TODAY: There’s still work left between Bautista and the Jays, and both Cleveland and Tampa Bay remain interested, Heyman adds on Twitter.
YESTERDAY, 6:45pm: Bautista is expected to take home more than the qualifying offer value ($17.2MM) if the one-year-plus-option scenario is indeed adopted in a finalized deal, Heyman tweets. Indications still are that the sides are leaning toward that arrangement.
2:07pm: Rosenthal tweets that the deal, if completed, will be a one-year contract with a mutual option.
9:38am: A one-year deal is also still a consideration, as are other scenarios tweets Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. Heyman tweets that the current expectation is that the two sides will agree to a deal worth about $37MM over two years, though there’s nothing final. Both the Indians and Rays have bid on Bautista recently as well.
9:15am: Passan reports that the two sides are in the final stages of working out an agreement that will pay Bautista close to $40MM over a two-year term.
7:50am: Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports hears that the two sides are discussing a two-year contract (Twitter link). FOX’s Ken Rosenthal agrees, tweeting that Bautista and the Jays are discussing a two-year pact in the $35-40MM range. That’s a departure from Passan’s report, though it should be noted that Passan’s tweets were around 2am, so there’s certainly been enough time for talks to have changed course.
JAN. 16, 7:13am: Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports that the two sides have discussed multiple iterations of a deal but are currently focused on a one-year pact (Twitter links). A deal isn’t quite done yet, but each side is optimistic that something will be completed.
JAN. 15: The Blue Jays have emerged as the front-runners for free agent right fielder Jose Bautista’s services and are nearing an agreement with the slugger, reports Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (Twitter link). Details regarding the potential pact aren’t yet known, but Toronto hadn’t been willing to give the Octagon/Jay Alou client a deal worth more than the one-year, $17.2MM qualifying offer as of late December.
Bautista has been on the open market since rejecting a qualifying offer from Toronto in November, though the 36-year-old’s venture into free agency hasn’t gone according to plan. Despite serving as one of the majors’ foremost offensive weapons since an out-of-nowhere breakout in 2010, serious interest in Bautista has been scarce this offseason. Bautista has been willing to consider a one-year deal as a result, but it seems having to surrender a first-round pick to sign him has scared off potential suitors.
It also hasn’t helped Bautista’s cause that he’s coming off a disappointing season, one that featured multiple stints on the disabled list and an offensive decline. While Bautista hit a more-than-respectable .234/.366/.452 with 22 home runs in 517 plate appearances, those numbers represented a stark drop-off from the ones he has typically posted as a Blue Jay. After toiling in anonymity with various teams from 2004-09, Bautista slashed a stellar .268/.390/.555 with 227 homers as a Jay between 2010-15.
Thanks to that otherworldly six-year run, Bautista was reportedly seeking a half-decade-long extension worth $150MM last winter. Toronto unsurprisingly balked at that asking price, and the club’s decision was clearly wise given Bautista’s production in 2016. It’ll look that much better if the team is able to bring back Bautista at what should be a palatable price on a short-term contract.
The Blue Jays have already lost one of the longtime faces of their franchise, first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion, to free agency this offseason. Encarnacion landed in Cleveland, which knocked the Jays out of the playoffs last year and has also shown interest in Bautista. But it doesn’t appear the two will reunite this offseason, which is welcome news to a Jays club that’s in dire need of corner outfield help.
Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource is currently projecting that the light-hitting Ezequiel Carrera will man Bautista’s spot in right, while free agent pickup Steve Pearce is slated to start in left. Pearce is far better suited for first base, though, and the Jays could stand to upgrade over Justin Smoak there. Re-upping Bautista would enable them to shift Pearce and their most significant offseason acquisition to date, Kendrys Morales, between first and designated hitter and perhaps platoon Carrera and Melvin Upton Jr. in left.
