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Archives for April 2013

Quick Hits: Josh Johnson, DH, Trade Candidates

By Tim Dierkes | April 11, 2013 at 3:00pm CDT

Blue Jays righty Josh Johnson, ranked as our top free agent starter after this season, had the shortest start of his career today in Detroit.  Johnson recorded only four outs, allowing six runs on seven hits and two walks.  With struggling starters Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum and the injured Matt Garza also on that list, the 2013-14 free agent market could be light on starting pitching.  Only three contract year hurlers have thrown well in each of their first two starts: Andy Pettitte, Paul Maholm, and A.J. Burnett.  On to today's links:

  • "If I go out and do my job and do what I'm supposed to do, things will take care of themselves. That's all I can worry about," Johnson told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick regarding his upcoming free agency.
  • American League teams have an advantage in signing free agent sluggers because of the designated hitter, Brewers GM Doug Melvin told ESPN's Jayson Stark.  Melvin thinks the NL will eventually adopt the DH, but before that can happen, at least six NL owners will need to be on board and there would have to be an agreement with the players' union.  One of Stark's sources suggests this change will not happen until after Commissioner Bud Selig retires.
  • One more from ESPN: Jim Bowden named the ten players he finds most likely to be dealt by the deadline, beginning with the Padres' Chase Headley.  Check out MLBTR's midseason trade candidates post here.
  • International bonus pool money can be traded this summer!  Ben Badler of Baseball America explains the rules.
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Mariners Acquire Aaron Harang; Designate Loe

By Tim Dierkes | April 11, 2013 at 2:24pm CDT

The Mariners added rotation depth today, offically acquiring veteran Aaron Harang and cash from the Rockies for minor league reliever Steven Hensley.  The Mariners also announced they've designated Kameron Loe for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for Harang.

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The Rockies acquired Harang and $4.25MM from the Dodgers for catcher Ramon Hernandez last week, and then immediately designated Harang for assignment.  Harang earns $7MM this year and has a $2MM buyout after the season, and the Rockies will send money to the Mariners to cover most of that.  The Rockies will save more than $2MM with the series of trades, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

Harang, 35 next month, posted a 3.61 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9, and 38.6% groundball rate in 179 2/3 innings for the Dodgers last year.  His peripheral stats from 2012 suggest an ERA close to 5.00.  This isn't the Harang of his Reds glory days, when he pitched 230 innings a year with around four strikeouts for every walk.  Harang will likely replace Blake Beavan in Seattle's rotation.  Hensley, 26, posted a 6.27 ERA, 5.3 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, and 1.21 HR/9 in 37 1/3 Triple-A innings last year.

Loe, 31, signed a minor league deal with the Mariners in February but allowed six home runs in 6 2/3 innings to start his season.

The Mariners and Rockies last matched up on a trade in December 2010, when Colorado acquired Jose Lopez for Chaz Roe.  More recently, a pitcher jumped from the Mariners to the Rockies when Jon Garland exercised his opt-out clause to leave the Mariners in March and signed with Colorado.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported the trade was close.  Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Colorado Rockies Seattle Mariners Transactions Aaron Harang Kameron Loe

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Rays See Value In Longoria’s $100MM Extension

By Chuck Myron 2 | April 11, 2013 at 2:11pm CDT

The Rays have made a name for themselves as a club that gets the most out of limited resources. So, when they commit $100MM, as they did with Evan Longoria’s six-year extension in November, it’s not too surprising to see Longoria himself refer to the figure as “an insane number.” The 23rd most lucrative extension in baseball history dwarfs the three-year, $28.5MM extension Tampa Bay gave Scott Kazmir in 2008, the team’s second highest entry on that all-time list. The money also clearly establishes Longoria as the focal point for a team that faces uncertainty about whether it will make a similar commitment to David Price.

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“Keeping David is the hot topic,” outfielder Sam Fuld told MLBTR. “Everybody’s aware that we do have the ability to keep him long-term, but it’s just a cost-benefit analysis of whether it’s worth doling out X amount of money for David and then having fewer dollars to spend on other guys.”

Ben Zobrist, who signed a four-year, $18MM extension in 2010, doesn’t subscribe to the idea that one high-dollar move necessarily precludes another. He, like Fuld and several other players who spoke to MLBTR this spring, ultimately views Longoria’s extension as a positive. Zobrist doesn’t think Rays management gave too much thought to Price when they were negotiating the deal for Longoria.

