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Archives for September 2013

AL Central Links: Santana, Peralta, Twins

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The latest out of the AL Central to kick off your Wednesday morning…

  • Right-hander Ervin Santana offered praise for the Royals organization, its training staff and his teammates when asked by Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star if he'd be open to returning to the team next season. Santana told Dutton that his main focus is finishing the season strong, however. General manager Dayton Moore said the Royals "certainly like" Santana and will make an effort to bring him back for 2014.
  • Jhonny Peralta has been told by Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski that he will not be the team's starting shortstop if he returns to the team for the postseason following his 50-game suspension, writes James Schmehl of MLive.com. If the Tigers don't bring Peralta back, they will have to make a move to remove him from the roster when his suspension is up, which likely would mean designating Peralta for assignment, Schmehl adds.
  • MLB.com's Jason Beck spoke with Tigers lefty Darin Downs, who told Beck that he was in "offseason mode" when he got a surprise call from the team and was called up to the Majors. Downs had already gone home to Florida for the winter to be with his family and hadn't thrown for a week. Beck details how rare a move like this is for the Tigers in his piece.
  • "I don't know that," Twins GM Terry Ryan told reporters, including Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, when asked who will replace Justin Morneau in 2014. "We're still looking at it, seeing how we're going to respond, seeing how our guys do." Walters adds that there's still a chance Morneau could re-sign in Minnesota.

Yankees Acquire Brendan Ryan

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The Yankees have acquired shortstop Brendan Ryan from the Mariners in exchange for a player to be named later, according to a press release from Seattle.  Of course, Ryan will not be eligible for postseason play as he was dealt after the August 31st deadline.

Ryan, 31, appeared in 87 games for the Mariners this season and hit just .192/.254/.265 with three homers.  However, the veteran offers solid defense at shortstop, as evidenced by his career 11.7 UZR/150 at the positon.  Ryan can help the Yankees fill the gap while Derek Jeter remains sidelined by offering a better defensive alternative to Eduardo Nunez.

Ryan cleared waivers in mid-August, clearing the way for Jack Zduriencik & Co. to trade him to any club, but nothing materialized over the next couple of weeks.  The light-hitting infielder wasn't moved last month, but the M's did make a trade when they moved Mike Morse to the Orioles for outfield prospect Xavier Avery. 

Quick Hits: Rivera, Jimenez, Hudson, Pirates

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While there has been a great deal of attention paid to Mariano Rivera's farewell tour, he's not the only MLB vet who could call it quits after this season, writes MLB.com's Doug Miller.  The Indians' Jason Giambi and the Rockies' Todd Helton seem likely to call it a career and Yankees hurler Andy Pettitte could retire – again.  Here's tonight's look around the Majors..

  • Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus breaks down the changes in Ubaldo Jimenez's mechanics that have led to a resurgence since his first three starts of the season (subscription required). Two of the Indians' hurler's last three starts have been 10-strikeout, zero-walk outings, and he's posted a 2.82 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 since April 29 (24 starts). It makes sense for Jimenez to void his option and seek a multi-year deal, in Lindbergh's mind, though he carries significant risk as his mechanics are still flawed.
  • The Diamondbacks face an interesting situation with Daniel Hudson this offseason, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Hudson, who underwent his second Tommy John surgery this year and hasn't pitched since early 2012, is eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason. Hudson says he "would be open to taking about pretty much anything (contract-wise) if it meant staying [in Arizona]." Hudson feels that he may have to come back as a reliever and is open to that role.
  • The Pirates' 2007 hires of club president Frank Coonelly and General Manager Neal Huntington are paying off in a big way, writes MLB.com's Tom Singer.  

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

East Notes: Ellsbury, Red Sox, Tejada, Mets, Yankees

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Earlier today, Tim Dierkes released his list of the top 34 free agent starting pitchers for this offseason.  Yankees hurler Hiroki Kuroda comes in at No. 4 on the list, despite his age (39 in February) and a small streak of bad starts in August.  In total, it has been another strong year for the veteran, who owns a 2.99 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9.  Here's more out of the AL and NL East..

