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A.J. Burnett Still Considering Retirement

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SEPT. 21: Burnett says he remains "50-50" on whether or not he'll play next year, reports Karen Price of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. He reiterated that, if he does not hang up his spikes, he wants to stay in Pittsburgh. "I do want to go out with a bang," said Burnett, "and I do want to go out a Pirate." 

After logging a 3.51 ERA in 202 1/3 innings in 2012, Burnett has followed up with 176 innings of 3.43 ERA pitching this year, including a career-best 9.8 K/9. Bucs GM Neil Huntington said that the team "certainly ha[s] interest in A.J. returning." Though it sounds as if he won't test the market, Burnett ranks fifth among all free agent starters on the list compiled by MLBTR's Tim Dierkes.

MAR. 27: A.J. Burnett is mulling whether to retire after the 2013 season, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.  However, if the 36-year-old decides to keep playing, he might only consider an offer from the Pirates for next season.

“I enjoy it here and I enjoy these guys,” Burnett said. “If I was to keep playing, I wouldn't want it to be anywhere else but Pittsburgh. My wife and I talk about it now and then. But it's something I've got to put on the back burner. I'm just going to concentrate on this season, one start at a time.”

While Burnett is fond of Pittsburgh, he says that he is not currently talking with the club about a new deal.  Last year, Burnett posted a 3.51 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 31 starts.

The right-hander is in the final year of a five-year, $82.5MM contract that he initally signed with the Yankees, so he won't be hurting for cash if he decides to walk away.  For his career, Burnett owns a 4.05 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 across 14 seasons with the Marlins, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Bucs.

Jeff Todd contributed to this post.

Free Agent Faceoff: Tim Lincecum vs. Ubaldo Jimenez

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For today's installment of MLBTR's Free Agent Faceoff series, we'll look at a couple of former aces, both 29-year-old righties, whose careers have followed a similar trajectory over the last few years: Tim Lincecum and Ubaldo Jimenez.

These guys were once expected to headline this year's free agent class. Over the 2009-10 seasons, Lincecum (11.7 fWAR) and Jimenez (12.1 fWAR) were among the ten most productive pitchers in the game. In 2011, they took a step back but were still solid: looking past their divergent ERA figures (2.74 for Lincecum; 4.68 for Jimenez), both posted fWAR tallies in the mid-3's. Last year, the wheels fell off. The two combined for just one win above replacement. 

The 2013 season has seen partial resurrections for both pitchers. Certainly, neither will hit the market as an ace. But both bring high strikeout rates and durability to the table. Since 2008, neither hurler has failed to make at least thirty starts. Of course, that statistic also implies mileage: Lincecum has logged over 1400, and Jimenez just shy of 1300, career innings. But these one-time stars should generate a lot of interest in a pitching market largely bereft of top-level talent. Let's take a closer look:

At first glance, Lincecum's 2013 season looks like a marginal improvement on 2012, and in some ways it is: he is carrying just a 4.44 ERA in 190 2/3 innings, and his strikeouts are down (though so are his walks). On the other hand, Lincecum's year looks much better in the eyes of advanced metrics: his FIP (3.77), xFIP (3.57), and SIERA (3.75) are all better than his 2013 ERA as well as his 2012 marks. Broadly, Lincecum seems to have figured out how to be successful — albeit not dominant — with less overwhelming stuff. As Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com writes, Lincecum is a more mature pitcher now.

Though Lincecum's fastball velocity dipped in 2010, it took a more remarkable downturn between 2011 (92.2 MPH) and 2012 (90.4 MPH). Not coincidentally, perhaps, his offspeed offerings (slider, curve, change up) all registered negative pitch values last year. Lincecum's change, in particular, went from being his best pitch to his worst, as he was seemingly unable or unwilling to pound the zone low-and-away with the offering. He has apparently re-learned how to use his slow ball in 2013, to improved results. Though Lincecum no longer looks like a top-tier pitcher, he proved this season that he can still dial it up at times (as in his no-hitter) and, perhaps more importantly, that he should be a reliable rotation piece. 

Likewise, Jimenez entered the year with real questions about whether or not he would continue to be a guy that a team felt comfortable trotting out every fifth day. As with Lincecum, he has in large part answered those questions. MLBTR's Steve Adams just profiled Jimenez, who is likely to exercise his right to void the $8MM club option that the Indians hold on him for 2014. As Adams noted, Jimenez has produced excellent results at the right time: he sports a 2.72 ERA and 2.31 K:BB ratio over his last 145 2/3 innings, and has restored his ground-ball rate to his career levels. Though advanced metrics do not quite support his cumulative 3.39 ERA on the year, neither do they undermine his usefulness: Jimenez sports a 3.62 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, and 3.88 SIERA. 

