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What We Learned: This Week’s Arbitration Offers

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More than half of ranked free agents received offers of arbitration from their teams this week. Clubs offered 35 ranked free agents arbitration (up from 23 last year). Here's what we learned from the flurry of arbitration offers.

The Facts

  • If you haven't done so already, click here for an explanation of how free agent compensation works and click here to check out our arbitration offer tracker.
  • Teams offered 14 of 27 Type A free agents arbitration (52%)
  • Teams offered 21 of 38 Type B free agents arbitration (55%).
  • In total, teams offered 35 of 65 ranked free agents arb (54%).

What This Says About The Market

  • Teams are valuing draft picks highly.
  • Why the extra emphasis on the draft? It's always been a cheap way for teams to stock their systems with talent, but this year is different. The 2011 draft class is strong, so having multiple high picks is a plus. 
  • Since the collective bargaining agreement expires after 2011, there is a chance that there will be spending restrictions for the 2012 draft. That could make next year a big one for teams willing to spend over-slot on top early picks.
  • Teams expect each other to spend aggressively. Players are more likely to turn down arbitration if they get multi-year offers on the open market. John Buck and Joaquin Benoit and others have signed deals that may encourage players to turn down arbitration in search of multi-year contracts.

What To Expect In 2010 And 2011

  • The supplementary first round lasted 18 selections in 2010 and 17 selections in 2009, but the 2011 supplementary round figures to be considerably longer. Some players will accept offers of arbitration and others may sign minor league deals, so there's no way it will last 35 picks. Still, it wouldn't be surprising to see the supplementary round last 25 selections next year.
  • MLB attempted to speed the offseason up, but the recent rush of offers may work against the league's goal. Teams will likely be reluctant to hand over a top pick for Grant Balfour, Frank Francisco or Jason Frasor, but once clubs sign free agents with higher Elias rankings, those relievers will cost a second rounder at most. Those three Type A right-handers will draw interest, but it may take a while for them to sign.

Matching The Team To The Stadium

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Fenway Park has the Green Monster, Coors Field has the humidor, and Minute Maid Park has the Crawford Boxes. Lots of stadiums have quirks or tendencies that favor certain kinds of players and big league executives are well aware of it. MLB GMs say they prefer to have players whose skill sets match their parks, but that's just one consideration when constructing a roster.

The Tigers, for example, play 81 games per season in spacious Comerica Park, so GM Dave Dombrowski says he looks for outfielders who can cover lots of ground whenever possible.

"Fortunately we have an outstanding defensive center fielder now in Austin Jackson," Dombrowski told MLBTR last week in Orlando. "But you know you have to have an outstanding center fielder in Comerica Park who can really go get the ball or it’ll hurt you a great deal."

Jackson, Brennan Boesch and Ryan Raburn will be in the Tigers organization in 2011, but longtime right fielder Magglio Ordonez is a free agent, so the Tigers may look to acquire a corner outfielder via trade or free agency. If they do, Comerica Park will be a factor.

"Even your corner outfielders, it’s hard to get just a guy who is a stationary type guy because our outfield’s big, so we take it into consideration quite a bit,” Dombrowski said.

Like Comerica Park, San Diego's Petco Park has a larger than average outfield. And Padres GM Jed Hoyer acquired former Tigers prospect Cameron Maybin partly because his athleticism should make the club better defensively.

"Having a big station to station team that plays poor defense doesn’t seem like a recipe for success given the ballparks we play in,” Hoyer said.

No team adds or subtracts players purely because of their ballpark and the Padres are no exception. But because of the unbalanced schedule, Hoyer is intent on fielding a team that can cover lots of ground at Petco.

"We play 81 games there, we play nine in AT&T Park, we play nine in Dodger Stadium, the outfield in Coors Field is huge so you start adding it up and the number of games we play in big fields is a lot and we need to be fast," Hoyer said.

Similarly, some teams in homer-friendly ballparks are inclined to acquire pitchers who keep the ball on the ground. Camden Yards has been one of baseball's five friendliest home run environments for four years running, according to ESPN's park factors, and the Orioles front office knows how their home stadium plays. As president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail points out, you can't hit a ground ball out of the park.