While retaining Bautista would be a boon to Toronto’s offense (and likely the morale of its fans), he does come with drawbacks. In addition to his offensive regression last season, Bautista continued to fall off in the field, as he finished with negative grades in Defensive Runs Saved (minus-6) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-5.6) for the second year in a row. He also failed to provide value on the base paths, making Bautista a one-dimensional player at this stage of his career. That dimension is rather effective, though, and is apparently going to lead him back to Toronto, where he’s an icon. Keeping Bautista will cost the Jays the compensatory first-round pick they’d have netted had he headed elsewhere, but the club seemingly values what he could bring in future years more than that selection.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Nooooooooo
Yesssss…
Poor Blue Jays. Disillusioned by bat flips and cool glasses. If there was any real interest from any contending team, he’s not coming back to Toronto. He can hang out with Drake and cry about Nikki being single now and he’s stuck with JLo.
draft pick comp kills his chances. So glad it’s out of the new CBA, or at least not a first rounder.
wow……….good one.
Yes Jose flipped his bat. He also hit close to 300 HR and 700 RBI in the last 7 seasons. So maybe consider that next time you think to ask why anybody would want Jose Bautista.
Who cares about the past 7 seasons … besides the Blue Jays. Go pay him for what he did in the past 7 seasons. Good luck with that. He is on the decline. Open your eyes
FINALLY. I’m so glad he’ll be back, and hopefully lower than that $17mil he turned down. He put the city and country on the map after years of crappy teams, and love the swagger he brings with Josh Donaldson, bringer of rain.
Hahaha. Ultimate Homer statement
Its higher. Read the article.
Thank god. This is the best possible outcome for the Blue Jays right now for this, however imperfect it might be:
If the Jays are smart they may get away with an incentive laden contract where he could make 18 mil if he is great and 15 mil if not. He might do that given his ego.
Is this a real report or more made up garbage?
Toronto doing charity work this year….they had him over a barrel
Its about time!!!!!
At least Jose is coming back. I actually hate Ross Atkins
Oh God, here we go. Because…?
Oh yeah! I hate how Shapiro and Atkins have signed cost-effective players to keep this team competitive, all the while building a better prospect core to remain competitive in the future.
Just because they didn’t re-sign Edwin doesn’t mean they’re doing a bad job. In fact, we likely dodged a bullet when Cleveland signed him.
Re: ryguytheflyguy
Tell me how we “dodged a bullet” by not resigning one of the greatest offensive players this team has ever had. Please.
Because he’s old (34) and has shown subtle signs of decline (4% increase in strikeout rate and his lowest WRC+ of his last 5 seasons). He’s still a great player don’t get me wrong and am in no way saying he had a bad season last year/wont be good in the coming year but there are signs. If your logic is that we should resign players because they are “one of the greatest offensive players this team has ever had” then you should 1. Want us to sign people like Carlos Delgado, Olerud etc. because they were some “of the greatest offensive players this team has ever had” and 2. You should be ecstatic that we are signing bautista seeing as how he is the best position player in the history of the franchise.
We dodged a bullet for a number of reasons…
1) Offence isn’t everything. Edwin is a passable defensive 1B at best, and will only decline from here on in, further reducing his value.
2) Casual baseball fans might not pay attention to such things, but Edwin struck out a whopping 138 times in 2016, approx. 41% more than 2015, which was his previous high since 2008. That’s a glaring sign of a guy who is clearly cheating on the fastball, and is due for a steep offensive decline.
3) The way to build a contender is to find surplus value in players. Paying Edwin $20MM/yr for 20MM in WAR value does not help this cause. Not to mention that over the course of a 4-5yr contract (we offered him a 4yr contract worth $80MM with a 5th option yr @ $20MM), he’d actually be providing LESS value than what we’d be paying him for.
4) We have enough high-paid stars on this team (Martin, Tulo, Donaldson), that committing another 4yrs to yet another $20MM player would’ve severely handcuffed this team’s ability to make splashier moves for the duration of his contract.
5) We’ve now been handed this serendipitous opportunity to sign Bautista (who is the superior player of the two) to a 1yr contract, which will help us remain competitive in 2017, while also allowing us to bridge the gap to our young, cost-effective prospects (Alford, Pompey, Tellez), and stay financially flexible for the big fee-agent frenzy that will be 2018.
Because this isn’t a video game. Just like every other team in the league the Jays operate under a budget and it’s risky to devote so much money to one player who already has notable health issues with his hands and back, regardless of what they’ve done in the past. “Dodged a bullet” may be a little strong of a comment but I certainly don’t blame Atkins and Shapiro with the way things unfolded.