Even moreso than Lincecum, Jimenez has dealt with a drastic velocity decline. His fastball, which once sat at 96, dropped to a 93.9 MPH average in 2011 and then fell off a table last year to 92.5 MPH. In reponse to his poor results in 2012, Jimenez made adjustments to his repertoire. He has continued to increase the usage of his change-up ever since his speed started to dip, and now throws it 20.2% of the time. More importantly, perhaps, Jimenez has largely abandoned his curve (3.7%) for his slider (22.3%), a big swing from his previous pitch mix. While I cannot make a full case for causation, the slider has the highest pitch value of any of Jimenez's offerings in 2013. Whatever the reason, Jimenez has restored his ability to generate swings and misses (8.8% SwStr% in 2013 vs. 7.0% in 2012), reduced his home run tendencies (0.85 vs. 1.27 HR/9), and restored his K:BB ratio to his prime levels (2.29 vs. 1.51 K:BB) while carrying a career-best 9.23 K/9.

Lincecum and Jimenez both have approximately the same age and arm mileage, and have posted similar underlying skill metrics in 2013. The Giants star has had greater highs and less-pronounced lows in his career than his counterpart in Cleveland, but in 2013 Jimenez actually increased his strikeout capabilities and outpaced Lincecum in fWAR (2.6 vs. 1.5). So, which one would you prefer your team target? 

Free Agent Profile: Scott Kazmir

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Nine months ago, Scott Kazmir could not find a team willing to give him a Major League contract.  After all, the former phenom pitched (poorly) for the Sugarland Skeeters in 2012 and hadn't had big league success since 2008.  However, Kazmir's rise from the ashes began with rediscovered velocity in a bullpen session behind his house last summer, as chronicled by Howard Megdal of Sports on Earth, and now he's probably one of the 15 best free agent starting pitchers available.

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Strengths/Pros

Kazmir doesn't turn 30 years old until January, so by free agent standards he's still young.  His velocity has returned: he's averaging 92.5 miles per hour on his fastball, his best since his rookie season.  His fastball velocity is tied for fifth among all free agent starters, and only seven southpaw starters throw harder in all of baseball.  This year he's whiffed nearly 23% of the batters he's faced, a figure only three free agents have topped.

Additionally, this is the first year in his career Kazmir has walked fewer than three per nine innings.  The combination of strikeouts and control leads ERA estimator SIERA to peg him at 3.62, fourth best among free agent starters.

While Kazmir has put together a nice season, it's difficult to picture the Indians making a qualifying offer and risking a one-year, $14MM deal.  If they don't make such an offer, Kazmir will not be tied to draft pick compensation.

Weaknesses/Cons

Kazmir will likely finish the season with fewer than 160 innings, unless the Indians make the playoffs.  Though he earned the Indians' fifth starter job out of spring training, a right rib cage strain delayed his return to the Majors until April 20th.  Kazmir's innings total is also held down by his inability to go deep into games, as he's averaged about 5.4 frames per start.  He's averaged 17.5 pitches per inning, the 11th-highest in baseball for those with 100 innings.  He's also had some health scares earlier in his career, with DL time in '06 for shoulder inflammation and in '08 for an elbow strain.

The bigger issue is how unlikely Kazmir's story has been.  Years of data suggested he wasn't a Major League pitcher, and now he'll require a multimillion dollar commitment on the strength of 156 innings or so.  What if his velocity disappears again?  What if his arm responds poorly to the innings jump he made in 2013?  Any team signing Kazmir is taking a leap of faith.

2013 hasn't been a flawless year, anyway, as Kazmir has allowed more hits than innings pitched and has allowed 1.18 home runs per nine innings.  Generally I shrug off a .320 batting average on balls in play and a 12.3% home run per flyball rate, but those things did happen, and Kazmir's actual ERA is 4.34.

Personal

Kazmir grew up idolizing Nolan Ryan and later patterned himself after Billy Wagner, according to JockBio.com.  Kazmir's father worked for a Texas welding supply company run by Adam Dunn's uncle, and the two future big leaguers sometimes played Wiffle ball together, reported Albert Chen of SI.com.  Drafted 15th overall by the Mets in 2002, Kazmir was traded to the Rays in '04 for Victor Zambrano in an infamously lopsided deal.

Market

"I would love to stay here," Kazmir told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer this month in regard to re-signing with the Indians, adding, "I'm very interested…I'd love to contribute and continue to be with this group."  The Indians also have to determine the future of Ubaldo Jimenez, another coveted free agent starter.

