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2014 Amateur Draft

Draft Notes: Aiken, Movers, Twins, D’Backs, Debates

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The MLB amateur draft is set to begin tomorrow, meaning that all the guesswork and speculation will soon be over … until the players selected officially join the big league prospect ranks, at least. If you are interested in learning how teams get to where they are at this point, making final determinations on their draft board, be sure to check out this article via Tony Blengino of Fangraphs. And if you’re wondering how your team has fared in recent years, be sure to check out this piece from Ben Lindbergh on FOX Sports.

Here’s the latest on the draft …

  • High school lefty Brady Aiken lands atop both the final mock and overall draft prospect ranking of ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider links). Law says that Aiken is not only the best talent available, but also has a “clean record of light usage.” It is interesting to note the similarities to this point in their careers between Aiken and current Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, as the Baseball Draft Report has observed. Back in 2006, Baseball America said that the tall, athletic Kershaw had increased his stock to near the top of the draft by moving his fastball up into the low-to-mid 90s and improving his curve ball and overall command. BA said much the same of Aiken this year, citing his own athleticism, frame, recent velocity increase, power curve, and outstanding command.
  • Among the big movers in Law’s rankings include high school righty Luis Ortiz, who moves to the tenth slot after returning strong from an early-season forearm strain, and prep lefty Justus Sheffield, who moved from 34 up to 21. Headed in the other direction is collegiate outfielder Bradley Zimmer, who Law drops from fifth overall to the twelfth slot.
  • While the bonus slot system has changed the draft dynamic, pre-draft chatter with player advisers remains a key aspect of the process. Twins assistant GM Rob Antony gave an interesting perspective on those negotiations in an interview with Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. This year, Antony says, Minnesota is focused primarily on determining signability not to to get a bargain, but to ensure it can sign the best player left on the board with the fifth overall pick. He explained: “We don’t say, ’We’ll give you this, will you take it?’ We just say, ’What are you looking for? We’re picking at five. You know what our slot number is. Is he signable?'”
  • This is a key draft for the Diamondbacks , who hold five of the first 89 choices and are in need of replenishing a system that has sent out some talent in recent years, writes Zach Buchanan of AZCentral.com. Then, there is the fact that the big league club has struggled and is still in the early stages of a front office shake-up. New chief baseball officer Tony LaRussa says he is mostly observing, learning, and submitting his observations to the team’s “experts.” In terms of the substance of the draft, GM Kevin Towers indicated that he thinks the team can add arms later in a draft that is said to be full of them. “I’ve always felt in all drafts … that your good hitters are going to go off the board rather quickly, whether it be high school or college,” he said. “If you’re looking for that outfield bat or that premier-type catcher, you’re going to have to take them early.”
  • There are three key debates entering the draft, writes ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden (Insider piece). According to Bowden, the top position player comes down to high schoolers Alex Jackson and Nick Gordon; the third-best pitcher is arguably not Tyler Kolek, but Touki Toussaint (though he prefers the former); and the best corner outfield bat could be either Kyle Schwarber or Michael Conforto.

AL West Notes: Astros Draft, Appel, Harrison, Angels

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While GM Jeff Luhnow and scouting director Mike Elias recognize how much three straight No. 1 overall picks have helped the Astros organization, the duo said in a press conference yesterday (video link) that they’re hopeful they won’t be in that spot again in 2015. Elias discussed the club’s approach to picking first overall: “We enter the year with a pool of players who we deem to be candidates for the pick. It’s usually about seven players long, the list. And we try to hang with those players as long as we can, reasonably, into the spring. We want to get as much info on these guys as possible so that we’re not blindsided if one of them storms up the list at the end, or if one of them might fall off the list for whatever reason.” Luhnow adds that while the first-round picks add huge value, “you really make your money on the draft in the later rounds.”

