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Padres Hiring Mark Loretta As Special Assistant

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The Padres are hiring longtime big leaguer and former Cubs bench coach Mark Loretta as a special assistant to CEO Erik Greupner, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network. This is a homecoming for Loretta, as he had previously spent a decade working for the Padres, from his retirement from playing in 2010 until joining the Cubs in 2019.

Loretta, 50, played in the majors for 15 seasons from 1995 to 2009. He made his debut with the Brewers and played parts of eight seasons with Milwaukee, before also spending some time with the Astros, Padres, Red Sox and Dodgers. Overall, he played 1,726 MLB games, hitting .295/.360/.395 with a paltry strikeout rate of just 9.2%. He was worth 18.9 wins above replacement in his career, according to FanGraphs. He was selected to participate in the All-Star Game in both 2004 and 2006.

He retired from playing after the 2009 season and joined the Padres as a special assistant to the baseball operations staff, staying in that role until taking the bench coach job with the Cubs in 2019. After that season, Joe Maddon departed as manager of the Cubs, with Loretta rumored to be in the running to be Maddon’s replacement, as well as being a candidate for the Padres’ managerial opening. Those jobs eventually went to David Ross and Jayce Tingler, respectively. As Ross was a first-time manager, Andy Green was brought on as the bench coach to give Ross an experienced bench boss by his side, leaving Loretta as an odd man out.

Loretta will now return to the Padres, an organization that he spent time with both as a player and a special assistant. Erik Greupner was the team’s president of business operations until general manager A.J. Preller was extended and promoted to be president of baseball operations almost a year ago, with Greupner also getting bumped up the ladder from president to CEO.

Padres Sign Domingo Leyba To Minor League Deal

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The Padres have signed infielder Domingo Leyba to a minor league contract, according to the transactions tracker at MLB.com. As is the case with other players who have signed minors deals during the lockout, Leyba opened the offseason as a minor league free agent after being outrighted off the Orioles’ 40-man roster in August.

Leyba, 26, has suited up in a pair of MLB seasons. He broke in with the Diamondbacks in 2019 and appeared in 21 games that year. He missed the abbreviated 2020 campaign on the restricted list but returned with Arizona in 2021. He was designated for assignment in early June and claimed off waivers by the Orioles, but Baltimore waived him themselves and released him not too long after. While he hooked on with the Rangers on a minors pact for the stretch run, Leyba didn’t get to the big leagues in Texas.

Between the D-Backs and O’s, the switch-hitting Leyba has played in 55 big league games. Over 126 plate appearances, he’s managed just a .152/.238/.222 line with one home run. Yet the Dominican Republic native has a far better track record in the minors. He’s a .304/.346/.537 hitter in two Triple-A seasons and owner of a .279/.352/.404 mark across three years at Double-A.

Leyba will presumably get an opportunity in big league Spring Training to compete for a utility role. He’s got minor league experience at both middle infield spots, although he’s primarily functioned as a second baseman or third baseman in the big leagues. The Padres already have ample talent around the dirt, with Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar on hand to back up Jake Cronenworth, Fernando Tatís Jr. and Manny Machado. They’ve recently subtracted from that group by moving Adam Frazier to Seattle, though, and there’s no downside in adding to the organizational depth by bringing Leyba in on a non-roster deal.

Details On Luxury Tax Payments For Dodgers/Padres

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As expected, the Dodgers and Padres are the two teams that exceeded the luxury tax threshold this past season. The Associated Press reports that Los Angeles will pay $32.65MM in fees, while the Padres’ tax penalty lands at a more modest $1.29MM. No other teams exceeded the threshold in 2021.

Neither the Dodgers nor the Padres exceeded the threshold in 2020. Under the terms of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement, teams were only subject to escalating penalties for exceeding in consecutive years. Thus, both teams will be treated as first-time payors this offseason.

