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Trade Candidate: Chris Perez

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Chris Perez is enjoying a nice comeback season in 2012 and made the All-Star team, but the Indians closer has mostly drawn attention for his statements off the field.  Perez criticized Cleveland fans for low attendance and a perceived lack of support last spring, and now the right-hander has spoken out against team management in a recent interview with FOX Sports' Jon Paul Morosi.

Perez is clearly frustrated in Cleveland, and if his latest comments were the last straw for Indians' management, it might be best for both sides if they parted ways this offseason.  The Indians have a deep bullpen that includes the likes of Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and Tony Sipp, with Pestano the favorite to take over closing duties should Perez get traded.

There was talk, in fact, that Pestano could've taken over as closer in 2012 in the wake of Perez's shaky 2011 campaign.  While Perez posted a 3.32 ERA, his advanced metrics (4.65 SIERA, 5.01 xFIP) weren't kind and he had a career-low 5.9 K/9, good for just a 1.5 K/BB ratio.  Perez has bounced back nicely this season (3.51 ERA, 2.55 SIERA, 3.18 xFIP, a 10.4 K/9 and a career-low 2.0 BB/9) and the righty now has a career 3.20 ERA and 266 strikeouts in 270 innings over five seasons. 

At age 27, Perez is in his prime and arguably has more upside than any of the free agent closing options on the market this winter.  He will be arbitration-eligible for the second time this winter after agreeing on a $4.5MM contract for 2012, so you can guess Perez is looking at a raise to around $6MM in 2013.  The escalating cost might've made Perez a trade candidate anyway for the cost-conscious Indians though other teams around baseball may also hesitate to take Perez given that he's on pace to earn even more in 2014 after his final arb year.  Still, $6MM for a proven closer is not a bad price to pay.

Here are a few teams who may be looking for a new closer this offseason….

  • Mets. Frank Francisco is set to earn $6.5MM next season and the Mets may not have much payroll space to work with this winter.  Still, the Mets are known to be looking for bullpen help and could be looking for a longer-term option than Francisco, who has pitched better (3.55 SIERA, 10.07 K/9) than his 5.49 ERA would indicate.
  • Dodgers. A very borderline candidate, as L.A. would only be looking for closing help if Kenley Jensen's heart problems proved to be career-threatening.
  • Astros. Wilton Lopez was recently named closer and the rebuilding Astros will likely look for young arms and low-cost veterans in their bullpen rather than pursue a bigger name this offseason.
  • Red Sox. It's probably unlikely that the Sox would pursue another closer but Perez would provide depth given Andrew Bailey's injury history.
  • Tigers. Jose Valverde is a free agent this winter and the Tigers could look for a younger upgrade to finish games.  It's doubtful the Indians would deal Perez to a divisional rival, especially in this case since Perez singled out the Tigers for praise as a team who spends despite their medium market size.
  • Yankees. If Rafael Soriano leaves for free agency, the Yankees could want a proven closer on hand should Mariano Rivera have a setback in his recovery from a torn ACL.

Dodgers, Colletti Working On Contract Extension

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The Dodgers have opened talks with general manager Ned Colletti on a long-term contract extension, reports Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.  Dodgers chairman Mark Walter confirmed that the team had extended an offer to Colletti, though the GM and team president Stan Kasten didn't comment.  Colletti is in the last guaranteed year of an extension signed after the 2009 season, though Colletti could have returned in 2013 under a mutual option.

Colletti was hired as the Dodgers' GM after the 2005 season and has led the team to no fewer than 80 wins in each of his six full seasons in Los Angeles, good for a 584-525 overall record.  The Dodgers have made three playoff appearances (two NL West titles and a wild card) under Colletti, advancing as far as the NLCS in both 2008 and 2009.

Despite Colletti's contract status and a new ownership group taking over, there has been relatively little speculation that Walter, Kasten and Magic Johnson would hire a new general manager, probably due to the Dodgers' surprising success this year.  Walter commented that he was impressed with how Colletti negotiated and completed the blockbuster trade with the Red Sox that saw the Dodgers take on roughly $260MM in salary in the form of Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Nick Punto. 

