Ryan Braun was already into the fourth year of an eight-year, $45MM extension with the Brewers when he signed another extension that theoretically made him a Brewer for life. That deal, signed in April 2011, only just began this season — a five-year, $105MM extension covering the 2016-20 seasons that also includes a $15MM mutual option for 2021 (that can be bought out for $4MM).
The Brewers reached the NLCS in 2011 on the strength of Braun’s NL MVP numbers, though it’s been a rougher ride for both player and team ever since. Braun’s MVP was called into question after he tested positive for PEDs following the season, though that positive test was overturned in very controversial fashion. The outfielder then did face suspension for his part in the Biogenesis PED scandal, accepting a 65-game ban that prematurely cut short his 2013 season. Beyond the disciplinary issues, Braun has also had his share of injury problems, including a nagging nerve injury in his right thumb, a bad back that required surgery last offseason and some wrist and neck soreness this season.
So with Braun now in his age-32 season, there’s no question that he carries a fair amount of baggage for potential trade suitors. Beyond the salary, injury history and PED history, there’s also the fact that Braun wields a great deal of control over his movement via a 23-team no-trade clause. For 2016, the only six teams not on his list are the Angels, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Marlins and Padres.
With all of this in mind, Braun is nonetheless one of baseball’s top trade candidates as we approach the August 1 deadline because he can still flat-out hit. He has cooled off a bit in June after a blazing-hot start, yet Braun is still hitting .325/.381/.557 with 13 homers in 270 plate appearances this season. When healthy, Braun is still a very dangerous bat who could improve virtually any contender’s lineup.
The Brewers find themselves in something of a kingmaker’s position this deadline, as they not only have Braun, but also perhaps the single biggest trade chip of all in catcher Jonathan Lucroy. I examined Lucroy’s trade market earlier in June and speculated that Milwaukee GM David Stearns could look to kill two birds with one stone by packaging Braun and Lucroy in the same trade; Lucroy’s team-friendly contract could make a team more willing to absorb all of Braun’s deal, leaving the Brew Crew with tons of future payroll flexibility.
Owner Mark Attanasio, however, is reportedly more focused on adding blue chip young talent to his organization than he is about getting Braun’s contract off the books. There are also relatively few teams that could realistically meet what would still be a substantial asking price for a Braun/Lucroy combo. It’s a fun idea from a blockbuster standpoint, though it’s probably not in the cards.
Focusing just on Braun, then, let’s go through the teams that could use corner outfield help. Braun shifted back to left field this season after playing right primarily in 2014-15, though his defensive metrics as a right fielder (minus-9 Defensive Runs Saved and -7.7 UZR/150) aren’t pretty. He could return to the position in a pinch with a new team, though it’s rather clear that Braun is more serviceable in left, where the metrics are split (31 DRS but -4.0 UZR/150 over his career in left field) on his glove.
Let’s begin with the six teams exempt from Braun’s no-trade list…
As I noted back in May, geography and personal ties likely played a role in Braun’s choices — he played college ball at the University of Miami and the other five teams are either in or near his hometown of Los Angeles. The Angels, Padres and Diamondbacks are more likely to be selling than adding at the deadline, while the Marlins are already set for star outfielders.
The Dodgers have plenty of outfield options but none who have consistently delivered in 2016, which could be why they’ve reportedly shown some interest in Jay Bruce. The Reds outfielder, however, is a better fit for L.A. as a left-handed hitter, plus he’s three years younger than Braun and is only under contract through this season (with a $13MM club option for 2017). So interest in Bruce doesn’t necessarily equate to interest in Braun for the Dodgers, though they have both the financial means to add Braun and the strong minor league system that would interest the Brewers.
The Giants have already touched base with the Brewers about Braun, though they lack the Dodgers’ minor league depth and could face a luxury tax crunch by adding Braun’s deal. Adding Braun would solidify left field for San Francisco, or he could play right until Hunter Pence returns (with the Angel Pagan/Gregor Blanco duo continuing to handle left). Looking beyond 2016, however, the Giants may not be keen on a Braun/Denard Span/Pence outfield given the injury histories and defensive limitations of all three veterans. While the Giants haven’t been shy in making big deadline additions under Brian Sabean and Bobby Evans, Braun doesn’t seem like an ideal fit.
