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MLBTR Podcast: Paul Skenes, The Prospect Hype Machine, Willson Contreras And Rising Catcher’s Interference Rates

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • If the Astros continue this horrible start through the summer months, who are some players that they might swap? (33:15)
  • With the Phillies having one of the best rotations in baseball and six pitchers deep, it seems to make a guy like Mick Abel expendable. Do you think the Phillies possibly move him at the deadline? Say for a bat to possibly platoon with Nick Castellanos in right? (38:45)
  • Is there any chance the Tigers may try and sell high on Tarik Skubal? He’s an ace and it would take a lot to pry him away but Detroit just doesn’t seem like a place that’ll pay him the big bucks under Chris Ilitch’s regime. Not sure his value will ever be higher especially if they continue to play how they have in recent weeks. (46:00)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Cardinals Release Josh James

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The Cardinals announced Tuesday that right-handed reliever Josh James has been given his unconditional release. The former Astros reliever had been pitching with their Triple-A affiliate in Memphis after signing a minor league deal in the offseason.

James hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2021. The 31-year-old spent the the majority of the 2022 season on the injured list before eventually undergoing flexor surgery that cost him the whole 2023 campaign. He made for an intriguing minor league flier, given some prior success in Houston, but James displayed calamitous command issues during his brief time with the Redbirds. In 7 2/3 innings this season, he’s been shelled for 17 earned runs (19.96 ERA) on 13 hits and 15 walks with only five strikeouts. James faced 51 hitters and walked 15 of them (29.4%).

Before encountering his forearm injury, James spent four seasons in the Houston bullpen as a hard-throwing middle reliever with lofty strikeout and walk totals. In 106 1/3 innings at the MLB level, James has fanned 34.3% of his opponents but also issued walks at a 13.2% clip — all en route to a 4.64 earned run average.

It’s possible he’ll get another look elsewhere, but a near-30% walk rate in Triple-A on the heels of such a lengthy injury layoff underscores that James is a project at this point. He’s quite a ways removed from the impressive 2.35 ERA, 32% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate he turned in as a rookie with the 2018 Astros.

Cardinals Notes: Matz, Liberatore, Marmol

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The Cardinals have been without Steven Matz all month, as the veteran lefty has been on the shelf due to a lower back strain. He’d been slated to throw a bullpen session today, but that’s now been scrapped due to ongoing discomfort, tweets Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat. Instead, Matz will receive an injection and be shut down from throwing for “at least” the next week — possibly longer, depending on how he responds to the latest treatment.

Matz, 33 at the end of the month, is in the third season of a four-year, $44MM contract signed in free agency. The former Mets and Blue Jays hurler rebounded from a dreadful first season of that agreement in 2022 to give the Cards 105 innings of 3.86 ERA ball last season. He did so with diminished strikeout and walk rates relative to his ’22 levels but also with a resurgent 44.8% grounder rate that helped in mitigating some of the home run troubles he’d experienced in his first year with St. Louis.

The 2024 season has seen Matz make six starts and struggle to a low tally of 27 1/3 innings as well as a grim 6.18 ERA. Matz’s 13.4% strikeout rate would easily be a career-low and stands as the eighth-lowest mark among any of the 182 MLB pitchers to toss at least 20 innings this season. His 8.7% walk rate is average, but this year’s 33.7% ground-ball rate is the lowest of his career other than a 30-inning sample from the shortened 2020 season.

With Matz now sidelined even longer than expected, a window will further open for fellow southpaw Matthew Liberatore. Manager Oli Marmol told the Cardinals beat that plugging Liberatore into Matz’s rotation spot for now “gives us the best chance to win” (X link via Jones), so it seems he’ll remain the preferred option to start in Matz’s absence. Liberatore, acquired from the Rays in the trade sending Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay, hasn’t topped 50 pitches in an outing this year and thus figures to be limited when he takes the ball today in a road matchup with the Angels. His longest outing of the season has been 3 2/3 innings, but if he can work efficiently, it’s feasible he could get through four or five innings before the Cards go to the bullpen.