AL West Notes: McCarthy, Maddon, Profar, Mariners

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The Rangers are the only AL West club in action tonight, as a win over the Royals can stretch Texas' lead in the division to six games over the A's.  Here's the latest from the AL West…

  • Athletics right-hander Brandon McCarthy underwent surgery last night to stabilize a skull fracture and remove an epidural hemorrhage, according to a team press release.  A CT scan taken today revealed that McCarthy's condition improved, and A's GM Billy Beane is quoted as saying McCarthy is "stable, awake and alert."  McCarthy was struck in the head yesterday by a line drive off the bat of Erick Aybar.
  • Scott Miller of CBS Sports relates how, in 1996, then-Angels GM Bill Bavasi tried to hire Sparky Anderson as the Halos' manager, with the idea that Joe Maddon (then a coach with the team) would take over from Anderson after two years.  The idea didn't come to fruition but Maddon remained on the staff and served as Mike Scioscia's bench coach when the Angels won the 2002 World Series, before eventually moving on to manage the Rays.
  • Jurickson Profar tops MLB.com's latest ranking of the 100 best prospects in baseball.  The Rangers shortstop made his Major League debut on Sunday and homered in his first plate appearance.  From that same list, the Mariners have the highest overall ranking for their multiple prospects, led by starters Taijuan Walker (fifth) and Danny Hultzen (ninth).

Red Sox Notes: Free Agents, Lucchino, Valentine

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Is there any doubt that the Red Sox will be one of the most talked-about teams of the 2012-13 offseason?  September has barely begun and yet there is already heavy speculation about how the Sox will approach the manager situation and the tens of millions in payroll space freed up by last month's trade with the Dodgers.  Here's the latest out of Beantown…

  • The Red Sox could eschew big moves this winter and instead making lower-profile one-year signings in January or February, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal.  Dan Haren, Mike Napoli, Brandon McCarthy or Edwin Jackson are players Boston could look to sign to "pillow contracts" if those players couldn't find acceptable longer-term deals elsewhere.
  • Team president Larry Lucchino didn't comment on Bobby Valentine's controversial interview on WEEI radio, telling ESPN Boston's Joe McDonald that he hadn't heard the interview and that "talk shows are talk shows."  Lucchino did agree with Valentine's description of the Red Sox season as "miserable."
  • Lucchino confirmed owner John Henry's statement that Bill James will have a larger role with the team.  James has served as a senior adviser to the Red Sox since 2003.  "He's never been gone, but he will be even more active than he's been in recent years.  He will be more centrally involved in the evaluation process," Lucchino said.
  • The Mariners made the right move in hiring Eric Wedge as manager over Valentine in 2010, writes Larry Stone of the Seattle Times.  Valentine was one of several candidates who interviewed for the job and there were rumors that Ichiro Suzuki was pushing for Valentine to be hired, though this was denied by both Ichiro and the Mariners.

Poll: Who Will Win The American League East?

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Tonight at Camden Yards, the Orioles and Yankees begin a four-game series that will serve as the most important September baseball in Baltimore in 15 years.  The Yankees seemingly had the AL East in hand at the All-Star break, but the Bombers have won just 20 of 45 games since July 19 and now sit just one game ahead of the surprising O's, who refuse to fade away. 

Despite a -21 run differential, the Orioles have relied on a superb bullpen and an astonishing 24-7 record in one-run games to stay within sight of their first postseason berth (and winning season) since 1997.  Predicted by most pundits to finish last in the AL East and then predicted to fall back to earth after a strong start, Baltimore has instead gotten even better, posting a 21-11 record in August and September.  While Adam Jones has enjoyed a breakout year, the O's lineup has been largely boosted by hitters going on timely hot streaks — Nick Markakis has a .902 OPS since being moved to the leadoff spot, Mark Reynolds has a .917 OPS and 10 homers since July 19 and unheralded bench players like Lew Ford and Nate McLouth have stepped up with key hits. 

The Orioles have 10 games remaining against the Yankees and Rays but otherwise has a fairly favorable schedule over the rest of the season, with only a three-game series in Oakland standing out as another battle with a playoff contender.  The O's do have six games remaining against the Red Sox, however, and it would be ironic if Boston avenged their 2011 collapse in Baltimore by spoiling the Orioles' postseason hopes.

Injuries have played a major role in the Yankees' slide, as C.C. Sabathia, Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Brett Gardner, Ivan Nova and Andy Pettitte have all spent time on the DL, and in the cases of Rivera and Gardner, missed much of the season.  Beyond health, however, New York has also been plagued by a lack of situational hitting, as the Yankees have had trouble scoring with runners in position.  The Yankees' main offensive weapon is the solo home run — not a bad problem to have, but it leads to a somewhat one-dimensional offense that has issues generating runs when the ball isn't flying out of the park.

