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Archives for October 2015

Free Agent Notes: Lee, Cueto, Gordon, O’Day

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Korean first baseman Dae-ho Lee, who is currently with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, could draw interest from Major League teams if he turns down his 2016 player option, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick notes (links to Twitter). The right-handed hitter will turn 34 next June, so he’s a good bit older than some other international free agents we’ve heard about, but Lee’s .282/.364/.524 batting line and 31 homers in 2015 are nonetheless impressive. Lee has enough service time that he is exempt from the posting process. In other words, if he turns down the option, he could jump right into a free agent class of first basemen that’s currently headlined by Chris Davis and Korean star Byung-ho Park.

A few more notes on some upcoming free agents…

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post looks at the postseason’s impact on the price tag for free agents Johnny Cueto, Yoenis Cespedes, Ben Zobrist, Alex Gordon and Daniel Murphy. Relaying some chatter from executives with whom he’s spoken, Sherman has heard some liken Cueto to James Shields a year ago. Shields hit the open market with higher expectations than the four years and $75MM he ultimately landed, though that, in my eyes, is still too low a price for Cueto, who is younger with a more dominant track record and no qualifying offer attached to his name. More surprising is the lack of support for Gordon, who “could” get to somewhere north of $75MM over five years with the benefit of open-market bidding, Sherman writes. A five-year $75MM contract for Gordon seems to me to be very much on the low end of the spectrum. While others at MLBTR are more bullish on Gordon than I am, I still think he’ll end up much closer to, if not north of $100MM as a free agent. Sherman also suggests a contract in the four-year, $68MM range as a possibility for Zobrist despite his advanced age.
  • Fans shouldn’t be dismissive of recent suggestions that the Red Sox could make a play for Gordon this winter, writes WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Pursuing Gordon is an idea that “has at least been considered” by the Red Sox’ inner circle, he writes, noting that Gordon’s glove would maintain an elite outfield defense in Boston and possibly allow the team to include Jackie Bradley in trade packages.
  • Free agency is looming around the corner and comes with significant ramifications for the Orioles, who could potentially lose Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, Matt Wieters, Darren O’Day, Gerardo Parra and Steve Pearce, writes the Baltimore Sun’s Dan Connolly. However, Connolly hears that the Orioles have had talks with many of those players, and agent Jeff Borris, who represents O’Day, told Connolly that the conversations he’s had with the Orioles won’t stop even with free agency nearing. “We’ve had ongoing discussions with Baltimore throughout the season and I plan on continuing to have ongoing discussions with Baltimore,” said Borris. “However, time is of the essence because free agency is right around the corner.” 

Free Agent Profile: Matt Wieters

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Once the game’s most-hyped prospect, switch-hitting catcher Matt Wieters has put in six years of Major League service with the Orioles.  After five-plus years as a very good, durable backstop, Wieters missed a year due to Tommy John surgery and played in 75 games this season.

MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore OriolesStrengths/Pros

Wieters is an above average hitter for a catcher.  In 2015, the average catcher hit .238/.302/.376 with a Weighted Runs Created Plus of 85.  Wieters hit .267/.319/.422 with a wRC+ of 100.  He displayed a league average bat, even though catchers generally hit significantly worse.  He has shown good pop, leading all catchers with 67 home runs from 2011-13.  Wieters made the All-Star team twice in that span, and again in 2014 after a 26-game hot start to that season.

Defensively, Wieters has been among the game’s best at preventing stolen bases.  The stat Stolen Base Runs Saved credits catchers for throwing out runners and preventing them from attempting to steal in the first place, and Wieters led all of baseball from 2011-13.  The simpler version of this is caught stealing percentage, and Wieters was among the top four qualified catchers in each of 2011-13 seasons.  Wieters has also been one of baseball’s best at blocking pitches.  He won Gold Glove awards in 2011 and ’12.

As with Justin Upton, it feels like Wieters may not have reached his ceiling.  The Orioles drafted Wieters fifth overall in 2007, and his 2009 big league debut was highly anticipated.  In 2008, Baseball America wrote that Wieters had “the makings of a legitimate star,” a switch-hitter with plus bat speed, good plate discipline and pitch recognition, and excellent defense including plus-plus arm strength.  He doesn’t turn 30 until May, and is easily the best free agent catcher.

