Archives for June 2011

Mets Notes: Draft, DePodesta, Wright

By Mark Polishuk | June 6, 2011 at 11:31am CDT

Despite all the drama, ownership issues, trade rumors and injuries at Citi Field this year, the Mets have a 28-31 record and sit just five games out of the NL wild card. Newsday's David Lennon wonders if "can [Sandy] Alderson afford to deal away the likes of [Jose] Reyes and [Carlos] Beltran if the Mets are still showing a pulse, however faint, for a playoff spot?" In my opinion, the Mets shouldn't fool themselves into thinking they're true contenders. Putting off a rebuild for a longshot chance at the postseason is the kind of short-term thinking that has put the Mets in this tough situation in the first place.

Some more Amazin' items…

The Mets have traditionally stuck close to MLB's slotting recommendations, but this year are prepared to pay above slot if necessary, reports Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal. Costa notes that Alderson was one of the MLB executives involved in creating the original slotting system in 2000.
As noted in Costa's piece, only the White Sox have spent less on the draft than the Mets have in the last five years. The Mets spent $3.9MM to sign their picks from the first 10 rounds of the 2010 draft, which was roughly 4% above slot, mostly due to Matt Harvey's $2.5MM bonus.
Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger profiles Paul DePodesta, the Mets' VP of scouting and player development and the man in charge of running the club's draft operations.
The Mets "owe it" to David Wright to trade him, writes Bill Madden of the New York Daily News. Madden compares Wright's situation to that of Hubie Brooks, another popular Mets third baseman who didn't want to leave New York when the team dealt him to Montreal in December 1984. The Mets received Gary Carter back in that trade, however, "and you have to believe Alderson has been entertaining the same thoughts about a Wright deal being potentially similarly transforming," Madden writes.

Keith Law’s Final Mock Draft

By Dan Mennella | June 6, 2011 at 10:36am CDT

Keith Law of ESPN.com has written up his final projections for tonight's draft. Here are some of the latest highlights (Insider subscription needed):

The D'Backs select UCLA righty Trevor Bauer with the No. 3 pick, meaning two of the first three picks will be Bruins after the Pirates take Gerrit Cole at No. 1 overall.
The Orioles, turned off by Virginia lefty Danny Hultzen's hefty contract demands, take prep righty Archie Bradley out of Oklahoma at No. 4. Dylan Bundy then falls to the Royals at No. 5, which Law says would be a steal, and Hultzen slides back to the D'Backs at No. 7, a "dream scenario" for Arizona. That could lead to tricky negotiations considering Hultzen's demands and the fact that the pick is unprotected after Barret Loux didn't sign last year, but Bauer and Hultzen would represent quite a boon to the D'Backs' rotation in the near future.
The Mets meet their organizational mandate to take a pitcher at No. 13, selecting UConn righty Matt Barnes.
The Brewers, with an unprotected pick at No. 15, need to take a signable player, and may be looking at Vanderbilt righty Sonny Gray or Oregon lefty Tyler Anderson.
The Red Sox probably won't spend too wildly at No. 19 and could focus on a high-probability player like Alex Meyer of Kentucky as they did a year ago with Kolbrin Vitek.

Draft Links: Cole, Orioles, Phillies, Cardinals

By Dan Mennella | June 6, 2011 at 9:47am CDT

The day of the First-Year Player Draft is finally upon us. Here's the latest news and rumors as tonight's event draws nearer …

The Pirates, as has been speculated for several days, will take UCLA righty Gerrit Cole with the No. 1 overall pick, according to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.
The Orioles have long been linked to prep pitcher Dylan Bundy out of Oklahoma with the No. 4 pick, but they may be shifting focus to Archie Bradley, another prep pitcher, writes Steve Melewski of MASNSports.com.
Ed Barkowitz of Philly.com identifies TCU lefty Matt Purke as a possibility for the Phillies with their first pick, No. 39. Purke, who was a first-round pick of the Rangers in 2009 but didn't sign, has seen his stock tumble as a result of shoulder troubles.
Because the Cardinals have only one pick on Day 1 of the draft and only two in the top 100, they're less likely to take risky players, writes Nathan Hart of the St. Louis Post Dispatch. The Redbirds are tentatively planning to take a position player, though that is not definite.
The Rangers are looking at Massachusetts prep righty Tyler Beede, writes Jamey Newberg of the Newberg Report, noting how difficult it can be to accurately predict draft picks.
The Rockies are still on Utah first baseman C.J. Cron at No. 20, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post (via Twitter).
It's never too late to draft a superstar, writes Jeff Passan of Yahoo!, who runs down some of the best steals in draft history.
The Dodgers worked out Trevor Gretzky, Wayne's son, and Ryan Garvey, Steve's son, on Sunday, writes Ken Gurnick of MLB.com, though both players have committed to college.
Red Sox outfielder Darnell McDonald has had a strange journey through the minors, which is why drafting two-sport stars is tricky, writes Mike Petraglia of WEEI.com. Ryan Hannable, also of WEEI.com, has tallied up the experts' projections for the Red Sox's draft picks.
Owning the first overall pick in the draft does not guarantee future success, writes Rob Neyer of SBNation.com.