Teams are only subject to penalties on the dollars they spend above the threshold. The 2021 penalties for first-time payors checked in at 20% on every dollar between $210MM and $230MM, 32% on overages between $230MM and $250MM and 62.5% on each dollar spent above $250MM. CBT figures are calculated by summing the average annual values of all of a team’s player contracts (plus benefits), not by looking at a team’s actual payrolls in a given season.

As their hefty tax suggests, the Dodgers were by far the game’s biggest spender in 2021. Los Angeles’ final luxury tax number checked in at $285.6MM. (Their tax payment is calculated as the sum of $4MM on their overages between $210MM – $230MM, $6.4MM on their overages between $230MM – $250MM and $22.25MM on their overages above $250MM). The Dodgers flexed that financial might to build a star-studded roster that went to the NL Championship Series.

By exceeding $250MM, the Dodgers also accepted a minor hit in next year’s amateur draft. Teams that exceeded the highest tax threshold in the previous CBA saw their top choice moved back ten spots in the ensuing Rule 4 draft. Instead of picking 30th overall next season as originally scheduled, they’ll first select at pick No. 40.

While the Dodgers shattered the luxury mark, the Padres very narrowly exceeded the first threshold. Their final ledger checked in at $216.5MM, the highest mark in franchise history. San Diego’s financial cost for doing so is minuscule, but surpassing the threshold would be of more import were they to sign a free agent who has been tagged with a qualifying offer. Teams that pay any CBT penalties are subject to the highest levels of draft pick and international signing bonus forfeiture for signing qualified free agents. Exceeding the tax also reduces the compensation teams receive when one of their own qualified free agents signs elsewhere; this winter, the Dodgers received the lowest possible compensation (a pick after the fourth round) for watching Corey Seager depart.

As mentioned, the previous CBA contained escalating penalties for teams that exceeded the threshold in multiple consecutive years. It’s not clear whether that process will continue with the next CBA (or where the thresholds will land in the next CBA) but most high-revenue teams have occasionally determined to dip back under the threshold to “reset” their tax bracket and dodge escalating penalties.

That makes the Padres’ decision to narrowly exceed the threshold and potentially shoulder escalating penalties in future years a bit atypical. A handful of teams settled their spending limits just below the $210MM mark. According to the AP, each of the Phillies, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Astros ended with payrolls less than $5MM below the first tax threshold. They’ll each be first-time payors if they exceed that mark in 2022, with the Yankees and Astros resetting after exceeding the threshold in 2020. (The Cubs also exceeded the threshold in 2020 but didn’t come especially close to $210MM in 2021).

The AP also reports that overall spending on players took a step back. The combined tally of all thirty teams’ luxury tax payrolls this past season tallied $4.52 billion, down from the $4.71 billion teams spent in 2019. That’s not entirely surprising on the heels of a 2020 campaign with essentially no gate revenues, although it’s the lowest overall expenditures on players since 2016’s $4.51 billion.

Padres Finalize Coaching Staff, Hire Bryan Price As Senior Advisor

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The Padres on Monday announced manager Bob Melvin’s staff for the 2022 season, revealing within that former Reds skipper Bryan Price has joined the organization as a senior advisor to the Major League coaching staff. Price, according to today’s press release, “will work alongside the Major League coaching staff throughout Spring Training and the 2022 season, serving as a both an on-field instructor and a mentor within the clubhouse.”

Price’s hire was not previously reported and comes as something of a surprise, given that he’d announced his retirement following the 2020 season. Price spent that year as the Phillies’ pitching coach and also managed the Reds from 2014-18, though the 59-year-old comes with decades of experience beyond those most recent roles.

An eighth-round pick out of UC Berkeley by the Angels back in 1984, Price pitched in parts of five minor league seasons before setting out on a coaching track that would make him one of the more successful and well-regarded coaches in recent memory. He spent 11 years as a minor league pitching coach and/or pitching coordinator in the Mariners’ system from 1988-99 before joining their Major League staff as pitching coach. Price held that role through the 2005 season, working as pitching coach under Melvin there for two of those seasons (2003-04).