“Shoot, I don’t think that that’s what they were sitting around doing,” he said. “Like, hey, let’s do this, and not do this. I think they’re taking it one step at a time. With what we’ve got right now, and what our team’s looking like this year, our goal is to win a World Championship this year. They’ve got to make the best decisions they feel for our organization for this year and beyond. Evan was the step that they were able to make in the offseason, and I’m sure they’re trying to do more.”

Principal owner Stuart Sternberg told reporters last month that the team can “absolutely” re-sign Price, but he questioned what the Rays could afford to put around the left-hander if they did. Infielder Sean Rodriguez echoed those sentiments, and believes Longoria's deal is a sign of the team's financial mettle.

"When you see somebody that you’re willing to spend the money on and you want to use, whether it’s as the face of the franchise or what not, it says, yeah, we’re willing to spend the money if it’s somebody who’s going to contribute back to the team and we know it’s going to be beneficial for us to keep long term. Then we’ll do it," Rodriguez said. "That’s what they did with Longo. Hopefully they do that with 14 (Price).”

Even if it doesn't break the bank, Longoria’s deal comes with significant risks. Chief among them might be his durability after a partially torn left hamstring limited him to 74 games last season. Longoria will turn 37 in the final guaranteed year of the extension, and conventional wisdom suggests he’ll become increasingly injury prone as he ages. Manager Joe Maddon isn’t worried, though, based on his view that many players become less susceptible to nagging injuries over time as they continue to refine their workout programs and become further accustomed to the daily grind of the major league schedule. The manager also expressed his belief that a lavish contract doesn’t change a player’s approach, citing his five-category system for describing the attitudes of major league players. 

“For the most part, I think it just truly puts them into that category five player — all I want to do is win,” Maddon said. "They’ve gone through the other stages of this game and now they can really focus on one thing. The attempt to make a lot of money is gone, and now it’s just about winning only. I think that’s what happens most of the time. You get past, ‘I belong here and now I want to make some dough,’ and they do. Now when they show up at the ballpark there’s only one agenda: winning the World Series.”

Maddon praised Longoria for the way he’s handled the extension, one in which he’s solidified his status as a team leader without fostering envy in a clubhouse otherwise filled with players on much cheaper deals. It’s apparent that there’s no undercurrent of jealousy among his teammates.

“He’s one of the best players in the game; he deserves what he got,” right-hander Jeremy Hellickson said. "We’re happy for him, and it doesn’t really affect us too much.”

Pitchers Alex Cobb and Jeff Niemann said they take comfort in knowing Longoria, who led all major league third basemen in UZR in his last full season, will be at the hot corner for years to come. Hitters said they also see a benefit when a star like Longoria signs for the long haul.

“It’s great; it’s refreshing to see a guy who just really cares about the franchise, and that’s sort of a rarity these days,” Fuld said. “It’s kind of uplifting to everybody else. It really helps us buy into the team idea, because given the trades, releases and uncertainty of the game, it’s difficult sometimes to look at the team aspect of things. It’s easy to individualize things and just worry about yourself, but when somebody makes what some would term a sacrifice, it really puts a lot in perspective and allows us to focus on the team.”

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Tampa Bay Rays Evan Longoria

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Twins Kicking Tires On Julio Borbon

By Tim Dierkes | April 11, 2013 at 11:56am CDT

The Twins are kicking the tires on Rangers center fielder Julio Borbon, a team official tells Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN.  Wolfson senses the Twins won't trade for Borbon, but could claim him off waivers if he's available to them.  Wolfson notes that struggling rookie center fielder Aaron Hicks is a factor for the Twins.

Borbon, 27, was designated for assignment by the Rangers yesterday.  During the first month of the season, last season's records are used to determine waiver order, so the Astros, Cubs, and Rockies will have a crack at Borbon before the Twins if he does hit waivers next week.  Borbon hit .304/.349/.433 in 584 Triple-A plate appearances last year.

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Minnesota Twins Texas Rangers Julio Borbon

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Poll: When Will Giancarlo Stanton Be Traded?

By Tim Dierkes | April 11, 2013 at 11:40am CDT

The Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton hit 93 home runs in his first 371 games, leading MLB in slugging percentage last year as a 22-year-old.  He's under team control through 2016 and hasn't gotten expensive yet.  The Marlins sliced payroll drastically in the November blockbuster with the Blue Jays, but Stanton won't even be arbitration eligible until after this season.  If we look at the examples of Miguel Cabrera and Josh Beckett, they were traded with three years of big league service time, a point Stanton will reach after this season.

