Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Rockies, Cardinals, Blue Jays
Here’s this week’s look around the baseball blogosphere:
- Chin Music looked at the Rockies’ rebuild.
- Redbird Rants ran down the Cardinals’ 50 greatest players.
- Jays Journal sees big growth for Toronto’s farm system.
- Around The Foghorn said farewell to some ex-Giants.
- TPOP is not worried about John Jaso‘s defense at first base.
- Pirates Breakdown tested the Bucs’ first base approach.
- Gardy Goes Yardy says Michael Pineda will take a big step forward.
- Bronx Bomber Blogger reacted to the Aroldis Chapman deal.
- Total Sports Live discussed Dave Dombrowski.
- MLB Reports checked in on the Giants.
- Wayniac Nation revealed its IBWAA Hall Of Fame ballot.
- Yankees Unscripted made some New Year’s resolutions for the Bombers.
- Outside Pitch reflected on Yoenis Cespedes‘ time with the Mets.
- Brew Crew Ball reviewed the Brewers’ 2015.
- Roto Professor isn’t impressed with the Reds’ return on Chapman.
- Baseball Essential pondered the Cubs’ usage of Javier Baez.
- Pinstriped Prospects is excited about Billy Fleming.
Please send submissions to Zach at ZachBBWI@gmail.com.
Quick Hits: Dodgers, Tigers, Indians
With Scott Kazmir joining some combination of Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-jin Ryu, Brett Anderson and Alex Wood (along with righty Kenta Maeda), the Dodgers‘ rotation is strongly left-handed, MLB.com’s Tracy Ringolsby notes. Historically, Ringolsby argues, there’s been little evidence that relying heavily on left-handed starters is a disadvantage. He notes that the 1965 Dodgers, for example, won the World Series with a team that got 112 starts from lefties. That’s not to say that having a lefty-heavy rotation creates an obvious advantage either, however — the 2004 Royals started lefties 108 times and lost 104 games that season. Here are more quick notes from around the game.
- The Tigers‘ lineup and bench, meanwhile, are heavily right-handed, but they’re designed that way on in order to give Brad Ausmus plenty of late-inning flexibility, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes. Many of the Tigers’ key offensive players (like Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez and Ian Kinsler, all of them righties who hit righties very well last year) are not candidates to be lifted for a pinch-hitter, regardless of the handedness of the pitcher. In fact, the only regular who might be a candidate to be lifted is lefty Anthony Gose, who could be removed if a left-handed reliever is on the hill. That means the Tigers simply don’t need many lefty hitters.
- Indians manager Terry Francona did not want the team to lose any of its best starting pitching, and the team isn’t close to a significant deal to add a hitter, writes Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer. They will, however, continue to look for relievers. Pluto also notes that the Indians preferred Mike Napoli (with whom they recently agreed to terms) at first base rather than fellow free agent Justin Morneau because Napoli is right-handed.
Poll: The Jeff Samardzija And Mike Leake Contracts
Early last month, the Giants agreed to terms on a long-term contract with veteran righty Jeff Samardzija. Two weeks later, the Cardinals agreed to terms with another veteran righty, Mike Leake. The two contracts were identical in duration (five years) and similar in value ($90MM for Samardzija, $80MM for Leake). They were also interrelated — the Giants were the team that most recently employed Leake before the Cardinals signed him, while the Cardinals were connected to Samardzija before the Giants signed him. Both pitchers were a tier below David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann, all of whom received nine-figure deals. Beyond those similarities, however, lie a number of key differences about what, exactly, their contracts attempted to accomplish.
Of the two pitchers, Samardzija is widely perceived as having greater upside — with his mid-90s velocity, tough slider and 6’5″ frame, many of his attributes match those of an ace. He will, however, be 31 this month, and his performances so far in his career have not matched that ace profile. His 2015 season with the White Sox, in particular, was extremely disappointing — he posted a 4.96 ERA, and while ERA estimators suggested that figure could have been somewhat better, his K/9 has plummeted from 9.3 in 2012 to 6.9 last season, while his ground ball rate fell to a mere 39%.
On the bright side, Samardzija has been one of the game’s most durable starters, throwing over 210 innings in each of the past three seasons. And as long as he stays healthy, he seems likely to get at least somewhat better results in the next few years than he got in 2015, when he had to pitch in front of a poor defense and in a tough ballpark in a DH league. Samardzija’s 2015 season wasn’t a good one, but it also represented something of a perfect storm. But the error bar on Samardzija’s future performance is large, and where he lands might depend somewhat on Giants coaches’ ability to help him get back to missing bats, and to inducing ground balls when he doesn’t.
