Archives for March 2015

International Notes: July 2 Market, Cuba

By Jeff Todd | March 2, 2015 at 7:51pm CDT

Hector Olivera and Yadier Alvarez are the two biggest names to watch on the international market at present, but let’s take a look at some other notes while we wait to learn more on their situations:

Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs has a wide-ranging round-up of the latest from the upcoming July 2nd signing period, which has clarified somewhat with Yoan Moncada now in agreement with the Red Sox. Noting that slot money has gone up by about five to seven percent, as Baseball America’s Ben Badler details, McDaniel says that about five clubs seem to be on track to exceed their bonus allotments and “many more” will attempt to spend to their max.
Uncertainty in U.S.-Cuban politics is dampening some teams’ interest in going over their pools and incurring severe spending restrictions for two years, per McDaniel. Depending upon how things progress, that might mean missing out on a sudden influx of talent. Nevertheless, it appears that overall spending will see significant increases; indeed, as McDaniel tweets, one team that he does not mention in his post is already believed to have about $7.5MM set to go out to six players — none of whom will be among the highest-earning prospects.
McDaniel provides a ton of detail on July 2nd prospects, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is said to be likely heading to the Blue Jays for a bonus that will top $4MM. Also expected to go over the $4MM mark are young slugger Jhailyn Ortiz, who is expected to land with the Phillies, and shortstop Wander Javier, whom the Twins are believed to be line to sign.
While there is nothing new on Alvarez, Badler does explain that his situation — and that of fellow young righty Vladimir Gutierrez — could shape the future of Cuban amateur talent. Alvarez could test MLB’s historical unwillingness to grant exceptions to its timely registration rule, given the fact that he could not do so while in Cuba, and that would presumably set the precedent moving forward. A similar situation holds for Gutierrez, who could face an exceedingly long delay if he cannot establish residency in a third country in relatively short order.

Understanding Pre-Arbitration Salaries

By Jeff Todd | March 2, 2015 at 6:22pm CDT

While the 2014-15 arbitration process is complete — final results can be found here — you may have noticed that agreements between non-free agent players and teams are still being reported and announced. These deals are being arrived at with players who own 40-man spots but remain shy of the service requirements to reach arbitration eligibility. (I.e., they have less than three years of service and did not qualify as Super Two players.)

Generally, MLBTR does not cover these deals. Not only are there are dozens per team, but they have minimal bearing on the broader market. The reason is simple: the collective bargaining agreement stipulates that teams may simply renew pre-arb players at the league minimum (or any other desired level) if agreement on a price cannot be reached, leaving no obligation for teams to pay more and affording scarcely any leverage to the player. In other words, there is not much to see or think about.

But, as with most things, there are exceptions. Last February, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reported that the Rockies had drawn the ire of some agents for only spending a few thousand dollars above the minimum. MLBTR’s Zach Links proceeded to undertake a deep dive on the subject, explaining how different teams use varying types of formulas to arrive at pre-arb salaries — many of which are informed by some combination of service time, playing time, and performance.

Sometimes teams choose to go well above the required levels of pay. The two most notable examples — Ryan Howard’s final pre-arb salary of $900K and Mike Trout’s $1MM pact last year — were followed by extensions. It is difficult to know whether those shows of good faith helped pave the way to longer-term deals, but the teams involved (the Phillies and Angels, respectively) obviously were motivated to go above and beyond for players who were coming off of MVP or MVP-type seasons.

In some cases, players and teams are unable to agree upon a deal, leading the team to simply renew the player at its desired value. This is in large part a symbolic matter, though as Zach and fellow MLBTR writer Steve Adams learned last year, the Astros have taken a $5K deduction (as against the team’s offer) when renewing pre-arb players who declined to reach agreement at the team’s price.

Inability to agree upon a price is but one aspect of a team’s relationship with a player, of course, but tension in the pre-arb process is certainly one possible outcome. Interestingly, Trout had his contract renewed without agreement in the season before his huge pre-arb payday, with his agent blasting the team at the time. The sides were ultimately able to come together on a nine-figure deal, with the prior years’ salaries constituting an element of the jockeying in the lead-up to that contract.

