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Archives for September 2012

Projected Super Two Cutoff

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The cutoff for super two players following the 2012 season now projects to be two years and 139 days of service time, according to CAA (Twitter link). Earlier in the 2012 season, the agency had projected a super two cutoff of two years and 134 days. 

Super two status entitles certain players to four years of arbitration eligibility, rather than the usual three. As a result, players who earn the super two designation generally earn more than their peers. Under baseball's new collective bargaining agreement, 22% of players qualify as super twos. This represents an increase from 17% and helps explain why the cutoff is lower than it was a year ago.

The following players will finish the season with less than two years and 139 days of service time: Justin Smoak, Danny Valencia, Michael Brantley, Jordan Schafer, Giancarlo Stanton, Stephen Strasburg, Daniel Hudson, Dan Runzler, Andrew Cashner and Alexi Ogando. These players don't project as super twos. 

Michael Saunders, Alex Burnett and Esmil Rogers would qualify for super two status if the cutoff is two years and 134 days, but not if it's two years and 139 days. Meanwhile, Tyler Colvin should have exactly two years and 139 days of service when the 2012 season ends. All players that are tied at the cutoff get super two status under baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement.

A year ago CAA correctly anticipated that the 2011 cutoff would be two years and 146 days of service time. The official cutoff date can't be determined until the season ends.

Rockies Notes: Hernandez, Gonzalez, Tulowitzki

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Ramon Hernandez ruptured his left distal hamstring tendon and will miss the remainder of the season, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes. The 36-year-old will undergo surgery next week after playing in just 52 games. Here are more Rockies-related notes from Troy Renck of the Denver Post…

  • Hernandez would probably have been an offseason trade candidate, Renck writes (on Twitter). Completing a deal will now be more challenging because of Hernandez’s injuries and age. Hernandez will earn $3.2MM in 2013, the final season of the two-year, $6.4MM contract he signed last offseason.
  • The Rockies need pitching, but Renck repeated that he wouldn't trade Troy Tulowitzki or Carlos Gonzalez for arms (Twitter link). It's risky to assume pitching performances will translate in Denver, as Renck notes.

NL East Notes: Wright, Phillies, Fernandez, Gonzalez

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The Phillies, winners of six in a row, are just four games out of the Wild Card race and back at the .500 mark with a 71-71 record. While a sixth consecutive division title remains out of reach, the Phillies have a remote chance at returning to the postseason. Here are the latest notes from the NL East…

  • Despite baseball's investigation into accusations that agents Seth and Sam Levinson helped procure performance-enhancing drugs for players, David Wright doesn't plan on changing agents, according to the New York Daily News.  "I have known these guys since I was 18," Wright said. "The only thing I have to go off of is the way they have represented me the last 12 years (and) the integrity that I have seen firsthand that they have for the game."  The Mets hold a $16MM club option on Wright's deal for 2013 but the club is expected to pursue a contract extension in the near future.
  • Third base is a long-term need for the Phillies and, as Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer notes, there's also uncertainty at the position in the short-term. Kevin Frandsen has a stress fracture in his left fibula, Placido Polanco is out for the season, Michael Martinez doesn't add much offense and Chase Utley has limited experience at third.
  • The Marlins and Phillies are now heading in different directions, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News. While Miami's early-season struggles continued, the Phillies are now "playing clean games" in the view of manager Charlie Manuel.
  • Top Marlins pitching prospect Jose Fernandez has a chance to join Miami's rotation in 2013, Joe Capozzi Palm Beach Post writes. Fernandez, a first round pick in 2011, figures to start next year in Double-A, according to Capozzi.
  • The deal that sent Gio Gonzalez to Washington for Tommy Milone and Derek Norris has proven to be a win-win trade for the Nationals and Athletics, Matthew Leach of MLB.com writes. Gonzalez is a Cy Young candidate with the Nationals and Milone and Norris are contributing to the success of the A's.