The 2005 Marlins were trying to win, however, and that's probably why Beckett was dealt after the season rather than during it.  Cabrera was not dealt as part of the team's fire sale during the 2005-06 offseason, but rather after the '07 season.  So, Cabrera stayed with the club for two full post-fire sale seasons.

When star shortstop Hanley Ramirez had two years of big league service, the Marlins signed him to a record-setting six-year extension.  He remained with the team for the first three-plus years of that deal, and was traded to the Dodgers after a notable decline in performance.

Your turn to weigh in: with nearly every team in baseball wanting to get their hands on Giancarlo Stanton, when will he be traded?

When Will Giancarlo Stanton Be Traded?
During the 2013 season 40.12% (5,433 votes)
During the 2013-14 offseason 30.46% (4,125 votes)
During the 2014 season 7.30% (988 votes)
During the 2014-15 offseason 6.76% (915 votes)
Stanton will walk as a free agent after '16 4.41% (597 votes)
Stanton will sign a long-term extension to stay in Miami 4.39% (595 votes)
During the 2015-16 offseason 2.67% (361 votes)
During the 2015 season 2.30% (312 votes)
During the 2016 season 1.60% (217 votes)
Total Votes: 13,543
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MLBTR Polls Miami Marlins Giancarlo Stanton

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The Future Of Barry Zito

By Tim Dierkes | April 11, 2013 at 10:26am CDT

Giants lefty Barry Zito has thrown 14 scoreless innings across two starts to begin his 2013 season.  Why does this matter?  As Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News notes, Zito will trigger an $18MM option for 2014 if he reaches 200 innings this season.  Furthermore, Zito would have the option of taking a $3.5MM buyout and becoming a free agent instead.

When I mentioned this a week ago, I didn't give much thought to the idea of Zito reaching 200 innings — he hasn't done it since his 2006 contract year with the A's.  But now, he has 14 innings in the books for his first two starts.  Here are his innings pitched per start numbers as a Giant:

  • 2007: 5.93
  • 2008: 5.63
  • 2009: 5.82
  • 2010: 6.01
  • 2011: 5.52
  • 2012: 5.76

If we generously assume that Zito will make 33 starts this year, he needs 186 over his final 31, for an average of exactly six innings per start from here on out.  Zito is capable of pulling this off, but I would not bet on it.

If Zito does reach 200 innings, Kawakami suggests the 2014 option triggering would be a good thing for the Giants.  That's because the Giants would have to pay a hefty $7MM buyout if Zito does not reach the threshold, so it's really a marginal cost of $11MM.  He makes a good point.  

Kawakami also notes that Zito could choose $3.5MM and free agency, instead.  If Zito could demand a two-year, $26.5MM deal (as Ryan Dempster did), plus the $3.5MM buyout, would that be better than just taking the $18MM for one year?  Yes, unless Zito is relatively certain he could get more than $12MM for his age 37 season in 2015.  If Zito does opt for free agency, I think the Giants would be unlikely to make a qualifying offer.

Zito's agent, Scott Boras, will be a big factor if he reaches 200 innings.  Boras is likely to push for free agency, as he has so many times before in these situations.

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San Francisco Giants Barry Zito

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Extension Candidate: Jason Heyward

By Tim Dierkes | April 11, 2013 at 9:30am CDT

Braves right fielder Jason Heyward is one of few star-caliber players currently going year-to-year.  Just 23 years old, Heyward is under the Braves' control as an arbitration eligible player through 2015.  What would a fair extension look like for the Excel Sports Management client?

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One comparable could be the Orioles' Adam Jones.  Jones signed a six-year, $85.5MM extension in May of last year, about three months after the salary for his second arbitration year was determined.  A Heyward extension, if it were done during this season, would include that second arb year.  Jones was closer to free agency than Heyward is, which generally gets the player more money.  Since Heyward has less service time than Jones did, perhaps the Braves could replace the fifth guaranteed free agent year with a club option.  That would put us around $75MM over six years (2014-19).  Even if the 2020 club option is exercised, Heyward would be able to enter free agency at age 31 and get another big contract.

The Braves, perhaps, could point to an older but more evenly matched Orioles outfielder extension, the one Baltimore did with Nick Markakis prior to the 2009 season.  At the three-year service point, Markakis compared favorably to Heyward in terms of OBP and SLG.  Both players had exactly 59 career home runs, but Markakis had 33% more RBIs and a superior platform year, one in which he posted a .406 OBP.  So even though that contract is four years old, the Braves could make a case against guaranteeing much more than the $63.1MM Markakis received covering his second arbitration year through his third free agent year (five years in total for that slice).  The Orioles did not get a club option on Markakis or Jones, however, so that will be a tough sell for Heyward.

