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Update On The Timing Of Top Prospects’ Debuts

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Teams like saving money and extending their control over top young players. Why wouldn't they? Having impact players on affordable contracts simplifies a GM's job. As a result, teams call top young players up strategically every season to control their service time and, in doing so, delay their free agency and/or limit their earnings.

Though service time is a consideration all season long, it's most evident at two times: in April and again midseason, around early June. If teams wait until a few weeks after the season has begun to call a prospect up for his MLB debut, the player doesn't collect a full year of service time, which delays his free agency by a year.

The precise date until which teams must wait before calling prospects up varies each year and according to whether players are on the 40-man roster. Now that we're nearly three weeks into the season, even prospects on the 40-man roster can be called up, since they have spent the requisite 20-day period in the minor leagues. 

None of the following prospects have big league service time, which means that their teams can call them up at any point and keep them through the 2017 season, if not longer: Dustin Ackley, Lonnie Chisenhall, Brett Lawrie, Mike Moustakas, Jesus Montero, Eric Hosmer, Julio Teheran, Manny Banuelos, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles.

On the other hand, Michael Pineda, Zach Britton and Brandon Belt are now in the majors, picking up service time. Because those players are now on MLB rosters, they're currently on track to hit free agency after the 2016 season. However, if their respective teams option them to the minors for 20 days or more, their path to free agency could be slowed as well (that's an immediate possibility for Belt and a long-term one for the pair of impressive rookie hurlers).

That may sounds complicated, but it's the easy part. Later this spring, in late May and early June, the guessing game begins. Teams do not (and can not) know exactly when future cutoffs for super two status will be, so if they want to play it safe and ensure that prospects like Montero and Ackley only go to arbitration three times, they'll want to wait until at least the middle of June before calling them up.

Mets Prefer To Wait On Ike Davis Extension

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One calendar year into his big league career, Ike Davis has a .266/.355/.441 line with 20 homers and 81 walks. The first baseman, who made his MLB debut one year ago today, is a fixture in the Mets’ lineup and, apparently, in their long-term plans. But Andy Martino of the New York Daily News hears that the Mets prefer to wait a few years before locking the 24-year-old up to an extension. 

Davis is reluctant to discuss his success, but he’d be open to discussing an extension, according to Martino. The 2008 first rounder narrowly missed getting a full year of service time in 2010 because the Mets did not call on him until late April. He fell four days short of a full year of service, which means he won’t become a free agent until after 2016 (he would have been eligible after 2015 with a full year of service in '10). The Mets can safely wait to discuss extensions, since Davis won’t even be arbitration eligible until after next year.

 

Quick Hits: Felix, Brewers, MLBPA

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Links for Tuesday on a night that NL hitters have to face Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson and Ubaldo Jimenez…

AL Central Notes: Sizemore, Martinez, White Sox

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Links from the AL Central, before the second-place Royals host the first-place Indians…

  • Indians center fielder Grady Sizemore, who has returned from microfracture knee surgery, tells Yahoo’s Jeff Passan that he feels healthy again. Passan explains that there’s no guarantee Sizemore will have the same explosiveness he had early in his career, even though he has recovered from the procedure.
  • The Tigers have called up Omir Santos from Triple-A, but have yet to announce a corresponding move, according to MLB.com's Jason Beck (on Twitter). The Tigers may have to cut someone if Victor Martinez doesn't need a DL stint.
  • Scot Gregor of the Daily Herald looks at the struggling White Sox and points out that Mark Teahen has likely improved his trade value a little with his strong start. That doesn't make up for Chicago's five-game losing streak, however.

Team Facebook/Twitter/RSS

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If you prefer your MLBTR fix limited to only your favorite team, we've got you covered.  Below are links to our team Facebook, Twitter, and RSS pages and feeds.

AL East

AL Central

AL West

NL East

NL Central

NL West

Transactions only: Twitter / RSS

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

International Signings

  • Elvis Rubio, Estervin Matos

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

In recent years, Doug Melvin's attempts to bolster the Brewers' rotation with free agents have fallen short, and the 2010-11 market didn't offer much front-end pitching anyway.  So Melvin pulled off a near-impossible feat: he traded for a pair of high quality starters, including two years of control for each.  He also hired Ron Roenicke as the team's new manager and extended Weeks one year shy of free agency.  