Like Samardzija, Leake has reliably eaten innings. Unlike Samardzija, he’s been very consistent, posting ERAs well below four in each of the last three seasons and regularly inducing ground balls at around a 50% clip. He also limits walks, which prevents opposing batters from doing too much damage against him, and he helps himself by fielding and hitting very well. Leake is also one of the offseason’s youngest free agents — he only turned 28 in November and could well have several prime-era seasons ahead. Also, his contract is worth $10MM less than Samardzija’s (although Samardzija’s limited no-trade clause is preferable to Leake’s full no-trade).
If Samardzija looks like an ace, though, Leake looks like something far less than that. While he isn’t quite a soft-tosser, his stuff isn’t at all overwhelming, and he’s small, at 5’10” — Leake isn’t a lefty, but he’s always seemed like he should be one. Leake has obviously reached the point in his career where it’s wise to judge him more on his performance record than on his profile, but not all the indicators there are positive, either. While Samardzija’s ability to strike batters out has diminished in recent seasons, Leake has never really had that ability, and his K/9 dropped to a mere 5.6 in 2015. Career paths are hard to predict, but it’s difficult to imagine Leake becoming anything close to an ace as he gets older. He does, however, seem more likely than Samardzija to provide league-average innings over the course of his contract.
So which contract do you prefer? Which player’s deal was best for his team?
East Notes: Mets, Yankees, Orioles
Jon Heyman has left his post at CBS Sports, Awful Announcing’s Joe Lucia writes, noting that Heyman’s gig at MLB Network will not be affected. He also contributes to WFAN in New York. Heyman, who has broken news about innumerable MLB trades and signings, has been one of MLBTR’s most-cited reporters in the past several years, and his tweets and columns have been invaluable to us. We at MLBTR wish him the best of luck in whatever endeavors await him. Here are a couple quick notes from the East divisions.
- The Yankees and Mets should consider a trade in which the Mets get Andrew Miller and Brett Gardner, while the Yankees get Zack Wheeler, Rafael Montero and Alejandro De Aza, John Harper of the New York Daily News writes. It would be highly unusual for the Mets to deal De Aza just after signing him, and under MLB rules, he would have to provide his consent. Beyond that, it’s a proposal that’s at least interesting — the Mets could pair Miller with Jeurys Familia to strengthen their bullpen, and Gardner would provide a good, versatile outfield option. Wheeler, meanwhile, is highly talented but perhaps somewhat expendable, given that he’ll be out until June while recovery from Tommy John surgery and is only controllable for four more seasons, and that the Mets are loaded with young pitching. The Yankees would be taking on a fair amount of risk in trading two proven players for two pitchers who missed most or all of the 2015 season. Still, Wheeler and Montero would give the Yankees’ pitching staff an infusion of youth and upside. Of course, as Harper notes, the Mets might fear the possibility of Wheeler blossoming into an ace on the other side of town.
- The Orioles can’t afford to wait much longer for Chris Davis as they attempt to set their roster for 2016, Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun writes. “Everybody knows” that the Orioles would still give Davis the $150MM deal they initially offered, even though they technically rescinded it. In the meantime, though, it’s unlikely the Orioles would extend another large offer to a different free agent until they know whether Davis is coming back. In the meantime, the Orioles have acquired Mark Trumbo partially as a way of guarding themselves against the possibility Davis signs elsewhere.
Cafardo On Free Agency, Miller, Melancon, Parra
Here are a few highlights from the latest column by Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:
- Cafardo begins with a discussion of why many of the top available hitters on the free agent market haven’t signed yet (a question we also discussed a bit today). Cafardo quotes Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette, who argues that part of the problem might be a reluctance to spend big given the spotty history of “mega-deals” for hitters. Cafardo notes, however, that there are a number of teams with holes, and that the likes of Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes Chris Davis and Alex Gordon are ultimately likely to get their “mega-deals” from someone.
- The Yankees have been asking for a top young starter in return for Andrew Miller. Teams haven’t been willing to meet that price, so it seems likely the Yankees will keep him. (Yankees exec Brian Cashman has already said he intends to keep Miller.)
- Another top reliever who might be staying put is Mark Melancon, Cafardo writes. The Pirates have made Melancon (who will be paid handsomely in his last year before free agency eligibility) available, but thus far he’s still with the Bucs.
- From a statistical perspective, Gerardo Parra‘s defense has taken enormous steps backward in the past two years — UZR, for example, had him at +31.1 runs in 2013 and -18.1 runs last season, while Defensive Runs Saved had him dropping from 41 runs to -10 over that period. But scouts aren’t convinced those numbers represent a real change in his abilities, Cafardo writes. “He’s still one of the best defensive outfielders in the game,” says an AL scout. “He takes very good routes to balls, and as a pitcher or manager, you feel comfortable with him out there.” The Rockies and Royals seem like possibilities for Parra.