"We do pay attention to [ground ball rate], we definitely factor it in," MacPhail said. "All things being equal it’s a positive, but it’s not a sole driver in terms of what we do."

If the O's really did make decisions completely based on ground ball rate, they would not have signed Koji Uehara, who was effective in 2010 despite allowing 2.5 times as many fly balls as ground balls. Instead, park factors are one element of the team's decision-making process.

"If we think we can find the right guy even if he doesn’t have that [ground ball] number that would be ideal, we’ll [consider him],” MacPhail said.

Rakuten Eagles Sign Kaz Matsui

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Kaz Matsui has returned to Japan to join the Rakuten Eagles, according to the Associated Press (via the Denver Post). The Eagles were one of four teams that expressed interest in the switch-hitting infielder, according to reports passed along by Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times (on Twitter).

The 35-year-old finished the season in the Rockies' minor league system after the Astros released him. In seven major league seasons, Matsui posted a .267/.321/.380 line and stole 102 bases (120 attempts). His finest seasons came in 2007-08 when he batted .290/.348/.415. While with the Mets, the light-hitting Matsui homered in his first plate appearance of the 2004, 2005 and 2006 seasons.

Red Sox Interested In Rod Barajas

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With Victor Martinez and John Buck off the market, the Red Sox are turning their attention to "a number of catching contingencies" including free agent Rod Barajas, reports FOXSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi.  Barajas would presumably share time with, or be a veteran backup for, Jarrod Saltalamacchia in Boston.

Barajas hit .240/.284/.447 in 339 plate appearances with the Mets and Dodgers in 2010, including a .939 OPS with Los Angeles after he was claimed on waivers in late August.  The 35-year-old gained some AL East experience playing in Toronto in 2008-09 and is known for a strong throwing arm behind the plate.  Barajas has thrown out 32% of baserunners trying to steal on him over his 12-year career, though as Morosi pointed out, that percentage dipped to 15% last season. 

Boston tried to acquire Barajas from the Mets in July to fill in for their many injured catchers.  Barajas' solid power numbers should earn him a bigger contract than the $500K guaranteed deal he signed with New York last February, though he would still be a relatively cheap pickup for the Sox.

Minor League Transactions

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Here's a look at some notable names involved in minor transactions between November 16-21, as compiled by Baseball America's Matt Eddy…

  • Left-hander Scott Rice signed with the Cubs.  Rice was picked 44th overall by Baltimore in the 1999 amateur draft, but has yet to get a cup of coffee in the majors after appearing in 377 minor league games.
  • Right-hander Jon Huber re-signed with the Dodgers.  Huber last pitched in the majors in 2007 with Seattle.
  • Veteran right-hander Scott Patterson re-signed with the Mariners.  Patterson has four major league games to his name, with the Padres and Yankees in 2008.
  • The Marlins re-signed Vinny Rottino, and also signed relievers Victor Garate and Frank Mata.  The Fish also removed right-hander Brett Sinkbeil from their 40-man roster.  Sinkbeil was Florida's first-round pick (19th overall) in the 2006 draft, drafted ahead of such notables as Daniel Bard, Joba Chamberlain and Chris Perez.
  • Former Tigers outfielder Jeff Frazier signed with the Nationals.  Frazier made his major league debut with Detroit last season, posting a .511 OPS in 24 plate appearances.
  • The Orioles removed right-hander Armando Gabino and first baseman Rhyne Hughes from their 40-man roster, and Gabino elected free agency.  Gabino has a 15.12 ERA in 8 1/3 major league innings with Baltimore and Minnesota.  Hughes posted a .530 OPS in 51 plate appearances for the O's last season.
  • Pittsburgh released a number of minor leaguers, including a few notable international players.  Taiwanese prospects Sheng-Cin Hong and Chih-Wei Hsu, both signed by the Pirates at the start of the 2009 international signing period, have been let go by the club.  Also released was Dinesh Patel, signed by Pittsburgh in 2008 after being a finalist on the Indian reality show "Million Dollar Arm." Patel, a cricket player, had never pitched or even picked up a baseball before appearing on the show.
  • The Rangers reinstated Nathan Haynes from the inactive list and released the outfielder.  Haynes hasn't actually played since 2008.  Drafted 32nd overall by Oakland in the 1997 amateur draft, Haynes never caught on in the bigs, managing 95 career plate appearances with the Angels and Rays in 2007-08.
  • Right-hander Chad Reineke, best known for being traded straight-up for Randy Wolf in 2008, has re-signed with the Reds.
  • The Tigers outrighted Fu-Te Ni to Triple-A and removed the Taiwanese southpaw from their 40-man roster.  Ni had an impressive 2.61 ERA in 36 outings in his 2009 rookie season, but his ERA ballooned to 6.65 in 22 games with Detroit last year.

