Quick Hits: Free Agents, Pompey, Yankees
Here’s some news from around baseball as we wrap up the first weekend of 2016…
- “So many teams have spent their money on pitching that they don’t have much left for hitting,” an executive tells John Perrotto of TodaysKnuckleball.com in explaining why so many of the biggest free agent bats are still available. This could mean that some of the notable names may end up for signing than less than expected due to lack of a hot market. Then again, the inverse could also be true — an unexpected trade or injury could suddenly create a suitor willing to pay top dollar to fill a lineup need. Perrotto’s piece also includes his guesses about where 10 of the top remaining free agents will land.
- The Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Orioles and White Sox seem to be the teams most poised to make a big move or two in January, MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince writes.
- Dalton Pompey is an important depth piece for the Blue Jays in 2016 and a big part of their future outfield plans, MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm writes as part of a reader mailbag. Given Ben Revere‘s rising arbitration price tag and the fact that Jose Bautista is a free agent next winter, Pompey may be called upon as a regular in 2017, so Chisholm doubts the Jays would make Pompey a trade chip unless they’re able to obtain a big return. While Pompey hasn’t shown much in limited MLB action, he’s also just 23 and a year removed from being a consensus top-50 (or better) prospect.
- Also from Chisholm’s piece, he lists the 11 member of the Blue Jays‘ 40-man roster who are out of options, with outfielder Ezequiel Carrera, catcher A.J. Jimenez, and righty relievers Steve Delabar and Chad Jenkins standing out as “ones to watch” on the roster bubble. The Jays would ideally like to use Jimenez in Triple-A while Carrera, Delabar and Jenkins will be in the mix for jobs on the Opening Day roster.
- In another reader mailbag, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch addresses the idea of whether or not the Yankees could retain the likes of Alex Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira or Carlos Beltran on one-year contracts after their expensive multi-year deals expire within the next two seasons. Hoch feels it’s probably a longshot for any of them to remain in New York since the team wants a younger team and more roster flexibility — Greg Bird and Aaron Judge are poised to replace Teixeira and Beltran, for instance. Sabathia may be the best candidate to be retained given how expensive pitching is, though that also may be unlikely given Sabathia’s ongoing knee issues.
AL Notes: Angels, Freeman, Astros, Vargas
It was on this day in 1973 that George Steinbrenner and a group of investors purchased the Yankees from CBS. While the amount of money in the game has unquestionably risen by leaps and bounds in the last 43 years, it’s still stunning to realize that Steinbrenner and company paid only $10MM to buy a team that Forbes now values a whopping $1.85 billion in their most recent ranking of the world’s most valuable sports franchises. (The Yankees tied with the Dallas Cowboys for third on that list, by the way, behind only soccer giants Manchester United and Real Madrid.) Here’s some news from around the American League…
- With the Angels uneasy about surpassing the luxury tax threshold, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez looks at how the club can upgrade itself. Gonzalez thinks the Halos will move a starter (at least one of Hector Santiago, C.J. Wilson, Tyler Skaggs, Nick Tropeano or Matt Shoemaker) in order to acquire a left fielder or second baseman. Then again, the Angels may also be comfortable in having Johnny Giavotella return as the regular second baseman so that position may not be as major an area of need.
- A Craig Gentry/Daniel Nava platoon is currently in the cards for left field, though Gonzalez won’t rule out the idea of Anaheim signing a big name like Justin Upton, Alex Gordon or Yoenis Cespedes. With the Halos only around $4MM under the tax limit, however, signing any of those players (or even second-tier outfielders like Gerardo Parra or Denard Span) would put the club in danger of exceeding the tax threshold in 2017 as well, and thus paying a bigger penalty. With a much thinner free agent class in 2016-17, however, Gonzalez believes “this is the time to strike” for the Angels to land a big left field bat, and they’ll have some hope of getting under the tax limit with roughly $48MM coming off the books next winter.
- An Astros trade for Freddie Freeman is “simply not going to happen,” a source tells ESPN’s Jim Bowden (subscription-only column). The Astros and Braves had discussions about the first baseman earlier this winter, though those talks “went nowhere” and Atlanta GM John Coppolella has since flatly denied the possibility of Freeman playing elsewhere in 2016. While Freeman would check a lot of boxes for Houston, it would clearly take a major trade package to pry him away from the Braves, and the Astros may have already expended a lot of their available prospect capital in their trade for Ken Giles.