Here’s more out of the AL West …

  • While it is far too soon to judge last year’s draft results, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper explains why the Astros’ Mark Appel’s early-career struggles could actually be cause for concern about his true ceiling. Appel, a college hurler taken first overall last year by Houston, has been knocked around in the low minors — putting him in the company of high-end busts. College arms that have gone on to dominate at the big league level, says Cooper, have tended to overpower lower-level competition easily with their combination of stuff and polish. What is most troubling, Cooper says, is that those stats have coincided with scouting reports that paint Appel as more of a mid-rotation arm.
  • Rangers pitcher Matt Harrison underwent disc fusion surgery today, reports Anthony Andro of FOX Sports Southwest (via Twitter). That means, of course, that he will not attempt to rehab and pitch through his back issues. While Harrison sounds determined to have a go at a comeback, so long as it is a viable possibility, success seems far from given at this point.
  • Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes that while the Angels have delayed a tough decision by optioning Jarrett Grube to make room for the returning Josh Hamilton, something has to give soon. By this weekend, the team will need another pitcher, and either C.J. Cron or Grant Green — both of whom have hit very well — is likely to be optioned. Fletcher calls Raul Ibanez the elephant in the room, noting that the veteran DH’s numbers haven’t improved since he’s been platooned. Ibanez’s roster spot was said to be secure as recently as May 19, though he’s batted just .143/.226/.286 since that time and is hitting .147/.259/.272 overall.

Jeff Todd contributed to this post.

Draft Links: Padres, Ryan, Phillies, Jays

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The 2014 amateur draft is only three days away, so here’s the first batch of what will surely be a ton of draft-related items this week…

  • The Padres won’t draft Jeff Hoffman or Erick Fedde with the 13th overall pick, sources tell Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune.  Both college right-handers recently underwent Tommy John surgery and though the team “briefly kicked the idea around” of taking one of the highly-touted pitchers in hopes of a full recovery, the risk seemed too high at that point in the first round.  “We want to take someone who is healthy. There are too many good options on the board,” assistant GM Chad MacDonald said.
  • The Twins are likely to again focus on pitching in this draft, general manager Terry Ryan tells Jim Crikket of the Knuckleballs blog.  “We’ll draft a lot of pitching just because of the attrition. We need to make sure we have numbers and competition,” Ryan said.  “Actually the depth and some of the talent in our organization is starting to lean toward pitching….But we won’t have enough, so we’ll take a bunch more.”  This doesn’t necessarily mean that Minnesota will draft a pitcher with the fifth overall pick, as Ryan says the team is just focused on drafting the best possible player.  I’d recommend reading the entire interview, as Ryan also touches on such topics as his health and the Twins’ performance this season.
  • The Phillies could be altering their draft strategy of taking good athletes with high ceilings by instead opting for more proven players who are closer to making the majors, CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury writes as part of an interview with Phillies scouting director Marti Wolever.
  • Recent comments from Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos hint that his team could also be taking a somewhat more cautious approach to their draft process, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reports.  “I’d say a big part of refining our process is maybe we’re starting to examine the level of risk we’re willing to take….It doesn’t mean we’ll be risk-averse, but maybe not take the same level of risk,” Anthopoulos told Sportsnet Magazine.  “We’re just trying to balance it out a little bit more as we’re going through it. That’s not to say we’re not looking for talent, upside, all that kind of stuff. We’re trying to balance it.”

Latest On Jeff Samardzija

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12:56pm: A baseball source differs from the report referenced below, telling MLBTR there is no truth to the assertion that the Cubs have inquired about receiving a competitive balance draft pick as part of a Samardzija deal.

10:57am: The Cubs have asked about acquiring a competitive balance-round draft pick and the associated bonus slot money as part of their desired return for Jeff Samardzija, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports.  This would give Chicago an extra pick either between 35th-41st overall (Round A of the competitive balance picks) or 69th-74th overall (Round B) in this year’s amateur draft, should a trade be completed between now and Thursday.

Here’s a refresher on the order of the competitive balance round, which awards an extra pick to teams that play within the 10 smallest markets and/or teams with the 10 lowest revenues.  Unlike other draft selections, competitive balance picks can be traded; just yesterday, the Marlins dealt the 39th overall pick to the Pirates in exchange for reliever Bryan Morris.

Passan cites the Rockies (picking at No. 35) as the best fit for Samardzija among the Round A teams with picks to trade, given Colorado’s long-standing need for starting pitching.  The draft pick would just be part of a Samardzija trade package, of course, and I would guess the Cubs would also ask for Rockies pitching prospects Jonathan Gray or Eddie Butler in exchange for their ace.  The Rox could possibly upgrade their rotation simply by promoting one of those two young arms, however, rather than deal assets for a veteran.

It seems unlikely that the Cubs would move Samardzija between now and Thursday’s draft, though they could still target a competitive balance pick in the 2015 draft.  The competitive balance lottery for next year’s draft will take place in roughly six weeks’ times, and an extra pick could be a valuable trade chip for any contending teams who win those additional selections.

