Farm System Rankings
Baseball America's annual farm system rankings are out, with a few changes from their 2011 Handbook due to the Matt Garza trade. The Rays' haul pushed them to #2 over the Braves, while the Cubs' losses knocked them from #8 to #16.
For more farm system rankings, check out ESPN's Keith Law and Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein. Keep in mind that graduating prospects to the bigs is a bad thing for a team in these rankings, which as Law notes represent a snapshot. Also, Goldstein provides haikus.
If you look at rankings from all three side-by-side, you'll see that there is a consensus that the Royals, Rays, and Braves should be ranked #1, 2, and 3. The Blue Jays, Yankees, and Reds have consensus top ten systems, with Toronto placing no worse than fifth. There is also agreement that the Astros, Marlins, and Brewers belong in the bottom five. Outliers: BA dislikes the A's and Angels more than the others, Law isn't as high on the Indians but likes the Cardinals and D'Backs, and BA likes the Dodgers more than the others.
AL East Links: All Five Teams
Plenty of storylines in the AL East this year; here are a few…
- Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos talked to Jeff Blair on the Fan 590 yesterday, and Andrew Stoeten of Drunk Jays Fans has highlights. Anthopoulos talked about Aroldis Chapman, Frank Francisco, Brett Lawrie, and Juan Rivera among other things.
- Much has been written lately about Rays' manager Joe Maddon's attempt to handle Manny Ramirez. Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald has quotes from the manager today. ESPN's Jayson Stark tackled the Manny-Rays topic in depth yesterday, with one veteran big league coach and manager asserting, "I know one thing. It will end horribly."
- Despite being knocked around yesterday, Yankees pitcher Sergio Mitre told Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News, "That's one thing that never even crossed my mind – whether I'm making the team or not." Mitre seems to be battling Freddy Garcia for a long relief job.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman talked about how Jesus Montero's defense seems to be slipping in tandem with his batting slump, in this article from Feinsand's colleague John Harper. Montero might be best served at Triple-A for development and trade value purposes.
- Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has extensive quotes from Adrian Gonzalez's agent John Boggs, as the good vibes about an April extension continue. WEEI's Alex Speier explains that trading for Gonzalez rather than signing him as a free agent gives Boston a more desirable slice of the first baseman's career and also saves them perhaps $25MM or more. I think the value of the careers of the prospects given up easily surpasses that amount of savings, but that's slightly negated by the Sox not having to give up a draft pick to get Adrian.
- Orioles president Andy MacPhail admitted to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun that service time is a factor in their decision whether to have top prospect Zach Britton break camp with the team. At least he's being upfront about it. Britton has allowed one run in 14 innings this spring.
- Here's how the AL East stacks up in Baseball America's organizational talent rankings: the Rays are #2, the Blue Jays are #4, the Yankees are #5, the Red Sox are #17, and the Orioles are #21.
NL Central Notes: Greinke, Reds, Cardinals
Links for Tuesday night, as the Cubs decide on the back of their rotation…
- Zack Greinke told Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post that he chose to join the Brewers over the Nationals because he felt that Milwaukee was going to win sooner than Washington. The Nationals offered Greinke a $100MM extension at one point and Greinke didn’t accept it, though he says he expects the Nationals to be a good team within a few years since owner Ted Lerner wants to win badly. Greinke didn’t rule out the possibility of playing for the Nationals once he becomes a free agent, after the 2012 season.
- The Brewers are likely to start the season with four starters and eight relievers, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy.
- MLB.com's Mark Sheldon examines the Reds' bullpen and explains that Dontrelle Willis appears to have a good chance of making the team.
- In a mailbag for MLB.com, Matthew Leach suggests it’s a make or break year of sorts for Cardinals Kyle Lohse, Ryan Theriot and Skip Schumaker. They’re not the only ones with lots riding on 2011, as the MLBTR team has outlined.
Possible Suitors For Rodrigo Lopez
The Braves are looking to trade two veteran starters: Rodrigo Lopez and Kenshin Kawakami. Lopez logged 200 innings in the majors last year and teams will find his minor league contract considerably more appealing than Kawakami's $6.67MM salary.
