Koji Uehara had a meteoric rise to becoming one of the most dominant closers in the game, but the 39-year-old also had a sharp decline at the end of the 2014 season that has seriously clouded his free agent stock.
Strengths/Pros
You’d be hard-pressed to find a relief pitcher — or any pitcher — with definitively better control than Uehara. Since jumping to the Majors in 2009, Uehara has walked 46 batters in 350 1/3 innings, and four of those have been intentional. He’s averaged just 1.2 walks per nine innings over a six-year career, and a dozen of those walks came in his rookie season. He hasn’t walked more than nine batters in any of the past five seasons.
Uehara isn’t just a control artist, however. Armed with a devastating split-finger, Uehara struck out 11.2 hitters per nine innings this season and has averaged 10.6 K/9 in his MLB career. Among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched, his ridiculous 18.8 percent swinging strike rate in 2014 was second only to Aroldis Chapman.
He battled a bit of shoulder soreness early in the year, but Uehara was able to avoid the disabled list for the second straight season. He’s been on the DL just once in the past four seasons, when he missed a little more than two months with a strained right lat. Overall, he’s been durable and highly effective as a late-inning option for the Orioles, Rangers and Red Sox.
Uehara comes with experience in a setup role and in a closing role. He took over as the closer for the 2013 Red Sox and played a significant role in their World Series victory, posting a 1.09 ERA with 12.2 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9 in the regular season before firing 13 2/3 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs. He struck out 16 hitters without issuing a walk in the postseason and was named ALCS MVP after appearing in five of the six games. Teams will value the fact that he has thrived in a major market and on the game’s biggest stage.
Weaknesses/Cons
Uehara will pitch next season at the age of 40, so clubs will inevitably have some reservation about his age.
The bigger concern for interested teams, however, will likely be the precipitous drop-off in his performance at the end of the season. Uehara yielded 10 runs over his final 7 2/3 innings this past season, leading many to wonder if he had become fatigued after a such heavy workload over the past two years. Uehara pitched only five times in the month of September, as he was shut down for a large portion of the month. Dominant as he’s been, that slide, coupled with his age, is will be seen as a reason for pause.
Uehara has never thrown hard, but his 88.2 mph average fastball last season was the second-slowest of his big league career and represented a noticeable drop from the prior year’s 89.2 mph mark. He also throws more splitters than any reliever in baseball — a pitch that is believed by many to put a high amount of stress on the elbow. Angels manager Mike Scioscia, Rays manager Joe Maddon and former Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson all weighed in on the risks of the pitch in this 2011 piece from the Associated Press.
Personal
Though a clear language barrier separates Uehara from his teammates, he’s learned enough to get by with teammates since moving to the U.S. and is wildly popular among teammates, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal wrote late last year. Uehara is a master of using impersonations to get a laugh out of teammates; Brian Matusz spoke kindly of a particularly amusing impression of Jim Johnson, MacPherson wrote. Craig Breslow told MacPherson that no one thinks of Uehara as someone from another continent. “They think of him as one of the guys.” Breslow was complimentary of Uehara’s one-liners, stating that because he didn’t speak quite enough English to build up context, “Every time he opens his mouth, it’s a punchline.” Drake Britton called Uehara “one of the coolest people” he’s ever met.
Uehara is married and has one child. In his time with Boston he’s been active in the community by visiting victims of the Boston Marathon bombing, participating in a golf tournament to benefit a South Florida children’s hospital and participating in a baseball camp for children, among many other events/appearances, per the Red Sox media guide.
Market
The Red Sox have made it known that they want Uehara back in 2015, and there’s mutual interest between the two sides. While they’ve taken the ambiguous stance of stating that they’re not sure whether they’ll extend a qualifying offer, I have to imagine that a QO is firmly out of the question after Uehara’s late-season struggles. While most players prefer the security of a multi-year deal and are therefore disinclined to take the QO, the 40-year-old Uehara almost certainly wouldn’t be able to top that mark and would likely accept.
While Uehara certainly has a good relationship with Boston, he said in an interview with the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham this summer that he’s willing to go to any club in free agency: “The experience with the Red Sox has been fun. The World Series and now being selected an All-Star. But I don’t have any specific teams that I want to play for. Any team that wants me the most is fine.”
Any team in need of bullpen help on a short-term deal would be interested in Uehara, though given his age, it seems that he would likely limit himself to contending clubs in hopes off reaching another World Series. In addition to the Red Sox, I’d imagine that the Yankees, Dodgers, Tigers, Nationals, Cardinals and Giants could all show interest in Uehara.
Expected Contract
Uehara hasn’t given any indication that he’s only looking to play one more season, so it seems possible that he could get some offers of both the one- and two-year variety. On a two-year deal, given his age and poor results over his final five weeks or so, I have a difficult time envisioning him signing for a fair AAV.
