If The Astros Become Sellers
Today is April 19th and the Astros are four games out in the NL Central. It seems rash to count them out entirely, but Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds Report gives the team a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs. Let's see who they could offer in trades a few months from now. The remaining salary figure is calculated as one-third of this year's salary plus any additional salaries and buyouts, so we're assuming players would be dealt around the July 31st trade deadline.
- Carlos Lee, LF/1B: $24.7MM owed through 2012. Since September of 2009, Lee is hitting .248/.290/.415 in 839 plate appearances. He seems more likely to be released than traded. Contenders might view Lee as nothing more than a bench bat, a role with which he could be unhappy.
- Wandy Rodriguez, SP: Up to $38.3MM owed through 2014. Since Wandy is paid only $7MM this year, he'd fit into most contenders' 2011 budgets. His '13 club option becomes a player option with a trade, the salary of which is reflected in the $38.3MM figure. If the 32-year-old is in the midst of a disappointing but not terrible season, the Astros could have a way of getting out of the contract. If he's pitching well, the Astros could get solid players in return.
- Brett Myers, SP: $16.3MM owed through 2012; could become $23.3MM through 2013 if option vests. Like Rodriguez, Myers is earning only $7MM this year. At the least he's an innings eater, and the Astros could extract a decent bounty from a desperate team at the trade deadline. GM Ed Wade holds a couple of excellent trade chips in Rodriguez and Myers, though it remains to be seen if they'll become available.
- Hunter Pence, OF: $2.3MM owed through 2011; arbitration eligible for 2012 and '13. Moving Pence would be unpopular and could decimate an already-questionable offense. Still, after winning his arbitration case in February, Pence is in line for $10MM+ in '12 and even more in '13. If the Astros don't see him as part of their long-term plans, the best time to move him is this summer.
- Brandon Lyon, RP: $7.25MM through 2012. The Astros would have an inexperienced bullpen without Lyon, but Wade has to be willing to make short-term sacrifices. If Lyon is pitching decently in July the Astros have a chance to get out of a contract that makes little sense for them.
- Michael Bourn, CF: $1.5MM through 2011; arbitration eligible for '12. Credible center fielders are hard to come by, and as a Scott Boras client Bourn probably won't be signing an extension with the Astros. The Nationals could be a match.
- Clint Barmes, SS: $1.3MM through 2011. Barmes would like an extension, and considers himself an everyday player. He'd need to play well for a few months to establish trade value.
- Bill Hall, 2B: $1.25MM through 2011. Hall is only through about a tenth of his season, but he'll need to pick it up to prove he should be a regular. An acquiring team might want him back in a super-utility role.
- Jeff Keppinger, IF: $778K through 2011; arbitration eligible for 2012. Keppinger had foot surgery in January and may make his season debut in May. He's probably the Astro most likely to be traded this summer.
2012 Contract Issues: Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series.
Eligible For Free Agency (6)
- The Jays seemingly took Juan Rivera from the Angels as a means of facilitating the Vernon Wells trade. In February they were rumored to be shopping him. If he's still struggling a few months from now a release could be in order.
- Frank Francisco is expected to join the big league club today after dealing with pectoral muscle and shoulder issues. Health is always a concern for Francisco. Though his salary is already at $4MM, I can still see the Jays offering arbitration if a draft pick is involved.
- I'm curious to see whether Shawn Camp has Type A or B status, once Eddie Bajek starts projecting Elias rankings this year.
- Role players John McDonald, Jose Molina, and Corey Patterson are also eligible for free agency.
Contract Options (5)
- Aaron Hill: $8MM club option for 2012, $8MM club option for '13. It's too early to say whether Hill can return to his '09 or '07 form and compel the Jays to pick up one or both of his options.
- Jason Frasor: $3.75MM club option. Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos created flexibility for his 2012 bullpen by getting club options for Frasor, Rauch, and Dotel in the same range. After the season we'll see who's worth keeping around.
- Jon Rauch: $3.75MM club option with a $250K buyout.
- Octavio Dotel: $3.5MM club option with a $750K buyout.
- Edwin Encarnacion: $3.5MM club option with a $500K buyout. If Encarnacion happens to pop 30 home runs for the first time in his career, the Jays can retain him at a bargain price.