Lopez led the National League in losses, earned runs and homers allowed last year and FIP and xFIP suggest his 2010 ERA of 5.00 was appropriate. But he logged 200 innings and struck out twice as many hitters as he walked.
The available alternatives are not inspiring, so teams looking for rotation depth could check in on the 35-year-old right-hander this month. Here are some of the clubs that could be calling the Braves:
- Brewers – GM Doug Melvin says he's making calls to determine who's available. Wily Peralta, Marco Estrada, Eulogio de la Cruz and Tim Dillard are internal candidates to start for Milwaukee.
- Rockies – The Rockies inquired on Lopez late this offseason and Troy Renck of the Denver Post wouldn't be surprised to see them check in on him again (Twitter links). Lopez appeared in 14 games for the Rockies in 2007. Esmil Rogers and John Maine are among the candidates for the Rockies' final rotation spot, which opened up when Aaron Cook broke a finger.
- Orioles – Another one of Lopez's former teams, the Orioles, could monitor Lopez's availability, though they have reason to like their own rotation candidates.
- White Sox - Phil Humber, who has started two MLB games in his career, appears to be the leading candidate to start until Jake Peavy is healthy. Lopez wouldn't be a sexy choice, but he's far more experienced than Humber.
- Indians – The Indians expressed interest in some experienced starters this winter, possibly because Fausto Carmona is the only pitcher in the Indians' projected rotation who has a 200-inning season to his name. Lopez could have appeal to the Tribe.
- Athletics – Though the A's appear set for now, they could inquire in case the combination of Brandon McCarthy, Tyson Ross and Bobby Cramer falters.
D’Backs Not Interested In Oliver Perez
Though the Diamondbacks were eyeing left-handed relief help earlier in the month, they are not interested in Oliver Perez, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (on Twitter). The Mets released the 29-year-old left-hander yesterday and reports have since established that the Yankees and Brewers are not interested in Perez, either.
Perez, now a free agent, is set to earn $12MM in 2011, the final year of his three-year, $36MM contract. If an MLB team signs him, they'll contribute about $400K of his salary and the Mets will pay the remaining $11.6MM.
As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes explained earlier today, Barry Enright and either Armando Galarraga or Aaron Heilman figure to fill out the back of Arizona's rotation. Rule 5 pick Joe Paterson could make the team and Mike Hampton and Jordan Norberto provide additional depth from the left side.
The Padres signed Perez as an amateur free agent in 1999 when current D'Backs GM Kevin Towers was San Diego's GM.
NL East Notes: Castillo, DePodesta, Braves
Links from the NL East, as the Marlins declare that Josh Johnson is ready for the season…
- After some confusion, Luis Castillo arrived in Phillies camp, according to MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post de-bunks the notion that the Mets could have built up trade value for Castillo instead of releasing him.
- Mets exec Paul DePodesta said in a chat at Baseball Prospectus that he likes to be aggressive in the draft and take occasional "shots where it's appropriate." However, DePodesta cautioned that it's possible to overspend on amateurs, since there is a finite number of future big leaguers out there (hat tip MetsBlog).
- Joe Pawlikowski of FanGraphs predicts that the Braves will get something in exchange for Kenshin Kawakami, even if they have to eat some of his $6.67MM salary.
- For the latest on the Nationals, click here.
Quick Hits: Davis, Barton, Cole, Slowey
Links from around the majors, as Manny Ramirez takes on one of his former teams and the regular season draws one day closer…
- Doug Davis, who will throw for teams in Arizona on Thursday, is “getting a lot of interest,” agent Steve Canter told Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com. Canter declined to list interested teams, but GM Doug Melvin says we shouldn’t expect a reunion with the Brewers.
- Daric Barton switched agents to Dan Lozano, according to ESPN.com's Keith Law (on Twitter). Brian Wilson, Kurt Suzuki, Brett Wallace and Jason Repko recently did the same. To keep up to date on each agency's client list, check out our new Agency Database.
- UCLA right-hander Gerrit Cole sits atop Law's revised list of top 2011 draft prospects. For more on Cole and other top draft eligible amateurs, check out our Draft Prospect Q&A series.