Thank you! Finally someone else who can look past the sentimentality and focus on the statistics! Jolly good show!
None of this argument bothers me except the Bautista being the superior player than Edwin comment. As the article said, his bat regressed, he was on the dl multiple times, and his defense grades in the negative 2 years in a row
36 bro!!!
Best position player??? I guess you don’t recall Roberto Alomar. Only jumping on the band wagon last couple of years are we??? And in all honesty, josh Donaldson has done more for this team in the last two season then Jose Bautista has done since he got here. But yeah. You love you some Joey bats. I get it. I was pumped when odur punched the arrogant prick in the face earlier this year. Got exactly what he deserved.
ryguytheflyguy,
You have left me feeling like I am in bizarro world here…
Blue Jays are apparently signing Batista to a 2 year @ AAV of 18.5 million contract to a 36 YO who is off a .234/.366/.452 for 117 OPS+ in an injury plagued 116 game season
You think that is dramatically better than signing a 3 year @ AAV 20 million contract with a 34 YO guy who is off a .263/.357/.529 for 133 OPS+ in a healthy 160 game season
…seriously?
If you really think Bautista is better and or more superior then Encarnacion all I can say is god you are lost and dilusuional!
Lol. Bautista IS a better player than Edwin. His bat regressed BECAUSE of the injuries ( one-off fluke injuries, might I add, unlike the chronic hand and back injuries Edwin suffers from). Expect Bautista to round back into form and outperform Edwin this year.
@ darkstar61
Sounds like you ARE in fact, in bizarro world… A place where one injury-plagued down year erases all previous historical data.
If you truly think Bautista is a .234 hitter because he was dealing with a flukey injury last year, then you are a fool..
Hes 35, while the Jays will be paying him for his age 36 and 37 seasons…
You somehow expecting him to still hit like he did when he was 30-34 is the only thing foolish around here
To your post at Crown:
His bat regressed because he is post prime age and injury prone
I mean, arnt you the guy who is all worried about Edwin because he saw a K spike in his contract year? Well…
2016 – 1 K per 5.02 PA
2015 – 1 K per 6.28 PA
With Edwin you claim his K spike (in his Contract Season, btw) is an indication of a decline in skill, but with 35+ YO Jose it is meaningless?
And at least with Edwin there are signs there was no real decline in his production: (numbers at Rogers Center where majority of PA come)
2016 – 338 PA, .282/.373/.570/.943, 148 OPS+
2015 – 309 PA, .273/.369/.562/.930, 147 OPS+
which indicates the K increase to Edwin did not affect his base performance level and was most likely his trying to do too much for his contact season
With Jose though? Well his massive K spike and dramatic decline in production came with multiple injuries and a near retirement age – oh, and the Jays are paying him nearly as much money over nearly as many years as Edwin got
@ darkstar61… You’re quite adept at putting words into people’s mouths. Nowhere did I ever say that he’ll hit like his 30-34 year old self.. However, I also don’t believe he’s going to hit like he did last year while he was hampered by injuries, either. He’ll probably wind up somewhere in between, which will make him an insanely valuable piece to this, or any other team..
Give your head a shake, mate. Don’t go picking fights if you don’t actually read what anyone is saying and seemingly know nothing about the sport
A fluke injury that hampered Bautista’s performance for one season isn’t the same as chronic, debilitating injuries to the back and hands that Edwin has been dealing with for years…
Yes, they’re both on the decline as hitters. To suggest that they’re going to post career-high numbers at ages 34 and 36 respectively would be folly. However, One hitter (Bautista) is poised to put up superior numbers to his 2016 campaign, while the other (Edwin) is sure to regress with that 40%+ uptick in strikeouts seemingly foreshadowing an impending steep decline.
@ darkstar61
In regards to my comment to thecrown24, once again, like you are so great at doing, you have put more words into my mouth. I have never said Bautista wasn’t declining as well. However, as per usual, if you paid any attention to the facts, you’d realize that a HEALTHY Encarnacion posted that massive spike in SO numbers, whereas Bautista was hampered by injury most of the season, which makes his decrease in production somewhat more excusable.