Price was named the D-backs’ pitching coach prior to the 2006 season — again serving under Melvin — and remained there through the 2009 season. At that point, he was hired by the Reds as pitching coach, holding that post until being promoted to manager in the 2013-14 offseason.

Aside from Price, there are no new surprises included within San Diego’s announcement, as the entirety of the staff’s composition had already been reported. Ryan Christenson will follow Melvin from Oakland to San Diego, reprising his role as bench coach. Ruben Niebla heads over from Cleveland after serving as an assistant pitching coach there last year. Matt Williams will also reunite with Melvin as third base coach after spending the past two seasons managing in the KBO. (He’d previously been Melvin’s third base coach in Oakland, in addition to a two-year stint managing the Nationals.) David Macias, who formerly managed in the Mariners’ system and was on the East Carolina University staff, is the team’s first base/outfield coach. Recently retired catcher Francisco Cervelli is the team’s new catching coach.

The Padres are also welcoming back a few coaches from former skipper Jayce Tingler’s staff. Quality control coach Ryan Flaherty (best known for his six-year stint as an Orioles utilityman), bullpen coach Ben Fritz and game-planning/coaching assistant Peter Summerville are all on the staff again under the newly hired Melvin.

Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order.  For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.

Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings.  First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.

For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks.  The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.

  • Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary.  The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+.  Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category.  If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
  • Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds.  The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers.  Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere.  The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town.  The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins).  For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
  • Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round.  Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.

Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…

  • Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021.  As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
  • Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021.  For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection.  For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft.  Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
  • Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents.  Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
  • Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season.  Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.

Padres Notes: Payroll, Campusano, Prospects

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The Padres were relatively quiet during the pre-lockout portion of the offseason, at least by A.J. Preller’s usual aggressive standards.  The club’s trade of Adam Frazier to the Mariners stands as San Diego’s biggest move of the winter, and that deal was surely motivated at least in part by the $7.2MM Frazier is projected to earn in salary arbitration.

Though the next collective bargaining agreement could change the luxury tax rules, for now the Padres’ hefty salary commitments (roughly $214.7MM for 2022, as per Roster Resource) continues to influence the front office’s activities.  The Padres already exceeded the $210MM luxury tax threshold in 2021, and would face a repeater penalty of a 30% surcharge on the overage if they surpassed whatever the threshold is in 2022.  It isn’t clear what San Diego’s salary ceiling might actually be, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (multiple links) notes that another “major hike” would require owner Peter Seidler to get a green light from the franchise’s minority owners.

As such, the Padres’ spending will probably be limited to some extent, as Lin has “a hard time seeing the Padres taking on another contract approaching nine figures” while the contracts of Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers are still on San Diego’s payroll.  Both Hosmer and Myers have been mentioned in trade rumors for well over a year, as the Friars have looked for creative ways of unloading either player’s hefty salary.  Hosmer is the more expensive of the duo, owed $59MM through the 2025 season while Myers is owed $21MM in 2022 ($20MM in salary and a $1MM buyout of a $20MM club option for 2023).

As Lin simply puts it, “there are a lot of moving parts to this offseason.”  Getting at least one of Hosmer or Myers off the books could unlock a lot of possibilities for the Padres, who have already been linked to such notable free agents as Nick Castellanos and Kris Bryant.  While this interest could have just been due diligence, it does indicate that San Diego is at least checking in to see what it would to add another pricey, top-tier name to the roster.

There has been much speculation that the Padres could try to trade Hosmer or Myers by including a top prospect in the deal, as a rebuilding team with payroll space might be willing to eat some salary in order to essentially buy a blue chip minor leaguer.  The Padres discussed Hosmer with the Rangers and Cubs at the trade deadline, with Robert Hassell III reportedly part of the negotiations with Texas, and Lin writes that catching prospect Luis Campusano was part of the Hosmer talks with Chicago.

The catch of such a trade, however, is that while the Padres would be lightening their salary load, they would also be losing a controllable young player that is all the more valuable to a team with such a luxury tax burden.  The club has already dipped into its prospect depth for other trades, to the point that Lin reports that rival teams now focus their asks only on San Diego’s top minor leaguers, with Hassell and CJ Abrams receiving most of the attention.  With this in mind, Lin is doubtful if the Padres would deal any of their best prospects, or the likes of Trent Grisham or Jake Cronenworth on the MLB roster.