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs is surprised that more teams aren’t interested in Kevin Slowey, who has proven himself as a back-of-the-rotation starter.
Clayton Kershaw Nears Arbitration Payday
Clayton Kershaw has a considerable amount in common with the ace of the Dodgers’ American League counterpart. Like Jered Weaver, Kershaw blazed through the minor leagues after going early in the first round of the draft. Both struck out more than a batter per inning last year (9.3 K/9) and should start for their respective teams on Opening Day.
If all goes well for Kershaw this year, he’ll follow Weaver’s career path in one other respect. The Dodgers left-hander could push his 2012 salary past the $4MM mark, a rarity for first time arbitration eligible starters.
Weaver made $4.265MM last year, when he led MLB in strikeouts in his first season of arbitration eligibility. Kershaw, who is two years behind Weaver in the arbitration process, could set himself up for a similarly impressive contract by continuing to pitch well this year in his final pre-arbitration season.
Weaver’s numbers through his first two-plus years resemble Kershaw’s current numbers. Weaver had more wins (35 vs. 26) and fewer losses (19 vs. 23) and walks (132 vs. 224) than Kershaw has now. However, Kershaw has a better ERA (3.17 vs. 3.71), more innings (483 vs. 460 2/3) and strikeouts (497 vs. 372) and fewer hits allowed (388 vs. 445) than Weaver.
Kershaw already compares favorably to some starting pitchers in the class ahead of him, those who were arbitration eligible for the first time this past offseason. His career stats will help him, but they won’t be enough to match Weaver’s 2010 salary.
Kershaw needs a platform year like the one Weaver had in his final pre-arbitration season. Back in 2009, Weaver went 16-8 with a 3.75 ERA, 7.4 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 211 innings, setting himself up for $4MM-plus in arbitration.
There are no guarantees for Kershaw, though he’s better-positioned than most of the other starters who will go to arbitration for the first time after 2011. But if he continues to stay healthy and pitch like a number one starter in 2011 it’s possible that the 23-year-old will match Weaver’s $4.265MM mark in 2012 and set himself up for more money through arbitration in 2013 and 2014.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
Padres, Heath Bell Talk Extension
Padres GM Jed Hoyer met with agents Sam and Seth Levinson of ACES last week for 2-3 hours to discuss a possible extension for Padres closer Heath Bell, according to MLB.com’s Barry Bloom. Bell repeated that he would like to stay in San Diego and is willing to take a discount to remain with the Padres, as long as the team can be flexible, too.
"My biggest thing is that I'd like three years," Bell said. "That's my biggest thing. If it means taking less money, then that's something I'll do to make sure I'm here for the next three years or more."
Hoyer told Bloom that the sides had a “good meeting" and that he’d like to keep Bell. The closer, who will hit free agency after the season if the sides don’t reach a deal, said he’s open to negotiating an extension during the season.
Bell, 33, will earn $7.5MM this season in his final season of arbitration eligibility. He saved 47 games last year, when he posted a 1.93 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 and made his second consecutive All-Star team.
Heyman On Bautista, Wakefield, Dominguez, Perez
Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos told Jon Heyman of SI.com that he thought carefully before locking up Jose Bautista to a $65MM extension. "When you spend that kind of money, I don't think you can ever be completely comfortable," Anthopoulos said. "And I am one to agonize over everything, anyway,'' Both Anthopoulos and Bautista acknowledged that a second 54-homer season is unlikely, but that doesn't mean the former utility player can't produce. Here are the rest of Heyman's rumors…
- Boston's front office has not seriously considered cutting Tim Wakefield.
- Dennys Reyes, who can opt out of his contract Friday, will likely make the team as well, according to Heyman.
- Two scouts say Marlins third baseman Matt Dominguez isn't ready to hit in the major leagues. However, he's an above-average defender.
- Though manager Joe Girardi won't say as much, Ivan Nova has locked up the Yankees' No. 4 starter job, according to Heyman.
- It appears that Oliver Perez will find a job. The Yankees and Brewers aren't interested.
- Scouts tell Heyman that Twins pitching prospect Kyle Gibson isn't far from the majors.