Braun is also an imperfect fit for both NL contenders like the Cubs and Nationals, though you *could* make a case for either club with a bit of effort. Left field may technically be a weak spot for Chicago but they have plenty of internal options on hand. The Nats could address their center field problem by moving Bryce Harper back to center and adding Braun to play right, or perhaps left if Jayson Werth also switches corner spots. Washington, however, has so much future payroll already tied up in veteran players that acquiring Braun seems like a tall order, especially when you consider that the Nats face big arbitration raises for Harper and Anthony Rendon, if not contract extensions. The Nationals’ recent big expenditures have also contained millions in deferred payments (a nod to the club’s dispute with the Orioles over MASN broadcasting rights), so Braun’s contract is particularly undesirable for them.
This pretty much wraps up the NL for potential Braun suitors, as everyone else is either rebuilding or set in the outfield. The Mets now have a need in left with Michael Conforto‘s demotion and rookie Brandon Nimmo holding the fort, though given how the Mets have been wary about adding salary in recent years, it’d be a shocker if they made a big push for Braun.
Given how a move to first base or DH may be in Braun’s long-term defensive future, an American League team could perhaps be an ideal fit for Braun through the rest of the decade. We’ve already written off the Angels, and (barring injury) the A’s, Blue Jays, Indians, Rangers, Rays, Royals, Tigers, Twins and Yankees can likely also be counted out of the Braun market due to payroll limitations, rebuilding or lack of a positional fit.
The Red Sox have both the money and the prospect depth to swing a deal for Braun, though offense isn’t really a need now or in the near-future. That being said, injuries have turned left field into a problem area — Blake Swihart is out until August with a nasty ankle sprain, Brock Holt has missed over a month with concussion symptoms and Chris Young‘s return from a hamstring strain may be up in the air. Dave Dombrowski is no stranger to moving prospects for established stars, though if the Sox are indeed swayed to move one of their many highly-touted minor leaguers, it will probably be a trade for pitching instead of another bat. Speaking of blue chip prospects, the Red Sox also have left field earmarked for Andrew Benintendi perhaps as early as 2017, so they may not see the value in dealing for a pricey left fielder.
The Orioles could use a long-term power solution with Mark Trumbo and Matt Wieters potentially leaving in free agency this winter, and adding Braun would make an already-dangerous O’s lineup even scarier. Baltimore’s front office already surprised many with an uncharacteristic offseason spending spree, so maybe the O’s can raise more eyebrows by adding another big contract on August 1. With Hyun Soo Kim hitting well, however, it’s more probable that the O’s stick with the Kim/Nolan Reimold/Joey Rickard mix in left field and instead focus on adding pitching at the trade deadline. Baltimore’s low-rated farm system is also short on elite prospects that could get Milwaukee’s attention.
Like the O’s, the Mariners and White Sox also have thin farm systems (particularly if Chicago minor leaguers Tim Anderson and Carson Fulmer are indeed virtually untouchable in trade talks) but possess far more glaring needs in the outfield. Sox GM Rick Hahn has already made several aggressive moves to keep his team in the AL Central race, so targeting Braun can’t be entirely ruled out, especially with right fielder Avisail Garcia continuing to post sub-replacement level numbers in the majors.
The Mariners recently optioned Nori Aoki to Triple-A in the wake of a dismal season, leaving Seth Smith, Franklin Gutierrez, Nelson Cruz and Shawn O’Malley getting starts in the corner outfield spots. If Braun was obtained to play left, the M’s would suddenly have a very strong collection of a Smith/Gutierrez platoon in right, Leonys Martin‘s defensive brilliance in center and Cruz mashing in his ideal DH spot. Seattle’s new ownership group is willing to increase payroll, though it remains to be seen if that extends to a Braun-sized financial commitment.
After spending almost three years as the Astros’ assistant GM, Stearns is very familiar with Houston’s deep farm system. The Astros have so few financial commitments beyond this season that Braun’s contract would easily fit, even if his addition would create a crowded outfield this season (Colby Rasmus probably supplants Evan Gattis at DH and could also get some time in center, though Carlos Gomez is turning things around after a brutal start). Going forward, Houston could let Rasmus walk in free agency and then have Braun hold things down in left until top prospect Kyle Tucker is ready for the majors.