Kazmir has earned over $30MM in his career, mostly by virtue of a 2008 three-year extension signed with the Rays.  It's too early to say whether he'll opt for the comfort of Cleveland, where he resurrected his career, or try to find the largest and longest contract possible on the open market given the uncertainty he faced over the last several years.  Kazmir is a Houston native, but it's unclear whether geography will be a factor in free agency.

Expected Contract

The bar for a two-year contract for a starting pitcher is not terribly high — Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton, Carlos Villanueva, and Kevin Correia reached it last offseason.  That third year can be hard to come by, and if Kazmir's main goal is security, perhaps a vesting option could be brokered by agent Brian Peters.  If Kazmir is simply trying to maximize his earnings and has faith in his rediscovered ability, he might prefer a one-year deal in the $8-10MM range, allowing him to further prove himself in 2014 before returning to free agency.

In the end, I expect Kazmir to sign a two-year, $16MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Kendrick, Bradley, Balentien, Brennaman

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This Sunday is Mariano Rivera Day at Yankee Stadium — a day set aside to commemorate the Hall of Fame career of the greatest closer in baseball history. However, as the New York Post's Ken Davidoff writes, Rivera came close to never saving a game in Yankee pinstripes. Prior to the 1996 season, the Yankees debated flipping Rivera to the Mariners in exchange for offensively challenged shortstop Felix Fermin because they weren't sure a hot prospect by the name of Derek Jeter was ready. Several members of the Yankees staff, including then-assistant-GM Brian Cashman and then-manager Joe Torre talked president George Steinbrenner out of the deal. Jeter went on to win the AL Rookie of the Year award, while Rivera finished third in the Cy Young voting with 107 2/3 innings of dominant relief work. Here's more from around the league…

  • Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick will be shut down after getting a second opinion on his injured right shoulder, reports MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. Though the move could be purely precautionary, Kendrick had expected to return to the rotation. As Zolecki notes, any concern over Kendrick's shoulder could play a role in the team's decision whether to offer him salary arbitration. The 29-year-old is set to reach his fourth and final season of arbitration eligibility, and will be due a raise on the $4.5MM he earned last year. He has struggled to a 4.70 ERA in 182 innings on the season, his worst campaign since 2010. Advanced metrics see things somewhat differently, though they do not necessarily make him look much more appealing in broader terms: Kendrick's 4.01 FIP and 4.15 xFIP are actually the second-best tallies of his career. By measure of SIERA, the hurler has never posted a sub-4.00 season.
  • Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers says that phenom Archie Bradley will not reach the bigs this year, reports Steve Gilbert of MLB.com. "To add him to the roster in the winter when roster spots are very valuable to us — and the team being pretty much out of contention — didn't make a lot of sense," said Towers. The 21-year-old starter will, however, get a chance to earn a spot in the club's 2014 rotation in spring training, according to the Snakes' GM.
  • Wladimir Balentien's historic season in Japan has led to speculation that he might be a big league target in spite of his long-term deal with the Yakult Swallows. For his part, however, Balentien insists he has had no thoughts of a move, per a Nikkan Sports report (link in Japanese) transmitted via Twitter by Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker. "No. I'm surprised that's come up," said Balentien in reference to the rumors."I'm with the Swallows for four years."
  • Marty Brennaman, the Reds' radio voice since 1974, has just inked a new three-year deal at age 71, reports Nick Hurm of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Brennaman received the Ford C. Frick Award over thirteen years back, and partnered with fellow legend Joe Nuxhall for over thirty seasons. 

Jeff Todd contributed to this post.

Giants Notes: Miller, Pence, Lincecum, Lopez

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Famed Giants broadcaster Jon Miller sat down with Howard Megdal of Sports On Earth to discuss the team's disappointing campaign. He says that the team faces a whole new ballgame now that the long-time rival Dodgers are running a massive budget. San Francisco is somewhat hampered by its $20MM+ annual stadium payments, says Miller, who notes that "the cost of a superstar bat, or a superstar pitcher, has to go to the mortgage every year."