Padres Expected To Add Matt Williams, David Macias To Coaching Staff

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The Padres are “on the verge” of adding Matt Williams as their new third base coach, per Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Britt Ghiroli and Dennis Lin of The Athletic report that Williams is indeed set to join the staff (Twitter link), adding that the Friars are also set to name assistant East Carolina University coach David Macias their new first base coach. The Padres are also hiring former Mariners bench coach Jared Sandberg as their new Triple-A skipper, per Ghiroli and Lin.

Williams, 56, managed the Nationals from 2014-15 and was even named National League Manager of the Year in 2014. He’s quite familiar with incoming Padres skipper Bob Melvin, having served as Melvin’s third base coach in Oakland from 2018-19. Williams also spent five years on the D-backs’ Major League staff, from 2010-13 and again in 2016, where he served as both third base coach and first base coach. He’s spent the past two seasons in South Korea, managing the Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization. Lin reported earlier this week that the Padres had spoken to Williams about joining the team as Melvin’s new third base coach.

Of course, Williams is also known for an excellent playing career that spanned 17 Major League seasons. A five-time All-Star, four-time Gold Glove third baseman, four-time Silver Slugger and 2001 World Series champion with the D-backs, Williams blasted 378 home runs while batting .268/.317/.489 in 7595 plate appearances from 1987-2003. He took home MVP votes on four occasions, finishing second place in 1994, third place in 1999 and sixth place in both 1990 and 1993.

Although the 35-year-old Macias is joining the Padres’ staff from the college ranks, he’s no stranger to working with Major League clubs. The former Vanderbilt player was a 19th-round pick of the Cubs back in 2008 and played four minor league seasons with them. He spent 2016-17 working with the Mariners, first as their international player programs coordinator and staff systems coordinator, then stepping up as the manager of Seattle’s Class-A affiliate in Clinton.

Macias departed the Mariners organization to work with the coaching staff at his alma mater, Vanderbilt, and had only just joined the ECU coaching staff this past summer. He worked specifically with catchers and outfielders at ECU, though it’s not clear whether he’ll do the same with the Padres.

The Padres have not yet formally announced their 2022 staff, though Lin tweets that they plan to do so next week.

Padres, Nomar Mazara Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Padres have signed corner outfielder Nomar Mazara to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league Spring Training, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (Twitter link). Mazara was eligible to sign a minors pact during the lockout because he didn’t finish the 2021 season on a club’s 40-man roster or major league injured list, having been released by the Tigers in June.

San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was a high-ranking member of the Rangers’ scouting staff in 2011, when Texas signed Mazara as an amateur out of the Dominican Republic. The left-handed hitter’s big power potential made him a coveted signee, with the Rangers doling out a bonus just under $5MM to secure his services.

For a while, that looked to be a great investment. Mazara posted big production over his first few minor league seasons. He continued to impress scouts along the way, emerging as one of the sport’s top 25 overall prospects by 2016 (in the estimation of Baseball America). He made his MLB debut as a 20-year-old that April and looked to have a good chance of emerging as a long-term lineup fixture in Arlington.

Mazara hit .266/.320/.419 with 20 home runs over 568 plate appearances as a rookie. Those aren’t world-beating numbers, but it was nevertheless a promising debut showing for a player the age of a typical college junior. Mazara remained the Rangers’ regular right fielder over the next three seasons, but his awaited breakout simply never arrived. He hit between 19 and 20 homers every year, posting slightly below-average offensive numbers in each season. For a bat-first player whose glovework in the corner outfield hasn’t rated highly, that wasn’t much more than replacement level production.

Texas moved on from Mazara after 2019, trading him to the White Sox for outfield prospect Steele Walker. Mazara had a rough 149 plate appearance showing in Chicago during the shortened 2020 season, and the Sox cut him loose that offseason. The Tigers took a low-cost flier last winter, but he hit only .212/.276/.321 over 181 plate appearances in Detroit before being released. He didn’t latch on with another club the rest of the season.