Speaking of Marmol, he’s come under quite a bit of fire as the Cardinals have followed up 2023’s surprising last-place finish with an ugly start that once again has them residing in the NL Central’s cellar. Fans have voiced plenty of criticism for the third-year skipper, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak — who surprisingly fired former manager Mike Shildt and installed Marmol as the new skipper — seemed to choose his words carefully when asked by KMOX’s Tom Ackerman how he currently views his manager (X link with audio).

“These are times that are difficult,” said Mozeliak. “I still think he understands the job. I think he knows how to manage. I think he’s trying to put the right combination of players in, but at some level you’ve got to have some performance. I understand fans are not happy with myself. They’re not happy with Oli. I don’t think anything I say here today is going to change that, so I think we have to just keep trying to go back and try to get this to work. And look, we understand if it doesn’t, then people are going to be held accountable — and ultimately that starts with me.”

Marmol was entering the final season of his original three-year deal to manage the Cardinals this year, but the front office extended him through the 2026 season back in mid-March. That contract seemed a clear vote of confidence at the time, but less than two months later, Mozeliak is publicly noting that his skipper has “got to have some level of performance” and speaking about accountability both on the field level and in the front office.

The 16-24 Cardinals are eight games back of the division-leading Brewers and have the fourth-worst run differential in MLB (-51), leading only the Rockies, Marlins and White Sox. Cardinals hitters rank 28th in the majors in batting average (.220), 27th in on-base percentage (.298) and 29th in slugging percentage (.341). Their 136 runs are the second-fewest in MLB, and St. Louis is tied with the White Sox for the game’s fewest home runs (29).

The revamped rotation hasn’t been much better. Cardinals starters are 24th in the big leagues with a combined 4.49 ERA and rank 22nd with a 20.5% strikeout rate. The bullpen, led by closer Ryan Helsley and setup men JoJo Romero, Ryan Fernandez and Andrew Kittredge, has been better, but it’s a top-heavy group. The struggles of those in the final few spots of the ’pen have Cardinals relievers sitting at a flat 4.00 ERA on the season, ranking 15th in the big leagues.

NL Central Notes: McLain, Carpenter, Almonte

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The Reds lost a key piece of their starting lineup just before the season began when infielder Matt McLain underwent labrum surgery back in March. As relayed by Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer, McLain recently discussed his timeline for return with reporters, although he’s still a ways away from his name appearing in the Cincinnati lineup.

Per Goldsmith, McLain indicated that he’s still six weeks away from being cleared to swing a bat, indicating he can begin ramping up in earnest in early July. Given the length of his absence, McLain will surely require a rehab assignment in the minor leagues once he’s ready to return to game action, and given that the 24-year-old said that he’s targeting a potential return to the big league Reds sometime in August, just over four months after undergoing surgery. While that timeline still puts him around three months away from big league games, McLain indicated that his rehab is going well, telling reporters (including Goldsmith) that “Right now, [he’s] in a great spot.”

McLain’s absence from the lineup has been a noticeable one for the Reds this season. The youngster was a key part of the club’s offense during his rookie campaign last season as he slashed an impressive .290/.357/.507 in 403 trips to the plate before an oblique strain ended his 2023 season at the end of August. That sort of offensive presence would be a miracle for the Cincinnati lineup this year, which has posted a lackluster 82 wRC+ that’s good for bottom-five in the majors this year despite strong performances from fellow youngsters Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer. Jonathan India has primarily handled the keystone in McLain’s place, but he’s struggled to a wRC+ of 83 despite solid strikeout and walk rates this season.