Odds & Ends: Rasmus, Gilbert, Nishioka, Hoffman

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MLBTR wishes all of its American readers a very happy Thanksgiving.  For those readers not from the USA…uh, happy Thursday!  Onto some news items:

  • "Three contending clubs" have a "persisting interest" in Colby Rasmus, tweets Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  Strauss noted in a follow-up tweet that these are teams with a "new interest," so presumably that eliminates past suitors like the Braves, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and White Sox.  The Rasmus rumor mill seemed to have petered out, with the most recent report stating that there was a 99% chance that Rasmus would still be in St. Louis next season.
  • Dennis Gilbert will not try to buy the Houston Astros, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com.  Gilbert led a group bidding for the Rangers earlier this year and has been rumored to be a potential future ownership candidate for the Dodgers.
  • The Twins are "very much in on" Tsuyoshi Nishioka, tweets Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman.  We heard last week that Minnesota had an interest in the Japanese infielder.
  • When Kevin Towers was general manager of the Padres, he planned to eventually bring Trevor Hoffman back to San Diego so the future Hall-of-Fame closer could retire as a Padre, tweets Fanhouse.com's Tom Krasovic.  Though Towers has moved on to Arizona, Krasovic says there's a chance Hoffman could still return to San Diego now that Sandy Alderson and Paul DePodesta are no longer with the organization.
  • Bill James talks to CBSSports.com's Evan Brunell about a variety of topics, including the new Mets front office, the Justin Upton trade rumors and what the Royals should do with Zack Greinke.
  • Joe Pawlikowski of the River Ave Blues blog wishes the Derek Jeter negotiations moved as smoothly as Mike Mussina's contract talks with the Yankees after the 2006 season.

Orioles Want A One-Year Deal With Koji Uehara

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The Orioles are looking to re-sign reliever Koji Uehara to a one-year, incentive-laden contract, reports Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun.  Andy MacPhail "very much wants Uehara back on the [2011] Orioles, probably even to serve as the team’s closer," but Zrebiec writes that the club didn't offer arbitration to the Type B free agent due to concerns about Uehara's health. 

The 35-year-old has made four trips to the DL during his two years in Baltimore, but is coming off a season in which he posted a 2.86 ERA and a whopping 11.00 K/BB ratio in 43 relief appearances.  Those numbers would've earned Uehara a salary of roughly $6-$7MM in 2011 (up from $5MM in 2010) had he accepted the team's arbitration offer.

Zrebiec thinks that despite it all, "there is also a sense that Uehara’s first choice is return to the club," citing the fact that Uehara enjoys Baltimore and his son is enrolled in school in the city.  It's a calculated risk on the Orioles' part:

"Had they felt Uehara would get a multi-year deal elsewhere, I assume offering him arbitration would have been a slam dunk," Zrebiec says.  "But MacPhail has certainly put added pressure on himself to resign Uehara. If he can’t, the Orioles will not only be without their closer, but they won’t get a draft pick either.'

None of the five MLBTR writers polled thought Uehara would re-sign with the Orioles, though it's interesting to note that all five of us saw Uehara going to teams (the Mets, Red Sox, Tigers and Twins) where he would be a set-up man or an emergency closer, not the main ninth inning option.  Zrebiec notes that Uehara "loves the responsibility of closing," so he could choose to stay in Baltimore simply because the Orioles would install him as the closer on Opening Day.  Closer-needy teams like the Rays or Diamondbacks could also be contenders to sign Uehara if he prioritizes being a stopper and wants more than just one guaranteed year.