It remains to be seen whether this year will feature any particularly interesting cases. But it is worth noting that several of 2014’s top performers — Corey Kluber of the Indians, Anthony Rendon of the Nationals, and Sonny Gray of the Athletics come to mind — remain shy of arbitration eligibility.

AL Notes: Haber, Street, Ludwick, Orioles

By Steve Adams | March 2, 2015 at 5:01pm CDT

The White Sox announced today that they have promoted Jeremy Haber, who was previously assistant to general manager Rick Hahn and will now bear the title of assistant GM. The 31-year-old Haber led negotiations on the team’s five-year, $21MM extension with Jose Quintana last offseason, says Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune (on Twitter), and he also leads salary arbitration negotiations. CSN Chicago’s Dan Hayes profiled Haber last offseason, noting an impressive educational background but little experience in the baseball world. Haber has a B.A. in political science from Brown as well as an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School and a J.D. from Harvard Law School. Haber was initially hired as an intern with the Red Sox after a series of blind emails to teams in search of a front office opportunity, and he’s since helped in the White Sox’ hiring of hitting coach Todd Steverson in addition to making player acquisition recommendations for Hahn and the rest of the Chicago front office.

The D-Backs’ Veteran Trade Candidates

By Steve Adams | March 2, 2015 at 2:51pm CDT

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweeted this morning that the Diamondbacks have let other clubs know they’re willing to move Trevor Cahill, Cody Ross or Aaron Hill in trades, although that tweet prompted a denial from GM Dave Stewart that he’s had any actual conversations on that trio of veterans (Twitter link).

We can debate the semantics here, but conventional wisdom would seem to suggest that three expensive veterans that have underperformed for a last place team whose president/CEO has previously stated that his club may get “creative” to trim payroll are certainly candidates to be moved. The D-Backs showing a willingness to move them would hardly be a surprise, nor would it be surprising were Stewart’s comments genuine as well. However, the reason for the lack of conversations would likely be a lack of interest, and Stewart or the D-Backs may ultimately prefer to spin it in a different fashion.

What the D-Backs have on their hands are three formerly productive players that are compensated at levels which don’t reflect their recent performance. That’s not to say that none of the three has value, however, should Arizona show a willingness to absorb some salary to grease the wheels on a potential trade. Let’s look at each player and try to determine a few fits.

Trevor Cahill: Somewhat surprisingly, Cahill is still just 27 years old (he turned 27 yesterday, in fact). The right-hander is owed $12.3MM before he’s eligible for free agency next offseason, but his contract does contain a pair of club options at $13MM and $13.5MM. Cahill, until the 2014 season, was generally accepted as a ground-ball inducing machine and a perfectly serviceable mid-rotation arm. From 2010-13, he pitched to a 3.72 ERA (4.09 FIP) in 751 innings, and he’d settled in as a 200-inning horse before injuries struck in 2013. Cahill was struck in the hip by a line-drive that season and missed about six weeks, and a shoulder strain ended his season shortly after.

If he looks healthy and at all like his old self in Spring Training, a team with a need in the rotation could do worse than gambling on him, should the D-Backs kick in some of the remaining guarantee. There’s always the chance that he could regain his form in 2015 and give an acquiring club a rotation piece that can be controlled for another two seasons. Would a team with questionable pitching depth like the Phillies or Rockies be willing to take that kind of risk? The Phillies are rebuilding, but Cahill’s still young, and they have the financial wherewithal to make it happen. The Rangers’ back-of-the-rotation options are questionable (but also plentiful), and the Tigers lack depth beyond their currently projected five starters.

Cody Ross: The 34-year-old Ross is owed $9.5MM in 2015 and has a $1MM buyout on an option of the same value for the 2016 season. Hip surgery and a calf strain kept Ross off the field for much of last season, but he’s always handled left-handed pitching well, as evidenced by a career .294/.360/.557 batting line against them.