Preller has brought numerous former prospects with whom he’s familiar from Texas over to the Padres. On a minor league deal with a non-roster invite, there’s no downside for the Friars in getting a look at Mazara in Spring Training. San Diego has plenty of uncertainty in the corner outfield mix, with Tommy Pham hitting free agency and seemingly annual speculation about the possibility of Wil Myers coming up in trade talks.

Mazara, still only 26 years old, could have a good opportunity to crack the roster with a strong showing in exhibition play. Yet his days as a top prospect continue to get further in the rear-view mirror as he’s struggled to handle big league pitching. Over parts of six MLB seasons, he’s a .255/.315/.418 hitter, production that checks in around 12 points below the league average by measure of wRC+.

Coaching/Organizational Notes: Padres, Williams, Nationals, Pirates

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The Padres still have a few vacancies to fill on manager Bob Melvin’s coaching staff, including both base coaching positions. As part of his latest reader mailbag, Dennis Lin of the Athletic writes that San Diego has been in contact with Matt Williams about the possibility of serving as third base coach. As Lin points out, the 56-year-old Williams spent the 2018-19 seasons on the A’s staff as third base coach during Melvin’s time as Oakland skipper.

Of course, Williams is better known for his 17-year big league playing career and two seasons as Nationals’ manager. A five-time All-Star as a player, Williams took over the Washington dugout in 2014. He was named the National League’s Manager of the Year in his first season at the helm, a year in which the club went 96-66 to claim the NL East title. Yet the Nats disappointed the following season, and Williams was dismissed and replaced with Dusty Baker after the 2015 campaign. Most recently, he spent the 2020-21 campaigns managing the Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization. Williams and the Tigers mutually agreed to part ways at the end of this past season.

A couple more staffing notes around the game:

  • The Nationals are planning to expand their scouting, player development and minor league coaching staffs, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. As Dougherty explores, Washington has had one of the smaller player development groups around the league in recent seasons. General manager Mike Rizzo and player development director De Jon Watson each recently spoke with Dougherty about the changes, which will see the Nats attempt to streamline their use of video and data in player development. Not coincidentally, the increased emphasis on the minor leagues comes a few months after the club kicked off an organizational reboot at the July 30 trade deadline. Barring changes to the service time structure, the Nationals will control Juan Soto for three more seasons via arbitration. Soto’s potential post-2024 free agency only adds to the urgency for Washington to develop ancillary contributors around their superstar outfielder.
  • The Pirates are also embracing a philosophical change on the farm, as Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette chronicles adjustments to the club’s pitching development processes. The goal, coordinator of pitching development Josh Hopper says, is to more effectively tailor training regimens to individual hurlers as opposed to dictating a universal, top-down approach throughout the organization. Prospects like Tahnaj Thomas and Quinn Priester tell Mackey they’re excited about the new direction, with both righties implying the previous approach was not as personalized. Mackey writes that the Bucs have become increasingly willing to embrace different drills as certain pitchers prioritize development of velocity, command, biomechanics efficiency, etc. Mackey chronicles numerous training methods used by different prospects in a piece that’s worth a full read for Pirates’ fans.

Cubs, Padres Discussed Eric Hosmer Trade Last Summer

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The Padres and Cubs were in talks last summer about a trade that would have sent first baseman Eric Hosmer “and a highly regarded prospect” to Chicago, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reports.  The return on the Cubs’ end wasn’t mentioned, yet it likely could have been pretty minimal (i.e. a low-level prospect or a player to be named later), since the chief goal of the trade for San Diego would have been to get Hosmer’s contract off the books.  However, since Anthony Rizzo also reportedly on the Padres’ trade radar, it is possible the two teams might have been discussing a swap of first basemen.