Arbitration Eligible (9)
- First time: Jesse Carlson, Jo-Jo Reyes, Jayson Nix
- Second time: Yunel Escobar, Brandon Morrow, Jesse Litsch
- Third time: Carlos Villanueva, Casey Janssen, Dustin McGowan
The first-timers won't necessarily make it to the point of being tendered contracts. Escobar, Morrow, Litsch, Villanueva, and Janssen seem to be the locks here.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Blue Jays' 2012 payroll obligation excluding buyouts is $29.9MM, according to Cot's. Jose Bautista, Adam Lind, and Ricky Romero account for most of that. The club options are mostly unknowns at this point; the obligation could range from a couple million for buyouts to $22.5MM if everyone stays. I'll use $15MM as a ballpark figure for the key arbitration eligible players, putting the team around $47MM if all options are declined. The Blue Jays have kept payroll over $70MM for quite some time, so there's room to exercise some of the options and join the bidding for a few significant free agents.
Quick Hits: Yankees, Crede, D’Backs
Links for Monday night, as recently promoted Dodgers prospect Jerry Sands doubles in his first MLB at bat…
- As Joel Sherman of the New York Post notes, the Yankees’ low-risk veteran signings are paying off now that Eric Chavez, Russell Martin and others are contributing to wins.
- In a conversation with Beerleaguer, Joe Crede praised White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf for re-signing A.J. Pierzynski and Paul Konerko this offseason.
- D'Backs GM Kevin Towers told MLB.com's Steve Gilbert that he plans on seeing a handful of players in preparation for the June draft. Towers will take a look at some top players the organization could select with the No. 3 and 7 picks, though Arizona executives Jerry Dipoto and Ray Montgomery will run the draft room.
- One of the players on Arizona’s radar is Virginia left-hander Danny Hultzen, who told me today that he wouldn’t prevent the D’Backs from selecting him this year. They chose him in 2008, so he technically has to provide permission for Arizona to select him again.
- As Evan Drellich points out at MLB.com, a number of notable players retired this offseason, including Carlos Delgado, Trevor Hoffman, Gary Sheffield and Mike Hampton.
Draft Prospect Q&A: Danny Hultzen
As the 2011 Draft draws closer, MLBTR will be introducing you to a handful of the top eligible prospects with a series of Q&As. The series started with three of the top college pitchers in the nation and a top college position player. Here's another arm to watch.
Danny Hultzen was the ACC pitcher of the year and a semi-finalist for the Golden Spikes Award last year, but even he is a little surprised by how well the 2011 season is going. The Virginia left-hander has helped lead the Cavaliers to a 36-3 record and the top ranking in the country thanks to his arm and his bat.
Baseball America's Midseason Player of the Year is climbing up draft boards and may be the third-best draft prospect in the country behind Anthony Rendon and Gerrit Cole. ESPN.com's Keith Law reported last week that the D'Backs, Orioles and Royals are among the teams eyeing Hultzen. Anyone picking much later on can likely forget about him, since he doesn't figure to be available for long.
Earlier today I spoke to the 21-year-old about his team's title hopes, his two-way play and the draft. Here's what he had to say:
Red Sox Notes: Gonzalez, Ramirez, Scutaro
The Red Sox beat the Blue Jays today, so they have now won three consecutive games for the first time all season. Here's the latest on the Red Sox:
- Cork Gaines of Business Insider notes that the Red Sox saved $4.6MM by waiting until last week to extend Adrian Gonzalez. Because of the luxury tax, it would have been expensive for Boston to announce Gonzalez's extension much earlier.
- The Red Sox have only signed only player for more money than the $154MM they committed to Gonzalez: Manny Ramirez signed for $160MM as a free agent in 2000. Earlier today, Jim Callis of Baseball America dug up some old scouting reports on Ramirez, whose bat stood out, even as a high schooler.
- Manny went 13th overall to the Indians in the 1991 draft, which I took a closer look at last week.
- Marco Scutaro told Alex Speier of WEEI.com that he doesn't mind sitting more while the red-hot Jed Lowrie plays regularly. Lowrie and Jose Iglesias could push Scutaro out of Boston within the next year, but the Red Sox are likely glad to have him on the roster at this point.
- Be sure to check out Tim Dierkes' review of Boston's offseason.
Dodgers Designate Xavier Paul For Assignment
The Dodgers announced (on Twitter) that they designated Xavier Paul for assignment to create roster space for Jerry Sands.