Weaknesses/Cons

From 2011-13, Wieters caught 3,539 2/3 innings, the most in baseball.  The ability to catch more than 140 games per season would be considered a huge positive, but as Wieters heads into free agency, we have to question how many innings behind the plate he can handle for the next several years.  Wieters’ 2014 season ended on May 10th with elbow soreness, and he had Tommy John surgery in June of that year.  Though he was at one point on track to be ready for Opening Day, Wieters experienced elbow tendinitis in March and started the year on the DL.  His season debut came on June 5th.

From the day of Wieters’ season debut, he started at catcher for 55 of the team’s 109 games.  He battled a hamstring strain in August and a wrist injury in September.  Still, there was no point this season where Wieters was used like a regular catcher by the Orioles.  As Mark Brown of Camden Chat pointed out, he only caught on consecutive days four times this year.   He’s not a good enough hitter for significant time at DH or first base to be appealing as part of a long-term contract, as it was with Brian McCann.  In a given year, anywhere from 11-18 catchers get at least 900 innings behind the dish, and a team giving a multiyear pact to Wieters will need confidence he can do that.

Exploring the question of Wieters’ ability to stay behind the plate long-term, one must consider his massive size.  He is literally the only regular catcher in baseball history who is 6’5″ and 230 pounds.  Dropping the weight requirement to 220 gives a list of five total catchers (including Wieters himself).  One of those is Joe Mauer, who was done catching by age 31 due to a lengthy history of concussions as well as back and leg injuries.

Looking at Wieters’ pitch framing data at StatCorner, he’s below average at getting pitches outside of the zone called strikes for his pitchers.  The stat is called oStr%, and Wieters was the worst in baseball this year among those with a sample of 4,000 or more pitches.  He was below average at this key framing skill from 2012-14 as well.  Also, it’s unclear whether Wieters’ once-vaunted arm is as effective at preventing stolen bases.  He threw out 30.8% of attempted thieves this year, which would  have ranked eighth among qualifiers.

I believe Wieters will receive and turn down a qualifying offer from the Orioles, meaning signing him would require a team to forfeit its first eligible draft pick.  This could present an issue for a team like the Mariners, who probably wouldn’t want to give Wieters a decent-sized contract and also forfeit the 11th overall draft pick.

Personal

Wieters was born in Charleston, South Carolina and resides in Sarasota, Florida with his wife and son in the offseason.  According to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, Matt met his wife while attending Georgia Tech, and they also have a house in Atlanta.  Will Graves of the Associated Press called him a “stoic cornerstone” for the Orioles in 2013, and more recently Connolly wrote, “Wieters’ leadership, steady influence and professionalism has been immeasurable.”  Matt’s father, Richard, was a minor league pitcher for the Braves and White Sox, and as you’d expect, that sparked an interest in the game for Matt.  He remained humble despite huge hype coming out of college and in his minor league career.

Market

Interest in Wieters will vary based on his contract demands and whether he receives a qualifying offer.  I feel making a qualifying offer is a relatively easy “yes” for the Orioles, because he’d be worth $15.8MM on a one-year deal if he accepts.  But why would a 29-year-old catcher, the best free agent at his position, decline his first chance at an open-market multiyear deal without fully exploring the market first?  If all the multiyear offers are unacceptable, Wieters would probably be able to find a one-year deal worth close to $15.8MM in February or March.  In March 2014, Wieters’ agent, Scott Boras, told ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick in reference to Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, “Everybody talks about these players turning down these [one-year] qualifying offers like they’re village idiots. The reason is, they don’t want to be in the same position again next year. If I’m a good player, I’m going to take the prospect of free agency.”

If Wieters becomes a one-year deal guy late in the offseason, opportunistic teams will swoop in, and the door could re-open to the Orioles.  Before then, Boras needs to find a team that loves Wieters’ pedigree, and feels he can be a bargain on a multiyear deal if an offseason of normal rest brings back the durability he once had.  Clubs that could enter the market for a starting catcher include the Rangers, Nationals, Braves, White Sox, Mariners, Twins, Rockies, Angels, and Astros.  Of those nine teams, the Braves, White Sox, and Rockies have protected first round picks.  The White Sox have not historically been involved with a lot of Scott Boras’ free agents, but we can’t rule them out.  The Braves are a legitimate match.  Wieters grew up rooting for the Braves, his father pitched in their minor league system, and he starred at Georgia Tech.  Plus, former Oriole mainstay Nick Markakis joined the Braves last winter, and the team appears to have soured on young catcher Christian Bethancourt.  The Rockies have Nick Hundley in place for 2016, but could see Wieters as a long-term solution behind the plate.

