Teams have until 4pm CT today to issue one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offers to impending free agents. If the offer is turned down, a team would receive a compensatory first round pick in the 2015 draft if their free agent signed elsewhere. MLBTR will report on all of the qualifying offers when they’re officially issued and you can stay quickly updated via MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker. Here’s the latest QO buzz, with the newest items at the top of the post…
- The Braves have told Ervin Santana that he will receive a qualifying offer, a source tells MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. The move was expected given Santana’s good 2014 season, and it will be interesting to see how Santana fares in free agency this offseason given how the QO playing a role in limiting his market last winter. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts Santana will find a four-year, $56MM deal this time around.
- The Yankees “don’t seem especially likely” to make Hiroki Kuroda a qualifying offer, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman writes, though the club hasn’t yet made a final decision about what to do with the 39-year-old righty. Heyman doesn’t think a rival team would give up a draft pick to sign Kuroda to a one-year deal worth more than $15.3MM, so if the Yankees did issue the QO, it could limit Kuroda’s market. Kuroda could also retire or return to Japan, making the qualifying offer scenario moot.
- Also from Heyman, there is no doubt the Dodgers will make Hanley Ramirez a qualifying offer even if Andrew Friedman and Ramirez’s agent both aren’t commenting on the matter.
Yankees gave Kuroda 16 million for 1 year last offseason as well as offering him the QO. There is no reason why they can’t do something similar again.
Fair/classy way to handle it.
Fair and classy won’t give the Yankees a draft pick if Kuroda goes back to LAD. Fair and classy didn’t give Pittsburgh a draft pick when Burnett had supposedly been weighing retirement or a return to Pittsburgh. I understand the sentiment, but they must be really confident it’s Japan, NYY, or retirement to not offer the QO.
Don’t understand. Yankees can offer him a little MORE than the QO as well has giving him the QO if he would prefer. It is up to HIM to decide.
I assumed you meant fair and classy as if to not limit his market. We’re apparently talking about different things.
The Yankees won’t give him a QO just to be nice to him basically by not killing his market? I can’t see any other reason.
Retirement looming for Kuroda. It’s too bad he couldn’t have started his MLB career career earlier. He’s had a pretty good run.
Still made a very good $88 million in his career (will make $100 million most likely if he plays 1 more year).
So? It would have been nice to see Kuroda’s entire career here. I’m not paying the man and his salaries don’t affect me. I just would’ve liked to see Kuroda start here, or at least come here earlier than he did.
On average, we can reasonably assume that a QO reduces a contract with a new team by about $6MM.
I’m going to say that depends on the player. For a guy like Ervin Santana, I agree with you. But for a guy like Shields or Scherzer I doubt it. So for all of those middle tier guys yes it does have an effect. But for the cream of the crop guys, I don’t think it has any effects.
I disagree. It still has an effect. Who knows if Seattle would’ve been comfortable offering 10/245 if Cano had been traded midseason? Every team should consider every repercussion of their decisions. The only reason it’s a bigger deal for Santana/Cruz/etc. of the world is because 14 MM instead of 20 MM is a much larger percentage decrease than 125 instead of 130 or 240 instead of 245. We’ve got no idea if these teams would’ve offered slightly more. Lester/Scherzer will be the first real litmus test of this. If a team like the Cubs ignores Scherzer altogether and chooses to go after Lester and keep their draft pick and it causes Lester to somehow get close to Scherzer’s contract, it could be a consideration even for the top talent.
A good case study will be Scherzer v. Lester.
I contend that Lester will get the bigger offer, even though he is not quite as highly regarded.
Not debating it, just wondering how you came up with this figure.
MLB TR did some analysis. I believe it was a multiple of the slot value of the pick. I am just giving a “general average”.
Of course, the penalty is much lower if it the SECOND QO player or if it is the loss of a second round pick v. a 1st round pick.
It is pretty obvious who will receive qualifying offers:
Russell Martin
Hanley Ramirez
Pablo Sandoval
Aramis Ramirez
Melky Cabrera
Nick Markakis
Billy Butler
Nelson Cruz
Victor Martinez
Hiroki Kuroda
Jon Lester
Francisco Liriano
Brandon McCarthy
Max Scherzer
James Shields
David Robertson
Markakis and Butler will NOT receive QOs. A couple of the others you list are still on the bubble.
Lester cant. That’s why he’s Number 1 on my list, over Scherzer.
Lester and McCarthy cannot receive one, and there’s no way Markakis or Butler get one. I also don’t expect Liriano to get one.
Exactly what I was thinking and add Aramis and Kuroda to that too.
I count 8 possibly 9 with Robertson, who should get QO’s on that list. Ramirez toss-up. That would make it 10 tops, for me at least.
Yeah, I agree. It’s those nine plus Ervin Santana (see: this very article) who will get the offer.
Markakis, McCarthy (ineligible due to mid-season trade), Billy Butler, Francisco Liriano and Jon Lester (ineligible due to mid-season trade) will not receive QO’s.
