11:09pm: Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune writes that Jay will be re-evaluated three weeks from now and will be on the shelf for between four and six weeks total. A four- or even nearly a five-week absence could have Jay back just prior to this season’s Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, but there’s also a very real possibility that he’ll be out beyond the deadline. Jay won’t require surgery, and the injury is described by manager Andy Green as a “slight” fracture of the radius in Jay’s forearm. Addressing the length of time between Jay being struck by the pitch and today’s diagnosis, Green offered the following explanation:
“He got hit on the ulna (bone), and it banged into the radius and actually got the radius. So it’s not the bone that actually got hit. The swelling was between those two bones, so you couldn’t get a clear picture of it. That’s what the X-ray wasn’t able to reveal.”
12:45pm: Padres outfielder Jon Jay has suffered a broken forearm, Darren Smith of Mighty1090.com reports on Twitter. He’ll be placed on the 15-day DL, with Alex Dickerson brought up to take his place on the active roster.
[Related: Updated Padres Depth Chart]
Jay was injured when he was struck by a fastball from Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez a week back. He has not played since, but initial x-rays were negative, leading to hopes that Jay would not even require a DL stint. The prognosis remains unknown at present, but it certainly seems the injury is much more serious than had been anticipated.
While it’s wise not to jump to conclusions, this injury seems as if it could well take Jay out of the running as a trade piece this summer. With a reasonable $6.225MM salary, and no obligations after the year, he had seemed like a rather likely player to be dealt; indeed, he ranked 7th on MLBTR’s most recent list of the top trade candidates around the game.
Since coming over in exchange for infielder Jedd Gyorko over the winter, Jay had been a bright spot for a struggling Padres ballclub. Over 291 plate appearances, the 31-year-old was carrying a .296/.345/.407 batting line with two home runs and a league-leading 24 doubles. Defensive metrics were a bit down on his work in center in a short sample, but Jay has consistently rated as a quality up-the-middle defender over his career.
That strong start not only made Jay an interesting target for teams needing another solid outfielder, but seemed likely to set him up for a solid free agent payday after the season. He was coming off of a subpar, injury-marred 2015 season, but had returned to the solidly above-average offensive production that he has carried for most all of his time in the majors.
From the team’s perspective, losing Jay is the latest blow to its stock of trade assets. Two other prime candidates — righties Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner — both remain on the DL as the August 1st deadline draws near.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rip trade rumors
Well, there goes the Padres hope of landing some good prospects. Guess that means Myers can go ahead and plan to be dealt.
HBP injuries are rough, but they don’t usually break bones that badly. Still a chance he’s back by the trade deadline, and the Padres better pray he is because it looked like the return for him wouldn’t be half bad
They were never going to get good prospects for Jay. He’s a light-hitting 31 year old without a history of any kind of success.
“Without a history of any kind of success” by that you mean last year. Jay has established himself as a solid option in the outfield throughout his career.
He’s streaky. Cards were lucky to dump him
It’s easy to trade a player when you take back someone who’s worse and going to cost you $15M more.
We’ll take him back any time you feel like it!!! Maybe he’ll get the Cards back to the World Series. We haven’t come close against top tiered teams since he left!!!!!
A 7-year veteran signed to an affordable deal, who plays good defense in CF, and has a career .288 BA & .353 OBP in 2960 PA? He has exactly the resume contending teams are looking for if they are in the market to trade for a CF. Regardless of position played, that combination of BA and OBP is highly desirable at the top of any lineup. Prior to this injury, the Padres were looking at a couple good prospects in return for a Jay rental.
LOL you were bashing Jay like a fat kid bashing a piñata when we traded for him! Yet another instance of you having no conceptual understanding of what you are talking about.
He’s still a rental, who doesn’t hit homeruns, or steal bases in mass quantity. I see a high A or AA middling prospect. No sure things required. He was never going to be offered a QO, so the return will not even be up to the status of a sandwich pick. He will be a nice acquisition for somebody. On a contender, probably best suited to be the 4th OF.
Preller should take what he can get as Jay has no value to this team and is blocking a few of our outfield prospects. But after seeing what he did last year he’ll probably keep him …
Tough break for the Padres.. although why wasn’t it diagnosed sooner?
I see what you did there.
Initial x-rays showed no fracture. It was found in a CT scan when pain persisted after the swelling went down.
I was on the team “Hold on to Pomeranz” but I definitely think it’s a possibility he will/should be dealt now. Terrible blow to Jay and the Padres.
This will definitely help out other teams with CFs to trade, although to be honest I can’t think of any that have been mentioned other than Jay and Melvin Upton. Perhaps we see a surprise name being moved now.