Blue Jays Notes: Lind, D’Arnaud, Villanueva

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Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopoulos addressed a number of topics concerning the club's future in 2013 and beyond tonight and Chris Toman of MLB.com has the goods..

  • Anthopoulos is hoping to see more out of Adam Lind going forward, but noted that the Blue Jays won't be afraid to look elsewhere for better production.  Toronto is on the hook for $5MM in 2013 with club options on him from 2014-16 totaling $22.5MM. 
  • Even if the Blue Jays don't find an out-of-house upgrade at first baseman/designated hitter, Lind could face competition Travis d'Arnaud, who could be in the mix with J.P. Arencibia as the starting catcher.  David Cooper, a 2008 first-round pick who has hit .300/.324/.464 in 45 games this year, could also factor in.
  • The Blue Jays still aren't sure if they see impending free agent Carlos Villanueva holding up as a starter for an entire season.  The right-hander has made 13 starts for the Blue Jays this year, posting a 3.58 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in that role.  Recently, Villanueva told Shi Davidi of Sportsnet that he wants to continue as a starting pitcher.

Yankees Notes: Payroll, Lowe, Pettitte

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The Yankees are fighting to finish the season atop the American League East as the Orioles' strong play has put them neck-and-neck with the Bombers.  Here's a look at the latest on the Yankees as they take on the Red Sox in Boston..

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees abandon their plan to get under the $189MM luxury tax threshold for 2014 if they wind up missing the playoffs.  However, should that happen, Sherman suggests that the Bombers should stay the course as the four other largest payroll teams would all miss the playoffs if they started today.  The Yankees invested $423.5MM in C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett after missing the playoffs in 2008.
  • Yankees pitcher Derek Lowe said he's not sure if he wants to go forward as a reliever next season, tweets Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  "I'll sort that out in the offseason," the 39-year-old said.  Lowe had a 5.52 ERA with 3.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 21 starts for the Indians this season before being DFA'd on August 2nd.  Back in August, agent Scott Boras admitted that contending clubs probably won't look at his client as a starter when he hits the open market.
  • Andy Pettitte threw a four-inning, 55-pitch simulated game earlier today and insists that he's ready to return to action, writes David Waldstein of the New York Times.  Despite the 40-year-old's confidence, the Yankees aren't yet convinced that he's ready to go.

Barajas Willing To Take Less To Return To Pirates

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The Pirates hold a $3.5MM option on Rod Barajas for 2013, but should they decline it, the catcher says that he would be willing to take less to stay in Pittsburgh, writes Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.  Barajas is making $4MM this season and the option for next year doesn't call for a buyout if it's not exercised.

" I would like to be back here," the 37-year-old said. "If that means we have to try to figure something out, then absolutely."

The Pirates have not approached Barajas about whether they will pick up his option or if they'll look to negotiate a new deal.  General Manager Neal Huntington did not rule out Barajas returning in 2013 but also cautioned that the club is "not ready to commit to anything" at the moment.

Pittsburgh could turn to a pair of internal options – Michael McKenry and 2009 first-round pick Tony Sanchez – to fill in at catcher next season should they choose to look elsewhere.  Barajas is hitting just .197/.269/.324 with nine homers in 324 plate appearances this year.

Top Free Agent Infielders

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Each year's free agent class has its strengths and weaknesses. For example, last offseason's class featured a pair of elite first basemen and more shortstop depth than usual. FanGraphs unveiled its free agent leaderboards today and they offer a position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. 

As Dave Cameron noted on Twitter, this year’s group is especially deep in the outfield. Allow me to add to that observation: it’s especially deep in the outfield and especially shallow on the infield. Here’s a look at the top ten free agent infielders (no designated hitters or catchers) ranked by FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement. 