The Blue Jays just added Dayan Viciedo on a minor league deal, but if he struggles in Spring Training and Ross looks healthy, perhaps they’d prefer Ross in the event that the Snakes take on half of his remaining salary or so. The Indians were also interested in Viciedo on a minor league deal, so it stands to reason that a healthy Ross may have some appeal as well, if the price was right. The same could be said for the Reds. Again, the D-Backs may need to eat $5MM+ to make any of these scenarios realistic.

Aaron Hill: Hill will turn 33 later this month and is one season removed from an excellent .291/.356/.492 batting line in a half season’s work. Hill showed no ill effects of the broken hand he suffered early in 2013 upon returning from the disabled list, but that only makes his 2014 drop-off even more puzzling; Hill stayed healthy for most of the season but still mustered just a .244/.287/.367 line in 137 games. And, he dislocated a finger on his other hand at the end of the year.

Hill is the toughest to move because his remaining $24MM over two years is the largest commitment. I don’t know that Arizona would want to eat the type of salary that would be necessary to move him, so it might be in the team’s best interest to, rather than absorb $12MM to move him, just pay him for the first half and hope for a rebound. Multiple teams have been connected to second base upgrades this winter without pulling the trigger on a deal, and there figure to be additional teams in need this summer. The A’s, Orioles, Angels and White Sox could all conceivably find themselves with needs as the season progresses, and one injury to a currently healthy player could open the door for a summer trading partner, if Hill is able to demonstrate production closer to his previous heights than his 2014 decline.

Current MLB Free Agents

By Steve Adams and Tim Dierkes | March 2, 2015 at 12:37pm CDT

Below is MLBTR’s most updated list of MLB players that are currently unsigned. Given the significant numbers of players in baseball, we limit the players that we track to those with recent MLB experience — typically 20 innings pitched or 50 plate appearances in the current or previous season.

If you see any errors or omissions, please contact us. To see who represents these players, check out MLBTR’s Agency Database.

Updated 4-24-17

Catchers

Steve Clevenger (31)
Dioner Navarro (33)

First Basemen

Justin Morneau (36)
Brett Wallace (30)

Second Basemen

Kelly Johnson (35)
Brett Lawrie (27)

Third Basemen

Brett Lawrie (27)

Shortstops

Alexei Ramirez (35)
Jimmy Rollins (38)

Left Fielders

Coco Crisp (37)
Alejandro De Aza (33)
Jeff Francoeur (33)
Jonny Gomes (36)
Cole Gillespie (33)
Angel Pagan (35)
Nolan Reimold (33) — Presently playing independent ball

Center Fielders

Alejandro De Aza (33)
Sam Fuld (35)

Right Fielders

Marlon Byrd (39)

Designated Hitters

Billy Butler (31)
Jonny Gomes (36)
Justin Morneau (36)

Starting Pitchers

Henderson Alvarez (27)
John Danks (32)
Colby Lewis (37)
Tim Lincecum (33)
Jarrod Parker (28)
Jake Peavy (36)
Alfredo Simon (36)
Ryan Vogelsong (39)
Jerome Williams (35)

Right-Handed Relievers

Joba Chamberlain (31)
Jim Henderson (34)
Luke Hochevar (33)
Jonathan Papelbon (36)
Cory Rasmus (29)
Chien-Ming Wang (37)
Jerome Williams (35)

Left-Handed Relievers

Chris Capuano (38)
Dana Eveland (33)
Charlie Furbush (30)
Paco Rodriguez (26)

Cot’s Baseball Contracts was used in the creation of this post.

NL Central Notes: Wainwright, Holliday, Pirates, Leake

By Steve Adams | March 2, 2015 at 11:10am CDT

Adam Wainwright returned to the mound today and threw a 30- to 40-pitch bullpen session without issue, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Wainwright gave Cardinals fans a bit of a scare last week when he had to return to St. Louis to see a specialist for pain in his abdomen, but he was diagnosed with a strain and merely prescribed some rest. Manager Mike Matheny said his ace will first have to face hitters in a live batting practice session before getting into a game, but he didn’t give reporters a timeline on that next step.