Checking In On Last Year’s Lowest-Scoring Offenses
On January 2 of last year, MLBTR’s Zach Links looked at the lowest-scoring offenses in the 2014 season and what they had done that winter to improve. In 2015, the five lowest-scoring teams in baseball were the Braves (573 runs), Marlins (613), White Sox (622), Phillies (626) and Reds (640). What’s perhaps most striking about that list in comparison to the five teams Zach profiled (the Padres, Braves, Reds, Rays and Cubs) is that there are more teams than usual simply not acting like improving for the upcoming season is a top priority. The Braves and Phillies headed into the 2015-16 offseason already in the midst of obvious rebuilds; the Reds, having traded Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman this winter, now appear to be close to that status. Meanwhile, the Marlins continue to exist in a state of flux. Only the White Sox have made decisive moves to improve their run-scoring.
It should, perhaps, be noted that many of the top hitters in this winter’s free agent class remain on the market, with Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Davis and Alex Gordon yet to find new teams. A team looking to upgrade its offense will have more opportunities to do so this month. But with a few exceptions (like the Cardinals, who actually finished 24th in the Majors and 11th in the NL in runs scored with 647 despite winning more regular-season games than any other team), it looks like many of the teams most likely to sign one of those players are teams whose offenses were already good.
With that in mind, though, there are plenty of interesting things even rebuilding teams can do with their offenses, including acquiring prospects and clearing space for young players. So let’s look in on what 2015’s lowest-scoring teams have done this offseason.
- Braves – Atlanta re-signed A.J. Pierzynski and signed Tyler Flowers, giving them a pair of veteran backstops to compensate for the departure of former top prospect Christian Bethancourt, who they shipped to San Diego. They also made a couple small signings of veterans Gordon Beckham and Emilio Bonifacio to shore up a shaky infield and bench, and they added a couple hitters via minor league free agency, Nate Freiman and Ryan Lavarnway (actually a re-signing), who could provide a bit of upside. Replacing Andrelton Simmons with Erick Aybar obviously will hurt defensively, but might not make much difference on offense. The Braves’ key move to help their hitting, though, was their trade of Shelby Miller to Arizona for a package that included Ender Inciarte (an already-good outfielder who will likely replace the departed Cameron Maybin if he doesn’t head elsewhere in another trade) and 2015 No. 1 pick Dansby Swanson. If Swanson develops, he could have a profound effect on the Braves’ future offensively.
- Marlins – Miami re-signed Ichiro Suzuki and Jeff Mathis, and has otherwise had a quiet offseason in which it will return many of the hitters it featured last year. That might not be all bad, of course — Giancarlo Stanton only played in 74 games in 2015, and a full season from him would be a huge help. The Marlins’ other two young outfielders, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, were much better in the second half of 2015 in the first, and they (along with Stanton and Dee Gordon) could help anchor a Marlins offense that looks likely to score more runs than it did last year.
- White Sox – The White Sox are, in some ways, this offseason’s equivalent of the 2014-15 Padres — the team taking the most urgent action to address an offense that struggled the previous season. Unlike the Padres, whose series of trades for a bunch of square pegs last winter had a deleterious effect on the franchise, the White Sox’ moves seem to have been well chosen. Chicago’s performances at both second base and third base were among the worst in baseball in 2015, and their deals for Brett Lawrie and especially Frazier were decisive moves to strengthen both positions. The additions of Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro perhaps weren’t as dramatic or as likely to be effective, but those players will provide help at another position at which the White Sox struggled. The team has shown at least some interest in many of the top free agent bats available this offseason, and it could also still potentially use a shortstop.
- Phillies – Philadelphia’s main moves this offseason (such as their trade of Ken Giles for a package that included Vincent Velasquez and Mark Appel, and their deals for rotation-filling pitchers Charlie Morton and Jeremy Hellickson) have mostly been oriented around pitching, but they’ve made a few small moves that could help their offense as well. Outfielder Tyler Goeddel, selected from the Rays with the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft, could potentially provide a bit of help. Waiver claim Peter Bourjos should figure in their outfield plans as well, although he’s not likely to hit much.