The Nationals are an under-the-radar fit.  They were not happy with Wilson Ramos this year, according to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson, and the team’s management has a well-known strong relationship with Boras.  Meanwhile, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports says the Rangers could take a look at Wieters, but only if he does not receive a qualifying offer.  Surely Boras would appreciate the Orioles choosing not to make a qualifying offer, which would be extremely risk-averse.  The O’s didn’t make a qualifying offer to Markakis last winter, which Mark Brown of Camden Chat theorized may have been a gesture of loyalty from owner Peter Angelos.

Wieters has little competition on the free agent market, but he will be affected by the availability of Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy.  Any of the above teams could make a deal for Lucroy and drop out of the Wieters market.

Expected Contract

I can picture Boras coming out of the gates seeking Russell Martin/Brian McCann money for Wieters, meaning five years and $82-85MM.  I don’t think he’ll get there, but I’m predicting a four-year, $64MM deal, even with a qualifying offer.

East Notes: Anthopoulos, Nats, Desmond, Montero, Cespedes, Gordon

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Blue Jays ownership is to blame for the team’s surprising separation with former GM Alex Anthopoulos, argues Bruce Arthur of the Toronto Star. New president Mark Shapiro “said he strongly disagreed with some of the deadline choices that sent prospects out,” Arthur reports, and indications are that he took the job in part because he is interested in increasing his involvement in personnel decisions. (The club made several swaps, most notable shipping out young pitching talent to acquire David Price and Troy Tulowitzki.) Rogers Communications, the club’s ownership group, initially offered Anthopoulos only a one-year contract with an option, says Arthur, and though the offer ultimately was bumped to a five-year term, that seemingly set the stage for the departure of Anthopoulos. Meanwhile, the new free agent executive took a conciliatory tack on his way out, saying, “I just didn’t feel like this was the right fit for me going forward.”

Here’s more from Toronto and some other eastern division clubs:

  • Writing for the National Post, Andrew Stoeten takes rather a different perspective on the Blue Jays’ front office changes. He suggests that it’s a valid criticism that Anthopoulos gave up too much young talent over the summer, even if the immediate results were good. More broadly, there’s no reason in particular to think Anthopoulos is uniquely irreplaceable, Stoeten argues.
  • Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post takes a look at an interesting offseason for the Nationals. As he explains, the club could probably just add some bullpen pieces and a left-handed-hitting, center field-capable fourth outfielder and call it a day. That wouldn’t be perfect, but it should be workable enough, and it may be what the team had hoped and expected to be looking at heading into 2015. But a terribly disappointing campaign changes the equation somewhat. Svrluga says that the organization has pegged a $175MM overall annual operations budget, a number which includes player salaries but would also include additional spending in other areas (he cites various front office upgrades, though presumably it might also involve international spending or other speculative investments). With various big-money players are coming off of the books, Svrluga argues at least some of their salaries ought to be reallocated to new acquisitions. Upgrading over Wilson Ramos at catcher should be considered, he argues, and the team must decide whether to trade Yunel Escobar (possibly for bullpen help) and how much trust to put in Michael Taylor.
  • Outgoing Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond figures to draw strong interest from the Mets, people around the game are telling Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (as part of a broader notes column). Heyman says he’s expecting a “robust” market for Desmond after a late-season return to form, and also notes the Mariners, Padres, White Sox, and Twins as plausible landing spots.
  • It’s easy to forget about righty Rafael Montero given the success of the Mets’ other arms, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the team hasn’t. New York expects Montero to be ready to go this spring after dealing with shoulder issues all year, and Sherman notes that he’ll at least represent a solid depth piece in the near-term if he can stay healthy. Of course, with Zack Wheeler also set to return next summer and Steven Matz now looking like he’ll command a rotation spot for years to come, Montero could ultimately factor as a trade chip.
  • Sherman also takes a crack at assessing the in-season changes to the future free agent market of Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. The Red Sox offered him a five-year deal at about $75MM when he was with the club, says Sherman, and might have considered going to the Hunter Pence range (5/$90MM). Now, says Sherman, Cespedes’s future valuation has swung wildly. Before his mid-season swap to New York, he says, Cespedes was generally expected to receive a deal that might not have reached $100MM. The outfielder pushed his ceiling to the six-year, $150MM range after a blistering couple of months, per Sherman, but now some executives feel a tepid few weeks could drop him shy of nine figures. For what it’s worth, my own take is that Cespedes’s earning capacity has probably not moved quite so violently; while it’s obviously shifted, I’d have pegged him at a higher mid-season expectation and still believe he’ll easily clear the $100MM barrier this offseason.
  • The Red Sox could be a surprise contender to add outfielder Alex Gordon via free agency, Sherman writes. While Boston could move forward with its internal options in the outfield, rival executives see a scenario where the team tries to utilize the resurgent Jackie Bradley Jr. as a trade piece to add a pitcher while simultaneously locking up Gordon. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe analyzes the concept, explaining that Fenway Park has seemed uniquely capable of undermining otherwise strong defenders’ abilities in left field. As Sherman suggests, Gordon could be added with the idea of deploying him in right, and Speier does add that Castillo looked good in limited action in left, so there’s some hypothetical plausibility but also some tough questions to be answered before pursuing that strategy.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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After one of the most frenetic offseasons in recent history, the Padres entered the 2015 season with elevated expectations and a wildly different roster than the one inherited by first-year GM A.J. Preller. Unfortunately for the team, Preller’s high-profile acquisitions didn’t yield a postseason run or even a winning record.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Matt Kemp, OF: $72MM through 2019 (Dodgers also owe Kemp $14MM through 2019)
  • James Shields, RHP: $65MM through 2018 (including buyout of 2019 option; Shields can opt out after 2016)
  • Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B/SS: $33MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 option)
  • Melvin Upton, OF: $31.9MM through 2017
  • Craig Kimbrel, RHP: $25MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)
  • Alexi Amarista, 2B/SS/3B/OF: $1.3MM through 2016