  • Miller tells Megdal that he expects the Giants will try to bring back both of their top free agents, Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum.
  • San Francisco has decided that it will extend qualifying offers to both Pence and Lincecum, reports CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman, with the expectation that neither will accept. Heyman reiterates that, as we learned a week back, San Francisco has decided to prioritize a long-term deal with Pence. That does not mean, he hastens to add, that the team is not interested in exploring a new contract with the popular Lincecum. 
  • Regarding Pence, Heyman says that the Giants "are believed to have signaled a willingness" to meet the four-year, $56MM that Nick Swisher recently received from the Indians. Heyman notes that Pence's representatives at BHSC could point to the Andre Ethier extension (five years, $85MM) or even the Jayson Werth deal (seven years, $126MM) to justify a higher asking price.
  • Left-handed reliever Javier Lopez says he believes he will return to San Francisco, but knows that the team has other more pressing priorities, reports Chris Haft of MLB.com. "The front office and coaching staff are on the same page as far as my wanting to stay here," said the 36-year-old southpaw. "San Francisco is a beautiful place to play, and I love playing there. … But there are a lot of spots that need to be filled before they get to me." Lopez earned $4.25MM this year, and threw 38 2/3 innings of 1.63 ERA baseball and registering a sturdy 8.1 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. He has held lefties to a .154/.211/.225 line.

Manager Notes: Weiss, Yost, Ventura, Sandberg, Johnson

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With the regular season drawing to a close, let's take a look at a few managerial situations around the league:

  • Walt Weiss is expected to return for a second year as the Rockies manager, reports Troy Renck of the Denver Post. Colorado owner Dick Monfort says the club has been pleased with Weiss's growth in the role, and Weiss says he has every intention of staying on. Though Renck clarifies via Twitter that pen has not yet gone to paper, he says that a new deal is largely a formality. The Rockies, in turn, have stated through their team Twitter account that, while there is mutual interest in a return, "nothing is official as of now."
  • The fate of Royals manager Ned Yost is entirely in the hands of general manager Dayton Moore, owner David Glass told Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. Glass added that he feels both Moore and Yost have performed their jobs well. Moore told Dutton that he won't discuss the contracts of Yost and the coaching staff until after the season.
  • Though he declined a contract extension opportunity just last winter, White Sox manager Robin Ventura says he wants to keep his post for the foreseeable future, reports Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com. Ventura's current deal runs through the end of next season.
  • The early returns are positive on Ryne Sandberg's run as interim manager of the Phillies, but he says he has yet to hear from the front office on his future, reports Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Zolecki opines that it is a "near certainty" that the Phils will look to keep Sandberg on for next year, as he has led the team to an 18-14 mark since taking over for the fired Charlie Manuel.
  • Nationals manager Davey Johnson says he would have offered to step aside if the team had not made a run to return to the fringes of the Wild Card race, writes Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Though GM Mike Rizzo has made clear he had no intentions of dismissing the veteran from his post, Johnson explained that he would have wanted to afford bench coach Randy Knorr or third base coach Trent Jewett a chance to take an audition at the helm. Kilgore notes that Knorr seems to be the most likely internal option to take over next year.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Joe Nathan Can Void 2014 Club Option; Seeks Multi-Year Deal

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After finishing his 55th game of the season, Rangers closer Joe Nathan is now entitled to void the $9.5MM option that Texas would otherwise hold for 2014, reports T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. If Nathan elects to exercise the contract provision, he will sacrifice the right to a $750k buyout and become a free agent. Nathan is represented by Dave Pepe of Pro Agents, Inc.

Though he is now capable of taking bids on the open market, Nathan says that he hopes to stay in Arlington for the foreseeable future. "The only reason to have that incentive in play is to have a little bit of power in getting a multiyear deal," Nathan explained. "Other than that, I'm just glad to get to that point and have it over and done with." 

The 38-year-old has been stellar during his time in Texas. After posting 37 saves in 2012, Nathan has picked up 39 more this year and carries a 1.53 ERA over 58 2/3 innings. Though he has failed to repeat the incredible 6.00 K:BB ratio he posted last year, Nathan is still working at a 3.10 K:BB clip, fanning ten batters per nine innings, and holding opposing hitters to a .168 average.

Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine declined to discuss Nathan's future. He said that the club has "not had any discussions on our class of free agents," while noting that "Joe is prominent among them." Though the contending Rangers surely want a solid late-inning option for 2014, the team does have two other established closing options under contract in Joakim Soria and Neftali Feliz. 