As you can see, the list of teams willing and able to trade for a player on a nine-figure contract through his mid-30’s seasons is not a long one. Braun’s ability to keep producing, however, has revived his trade value despite the skeletons in his closet. Given that the Brewers are apparently open to eating some money to get better prospects, if Braun stays healthy and keeps hitting through July, it only takes one team to find Milwaukee’s sweet spot between salary owed and a strong minor league trade package.
Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA Today Sports Images
Braun and Blaine Boyer for David Paulino, Joe Mosgrove and Colin Moran
Maybe they can throw Lucroy in there if we dump Stassi in…. Win/Win right?
To get Braun or lucroy I think they’d get one of bregmann/little Tucker plus musgrove and a choice of low/high A guys like bostic.
Too many OF’s if Astros trade for Braun. Marisnick? Gomez?
Gomez is a free agent to be (and could likely be sent elsewhere if the Astros make other trades), and Marisnick is not much more than a 4th Outfielder.
Not that I see Braun as a fit in Houston, but they could make it work if they wanted.
Ya this is a terrible deal for the Brewers
2 top 100 arms and an MLB ready 3B who came in just outside the top 100 isn’t really a terrible deal, especially if they take on Braun’s salary.
Well maybe not terrible but there should be better offers out there for a guy like Braun. BA has them as top 100 but Keith Law doesnt so it’s even debatable if they are top 100 guys. Like Heyman said in his article yesterday quoting a gm everyone could use a guy like Braun so I would imagine there will be good market for him. I would want a for sure legitimate prospect for him and then maybe some minor pieces. Someone like Bregman, Martes, or Reed headlining it. Preferably Martes since I don’t think the Astros would give up Bregman for him.
Bregman is more or less off limits I would think and possibly Reed too. I agree that they probably could get a better deal somewhere, but Musgrove and Paulino both have fairly high ceilings, and maybe more importantly seem to have high floors. Moran is what he is, slow, not great in the field, but will hit. Needs to add power. It would at least be enough to pique some interest I think.
Sure, everyone “could” use a guy like Braun, but not everybody wants to pay him a ton of money through his mid-to-late 30’s. The only way they are getting a prospect of that quality is if they eat a LOT of the salary, and even then, I wouldn’t bet on it.
A lot of great players will be making a ton of money through their mid 30s. It’s actually the going rate in free agency. Do you honestly think if Braun went into free agency after this year and said he wanted 76 mill, which he’s owed, teams would be like whoa, you’re crazy man. No most teams would be like okay what’s the catch?
Seattle seems like the perfect fit to me, but not sure they have the farm system to send that blue chip kind of guy that Sterns wants in return. If they could make it work he could immediately move into left field and be an improvement and if he does eventually have to move to 1B it’s not like Lee and Lind are firmly planted there for the future and nobody is pushing them from the minors.
I also thinks the author overstates Braun’s “defensive limitations”. Just above league average range factor for a LF, 0 errors on the year, 8 OF assists, and a UZR in the top 10. He can still play the OF pretty well. Now by the end of his contract maybe he has to move, but for now that shouldn’t be an issue.
Seattle has the prospects just don’t know if they would give them away for Braun
Seattle has no top 100 prospects now that Austin Jackson has competed his fall from grace in most of the updated rankings. Diaz (who I guess has crept into the top 100 on some lists) and Gohara could draw some interest, though neither of them project to be more than mid to back end starters and Milwaukee is looking for guys with bigger upside. After that you have a bunch of guys projected to be fringe players. There are only 3 guys in the entire system that rank out as 50+ prospects by BP and 6 by BA. That’s not good.
My money is on the Mets. The only negative this article mentions is that the Mets have been hesitant to add salary. While that’s tough to argue, it’s also a big possibility that the Brewers would be willing to eat some of the salary. How much of that salary is anyone’s guess, but given that the Mets are willing to pay Cespedes $23 million in 2017 and 2018 – a deal he’s likely to opt out of – it’s hard to imagine they wouldn’t be willing to pay Braun $20 million per year over the same length. After that, the contract is essentially a 3year/$51 million deal that’s quite reasonable in the current landscape (even for an aging player). The real issue might come down to how much the Brewers are willing to take on this year while the Mets would be paying both Braun and Cespedes.
As for the trade… I think it’s safe that the Brewers would start with Zach Wheeler and add from there… They were pretty hot for him a year ago, and despite being at the start of his TJ rehab, it wasn’t his medicals that held up that deal.