- Bowden’s piece examines all 30 teams and the missing piece (or pieces) Bowden feels they still need to address on their roster. For instance, Bowden isn’t sold on Rusney Castillo and thinks the Red Sox should make a play for Justin Upton, though he’s heard that the Sox are “not looking to make any more moves.”
- There were some rumors swirling about the Twins dealing Kennys Vargas to Japan or Korea earlier this winter, though MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger feels it would be a mistake for Minnesota to move Vargas while he still has a minor league option remaining. Still, Vargas is running out of time to show he belongs on the 25-man roster, especially now that the Twins have signed Byung-ho Park.
NL East Notes: Prospects, Phillies, Giles, Mets
Here’s the latest from around the NL East…
- The top three prospects involved in trades this offseason were all acquired by the Braves, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper writes. Dansby Swanson, Sean Newcomb and Aaron Blair sit atop Cooper’s ranking of the top 25 prospects who were dealt this winter. Swanson and Blair came to Atlanta as part of the Shelby Miller trade with Arizona while Newcomb was part of the package that came to the Braves in the Andrelton Simmons deal with the Angels.
- With the Phillies embarking on a full-fledged rebuild, it wouldn’t have made sense for the club to sign a major free agent simply in the name of boosting attendance, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes as part of a reader mailbag. The organization has shown that it will spend heavily to support a contender, so Zolecki doesn’t doubt that the big signings will follow once a young core of talent is again in place.
- Zolecki also gives his take on the Ken Giles trade, opining that the Phillies did well in landing five young starting pitchers given the cost of pitching in today’s game. Developing even one mid-range arm out of the quintet will provide the Phils with more value than having a star closer would in a rebuilding season. When the Phillies are ready to contend again, Zolecki notes, it will also be much easier (and cheaper) to find another closer than it would be to add rotation help.
- The Mets haven’t yet decided on which internal candidates will receive Spring Training invitations to their big league camp, ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin reports (via Twitter). In a follow-up tweet, Rubin gives his take on which players will be invited.
- In NL East news from earlier today, the Braves are trying to trade at least one of Michael Bourn or Nick Swisher.
Braves Trying To Deal At Least One Of Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher
The Braves are looking to trade at least one of Michael Bourn or Nick Swisher before Opening Day and they’re willing to “to eat a significant portion of the salary” owed to either player to facilitate a deal, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports.
Given how aggressive Atlanta has already been on the trade market this winter, it’s no surprise that the rebuilding club is exploring getting at least some of the money owed to those two veterans off the team’s books. Swisher is owed $15MM in 2016 and he has a $14MM vesting option for 2017 that will be guaranteed if he makes 550 plate appearances next season and passes an end-of-year physical. Bourn is owed $14MM in 2016 with a $12MM vesting option for 2017 that also becomes guaranteed at the 550-PA plateau. Of the $29MM owed to the duo in 2016, however, $10MM will be covered by the Indians as part of the trade that brought both men to Atlanta in exchange for Chris Johnson last August.
Neither of those options seem particularly likely to vest while the two players are on Atlanta’s roster given how Freddie Freeman is locked in at first base and the starting outfield is slated to consist of Hector Olivera, Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis. Emilio Bonifacio is also on hand as a low-cost backup center fielder, so Bowman thinks Bourn could be more expendable than Swisher, who can theoretically provide more value as a backup at first and both corner slots.
The big question about Swisher, however, is whether he’d be productive (or even able to play) over a full season given his surgically-repaired knees, even on a part-time basis. It’s worth noting that Bourn has also had his share of injury problems, as hamstring issues have undoubtedly played a role in his declining defense and stolen-base statistics over the last two seasons.
Between the injuries and struggles at the plate, Bourn (0.4 fWAR in 2014-15) and Swisher (-2.3 fWAR) are far from sterling trade candidates. It’s not completely out of the question, however, that the Braves could find a trade partner since they’re willing to eat some money. If the Braves are willing to pay as much as half of either player’s salary, and assuming Cleveland’s $10MM contribution is being split equally, Swisher and Bourn now cost in the neighborhood of $5MM and $4.5MM, respectively, for 2016. Those could be palatable prices for clubs looking for experienced veterans in backup roles, especially if there’s a team that believes Bourn or Swisher could rebound in a new environment.
Ohio Notes: Arroyo, Rodriguez, Bruce, Reds, Tribe
Here are some notes from the Buckeye State’s two teams…
- The Reds still have an interest in a reunion with Bronson Arroyo, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon tweets. Cincinnati has been linked to the veteran righty on a couple of occasions this offseason, though GM Dick Williams has stated that his club’s interest is dependent on whether or not Arroyo is recovered from his Tommy John surgery. Arroyo hasn’t pitched since June 2014 due to that surgery yet the Reds are one of at least seven teams who have checked in on his status.