First Melvin dealt for Marcum, giving up only one player in Lawrie.  Lawrie's bat makes him a top 40 prospect in the eyes of most experts, so the price was significant.  Melvin again showed a willingness to move one of his recent first-round draft picks, as he did with Matt LaPorta in the '08 trade for C.C. Sabathia.  This time, the Brewers got more than a rental.

Greinke

Melvin wasn't done; he aimed to take his rotation from good to great by acquiring Greinke.  As I mentioned in the Royals offseason in review, it was surprising to see the Brewers acquire Greinke without sending a top 50 prospect or equivalent young Major Leaguer.  Sure, the two trades gutted the Brewers' farm system, but I'm a big supporter of trading prospects in the name of winning now.  If you're a team that can't afford to bid on Cliff Lee, this strategy is a strong alternative.  The Brewers have a strong rotation, and the entire group will be back for the 2012 season.

The Brewers' offense ranked fourth in the NL last year, and the only change was swapping out one offensively-challenged shortstop for another.  When Corey Hart returns the team should have enough offense, though in keeping with his "all-in" mindset it'd be great to see Melvin go after Jose Reyes this summer.  Center field was another potential weakness, but the Brewers commendably bought low on Morgan to provide Carlos Gomez with some competition.

Melvin opted not to spend money on the bullpen, instead importing Saito, Mitre, and Green.  The pen could be a weakness, especially if closer John Axford continues to falter.  On the plus side, LaTroy Hawkins is close to returning.  The one questionable trade Melvin made this winter was shipping Villanueva to the Blue Jays for cash.  Unless this trade was unofficially part of the Marcum deal, I don't understand why Melvin would move a decent reliever for cash.

One day before an arbitration hearing, the Brewers agreed to a four-year extension with Weeks.  The Brewers added three free agent years at $10-11MM salaries, plus a 2015 option that vests based on Weeks' health.  On one hand, this is a scary investment for a player coming off his first fully healthy season.  He's endured surgeries on both wrists as well as a thumb and knee.  On the other hand, the Brewers know Weeks' health better than anyone, and if he repeated his 2010 season they wouldn't have been able to sign him for three years and $31MM.

The Brewers are currently one of four NL Central teams sporting an 8-8 record.  My pick for the NL pennant, they'll get a big boost when Greinke and Hart come off the DL.  Hopefully Melvin continues to be aggressive this year, because even with a strong rotation in 2012 the club will likely be without Fielder.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Stark On Mauer, Indians, Myers

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The latest from ESPN's Jayson Stark…

  • Stark tackles the topic of whether Joe Mauer can and should pursue his goal of staying at catcher for the life of his eight-year contract.  Manager Ron Gardenhire was realistic about it, admitting that a position change is worth thinking about if Mauer continues to have leg and knee issues.
  • Indians GM Chris Antonetti explained that if the team remains a contender at the trade deadline, "we'll be looking to acquire guys," rather than trade players like Grady Sizemore.
  • Rooting for the Yankees to acquire Brett Myers this summer?  One NL scout told Stark, "If he's in the AL East, he's a fifth starter." For more on the Astros' trade chips, check out my post from this morning.

Mets Designate Brad Emaus For Assignment

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The Mets designated infielder Brad Emaus for assignment and recalled Justin Turner, tweets David Lennon of Newsday.  Emaus, a Rule 5 pick from the Blue Jays, earned the second base job out of Spring Training but only received 42 plate appearances to establish himself.  If he's not traded or claimed in the next ten days, the Mets have to offer him back to the Blue Jays (or work out a trade to keep him in the organization).  If another team picks up Emaus, they'll still be subject to the Rule 5 restriction of keeping him in the Majors all year.

Emaus, 25, hit .290/.397/.476 in 534 plate appearances for the Blue Jays' Double and Triple-A clubs last year, playing second and third base.

2012 Contract Issues: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series.

Eligible For Free Agency (5)

  • Kosuke Fukudome has had a respectable Cubs career, getting on base at a .370 clip and playing solid right field defense.  However, he hasn't hit for much power and he has been streaky, mixing great months with terrible ones.  He's a useful player, but not a $12MM one, and I think this is his last year with the Cubs.
  • Carlos Pena is probably a rental, one that could benefit both sides if he rediscovers his 35 home run pop.
  • John Grabow's extension was questionable when it was signed, and he'll probably be allowed to leave.
  • Kerry Wood might be retained if he has a solid year, though the Cubs probably won't manage a $1.5MM base salary in that case.
  • Reed Johnson is also eligible for free agency after the season.

