Rosenthal On Diamondbacks, Cubs, Royals
The latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…
- Former Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes talked about the work of successor Kevin Towers: "Obviously, there were some holes on the roster that needed to be addressed. Kevin addressed them very well. The bullpen killed the team in 2010. He made that group a lot better." Arizona's bullpen ranks ninth in the National League with a 3.62 ERA, after placing last in '10 with a 5.74 mark. Towers methods varied – David Hernandez was acquired in the Mark Reynolds trade, J.J. Putz received a big free agent deal, Joe Paterson came in the Rule 5 draft, and Micah Owings was signed to a minor league deal. Free agent signing Aaron Heilman was the only bust; subtract his 35 1/3 innings and the bullpen's ERA drops to 3.32.
- Cubs owner Tom Ricketts should not have given a four-year extension to vice president of player personnel Oneri Fleita before hiring a new GM, opines Rosenthal. Rosenthal writes that Ricketts has "already diminished the power of his next GM."
- Signing a major free agent starting pitcher is "almost out of the question" for the Royals this offseason.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Rich Harden
In the 2009-10 offseason, the Athletics guaranteed $12MM to injury-risk starting pitchers Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer. For 2010-11, the A's made their major commitments to relievers Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour, but also picked up starters Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy for a total of $2.5MM. So far in 2011, the two righty starters have combined for a tidy 3.76 ERA in 206 innings.
Less than a third of those innings have come from Harden, who developed a lat injury in February and didn't make his season debut until July 1st. Since then Harden has made all of his scheduled starts, 11 of them heading into today's action. He seemed headed to Boston on July 30th, but the Red Sox saw something they didn't like in his medical files and killed the trade. Whatever they saw hasn't been an issue yet, as Harden made six starts in August and struck out 42. During that time the Indians won a claim on Harden, but he again stayed put.
After a terrible 2010 with the Rangers, Harden appears to have returned to the formula that worked relatively well for him in '08 and '09: a huge strikeout rate, limited hits, lots of walks, and a lot of home runs allowed. Though this approach has led to only a 4.55 ERA in 63 1/3 innings, Harden's 3.39 SIERA ranks fifth among impending free agent starting pitchers with at least 60 innings – just behind Bartolo Colon, C.J. Wilson, and Erik Bedard – though the innings cutoff was designed to include him. Harden's 10.2 K/9 is easily tops among free agent starters, and ranks third in baseball overall.
In 2008-09, Harden showed the ability to provide about 150 innings per season. However, after '10 and '11, teams might have to lower their expectation to 100 innings. Harden seems likely to continue signing one-year deals for the duration of his career, unless he takes off as a reliever at some point. His last two free agent contracts guaranteed $7.5MM and $1.5MM, and I think we can split the difference and expect a guarantee in the $4.5MM range for 2012. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has reported that Harden would be happy to return to the A's next year, so perhaps they'll get a bit of a discount.
Quick Hits: McGowan, Kuo, Edwin Jackson
Five years ago today, the Athletics claimed righty Jerome Williams off waivers from the Cubs. Williams pitched 30 innings for the Nationals the following year, but then didn't pitch in the Majors until last month with the Angels. Williams went through a lot in the meantime, and considers his return to the bigs "a fairy tale." On to today's Labor Day links…
- Dustin McGowan makes for another nice story; the Blue Jays reinstated him from the 60-day DL today. The former first-round pick once seemed on the cusp of big things, but he hasn't pitched in the Majors in more than three years due to a pair of surgeries on his right shoulder. He'll be one of seven arbitration eligible Blue Jays, but McGowan won't cost much to retain.
- Dodgers reliever Hong-Chih Kuo is learning to manage his anxiety better, and intends to pitch next year, writes Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times. If the Dodgers tender Kuo a contract, he'll earn at least $2.18MM in 2012.
- Free agency will be "interesting," Cardinals starter Edwin Jackson tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Scott Boras client, who turns 28 on Friday, has a 3.78 ERA on the season and is on track to make 30+ starts for the fifth consecutive year.
- Reliever Bobby Jenks is probably done for the season, Red Sox manager Terry Francona told WEEI's Rob Bradford and others today. The big righty signed a two-year, $12MM deal after being non-tendered by the White Sox in December, but pitched only 15 2/3 innings for Boston due to a back injury.
Red Sox Designate Drew Sutton For Assignment
The Red Sox swapped out utility men today, designating Drew Sutton for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for Nate Spears, tweets WEEI's Rob Bradford.
Both players were signed by the Red Sox to minor league deals in December. Sutton bounced up and down with the Red Sox this year, and then dislocated his finger and needed surgery last month. The 28-year-old hit .315/.362/.444 in his 60 plate appearances with the big club and has a .295/.382/.476 line at Triple-A. This year he's played all around the infield and at the outfield corners.
Arbitration Eligibles: Detroit Tigers
So far in our arbitration eligibles series we've covered all of the AL East: the Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays. Now we take on the AL Central starting with the Tigers.
