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Archives for September 2012

Rosenthal On Yankees, Playoffs, Sabermetrics

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The Yankees enter play today with a one-game lead over the Orioles and four games over the Rays. And, it's a good thing this isn't your father's Yankees, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com. If George Steinbrenner was alive today, Rosenthal believes he might have fired manager Joe Girardi after blowing a ten-game lead in the AL East and replaced him with the likes of Lou Piniella. Hal Steinbrenner is almost the polar opposite of his father. So much so that, when Rosenthal asked Brian Cashman of the potential fallout that might occur if the team fails to reach the playoffs, the Yankees' GM said, "We have objective, patient ownership." Also from Rosenthal's column:

  • The new schedule hasn't been a cure-all for small market teams like the Rays. Rosenthal suggests one way to mitigate the Rays’ disadvantage would be to scale revenue sharing so they would receive a greater percentage than a low-revenue club such as the Indians, who compete in a division with lower payrolls.
  • A criticism of the new playoff system is Wild Card teams who have better records than division winners are penalized in the seeding of the Division Series. Rosenthal's solution is to wait until after the Wild Card game to seed the Division Series.
  • The AL CY Young Award voting will be a test of how accepted advanced statistics are by the Baseball Writers Association of America. Rosenthal points out the last eight AL pitchers to either lead or tie for the lead in those categories, like the Rays' David Price this year, each have won the award. The Tigers' Justin Verlander meanwhile leads in wins above replacement and Chris Sale of the White Sox leads in ERA+. Price is tops, however, in quality of opponents faced, based on the rankings of Vince Gennaro, president of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR).
  • Larry Bowa's interview for the Astros' managerial vacancy is a good sign, as rival executives have worried that GM Jeff Luhnow is surrounding himself with too many like-minded sabermetric types rather than building a diverse baseball operations department.
  • The Marlins may have difficulty in sticking with their plan to keep Emilio Bonifacio in center field, play Donovan Solano at second, and make the acquisition of a third baseman their top priority. Rosenthal points out the market for third basemen is bare, so one alternative for the Marlins is to acquire an outfielder and move Bonifacio back to third base.
  • Look for the Rays to exercise their $2.5MM option on Fernando Rodney. Rodney is bidding to become only the second reliever in history (Dennis Eckersley in 1990) to have a season of 40 or more saves and an ERA under 1.00. Rodney leads baseball with 43 saves and his ERA is 0.66.
  • The Cubs will look again this offseason to move Alfonso Soriano, who is one home run and one RBI shy of his first 30-homer, 100-RBI season since 2005. If the Cubs fail to receive a sufficient offer, they could always bring back Soriano, owed $36MM over the next two years, and try to move him at the deadline again. Rosenthal cited the example of Carlos Lee of how it is easier to deal an overpriced player the closer he gets to the end of his contract.

Quick Hits: Pirates, Upton, Angels, Wright, Mets

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Sunday night linkage..

  • “I don’t think it’s ever fair to speculate on people’s jobs … My approach has always been to fully support the team we have in place, and when it’s time to make a change, we make a change," said Pirates owner Bob Nutting to Rob Biertempfel and Karen Price of The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review when asked if there would be any front office or coaching staff changes after the season.
  • Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com surveyed four MLB execs about B.J. Upton's free agent outlook, and their estimates varied greatly. A National League GM predicted sees a three-year, $27MM deal for Upton while the other estimates ranged from four years at $50MM to five years at $70MM. The Rangers, Nationals, Phillies, Braves, Red Sox, Yankees, Reds, Giants, and Cubs are among the teams that could be in need of outfield help this winter.
  • Angels general manager Jerry Dipoto says he is not ready to call this year's team a disappointment, writes Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Dipoto also declined to discuss what owner Arte Moreno might be feeling about this season after investing in Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson over the winter and trading for Zack Greinke in July.
  • Dave Cameron of Fangraphs believes that the Mets should exercise David Wright's option rather than extend him given his second-half slump. By picking up his reasonably-priced $16MM option, the Mets could buy themselves more time and properly evaluate whether he is worth a hefty extension.

Mike Axisa contributed to this post.

Poll: The Second NL Wild Card Spot

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When commissioner Bud Selig and the rest of MLB’s leadership implemented the new playoff system earlier this year, one of the goals was create more excitement and races at the end of the season. The Braves came into the day with a comfortable five-game lead for the first Wild Card spot, but the second spot is very much up for grabs.