Paul, 26, appeared in seven games as a corner outfielder and pinch hitter his year, picking up three hits in his 11 trips to the plate. Last year, the 2003 fourth round selection hit .231/.277/.314 in 133 plate appearances and played left and right field.
Sands, 23, has five home runs and a .400/.422/.875 line in the early going at Triple-A. Albuquerque is a good place to hit, but Sands' power should translate to other parks. He hit 35 homers in Double-A and Class A last year, posting a .981 OPS in 590 total plate appearances. He placed sixth on Baseball America's preseason list of top Dodgers prospects because of his "plus power to all fields." He profiles as a solid everyday left fielder or first baseman, according to BA.
Nationals Eyeing Center Fielders
The Nationals are looking for potential upgrades in center field, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Though they have options in center, they are considering possible moves.
They recently traded Nyjer Morgan to the Brewers, making Rick Ankiel the everyday center fielder. Ankiel struggles to hit lefties (career .658 OPS against southpaws) and the versatile Jerry Hairston Jr. is hitting just .154/.267/.308 so far. Club officials have mixed opinions about Triple-A center fielder Roger Bernadina, according to Rosenthal.
Though the Rays will not consider trading B.J. Upton unless they fall out of contention, the Nationals would figure to have interest in acquiring him if he became available, Rosenthal writes. Upton, 26, earns $4.825MM this year and is set to hit free agency after 2012.
Brian Schlitter Returned To Cubs
The commissioner's office returned Phillies right-hander Brian Schlitter to the Cubs because of past injury, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer (on Twitter). The Phillies claimed Schlitter from the Yankees in February, a month after the Yankees claimed him from the Cubs, but those claims are now void.
The Phillies placed Schlitter on the disabled list with a right flexor pronator strain at the end of Spring Training, retroactive to March 22nd. He has yet to appear in a pro game this year.
Schlitter appeared in seven games for the Cubs last year and gave up 18 hits and five walks in eight innings, striking out seven. He spent most of the season at Triple-A Iowa, where he posted a 3.15 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 45 2/3 innings in his first season at the highest level of the minors.
Rosenthal On Tigers, Reyes, Trout, White Sox
The Rockies, who are about to start a series with the defending World Champions, have baseball's best record so far this year. GM Dan O'Dowd told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that the team's resilience has contributed to its fast start. “We’re a confident, persistent club,” O’Dowd said. Troy Tulowitzki's hot streak hasn't hurt, either. Here are the rest of Rosenthal's rumors:
- One scout who has followed the Tigers this year predicts that they'll be looking for pitching help later this season. At some point minor leaguers Andy Oliver and Jacob Turner could help the Tigers, who are 12th in the AL with 77 runs allowed.
- A rival official says Mets GM Sandy Alderson will not offer Jose Reyes $100MM to stay in New York. It appears likely that Reyes will be on the trading block this summer, so MLBTR's Steve Adams recently outlined some possible destinations for him.
- Scouts are high on Angels prospect Mike Trout, praising his baserunning instincts, speed and power.
- Jason Marquis is a potential trade candidate, according to Rosenthal. The Nationals' right-hander has a 3.26 ERA in three starts so far this season.
- The White Sox don't plan to look outside of the organization for bullpen help at this point, despite their issues holding leads late in games.
Heyman On Young, Emaus, Rays, Wilson, Melky
The Rangers were close to sending Michael Young to the Rockies for two young players before the season, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. The deal didn’t go through, but the Rangers appear to have assured the Rockies that they’ll have the first chance to acquire Young if he becomes available once again. Here are the rest of Heyman’s rumors:
- One GM told Heyman that Mets Rule 5 selection Brad Emaus looks like a Quadruple A player.
- The Rays could have interest in adding a hitter now that Manny Ramirez isn’t around and Heyman suggests Chris Davis would be a fit. I wrote last month that the Rays are one team that could have interest in the first baseman if the Rangers make him available.
- C.J. Wilson could ask for $82.5MM on his next contract, as Heyman points out. The left-hander hits free agency after the season and could compare himself to A.J. Burnett and John Lackey in negotiations with the Rangers and/or other clubs.
- Alex Rodriguez worked out with Melky Cabrera this offseason and “begged” the Yankees to sign the outfielder to no avail.
- The Orioles are “very high” on Jake Arrieta, the 25-year-old who made 18 starts as a rookie in 2010 and remains in Baltimore’s rotation.