AL Central Notes: Hunter, Twins, Hanrahan, Aviles

By Steve Adams | March 2, 2015 at 8:55am CDT

Torii Hunter spoke with Bob Nightengale of USA Today about his return to the Twins and an interesting aspiration that he has in his post-playing days. The 39-year-old Hunter would eventually like to not only work in the Twins’ front office, but take the reins as general manager of the team. “I really want to get into that front office, make some changes, and build a team that I want to build,” Hunter explained. “I’d love to learn everything from [Twins GM Terry Ryan]. He’ll be a mentor. One day, that’s my goal, to be GM of the Twins.” Nightengale spoke with Ryan about the idea and writes that Hunter “will have a door waiting for him,” though Nightengale writes that Ryan also advised Hunter not to rush any decisions about retirement. Hunter said he’s considered hanging it up next winter, though he very much sounds like a good year at the plate would leave him open to a return in Minnesota. “…unless I hit .300, then I’m going nowhere,” said Hunter, who has batted .301 over the past three seasons. Hunter also has interest in working in TV, he said, and he spoke with Nightengale at length about his prayers for friend Josh Hamilton.

A bit more from Nightengale’s piece and the AL Central…

Nightengale reports that the Rangers made Hunter a one-year, $8MM offer to play near his Dallas home, and the division-rival Royals offered Hunter one year and $8.5MM with a player option. Hunter, however, ultimately decided he wanted to return to Minnesota, and Nightengale adds that Billy Butler’s three-year, $30MM contract with Oakland “raised the stakes” for Hunter (presumably implying that Butler’s deal caused Hunter to aim for a higher annual value). Hunter said a 90-minute phone call with Ryan, in which the GM explained that he wants Hunter in Minnesota “forever,” impacted him a great deal as well.
Tigers right-hander Joel Hanrahan is traveling to Texas to see Dr. Keith Meister about persistent elbow problems that have slowed his comeback attempt, writes MLive.com’s Chris Iott. Hanrahan, who hasn’t thrown since Feb. 22, tells Iott that he’s past the point of frustration and wants to get answers as to why his elbow still is not working properly. Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press also spoke with Hanrahan, who told him that at times, it feels like bones in his arm are rubbing together, and at other times, like his biceps is being pinched (Twitter link). Hanrahan missed all of the 2014 season and most of the 2013 season recovering from Tommy John and flexor tendon surgery.
Mike Aviles’ outgoing personality and vocal leadership abilities factored into the Indians’ decision to exercise his $3.5MM option this offseason, writes Zack Meisel of Cleveland.com. Manager Terry Francona told Meisel: “We told him that in our one-on-one. That’s part of his responsibility. We love what he does as a player, because he plays all over the place and he can play every position professionally. But when he’s not playing, he needs to be in a leadership role. We need that out of him. He understands that.”

Quick Hits: International Draft, Viciedo, Rollins

By charliewilmoth | March 1, 2015 at 11:20pm CDT

MLBPA executive director Tony Clark is not yet willing to endorse an international draft, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports writes. “The idea of a worldwide anything or an international anything in a lot of ways sounds great in theory,” Clark says. He adds, though, that “to simply take a system that appears to work — and I say ’appears’ purposely — appears to work in one place and plop it down in another is a dangerous proposition.” Clark suggests that the draft seems to work reasonably well in the U.S. and Canada, where players have high school degrees or even some college, and can therefore approach the draft from an educated perspective. Latin American players, though, often sign at much younger ages. Clark does add, though, that an international draft will be a “topic of discussion.” Here’s more from around the game.