I also love the fact that you cherry-pick only the numbers at the Rogers Centre to try and prove your point that Edwin isn’t declining (even though he IS, at quite a drastic pace). Also, you’re horribly wrong about the fact that the majority of Edwin’s PAs came at the Rogers Centre last year (364 Away vs 338 at home). If you’re going to try and fudge the numbers to try and defend your pointless argument, at least try and get them right.
No one is putting words in your mouth, I am replying to what you actually said (and what you say is usually a portion the facts slanted heavily to fit your desires over actual reality)
Like you keep claiming Edwin saw a “massive spike in SO” – which is kind of true, but not in the way you keep implying it. What you dont point out is that he also saw a career high in PA (where a lot of the “40%” number you keep repeating comes from; it was actually lower % than that in reality), it was a Contract Year (where players often try to over do things and often have K-spike tendencies) and that his hitting production in the location where he played most of his games was identical to what it was the prior season (indicating there was no decline in actual raw skills despite the K increase)
And yes, when you have 339 PA in Toronto and the next highest is 43 in Tampa then the majority of your plate appearances are coming at that Stadium. I used it because that is a controlled environment where he spends most of his playing time. The fact that his production didnt change AT ALL over the two year period in that controlled bubble location indicates there is not a decline in base ability, despite you insisting there is a “massive decline” somehow (to fit your wishes)
Then, Jose wasnt hampered most of the season – he got injured in June. Reality shows he only missed 1 game total (a suspension game) over the first two+ months/62 games and then developed tightness in his thigh around June 8th …chalk that up to another of your not-really-reality statements in your desperate attempt to defend an idiotic opening stance
Oh, and this is what was said about Jose on June 9th:
“it’s hardly been a banner year for the six-time All-Star. Bautista entered Thursday batting just .227 and has recorded a .360 on-base percentage while tallying 12 home runs and 39 RBI.”
…that is what the HEALTHY 35 YO was producing PRIOR to the injury (and they didnt even point out the pitiful, for him, .465 SLG at the time)
Lastly, lets just look at the B-R comparables for Jose really fast:
1 Jay Buhner – retired at 36
2. Troy Glaus – retired at 33
3. Edwin Encarnacion (ironic)
4. Jeromy Burnitz – retired 37
5. Roger Maris – retired 33
6. Darryl Strawberry – retired 37
7. Pat Burrell – retired 34
8. Bob Allison – retired 35
9. Eric Davis – retired 39
10. Danny Tartabull – retired 34
Now on that list the only one who played much past the age of 35/36 is Eric Davis, who averaged only 74 games (with a high of 92) post-35. Despite those comparables though, you “expect Bautista to round back into form” at the age of 36 because …well, because its what you hope and you decided to argue for some odd reason
Those similarity scores only use raw data taken well out of context of era and ballpark, of course, which is why guys like Roger Naris and Bob Allison are on it. Bautista and Maris are about as unlikely a player profile as possible.
Every study on “contract year” stats has shown little effect on production. Encarnacion struck out more last season by quite a bit, which may be a function of reduced bat speed.
And obviously the notion that Bautista was healthy before going on the DL is absurd. These are professional athletes. They try to play through injuries, usually to the detriment of their stats. Look at Bryce Harper last season. I would guess Bautista was playing hurt for months before he went in the DL. When he came off the DL he was his usual devastating self.
@davidcoonce74
The things you just said are comically homerific and have really no relation to reality
Yes, he was “hurt for months” prior to going on the DL… you know, while playing every inning every single day for the first time in his entire career and giving no person any indication he had a bad hamstring before randomly telling the team in the 6th inning on June 9th and going on the DL a week later. Brilliant deduction!