  • Red Sox outfielder and free-agent-to-be Jacoby Ellsbury didn't exacerbate his foot fracture by playing last week, a baseball source told Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald.  Ellsbury will be in a walking boot for another few days and will rejoin the Red Sox on Friday at Fenway Park.  He'll also be reexamined by doctors before he resumes physical activity.
  • It seems likely that the Mets will explore external shortstop options as an alternative to Ruben Tejada and he could even be traded this winter, writes Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.  Tejeada will be first-time arbitration eligible with a salary less than $1MM, so he won't be cost prohibitive as a backup middle infielder if a more accomplished shortstop is brought in.
  • The Yankees' addition of Mike Zagurski signals concern over Boone Logan's continued elbow troubles, writes Andy McCullough of the Star Ledger.  

Yankees Rumors: Hughes, Jeter, Cano, Sabathia

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There was talk earlier this year of the Yankees giving Phil Hughes a qualifying offer at the end of the season in order to either retain him or secure a draft pick in the event that he signed elsewhere.  However, that ship has pretty much sailed at this point.  "They may make a qualifying offer. And I may run for president," a rival GM told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com last week.  Here's more out of the Bronx..

  • Many in baseball speculated that Derek Jeter would decline his $9.5MM option for 2014 and force the Yankees to give him a new deal, but a friend of the shortstop told Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News that he thinks he'll exercise the option and return with a sense of purpose. Feinsand notes that Jeter probably wouldn't have the public on his side as he did three years ago and, more importantly, no one is clamoring to give a 39-year-old shortstop more than $9.5MM.
  • The Yankees want Robinson Cano back in pinstripes next season, but team president Randy Levine made it clear there's a limit as to how far they'll go.  “[Cano] is a great player,” Levine told Bloomberg Television, according to Feinsand. “We will sit down and talk to him. Hopefully he’s a Yankee. Nobody is a re-sign at all costs, but we want him back and we feel good about negotiating something with him. But nobody is a re-sign at any cost.”
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Yankees can ill-afford to see CC Sabathia's regression to No. 4 starter come when he has at least three years and $76MM on his contract. The Yankees anticipated such an occurence might happen toward the end of his New York tenure but thought they'd have capable replacements in Michael Pineda, Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos, but none have panned out. Their dearth of pitching talent clouds their goal of staying under the $189MM luxury tax threshhold, Sherman adds.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Red Sox Designate Jose De La Torre For Assignment

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The Red Sox have designated Jose De La Torre for assignment, according to Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald (on Twitter).  The move will allow Boston to reinstate Clay Buchholz to the club's 40-man roster.

De La Torre, 28 in October, allowed eight runs in seven relief appearances for the Red Sox this season.  The right-hander fared much better in Triple-A Pawtucket, posting a 2.75 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 in 34 relief outings.  De La Torre has had similarly strong numbers – 2.58 ERA with 10 K/9 and 4 BB/9 -across parts of four Triple-A seasons with the Indians and Red Sox's affiliates.

To keep track of De La Torre's status and others in DFA limbo, check out the MLBTR DFA Tracker.

Top 34 Free Agent Starting Pitchers

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Sometimes, there's just not a $100MM free agent pitcher out there.  C.J. Wilson benefited from a weak free agent starting pitching class after the 2011 season, nabbing $77.5MM to lead the group.  In the upcoming offseason, the top end of the starting pitcher segment is similarly uninspiring.  Here are my early rankings, which are subject to change.  I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comment section or on Twitter.