Reaction To The Victor Martinez Signing

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Victor Martinez's four-year, $50MM contract with the Tigers was finalized today.  Now that the offseason's first major free agent has left the market, there is no shortage of commentary about how this move impacts Martinez's former club in Boston.  A sampling…

  • "The Tigers are paying Martinez with the expectation that he’ll be able to replicate the career of [Jorge] Posada," writes The Providence Journal's Brian MacPherson, while the Red Sox saw Martinez as another Mike Lieberthal.
  • CSNNE.com's Sean McAdam points out that if Boston had to lose Martinez, Detroit was the best possible team to lose him to since the Tigers have the highest unprotected pick (19th overall) in the 2011 amateur draft.  WEEI.com's Alex Speier, however, points out that Boston's compensatory pick will fall into the second round if the Tigers sign a higher-ranked free agent than Martinez — namely, Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth.
  • In a separate story from Speier, multiple Red Sox sources say they doubt Martinez will remain a viable catcher for more than two seasons. As Speier points out, handing lots of responsibility to Jarrod Saltalamacchia is risky, but signing Martinez long-term would have been risky, too.  Speier says "the decision bore striking parallels" to when Johnny Damon signed with New York after the 2005 season.
  • Writing for WEEI.com, former Boston utilityman Lou Merloni thinks the Red Sox made a mistake by not re-signing Martinez.
  • Tony Massarotti of the Boston Globe thinks Theo Epstein may be putting too much emphasis on stockpiling draft picks.

MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post

Renck On De La Rosa, Floyd, Nationals

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Troy Renck of the Denver Post shared a few Rockies-related items and opinions with his Twitter followers today.  All links within quote marks are tweets unless noted otherwise…

  • Renck feels it's "highly unlikely" that Jorge de la Rosa will re-sign with Colorado.  As we heard last week, the Rockies aren't prepared to offer the free agent starter anything more than a three-year contract, and one of the many clubs interested in De La Rosa will offer him at least four years.
  • Renck personally would have pursued De La Rosa had he been the Rockies GM, but he thinks the club should "shift toward" trading for Gavin Floyd and acquiring two of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jose Lopez or Josh Willingham.  Kouzmanoff and Lopez have drawn some interest from the Rockies already.
  • The White Sox "like Ian Stewart," Renck said in regards to rumors from earlier in the week that Chicago and Colorado had at least discussed swapping the third baseman for Floyd.  Stewart would give the Sox some left-handed pop, possibly in a third base platoon with Dayan Viciedo.
  • Also noted in Renck's previous Twitter link was the fact that the Nationals "want pitching in every trade. Either big league pitching or guys who are close [to the majors]."
  • Type A free agent Carl Pavano will turn 35 in January and would cost the Rockies a draft pick to sign him, but Renck feels Pavano is "worth the risk" if the Rockies can't get Floyd.

Diamondbacks Acquire Zach Duke

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The Diamondbacks have acquired left-hander Zach Duke from the Pirates in exchange for a player to be named later, according to an Arizona team press release.  The player to be named later is "a mid-level prospect" who can't be named due to the roster freeze leading up to the Rule 5 draft, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.  If this player is actually taken in the Rule 5 draft, Piecoro says the Bucs and Snakes "have agreed to other players" to be dealt to Pittsburgh.

Duke, 27, was designated for assignment by Pittsburgh last week following a rough 2010 that saw the southpaw post a 5.72 ERA in 29 starts for the Bucs.  A lifetime Pirate, Duke has a career 4.54 ERA in 160 games (159 of them starts) and a 1.88 K/BB ratio in six major league seasons.  He provides Arizona with a veteran innings-eating option for their rotation, though his career-high 1.4 HR/9 last season might be of greater concern if he's going to be pitching at Chase Field.

Piecoro reports that the D'Backs will try to sign Duke to a contract worth less than his $4.3MM salary in 2010, and if the two sides can't come to an agreement by the tendering deadline, Duke will be non-tendered.  (Both Twitter links)

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