Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers made a couple of blockbuster trades and re-worked their bullpen but steered clear of the big free agent signings we've come to expect from GM Dave Dombrowski and owner Mike Ilitch.
Major League Signings
- Joe Nathan, RHP: Two years, $20MM plus $10MM club option for 2016.
- Rajai Davis, OF: Two years, $10MM.
- Joba Chamberlain, RHP: One year, $2.5MM.
- Total Spend: $32.5MM
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
- Miguel Cabrera, 1B: Eight years, $248MM.
Trades and Claims
- Acquired 2B Ian Kinsler from the Rangers in exchange for 1B Prince Fielder and $30MM.
- Acquired LHP Robbie Ray, LHP Ian Krol and INF Steve Lombardozzi from the Nationals in exchange for RHP Doug Fister.
- Acquired INF Alex Gonzalez from the Orioles in exchange for INF Steve Lombardozzi.
- Acquired INF Andrew Romine from the Angels in exchange for LHP Jose Alvarez.
Notable Losses
- Prince Fielder, Doug Fister, Jhonny Peralta, Jose Veras, Joaquin Benoit, Omar Infante, Brayan Pena, Darin Downs
Needs Addressed
The Tigers wrapped up their 2013 season with an ALCS loss to the Red Sox that served as a bittersweet farewell to longtime manager Jim Leyland. Their first order of business was to find a new skipper, and they did so in the form of former big league catcher Brad Ausmus.
However, Detroit's biggest need this offseason could arguably have been to gain some long-term financial flexibility, and the club was able to accomplish that while finding a replacement for Infante all in the same move. In trading Fielder to the Rangers for Kinsler and $30MM, Dombrowski successfully shaved $76MM off the payroll over the next several years.
That savings, perhaps along with some of the money saved in the Fister trade, paved the way for the Tigers to sign Miguel Cabrera to a whopping eight-year, $248MM extension that serves as the second largest deal in history in terms of new money. When combined with the existing two years and $44MM he was already owed, Cabrera's 10-year, $292MM commitment is the largest ever made to a player in Major League history.
Last season, the Tigers experienced an early-season carousel in the ninth inning that led to a short-lived and unsightly reunion with Jose Valverde before Benoit finally solidified the closer's spot. However, Benoit departed via free agency, and the Tigers sought the biggest upgrade the market had to offer, inking active saves leader Nathan to a two-year deal. It's not without risk, given Nathan's age (39), but then again, what multi-year deal for a reliever is? Seeking a more affordable option than Veras for a setup role, Dombrowski brought in Chamberlain on a one-year deal. Chamberlain's struggles in New York were pronounced, but he fits the mold of the typical hard-throwing power arm that Detroit tends to target.
Those additions, along with the Fister trade, allowed the Tigers to move Drew Smyly into the rotation alongside Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello, with Krol sliding into the 'pen in Smyly's stead. That quintet looks to be one of the most talented groups in the Majors and should give the Tigers a good chance to once again post one of the five best collective rotation ERAs in the game.
In the outfield, Dombrowski sought to add more speed by adding Davis on a two-year deal, and he would have formed a solid platoon with Andy Dirks, had Dirks not suffered a back injury. Dirks is on the shelf for the first three months or so of the season, thrusting Davis, rookie Tyler Collins and utility man Don Kelly into more action than originally expected.
Questions Remaining
While the Cabrera extension clearly filled a need for the near future, it will almost certainly be perceived in a negative light by its completion. Cabrera could very well be the best power hitter on the face of the planet right now, so it makes sense that that Tigers would want to retain him and even lock him up for life, but history has shown that 10-year commitments such as this one (e.g. Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols) aren't likely to pan out. While he has astoundingly never been on the disabled list, Cabrera did battle a groin injury that required offseason surgery in 2013, and the odds of him maintaining his impressive durability through his age-40 season are slim to none.
The bigger question, for the Tigers, will be how many more years of elite slugging they receive from Cabrera before his inevitable decline. For all of Cabrera's accolades at the plate, the same "best hitter on the planet" tag could have been applied to Pujols or Rodriguez at the time of their signings, and they wilted quickly (though Pujols could still experience a turnaround, of course). And, it must be asked if the best way to utilize their newfound financial freedom after escaping Fielder's decline years was to immediately dedicate that money to the decline years of another slugger.