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR)

Free Agents

Contract Options

  • Joaquin Benoit, RHP: $8MM club option with $1.5MM buyout
  • Clint Barmes, SS: $2MM club option with $200K buyout
  • Cory Luebke, LHP: $7.5MM club option with $1.75MM buyout

The Padres have crossed off the first item on their to-do list, and it probably shouldn’t come as a surprise that it was an out-of-the-box move. San Diego has tabbed 38-year-old Diamondbacks third base coach Andy Green as their new manager. While he comes with some notable minor league experience, this will be Green’s first taste of manging in the Majors.

As far as the contractual options facing the Padres, Cory Luebke’s is an easy call to decline, as the lefty hasn’t thrown a pitch since 2012 due to a pair of Tommy John surgeries. Clint Barmes’ option is cheap, but the Padres probably consider him redundant with Alexi Amarista projected to have a bench spot. Joaquin Benoit’s option is the toughest call. Metrics like FIP call for big regression, but he’s been able to routinely outperform them by sustaining abnormal BABIP marks and strand rates. While his walk and strikeout rates have each gone in the wrong direction, his velocity and swinging strike rate look good. This boils down to a one-year, $6.5MM decision on Benoit (he has a $1.5MM buyout). That seems reasonable, and even if the Padres don’t want him at that price, they could trade him. Picking up the option and paying $1.5MM to improve the return in a trade is a better outcome than simply buying him out.

Perhaps the biggest roadblock that option presents is that it would bring the 2016 payroll higher than their Opening Day mark from 2015, and there’s quite a bit of work to do around the diamond. An elevated payroll was always the expectation, as they received $18MM in 2015 salary relief in the Matt Kemp trade and also backloaded James Shields’ contract, but the baseball ops staff probably hoped there’d be less needs around the roster. Instead, they’ve already committed $71.9MM to the 2016 payroll, plus a projected $24.4MM for Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Yonder Alonso, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks in arbitration, and then the potential Benoit option and league-minimum salaries needed to fill out the roster.

That crowded payroll is one reason that the Padres were said to be open to moving some of their more established contributors at the non-waiver trade deadline, though that never came to fruition. Many of those talks will be revisited this winter. In an odd way, the Padres’ 2015-16 offseason will be defined perhaps more so by who they subtract from the organization than by who they add. It’s unclear how much flexibility they’ll have for roster additions without eliminating some 2016 payroll concerns.