The Yankees have just seven remaining games against the Rays and Orioles and also face the A's in a three-game series in September.  Beyond those matchups, the Yankees' other 16 games are against the Twins, Red Sox and Blue Jays, so there's plenty of opportunity for the Bombers to re-establish their lead atop the division.

With so much media focus within the division going to the Orioles' Cinderella run, the Yankees' possible collapse and the Red Sox and Blue Jays' disappointing seasons, the Rays' surge back into the playoff race has flown under the radar.  Tampa Bay was just 49-47 on July 22 in large part due to a lack of offensive production, as the likes of Luke Scott and Carlos Pena were underperforming while Evan Longoria was on the disabled list.  Since that date, however, the Rays are 26-15 and sit just 2.5 games back of first place.  With Longoria back and one of the league's best starting rotations in fine form, the Rays are positioned to make another playoff appearance. 

The Rays have nine games remaining against the O's and Yankees, plus a four-game set with the White Sox and a three-game series with the Rangers beginning on Friday.

The Orioles currently hold the top wild card slot, with the Rays 1.5 games behind Oakland for the second wild card.  It's very possible that the two division runners-up could make the postseason anyway, though obviously all three teams would prefer to win the AL East and avoid the sudden-death wild card game.  Which club will end up atop baseball's toughest division come the end of the regular season?

 

Quick Hits: Rockies, Mets, Profar

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The Braves defeated the Rockies 1-0 this afternoon behind one unearned run and another strong start from Tim Hudson. Atlanta now has a 78-60 record and their chances of making the playoffs exceed 90%, according to Baseball Prospectus. Here are today’s links, starting in Colorado…

  • There are still no winners in the trade that sent Ubaldo Jimenez to Cleveland for Alex White and Drew Pomeranz, Troy Renck of the Denver Post writes. White and Pomeranz have been disappointments in the year-plus since the 2011 trade and both must improve the command of their secondary pitches to start seeing better results, Renck writes.
  • The Mets are expected reduce their losses from the $70MM range to $23MM this year, Josh Kosman of the New York Post reports. The Mets cut their payroll considerably last offseason and it currently sits in the $94.5MM range, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. Their payroll is expected to stay in the same range for 2013.
  • Jurickson Profar belongs at the MLB level even if he isn't as physically imposing as some of the sport's other young stars, Yahoo's Jeff Passan writes. Profar, the 19-year-old shortstop prospect who was recently called up by the Rangers, has impressive makeup at a young age, Passan writes.

Amaro: Manuel To Return In 2013

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Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. confirmed to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com that Charlie Manuel will return as the team’s manager in 2013. Manuel will remain in place next year and the sides will re-evaluate following the ’13 season. Amaro said he’s pleased with Manuel’s performance but acknowledged that the two disagree at times, as most GMs and managers do.

Here are some more highlights from Amaro’s Q&A with Salisbury:

  • Amaro said Ryne Sandberg has been great as the organization’s Triple-A manager. The GM declined to call Sandberg the successor to Manuel, but said he’s worthy of consideration for MLB managerial jobs. Amaro added that he is hopeful Sandberg gets the chance to manage in the Major Leagues and said he would like to keep him in the organization.
  • Chase Utley is an option at third base for the 2013 Phillies, Amaro said. The decision depends on Utley’s comfort level at the position. If the Phillies look outside of the organization for third base help they could seek a left-handed hitter to platoon with Kevin Frandsen.
  • The Phillies aren’t impressed by the free agent options at the hot corner. “There are no third basemen out there,” Amaro said. “Very, very few. The options are very, very small. It’s no secret that that’s one of the things we were looking for at the deadline and the availability of third basemen was basically zero. And the ones that were available, the prices on them were enormous.”
  • The Phillies may find their setup relievers from within the organization, Amaro said. Pitchers such as Antonio Bastardo, Phillippe Aumont, Justin De Fratus and Josh Lindblom are options. However, the Phillies were disappointed with Bastardo’s performance this year and he’s an unknown going forward.

Teams With Open 40-Man Roster Spots

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Few teams have open 40-man roster space once rosters swell to accommodate late season reinforcements in September. In the last week alone teams have purchased the contracts of 37 players, including prospects such as Jurickson Profar and Shelby Miller, veterans like Fred Lewis and Xavier Nady and a variety of others. The result: just five teams have open 40-man roster space. 