- Also from Sheldon, outfielder Yorman Rodriguez will get a long look during Spring Training given the Reds‘ needs in the outfield and Rodriguez’s out-of-options contract status. Rodriguez originally signed with the Reds as a 16-year-old in 2008 for $2.5MM, then a record bonus for Venezuelan amateurs. He’s hit .261/.314/.399 with 50 homers over 2546 minor league plate appearances and his MLB experience consists of an 11-game cup of coffee with the Reds in 2014. Baseball America ranked him as Cincinnati’s 10th-best prospect prior to the 2015 season, and in a November chat about the Reds’ farm system, BA’s J.J. Cooper predicted Rodriguez will be the Reds’ Opening Day left fielder.
- Since the Reds and Indians recently had discussions about Todd Frazier before the third baseman was dealt to Chicago, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer figures that Jay Bruce‘s name probably also came up given the Tribe’s need for outfielders. That said, Hoynes doubts Bruce was or is a fit for Cleveland due to his notable salary ($12.5MM in 2016 and a $13MM club option for 2017 with a $1MM buyout) and inconsistent play. For what it’s worth, the Indians aren’t one of the eight teams on Bruce’s no-trade list.
- The Indians have used information provided by MLB Advanced Media’s new Statcast player-tracking technology when evaluating players this winter, GM Mike Chernoff tells MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. While “scouts have been measuring tools of players for a long time, and they’re really good at it,” Chernoff said Statcast “is a way to get a slightly more accurate reading on some of those things. This should be a huge relief for scouts and a huge complement to what they do. [It] allows a scout to process the information rather than just have to transmit information to whoever is going to be reading his report.”
MLBTR Originals
A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:
- So far this offseason, 69 players have signed for a total of $1.609B. Last week, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd asked readers to weigh in on how high free agent spending will go. More than 60% of you said that total free agent spending will top $2.5B when all is said and done this winter.
- Which free agent outfielder would you rather sign: Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon, or Justin Upton? MLBTR’s Steve Adams pitted the three free agents against each other and the results were actually pretty close between all three.
- The month of January isn’t typically a big month for free agent signings, but this year, things could be very different. In anticipation of what should be a very exciting month, MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth looked back at major activity from Januarys past.
- What have last year’s lowest-scoring offenses done to improve in 2016? Charlie delved into the moves made by the Braves, Marlins, White Sox, Phillies, and Reds.
- Free agent hurlers Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake both came away with sizable paydays this winter. On Saturday, Charlie asked MLBTR readers which contract they prefer: Shark’s five-year, $90MM pact or Leake’s five-year, $80MM deal.
- On Tuesday, Steve hosted a chat and discussed the White Sox, Aroldis Chapman, the Nationals, and more. On New Year’s Eve, Jeff fielded a wide range of questions from MLBTR readers.
- On Sunday morning, MLBTR featured the best of the baseball blogosphere in our weekly segment, Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
AL East Notes: Alvarez, Davis, Red Sox
The Orioles should strongly consider signing free agent slugger Pedro Alvarez, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com opines. However, adding Alvarez could complicate things for the O’s should Chris Davis come back in the picture. If Davis is re-signed and Alvarez is slotted in at DH, that would put Mark Trumbo in right field, and that’s a defensive liability that manager Buck Showalter might not be comfortable with.
If the O’s do not re-sign Davis, then Alvarez would make plenty of sense. The 28-year-old would help restore the power in Baltimore’s lineup and his bat would be a good fit for the AL East since Camden Yards and Yankee Stadium are two of the best parks for left-handed home runs.
While we wait to see how things progress with the Orioles and Alvarez (and Davis), here’s more out of the AL East:
- The Orioles showed Davis some loyalty by giving him his first chance to consistently play every day. He, of course, repaid that by turning into one of the league’s top home run hitters. Now, Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com wonders if loyalty will play into Davis’ ongoing free agency. Davis, 30 in March, is coming off a 47-homer season in which he batted .262/.361/.562 and is also the Major League leader in home runs dating back to 2012.
- In today’s mailbag, a reader asked Ian Browne of MLB.com about his thoughts on when Yoan Moncada might make his MLB debut for the Red Sox. Browne anticipates that Moncada will get to Double-A before the end of 2016 and reach Fenway Park at some point in 2017. In the long term, third base could be a good fit for Moncada, but he has the athleticism to play elsewhere if needed.
- Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald has three ideas to improve the Red Sox‘s roster. Among them: trading Rusney Castillo and signing Alex Gordon.