Contract Options (2)

  • Aramis Ramirez: $16MM mutual/vesting option for 2012 with a $2MM buyout.  Ramirez has a complicated contract.  He can void the 2012 option and forfeit the buyout, which seems possible with a strong year.  The option can vest in various situations, the most likely of which is Ramirez being traded unless you are optimistic about the third baseman winning the NL or NLCS MVP award.  He can still void the option if it vests, so Ramirez once again controls his fate.  The difference this time will be the Cubs' ability to decline their side.
  • Ryan Dempster: $14MM player option.  The Cubs are also at the mercy of Dempster.  If the righty's 2011 is similar to his 2008-10 campaigns, the best business move would be to decline the option and seek a new contract.  However, he does have a long relationship with Cubs GM Jim Hendry.

Arbitration Eligible (6)

Assuming at least Wells, Soto, and Garza are tendered contracts, the Cubs might be looking at $17MM or so in arbitration salaries.  They might be able to reduce their 2012 obligation by agreeing to an extension with Soto or Garza.

2012 Payroll Obligation

Not counting Ramirez's buyout or Dempster's salary, the Cubs have a 2012 payroll obligation of $56.6MM, significantly below their typical $135MM range.  If Ramirez and Dempster have poor seasons, the Cubs might have to add another $2MM for Ramirez's buyout and $14MM for Dempster's 2012 salary, bringing the obligation to $72.6MM.  The team could have needs in the rotation and at both infield corners, plus a lot of money to spend, so it should be an interesting 2011-12 offseason.

Should They Have Been Non-Tendered?

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On November 2nd of last year I listed 85 non-tender candidates, most of whom were indeed cut loose.  Almost five months have passed since the December non-tender deadline, and I'd like to revisit five of those decisions.

  • Kevin Kouzmanoff, tendered a contract by the Athletics.  The A's certainly shopped around for third base alternatives after tendering a contract to Kouzmanoff, which ended up being for $4.75MM.  So far the third baseman has again been part of the problem, though he's not alone as the team ranks 11th in the AL with 3.63 runs scored per game.  There weren't many alternatives for the A's this offseason, but they probably should have saved Kouzmanoff's money for a trade deadline addition.  They'll still be able to pursue someone, though.
  • James Loney, tendered a contract by the Dodgers.  Loney is already on notice with the Dodgers given the arrival of Jerry Sands.  Loney settled for a predictable $4.875MM salary for 2011.  Sands doesn't actually project to do any better than Loney, but the two are close enough that the Dodgers probably should have traded Loney and used the money elsewhere.
  • Russell Martin, non-tendered by the Dodgers.  According to Yahoo's Steve Henson, Martin wanted a guaranteed $5.5MM rather than the Dodgers' offer of $4.2MM.  GM Ned Colletti made the difficult decision to non-tender Martin, but kept the offer on the table while suggesting a possible super-utility role.  Martin ended up taking less guaranteed money to start at catcher for the Yankees, and he's off to a great start.  The Dodgers could have forced Martin's hand by tendering a contract and arguing for a pay cut through arbitration.  That would have been a risky choice, and Martin's health was a concern at the time, so I can't fault the Dodgers for non-tendering him.
  • Bobby Jenks, non-tendered by the White Sox.  Non-tendering Jenks was the right move given his $7.5MM salary, and the pitcher understood that decision according to MLB.com's Scott Merkin.  However, Jenks and the Sox were not on the same page about the team's desire to retain him and confidence in his abilities, so he signed with Boston.  The White Sox lead baseball with six blown saves, but it was still best for them to part ways with Jenks.
  • Brandon McCarthy, outrighted by the Rangers in November.  If they had retained McCarthy, the Rangers probably would have had to pay him something similar to last year's $1.3MM salary rather than the $1MM he received from the A's.  McCarthy has looked good so far, though it's only been three starts.  The Rangers are second in the AL in starter ERA without McCarthy.  Still, given the strong offseason interest in him I think it would have been best to tender a contract and shop him around.

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