  1. Matt Garza – In terms of pure free agent starters, I think Garza will receive the largest contract this offseason.  He's ineligible to receive a qualifying offer because he was traded midseason, which boosts his value.  He may have quieted health concerns by making all of his starts since his May 21st big league season debut and averaging nearly seven innings per start. 
  2. Masahiro Tanaka – Tanaka, a righty with the Rakuten Golden Eagles, is not technically a free agent but belongs here since he can be obtained by bidding the most (assuming he is posted).  I don't want to give too much credit to the unknown, but there are some who would take Tanaka over Garza, especially since Tanaka will pitch next year at age 25.
  3. Ervin Santana – A quality arm whose stock will be damaged by a qualifying offer, if he turns one down and reaches the open market.
  4. Hiroki Kuroda – He'll play next season at age 39, but in feedback on early drafts of this list, most thought he should be this high.
  5. A.J. Burnett – Burnett said in March he wouldn't want to play anywhere but Pittsburgh, and I imagine the team's success this year only solidifies that stance.
  6. Tim Lincecum – I had Lincecum ranked better in earlier versions of the list, as a case can be made he's at least equal to Santana, if you're willing to look past ERA.  Like Santana, a qualifying offer could suppress his market.
  7. Ricky Nolasco – I'd want to pay Nolasco like a 4.00 ERA guy, despite a 2.07 mark since joining the Dodgers in a July 6th trade.  He doesn't have to worry about a qualifying offer, and could sign a new deal with the Dodgers during the exclusive signing period.
  8. Bronson Arroyo – He's not flashy, and he'll pitch at 37 next year, but he supplies innings and avoids the free pass.  Arroyo spoke recently about wanting a multiyear deal, but turning down a qualifying offer from the Reds could put him in a bind on the market.  I don't expect the Reds to chance it.
  9. Dan Haren – Haren will likely avoid a qualifying offer from the Nationals, as they won't want to risk giving him a raise on this year's $13MM.  Despite a 5.23 ERA, Haren's K/BB ratio remains sparkling, and I still think there's hope for a sub-4.00 ERA given a few more groundballs and BABIP and HR/flyball swinging back his way.
  10. Scott Feldman – Ineligible for a qualifying offer, Feldman is in line for a multiyear deal.  He's re-established himself as a solid mid-rotation arm, and he'll pitch at 31 next year.
  11. Paul Maholm – Maholm started his season with 20 1/3 scoreless innings, after which he's posted a 5.09 ERA in 120 1/3 frames.  He also missed a month with a wrist contusion, and may have to settle for another one-year deal.
  12. Roberto Hernandez – I like Hernandez more than most.  Though he hasn't done it since 2010, I see the skills of a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher.  His combination of a decent strikeout rate and big-time groundball rate is rare, but among the flyballs he has allowed, a whopping fifth of them have left the yard.
  13. Scott Kazmir – There's a lot to like about Kazmir, who I originally had inside my top ten.  He's still young, he's got strikeout stuff from the left side, and he's sporting the lowest walk rate of his career.  But he should finish the season with around 160 innings, a total he last reached in 2007.  The Indians signed Kazmir to a minor league deal in December; MLBTR's Steve Adams covered his rise and fall in a June post.  I think he could find a multiyear deal.
  14. Ubaldo Jimenez – He has the second-best strikeout rate in this free agent class, behind Burnett.  If he can push his walk rate back under four per nine innings, as it was with the Rockies, he'd be close to the front-rotation hurler the Indians thought they acquired at the 2011 trade deadline.  Some feel he's among the ten best in this free agent class, and he will be able to score a multiyear deal.
  15. Bartolo Colon – I reluctantly pushed Colon up to 15th, as over 300 innings of 3.22 ball since 2012 can't be ignored.  Colon's career, elbow, and shoulder were resurrected in an April 2010 stem cell procedure, and he was later suspended 50 games for a positive PED test in August of last year in an apparently unrelated incident.  He'll pitch most of next season at 41, and is succeeding with a subpar strikeout rate.
  16. Josh Johnson – Johnson's final start of the year came on August 6th in Seattle, and at least that one outing was reflective of what we used to say about him: he pitches well when he's on the field.  His final injury was a strained forearm that will not require surgery, but unlike years past, Johnson did not pitch well while on the field this year, with a 6.20 ERA in 16 starts.  His downfall was a fluke in theory, in that his strikeout and walk rates were solid while his BABIP and HR/flyball went through the roof.  A qualifying offer is unlikely — Johnson would probably accept, and that would not be a good deal for the Blue Jays. 
  17. Phil Hughes – Hughes was demoted to the Yankees' bullpen earlier this month.  He had a respectable 2.85 K/BB ratio in 26 starts, but the extreme flyballer also allowed 23 home runs.  There's a 4.00 ERA pitcher in there somewhere, especially away from Yankee Stadium, where he allowed 17 of those longballs.  Hughes won't turn 28 until June next year, and as the youngest free agent starter, the former phenom should be a popular one-year deal reclamation project target.
  18. Jason Vargas
  19. Chris Capuano
  20. Roy Halladay - The former ace had labrum and rotator cuff surgery in May, returning to make a few starts this month.
  21. Tim Hudson - Hudson was pitching well before his season ended in July with an ankle fracture.
  22. Jason Hammel
  23. Wandy Rodriguez
  24. Andy Pettitte
  25. Joe Saunders
  26. Jake Westbrook
  27. Ryan Vogelsong (club option)
  28. Edinson Volquez
  29. Chad Gaudin - Gaudin has been quietly solid in a dozen starts for the Giants, with a 3.53 ERA.
  30. Mike Pelfrey
  31. Shaun Marcum
  32. Scott Baker
  33. Colby Lewis
  34. Randy Messenger - The 32-year-old is a sleeper MLB deal candidate this offseason, with a 2.83 ERA as a starter for the Hanshin Tigers from 2011-13.