Injuries have ravaged the Tigers' roster, creating a good deal of uncertainty for the 2014 season. For the time being, they've elected to bridge the gap to Dirks' return with internal options, but a waiver claim or some type of minor move to improve that depth early in the season wouldn't be a surprise.
Of longer-term consequence is the fact that Jose Iglesias is likely to miss the season with stress fractures in each of his shins/ The Tigers have, to this point, deployed an unexciting combination of Gonzalez and Romine to fill the void. One has to wonder just how long they can go with that combination before looking for a real upgrade.
The logical connection to make there is that Stephen Drew remains unsigned, and at this point, there may not be a team with a greater need that represents a better fit. Drew is already in the clear in terms of dodging another qualifying offer — any team that signs him would be unable to make an offer, as he didn't spent the entire year on its roster — but the Tigers may prefer to wait until after the June draft to make a move. That strategy would preserve their 2015 first-round pick, but it would also mean about two months of replacement-level production at shortstop as well as the risk that another club swoops in and signs him at an earlier date.
In addition to Dirks and Iglesias, the Tigers also lost flamethrowing setup ace Bruce Rondon to Tommy John surgery. Rondon's departure for the season means that the Tigers will be relying on a patchwork bullpen to get to Nathan in the ninth inning, with Krol, Chamberlain and Al Alburquerque representing the best options for Ausmus.
A final, albeit lesser question mark is whether or not Nick Castellanos can hold down the fort as Ausmus' primary third base option. Castellanos is universally regarded as one of the game's top hitting prospects, but he's still just 22 years old and rocketed through the minor leagues without clearly dominating at any one level. That's not to say he isn't capable of being a plus third baseman in the Majors, but merely to ask if it's a reasonable expectation for the 2014 campaign.
Deal of Note
The Fister trade is still one of the most controversial moves of the offseason, simply due to the fact that most feel Dombrowski — who is generally perceived as an excellent GM in trades — didn't receive a large enough return for his right-hander.
From 2011-13, Fister ranked ninth among all Major League pitchers in fWAR (13.3) and rWAR (12.6). In 586 2/3 innings in that time, Fister posted a 3.30 ERA with 6.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 3.75 K/BB and a 50.9 percent ground-ball rate that ranked 18th among 139 qualified starting pitchers. The Nationals will control him for two more seasons, with a $7.2MM salary on tap in 2014 before one more arbitration raise next offseason.
Essentially, Fister has pitched at a level that is comparable, if not superior to that of James Shields over the three-year term that preceded his to his trade to the Royals (albeit in a weaker division). Shields, who was also more expensive than Fister, posted a 3.76 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 46.6 percent ground-ball rate in that time. He did total an additional 100 innings, and the Rays included Wade Davis in the deal as well, but it seems disproportionate that Shields would net a package headlined by Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi while Fister yielded Ray, Krol and Lombardozzi.
Ray is the jewel of the deal, but he didn't rank among the game's Top 100 prospects per Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus, and he came in at No. 97 on MLB.com's list. Dombrowski has said the trade was made due to the difficulty of acquiring young pitching, noting that Ray was one of 15 pitching prospects who interested the Tigers and the only one with which a rival club was willing to part. Perhaps Dombrowski sensed the impending injury to Fister that has sidelined him to open the season, but he was healthy enough at the time of the trade to pass Washington's physical, so it seems unlikely that any sort of major red flag was present.
With Lombardozzi already shipped off, the Tigers are left with Ray, Krol and one year of Gonzalez to show for Fister, making Ray's development critical to the trade's success. Should Ray fail to pan out, the Tigers would be left with a left-handed reliever and some extra cash that may have helped to facilitate a likely ill-fated contract extension for Cabrera — a tough pill to swallow for Detroit fans.