The Cardinals currently lead the race for the second Wild Card spot, but the Dodgers and Pirates sit just two games back. The surging Brewers are just three games back, the Phillies and Diamondbacks four back. By the end of the night, the race could be even closer. With roughly 17 games left to play and six teams legitimately in the running for that second Wild Card spot, expect there to be a mad dash to the finish line for the right to play Atlanta in a one-game playoff.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Daisuke Matsuzaka

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Six years ago this month, Daisuke Matsuzaka was the best pitcher in the world not employed by an MLB team. He dominated Nippon Professional Baseball with the Seibu Lions, winning the league strikeout title four times from 2000-2006. The Lions posted him after 2006, and the Red Sox won his negotiating rights (for $51M+) and then signed him to a six-year contract (worth $52MM).

Uspw_6314944Things are much different now, as Dice-K is a few weeks away from becoming a free agent for the first time time in his career. He helped Boston win a World Series in 2007 and finished fourth in the Cy Young Award voting in 2008 (18-3, 2.90 ERA), but things have gone downhill since. Matsuzaka pitched to a 5.76 ERA while missing considerable time with a groin injury in 2009. He stayed reasonably healthy in 2010 but pitched to a 4.69 ERA. After allowing 24 runs in his first 37 1/3 innings of 2011, Dice-K underwent Tommy John surgery.

Matsuzaka, 32, has posted a 7.14 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 in 40 1/3 innings this season since coming off the DL. All of the hype from 2006-2007 is gone, and that six-year contract expires after the season. It's been four years since Dice-K's last sub-4.50 ERA, five years since his last sub-4.0 BB/9, and five years since his last 200-inning season. He has said he would like to pitch until he's 40, though he'll head into this offseason as a reclamation project.

The starting pitching free agent market offers a number of reclamation types, including Colby Lewis, Erik Bedard, and Carl Pavano, all of whom are older than Matsuzaka. A move to a pitcher's park should help his numbers, as would a potential shift to the NL. There wasn't any interest in the right-hander when the Red Sox put him on waivers last month, but that's not surprising given his salary ($10MM). Agent Scott Boras has a way of finding better than expected contracts for his clients, but it's tough to see him getting Dice-K anything more than a one-year, low-base salary deal (with incentives) this winter.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Rosenthal On Upton, Soriano, Olt, Porter

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Highlights from the latest edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..

  • At the age of 28, B.J. Upton will be the youngest outfielder on the open market this winter.  Rosenthal believes that Upton figures to land a deal of at least five years and virtually every NL East team could pursue him.  The Marlins in particular could show strong interest as Dan Jennings was the Rays' scouting director when they drafted him in 2002.  Earlier today, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com checked in with four MLB execs who had varied opinions on what kind of deal Upton will get this offseason.
  • Rafael Soriano could opt-out of his three-year, $35MM deal at the end of this season in pursuit of a larger deal, but that might not be a wise choice.  That would call for Soriano to forfeit his $14MM salary in 2013 and the Yankees would definitely make him a qualifying offer (around $13MM) that would require a team to give up draft pick compensation to sign him.  Historically, that has hurt the value of free agent relievers.
  • The Rangers had little interest in parting with Mike Olt at the deadline but some rival execs think that they'll be more willing to move him this offseason.  While the Rangers have Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli as free agents and may like Olt to be a part of their offensive core going forward, he could have tremendous value as many teams are in search of a strong third base option. 
  • Don't be surprised if the Marlins talk to Nationals third base coach Bo Porter again in the event that they fire Ozzie Guillen.  Earlier this week, the Astros met with Porter, making him the first person to interview for the managerial vacancy.

Astros Notes: Bowa, Martinez, Rays

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The Astros got their managerial search underway earlier this week when they interviewed Nationals third base coach Bo Porter.  Yesterday, we learned that Houston also interviewed Rays bench coach Dave Martinez and interim skipper Tony DeFrancesco.  Here's the latest out of Houston..

