  • Defense independent pitching stats like FIP and xFIP suggest Guerrier's 3.17 ERA would have been higher if he had been less lucky in 2010.
  • He posted 5.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 last year. That's not spectacular and both rates were better in 2009.
  • The free agent market is flush with right-handed relievers, so Guerrier won't have much leverage.

The Verdict

The Twins are one of many teams that could use a steady arm like Guerrier's. MLB.com's Kelly Thesier wrote last month that they seem more likely to retain Guerrier and Jesse Crain than their other free agent relievers.

The market has played out favorably for at least one reliever, but Guerrier doesn't have the gaudy numbers that Joaquin Benoit does. Teams will have interest in someone with a history of effectiveness and durability, but I will be surprised if Guerrier earns more than $4-5MM on a one-year deal.

Poll: Which Type B FAs Will Accept Arbitration?

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A total of 21 Type B free agents received offers of arbitration earlier in the week. They now have a few days remaining to decide whether to accept. Javier Vazquez and Trevor Hoffman have reportedly agreed to reject their teams' offers and John Buck and Joaquin Benoit have already signed deals with new teams, but that still leaves 17 players.

When voting on today's poll, keep in mind that teams won't have to forfeit draft picks to sign these Type B free agents, even though they were offered arbitration.

Which Type B free agents will accept arbitration?

Click here to vote and here to view the results.

Yankees Notes: Rivera, Jeter

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It's a winter of turbulence for the Yankees' core four. Here's the latest on the kind of interest two longtime Yankees might draw from other teams:

  • Mariano Rivera will have many teams looking to pry him away from the Bronx if negotiations with the Yankees sour, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.
  • John Harper of the New York Daily News writes that Derek Jeter would look hypocritical if he left the Yankees over a financial dispute after years of saying winning matters more than anything.
  • MLB executives tell George A. King III of the New York Post that they firmly believe Jeter will re-sign with the Yankees. One person pointed out that Jeter needs the Red Sox to bid on him, but cautioned that Boston won’t likely get involved. An AL official named the Orioles, Nationals, Cardinals and Giants as teams that could have interest in the shortstop.

Olney On Dunn, Lee, Greinke, Jeter, Pena

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The Rangers have money to spend and ESPN.com's Buster Olney suggests they could spend it on Adam Dunn. GM Jon Daniels could pursue Carl Crawford or another free agent if Cliff Lee signs elsewhere, but Dunn would provide the Rangers with a formidable power threat. Here are the rest of Olney's rumors:

  • The Rangers' priority is still to sign Lee.
  • Rival executives see Texas as the team that's most likely to acquire Zack Greinke from the Royals. 
  • To create leverage with the Yankees, Derek Jeter will need another club to make a significantly better proposal than the three-year $45MM deal the Yankees are offering. Needless to say, it will be difficult for agent Casey Close to find such an offer for a 36-year-old coming off a down year. 
  • Olney hears that the Nationals are the most enthusiastic team about signing Carlos Pena.

This Date In Transactions History: November 25th

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On this date last year, the White Sox signed Andruw Jones and the Blue Jays locked up John McDonald. Those deals were relatively small, but November 25th has traditionally been a busy day for hot stove action. Here's a quick recap:

  • On this date in 2005, the Phillies sent Jim Thome to the White Sox for a package that included Aaron Rowand and Gio Gonzalez. Thome went on to hit 124 homers in four seasons for the White Sox, but the Phillies didn't miss him too much. Ryan Howard developed into an offensive force and replaced Thome's bat in the middle of Philadelphia's order. The White Sox didn't miss Gonzalez for long – they re-acquired him along with Gavin Floyd for Freddy Garcia one year later. Meanwhile, Rowand turned in one mediocre season and one excellent season before signing a free agent contract with the Giants. 
  • The Phillies-White Sox swap may not have a clear winner, but this 2003 trade certainly does. Seven years ago today, the Cubs sent Hee-Seop Choi and Mike Nannini to the Marlins for Derrek Lee. The Marlins would soon flip Choi to Los Angeles with Brad Penny in the deal that sent Paul Lo Duca, Guillermo Mota and Juan Encarnacion to Florida. The Cubs got years of All-Star production from Lee, who posted a .298/.378/.524 line in seven seasons in Chicago.
  • Back in 1998, the Yankees signed free agent center fielder Bernie Williams to a seven-year $87.5MM deal. The Yankees had been offering $60MM, so Buster Olney wrote in the New York Times that "the team caved… in a stunning reversal." The Red Sox also had interest in Williams, and the Yankees had their sights on Albert Belle as a backup plan until the Orioles offered him $65MM over five years. Ultimately, Williams said "It came down to the fact that I wanted to be a Yankee."

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