I actually think the Brewers would start higher than Wheeler, probably at Matz. Not saying they would get him, but that’s where they start. They could then use Wheeler’s injury and less years of control as negatives as a way to work down to him, making him the centerpiece of the trade while still seeming to have settled.
Wheeler does not match what the Brewers are looking for(young controllable talent), the fact he’s 26 and hasn’t pitched in over a year, only 3 years of control remaining, and hasn’t shown that he is a good pitcher after his surgery, the Brewers are not going to invest anything for him.
I wish the Wheeler for Brewers players would stop because its not happening.
Mets GM today said to not expect any significant trades. I’m not a Mets fan but this would drive me nuts. With that insane rotation and you do nothing to improve the offense? What a waste. I would empty that minor league system to get some decent hitters.
Wheeler is obviously not going to be a top target, but he is still young. There would still be some interest if they though they could get him to sign an extension right away.
The Brewers are not interested in 26 year old talent.
They want 21 year olds.
I think the Astros are more interested in Lucroy than Braun unless he plays 1B. But Gattis has been great behind the plate and Castro is better with more days off. I really don’t see the hottest team in baseball shipping talent for a high priced guy like they did last year. Gomez is back (finally), and the catching combo with Gattis is much better than it was with Conger.
Shame he’s a cheater, had the talent all along…
Or he has always cheated and is continuing to cheat… Would that really surprise anyone?
Dear God, move on already. Did you have a tough time letting go of VHS?
Can you prove that he isn’t/wasn’t on steroids? If not, then don’t make comments about him having the talent all along. Especially when all the evidence points towards him juicing.
Do I really care? Absolutely not. Would I still take him? Sure.
Pretty safe to say he’s been subjected to “random” tests since his suspension. Also PEDs aren’t necessarily what you probably think they are. They’re also to help an athlete recover quicker and prevent injuries. Note that since he’s been clean he’s had tons more nagging injuries. That’s why I’m comfortable to say that he’s clean now
I bet he’s been tested a crap load of times but as we know the testing doesn’t always catch up with the cheating.
I don’t know if Braun is no longer a PED user, I really hope he isn’t for the sake of baseball. But I really find it hard to forgive him for arrogantly blaming that sample collector who is an average guy who got death threats for conspiracy theorist fans. I mean that just stinks and apology or not it just shows me a major character flaw. I mean he sat there. Let this poor guy cop a load of crap and this is an average joe who collects PEE for a living. Come on!
You can tell a lot about someone when they are backed into a corner and that told me a lot about Braun’s natural character. These kind of character flaws are not something I believe people change.
Now having said that. I don’t think the Giants want a guy like that even if they could get him (and they can’t). Look how they distanced themselves from Melky and that other guy who’s name I forget short term right fielder? Giants have enough on their plate defending Bonds all the time.
Why should anyone “move on” with Braun and his cheating? Not only did he cheat, but he also made the most offensive defense against his cheating we’ve ever seen, including dragging to ruin one ordinary fellow who was just doing his job. He’s probably the most despicable villain of the PED era, and that’s saying something considering Barry Bonds was also involved in that period.
he was a PED user to stay healthy, not bulk up so there is a big difference between that and the cheaters of the HR era. from your name I suppose you are a red sox fan, and benefited from the PEDs in the players when they broke the world series drought.
No match. Braun will be a Brewer for the rest of this season (at least).
Mets….lol. Not a chance keep dreaming. They are way too cheap.
Do they even have the chips? They’ve said that they won’t trade Wheeler, and I don’t see them trading Matz, so other than those 2, what is there to offer?
Even if the Brewers don’t get Matz or Wheeler in a Braun trade, the Mets still have a couple of top prospects in Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario who might be appealing. They also have some lower level pitching which might be attractive as well.
Smith and Rosario are top METS prospects but they don’t rank in prospect watch top 100. Not sure where they are in other prospect lists but I dont get the impression these two are the pieces the Brewers are looking for. I’m thinking they’ll expect prospects higher up on thr food chain.
Most comprehensive article discussing Ryan Braun trade scenarios I have seen yet.
