Howie Kendrick seems something of an underappreciated player, perhaps because he has not racked up eye-popping counting stats in recent seasons. But we already know that teams value him rather highly.
After all, over the winter the Dodgers flipped just-acquired top-100 pitching prospect Andrew Heaney to the Angels to acquire one year of Kendrick — at a very reasonable, but hardly cheap, $9.5MM salary. And Los Angeles cleared out young middle infielder Dee Gordon, the incumbent at second, as part of its multi-faceted strategy.
True, Gordon has been nothing short of spectacular for the Marlins. He does carry an unsustainable .433 BABIP, but he’s also continued to lower his strikeout rate, run like crazy, and put up much-improved defensive metrics.
But the Dodgers also have received what they hoped for out of Kendrick. Over 178 plate appearances on the year, he has slashed .293/.348/.445 — a slight bump up over his career numbers.
If you had stopped the record after 2012, you might view Kendrick as an average hitter who had one big year under his belt (2011). But he has since settled in as a clearly above-average bat, compiling a 117 OPS+ since the start of the 2013 season.
In that sense, this year has been a continuation. But Kendrick has also showed signs of improvement. After carrying a walk rate of about 5% for much of his career, Kendrick has earned free passes at a better-than-7% clip over the last two seasons, all while maintaining a 16.3% strikeout rate that has improved his overall mark.
Combined, his BB/K rate sits at a career-best .45, just exceeding his prior personal best from last year. Better yet, he’s done that while also managing to push his ISO back up over the .150 mark for the first time since that strong 2011 campaign — a marked improvement on his personal-low .104 ISO from last year.
Kendrick’s .336 BABIP is on the high side, but actually falls just below his historic marks. While Baseball Info Solutions numbers say that he has generated less hard and more soft contact than in recent years, Kendrick nevertheless carries a 28.1% line-drive rate that exceeds any of his end-of-year rates from seasons prior.
It isn’t all good news for Kendrick, of course. After a four-year run of positive UZR metrics, Kendrick has slipped just barely into the negative. And Defensive Runs Saved has him at a more troubling -5 runs saved to date. It’s early, of course, but that certainly bears watching. Likewise, Kendrick is just two-for-four in stolen base attempts this year, though his game has never relied much on the basepaths (he has swiped 14 bags four times, at a 71.9% success rate).
All said, while he hasn’t exactly transformed himself, it’s reasonable to argue that Kendrick has solidified his status as a firmly above-average second baseman in his age-31 season. But how does he stack up against the rest of the expected market?
Advances against his likely free agent competition, it seems, is where Kendrick’s value has increased the most. The most obvious and direct comparison is to Daniel Murphy of the Mets, who is younger (not yet two months removed from his 30th birthday) but carries a below-league-average .263/.316/.381 batting line. There’s plenty of time for that to change — Murphy’s .271 BABIP will probably rise and he has struck out in just 8% of his plate appearances, a market improvement — but Kendrick is gaining ground at present, and has always looked like the surer defensive option of the two.
Other players who teams will weigh alongside Kendrick have also generated some cause for concern in the first quarter of 2015. Ben Zobrist, who turns 34 tomorrow, missed a month with knee surgery and has rated (rather uncharacteristically) as a below-replacement-level player. Once again, it’s far too soon to write him off, and his track record of outstanding overall value speaks for itself. But there’s little question that Zobrist has come back to earth in the early going. Likewise, while Asdrubal Cabrera has suddenly posted excellent UZR ratings at shortstop in a small sample, his offensive production has suffered quite a bit.
Clubs eyeing an upgrade at second will surely look to that group, but it is possible that all — including Kendrick — could factor in at third base as well. While I won’t pretend to know whether he profiles well there defensively, the hot corner market is shaping up to be rather underwhelming with names like David Freese, Juan Uribe, and Casey McGehee leading the way.
In terms of what kind of guarantee we might expect, direct comps are somewhat scarce. But Kendrick seems a good bet to top Omar Infante’s pre-2014 deal with the Royals. Coming off of a strong platform year, but carrying a history of production clearly inferior to that of Kendrick, Infante took down four years and just over $30MM entering his age-32 campaign. Though it’s far too early to be precise, a contract on the order of Chase Headley’s (four years and $52MM) seems a reasonable target for Kendrick — though he has some room to build on that as well.
There have been whispers that the Dodgers could look to extend Kendrick, but that has always seemed questionable with the club’s dizzying array of options at second and third. But a qualifying offer is definitely in play, and entering the market weighed down by draft compensation could have some effect on Kendrick’s earning capacity.