More from around the NL Central…

  • The Cardinals welcomed back longtime infielder Matt Carpenter from the injured list this afternoon after he hit the shelf in early April due to an oblique strain. Carpenter, 38, was a 13th-round pick by the Cardinals back in 2009 and spent the first 12 seasons of his big league career with the club before departing following the 2021 season. He’s played for the Yankees and Padres in the majors since then but returned to the club on a one-year deal over the offseason. Carpenter will take the place of infielder Jose Fermin in the St. Louis bench mix, providing a second veteran left-handed bat alongside Brandon Crawford to complement the club’s heavily right-handed infield group that features Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Masyn Winn.
  • The Cubs’ relief corps took a hit this afternoon as the club placed right-hander Yency Almonte on the 15-day injured list with a shoulder strain. Almonte has been a rare bright spot in a struggling Cubs bullpen this season, pitching to a solid 3.45 ERA with a 3.34 FIP in 15 2/3 innings of work since coming over from the Dodgers alongside first baseman Michael Busch in a trade this past offseason. Manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) that there’s no timeline for Almonte’s return to action, leaving the Cubs to piece together solutions in the bullpen while he joins Julian Merryweather, Daniel Palencia, and Drew Smyly in departing the bullpen for the injured list in recent weeks, though right-hander Ben Brown’s recent move from the rotation to the bullpen in deference to Justin Steele could help to fortify the club’s relief corps.

Cardinals Claim Kolton Ingram From Rangers

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The Cardinals have claimed left-hander Kolton Ingram off waivers from the Rangers and sent him to Triple-A Memphis, per John Denton of MLB.com. The Rangers had designated the lefty for assignment earlier this week when they acquired outfielder Robbie Grossman. To open a 40-man spot for Ingram, the Cards transferred right-hander Riley O’Brien to the 60-day injured list.

Ingram, 27, seems to be caught in a spot where he’s just good enough to attract interest around the league but with enough uncertainty that he’s been continually bumped off his roster spot. He spent the past few years with the Angels but was designated for assignment in January when that club signed Aaron Hicks. He has since gone to the Tigers, Mets, Rangers and now Cardinals via waiver claims, making this his fifth club of 2024 already.

Around those transactions, he’s only been able to throw seven Triple-A innings this year with a 5.14 earned run average. But last year, he had a 2.95 ERA in 61 minor league innings, split between Double-A and Triple-A. His 13.3% walk rate was on the high side but he struck out 30.2% of batters faced for the year while also getting ground balls at a roughly average rate. He also made his major league debut with the Angels last year, though was only able to toss 5 1/3 innings, allowing five earned runs in that time.

That’s generally been the recipe for him throughout his minor league career. Left-handed relief tends to always be in demand, especially when a guy has a couple of option years and can be kept in the minors for a long time. Ingram doesn’t have perfect control but he has always struck batters out and kept the ball on the ground. The Cards have JoJo Romero, Matthew Liberatore and John King as lefty arms in their big league bullpen but Ingram will give them a bit of extra depth.

As for O’Brien, he was placed on the 15-day IL at the end of March due to a flexor strain in his right forearm. He’s now ineligible to be activated until 60 days from that initial IL placement, which would be the end of May. He hasn’t yet begun a rehab assignment and is likely at least a few weeks away from a return regardless.

Willson Contreras Expected To Miss About 10 Weeks

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Cardinals catcher Willson Contreras underwent surgery to stabilize the fracture in his forearm on Wednesday of this week. Manager Oli Marmol tells the Cardinals beat that the surgery went as expected, and Contreras is expected to miss around 10 weeks of action. He’s hopeful of returning shortly before the All-Star break (via John Denton of MLB.com and Katie Woo of The Athletic on X). Contreras suffered the fracture this week when Mets designated hitter J.D. Martinez struck his left forearm during a swing.

Subtracting Contreras from an already struggling Cardinals lineup is a gut-punch. Veteran stars Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have both underperformed this season (the former, in particular), while injuries have kept Tommy Edman off the field entirely and limited Lars Nootbaar’s time on the field (and arguably his productivity as well).