(btw, we know the actual exact moment he pulled it – happened while running to first in the 6th inning of that game on the 9th, which is why he left the game at that time. No playing thru it prior like you want to fantasize about… nope, he felt it and instantly said he wanted to come out of the game)
Then, Jose posted a pitiful (for him) 469 Slugging after coming off the DL – so much for that “usual devastating self” gibberish you spouted…
So you cite “every study”… lol, now thats comical hyperboil that is actually out of line with reality, but whatever it doesnt even matter anyway. See, the thing is, EE showed NO CHANGE IN PRODUCTION what so ever in the 50% of his season played in the only controlled environment largely free from outside variables (his home stats). The only difference was a higher K rate, otherwise he was identical with the bat… so I guess he just has a dramatic loss of bat speed which spiked his Ks and produced a near perfectly matching bat production rate otherwise. Again, brilliant deduction!
Oh, and FYI – what EE saw was actually a 25% spike in his K rate (ignore the 40% nonsense the other guy spews). Similarly, Jose saw a 25% spike in his K rate …but we know, we know, the other guy already told us that is only a glaring sign for EE and not for 35+ yo guys who are still actually on the Jays
And lastly to the odd attempted dismissal of the similarity scores… okay? So you question the inclusion of 2 of those 10 players on it, and yet the fact that none of the other 8 really played past 34-36 either is still unaffected. The point was players with his career arch and similar abilities, regardless or era, generally fall off a cliff around the age of 34-36… just like Jose did last season. They also get injury prone, especially in the leg department… again, just like Jose has been for a while, and specifically suffered from the hammy strain last season (or as the other guy pitifully tried to dismiss it as, “the fluke injury” lol)
(oh so now the old post is back… haha)
Sorry, but your post has almost no grounds in reality
First and foremost, to this blatantly incorrect statement:
“When he (Bautista) came off the DL he was his usual devastating self. ”
…after coming off the DL, Jose batted for a pitiful (for him) .469 SLG – a number which happens to match the pitiful (for him) .468 SLG he posted prior to going on the DL
In fact, we can take it a step further even:
.230/.360/.455/.815 – Jose 1st half 2016
.239/.372/.447/.819 – Jose 2nd half 2016
…sure looks like actual current ability level to me, and not just a down year because of the injury.
Then, Jose hurt himself in the 6th inning of the June 9th game running to 1B. No playing hurt prior – in fact, last season was the only time in his entire career he was playing every inning of every game prior to pulling up lame in that 6th inning. He was 100% healthy until stressing his hammy (a pretty common injury for old players at the end of their careers)
Second, you clearly havent read any studies on Contract Years… but regardless, Edwin saw NO PRODUCTION CHANGE what so ever from 2015 to 2016 in the 50% of his playing time spent at the only controlled, largely free from outside variables, location (home park) …so your theory is he saw a dramatic decline in Bat Speed which led to a 25% rise in K rates that didn’t affect his actual bat production 1 single bit in the only controlled environment we have?
Side note – Jose also saw a 25% spike in K rate last season. (but since the 36 YO Jose is still a Jay now, thats meaningless and couldnt be the reason for the dramatic decline in bat production, I’m sure)
Third …okay, so you feel two of the 10 guys with similar career arcs that were finished between the ages of 34-36 should not be on the list? And? Still doesnt change a single thing – players with Joses paths and skills, regardless of era played, are more likely to be out of the game by the age of 36/37.
Osonvs and Ryguy I understand what you two are saying but I just don’t like him because he can’t make up his mind in my eyes on if he wants to be competitive or rebuilding. I just don’t like some of his trades like the Melvin Upton one or the Kendrys morales signing
He’s doing both. He’s building towards the future, while ALSO remaining competitive during this window we have with all the talent on this team.
I’d also argue that the Melvin Upton trade was fantastic, since we now have a utility-knife guy with great speed and solid defense who we are paying just a bit north of $5MM to this year (the Padres are covering the rest).