Draft Notes: Finnegan, Indians, Red Sox

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With the recent rash of Tommy John surgeries in baseball, general managers are scared of taking pitchers at the top of the draft and giving them lucrative contracts, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today. “There’s more awareness right now with the health of pitchers than I’ve ever seen,” one NL exec said. “It brings so much apprehension and anxiety right now.  I don’t think we’ve ever been so sensitive to what’s going on because of all of the pitching injuries.  Anyone with health issues, they’re going to fall.  You going to spend $6MM to $7MM on a pitcher who’s headed for Tommy John surgery?”  This is why some baseball executives believe collegiate pitchers Jeff Hoffman (East Carolina) and Erick Fedde (UNLV) could fall out of the top ten.

Here are more draft notes from around MLB:

  • This year’s draft has been said to be deep in arms, both at the collegiate and high school levels. As teams debate whether to take more polished products or roll the dice on prep upside, an interesting study from J.J. Cooper of Baseball America is worth considering. Cooper finds pitchers who attended college were significantly more likely to undergo Tommy John surgery than were those who went straight from high school to the professional ranks. Those findings could have implications both for how teams sort their draft boards and for the decision-making process of drafted players.
  • TCU left-hander Brandon Finnegan could become a top-ten pick because of his increased velocity, tweets CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman.
  • The Indians, armed with the 21st, 31st, and 38th overall choices and a $8.23MM overall pool (eighth-highest in the league) are hoping to take advantage of the deep slate of prospects, report MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian and Alec Shirkey. “You have more money than 22 other clubs,” explained Brad Grant, the club’s director of amateur scouting. “So I have a lot more agent calls this year than I had in the past because we have the flexibility to do a lot of different things.“
  • The Red Sox don’t own a top-ten pick in this year’s draft, but they’ve been able to land high-end talent before by taking chances on guys with injuries, writes Tim Britton of the Providence Journal. Boston snagged Jackie Bradley, Jr. with the 40th overall pick in 2011, an ultra-talented outfielder who had a subpar junior season that included a wrist injury. The Red Sox will pick 26th and 33rd on Thursday.
  • Because baseball players take so much longer to develop than their counterparts in other sports, the MLB draft is a particularly difficult feat.  However, that doesn’t stop teams from kicking themselves after making franchise-altering mistakes, according to Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal.  MacPherson runs down some of the most regrettable choices in modern draft history, from the Padres taking Matt Bush in 2004 over Justin Verlander to 24 teams passing on Mike Trout before he fell to the Angels in 2009.

Jeff Todd and Edward Creech contributed to this post.

White Sox Notes: Draft, Signability

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The White Sox head into next week’s draft with the No. 3 overall pick and a bonus pool of around $9.5MM. Here’s a look at what they might do, along with a glance ahead at the trade deadline, which the White Sox could conceivably approach as a surprisingly competitive team.

  • Scouting director Doug Laumann says the White Sox will probably take a pitcher with the third overall pick, tweets Fred Mitchell of the Chicago Tribune.
  • MLB.com’s Scott Merkin goes a bit further, saying that the White Sox’ choice at No. 3 will come down to California high schooler Brady Aiken, NC State lefty Carlos Rodon, Texas high schooler Tyler Kolek or LSU righty Aaron Nola. (Those four are widely considered the top four pitchers in the draft.) It’s very likely that at least one and perhaps two of those players will be gone by the time the White Sox pick, so the White Sox’ selection will likely depend on who’s still available.
  • The White Sox will take signability into account with their first-round pick, but they don’t expect it to be a decisive factor, Merkin writes. “Is it a consideration? Sure. We wouldn’t be doing our job if we didn’t explore signability both above our number as well as below our number,” says GM Rick Hahn. “But ultimately, I think it will come down to taking the player that we feel fits the best.”
  • At 29-29, the White Sox have played surprisingly well so far. But they don’t plan on making moves that would hamper their goals of winning in the long term, Merkin writes. “[O]pportunities to win are sacred. If we are in a position where we feel we have a real chance to win, we will address whatever needs we feel exist at that time,” says Hahn. “At the same time, we are not going to do anything that’s going to compromise our longer term goals … of putting us in a position where we can win on an annual basis.” Hahn emphasizes that the White Sox will not jeopardize their future for one playoff run.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Astros Finalizing Draft Strategy

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The Astros’ draft strategy is taking shape, according to a report from Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. Houston is expected to finalize its board and approach in a series of early-week front office sessions. Drellich’s piece is full of interesting information, quotes, and analysis, and is well worth a full read.