One thing to note about Heyward, of which the Braves are surely aware, is that last year he derived a lot of value through defense, and that generally doesn't pay in arbitration.  Last year's high-water marks of 27 home runs and 82 RBIs are decent, but Heyward would have to take his offensive counting stats to another level to break the bank in arbitration.  In February there was talk of the Braves trying to buy out Heyward's arbitration years, but I don't see much reason for the club to do a two-year deal.  They haven't done a long arbitration year extension in general since Brian McCann in March 2007, according to our extension tracker, and Heyward has significantly more service time than McCann did.  If the Braves want to secure some of Heyward's free agent years, now might be the ideal time.  A five or six-year offer in the $63-75MM range would be fair.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Atlanta Braves Extension Candidates Jason Heyward

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Mets Monitoring Giancarlo Stanton, Carlos Gonzalez

By Tim Dierkes | April 11, 2013 at 8:04am CDT

The Mets "retain an unfilled craving for a marquee outfielder," writes Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, and are monitoring superstars such as Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins and Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies.  One Mets person told Martino "there is heat there," in regard to the team having a preliminary discussion with the Marlins about Stanton.  Still, Martino is unsure whether GMs Sandy Alderson and Larry Beinfest have discussed the powerful right fielder.

To acquire four years of Stanton, the Mets would likely have to part with their two best prospects, pitcher Zack Wheeler and catcher Travis D'Arnaud.  An associate of Alderson's told Martino the GM "did not have any extra attachment to those players, simply because he traded for them."

According to Martino, the Mets debated using Wheeler to get Justin Upton or Wil Myers, during the Winter Meetings.  They also considered asking for the Dodgers' Andre Ethier in an R.A. Dickey deal, and this spring checked in on the Cubs' Alfonso Soriano.  So, it appears the Mets' long-term interest in improving the outfield runs the gamut, from the game's best young stars to overpaid veterans.  The Mets were willing to increase payroll to the $125MM range last winter for the right players, writes Martino.

Keep in mind that no deals are close, and the idea that Stanton or CarGo could become available this year is speculation.

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Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Dodgers Miami Marlins New York Mets Alfonso Soriano Andre Ethier Carlos Gonzalez Giancarlo Stanton Travis D'Arnaud Zack Wheeler

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AL East Notes: Ellsbury, Red Sox, Ichiro, Yankees

By Zachary Links | April 10, 2013 at 9:46pm CDT

In an interview with Mut & Merloni on WEEI, ESPN's Buster Olney said that the perception is that Jacoby Ellsbury will take Scott Boras' advice when it comes to free agency.  That means chasing the biggest payday available, and Olney sees the outfielder leaving the Red Sox if he hits the open market.  Here's more from around baseball..

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that there was not unanimity in the Yankees front office about bringing back Ichiro Suzuki and that the move was fueled by the club's hierarchy.  There was specific disagreement about giving the veteran a two-year contract and there were execs who would have preferred to see that money directed to Russell Martin instead.
  • The Orioles' trade of Luis Ayala shows their faith in left-hander T.J. McFarland, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun.  O's skipper Buck Showalter echoed those sentiments and also added that the club likes the player they got back, reliever Chris Jones.
  • MLB's 40-somethings have shown that they can still produce, including the elder statesmen of the Yankees, writes John Schlegel of MLB.com.
  • While it's a small sample size, the early returns on Vernon Wells are promising for the Yankees, writes MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince.
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Boston Red Sox New York Yankees Ichiro Suzuki

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MLBPA To Consider Permanent Certification For Jay-Z

By Zachary Links | April 10, 2013 at 8:28pm CDT

MLBPA Executive Director Michael Weiner says the union will consider whether Jay-Z was selling his interest in the Brooklyn Nets, among other things, in deciding whether to grant him permanent certification to represent MLB players in contract talks with clubs, writes Liz Mullen of Sports Business Daily.

Jay-Z and two other employees of his Roc Nation Sports company have applied to become MLBPA-certified agents.  The rapper has secured temporary limited certification to serve as a baseball agent but is currently partnered with CAA Sports and agent Brodie Van Wagenen.

“We look forward to getting the application from all the Roc Nation individuals. We will examine if there are conflict or ownership issues that need to be addressed, including whether Mr. Carter is going to divest an interest in the Nets," Weiner said. 

Jay-Z made waves last week when he and CAA managed to pull Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano away from Scott Boras.  Many believe that the move will lead Cano to working out a contract extension with the Yankees, but Van Wagenen says that is not a given.

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