Melvin upton, regardless of how he does in a Jays uniform, was a good trade because it gives the Jays depth in the outfield without giving up anything of value. Not to mention the bulk of his salary is paid by his former team, not the Jays. Has speed and hits for power and is passable on defense. Morales signing is at good value as it’s at a fraction of the cost of what EE signed for. He’ll also help stabilize the lineup as last year’s lineup was right handed heavy and morales is a switch hitter. There’s no doubt what Atkins is doing. He’s trying to remain competitive while restocking the farm with talent. That should’ve been evident with the Liriano trade when all he gave up was Hutch and he still got prospects in that trade. Atkins may not make splashy deals or signings but you can’t take away the fact that he’s been able to find very good value by spending very little (Other examples include Grilli and Benoit trades)
This is the comment I agree with the most. Atkins doesn’t make huge splashes. His job isn’t to make people love 1 move. His job is to make people eventually love all his moves. He added Benoit by dumping Storen who was a joke in a Jays uniform and needed a change of scenery. He added Grilli for almost nothing. He added Upton for almost nothing. He’s now properly waited out Bautista and is (likely) going to get a bargain compared to his QO in October. He added Morales for half the cost of Edwin and he’s going to come close enough to producing as well as Edwin that everyone will love that move by June. He added Liriano in July to give the Jays a very good 5 man rotation for not only the remainder of last season but also the 2017 season. He had this years rotation locked up in July last year. That’s incredibly rare in today’s game.
I feel like we are still a trade away from finishing our tinkering.
The bullpen help available isn’t worth the contracts they want.
I hope pompey gets a look in left during ST. Platoon him with Upton.
Melvin Upton was not a good trade. The man has no focus and made so many mental miscues defensively. Gibbons lost confidence in him, Carrera grabbed the 4th OF spot and moved Upton to our 5th. Your 5th best guy should not earn $5M, just like Smoke shouldn’t earn $4.25M.
The other point I don’t get is restocking the system. So is every other team in MLB, you can’t rebuild and compete at the same time. Your either trading your MLB assets for some kids and tanking for a better draft position or your trying to win, competing and restocking at the same time is called being sub 500 (what this teams has been since after 93 minus past two years) and setting yourself up for years of sub 500 ball
Have to say I disagree. Great franchises that have ample market & financial resources are able to continually grow talent on the farm while competing at the major league level. Look at what St. Louis and San Francisco have been able to do. They are consistently turning out home-grown talent, and making the necessary moves to continue the simultaneous building/competing. No reason why Toronto shouldn’t be aiming for this as well. The clubs that build for a 3-4 year window only to knock it all down and try again? They do this because they don’t have the resources to sustain their success. Ideally they’d like to build a sustainable machine, but their margin for error is razor thin. Toronto has seemingly endless resources, so of course they should be aiming to build a sustainable system, not going for broke and then building from the bottom if all else fails.
Rogers should act like a real owner. It is very frustrating as a fan knowing we have unlimited resources but they use “just enough” of the resources to field a competitive team instead of going over the top like the Yankees of old or the current Redsox teams and Even the Dodgers.
We could have outbid for Price last year had Rogers opened the purse strings. And even if it turns into a bad contract, we have the resources to eat it and not let it handcuff other moves contracts etc.
For them to always act as if they are the Marlins or the Rays or Brewers and can’t afford 1 bad contract is Ludacris.
And that’s what we as fans should be frustrated about. Not Shapiro and Atkins following the guidelines they’ve been given
Very well stated. They have an entire country for a market and an insane tv deal as far as I’ve heard. That must be insanely frustrating as a fan. I’m not always a fan of the Red Sox’ approach or execution, but I can appreciate that they will spare no expense to field a competitive team every season.
Well said
Not a huge surprise
So, 5/150? Lol
I’m guessing 1/18 if he’s Lucky……..although the Jays will have to hope Jose signs a contract over $50 million when he’s a FA next winter, or they won’t get a draft pick for him (New CBA Rules)
They won’t get a draft pick for him anyway because players can only be offered a QO once, and that was this year. Bautista can’t be offered a QO next offseason.
Is that part of the new CBA?
Yes. Players that have been offered a QO before cannot be offered another starting in the 2017 offseason.
Rumour has it that he’s been offered $75,000 Cdn plus a ’76 Pinto with 10 cents per km allowance and a $100 Tim Hortons gift card..
Haha…worst joke ever
I was only saying 5/150 if they gave him an opt out during the 4th year and that was way before when his market was still developing
Yep classic market Mis-read.
He got 1 yr. In MLB, mutual options never vest. They are allowing him to save a little face. Might as well make mutual option $ 30 mil because he’s never getting it.