Shields, Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton represent the three largest salaries that San Diego could shop, but nearly every position on the diamond and every slot in the rotation could be subject to trade talks. That sets up a fascinating offseason but also makes the already-difficult task of attempting to outline a team’s winter nearly impossible.

Shields is a particularly tough sell, as he was more good than great in his first first year with Padres. Though his strikeout rate soared, so too did his homer-to-flyball rate, resulting in an elevated ERA and FIP. If another club is convinced the HR/FB spike is a fluke, Shields is more appealing, but $21MM annually is steep. He isn’t the quintessential “albatross” contract — he’s still a useful starter — but it’s fair to say he qualifies as the type of player that’s often moved in swaps of “bad” contracts.

One oft-floated suggestion was a swap of Pablo Sandoval with the Red Sox, though I don’t see the merit in that for San Diego unless Boston sweetens the deal with young talent. Sandoval is owed more money and was one of the game’s worst all-around performers in 2015. The Padres needn’t be that desperate to move Shields, who was useful in 2015.

Upton — Melvin, that is — possesses an undesirable contract of his own, although the older of the two Uptons did quietly enjoy a bounceback year in 2015. He didn’t reach his peak Tampa Bay production levels, but Upton slashed .259/.327/.429 and made solid contributions on the basepaths and defense. The $31.9MM he’s owed lines up reasonably well with the money remaining on the contracts of Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez and Matt Garza, though I’m not sure any of those pitchers’ teams would benefit from making such a deal. More realistic is that Upton will remain under contract as an overpriced fourth outfielder/platoon partner for defensive standout Travis Jankowski, which appears to be at least somewhat of a consideration.

The other significant salary the Padres could try to move is that of Kimbrel, but he, unlike Shields and Upton, would be in high demand. The Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, Nationals and Cubs all stand out as plausible trade partners, and each of those clubs possesses plenty of young talent. If he’s to trade Kimbrel, Preller would have to decide if the goal is to add Major League talent to help the 2016 club or package Kimbrel with a less desirable contract (i.e. Shields, Upton) to clear salary. Trading him for prospects doesn’t align with the Padres’ recent tactics.

If the Padres are able to free up some payroll, shortstop will be their biggest priority. Ian Desmond tops the free agent market, but despite a down season, he strikes me as likely to command, at minimum, a four-year deal (five is also possible). He’s already been connected to the Padres, but an expensive free-agent miss wouldn’t look good for the front office coming off a disappointing 2015 season, and the Friars have multiple needs. If Preller is again to turn to the trade market, a highly speculative list of partners includes the Cubs (Javier Baez, Starlin Castro), Mariners (Ketel Marte, Brad Miller, Chris Taylor), Astros (Jed Lowrie), Rays (Nick Franklin), Red Sox (Deven Marrero) and possibly Twins (Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez, Jorge Polanco).

There are more in-house options, at least, in the rest of the infield. Jedd Gyorko filled in at short late in the 2015 season, but he shouldn’t be asked to play there again for defensive reasons. Gyorko can handle both second base and third base, as can the younger Cory Spangenberg. The former is a righty, the latter swings from the left side, and the club also has the switch-hitting Yangervis Solarte (and disappointing Will Middlebrooks) available at the hot corner. Given the needs elsewhere, it’s possible to imagine Preller relying on this group again in 2016, though a free agent target wouldn’t be out of the question. Ben Zobrist, as we at MLBTR find ourselves saying frequently in these Offseason Outlooks, certainly makes some sense given his versatility, though his age makes him particularly risky for San Diego, given the current uncertainty permeating their roster.

The Padres quickly abandoned the idea of Wil Myers in center field and moved him to first base, but that now presents its own issues. With both Myers and Yonder Alonso figuring to be healthy in 2016, the Padres have two players for that first base spot. The best option for Myers is probably to shift to left field in place of the departing Justin Upton. That creates somewhat of a logjam, though, as top prospect Hunter Renfroe is a corner outfielder, as is former Top 100 prospect Rymer Liriano. Both are nearly MLB-ready, though Preller hasn’t shown an aversion to trading prospects.