The Cards are batting just .217/.296/.339 as a team. They rank 29th in the majors in home runs (27), 29th in runs (127), 28th in batting average, 27th in on-base percentage and are tied with the Marlins for 27th in slugging percentage. As longtime Cardinals reporter and St. Louis radio host Bernie Miklasz points out on X, the trio of Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman and Dylan Carlson have astonishingly combined to go 0-for-48 since the calendar flipped to May.

Were it not for an eye-popping start to the season from Contreras, those team totals and rankings would be far worse. He’s been far and away the team’s best hitter, batting .280/.398/.551 with six homers in 128 plate appearances. Contreras’ six homers lead the club, and he’s also pacing the team in doubles (11), walks (18) and wRC+ (171).

In his absence, the Cardinals will turn catching duties over to the tandem of Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages. Herrera has long been a touted catching prospect who looked ready for an audition as a big league regular, but between iron man Yadier Molina and the team’s signing of Contreras, that opportunity hadn’t presented itself — until now. The 23-year-old is out to a slow start in 76 plate appearances this year, hitting just .232/.276/.377. However, he slashed .297/.409/.351 in 13 games with the Cards last year in addition to posting a huge .297/.451/.500 line (147 wRC+) in 83 Triple-A contests (375 plate appearances).

Pages made his big league debut this month. He’s appeared in six games but has just eight plate appearances and has yet to log his first major league hit. The 2019 sixth-round pick is considered a glove-first catching prospect but did post a quality .267/.362/.443 slash (142 wRC+) in 497 Double-A plate appearances last season. He was 4-for-18 with a homer and two doubles in Triple-A prior to his call to the big leagues.

The 15-22 Cardinals have lost five straight games and eight of their last ten. Their -41 run differential ranks 25th in the majors and 12th in the National League.

Cardinals’ Drew Rom Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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Cardinals left-hander Drew Rom underwent arthroscopic surgery on his throwing shoulder last week, manager Oli Marmol told the team’s beat (X link via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). Marmol said the team is still hopeful that the 24-year-old could return at some point this season.

Rom was one of three players whom St. Louis acquired from the Orioles at last year’s deadline in the Jack Flaherty trade. As an upper minors starting pitcher, Rom was a logical target for a team that wanted to reload on the pitching staff and push for contention. St. Louis called him up for his major league debut three weeks after acquiring him. He took eight turns through the rotation but didn’t perform well enough to put himself in the mix for an Opening Day job in 2024.

The 6’2″ southpaw was tagged for an 8.02 ERA over 33 2/3 innings. He had a modest 18.8% strikeout rate, walked more than 11% of batters faced, and gave up seven home runs. While it’s clearly not the way Rom wanted to start his major league career, he entered 2024 as a depth starter who’d likely have factored into the MLB staff at some point throughout the season. Rom has logged 134 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level going back to 2022. His 4.75 ERA in that time isn’t great, but he has punched out an above-average 26.6% of opposing hitters.

Injury will keep that from happening, at least for the near future. Rom battled what was initially announced as biceps tendinitis during Spring Training. He opened the season on the injured list and was transferred to the 60-day IL when St. Louis selected Kyle Leahy onto the MLB roster last week. The team revealed at the time that Rom was visiting a specialist and that surgery was on the table. He’ll clearly be out well beyond when he’s first eligible to return at the end of May. Rom will collect major league service and be paid the $740K MLB minimum salary for whatever time he spends on the injured list.

Paul Goldschmidt’s Toughest Stretch As A Cardinal

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The Cardinals are back at the bottom of the NL Central through six weeks. At 15-21, they're ahead of only the Marlins and Rockies in the National League. St. Louis viewed their 2023 last-place finish as an anomaly. They invested in their rotation to try for a quick turnaround, but their current 68-win pace is below where they ended last season.

Their problems aren't quite the same as they were in 2023. Last year, the biggest issues were a starting rotation that couldn't miss bats and a defense that was surprisingly the worst in MLB at turning batted balls into outs. The Cards haven't been great in either area thus far in 2024, but the slight improvements they've made in those facets have been negated by a lifeless offense. At the center of those struggles: Paul Goldschmidt, who is amidst what is by far the worst stretch of his time in St. Louis.