Don’t understand why people try to bring up 5/150 when both Bautista and Blue Jays FO said he never asked for that amount or anywhere near that amount. Are people just so hypnotized that they don’t believe the people involved but do believe ONE guy in the press who floated that bogus number?
Fake news…
Hehehe
Bizarre. EE would have been more useful
Then it’s too bad EE didn’t accept the highest offer…
Hope its a huge overpay just for the laughs.
Hopefully his market has dropped to the point there can be some team friendly option year(s)
If it’s 3 years or shorter, it’s fine. Anyone who doesn’t want the guy back in some capacity can suck a lemon. He’s a top 3 Blue Jay ever. I’m not one to pay for past performance, but keep the guy around for the last shot or two that the current offensive core has. By far the best player still available.
Totally agree with you.
Definitely the best option still on the FA market. Would’ve preferred Fowler, but José on a 1yr deal is a fine consolation prize. If it’s anything more than 1yr, though, then some serious reshuffling will be in order, since José is ALREADY a detriment in the outfield. He’ll definitely be a 1B/DH type by 2018.
I’m saying 1 year, $10 million
Good luck with that…
not a chance
I am saying you have no clue
One year with a team option for second year?
1 year for 17.2 million, team option for second year at 12.8 million with 2 million buyout.
That seems fair
I hate the Jays, wish he left too
Hehehe.
maybe 2 years for like 25 million, atleast they brought back bautista after losing EE,
tulo , donaldson , bautista , martian , morales, Thats a decent line up but not as dangerous without EE there.
the Martian makes all the difference, IMO
I don’t think you had it in order, but I see Morales hitting cleanup.
I’m thinking Donaldson, Bautista, Morales, Tulo, Martin 2-6. Stick Travis up top, Smoak/Pearce at 7, Pillar 8 and Upton/Carrera 9 or something like that. Some mix of the rest of them while that 2-6 stays pretty much the same most of the year barring injuries.
About freakin’ time!!
K my guess is 3/42 with a second year opt out and a team option on the third year.
1 year 15 million team option for the same 15 million with a 3 million buyout
This is what I had him pegged for. I didn’t have the buyout as high, but you’re probably closer than I am.
Didn’t know how I’d feel about this prior to now. Could not be happier welcome back Joey bats ❤❤❤
Realistically if you rewind a year, Bautista was the more important and expensive signing for the jays.
Last year he had a couple of fluke injuries that slowed him down. On a short term deal he could end up the best bargain of free agency.
2 and 33.5
Why? He has a lousy attitude, a right arm that is only good if he were playing softball, declining batting stats, strikes out way to much, getting old and slow, thinks his you know what don’t stink, way past his prime, probably a headcase in the locker room, injury prone and just plain not good anymore. The only thing he is good at is taking one on the chin and not falling down. Get Trumbo and put Carrera in right.
I couldn’t disagree with you more, mate! Not necessarily about the lousy attitude part (I’ve never personally been a fan of him off the field), but definitely about this signing Trumbo part, and especially about giving Carrera a full-time job.
However, I’ll entertain you…If you think José strikes out too much (which by the way, he doesn’t), then why the heck do you tout Trumbo as an superior option? José struck out 87 times in 517 plate appearances last year (approx 1 SO every 5.94 PAs). Trumbo struck out 170 times in 667 plate appearances last year (approx 1 SO every 3.92 PAs).
I’m not a huge fan of José’s attitude or antics, either. But the dude can hit (and more importantly, get on base)
Joey Bats struck out 103 times last year actually and the big issue is actually that his power is falling behind quickly and in a hitters’ park no less.. Bautista is probably going to be the DH for Blue Jays (he is a terrible defender), one would want someone who has some power or something to offer other than a decent walk rate (decent, not wonderful).
Considering he played through 2 injuries this season and missed time, pacing for 30 Home Runs over a full season isn’t exactly a bad thing. Yes it’s a drop off from 40. But if he comes out this season and nails 30/100 with his usual 100+ walks are you really going to come back here and complain?
Also, “Decent, not wonderful” walk rate? He finished 12th in the MLB in walks and missed 46 games. If he played his normal 155ish games he would have had about 116 which Trout had to lead all of baseball. How’s that “Decent”? Does he need to walk 180 times for you to be impressed with his patience and eye at the plate?
