Dallas Keuchel will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and is under team control through at least the 2018 season, but the lefty tells Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle that his agent, Darek Braunecker of Frontline Athlete Management, has discussed a multi-year deal with Houston. For his part, Keuchel is very open to remaining in Houston long-term. As he tells Drellich:
“[Houston] is all I’ve known, and it’s where I want to be. I know we’re in a great position for the next probably five, 10 years… it’s all about winning. Me personally, it’s not about the dollar amount. … With that being said, it’s got to be something that’s fair and that’s right for both parties. I’m not trying to break the bank. I’m just out here to have fun and pitch and do the best I can.”
The 27-year-old Keuchel had a breakout season in 2014 and has emerged as one of the American League’s top pitchers with an elite 2015 season that features a 2.37 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 63.1 percent ground-ball rate in 178 2/3 innings. As Drellich notes, comparable pitchers (at least, in terms of service time) such as Wade Miley and Lance Lynn signed away their three arbitration seasons last winter for $19.25MM and $22MM, respectively. Keuchel, however, has a much stronger two-year platform heading into arbitration and could surpass both of those figures for his arb years.
It stands to reason that the Astros would want to secure at least one, if not two or three free agent years for Keuchel, which, in my mind, would need to be valued in the $15-17MM range. However, from the player’s point of view, signing away precious free agent years isn’t as desirable, even if it’s for a relatively sizable sum. Keuchel’s best chance at a $100MM+ contract would be to hit the open market heading into his age-31 season, as he’s currently projected to do. He also has a strong arb case this winter based on his excellent 2014-15 work, so he can reasonably bank on a pair of life-changing paydays in the next two offseasons even if his 2016 campaign doesn’t go as well as 2014-15. Keuchel’s comments about not breaking the bank do offer some hope, however, that he could look to set some kind of precedent for extensions for players with three to four years of service time, as opposed to maximizing his arb salaries and signing a nine-figure contract in the 2018-19 offseason.
There’s also some logic behind the scenario in which Keuchel signs a three-year deal that locks in only his arb seasons. Keuchel would secure his first fortune and still be positioned to hit the free agent heading into his age-31 season. The Astros, in turn, would gain cost certainty over a pitcher whose arb prices could escalate at an abnormally high rate due to his status as one of the American League’s best arms and a potential Cy Young candidate.
Drellich also spoke to right-hander Collin McHugh, who said that he, too, is interested in signing a long-term deal with Houston, although no talks have taken place between the Astros and McHugh’s agents at Moye Sports Associates. McHugh, however, has one less year of service time and won’t be arbitration eligible until next winter. McHugh, another somewhat surprising breakout pitcher in the Astros’ rotation, has pitched to a 3.36 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 in 313 2/3 innings since being claimed off waivers in the 2013-14 offseason.
Also of note, Drellich reports that the Astros plan to make a run at re-signing Houston native and July trade acquisition Scott Kazmir this winter, though there have unsurprisingly been no talks at this point, as Kazmir is intent on testing the market.
The only thing about a guy like Keuchel is he doesn’t have great stuff. If he would lose his command for a period of time, it could get really bad. However, teams still pay guys who don’t throw very hard pretty well.
Considering the first 3 years of an extension would be arb years, I think we can value them are 30-40M? Put a 15-20M price tag on his FA years and you come out to about a 7/126Mish deal? Would work for both sides I’d think.
Every team needs #3-4 types tho is the thing and why both the Cards and Boston didn’t mind locking up arbitration years to a single FA team option year at between 6-12m. It’s how the market is now.
These guys provide generally solid innings, give solid starts inbetween those, are fairly young and are of better quality in general to what was considered #3-4 guys, like Joe Blanton and John Lannon several years back.
That’s basically free agent money for a player they already control for three seasons. Valuing his arb at even $30MM (let alone 40) would be aggressive. Even Kershaw’s first two arb seasons only cost $19MM, and Keuchel doesn’t have that type of history. I’d think something in the mid- to upper-$20MMs for the arb years.