Ryan Vogelsong’s Remarkable Run

By Steve Adams | June 5, 2011 at 10:07pm CDT

It's been almost exactly 13 years since Ryan Vogelsong signed his first contract. A fifth round selection by the Giants in 1998, Vogelsong signed on June 7 that year and began his professional career. After posting strong strikeout numbers throughout his first three minor league seasons, Vogelsong was included in a package that sent Jason Schmidt from Pittsburgh to San Francisco in 2001.

After making two appearances with the Pirates that season, Vogelsong required Tommy John surgery at age 24. Things went downhill from there, to say the least. He returned in 2003 and posted passable numbers in the minors, but struggled in the Majors that season and through his next three with the Pirates, posting a 5.87 ERA over 274 1/3 innings of work.

Following the 2006 season, Vogelsong, then 29, headed to Japan and spent three years there, pitching for the Hanshin Tigers and Orix Buffaloes with solid but unspectacular results. After coming back to the United States, he was released by both the Phillies and Angels last year after signing a pair of minor league deals.

Vogelsong didn't get his own post on MLBTR when he signed a minor league deal with the Giants this offseason. In fact, he didn't even have his own tag prior to this one. But what Vogelsong has done this year is a prime example of the value of minor league deals.

Over his last 39 1/3 innings of work, Vogelsong has allowed three earned runs, striking out 29 and walking only seven. In total, he's pitched 53 2/3 innings of 1.68 ERA ball. His 2.83 FIP and 3.64 xFIP entering play today suggest that while he hasn't been quite that good, he's still been very, very good. His fastball may not be overpowering (averaging 91.1mph), but he's mixed his pitches well enough to have struck out seven hitters per nine innings. The 42 strikeouts he's totaled are three times that of the 14 walks he's allowed.

Earlier today Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News wrote that manager Bruce Bochy said Vogelsong's rotation spot is secure, even when Barry Zito, for whom he's been filling in, returns. And, as Baggarly points out, it's not unreasonable to consider an All-Star bid for the journeyman.

Whether or not Vogelsong continues what's been a remarkable run at age 33, he should still serve as a reminder to all fans who cringe at seeing a perhaps washed-up name sign with their favorite team. Minor league deals and non-roster invites carry very little risk, but the potential for reward is sky-high. Just ask Ryan Vogelsong.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

MLBTR Originals – 5/29/11 – 6/4/11

By Steve Adams | June 5, 2011 at 8:30pm CDT

Here's a look back at some of the original content from the MLBTR team this past week:

Ben Nicholson-Smith examined Jose Valverde's $9MM club option for the 2012 season and tackled the implications of Jordan Lyles' big league debut for the Astros.
Ben also took a look at what the declining production of designated hitters will mean for David Ortiz as he approaches free agency this offseason and gave an update on this year's Rule 5 Draft picks.
Tim Dierkes' 2012 Contract Issue series came to a conclusion with this piece on the Twins. You can see the whole list (with brief summaries) here.
Tim also listed some potentially available power bats and starting pitchers, and looked at what would happen it the D'Backs become buyers and/or the Cubs became sellers.
For draft-related content, Ben interviewed Blue Jays' amateur scouting director Andrew Tinnish and also interviewed former general manager and current Rangers senior advisor/MLB Network analyst John Hart before taking a look at the Phillies' approach to the draft.
Meanwhile, Tim introduced readers to the six college right-handers who are all in the Top 20 lists of ESPN's Keith Law, Baseball America, and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus.
Mike Axisa rounded up the latest and greatest from the blogosphere in this week's edition of Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
Dan Mennella checked in on Lance Berkman's free agent stock and predicted a deal similar to Aubrey Huff's latest contract for Big Puma if he stays healthy and productive.
Here's the transcript of this week's chat, hosted by Tim.
Nearly three quarters of MLBTR readers thought at least one of this season's surprise teams, the Indians and Diamondbacks, would remain in contention for the long haul in a poll conducted this week.