The Royals (two open spots), Angels (two open spots), Brewers (two open spots), Twins (one open spot) and Reds (one open spot) are the only MLB teams that presently have open 40-man spots, according to MLBDepthCharts.com. These clubs are well-positioned to claim someone should an intriguing player be placed on waivers.

For context there were six waiver claims last September, eight waiver claims in 2010 (remarkably three of them involved Cesar Carrillo) and five waiver claims in 2009. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently recapped some of the best waiver claims of the past year.

Keep in mind that the 25 teams with full 40-man rosters could create roster space by moving a player to the 60-day disabled list or by releasing, outrighting or designating for assignment a rostered player.

Non-Tenders Contributing With New Teams

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The December non-tender deadline is an often-overlooked part of MLB’s offseason schedule, but it’s a significant day. The free agent market is flooded with a couple dozen reinforcements following the annual deadline for teams to extend offers of arbitration to their eligible players. Some of those non-tenders rebound with strong seasons, often in new environments. 

Teams non-tender players for a variety of reasons. Sometimes the clubs would rather risk losing the players to rival teams than go through the potentially expensive arbitration process. In other cases, teams don't have 40-man roster spots to spare or they view players as injury risks.

In total 29 players were non-tendered last offseason and a handful of them have added value for their current organizations. Here’s a look at some 2011 non-tenders who are contributing so far in 2012:

  • Jose Mijares, Giants (non-tendered by Twins) – The left-hander has a 2.86 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 50 1/3 total innings with the Royals and Giants. He's arbitration eligible again this offseason so he’ll be back in San Francisco — unless the Giants non-tender him again.
  • Aaron Laffey, Blue Jays (non-tendered by Royals) – Laffey has made 11 starts and six relief appearances with the Blue Jays, posting a 4.46 ERA in 78 2/3 innings with Toronto.
  • Joe Saunders, Orioles (non-tendered by Diamondbacks) – The Diamondbacks re-signed Saunders for $6MM — less than he would have obtained going through the arbitration process — and obtained 130 solid innings from him before sending him to Baltimore last month. In 141 2/3 total innings, Saunders has a 4.26 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.
  • Mike Baxter, Mets (non-tendered by Mets) – The outfielder has a .285/.390/.444 batting line in 172 plate appearances with the Mets. Terry Collins has limited Baxter's exposure to left-handers this year.
  • Jeff Keppinger, Rays (non-tendered by Giants) – As I explained yesterday, Keppinger is adding lots of value with his versatility and bat. The lefty-masher is hitting .328/.375/.443 in 2012.
  • Pedro Ciriaco, Red Sox (non-tendered by Pirates) – Ciriaco has played second base, third base, shortstop and all three outfield positions for the Red Sox this year while posting a .312/.324/.422 batting line and stealing ten bases in as many attempts. An unexpectedly valuable pickup by GM Ben Cherington.
  • Ryan Theriot, Giants (non-tendered by Cardinals) – Theriot has picked up lots of playing time in San Francisco, posting a .265/.314/.313 batting line in 364 plate appearances.
  • Luke Scott, Rays (non-tendered by Orioles) – Scott has 13 home runs but he's hitting just .223/.274/.439 in Tampa Bay and missed time with a strained oblique and back spasms.

Farrell Likely To Be Top Choice In Boston

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John Farrell has a job and the Red Sox have a manager, but rumors about Boston’s interest in Farrell persist as the Blue Jays prepare for a series at Fenway Park. MLB sources indicated to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that Farrell will be the top choice to replace Bobby Valentine in 2013. Furthermore, people who know Farrell say he’d welcome the opportunity to return to Boston, according to Cafardo. However, Farrell maintains that his focus remains in Toronto.

“My focus and my commitment has been and is here, unequivocally," he told reporters this week.

Farrell, who is under contract for 2013, was Boston’s pitching coach before being hired by the Blue Jays. The Red Sox attempted to acquire him from Toronto twice last year, according to Cafardo. Though the Blue Jays were willing to listen, the sides didn’t agree on compensation. The Red Sox eventually hired Valentine, who’s also under contract for 2013. However, there’s a widespread expectation that Valentine won’t return to Boston next year.

The Red Sox probably wouldn’t want to part with recently-acquired pitching prospect Rubby De La Rosa, but the Blue Jays would love to add someone like him to their organization, Cafardo writes.

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