Overview
Despite question marks in the bullpen and at shortstop, the Tigers boast an elite rotation and a lineup that should score plenty of runs, making them the favorites to take home their fourth consecutive AL Central Division Championship. This team is in a clear win-now mode, although the subtraction of Fister does contradict that thinking to an extent. The Tigers could very well find themselves in the market for a one-year upgrade at shortstop or some short-term help in left field, but even if they stick with in-house options, they're likely to see October baseball once again.
The long-term outlook is more questionable, as after shedding the decline phase of Fielder's contract, the Tigers purchased a larger portion of that same phase of Cabrera's career. They already have a remarkable $83.8MM in contracts guaranteed in 2017, $68MM in 2018 (including buyouts for Kinsler and Anibal Sanchez) and $58MM in 2019. With some potentially restrictive commitments for declining players on the books in the future, the team could be facing a closing window for its first World Series title since 1984.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Minor Moves: Ciriaco, Mazzaro, Bixler, Accardo
The day's minor moves:
- The Royals have assigned infielder Pedro Ciriaco to Triple-A after he cleared outright waivers, tweets Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star. Ciriaco, 28, will have to wait in the minors for another big league opportunity to open with Kansas City's middle infield. The club just called up Johnny Giavotella to fill in for injured second baseman Omar Infante, who is expected to return to action soon without a DL trip.
- Pirates reliever Vin Mazzaro has accepted an outright assignment from the team to Triple-A, reports Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune (via Twitter). That is a good result for a Pittsburgh club that had expected to lose the 27-year-old righty, who was an effective piece for them last year.
- Utility man Brian Bixler has been released by the Phillies, according to the International League transactions page. Bixler, 31, had been playing with the Phils' Triple-A affiliate. He last appeared in the bigs in 2012 with the Astros.
- The independent ball Atlantic League has made two notable additions today, according to Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com (Twitter links). Right-hander Jeremy Accardo, an eight-year MLB veteran, has inked with the Long Island Ducks. And shortly after being released by the Red Sox, 29-year-old outfielder Scott Cousins has joined the Camden Riversharks.
- The Dodgers have outrighted Mike Baxter, who has cleared waivers and been assigned to Triple-A, according to the PCL transactions page. The outfielder was designated for assignment to create 40-man space for another DFA'd player in Colt Hynes. Baxter, 29, struggled at the MLB level last year, but had a strong 2012 campaign (.263/.365/.413 in 211 plate appearances).
- With this move, only four players are left in DFA limbo: Seth Rosin (Rangers, Rule 5), Pedro Ciriaco (Royals), Hector Noesi (Mariners), and Jeremy Jeffress (Blue Jays). As always, you can track DFA situations past and present using MLBTR's DFA Tracker.
Avisail Garcia To Undergo Season-Ending Labrum Surgery
The White Sox have announced that young outfielder Avisail Garcia will undergo season-ending surgery to repair a torn left shoulder labrum. Acquired in last year's Jake Peavy deal, the 22-year-old will join the other main piece of that 3-way swap (Jose Iglesias) in missing the 2014 campaign.
Garcia, who has already gained 167 days of service entering the year, will remain on track to qualify for Super Two status after the 2015 season, assuming that he is able to regain an MLB role next year. In 341 big league plate appearances in his still-young career, Garcia has a .287/.323/.411 triple-slash. He was rated the game's 74th-best prospect before last season by Baseball America. The biggest loss for Chicago, of course, may simply be the playing time and development that the club hoped for from Garcia over 2014.
Meanwhile, Chicago will presumably give most of the playing time at the corner outfield to Alejandro De Aza (who was displaced at center by the trade for Adam Eaton) and Dayan Viciedo. While it has long been believed that one of those players could be available in trade, the South Siders will surely be less inclined to move one of them at this point. The team also has Leury Garcia and just-recalled Jordan Danks available in the outfield.
Service Time Considerations For Top Prospects
Now that we are over a week into the season, the time is fast approaching when top prospects that have yet to accrue any MLB service time can safely be brought up without the sacrifice of a year of control for their team. With less than 172 days left in the season, players who have no prior MLB time can no longer reach a full year by straight-ahead counting. (Remember: a year of service is achieved at 172 days on the active roster or big league DL; while a season has more than 172 days, a player cannot accrue more than one year of service for each season.)