  • Larry Bowa confirmed to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (via Twitter) that he interviewed for the Astros' managerial job on Friday.  It was reported that Bowa met with General Manager Jeff Luhnow, but it was not known if Bowa was there to discuss the position of manager.
  • Martinez said that his interview in Houston went well and he's excited about the opportunity to run his own ship, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  The 47-year-old interviewed previously for openings with the Indians and Blue Jays.  Last offseason he was linked to the White Sox but never interviewed.
  • Rays manager Joe Maddon gave Martinez a strong endorsement for the job while adding that he would be disappointed to lose him, Topkin tweets.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Ryan Madson

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Is it possible for a free agent to have much stock after he missed the entire season due to injury? It is when you've been one of the best relief pitchers in baseball for the last half-decade and are still just 32 years old.

Uspw_5547164The Reds invested a one-year, $8.5MM contract in Ryan Madson last winter only to watch him blow out his elbow and require Tommy John surgery near the end of Spring Training. They came into today with an 11-game lead in the NL Central thanks in part to Aroldis Chapman, who has emerged as one of the two or three most dominant closers in baseball in Madson's stead. The team survived the injury just fine.

Madson, however, faces an uncertain offseason. He pitched to a 2.89 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 329 2/3 innings from 2007-2011, including a 32-save campaign in his walk year last season. Agent Scott Boras spent the offseason trying to secure a multiyear pact – at one point it appeared that Madson would be returning to the Phillies before they signed Jonathan Papelbon – before taking the one-year deal from the Reds in late-January.

There isn't much precedent for relievers entering free agency coming off Tommy John surgery, but Manny Corpas did it a year ago. He ultimately took a minor league contract with the Rangers before hooking on with the Cubs this past winter. Given his pedigree, Madson should still be able to land a guaranteed contract this offseason, though it might be of the low-base salary plus incentives variety.

It's worth noting that there is an $11MM mutual option ($2.5MM buyout) in Madson's contract with the Reds. It seems likely that he would exercise his half of the option, but the Reds are unlikely to do the same given Chapman's emergence plus Sean Marshall's presence as the backup plan. Acquiring a pitcher of Madson's caliber on a low-base salary deal is very intriguing and something I'm sure multiple clubs will offer him after the season.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Dodgers Agree To Extend Ned Colletti

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The Dodgers and GM Ned Colletti have agreed to a contract extension, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The two sides have been discussing an extension lately and his current deal included mutual options beyond 2012. The new agreement is a multiyear deal, perhaps as many as three years according to Heyman.

Colletti has been at the Dodgers' helm since November 2005. The team has gone 586-530 under his watch, thrice winning the NL West and never winning fewer than 80 games in a season. They advanced to the NLCS in both 2008 and 2009. He survived the Frank McCourt ownership fallout, and the new Stan Kasten and Magic Johnson led ownership group showed no indications that they were considering a switch at GM.

Our Transaction Tracker shows all of Colletti's moves as Dodgers GM, the second of which is acquiring Andre Ethier from the Athletics. Other notable moves including hiring manager Joe Torre, acquiring Greg Maddux, signing Hiroki Kuroda, extending Matt Kemp, and acquiring Adrian Gonzalez. Clayton Kershaw was also drafted under Colletti's watch.

Colletti: Mattingly Will Return Next Season

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The Dodgers have won just seven of 19 games since their blockbuster trade with the Dodgers, and they're now one game out of a wildcard spot. Despite their second half slide, GM Ned Colletti told reporters (including Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles) that manager Don Mattingly will return next season.

"I think he's done a really good job of keeping it together and there's never an excuse," said Colletti. "He doesn't give any and he doesn't take any. I don't have any doubt that our efforts every day are there, and I think that's one of the main jobs of a manager, to make sure guys are into it … You know that if you get beat, it's not a happy room, it's not one people take lightly and are cavalier. It means something to everybody and that's a credit to him and his staff."

Mattingly is under contact through 2013, and in fact yesterday we heard that the Dodgers are likely to look into a contract extension for their skipper this winter. It's not uncommon for a new ownership group to make changes in the front office and/or coaching staff soon after taking over, but the Stan Kasten and Magic Johnson led group have been nothing but supportive of Mattingly since they took control of the team in April.

Quick Hits: Hamilton, Red Sox, Hanley, Managers

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Current big leaguers Mike Olt, Jurickson Profar, Adam Eaton, Tony Cingrani, Dan Straily, and Carter Capps were all named to Baseball America's Minor League All-Star Team today. Here's the latest from around the league on Friday night…

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