- First time: Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Phil Coke, Don Kelly, Brad Thomas
- Second time: None
- Third time: Delmon Young
I can see the Tigers tendering contracts to all but Thomas. Porcello and Kelly project to be arbitration eligible as Super Twos. Starters Porcello and Scherzer should get nice first-time salaries in the $4MM range. Porcello, especially, is helped by a pre-arbitration salary of $1.536MM owing to the Major League deal he signed out of high school. Kelly might get around $700K, while Coke projects at $1.4MM. Thomas has battled elbow issues for most of the year, and the Tigers tried to outright him but had to put him on the 60-day DL. He's likely to be cut prior to the non-tender deadline.
Young's non-tender candidacy was a factor in his trade to the Tigers. His power has bounced back in 89 plate appearances with Detroit, though he's yet to draw a walk. If you look at Young's current 2011 counting stats – 7 home runs, 49 RBIs, 39 runs – they should lead to a relatively meager raise. We're thinking a $725K bump to a $6.1MM salary, a gamble the Tigers might take if they like what they see for the rest of the year.
If the Tigers retain Jose Valverde for $9MM and tender contracts to all arbitration eligibles, they'd have just under $100MM in 2012 commitments. With a 2011 Opening Day payroll of $107MM, the Tigers would have to trade someone or raise payroll to 2008-10 levels to be able to add a prominent free agent or two.
The Top Free Agent At Each Position
You can survey our free agent list for the upcoming offseason here. Today let's attempt to determine the best as each position.
- Catcher: Yadier Molina's option will be exercised, leaving Ramon Hernandez as the best available. Hernandez hasn't played in 100 games since '08, but he still easily tops a list of mostly backups at the position.
- First base: Prince Fielder has drawn more walks this year, but I still have to give the nod to Albert Pujols. Pujols began the year with a couple off of months and injured his wrist in June, but he's still among the game's best players.
- Second base: Robinson Cano's option will be exercised, and Brandon Phillips appears likely. Despite a lousy offensive year, Kelly Johnson might be the best second baseman standing.
- Shortstop: I like Jimmy Rollins, but I don't think you can argue for anyone other than Jose Reyes.
- Third base: The market for third basemen is terrible, but Aramis Ramirez remains a quality option.
- Left field: There's not much here, but Josh Willingham continues to display good power in a tough ballpark.
- Center field: His season hasn't been amazing, but Coco Crisp looks like the best available. I might prefer Grady Sizemore, but I think his option will be picked up.
- Right field: This is a position with significant free agent talent: Lance Berkman, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Carlos Beltran, even after Nick Swisher's option is exercised. This is a tough call, but I'll take Beltran. Berkman and Cuddyer could potentially enter the mix for other positions, if they're flexible on that front.
- Designated hitter: David Ortiz is the clear choice here.
- Starting pitcher: C.J. Wilson may represent better value, but C.C. Sabathia will be the best available starting pitcher if he opts out of his Yankees contract. If Sabathia re-ups quickly then Wilson would have the honors, unless Yu Darvish mounts a challenge.
- Closer: With all due respect to Ryan Madson, Jonathan Papelbon is the man here.
- Right-handed setup man: I expect Madson to continue closing, leaving our setup bracket wide open. Joel Peralta is a respectable choice, while Kerry Wood and others also merit consideration.
- Lefty reliever: Tim Byrdak, Mike Gonzalez, and George Sherrill have been tough on fellow lefties, but Darren Oliver is my pick.
Quick Hits: Mets, Darvish, Ozzie
A few stray items of note as a quiet Sunday winds down on this holiday weekend:
- A Mets official told Joel Sherman of the New York Post that the organization's high-ranking officials have been discussing the possibility of going into complete rebuild mode in 2012 rather than piecing together a passable team and selling it to the fans as a playoff contender if everything breaks right. It's already widely accepted that the Mets will reduce payroll from this season's $140MM down to the $110-100MM range, but Sherman's source makes it sound like it could be even more than that.
- Is Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish worth the potential $100MM a team might have to spend to acquire his services? David Brown of Yahoo!'s Big League Stew looks at that question.
- One factor that could dissuade the White Sox from firing manager Ozzie Guillen is the possibility of him landing with the Cubs and helping to make them a winner, tweets Pedro Gomez of ESPN.com.
Rosenthal On Bedard, Papi, Gonzalez, Berkman
Here are some interesting tidbits courtesy of Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com:
- The Red Sox wanted to acquire then Mariners starter Erik Bedard so badly that they tried to trade for the lefty while he was still on the disabled list in July. Fortuitously, Bedard threw a simulated game at Fenway Park when the M's were in Boston on July 23, shortly before his return from the DL. So, the Red Sox had a good chance to scout him before making an offer to Seattle and consummating the eventual trade.
- Offseason negotiations between impending free agent David Ortiz and Boston "will not necessarily go smoothly," opines Rosenthal. The Red Sox will want to limit the years on a new deal for Papi, while the DH will seek a multiyear pact and a raise on his $12.5MM annaul salary.