Alonso could be a desirable trade piece for many teams — Milwaukee, Baltimore (if Chris Davis leaves), Pittsburgh, to name a few — but he’s also one of the precious few lefty bats the Padres have. And while he doesn’t hit for power, his overall offensive contributions this year were positive. There’s a case to be made that San Diego should move Alonso, go for broke, and make a run at Davis to inject some power into the lineup, but that’s a long shot.

If Alonso is moved, a left-field decision arises: trust Renfroe/Liriano or seek an outside addition. Colby Rasmus would give the Padres a much-needed left-handed bat, as would Gerardo Parra. If Preller and L.A. counterpart Andrew Friedman want to connect for another significant swap, the Dodgers have Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier, who could each be moved for a bad contract. The player the Padres received from the Dodgers last winter, Matt Kemp, seems like he’ll definitively be stationed in right field, so there appears to be at least one certain spot in the lineup.

Center field, again, comes with question marks. Jankowski is a gifted defender but doesn’t project to hit much. He could be a fine fourth outfielder, but he’s probably miscast as a starter. Jankowski and Upton could platoon here, but free agents Dexter Fowler and Denard Span or a trade candidate like Jackie Bradley would help to balance out the lineup and provide better offense. Span, in particular, is an intriguing buy-low candidate, as his injury could suppress his value and make him a relative bargain. Although, that also enhances the risk of signing him. If handedness isn’t a concern, Marcell Ozuna makes sense.

Like nearly every other position on the diamond, the Padres have some trade options behind the plate. Derek Norris is slated to make $3.4MM, so moving him could free up a bit of money, and Austin Hedges represents an MLB-ready replacement. However, the team could flip the defensively gifted and well-regarded Hedges in a trade to fill another hole. Norris had his worst season at the plate in 2015, so they could be selling low, though on the other hand his throwing improved quite a bit. On a thin catching market, he’d draw interest, and Hedges is superior defensively.

The rotation offers a bit more certainty, but not much. Shields, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner form a solid 1-2-3 atop the rotation, and young righty Colin Rea is a candidate for the back of the starting unit along with righty Odrisamer Despaigne and lefty Robbie Erlin. Ian Kennedy is set to depart as a free agent and should net the team a compensatory draft pick — I see little reason for him to accept a qualifying offer, as his durability and steady results should net him a more lucrative multi-year deal — though the team could look to retain him.

However, as previously mentioned, Shields is a definite trade candidate this winter, and the Padres fielded offers on both Ross and Cashner prior to the trade deadline. Cashner is only controlled through 2016, so it makes sense that he, in particular, could resurface in trade talks. The Cubs and Red Sox each showed interest in Ross, and the righty is the type of borderline-dominant arm that either team could pursue to bolster its rotation for at least two years, if not more via an extension. Names like Kyle Hendricks or Henry Owens could be part of a Ross trade (though not necessarily headliners), thereby giving San Diego an immediate, albeit lesser replacement. Cashner wouldn’t fetch as large of a haul, but he could bring back a big-league piece to help in a different area.

The Padres need to add at least one arm to the mix, possibly two if they move one of the current three rotation locks and don’t receive an immediate replacement in return. A lefty would help give opponents a bit of a different look, though adding quality innings should be an emphasis over pitcher handedness. One inexpensive possibility would be to try Brandon Maurer in the rotation again. The former Mariners prospect has blossomed into an excellent setup man but still deployed a three-pitch mix out of the ’pen in 2015. Obviously, an innings limit would have to be a consideration.

Moving Maurer to the rotation could create a larger hole in the bullpen, where the Padres are also set to lose the underrated Shawn Kelley and could also non-tender Rzepczynski. Kevin Quackenbush and Nick Vincent could rejoin Benoit and Kimbrel (if neither is traded). Lefty Frank Garces battled his control in both the Majors and minors after a dominant Double-A campaign in 2014, so at least one cheap lefty relief option would be a nice pickup.

No first-year GM has ever made a splash as immediate and dramatic as Preller in 2014-15. Because no one could have reasonably predicted that level of activity, the Padres dominated headlines for much of the offseason, right up until their acquisition of Kimbrel on the eve of Opening Day. San Diego again mystified the baseball world by taking the opposite course of action this summer, standing pat despite the fact that they weren’t within reasonable striking distance of a postseason berth. The expectation here is that the Padres will again be in for an exceptionally active offseason, so much so that their course of action could play a key role in a number of other clubs’ winter gameplans as well.