While Uehara certainly may prefer the security of playing on a multi-year deal after going year-to-year for so long, there might not be much upside for him taking a lower AAV to lock in the second year. If he could find a one-year offer similar to the $10MM deal Mariano Rivera signed prior to the 2013 season, Uehara could eclipse his theoretical ceiling on a two-year guarantee even with a somewhat diminished performance in 2015. Unless he blows out his arm, it seems reasonable that he could expect to find $5-6MM next winter with any sort of reasonable success, and possibly quite a bit more.
This seems to me to be a matter of preference for the player (one-year at a higher AAV or two years with some additional security), but the I’m predicting that Uehara will sign a one-year, $11MM contract.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Who will have more value in 2015, Uehara or Miller?
I think Miller.
That being stated, I wish the Tigers would pass on Scherzer and sign both to the MLBTR projected contracts (4/$32MM for Miller and 1/$11MM for Uehara).
If Boston gives him a QO then I think the proper comparison would be Koji and David Robertson.
I don’t see how Boston gives him a QO. That means he will take it, and they will pay more than they want.
Difference there is 10 years in age though, plus Uehara’s massive slide at the end of the year. I don’t often think players would accept a QO — they always want the multi-year deal — but I definitely think Uehara would accept the QO.
He’s not wrong in some ways. Uehara and Robertson, in his scenario, would be huge-market closers tied down by draft pick compensation and recent-year closing experience. Miller hasn’t been a closer, was traded mid-season, and thus is ineligible to receive a QO (though he wouldn’t have gotten it regardless) and is probably the best pitcher of the bunch. Value in 2015 – whether it’s relative to salary or just in pure performance – makes the age difference a lot less meaningful. The slide for Uehara is important, and may have to do with his age, but that’s all that would be considered. Robertson being more likely to hold up in ’16, ’17, ’18 and beyond doesn’t matter as far as value in ’15.
why would a question about “value in 2015” hinge on the Qualifying Offer, something that has nothing to do with performance whatsoever for next year?
I’ve probably never been more on the fence about re-signing a player as much as I am about Koji. When on his game, he’s virtually unhittable. He’s a great clubhouse guy. Of course, he’s getting to “that age” and the drop in effectiveness scares me off, not only due to fatigue, but I have to wonder if there’s more serious shoulder/arm issues than reported (although a pre-contract physical would expose any red flags). No way I give him a QO. Sorry.
I imagine there will be plenty of teams willing to sign him at one year and virtually no one offering two years.
11 million seems a bit high IMO. I’d be more keen to predict a one year, 9 million dollar contract and maybe some type of option included at a similar AAV.
I see no way the BoSox give him a QO – simply because im 99.9% certain he’d take it, and he isnt worth it, as good as hes been, the end of last season withstanding.
That said hes clearly still got plenty to offer so i see plenty of suitors, who doesnt need quality relief in general?
I could see someone offering 1 year $10m with an option, in fact i think if someone did go to two years they could go substantially lower on the AAV, 2 years $15/16m may well swing it, but yes, im if a GM, i go no further than a one year pact.
11 million and he lost his closer job. Now it may be that his arm comes back with six months rest.
I think he’s more worth 8-10 MM on a one-year term, but I could see a small bidding war ensue. He’s a really good reliever – assuming he isn’t going to pitch as he did down the stretch going forward – who would be available for a single year, mitigating risk. I liken him to Joe Nathan, except starting to show signs of ineffectiveness slightly earlier. Nathan secured 2/20 with an option, so 1/11 for Uehara isn’t outrageous, but I think 1/8-10 is more realistic. At Uehara’s age, his slide can’t be ignored, and Nathan was in a much better situation – basically if Uehara had hit FA in July, essentially, when there were talks of a QO – yet only secured 2/20 guaranteed. I think Uehara’s slide knocked him from 2/20-24 territory to 1/8-10 territory to rebuild value and try to achieve that 20+ MM for 2015-2016.
If the Tigers sign him, he will be Joe Nathan 2.0.
If anyone else signs him, he will be Mariano 2.0.
Or, he could be signed by another team and be like Jim Johnson. Or Grant Balfour. Or Rafael Soriano. Or Jonathan Papelbon. Or Ryan Madson. Or Frank Francisco. Or the dozens of other “proven” relievers who break down and crumble. Relievers are certainly the most volatile of the positions. Fixing Detroit’s bullpen disaster by throwing more money at the problem probably isn’t smartest. They signed Nathan and acquired Soria, but neither helped much. You know what Detroit should have done? Not traded Doug Fister, and kept Drew Smyly as a relief weapon. They might not have needed to trade for Price is that were the case. Fister/Verlander/Scherzer/Porcello would’ve been a more-than-capable rotation with Smyly heading up an improved-bullpen. Plus, they’d still have Austin Jackson. Trading Fister necessitated the win-now trade for Price and now they don’t have Fister for ’15, Jackson for ’15, Smyly for the next few years, a horrendous bullpen, and might lose Scherzer, Hunter and V-Mart to FA.
Right. If you’re having to repeatedly add relievers for late innings, there’s a major problem in the development side of the organization.
Smyly deserved to be a starter. How do I know this definitively?
He was THE key piece in the Price trade. Mentioning the Price trade proves that he should have been a starter. No way Tampa Bay trades Price for middle reliever.