Latest On Cliff Lee
Free agent pitcher Cliff Lee would need a “perfect fit” in order to leave home and make a comeback, agent Darek Braunecker told MLB Network Radio (audio link). Braunecker also said that he isn’t certain whether Lee will do a full showcase workout for teams but whenever (or however) he does show his stuff, he’ll be 100% when that time comes.
Lee has drawn interest from at least half the league so far this season, according to Jon Heyman. The veteran was said to be seeking a one-year, major league deal, but now it appears that he’s at least considering sitting out the 2016 season entirely. If Lee does decide to pitch this year, the Marlins are one of the clubs known to have some level of interest.
Lee, 37, is looking to make his way back from a flexor tendon tear without surgery and while there’s no guarantee that he can get back to his old form, he offers unmatched upside among the free agent bounceback candidates. It’s far from clear, of course, whether teams are willing at present to commit big dollars to Lee. For what it’s worth, Heyman indicated earlier this offseason that Lee could command more than many would expect him to.
Though he only put up a 3.65 earned run average in his 81 1/3 innings in 2014, Lee carried a 6.00 K:BB rate and drew ratings from metrics that valued his effort in the 3.00 earned-per-nine range. Of course, Lee also showed much more prior to that season. He racked up over 220 frames per season over 2011 through 2013, working to a cumulative 2.80 ERA in that span while striking out a batter per inning and walking less than one-and-a-half per nine.
Morosi On Nationals, Storen, Brewers
Earlier today, we noted that the Padres are in active discussions with free agent shortstop Ian Desmond, as reported by Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. From a purely baseball perspective, Desmond would make a world of sense for San Diego given the offensive pop he can provide at his position. However, one has to imagine that the Padres are wary of the price tag Desmond carries. The Padres also might not be crazy about forking over that kind of cash if they don’t believe that they can contend in 2016.
Here’s a look at a couple more items from Morosi’s Sunday article:
- The Nationals are still working to trade Drew Storen, Morosi writes. MLBTR projects Storen to earn $8.8MM in his final year of arbitration, a number that is probably more than they’d like to pay a set-up man and higher than suitors would be comfortable with paying. Still, the Nats now have Shawn Kelley, Trevor Gott, Yusmeiro Petit, and left-hander Oliver Perez in the bullpen and there’s not a clear need for him there. Storen, theoretically, would serve as Jonathan Papelbon‘s set-up man, but that’s a role that he struggled with after the 2015 trade deadline.
- Look for the Brewers to move Khris Davis at the July trade deadline or even before that point, Morosi writes. The Brewers could, theoretically, move him now, but there are many quality free agent outfielders still on the board for teams with a need. Davis, 28, slashed .247/.323/.505 with 27 homers across 440 plate appearances last season. The left fielder won’t be arbitration eligible until after the 2016 season. First-year GM David Stearns appears set on a rebuild and moving the valuable Davis would be a good place to start.
Astros, Dallas Keuchel Have Not Talked Extension This Offseason
The Astros and reigning AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel have not discussed a contract extension this winter, agent Darek Braunecker tells MLB Network Radio (via Twitter). The two sides have talked about a new deal in the past, but that apparently hasn’t taken place in the last couple of months.
“At this point, we have not engaged the club in any sort of long-term discussions. It’s common knowledge that we had some discussion during the season last year and it was just preliminary seeing where one another stood. They approached us, kicked the tires, and got a sense where both parties were at that time,” Braunecker said.
The 28-year-old Keuchel was fighting for a rotation spot as recently as Spring Training 2014, but his remarkable transformation into a bona fide ace atop the Houston rotation was completed with a dominant follow-up to a breakout 2014 season. Keuchel led the AL with 232 innings (trailing only Clayton Kershaw’s 232 2/3 innings for the MLB lead) and worked to a pristine 2.48 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and an AL-best 61.7 percent ground-ball rate.
Keuchel is eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason and is set for a significant payout in 2016 thanks to his dominant performance in 2015 capped by a Cy Young award. A deal could make sense for both sides, but Keuchel will be demanding a hefty pay day. The hurler is currently slated to hit the open market heading into his age-31 season and the Astros, presumably, would want to lock down at least one of his free agency years. Delaying his free agency by even one year would probably put a five-year max on the free-agent deal Keuchel could secure, as teams rarely guarantee pitchers’ age-37 seasons in long-term deals. Then again, the two sides could conceivably work out a deal that only covers Keuchel’s arbitration years, leaving his potential future free agent fortune unaffected.