Week In Review: 5/29/11 – 6/4/11

By Steve Adams | June 5, 2011 at 7:14pm CDT

We're just one day away from the MLB Draft! Let's take a look back at the week that led up to it:

The Astros released their biggest offseason signing, Bill Hall, after he produced just a .224/.272/.240 line. Houston inked Hall to a one-year deal worth $3MM with a $4MM mutual option last winter.
It was announced this week that Daisuke Matsuzaka will require Tommy John surgery, meaning his days with the Red Sox could be done.
In other Tommy John news, the Royals announced that top prospect John Lamb will require the procedure. That move comes as a big blow to Kansas City; Lamb ranked 18th on Baseball America's list of Top 100 prospects entering the season.
A handful of minor trades this week: the Twins acquired Jeremy Reed for future considerations, the Padres acquired Steve Tolleson for a player to be named later, and the Diamondbacks acquired Lucas May for minor leaguer Andrea Pizziconi.
The Yankees will explore trades to improve their rotation and perhaps add a left-handed reliever this summer, while the Diamondbacks will be on the lookout for bullpen help.
One popular name on the bullpen front will likely be Heath Bell, and he's already drawing interest from the Cardinals.
The Nationals are looking for center fielders and leadoff hitters and have inquired on Michael Bourn, though the talks didn't go anywhere.
There have been trade rumors swirling around Jose Reyes' name for months, but the Mets could potentially trade David Wright instead of Reyes. If that were to occur, Wright's 2013 club option would become invalid, as it only applies if he's playing for the Mets.
It's never too early to think about the offseason, and we heard this week that the Orioles are poised to be big spenders this winter, with Prince Fielder being a potential top target.
Hideki Okajima, who has been pitching well since being demoted to Triple-A, is hoping that the Red Sox will trade him.
Curious about your team's plans for the draft? We presented seven different roundups of draft notes this week, so be sure to check them out and brush up before the big day.
Nothing about the draft is set in stone until it happens, but there was a report this week that the Pirates have decided to draft UCLA right-hander Gerrit Cole first overall.
Plenty of minor moves this week: the Mariners released Manny Delcarmen (the Rangers signed him days later), the Orioles designated Jake Fox for assignment, and the White Sox did the same with Dallas McPherson. To see all of the week's minor moves and keep up in the future, click our Transactions tag, follow @mlbtrtrans on Twitter, or use MLBTR's Transaction Tracker.
Lastly, a look at the latest update to the Elias Rankings.

Quick Hits: Reyes, Pirates, Garvey-Hershiser

By Dan Mennella | June 5, 2011 at 6:06pm CDT

A few items of note for Sunday afternoon. On this day in 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays selected Tim Beckham with the No. 1 overall pick in the First-Year Player Draft.

ESPN's Adam Rubin shares a video interview with Jose Reyes in which the Mets shortstop says he doesn't think about the constant trade rumors surrounding him because all he can control is his on-field performance.
Mike Pelfrey told Mark Hale of the New York Post that it would be tough for him as an individual, tough for the team, and tough for the fans to lose Reyes, whom he deems irreplaceable.
MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch covers the additional lefty relief options the Pirates have in Triple-A, and says that if a roster move needs to be made in order to appease manager Clint Hurdle's desire for another southpaw, Jose Ascanio is the most likely to be designated for assignment.
A Dodgers sale is not yet imminent, but Orel Hershiser has joined Steve Garvey and others, forming the Garvey-Hershiser Group, in hopes of bidding on the team should it be put up for sale by MLB, writes Jeff Painter of the Los Angeles Daily News. The Dodgers could be made for sale if Frank McCourt can't make the next payroll payments, according to Painter. Reports of Garvey's interest in purchasing the Dodgers first surfaced when MLB seized control of the team in April.
Red Sox right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka, slated for Tommy John surgery this week, hopes to "come back to the game with the Red Sox uniform," writes Mike Petraglia of WEEI.com. Since it typically takes pitchers at least a calendar year to return from the surgery, Dice-K, whose six-year contract expires after 2012, may have played his last game for Boston and perhaps in MLB.
The Phillies' debt situation is broken down by David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News in the wake of Friday's news that the Phils are one of nine teams in violation of MLB's debt service rules. The takeaway: The Phils are in relatively solid financial standing, as the franchise is paid off, with their current debt representing only a "momentary hiccup," writes Murphy.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Lance Berkman

By Dan Mennella | June 5, 2011 at 4:35pm CDT

Most eyes are on Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder as it pertains to the upcoming class of free-agent first basemen, and rightly so. However, Pujols' teammate Lance Berkman, who signed a one-year, $8MM deal with the Redbirds in the offseason, bears watching, too.