Jon Lester, Jorge De La Rosa, and James Shields were excluded from this list, under the expectation their club options will be exercised.

Yankees To Sign Mike Zagurski

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The Yankees are set to add Mike Zagurski, according to Andy McCullough of the Star Ledger (on Twitter).  The lefty reliever opted out of his deal with the Athletics last week.

Zagurski, 30, signed a minor league deal with the Bombers in June but opted out of his deal in mid-August and subsequently signed with Oakland.  In his brief stint with Triple-A Sacramento, Zagurski gave up four earned and struck out eight batters over six innings.  In 53 1/3 total Triple-A innings on the season, Zagurski has a 3.04 ERA with an impressive 14.0 K/9 against 4.0 BB/9. 

Free Agent Profile: Omar Infante

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When you think of the ten best second basemen in the game, does the name Omar Infante spring to mind as a contender?  It should.  Infante, 32 in December, ranks eighth in FanGraphs wins above replacement by a second baseman for 2011-13.  This year, despite fewer games played than anyone ranked above him, Infante holds the seventh spot.  Among the six second basemen ranked above Infante in WAR this year, the only other free agent is Robinson Cano, who will be a consideration only for a select few ultra-rich large market teams.  If you're a GM looking to add a quality veteran free agent to solidify second base and you'd prefer not to dole out a nine-figure contract, Infante is your man.   

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Strengths/Pros

Infante doesn't strike out much, and that generally leads to solid batting averages.  He's had several seasons above .300, including this one, and hasn't hit below .271 since 2005.  

Defensively, UZR/150 considers Infante a plus.  Defensive runs saved from The Fielding Bible suggest he's a bit above-average with the glove as well.

Infante also offers versatility, as he can play third base, shortstop, and the outfield in a pinch.

Weaknesses/Cons

When he hits .300 or better, Infante's on-base percentage will be pretty good, as it is this year at .348.  However, since he generally only draws a walk in about 4% of his plate appearances these days, he's not going to be an OBP threat if he settles back into a batting average in the .270s.  Tigers manager Jim Leyland deserves credit for not confusing the ability to make contact with the ability to get on base, as he's batted Infante in the bottom third of the order more than 80% of the time this year.

Infante rates well among second basemen in slugging percentage, but that gives credit to his many singles, making it a poor choice to measure his power among his peers.  Isolated power puts him 15th among 25 second base qualifiers since 2012, in a similar range as Neil Walker and Dustin Pedroia.  Infante has a few double-digit home run seasons on his resume, but he's not a middle of the order hitter.

It would be unfair to suggest durability is a concern with Infante, who played in almost 150 games in each of the 2011 and '12 seasons.  However, a sprained ankle suffered in July this year kept Infante out for over a month, with a few setbacks during the recovery process.