MLBTR Podcast: The Qualifying Offer Episode

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After catching up on moves around the league, Jeff welcomes MLBTR’s Steve Adams to the show to discuss his philosophy on liberally extending qualifying offers. The discussion then moves into this year’s market, covering a host of possible QO recipients — including players such as Marco Estrada (Blue Jays), Daniel Murphy (Mets), Denard Span (Nationals), David Freese (Angels), Matt Wieters (Orioles), Ian Kennedy (Padres), and Colby Rasmus (Astros).

If you’re in need of a refresher on how the qualifying offer process works, and why it’s so important, check out this post from yesterday for a primer.

Click here to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and please leave a review! The podcast is also available via Stitcher at this link.

The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast runs weekly on Thursday afternoons.

Daniel Norris Has Successful Surgery For Thyroid Cancer

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OCTOBER 29: Norris has announced on Instagram that his surgery was successful and that he is considered cancer-free. That’s obviously outstanding news. Hopefully, the surgery has not only secured Norris’s long-term health, but also will allow him to resume his promising career in short order.

OCTOBER 19: Tigers lefty Daniel Norris announced today on Instagram that he has been diagnosed with cancer in his thyroid. He will undergo surgery soon to remove the malignant growth.

Needless to say, the news is shocking, particularly given that Norris is just 22 years of age. On the bright side, of course, many of the factors that made him a top pitching prospect  — youth, physical strength, and mental toughness — will serve him well as he battles this new foe.

Also providing hope for a good prognosis is the fact that Norris played out the season despite receiving the diagnosis several months back. He indicates in his announcement that he got the news prior to his trade from the Blue Jays to the Tigers, but was advised that it was safe to hold off on having the procedure. Remarkably, Norris performed quite well in a late-season run of eight starts with Detroit.

MLBTR extends its very best wishes to Daniel, who was kind enough to join the MLBTR Podcast back in early August. Already an inspirational figure for his approach to life, he’ll no doubt continue to set an example as he tackles cancer.

Padres Name Andy Green Manager

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5:42pm: The Padres have announced the hiring, making it official. It appears that Green has received a three-year deal, MLB.com’s Corey Brock tweets.

11:53am: Although the Padres were said to be down to Ron Gardenhire and Rick Sofield in their search for a new manager, it appears they’ve made a last-minute audible, as Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller is now reporting that Diamondbacks third base coach Andy Green will be San Diego’s new skipper (Twitter link). The Padres have issued a press release to inform the media that they’ll formally announce a new manager at 3pm PT. (San Diego did not name Green in the release). Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets that Gardenhire was the runner-up to Green, who was offered the position late last night.

Andy Green

The 38-year-old Green will instantly become one of the youngest managers in baseball (though Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash is still younger). That’s not to say, however, that he comes without managerial experience. To the contrary, Green has four seasons of minor league managerial experience in spite of his young age. From 2011-14, he managed in the D-Backs’ minor league system, including a pair of postseason berths for the Double-A Mobile Bay Bears in 2013-14. Green was named Southern League Manager of the Year in each of those two seasons.

Green played parts of four seasons in the Major Leagues, with his fourth and final appearance coming in 2009 when he saw action in just four games with the Mets. A second baseman/third baseman by trade, Green appeared in 140 big league games and received 265 plate appearances, though he batted just .200/.282/.265 in that short time. The former 24th-round pick was a strong minor league hitter in parts of 10 seasons (.295/.375/.444) and also had a bit of experience in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball as well.

In addition to Green, Gardenhire and Sofield, the Padres are known to have interviewed D-Backs Triple-A manager Phil Nevin, former Major Leaguer and veteran winter ball manager Alex Cora, Dodgers bench coach Tim Wallach, former big league pitcher Tom Gordon, former Angels assistant GM Scott Servais (who was instead hired to become the new manager of the Mariners) and current Padres hitting coach Mark Kotsay.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Marlins Dismiss Dan Jennings

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5:44pm: The Marlins have announced that Jennings has been relieved of his duties. Miami won’t hire a replacement, but will instead shift his former responsibilities over to Hill while also increasing Berger’s role.

Jackson also provides more detail on the split, writing that Jennings wanted to stay on as manager but was told he’d instead be offered a return to the GM role. The then-skipper and owner Jeffrey Loria had butted heads over how he was running the club, says Jackson, “including whether to play Marcell Ozuna.”