Through his first two months in St. Louis, Berkman has largely regained the stroke that made him one of baseball's best and most consistent sluggers during the first decade of his career. His season line stood at .329/.444/.599 entering Sunday's game against the Cubs, which is vastly better than the .248/.368/.413 he posted during an injury-marred 2010 that he split between the Astros and Yankees.

Some regression is to be expected this season considering Berkman's career line of .297/.410/.547, but clearly a steep decline is not underway as 2010 may have indicated. However, 2012 will Berkman's age-36 season, and although he's playing the outfield now with St. Louis, he's best suited for first base or perhaps even DH, a role he filled during his time with the Yanks. As it is, he's been getting fairly regular rest as he works around various nagging ailments.

So, what does this mean for his Berkman's prospects on the free-agent market? Of course, a lot could happen between now and then, but barring injury, I think the Big Puma will be looking at a deal comparable to the one Aubrey Huff signed with the Giants last offseason: two years, $22MM, and perhaps some kind of option. Berkman has a more distinguished career than Huff, of course, but he is older and has had injury concerns the past couple years. As well, Berkman will be viewed as third-best free-agent first baseman after Pujols and Fielder. Carlos Pena, who is younger but not as good of a hitter as Berkman, will draw interest too.

With a lot of variables at play here – such as the Cards' dealings with Pujols, Berkman's health and his red-hot start – it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Draft Links: Royals, Pirates, Phillies

By Dan Mennella | June 5, 2011 at 1:46pm CDT

Here's the latest as we close in on Monday's First-Year Player Draft …

The Royals will be tempted to take prep outfielder Bubba Starling from Kansas with the No. 5 overall pick, writes Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. The Royals are thought to covet a polished pitcher so that he can help the big league team sooner than later, according to Dodd, but they've smarted over missing out on local products Albert Pujols and Logan Morrison in the recent past, and GM Dayton Moore has discussed the importance of snatching up local talent.
The Pirates' indecision about which pricey college player to take select at No. 1 overall — Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon are represented by Scott Boras, while Danny Hultzen is reportedly seeking $13MM — has some baseball people wondering whether they'll take a prep player like Starling or Dylan Bundy in order to preserve their draft budget and overpay for tough-to-sign players at later picks, writes Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune. Also within that piece, Rogers examines some of the crucial selections of the past 10 drafts.
The Phillies are charged with restocking their farm despite making their first pick at No. 39, writes Bob Brookover of Philly.com. The fact that many of the Phils' core players are homegrown and others were acquired with prospects is a testament to the scouting and development departments, according to Brookover.
The Royals could also select UConn right-hander Matt Barnes with the fifth overall pick, writes Stephen Goff of the Houston Examiner. Within that piece, Goff explains Barners' unforeseen ascent to likely top-10 selection.
The Astros were once interested in Texas A&M righty John Stilson at No. 11, according to Goff, but the hurler has generally slipped out of first-round consideration due to a shoulder injury. As a result, Stilson is now a deep sleeper, writes Goff.
Jonathan May of MLB.com published his latest mock draft today, with Cole, Rendon and Hultzen going at Nos. 1, 2 and 3 to the Pirates, Mariners and D'Backs, respectively.
Four of six industry experts polled said they prefer Cole to Trevor Bauer of the two UCLA Bruins, but it's closer than you think, writes Tom Krasovic.

Pirates Notes: Cole, Draft, Trade Deadline

By Luke Adams 2 | June 5, 2011 at 12:28pm CDT

The Pirates set an attendance record Saturday night, drawing 39,441 fans, a PNC Park high. Those in attendance saw the hometown Bucs beat the team atop the National League standings for a second straight game. With a win today, Pittsburgh would sweep the Phillies and reach .500. Let's check out the latest Pirates-related links….

ESPN.com's Buster Olney (Insider link) says "the betting is very heavy" the Pirates will take Gerrit Cole with the first overall pick in tomorrow's draft, as Dejan Kovacevic reported yesterday. If they decide to go another direction though, there are plenty of viable options, writes Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Pirates president Frank Coonelly tells Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that the team is once again prepared to spend big on the draft, as they have in recent years. Coonelly points out that with potential changes to baseball's collective bargaining agreement looming, draftees may be more inclined to sign this year rather than take their chances under a new system next year.
Within the same piece, Coonelly says it's too early to know whether the Pirates will be buyers or sellers at this July's trade deadline: "If we're in the hunt and the club has needs, we have the financial flexibility to look for pieces to help the club win this year."

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