Being the most desirable player at a given position has its obvious advantages, and Kendrick ought to have no shortage of theoretical landing spots. His long-time former team, the Angels, could be in play, as might the Yankees, White Sox, Nationals, Mets, and Padres. It is possible to imagine scenarios where other clubs — the Royals, Rangers, Athletics, and Braves come to mind — could consider pursuit.
The bottom line is that Kendrick appears increasingly well-positioned for next year’s free agent market. While he will undoubtedly be overshadowed in a deep and talented class, Kendrick stands out among his direct competitors and seems headed for a significant payday.
I think he goes to Yankees in off season for Five Years 15/16 Million a Year.
“But there’s little question that Zobrist has come back to earth in the early going.” – I’d question using a 14 game sample to make that comment.
Injury is included in that assessment. Combined with age, which we obviously knew going in.
Chase Headley in the 4 years leading up to FA: 16.0 WAR
Kendrick in the last 4 full seasons (not including 2015) 16.2 WAR.
I’d imagine that Kendrick would land something lightly better than Headley because hes more offensively advanced. 6/90M to one of the LA teams?
Angels seem to be happy with Johnny Giavotella so far this year. We’ll see how he does the rest of the year.
Depending on the budget, I could see Kendrick returning to the Angels. Although it appears from talk around LA that the Dodger FO is very happy with Kendrick, so they may want to pay him to stay even with all the young inf possibilities.
I think LAD will resign him if they want to. Surely Kendrick would be open to staying in LA.
It would be nice to bring back Kendrick but I think Giavotella is doing a great job, I have the nationals signing kendrick. He would be the final piece to solve in the infield.
Howie’s going home…yes the Ray’s hand out the largest deal in team history…(what ever that would be idk)…too bring home Howie…..
The potential contract not withstanding, the one position the Rays don’t need is 2B. While none are quite as good as Kendrick, the Rays have a solid group in Forsythe, Franklin, Beckham and Brett who all profile at 2B as their best position.
Kendrick is a lot like Garrett Anderson was to the Angels for years – Anderson was overshadowed by other Angel players such as Daren Erstad and Jim Edmonds. After years and years of being a solid performer with no fanfare, people woke up to just how important a player he was to the team, and how solid he was on and off the field.
Kendrick has been a consistent professional hitter for 10 years now – usually hitting between .280-.300. Only 31, he can play for quite a while. Can hit him anywhere 1 through 6 in the lineup and he produces. Not a great 2B but gets the job done. He had trouble when they had him play some 1B years ago, doubt that he has the quick reactions to play 3B.
Interesting note – Kendrick played as a DP partner with SS Erick Aybar in the minors back to AA, and they both came up to the Angels in 2006, playing together through 2014. Seldom see that sort of thing anymore.
That is interesting. I recall him coming up around the same time Dallas McPherson and Jeff Mathis were on the come up, projected to be the new wave of talent. That didn’t go so well, but at least Kendrick/Aybar have had lengthy and productive careers.
I still bristle at the rumor during the off-season/spring training.
I would have traded Wei Yei Chen for Howie Kendrick in a heartbeat.
He would have been a perfect fit for the Orioles.
Quality at bats
Steady fielder.
Good Player.
Why the Orioles didn’t do it (assuming it was true and I am) is beyond me.
Did Baltimore say no to that deal? Was it even on the table? I’d take 6 years of Heaney over 1 year of Chen.
The Orioles likely would have had to add another piece and that’s why they balked.
I had thought Kendrick would hit better this year, having Puig (pre-injury) and Gonzalez around him, but then again he had Pujols and Trout also last year. Not sure where he hit in that lineup. I figured he’d see a lot of good pitches to hit this year. Dodgers seemed to have solid 2B over the years, quietly doing a great job. Ellis, Gordon, Carroll to name a few.
The Headley signing, so far, looks like an overpay for a player who resembles the 2013/14 Padres Headley, and not the more revitalized 2014 Yankees Headley. Do you really want to spend that type of money on a 30+ inflelder? Kendrick is solid and useful, but I wonder when the market is going to turn.
Headley will be fine. He’s being paid $13,000,000 a year. He’ll be league average or better.
He’s been actually below replacement level this year. 13 million just doesn’t buy what it used to.
He’s replacement level right now. It’s been 50 games and UZR fluctuates like crazy in small samples. His defense has kind of lagged to start the year, but there’s no reason not to expect a rebound to at least average, if not better. He’s been an above average defender at 3B for his career.
Counting stats aside, his value will be underappreciated among mainstream fans, but he’s a really really really good baseball player. There’s a lot of unseen things he does really well.
I have him going to the nationals
I see him signing for 4 years, $72,000,000 or 5 years, $80,000,000. Where- I’m not sure yet.