Hosmer was known to be available prior to the trade deadline, as the Padres were exploring ways to both lessen their luxury tax burdens in 2021 and in the future, and also create payroll space for some bigger-ticket additions.  As it turned out, San Diego didn’t find a taker for Hosmer, and they also fell short of landing such targets as Rizzo, Max Scherzer and Jose Berrios prior to the deadline.  While the Padres did acquire the likes of Adam Frazier and Daniel Hudson, that wasn’t enough to hold off a late-season collapse, as the Friars plummeted to a 79-83 record.

As well, the Padres also ended up exceeding the luxury tax threshold for the first time in club history.  While final figures haven’t yet been released (and estimates from both Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource actually had the Padres falling a bit short of the tax line), the expectation is that San Diego’s Competitive Balance Tax number did indeed top the $210MM mark.  The penalty for a first-time payor is only a 20 percent surcharge on the overage, so since the Padres didn’t exceed the threshold by too much, their financial cost will be quite minimal.  For instance, if they exceeded the CBT line by $2MM, the team would have a $400K tax bill.

Since the Padres are already projected to sit very close to the $210MM mark for their 2022 expenditures, a further penalty could be difficult to avoid, with the obvious caveat that the CBT system could be altered under the new collective bargaining agreement.  In the short term, however, exceeding the luxury tax line has already caused some difficulties for the Padres’ offseason business.  They would have to give up two 2022 draft picks (their second-highest and fifth-highest selections) and $1MM of international draft pool money in order to sign a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, and San Diego has already reportedly shown interest in one such QO free agent in Nick Castellanos.

Assuming some form of the luxury tax continues to exist in the next CBA, even at a much higher threshold, the Padres would probably prefer to rid themselves of Hosmer’s contract just to lessen their chances of a repeater penalty.  Hosmer has a tax number of $18MM per season (the average annual value of his eight-year, $144MM deal), even though his actual salary figures will drop on the back end of his deal.  Hosmer has $59MM owed to him through the 2025 campaign, breaking down as $20MM in 2022, and then $13MM salaries in each of the 2023-25 seasons.

This contract wouldn’t be a problem if Hosmer was still hitting, and yet the veteran has batted only .264/.323/.415 (99 wRC+, 102 OPS+) over his four seasons in San Diego.  Other than a strong performance over 156 plate appearances in the shortened 2020 season, Hosmer has been barely a replacement-level player with the Padres, and he may not even be a regular starting option going forward considering that his playing time was reduced amidst his struggles.

The Cubs were primarily focused on selling back in July, unloading such veteran talents as Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Craig Kimbrel, Joc Pederson, and others.  Plus, the Cubs got a jump on the salary cuts almost a year ago in another major deal with the Padres, as Yu Darvish was dealt to San Diego.  All of these moves greatly reduced Chicago’s future salary commitments, and yet the recent acquisitions of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley indicate that the Cubs aren’t planning a full rebuild.  Despite Hosmer’s lack of recent production, the Cubs could see him as a change-of-scenery candidate, or possibly as a left-handed complement to Frank Schwindel for first base (and maybe DH) duties.

The real prize for Chicago would still be whatever prospect or prospects the Padres were to include in a Hosmer trade.  While San Diego still has a strong farm system, their minor league depth has been sapped to some extent due to other deals, and some prospects that have now graduated to larger roles on the big league roster.  In talks with the Rangers about a trade involving Hosmer and Joey Gallo last July, Padres outfield prospect Robert Hassell III was reportedly floated as a candidate to change teams, though it isn’t known if the Cubs would also be targeting Hassell.

It is worth noting that Hosmer himself also has some leverage in the form of a ten-team no-trade clause.  The Cubs weren’t one of the ten teams on Hosmer’s 2021 list, and yet since he can change that list every year, he could very well adjust his no-trade protection to include the Cubs, Rangers, or any other club Hosmer suspects could be a potential trade partner.  This doesn’t mean that Hosmer wouldn’t necessarily welcome a move away from the Padres, but he would at least give himself some measure of control over his future.  Hosmer also gains full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player following the 2022 season, so this is the last year for the Padres to move Hosmer even somewhat freely.

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