However, MLB rules provide that players accrue service time if they spend less than 20 days on optional assignment in a given year. Thus, we are still about a week and a half away from the point that prospects who are already on the 40-man (and thus currently on optional assignment) can be called up while still preserving six full seasons of future team control.
Looking at the Baseball America Top 100 prospects, the following top prospects (with rank and team) are in the minors at present, have yet to accrue any MLB service, and are projected by BA to be ready for MLB action at some point in the current season:
Position Players
Byron Buxton (#1, Twins); Oscar Taveras (#3, Cardinals); Javier Baez (#5, Cubs); Miguel Sano (#6, Twins); Kris Bryant (#8, Cubs); Gregory Polanco (#10, Pirates); Francisco Lindor (#13, Indians); Addison Russell (#14, Athletics); Maikel Franco (#17, Phillies); George Springer (#18, Astros); and Jonathan Singleton (#82, Astros).
Pitchers
Archie Bradley (#9, D'Backs); Jon Gray (#12, Rockies); Jameson Taillon (#22, Pirates); Kyle Zimmer (#23, Royals); Eddie Butler (#24, Rockies); Andrew Heaney (#30, Marlins); Alex Meyer (#45, Twins); Marcus Stroman (#55, Blue Jays); Eduardo Rodriguez (#65, Orioles); and Rafael Montero (#68, Mets).
Of course, several of those players — notably, Sano and Taillon, who are both out for the season — may not have any realistic shot at this point of seeing time in the bigs this year.
For those players, the real key is Super Two status. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes wrote in October, qualification has landed between 2.122 and 2.146 years of service in recent years. To be safe, teams hoping to dodge an extra arbitration payday will want to wait until the calendar flips from May to June to promote the above-listed prospects.
Still other players have already seen some MLB time in years prior and are waiting in the minors for a chance at the bigs. Dylan Bundy (#15, Orioles; 15 days of service) and Jimmy Nelson (#96, Brewers; 27 days service) are both within several weeks of being ready for promotion without costing a year of future control, though the former is still working back from Tommy John. Others — Kevin Gausman (#20, Orioles; 71 days service); Matt Davidson (#72, White Sox; 50 days service); Jake Marisnick (#79, Marlins; 69 days service); and Allen Webster (#88, Red Sox; 44 days service) – would need to stay down for a good bit longer for their clubs to keep that extra season. That group will be among the most interesting names to watch, since it is easy to imagine their employers being tempted both to use them in the bigs and to keep their service clocks paused.
Then, of course, there are the players who have already seen time in the season's early going. The following players will surpass their first year of MLB service unless they are optioned down for much of the season (service shown as of start of 2014):
Position Players
Xander Bogaerts (#2, Red Sox; 42 days service); Nick Castellanos (#25, Tigers; 29 days service); Travis d'Arnaud (#38, Mets; 44 days service); Billy Hamilton (#43, Reds; 28 days service); Jackie Bradley (#50, Red Sox; 59 days service); Kolten Wong (#58, Cardinals; 45 days service); Chris Owings (#66, Diamondbacks; 27 days service); Marcus Semien (#91, White Sox; 27 days service); and Michael Choice (#98, Rangers; 29 days service).
Pitchers
Taijuan Walker (#11, Mariners; 31 days service); Yordano Ventura (#26, Royals; 13 days service); Carlos Martinez (#31, Cardinals; 73 days service); Erik Johnson (#63, White Sox; 27 days service); Jake Odorizzi (#67, Rays; 42 days service); Trevor Bauer (#83, Indians; 25 days service); and James Paxton (#99, Mariners; 27 days service).
Bradley, Semien, Choice, and Bauer (who was just promoted for one start) all have some chance of spending most of their years in the minors, though each could certainly earn a MLB spot. The other players listed all seem to be set up for ongoing, regular big league roles unless they falter.
These aren't all of the young players whose rise to the big leagues will be impacted by service time considerations, of course. But the above discussion should give you a fair idea of where others would fall, based upon their service time and development timeline.