Infante's stock would be hurt significantly if he receives and turns down a qualifying offer from the Tigers, which FanGraphs' Dave Cameron recommends the team makes.  Losing a potential first-round draft pick to sign Infante would severely limit his appeal, and perhaps he would be compelled to become the first player to accept a qualifying offer.  In that case Infante would earn more in 2014 than he did in the previous four years combined, but would hit the open market again after the season.

Personal

Infante, his wife Yohanna, and their four-year-old son Yomar reside in Lecheria, Venezuela during the offseason.  Omar and Yohanna have been married for over ten years.  From what we've heard, Infante is beloved by other players and coaches and is a hard worker.  He is a family man and a private person.

Market

One feasible scenario is the Tigers and Infante agreeing to a new deal before qualifying offers are due in November, or at least before the open signing period.  My guess is that the Tigers ultimately would not make Infante a qualifying offer — $14MM might be twice the average annual value Infante would get on the open market.  The Tigers don't have to decide now, and are probably keeping an open mind.  Detroit should have strong interest in retaining him, regardless.  The Yankees could be a fit for Infante if Cano signs elsewhere, while the Cubs, Orioles, Dodgers, and Royals could make sense as well.  Free agent competition is light outside of Cano, as Mark Ellis, Kelly Johnson, and Brian Roberts are the top names.  Any team that misses out on Cano could conceivably bid for Infante, should he reach the open market.

Expected Contract

Infante was represented by Alan Nero of Octagon for most of his career, according to MLB.com's Jason Beck, but Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports recently revealed the infielder switched to Gene Mato this year.  Two years ago, Infante inked a two-year, $8MM extension with the Marlins in the final days of the 2011 season.  He's improved his stock drastically since then, and this offseason probably represents his one shot at a big contract.

The most relevant contract for Infante might be Marco Scutaro's three-year, $20MM deal with the Giants signed in December last year.  However, Scutaro's deal covers his age 37-39 seasons, while a three-year deal for Infante would cover his age 32-34 campaigns.  Cameron referenced Martin Prado's four-year, $40MM deal as a potential comparable.  That contract was not signed on the open market, and still included $33MM covering Prado's first three free agent years.  While there is a sabermetric case for Infante receiving a bit more than $33MM over three years, I consider that his ceiling on the open market, as Prado is younger and a better hitter (and, incidentally, the godfather to Infante's son).  My guess is that Mato will set his sights on four guaranteed years at the outset, and ultimately I peg Infante at a three-year, $25MM deal.

It should be noted that my prediction includes the assumption that Infante does not reach the open market having turned down a qualifying offer.  If he receives and rejects a qualifying offer and reaches the open market, I would knock my ceiling down to Scutaro's contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL East Notes: Braves, Tejada, Parnell, Galvis

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Jordan Schafer, Anthony Varvaro and David Carpenter exemplify the Braves' knack for getting the most out of the "free talent" market (players claimed off waivers or signed as minor league free agents), writes ESPN's Keith Law in his latest Insider piece. Law writes that the Braves have succeeded with tight payrolls in recent years by excelling in this area, and he also looks at the next wave of "free-talent" players on the horizon for the Braves. Here's more out of the NL East…

  • Ruben Tejada is expected to join the Mets today as a September callup, which will leave him one day shy of accumulating his third full year of MLB service time, writes ESPN New York's Adam Rubin. Rubin reported yesterday that the Mets would likely delay Tejada's promotion for that purpose, as it will keep Tejada from reaching free agency for an additional year.
  • Mets closer Bobby Parnell will undergo surgery to repair the herniated disk in his neck, manager Terry Collins told reporters, including Brian Lewis of the New York Post. Collins said that Parnell "should" be ready for Spring Training but would make no promises on that front. I'd imagine that any uncertainty surrounding Parnell would only further what should be an interesting offseason for the Mets on the bullpen front, with so many free agents in their 2013 relief corps.
  • The presence of Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley through at least the 2014 season (and likely the 2015 campaign due to Rollins' easily attainable vesting option) makes a utility role the most realistic option for Freddy Galvis if he's to remain with the Phillies long-term, writes Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News. Interim manager Ryne Sandberg feels that Galvis fits the mold of a strong bench player due to his defensive capabilities and "consistent progress and work with his batting."

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