- Rangers lefty Mike Gonzalez, acquired last week from the Orioles, could be a huge pickup for Texas, which lacks a lefty killer in its bullpen.
- Texas was serious about acquiring Lance Berkman from the Cardinals, but the Big Puma didn't want to be a rental player for the second consecutive year, according to Rosenthal, and St. Louis wanted to retain the veteran slugger in hopes of re-signing him this offseason.
MLBTR Originals: 8/28/11 – 9/3/11
A look back at the originals pieces we published here at MLBTR last week …
- Orioles center fielder Adam Jones is an extension candidate, according to Tim Dierkes.
- How does Ricky Romero's extension look one year later? Ben Nicholson-Smith examines.
- Jose Reyes' final month of the season is crucial to his foray into free agency, according to Ben.
- Will Rangers lefty C.J. Wilson get a $100MM contract in free agency this offseason? Tim has a look.
- It's never too soon to start looking ahead to next year's draft. We've reversed the standings to get an idea of where each time might be picking in June 2012.
- Our GM Candidates series continued with Nats assistant GM Bryan Minniti, courtesy of Ben.
- Our Arbitration Eligibles series continued with the AL East: the Toronto Blue Jays, the Tampa Bay Rays, and the New York Yankees.
- The free-agent market will be flooded with relievers this offseason. Tim has a preliminary look at the closer carousel.
- Tim conducted the weekly MLBTR chat. Here's the transcript.
- If you're wondering which teams are interested in Yu Darvish, Ben compiled a list.
- The latest Elias rankings update was released.
- Mike Axisa rounded up some of the best pieces from around baseball's blogosphere. Among the hot topics: The Mariners, Adam Dunn, and the Giants.
- Edwin Encarnacion has been en fuego for a couple months now. Will the Blue Jays exercise his 2012 option? Ben has a look.
- Howard Megdal recalled 1993, the year that September trades mattered. Ben also looked at some notable September trades that have gone down in recent years.
- Mike Axisa identified Rays outfielder Desmond Jennings as a potential extension candidate, as well.
- Mark Polishuk looked at Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero as an extension candidate.
Week In Review: 8/28/11 – 9/3/11
We're less then a month from postseason baseball, and we saw several deals this past week with the August 31st deadline to acquire playoff-eligible players. Let's run it all down:
- The Red Sox acquired Conor Jackson from the Athletics in exchange for minor leaguer Jason Rice. Acquired for bench depth, Jackson actually left today's game after a collision with the wall in right field.
- The Braves made a pair of acquisitions this week. They first struck a deal with the Pirates to bring back Matt Diaz in exchange for a player to be named later or cash, and later acquired Jack Wilson from the Mariners for a player to be named later.
- The Rangers also made two trades on the 31st, and like Atlanta, one included bringing back a familiar face. Texas sent cash to the Royals to bring back Matt Treanor, and they sent a player to be named later to the Orioles in exchange for Mike Gonzalez. The PTBNL wound up being Pedro Strop later in the week.
- In other Rangers news, Koji Uehara saw his $4MM option for 2012 vest when he appeared in his 55th game of the season.
- The Giants cut ties with a pair of veterans this week when they designated both Aaron Rowand and Miguel Tejada for assignment. In DFAing this pair, the Giants have agreed to eat a whopping $14.8MM in remaining salary.
- The Mets acquired Adrian Rosario and Danny Herrera from the Brewers to complete July's Francisco Rodriguez trade.
- Dodgers owner Frank McCourt reportedly received a $1.2 billion dollar offer to buy the club, but MLB is skeptical of the offer.
- The Mariners reached a deal on a two-year contract extension with general manager Jack Zduriencik.
- Long-time White Sox skipper Ozzie Guillen wants a contract extension, and is prepared to part ways with the organization if he isn't accommodated. The Sox could revisit trade discussions with the Marlins in what would be an incredibly rare transaction.
- Andy MacPhail has been the president of baseball operations for the Orioles since 2007, but this year could be his last. Two high-ranking O's sources expect MacPhail to walk away, but MacPhail himself said only, "Let's just get to the end of the year."
- The Royals have the best farm system in the game, but they're willing to deal parts of it if they can strike a deal similar to Cleveland's trade that brought Ubaldo Jimenez to the American League Central. Kansas City would like a controllable ace in any potential deal.
- Angels right fielder Torii Hunter said he's considering retiring after his current five-year, $90MM contract expires after the 2012 season. Hunter has said numerous times he'd like to return to the Twins to finish his career, but now says he's likely to retire an Angel and had some harsh words for Twins' GM Bill Smith.
- Brandon Phillips said it'd feel like a slap in the face if the Reds merely picked up his 2012 option and didn't extend him beyond next season. If the option is exercised without a long-term deal, Phillips says he'll test free agency after the 2012 campaign.
- The Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Nationals, Orioles, Rangers, and Rays are among the teams interested in Yu Darvish.