I would rather have Price than Fister.
I’d rather have Doug Fister, Drew Smyly, Austin Jackson with Rajai Davis as fourth outfielder than Rajai Davis as starter, Ian Krol/Joe Nathan, and David Price. The downgrade from Smyly to Krol/Nathan in the ‘pen and from Austin Jackson to starting Davis outweighs the upgrade, to me. There’s also cost factor – Price is going to significantly out-cost Fister next year. Price is great, but he cost you a lot in a win-now decision. Smyly has a bright future as a starter, but there is no doubt he was the best reliever in Detroit in 2013 and would’ve been much needed with a full rotation already in place (Verlander, Scherzer, Anibal, Porcello, Fister) in ’14. They downgraded significantly in two places for an upgrade in the rotation, where they’re already excellent.
That’s not to say you don’t trade Smyly/Jackson/Adames for Price every time when you can win a WS. You do. The issue is “pulling off” the horrendous trade of Doug Fister which put you in that position to begin with. Krol/Lombardozzi/Ray was a disastrous return on Fister. Fister could’ve netted much, much, much more in a trade, pieces that could’ve actually helped Detroit in 2014, pieces like actual relievers or outfielders or real prospects. It was a terrible trade, compounded by bad signings, which put them in the situation where they needed to acquire Price.
Ray is the key piece. The other 2 are thrown in. We have no idea how good he will be.
Ray’s 2014 does not look much different than Verlander’s 2005. It is way too early to say the Tigers lost that trade.
If you are going to combine trades, then you have to combine ALL trades/moves the Tigers made together.
Tigers got: Price, Kinsler, Ray, Krol.
Tigers lost: Fister, Fielder, Smyly, Jackson
Tigers got the best pitcher and the best position player in those combined deals and freed up money for longterm spending: two of the four key players they got are at league minimum salary.
Price is not going to significantly “out-cost” Fister, maybe $5MM difference?
The Tigers expected to sign Scherzer after making the Fister trade. Price is simply picking up Scherzer money. From that perspective, Price is replacing Scherzer, not Fister.
Perfectly summed up the detroit situation to be fair.
At the end of the day he comes back. He is a fan favorite and he wants to be here. He clearly struggled from over use.
Now, if they can just get Farrell to not pitch him when it’s completely unnecessary…
i want koji back in boston. miller too. if i had to choose, id take koji. i the that guy. his enthusiasm is infectious.
I actually really like Uehara as a piece for the Mets. Given his extremely high SwStr% and low Z-Contact%, I see him fitting right into the Mets sabermetric philosophy. I know they aren’t very afraid of giving sizable contracts to players entering their 40s (Bartolo Colon).
He’ll be fine. Farrell worked him like a rented mule last year (and really, since the ASB the year before) and he broke down in August. And it was completely unnecessary. If he hadn’t broken down, he would have pitched in about 80 games last year, as a 39-year-old closer on a 71-win team. Which is patently absurd.
I simply don’t believe that. Being 52nd in the league in innings pitched and 68th in games as a reliever is not a rented mule by any stretch of the imagination. He lost his feel for his splitter. It’s happened to him in his career before. The fact remains that he’s never had as dominant a season as he had in 2013 before, and he’s unlikely to have it again. It has nothing to do with being overworked, it’s just everything clicked in 2013 and he came back down to earth in 2014.
I’d also blame it on age regression.
It’s hard to say age will cause you to be unable to throw a splitter. Age hurts velocity more than anything else, and when you make your money on deception age doesn’t really enter into it. He has a fastball that tops off at 90. I wouldn’t go so far as to say he’s immune to age regression, but about as close as can be. 2013 was far and away the best season of his career. To then say anything else is regression, isn’t paying attention to the complete body of work. One’s season shouldn’t be judged as a failure because it comes on the heals of far and away the best season you’ve ever had (almost any closer has ever had really). It’s like saying RA Dickey has regressed or failed because he never had another season like his CY Young season.
Sox should sign Koji for 1/10 and Miller for 3/21 if they can swing it. Koji needs to be used more sparingly. Then let Miller spot-close when Koji is unavailable, and see if it’s something he could handle full-time in 2016.
Miller will most likely get 4/28-32 from someone. He’s a union guy that believes whomever offers the highest salary, is what team he’ll go to. It’s that simple. No way a team doesn’t offer at least a 4 year contract.
Uehara still has a home in Baltimore and his family covets a return to the Orioles, where he spent his first 2 1/2 major league seasons before being traded to the Rangers on July 30, 2011 for first baseman Chris Davis and pitcher Tommy Hunter. This item was omitted under the personal items for Uehara.
Do you think the Orioles will try to sign him for $11MM? Or would it be better to get Miller for a lower AAV but 3-4 years?
Uehara should bounce back in ’15. He worked very hard in’13 with many more innings pitched due to the post season.The Sox are wishywashy,though,and will muck it up by using his age and not wanting to spend what it will cost to keep maybe the most effective pitcher in the game over the last five years.. He will probably go to the Yankees as they love to pick up Sox players.