If he misses the July deadline he can still be sent through waivers in august to reach a deal. At worst preller extends him a QO like kennedy and upton.
You want to pay Jay $17m? That is a huge overpay.
Took the words right out of my mouth.
If he does, Jay will take it. The QO will be worth somewhere around $17 million for next year. He’s coming off an injury shortened 2015 and now another injury year in 2016. Not that a broken forearm caused by a HBP is his fault or makes him injury prone; but still he’s probably best served taking the $17 million for 2017 if Preller is dumb enough to extend it. Best case right now for him is probably 3/$30, and I don’t know that he’d do that with the QO hanging over him, so he’d only need to get a 2/$13 deal next to break even. Hard to see him not doing that.
I see no situation in which Jon Jay gets a QO and if he does he’d take it in a heartbeat. He will be moved.
It’s true that Jay could be traded in August, but what about the teams that need CF help before then. That’s where it is going to get interesting. There is very little available. Do we see someone take a shot with a vet like Upton or Coco Crisp? Do we see a bigger name like Charlie Blackmon (I hope not unless it is for a lot) get moved.? Dare I even bring up the name of Trout? Will teams get creative and try and get a CF from a different position? This one injury has raised quite a lot of questions.
The Yankees would make Gardener available if they intend to sell. He is still a plus defender in center with good speed and decent power. Controllable for an extra year as well.
Jay at $16.5-$17 million is not worth it. So no QO for him. He is playing too well for him to pass through waivers to get a trade done unless it’s to the team who claims him and then you have zero leverage and get zero value in return. This injury is a punch in the gut to our chance to continue rebuilding our farm system.
Then just take whatever low-A pitcher they offer us and hope that that pitcher wins the Cy Young Award like 5 years later. That’s basically what happened with Corey Kluber XD
Preller makes lots of questionable moves but even he won’t extend Jay a qo.
On another front, don’t really understand bringing up Dickerson instead of Renfroe, especially when they have Jankowski and Upton, both of whom can play CF, and they could move Kemp and his brick of a glove to LF.
Dickerson is already on the 40 man roster and Renfroe isn’t. Plus not saying Renfroe hasn’t earned it, but Dickerson earned it with his numbers too.
Good point, I didn’t realize that, thanks.
Yeah, no reason to start Remfroe’s clock early. Renfroe still has some improveent to make in the plate discipline area too. And didckerson is 26 – might as well see if he’s going to have a career or not. I remember seeing him play here in college (I live in Bloomington) and he had a nice line-drive swing.
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Gotta feel bad for the Padres after this one
Another great reason to move assets as soon as possible. Every year we go through this where teams wait until the middle of July and the player either gets hurt or performance regresses. Only people that should be waiting until the deadline are teams on the bubble.
Except the purpose of waiting is for the field of contenders to be established, and thus the pool of suitors to be established. You don’t get very much in May for a player while teams are still figuring out what type of team they have, and aren’t really sure where their holes are. The exceptions to that are the obvious sellers, and they aren’t giving up any value.
There goes another trade piece. It’s looking new and more like Pomeranz will be dealt, as well as Rodney. I wonder if maybe Jay will be able to come back by August and possibly be traded then through waivers?
I am an Indians fan and feel they need a left handed upgrade for the bullpen. What do you think the cost would be for Cleveland to acquire Ryan Buchter? Would AAA SS Erik Gonzalez be enough? He is ranked 10 or 11 in the system and is having a solid year.
It’s tough to guage Buchter’s trade value. No track record to speak of, controllable through 2021. He probably has more value to the team than he could bring back in a trade.
Oh, I think the Padres would do that in a second, but Cleveland wouldn’t. Buchter is almost 30 and hasn’t ever really accomplished much in the majors. He’s had a fantastic half-season but LOOGYs and relievers in general fluke into tremendous half-season all the time. I could see him being dealt but for a lower-level prospect, probably a top-30 guy but in the lower level of that range.
Yeah it’s tough to gauge Buchter’s value. Maybe Preller would move him in the right deal, but other guys like Rodney will probably be traded first.
Jay is still the NL leader in doubles?!?! Weird….
I’m a Cardinals fan and will always like this guy. Hope things work out for him or he signs with cards next year as a free agent.
He could still be dealt off waivers, no need to panic just yet
Yeah, but if he comes back and looks good, then goes on waivers, he’ll be claimed. (They could pull him back, but then can’t trade, so little leverage.)
Maybe they’ll put him on waivers first thing, presumably before he’s back, and hope he clears.