NL Central Notes: Liriano, Choo, Gregg

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MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince offers up a list of what he considers to be the Top 10 acquisitions of this past offseason, headlined by the Pirates' signing of Francisco Liriano. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has also tabbed Liriano as the best open-market pick-up of 2013. Recently, MLBTR's Steve Adams got GM Neal Huntington's take on that signing as well as some other recent offseason acquisitions. Here are a few more notes from the National League's Central division:

  • A Reds player told John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link) that pending free agent outfielder Shin-Soo Choo "loves it" in Cincinnati and that teammates have been "working on him"to stay in town. Of course, with several big contracts already on the books, and with Billy Hamilton potentially ready to help at the MLB level, it has been fairly questioned whether the Reds would be in the mix for Choo. 
  • Cinci GM Walt Jocketty says the team is in fact interested in bringing back Choo, fellow Enquirer newsman C. Trent Rosecrans reports. "We feel we have a good fit for him," Jocketty explained. "We have a winning team that is built to win." The GM implied that the team had hoped to talk extension with Choo's agent, Scott Boras, earlier this year. "We've expressed to him all year [sic] our interest in re-signing him," said Jocketty. "He's wanted to wait or maybe Scott wants to wait until the year is over. We have interest in re-signing. We'll do everything we can to make that happen." Now set to hit the market after an outstanding season, Choo's price tag figures to be higher than it would have been in a mid-year extension scenario. He currently occupies the fifth slot on the 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings of MLBTR's Tim Dierkes.
  • After apparently misunderstanding comments from manager Dale Sveum regarding save opportunities down the stretch, Cubs closer Kevin Gregg blasted the organization in the media. As detailed by ESPNChicago.com's Bruce Levine and Jesse Rogers, GM Theo Epstein says that he could release Gregg, and will consider the decision overnight. Epstein explained that the team had no intentions of removing Gregg from his role, but instead wanted to allow recent acquisition Pedro Strop to finish a few games. 
  • Even if Gregg holds on with Chicago for the rest of the year, the incident — along with Strop's audition — could impact whether the team has any interest in bringing him back next year. Though he has cooled down considerably after a remarkable comeback in the season's earlygoing, Gregg has notched 32 saves on the year. Either way, as Mike Axisa of CBSSports.com notes, Gregg recently triggered a $500k bonus by finishing his 50th game of the year.

NL East Notes: Pierre, Polanco, Braves, Nationals

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Marlins outfielder Juan Pierre just passed Joe DiMaggio for the 175th slot on MLB's all-time hit list with his 2,215th base knock, a milestone brought to my attention at least by the Sun Sentinel's Juan C. Rodriguez. Though DiMaggio missed three prime years due to military service, it remains an impressive accomplishment for the speedy Pierre, who will become a free agent at the end of the year. Elsewhere in the National League East …

  • Fellow Marlins veteran Placido Polanco wouldn't commit one way or another when asked by Rodriguez if he would return for a 17th Major League season next year. The thrd baseman, who resides in Miami, did seem to hint that this could be his final season with his answer: "It depends," Polanco said. "It has to be close to home. I have to see what's out there, but the kids, the wife and family is probably ready for me to be home now."
  • Only two players — Tim Hudson and Brian McCann — on the current Braves roster were with the club when it last won a division title, writes David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (subscription required). Neither veteran is guaranteed to be back with Atlanta in 2014, however, as each is set to hit free agency. McCann declined to talk about his future, instead commenting that he's focused on making a deep playoff run and adding some banners to Turner Field.
  • The Nationals have opted to sign free agents like Edwin Jackson and Dan Haren to one-year deals to fill out their rotation in each of the past two offseasons, but James Wagner of the Washington Post writes that the development of Taylor Jordan and Tanner Roark might not make that a necessity. The development of that pair, plus the continued maturation of arms like A.J. Cole and Sammy Solis, gives the Nats the option to stick with internal options, sign a free agent or make a trade. GM Mike Rizzo wouldn't rule out any of the three.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

International Notes: Marlins, Guerrero, Abreu, Twins

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A look at the latest on the international front…

  • The Marlins made a bid for Cuban shortstop Alexander Guerrero prior to the 26-year-old's decision to hire Scott Boras as his new agent but were told that the bid wasn't competitive, according to Juan C. Rodriguez of the Miami Sun-Sentinel. The Marlins are no longer in the mix for Guerrero but still have interest in fellow Cuban Jose Dariel Abreu. However, the slugging first baseman would require an even larger commitment than Guerrero. Abreu is said to be looking for a larger guarantee than Yasiel Puig's seven-year, $42MM commitment from the Dodgers.
  • The Twins have signed 16-year-old Dominican prospect Alexander Vargas, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America.  Terms of the deal are not known for the right-hander, who stands at 6-foot-3 and boasts a fastball in the low 90s, a curveball, and a changeup.  In addition to the La Academia product, Minnesota has also inked Dominican outfielder/first baseman Lewin Diaz for $1.4MM and Dominican third baseman Roni Tapia for $550K during this signing period.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

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