  1. Adam LaRoche, Nationals, 3.1 WAR – LaRoche’s contract includes a $10MM mutual option for 2013. He would like to re-sign with the Nationals.
  2. Jeff Keppinger, Rays, 2.0 WAR – Keppinger could be looking at a two-year deal in this market.
  3. Brandon Inge, Athletics, 1.5 WAR – Inge rebounded to put together a solid season after being released by the Tigers earlier in the year.
  4. Marco Scutaro, Giants, 1.5 WAR – Scutaro figures to be in demand this offseason, but he isn’t adding the same offensive value he did a few years ago.
  5. Kevin Youkilis, White Sox, 1.4 WAR – Youkilis’ contract includes a $13MM club option for 2013.
  6. Eric Chavez, Yankees, 1.2 WAR – We’re getting into backup territory here. No disrespect to Chavez, who has had an excellent career and continues to add value, but it’s hard to believe he’s the sixth-best free agent infielder out there.
  7. Mark Reynolds, Orioles, 1.0 WAR – The hot-hitting Reynolds offers more power than any free agent infielder except LaRoche with 21 home runs. The Orioles have an $11MM club option for 2013.
  8. Ronny Cedeno, Mets, 1.0 WAR – One of the top ten free agent infielders available this winter is Cedeno, the Mets' backup shortstop/second baseman.
  9. Scott Rolen, Reds, 0.9 WAR – Once a force on offense and defense, Rolen can no longer be counted on for 100-plus games.
  10. Adam Kennedy, Dodgers, 0.8 WAR – To put 0.8 wins above replacement in context it's the ninth-best total in Kennedy's career. Yet it's enough for him to place among the top ten infielders available.

The contract options for Jhonny Peralta and Robinson Cano figure to be exercised, so those players aren't included above.

How To Use MLBTR

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David Ortiz Talks Red Sox, Free Agency

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David Ortiz will hit free agency this offseason and he’s looking for a multiyear deal. Sound familiar? It should, but this offseason will be different than most for the Red Sox. The team recently freed up approximately $260MM in payroll yet there are numerous questions heading into the 2012-13 offseason. The future of Ortiz, who’s currently sidelined with an Achilles tendon injury, is one of them. Ortiz recently shared his thoughts on the Red Sox and his upcoming appearance on the free agent market with Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Here are some highlights:

  • Ortiz said he wants to re-sign in Boston, but explained that he expects the Red Sox to win. “We have two wild cards, and we're not even in it,” he said. “You can't let that happen." The team’s current situation is “disgusting” in Ortiz’s view. However, he told Bradford the Red Sox should be better in 2013 since they have payroll flexibility this coming offseason.
  • Ortiz continues seeking a multiyear deal, but he made it clear he’s not looking too far into the future. "The thing is when people talk about me signing a multi-year contract, they make it seem like I'm asking for a four- or five-year deal,” he told Bradford. “A guy like me isn't going to be looking for more than two years in the market.”
  • If the Red Sox front office has questions about potential acquisitions, Ortiz will be “happy to answer" them. He tells free agents that Boston is a good place to play as long as you’re consistent.
  • Ortiz joked that the Red Sox should get three of him if they want to improve.
  • MLBTR's Mark Polishuk recently previewed Ortiz's free agent stock.

LaRoche Hopes To Re-Sign With Nationals

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Nationals first baseman Adam LaRoche told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that he’d prefer to re-sign in Washington this coming offseason when his two-year contract expires. LaRoche has yet to talk to the Nationals about his contract, which includes a $10MM mutual option for 2013. He declined to say how he intends to handle his side of the option, but acknowledged he’d “love to stay” in Washington, ideally for more than one year. 

“On the other hand, I’m not going to do something stupid where I turn down what could be two or three more extra years somewhere else,” he added.

The Nationals see LaRoche as a good fit on defense, on offense and off the field, Kilgore writes. The team would like to keep LaRoche, especially for the one year option. However, team executives would understand if the SFX client pursues multiyear opportunities elsewhere. 

If LaRoche returns to Washington in 2013, Michael Morse and Tyler Moore would be candidates for playing time as corner outfielders and Bryce Harper could stay in center field. Otherwise the Nationals could fill first base internally and pursue a free agent center fielder. I discussed LaRoche’s 2013 option two weeks ago, explaining the potential impact of a qualifying offer.

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