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Willson Contreras Suffers Arm Fracture, Will Undergo Surgery

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May 8: The Cardinals have formally placed Contreras on the 10-day injured list (though he’ll obviously be out well beyond that 10-day minimum). Pages has indeed been recalled from Memphis, the team announced.

May 7: Cardinals catcher Willson Contreras has been diagnosed with a fractured left forearm, the team announced. The club didn’t provide an immediate recovery timeline, but he’s obviously in for a lengthy absence.

Contreras suffered the injury in tonight’s game against the Mets. He took a direct hit on a J.D. Martinez swing as he went to receive a Miles Mikolas offering (video provided on X by MLB.com’s John Denton). Contreras was in obvious pain immediately and testing quickly revealed the broken bone. Contreras told reporters after the game that he’ll undergo surgery and expects to miss six to eight weeks (X link via Denton). Contreras is shooting for a return around the All-Star Break.

In a lineup where almost everyone has underperformed, Contreras has been the Cardinals’ bright spot. He’s hitting .280/.398/.551 through 128 plate appearances. Among catchers with 100+ plate appearances, only Ryan Jeffers has been narrowly better by measure of wRC+. Contreras has also been by far the best player in the St. Louis lineup, handily leading the team in on-base percentage, slugging and home runs.

Young backstop Iván Herrera will step into the primary catching job. The former top prospect is hitting .215/.264/.369 over 72 trips to the plate. Pedro Pages is the only other catcher on the 40-man roster. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that Pages was pulled midway through his game in Triple-A, suggesting he’ll be recalled tomorrow.

Contreras is in the second season of a five-year free agent deal. He’s a .266/.366/.481 hitter in a little more than 600 plate appearances as a Cardinal.

Cardinals Select Chris Roycroft

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The Cardinals announced that they have selected right-hander Chris Roycroft to the roster. In corresponding moves, they placed righty Giovanny Gallegos on the 15-day injured list with a right shoulder impingement and transferred infielder/outfielder Tommy Edman to the 60-day IL. Roycroft’s promotion was hinted at earlier by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Roycroft, 27 next month, graduated from Aurora University in 2019. The 6-foot-8 righty pitched for the Joliet Slammers of the independent Frontier League in 2021 and 2022, but signed with the Cardinals midway through the latter campaign.

He reported to Single-A and tossed 32 innings in 2022, with a 4.50 earned run average. Last year, he went through Single-A and Double-A and Triple-A with a 5.86 ERA. His 21.8% strikeout rate and 13.9% walk rate were both subpar, but he generated ground balls on about half of balls in play.

This year, he has continued to keep the ball on the ground. He has logged 13 innings over 11 Triple-A appearances so far in 2024. His 16.7% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate are again not great, but 67.6% of balls in play have been pounded into the dirt. That’s helped him post a 1.38 so far this season. He won’t be able to maintain a .237 batting average on balls in play nor a 95.9% strand rate, but the Cards are encouraged by the results nonetheless.

The Cards did a sort of bullpen game yesterday, with Steven Matz recently landing on the IL. Matthew Liberatore took the start but isn’t fully stretched out since he’s been working out of the bullpen this year. He threw 3 2/3 innings but the club then used four other relievers to get through the game. Three of those threw more than an inning and the other was Gallegos, who is now hurt. Roycroft will give the team a fresh bullpen arm and will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.

As for Edman, he underwent arthroscopic wrist surgery in October and was still experiencing pain in Spring Training, forcing him to start the season on the injured list. He’ll now be ineligible to be activated until 60 days from his initial IL placement, which was backdated to three days before Opening Day. In other words, he could rejoin the Cards in late May if he’s healthy by then. He still hasn’t yet begun a rehab assignment, so it doesn’t seem like he has a strong chance of being ready by then, which allowed the Cards to use his roster spot on Roycroft.

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