Rangers Re-Sign Chris Gimenez
The Rangers have re-signed catcher Chris Gimenez to a minor league deal, according to the MLB transactions page. Gimenez had become a free agent after declining an outright assignment from the club just days ago, but ultimately elected to return.
Gimenez, 31, will serve as depth for a Rangers club that is currently relying on J.P. Arencibia and Robinson Chirinos at the MLB level while waiting for Geovany Soto to return from injury. He joins Chris Snyder as the top options behind that pair. In Triple-A last year, Gimenez hit .224/.350/.305 in 375 plate appearances, though he had much better numbers (.310/.389/.483 in 301 plate appearances) the year prior.
Quick Hits: Russell, Drew, Morales, Garcia, Twins, Gearrin
There was more bad injury news out of Oakland, as top Athletics prospect Addison Russell has torn his right hamstring and will be down for at least a month, according to a report from Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). Though Russell was not necessarily expected to contribute much at the MLB level this year — he had started his age-20 season at Double-A — a prolonged absence will certainly be unwelcome news for an Athletics club that could hypothetically look to Russell for a late-season boost or audition for 2015. Here are a few more stray notes from the day:
- There is a sense that the free agent market for Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales could be thawing, according to a report from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Multiple clubs have gone to scout the pair, says Heyman, and Morales in particular seems to be drawing increased activity. Heyman cites the Orioles, Mariners, and Brewers as teams thought to have interest, with the Pirates also a potential landing spot.
- Free agent starter Freddy Garcia has been throwing to Drew and Morales, Heyman adds. Though Garcia has received minor league offers since being cut loose by the Braves, he is holding out in hopes of signing straight into a MLB role.
- The Twins will be among the teams with the most cash to spend through international bonus pools and the amateur draft. Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN provides some updates on the club's current direction (Twitter links). Minnesota still has several hundred thousand dollars of uncommitted international cash to work with, and has narrowed its options for the 5th overall pick to eight players (most of whom are pitchers).
- As expected, Braves reliever Cory Gearrin will have Tommy John surgery and miss the 2014 season, David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution reported yesterday (via Twitter). The 27-year-old was a useful arm last year, throwing 31 innings of 3.77 ERA ball after notching 20 innings at a 1.80 ERA clip in 2012. Though the club has already filled in for Gearrin in the immediate term, his loss takes another depth piece away from an organization that has suffered more than its share of recent pitching injuries.
Minor Moves: Eric Berger, Anthony Vasquez
Here are the day's minor moves:
- The Athletics have released minor league lefty Eric Berger just days after acquiring him, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). Berger had been working at Sacramento since being added via trade just ten days ago. The southpaw had a solid run at Triple-A last year, throwing 70 2/3 innings of 3.06 ERA ball.
- Anthony Vasquez, another 27-year-old lefty, has inked a minor league deal with the Orioles, tweets Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com. Vasquez had a brief (and unsuccessful) run with the Mariners back in 2011, and saw his stock fall precipitously thereafter. He has worked almost exclusively as a starter in his professional career.
- The MLBTR DFA Tracker shows the following names in DFA limbo: Mike Baxter (Dodgers), Pedro Ciriaco (Royals), Hector Noesi (Mariners), and Jeremy Jeffress (Blue Jays).
Josh Hamilton Out 6-8 Weeks For Thumb Surgery
Angels outfielder Josh Hamilton has suffered a tear of the ulnar collateral ligament of his left thumb as well as a torn capsule, the team announced. He will undergo surgery in the next few days and is expected to miss six to eight weeks.
Replacing the injured slugger will be J.B. Shuck, a 26-year-old outfielder who narrowly missed a roster spot out of the spring. In the most extensive MLB action of his career last year, Shuck put up a .293/.331/.366 line in 478 plate appearances for the Halos. With 1.055 years of MLB service at the start of the season, Shuck will not have a chance to reach Super Two status next year, but could now hope to end the year with over 2 years of service.