$20MM per free agent year (or $21.5-24MM, as you have it in the above scenario) when he’s three years from the market is too steep. Kluber’s free agent year in his extension, for instance, was valued at $13MM, and he was coming off an AL Cy Young.
Kluber was facing a 500k guarantee since he was still pre-arb and being asked to forgoe something like a $95m contract (Shields’ age, much less track record, much better peak, less wear) 4 years in the future while Keuchel is facing something like $6m in arb and is being asked to forgo like a $175m contract (Lester’s age, similar peak, less track record, less wear) 3 years from now. They are, very, very different cases. (Also, bb-ref says Kluber’s FA year goes up to $17m with incentives which I assume he expects to reach even if they’re not guaranteed.)
You raise a good point on the limitation Kluber was facing if he made it to free agency, given his age. I don’t think we have enough data to draw a meaningful line from Keuchel to Lester though. I mean, Lester himself would have gotten way less if his performance didn’t improve dramatically in his contract year. I agree that Keuchel’s ceiling could be a lot higher because of the two-year age difference, but his general career uncertainty isn’t much less than Kluber’s was. Keuchel still needs to stay good and healthy for 3+ additional seasons to get fully paid.
Anyway, I think Steve’s point in mentioning Kluber (we talked about this offline before he did the post) is that if Kluber was guaranteed $13MM for a FA year upon signing with two years service, $15-17MM per FA year for Keuchel in signing with three seems reasonable.
Given the choice of having him at 3/$30-40MM or 7/$126MM, I would take the former. He’ll be 31 before the start of the 2019 season, there’s no reason to tack four more years at a high rate on top of that. There’s virtually no upside for the Astros on that.
Signing extensions is an exchange that is supposed to benefit both sides: give the player financial security (and therefore protect against injury and regression), in exchange for giving the team a potential discount for production. I would assume that the Astros would want something more like 5 or 6 years at $70MM or so. Then again, I have no idea except that 7/126 is way too high.
You should check the meaning of “latter.”
Sorry, I’d originally typed it the other way, then switched it without fixing the latter/former part. Thanks for the tone, though.
I think you meant that you would take the former, not the latter. Former means first, latter means last.
I did mean that, haha. Thanks, Ray.
It’s easy to tell him to play on 1 year arb deals till he hits free agency. It’s hard to convince him of that when that huge contract is put in front of him though
Agreed, which is why I think you see three-year deals like Lynn’s that don’t extend team control, and why Kershaw, Frazier, Fowler, etc. take two-year deals to buy out their first couple arb years and bank some money.
Keuchel in particular is an interesting case, because he’s going to be having crazy numbers put in front of him, when 18 months ago he was just hoping to stick on a big league roster for a season. I have to think that for guys who never expected to receive these types of offers, it’s more tempting to take the money.
Although, I suppose you could argue the flip side and say that Keuchel might never have expected to make even $5MM in his career, and now he’ll clear that in one trip through arb, so why not bet on himself?
Am I the only one who’s kind of sick of hearing statements like this? Just about every player in the history of sports has said this.
“This is a great organization and city, and I want to spend the rest of my career here. Winning is more important to me than money.”
Then, a week later, the worst team in the league offers a nickel more and he’s on the first flight to join them. I understand these guys have to give the PC answers but I’m starting to see through it.
People complain no matter what they say. If he came out and said he was looking for whatever got him the most money, people would criticize that.
Also, when a top player says things like this it creates more pressure on the team to keep the player, even if the player really isn’t willing to give a discount.
I’m really surprised that players can tell a difference where they are most of the time….considering how much time they spend on planes and hotels and living in gated communities. It’s pretty rarified air. They’ll see a city in ways that most could only dream of.
Don’t do it Dallas. You better just take those nice arbitration figures and wait out the big contract you’ll get when you’re 31.