With the first overall choice, the Astros have narrowed their options to six players, all of whom will be familiar to those who have followed the recent prognostications of observers. The list includes two collegiate hurlers (Carlos Rodon and Aaron Nola), two prep arms (Tyler Kolek and Brady Aiken), and two high school position players (Alex Jackson and Nick Gordon).

While that grouping is not surprising, Drellich writes that the Astros could attempt to get an agreement from a player to a below-slot bonus with the first overall selection. Should that occur, Houston could aim to put more of its $13.36MM total pool into hard-to-sign later choices. The club also possesses the 37th and 42nd overall choices.

That strategy, of course, sounds similar to what the ’Stros did in 2012, when they took Carlos Correa first overall (over Byron Buxton) and later drafted and inked players like Lance McCullers Jr. and Rio Ruiz. The gambit “worked perfectly a couple years ago,” said amateur scouting director Mike Elias.

It is not yet clear how Houston will proceed this time around. Elias says that this year’s deep class — unlike last year’s, which lacked “high school players that were first-round talents that might fall” — could allow such an approach. “We’re going to look at how to extract the most value from our draft board and from this draft,” he said. “And if we feel there is a lack of separation between two of the options and perhaps we feel we may be able to sign one of those options for less money to get some extra major league prospects because of it that we wouldn’t otherwise, we’re going to consider that.”

Of course, the final call will go to GM Jeff Luhnow. He acknowledged that, in theory, a lack of consensus on the top choice could be beneficial, at least “theoretically, if you were indifferent between two players, three players.” But the head baseball man also explained that the 2012 haul was driven by the fact that the team viewed Correa as the best player available, while industry consensus saw him as the fifth or sixth-best option. With this year’s top pick, Luhnow said that he intends to “take who we believe is the best player in the draft and then let the chips fall where they may.”

Draft Notes: Hoffman, Angels, Indians

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East Carolina pitcher Jeff Hoffman, who was universally projected to be a top-of-the-first-round pick before an elbow injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery, isn’t going to enjoy following the first round of the draft, Tyler Kepner of the New York Times reports. “The competitor in me makes it hard for me to see, maybe, a bunch of guys get picked ahead of me — guys that I know aren’t better than me, some guys out of high school that don’t really understand the game of baseball yet,” says Hoffman. Nonetheless, he remains confident in his ability, and he hasn’t changed his goal of helping a big-league team within two years. “[E]verything happens for a reason, and whatever team takes the so-called risk and drafts me is going to get the best player in the draft.” Hoffman remains a likely first-round pick. Here are more notes on the draft.

  • The best first-round draft pick in Angels history, unsurprisingly, is that of Mike Trout in 2009, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez writes. That’s the case even though the Angels have also drafted Jered Weaver, Troy Glaus and Darin Erstad in Round 1. Gonzalez also names the Angels’ best picks from every other round through Round 15. Those include John Lackey in the second round in 1999, and Tim Salmon in the third round in 1989.
  • Having four picks on the first day of the draft (Nos. 21, 31, 38 and 61) gives the Indians an edge this season, Indians amateur scouting director Brad Grant says on a video posted by Dan Labbe of the Northeast Ohio Media Group. Grant says that this year’s draft class is heavy on depth, with many similar players falling between the end of the first round through the second round. After sacrificing picks for Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn in the 2012-2013 offseason, the Indians selected Clint Frazier at No. 5 overall last year and then didn’t pick again until No. 79 overall. Grant says there were many players the Indians only watched once, proceeding on the assumption that they wouldn’t get to draft them. With so many extra picks this year, the Indians are spending more resources scouting players who might go in the first few rounds.

Draft Notes: Astros, Nola, White Sox, Orioles

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As we approach the draft next week, MLB.com’s draft database now features profiles of 200 prospects. Here are a few notes on the draft.