Santana did much better in 2013 than he did in 2014. After his very good 2013 season, nobody wanted him for what he was asking for and he settled for a 1 year deal. How does Santana and his agent expect things to change this offseason when he did Worse, AND when the free agents for Starting Pitching is actually quite better this offseason
If I’m Santana, I’d accept the 1 year raise.
you could make a case, he gave up I think 10 less hr and k more per 9 than career numbers indicate. I really dont understand why a guy like him doesn’t get a 3yr contract. He reminds me of the pitching version of Adam LaRoche. Solid year after solid year (the majority of the time) but contractually doesn’t get the respect he deserves. The 10 earned runs he gave up difference, can be chalked up to simply poorer defense from the braves than Royals last year.
looked it up braves were dirty defensively speaking last year, so I guess that point is moot :/
Santana’s xFIP did indeed go down a slight tick from 3.69 in 2013 to 3.47 in 2014. He’s thoroughly average – as his career ERA + of 99 indicates. He’s a back-end guy who’ll eat some innings, but is not to be counted on. He should take the QO. Why any team would make a 4 year (or for that matter, 3 year) commitment and give up a draft pick for this established slice of mediocrity is beyond me.
Santana’s 2014 performance was very close to his 2013 performance (his 2014 FIP and K/9 were actually better) and more importantly he put up back to back quality seasons; puting more distance between himself and a very terrible 2012 season.
ERA+
2013 – 127
2014 – 92
WHIP
2013 – 1.14
2014 – 1.31
K/BB
2013 – 3.16
2014- 2.84
WAR
2013- 2.9
2014 – 1.2
In 2013, he set a career high LOB% of 76.9%. In 2014, it dropped down to 71.6% (slightly below his career of 71.6%), and in 2013 he set a career high GB% of 46.2%, which then dropped 3.5% then to 42.7% in 2014.
By the way, the 2014 Braves were the 5th best defensive team in baseball according to UZR whereas the 2013 Royals were 1st
Sounds like his 2013 season was helped by good defense (as was his 2014 season technically), which is why his BABIP was a very low .267 in 2013 and then up to .319 this year
They expect to do better because I’d imagine many teams were afraid of 2012 last year. That’s another year further away now, hence why he should do better. He also could’ve gotten a 4/50 deal had his expectations been lower, earlier, IMO. I think Santana rejecting the QO is his best move.
Careful there Dodgers. There’s always a chance that Hanley accepts the offer. I have a guy who tells me they weren’t going to even offer because they want him gone that bad. New GM now but Kasten still shot calling?
Hanley Ramirez on a one year deal worth 15 MM??? Where do I sign?
Yes, his defense is pretty bad, but he’s top 2 offensive SS in all of baseball. Why wouldn’t you sign him for a year knowing he’ll be playing on a contract year?
Because he’s a clubhouse cancer, always hurt, and can’t play SS. Isn’t it a bit strange there hasn’t been an announcement on the QO already if its such a slam dunk?
Clubhouse cancer? Got some evidence of that? And no, it isn’t strange. There’s been no announcement on Scherzer or Sandoval as best I’ve seen. Does anyone really doubt them?
Yeah, Hanley is hurt frequently. When he’s on the field he’s a top-3 shortstop in the league. Hanley is a very, very easy QO recipient and should thank his lucky stars if the Dodgers really don’t offer it. He’s going to get paid, as a 31-year-old with good projections and 40 career WAR should. He’s a legitimate 3.5-4 WAR player, and might need to shift to 3B soon, but he’ll still be very good there.
Your “guy” is wrong. Let’s say he accepts for some bizarre reason. You don’t think some team out there would offer a prospect for Hanley Ramirez on a one-year deal?
He accepts the Dodgers are up to 215MM when they’re trying to trim to 190MM.
I don’t really think Hanley Ramirez on a massive bargain deal goes against the Dodgers’ plans, sorry.
The Dodgers are trying to get to 190 million next year? According to who Bill Plaschke? The Dodgers would love Hanley on a 1 year deal. For near any amount, I’ll believe the Dodgers are trying to cut spending when they actually come out and say “next year we want to be under 200 mil”.
The Dodgers cable deal is in shambles. Something will give. The problem is they can’t move an OF without taking on 9/10 of salary.
My guy was wrong.
Hanley will receive a QO and not offering him one would be illogical and unjustifiable for the Dodgers.
Just read that Kuroda isn’t getting one, Robertson is.
the good of the QO to Ervin is one if he doesn’t accept and signs some where, braves get the pick, but even if he does accept, we bolster a depleted rotation if Harang doesn’t come back.
what do you guys think about the braves trading chris johnson and giving the spot to hanley ramirez who can play either 3rd short or second and give lastella/gosselin/simmons a day off when they need one …surely you would agree hanley ramirez would provide not only more power but much better defensive skills at the hot corner ss and 2nd base than chris johnson and tommy lastella do