I still maintain he would be a better fit for an A.L. team and particularly the White Sox as a LF/RF/DH option who would bolster the middle of their batting order, either as cleanup hitter between Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier or as a #3 hitter which pushes Abreu to cleanup and Frazier to #5. Switch-hitting Melky Cabrera would also be in the mix between LF and DH, whichever Braun doesn’t play on any particular day. Adam Eaton could also play CF on the occasional day that Braun plays in RF. Cabrera could also bat #3 or #5, bridging Abreu and Frazier in the lineup. Justin Morneau also looks to be ready for duty after the All-Star break as a left-handed hitting platoon option at DH/1B.
Avisail Garcia would be the odd man out and likely a part of any deadline trade. Cabrera might also be a useful trade piece should Morneau prove to be fully recovered by August 1st.
If Anderson and especially Fulmer are off the table it’s going to be hard for the White Sox to do much of anything. Spencer Adams would have to be the centerpiece and is that enough? Especially with not a lot of mid-range prospects to package together.
I’m sure they could figure something out if the Sox were willing to take on the entire contract.
I don’t see a Sox match at all for Braun. And the contract really isn’t that bad, 76 million after this year. He would get easily that if he hit free agency after this year.
Don’t know if I buy that. The Brewers are rebuilding so right now, prospects>cash. A rebuilding team usually keeps a pretty low budget because it fills it’s roster with veterans past their prime, budding stars not there yet and league average players or worse who all have relatively small salaries. Money will always be important but I think the Brewers are more interested in cashing in their star players for talent.
Why is there no mention of the Indians? Cleveland seems to have a need for a productive outfielder. Sure they have won 12 in a row with the players they have, and expect Brantley back sometime, but they definitely have a need for an solid established player to help out the offense that has overachieved!! Pitching staff is the best in baseball this year, so why not go for it by adding a proven bat! Not sure Braun would waive his no trade clause in this instance, but Cleveland has a ton of talent to offer. Seems like a good match
I think because he’s owed 76 mill after this season and the Indians aren’t the type of team to take on that salary. Not sure if they can but doesn’t seem likely.
I guarantee the Brewers are eager to cover some owed money to Braun if it brings back some good prospects, Braun earns 10/5 rights early next season, I bet David Stearns is eager to trade him before Braun has the full day in it
Zimmer or Frazier would make for a great centerpiece in a Braun trade.
Braun and Lucroy to Boston for Vasquez, Holt and Young. I hate losing Holt but he has a lot of value and Vasquez will be a great catcher one day.
Haha seriously?
Clearly not.
Small market teams like Cleveland only get 3 to 5 yrs between retooling, and Cleveland competitive window would fit the braun contract, especially with Milwaukee throwing in some money, and braun is still one of the best overall hitters in baseball. Maybe Bradley, Aiken/Sheffield, Francisco Mejia and low level pitcher for braun. Seems like it could help both teams.
If I’m David Stearns, I take that deal immediately
If I’m Brady Aiken, I sigh that I get to work for an Astros front office guy.
Braun (Mets recoup 75% of Wrights contract through insurance) and Lucroy for Harvey, Nimmo and Darnaud
Lol no thanks. I don’t think any package of those players could get Lucroy alone.
A 27 year old struggling pitcher who only has 3 years of control til he’d walk, an always injured 27 year old catcher, and a prospect that is going to end up in a corner OF spot without the power to play there? No thanks. The Brewers are building for 3-4 years down the road, they need younger controllable guys.
10 yrs. 83R 26HR 89RBI 305BA anyone that complains ab that needs to reevaluate their own worth. Most team friendly deal when bums like Howard are getting 125 M for one season of production.
Lol by that logic, nearly everyone in the league is on a ridiculously team friendly deal.
The Braves would kill for a RH power hitting LF (Braun) and have always coveted Lucroy. What have they got to offer? Teheran, Vizcaino, Markakis, and a couple of minor league arms. Two problems though: they don’t want to pick up the payroll til next season, and Braun is missing a lot of time with his back injury.
I agree that the Braves are a great match. Not for the guys you mentioned though but they have the young prospect pitchers Brewers are supposedly seeking.
Baumer is right, none of those guys would hold the least bit of interest to Milwaukee. Start throwing around names like Newcomb, Blair, Allard, Riley, Jenkins, and Banuelos and then you’ll get the ball rolling. The payroll wouldn’t be an issue as I’m sure with the right package Milwaukee would gladly pay the rest of this season and possibly chip in for the future. As for the back injury, he’s been missing about 1 in every 6 or 7 games. Not a huge deal.