- Reds – Cincinnati hasn’t made any big-league signings this offseason, and the defining moves of their winter have been their trades of Frazier and Chapman, which have returned two grab bags of young players. Jose Peraza, the key to the Frazier deal, could collect plenty of at-bats for the Reds in 2016, particularly if the team is ever able to deal Brandon Phillips, but Peraza is a light hitter who figures to make most of his offensive impact with his speed. Scott Schebler, a lefty-hitting outfielder acquired in that same deal, could help somewhat, although his upside appears to be limited. The prospect from the Chapman trade most likely to help the Reds’ offense in 2016 is third baseman Eric Jagielo, although he hasn’t yet played at the Triple-A level and might not reach Cincinnati until late in the season. In the Rule 5 Draft, the Reds grabbed Jake Cave, another lefty-hitting outfielder; he did not hit well at Double-A last year and doesn’t seem like a great bet to add much offense, at least not right away. The Reds don’t look to have improved their offense enough to compensate for Frazier’s departure. They are, however, in an earlier stage of rebuilding or re-tooling than the Braves or Phillies are (or perhaps they’ve just approached it somewhat less aggressively). They should also benefit next season from better health — having Devin Mesoraco behind the dish could make a big difference.
AL Notes: Hall Of Fame, Infante, Rays
Baseball writers should stop acting as “moral gatekeepers” for the Hall Of Fame, an indignant Buster Olney of ESPN writes (Insider-only). Specifically, he says, they should stop invoking the character clause, and the many cases of writers switching their votes on players with PED histories suggests that they aren’t applying the character clause consistently anyway. Also, he says, there’s no way to truly know who in the PED era actually used (and to what extent) and who didn’t, and writers shouldn’t act as arbiters of history, keeping top players out of the Hall while playing the role of “traffic cops of history.” Most flagrant is the case of Astros slugger Jeff Bagwell, who some commentators have dismissed due to PED concerns despite a total lack of evidence that he actually used them. Here are more quick notes on the American League.
- Royals infielder Omar Infante had surgery on his elbow in November, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports writes. Infante is expected to be healthy for Spring Training. The Royals think the surgery will help Infante with the shoulder troubles that bothered him last season, in which he played in 124 games and hit a horrific .220/.234/.318. (Infante also had back and oblique issues, and suffered a groin strain.) As Morosi notes, Infante will likely get the opportunity to win the Royals’ second-base job again next season.
- The Rays incurred relatively heavy losses in the Rule 5 Draft in 2015, Marc Topkin writes for Baseball America. The Phillies took outfielder Tyler Goeddel with the first overall pick, marking the second consectuive year the top player selected in the Rule 5 came from the Rays organization. (The Diamondbacks took catcher Oscar Hernandez with the first pick in 2014.) And the Rays lost another outfielder, Joey Rickard, with the eighth pick. The Rays did protect five players, including top prospect Blake Snell, from the draft. “Their ceilings in our mind weren’t as high as the five guys we protected and that’s what it comes down to,” Rays farm director Mitch Lukevics says of Goeddel and Rickard. “We have 40 spots, and someone is 41, someone is 42, someone is 43.”
Exploring January Free Agent Signings
The month of January isn’t typically a big month for free agent signings, but this year, it might almost have to be. An uncharacteristic number of big-name free agents are still available, including Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon, Ian Desmond, Wei-Yin Chen, Dexter Fowler, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo and Howie Kendrick, among others, remain available. By this point in the year, key free agents have usually already signed, but this winter, many teams will be doing their offseason shopping well after Christmas.
Too see the difference between this year and previous winters, here’s a look at key January transactions from the last five seasons, via MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker. As we’ll see, January frequently contains a bit of drama, and top free agents do sometimes wait to sign. None of the last five offseasons have seen the kind of free agent movement that seems likely in the coming weeks, however.
- 2015: The only significant free agent move in January was indeed a big one: the Nationals’ agreement with Max Scherzer to a seven-year, $210MM deal on the 19th. Beyond that, the largest deal was the Astros’ $8MM pact with Colby Rasmus. James Shields ($75MM) and Francisco Rodriguez ($13MM) were the only key free agents who signed in February.
- 2014: This was the recent offseason with the most post-New Year’s activity. The Yankees signed Masahiro Tanaka to a $155MM contract in late January, and the Brewers got Matt Garza on a four-year, $50MM deal at around the same time. In addition, James Loney agreed to a three-year, $21MM pact with the Rays, who also signed Grant Balfour for two years and $12MM. A number of key free agent signings (Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo, A.J. Burnett, Fernando Rodney, Nelson Cruz) were delayed until February, while Ervin Santana (whose market, like that of Cruz, was depressed by the qualifying offer) did not sign until March. Two other qualifying offer free agents, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, did not sign until after the season had begun.