  • The Astros take high school pitcher Brady Aiken with the top pick in Jonathan Mayo’s latest mock draft for MLB.com. High school C/OF Alex Jackson heads to the Marlins at No. 2 and NC State lefty Carlos Rodon goes to the White Sox at No. 3 in what’s becoming a fairly standard (but by no means unanimous) projection for the top of the draft.
  • The White Sox take high school pitcher Tyler Kolek in John Manuel’s new mock for Baseball America, leaving Rodon to fall to the Cubs at No. 4.
  • LSU righty Aaron Nola heads to the Cubs in Kiley McDaniel’s mock for Scout.com, with Jackson dropping all the way to the Mariners at No. 6. McDaniel also writes that the Astros aren’t yet sure who they’ll take at No. 1, although he, like most other experts, projects they’ll take Aiken.
  • The White Sox will take the best player available at No. 3 no matter who his agent is or whether he’s a high school or college player, MLB.com’s Scott Merkin writes (all Twitter links). That player will likely be a pitcher, Merkin reports.
  • One team that won’t have any tough decisions in the first round is the Orioles, as MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski notes. The Orioles gave up their first three picks in the draft so that they could acquire Ubaldo Jimenez, Bud Norris and Nelson Cruz, and now their first overall pick doesn’t come until the third round. That means the Orioles have a bonus pool of just $2.2MM, so their flexibility will be limited.
  • The Nationals, who pick at No. 18,have been connected to UNLV pitcher Erick Fedde, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post tweets. Fedde was once projected as a top-ten pick, but he recently had Tommy John surgery.

Draft Links: Astros, Gordon, Howard, Top 5

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Brady Aiken and Carlos Rodon have been mentioned the most frequently as potential options for the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft, but CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman expands on a rumor that has been picking up steam that could have the Astros cutting a deal with high school shortstop Nick Gordon (brother of Dee Gordon and son of Tom Gordon) in order to spend more heavily elsewhere. Heyman notes that it could very well be just a rumor, but it’s “stirring intrigue in baseball circles.” It wouldn’t be the first time that Houston cut a deal at 1-1, as just two years ago they elected to select Carlos Correa in order to later sign Lance McCullers Jr. and Rio Ruiz to over-slot deals. One agent tells Heyman that he thinks Houston will look to cut a deal, with a second agent telling him the Astros are “all about the deal” and rival executives expressing that they simply can’t even guess what the Astros and GM Jeff Luhnow will do.

Here are several more draft-related links with the draft less than one week away…

  • ESPN’s Keith Law tweets that he didn’t buy the Gordon/Astros rumor when he first heard it, and he’s still not a believer.
  • Scout.com’s Kiley McDaniel tweets that the Gordon rumor is still alive and adds another to the mix, noting that the Blue Jays could reach and select Virginia righty Nick Howard as high as No. 11, while several other teams in the teens are kicking the tires on Howard. That would be quite the reach in comparison to the rankings of Howard by MLB.com (No. 75) and Law (No. 59). Baseball America is more bullish on Howard, ranking him 25th among draft prospects.
  • Law appeared with ESPN’s Buster Olney on today’s Baseball Tonight Podcast to discuss a host of draft-related topics (Law appears from the 23:00 mark to the 45:00 mark). Law began by sharing a great deal from his experience with the Blue Jays’ front office, including the inner workings of a draft room, the unheralded successes of some area scouts and the change in decision-making processes as the draft progresses into the later rounds.
  • Law also broke down the top of his most recent mock draft. In discussing the No. 5 pick (he has Gordon going to the Twins), he notes that Minnesota seems to be down to Gordon or LSU right-hander Aaron Nola. Law adds that he was on-hand for Nola’s most recent SEC start and saw executives from teams “from No. 2 on down,” including Marlins GM Dan Jennings, White Sox VP Kenny Williams and Cubs GM Jed Hoyer. Law says the Twins have been targeting Gordon “all spring.”
  • Law feels that if Aiken, Rodon and Kolek are all off the board, the Cubs will cut a deal at No. 4 and turn around to “crush pitching” with their next several picks. He currently has them selecting Oregon State outfielder Michael Conforto, who brings an element of plate discipline that their current top prospects lack. He adds that he could also see them cutting a deal with Nola, though he sees Nola as more of a mid-rotation starter (that could be in the bigs in a year’s time) than an ace.
  • The White Sox selection of Kolek is “the lock” of the top five picks, says Law. He also adds that Marlins ownership has pushed strongly for Rodon due to his proximity to the Majors and marketability as a Cuban-American left-hander. Law calls his slider the best overall pitch in the draft. (Note that these bullets are a very brief summary, and those with heavy interest in the MLB draft will consider the Olney/Law segment time well spent upon listening to it in its entirety.)
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