Per the report, Jennings was preparing to report back to the organization on October 19 when he was told instead to stay home. Club president David Samson advised Jennings that he’d first need to talk things over with Loria — a conversation which seemingly never occurred.

Samson issued the following statement in a team press release:

“We want to thank Dan for his dedication and loyal service to the Marlins organization over the last 13 years. This is the continuation of the restructuring of our baseball operations department and we look forward to moving in a unified direction to reach our goal of becoming a championship-caliber ballclub that our fans richly deserve.”

5:06pm: The Marlins have decided to “dismiss” now-former general manager and manager Dan Jennings, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports on Twitter. Jennings, of course, was still under contract for three more seasons, meaning that Miami will likely remain on the hook for the $5.6MM left on his contract (though it could be offset when he’s hired elsewhere).

Jennings, 55, has been with the Miami organization since 2002. He served as the club’s general manager — working alongside president of baseball operations Michael Hill — from 2013 through the middle of 2015. After the team fired manager Mike Redmond in May, Jennings moved into the skipper’s seat in an eyebrow-raising move that didn’t pan out.

Though Jennings wasn’t able to turn around a disappointing club that he had a major hand in compiling, he is said to have managed to earn the trust of his players in spite of the odd situation. And while the Fish weren’t able to match their (arguably unreasonable) expectations, Jennings remains a highly-respected executive. Indeed, Bob Nightengale of USA Today notes on Twitter that Jennings has already drawn interest from other teams looking for assistant general managers.

While the move is somewhat surprising, given Jennings’s deep ties to the Miami organization and owner Jeffrey Loria, Nightengale adds that Jennings was hoping to be released from his obligations to pursue new opportunities. It appeared that his front office standing may have been marginalized while he was in the dugout, with the club having handed off some of his duties to VP and assistant GM Mike Berger. Club president David Samson said just weeks ago that Jennings was still the general manager, but it seemed even at that time that there was a lot to be worked out for the relationship to continue.

During his time in the GM chair, Jennings played a key role in a number of big moves. Most notably, perhaps, the club extended outfielders Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich, with the former receiving a record $325MM guarantee.

Rockies Decline Justin Morneau’s Option

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The Rockies announced that they have declined their half of Justin Morneau’s $9MM mutual option. The first baseman and Relativity Sports client will instead be paid a $750K buyout and hit the open market in search of a new team.

Justin Morneau

Morneau, 34, signed a two-year, $12.5MM contract with the Rockies prior to the 2014 season after concussion and neck injuries nearly forced him into retirement late in his Twins tenure. The 2006 American League MVP enjoyed an outstanding rebound campaign in Colorado last year, hitting .319/.364/.496 with 17 homers. While it was low relative to previous league leaders, that .319 batting average earned Morneau the 2014 National League batting title.

The 2015 season, though, told a markedly different tale for Morneau. The Canadian-born slugger played in just 49 games total, as he missed most of the season with yet another concussion and further neck problems. Morneau was sidelined from May 13 until Sept. 4, although it is certainly worth noting that upon activation from the disabled list, he looked to have something left in the tank. Morneau hit .338/.423/.471 in 22 games down the stretch, although he failed to homer and was undoubtedly aided by a .434 BABIP in that time. Nevertheless, he drew 10 walks and struck out just 15 times in 78 plate appearances, suggesting that his strike zone knowledge and pitch recognition were still intact.

Morneau will enter a free-agent market that is headlined by Chris Davis and Korean star Byung-ho Park but offers little else in the way of full-time options. Even Morneau himself probably shouldn’t be considered a full-time player at this stage of his career, despite the fact that he batted .342/.375/.474 against southpaws this season. Those numbers look impressive, but they came in a sample of just 40 plate appearances, which is far less telling than the .224/.263/.307 batting line he’s compiled in 666 PAs versus lefties dating back to the 2011 season.

While Morneau’s injury shortened season was a disappointment for a player who looked to be on his way to rebuilding a significant portion of his stock with a nice 2014 season, I’d imagine the fact that he not only showed he was healthy enough to take the field but was also productive in the season’s final month will earn him an incentive-laden one-year contract this offseason, assuming he wants to continue playing after once again enduring the rigors of recovering from a severe concussion.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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