The Blue Jays’ minor-league deals for Dayan Viciedo and Johan Santana aren’t risky, but those two players could cost over $9MM with incentives if the Jays do roster them. With that in mind, MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm wonders why the Jays signed Viciedo and Santana (who presumably have some chance of making the team, and therefore earning their big-league salaries) rather than pursuing bullpen help. The Blue Jays made some big moves early in the offseason when they acquired Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson, but have been quiet lately, even though their bullpen is a bit thin. A cheap deal for someone like Burke Badenhop or Joba Chamberlain might have made sense, Chisholm suggests.
On a related note, Blue Jays manager John Gibbons doesn’t seem overly enthused about the Viciedo addition, John Lott of the National Post writes. “He was available,” says Gibbons. “He’s got some big-league time in. Been successful, to a certain extent. Bring him to camp, see what he is.” Viciedo will play first base and third base in camp, as well as left field.
Rule 5 pick David Rollins is excited to compete for a job as the second lefty out of the Mariners’ bullpen behind Charlie Furbush, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com writes. Manager Lloyd McClendon doesn’t want a lefty specialist, but rather someone who can work multiple innings. That role might work for Rollins, who started 12 games last year for Double-A Corpus Christi in the Astros’ system.

NL Notes: Gordon, Burgos, Stewart, Preller

By charliewilmoth | March 1, 2015 at 9:25pm CDT

Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon is a better bet than projection systems indicate, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues. Steamer and PECOTA foresee regression for Gordon next season, but Rosenthal points to examples of late-blooming speedy players like Michael Bourn, Shane Victorino and Tom Goodwin as evidence that Gordon (who didn’t start playing baseball until he was a junior in high school) ought to be able to retain some of the improvements he made in the first half of last season. Rosenthal also suggests being traded from Los Angeles to Miami might be good for Gordon, in that he’ll get to work with top infield instructor Perry Hill with the Marlins. Here are more notes from the National League.

Diamondbacks prospect Enrique Burgos’ current GM, Dave Stewart, was also his agent before the Dbacks hired him last September. Burgos credits Stewart for helping him improve last season, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. Burgos walked 50 batters in 46 1/3 innings with Class A South Bend in 2013, but he took a new attitude with him to Class A+ Visalia last year and halved his walk rate while posting 13.7 K/9 in 54 2/3 innings of relief. “Before, a lot of people would tell me that I looked so nice on the mound,” says Burgos. “But with the stuff that I have, I can’t be nice. That was one of the things [Stewart] told me. You have to think you’re the man up there, instead of being so nice.”
Fellow GMs thought new Padres executive A.J. Preller would be aggressive, but his ultra-busy offseason took the rest of baseball by surprise, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. The fact that the Padres hired Preller in August gave him time to figure out how best to remake his team, his former boss and Rangers GM Jon Daniels says. “I think the fact that he got in early gave him the chance to truly evaluate what they had and make this decision that people didn’t anticipate,” says Daniels. “I think the assumption was they might trade some of their pitching and build the system, especially with his background in the amateur markets. That’s where I give him a lot of credit. He said, ‘No, we can win right now,’ and did it in a creative fashion.”

MLBTR Originals

By edcreech | March 1, 2015 at 7:54pm CDT

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast featured host Jeff Todd discussing the Red Sox’s signing of Yoan Moncada and the rest of the Cuban market with MLB.com national reporter Jesse Sanchez. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk then joined Jeff to review this past offseason’s free agent signings with a focus on the White Sox and Pirates. A new edition of MLB Trade Rumors Podcast will be released every Thursday and can be accessed on iTunes, SoundCloud, and Stitcher.
Steve Adams spoke with Giants Assistant GM Bobby Evans, Braves Assistant GM John Coppolella, and Angels Assistant GM Matt Klentak about a club’s “responsibility” in the arbitration process.
Tim Dierkes listed the position of MLBTR’s top 2016 free agents on in-season extension talks.
Jeff named eight potential destinations for Rafael Soriano. More than a quarter of MLBTR readers see the Blue Jays signing the right-handed reliever.
Jeff was the first to report Wily Mo Pena agreed to a one-year contract with NPB’s Rakuten Eagles.
Steve hosted this week’s live chat.
Zach Links assembled the best of the baseball blogosphere for you in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.

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