- 2013: Nick Swisher and Edwin Jackson both signed right after New Year’s, each getting four-year deals in excess of $50MM. Later that month, Rafael Soriano and Adam LaRoche each got two-year deals in the $20MM-$30MM range. Two free agents with qualifying offers attached, Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse, signed later.
- 2012: The Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a huge nine-year, $214MM contract in late January. The other key free agent deals that month were those of Coco Crisp and Hiroki Kuroda, both of them comparatively minimal in value. In early February, Jackson agreed to a one-year, $11MM deal with the Nationals.
- 2011: Soon after the new year, Adrian Beltre agreed to a five-year, $80MM deal with Texas. Later in the month, Soriano got three years and $35MM from the Yankees. The only significant February signing was Vladimir Guerrero‘s one-year, $8MM deal with the Orioles.
An obvious common denominator with many of these signings was that a number of key players were represented by Scott Boras, including Scherzer, Fielder, Beltre, Bourn, Jackson, Lohse, Soriano, Rodriguez, Drew and Morales. As is widely known, Boras operates on his own timeline, and his clients’ frequent late signings reflect that. For this year, that’s worth keeping in mind for Davis, Chen and Kennedy.
The other obvious common denominator is the qualifying offer, which had obvious effects on free agents like Bourn, Lohse, Santana, Cruz, Drew and Morales. The qualifying offer could end up having a significant effect on the markets of a few current free agents, like Kennedy.
Still, those two factors do not explain the logjam of free agents currently on the market. Most of them (Upton, Cespedes, Gordon, Desmond and so on) are not Boras clients. And many free agents who might have been most affected by the qualifying offer (Marco Estrada, Rasmus, Matt Wieters, Brett Anderson) either already signed or accepted their QOs.
In any case, this year’s free agent market figures to be considerably busier in January (or even later) than it typically is. In a recent column, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal explored reasons why the market has been so slow. Some usual big spenders, like the Yankees and Angels, have been relatively quiet on the free agent market. In addition, the trade market has perhaps been a factor — recent deals involving Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Todd Frazier, Andrelton Simmons, Shelby Miller and Ken Giles, for example, have shown that the trade market has had plenty of good talent available. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd implied last month, too, the signing of one of the many numerous bats available via free agency could lead to a run on the rest. In the meantime, though, a number of stars still need homes, so expect plenty of activity in the coming month.
Quick Hits: Mets, Orioles, Indians
If the Mets are to sustain the success they enjoyed in 2015 in future seasons, they’ll need to depend on their farm system to continue churning out talent, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post writes. The Mets have added key players to their active roster in each of the past several years, including Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Michael Conforto last season. (They also used a number of prospects to help them acquire key big-league talent down the stretch in 2015, most notably Michael Fulmer in the Yoenis Cespedes trade.) They’ll continue to lean on a farm system that, after the graduations of a number of top pitching talents, is heavy on position players like Gavin Cecchini, Dilson Herrera and Brandon Nimmo. Here’s more from throughout the game.
- The list of key position players who remain unsigned (Cespedes, Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Chris Davis) raises questions about whether any of them could sign for significantly less or for significantly fewer years than anticipated, MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski writes. It remains unclear whether Davis and the Orioles could revisit their contract discussions — as ESPN’s Buster Olney reported last week, the O’s rescinded their $150MM offer to Davis, and while there could be more talks between the two sides, some within the organization might feel that they don’t need to offer so much again if other teams aren’t entering the bidding at $150MM or more.
- The Indians ultimately signed Mike Napoli rather than free agent slugger Pedro Alvarez because Napoli is a right-handed hitter and because he improved their defense, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer writes. Napoli, a solid defensive first baseman, allowed the Indians to move Carlos Santana to DH. Alvarez, a huge defensive liability last year in Pittsburgh, might well have had to play DH himself.
Week In Review: 12/26/15 – 1/1/16
As we say goodbye to 2015 here at MLBTR, here’s a look back at the past week.
Key Moves
- The Dodgers agreed to terms with Japanese righty Kenta Maeda. They also signed lefty Scott Kazmir to a three-year deal.
- The Yankees acquired closer Aroldis Chapman from the Reds for prospects Eric Jagielo, Tony Renda, Rookie Davis and Caleb Cotham.
Signings / Re-signings
- Nationals – IF Stephen Drew (one year)
- Athletics – P Henderson Alvarez (one year)
Designated For Assignment
- Dodgers – OF Daniel Fields (link)
- Athletics – P Arnold Leon (link)
Key Minor League Signings
- Astros – OF Eury Perez (link)
- Braves – P Kyle Kendrick (link), P Alex Torres (link)
- Rangers – C Michael McKenry (link)
- Rockies – P Yohan Flande (link)
- Dodgers – UT Elian Herrera (link)