Hamilton, of course, is in the second year of a mammoth five-year, $125MM contract. The deal is heavily backloaded, as his $15MM annual salary in the first two years will jump to $23MM next year and then $30MM in 2016-17. Though he disappointed last season, Hamilton — who will turn 33 during his rehab — had been off to a hot start to the 2014 campaign with a 1.286 OPS. Needless to say, the loss of Hamilton's bat (especially if it ends up being for longer than two months) will be a significant loss for an Angels club that hopes to compete in a loaded AL West.
Olney On Mazzaro, Drew, Morales, Huntington, Perkins
ESPN.com's Buster Olney touched on a number of interesting topics today in his Insider blog and podcast. Among them:
- One reason that Pirates reliever Vin Mazzaro may have cleared waivers is simply that he stood to be paid nearly twice the league minimum salary. "Once you go to spring training, you’ve spent almost all the money you’re going to spend," a general manager told Olney. "There aren’t many teams with a lot of extra money lying around."
- That same fact has a bearing on the situations of compensation free agents Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales. Olney polled executives around the league, finding that none were willing to pay either player at the qualifying offer rate of $14.1MM. The highest figure he heard was $10MM to $12MM AAV for Drew and a $8MM to $10MM rate for Morales on a multi-year deal, with most respondents landing well shy of those amounts. There were many other concerns raised as well, ranging from those players' injury histories to questions about their commitment to a new team (e.g., would they play through a late-season injury?) and worry about "the layoff and need for a modified spring training."
- Turning to the podcast, Olney spoke with Pirates GM Neal Huntington, who said that the team left its playoff run determined to return with focus. Instead, Huntington said that his concern entering the spring was how to keep positive energy flowing after the front office was criticized for its quiet offseason. Huntington said that the team wanted to do more, but that there "wasn't the right move out there" and he felt the organization needed to continue to "stretch when it's appropriate, stay disciplined when it's appropriate." Looking ahead, the GM said that, "if need be we can go outside because of the depth of our player development system."
- Huntington also discussed his team's well-publicized use of defensive shifts, saying that it is all about "maximizing our chances to put balls in play and turn them into outs" and indicating that much of the work is in shading out of the standard alignment. The approach for each situation is developed through what he calls a "multi-tiered process" within the organization.
- Olney also chatted with newly extended Twins closer Glen Perkins, who is under team control through 2018. Perkins said that he made clear to his agent as far back as his first extension that he was happy to take a deal and stay in town rather than "pric[ing] myself out" of the organization. The lefty says that maximizing money is not the most important thing, and saw value in the possibility of a World Series run with his hometown club while providing for his family's future when he had the chance. He kicked things off by suggesting a new deal to his agent, with a deal coming together quickly thereafter.
- Asked for his opinion on the idea of players accepting so-called team-friendly deals, Perkins said that the chances of upside are met (and often exceeded) by the possibility of "blowing your arm out." It becomes somewhat easier to take on risk as a player's earnings rise throughout their career, Perkins noted, but looking for "a little more" is tough when "you're always one pitch away." His ultimate advice to players is hard to disagree with: "get yours while you can."
Rangers Designate Seth Rosin For Assignment
The Rangers have designated right-hander Seth Rosin for assignment and purchased the contract of third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (on Twitter).
Texas has a need at third base following a quad injury to Adrian Beltre in yesterday's game. Kouzmanoff, a veteran of six Major League seasons, can fill that role should Beltre need to miss time, though he hasn't appeared in the Majors since splitting the 2011 season between the A's and Rockies. Kouzmanoff, 32, blasted at least 16 homers and 30 doubles in each season from 2007-10 with the Padres and A's but also struggled to get on base in that time (combined .303 OBP). He's a career .255/.300/.420 hitter that has spent the past few seasons in Triple-A with the Royals and Marlins.
Rosin, 25, was the Mets' selection in last December's Rule 5 Draft (from the Phillies). He was immediately traded to the Dodgers for cash before being claimed off waivers by Texas in late March. Rosin made his big league debut with the Rangers this season, allowing three runs on six hits and a walk with three strikeouts in four innings of work. The former fourth-round pick has a 4.00 career ERA in the minor leagues to go along with solid ratios of 8.3 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. Prior to his selection in the Rule 5 Draft, Rosin had never appeared in a game above the Double-A level.