Many apologies, Charlie Burns. It seems that I was hasty in my tiredness when I posted that last night. Bautista did indeed strike out 103 times last year.. He walked 87 times. My bad.
Either way, the point is still valid that Trumbo not only strikes out more than Bautista, but also doesn’t draw nearly as many walks, and is equally (if not more) useless in the field. Why anyone would think of his as a superior option to Bautista is beyond me.
Don’t forget, Trumbo is even worse of a defender in RF too! Sub .300 obp, so he’s not the superior player over Bautista.
Morales will dh with Bautista spending some time there occasionally.
As far as the prospect of ever trotting Carrera out every day as a starting outfielder, I’d sooner hand the keys to Dalton Pompey and see what we’ve really got in the kid. At the very least, Pompey would be worth more than Carrera with his glovework, alone, regardless of whether he can finally figure it all out at the plate.
Carrera is a fourth outfielder at best, if not even deeper bench depth. He may have had a little hot streak last year, but almost everyone does, and they all come back down to Earth, much like Carrera did. He finished the year with a .679 OPS, exactly the same as one Kevin Pillar, who people constantly complain about offensively. The difference is Pillar more than makes up for it with his Gold Glove defence (screw you, Kevin Kiermaier!), while Carrera simply does not, as is at his very core, replacement-level.
Kiermaier is better than Pillar on D.
Yup, and so is Jackie Bradley Jr.
Kiermaier and Pillar are both stellar defensively, though Kiemaier has the better throwing arm. Bradley is solid, but like most Boston players, is overrated by their fans. I’d be happy with any of them in Detroit.
I never said Kiermaier wasn’t better than Pillar on D. I was just cursing his name because had his parents not birthed him, Pillar would handily have two GGs in his cabinet haha.
I’d be willing to bet Pillar finally turns a corner and hits a steady 275
He’s always hit for high average at every level until the majors.
His man strength is rounding into form. He’s got to be comfortable now after a few full time campaigns.
Watch.
Jose Bautista actually doesn’t strike out that much at all for a power hitter.
As a Jays fan, I’m fine with this. Bautista will be back on a short-term deal. He will be motivated to have a good season because he’ll be mad that there wasn’t a bigger market for his services. He still has power & he still walks a lot. The Jays desperately need a corner outfielder & he is better than the alternatives on the open market & that includes Trumbo, who makes Bautista look like a gold glover in the outfield & despite his season last year, doesn’t have the track record of Bautista. As for Bautista’s attitude issues, he’s never been a problem in Toronto. He’s never had any issues with his teammates. He hasn’t been a malcontent. There will be no issues at all in the Blue Jays clubhouse with Bautista returning.
The ‘Front-Runners?’ Is Jose Bautista’s agent typing up these articles? They’re more like the ‘only-runners’ because no one wants this old, ped-tainted, has-been cancer of a player.
When was Bautista ever tied to PEDs other than by no nothing fans?
when he passed something like 16 tests in the first few months or so following his 54 dinger season… that is the only time i can think of that his name was associated with steroids.
When has he ever been connected to peds or being a cancer? The salt must be real in bmore
There’s a weird narrative that only exists in baseball that if a player is good it must be because of PEDs, although baseball has the most rigorous drug testing of the four major sports. As far as the cancer stuff, people are somehow equating a bat flip from two years ago into all kinds of nonsense.
he has one off year due to injury and all of a sudden he’s a has been? he’s been tested for peds excessively every year since his breakout year and never failed a single test.
Honestly, losing encarnacion is pretty bad but if this dude isn’t in their lineup next season it’s goin to be a long year. I don’t see Morales putting up another big season like last year and I’m sure Donaldson is going to see a lot of different pitches this season. They’re young in the rotation but their ‘pen is weak and now their lineup is starting to thin out.
If I were the GM up there- day 1 of spring training until the all-star break would be my sample-size in decided wether to go into a partial rebuild mode
I like this move by the Jays front office. If Bautista has a good year statistically and stays healthy, he cam bring in a great return at the trade deadline, if in fact the Jays are out of the playoff race, which I hope they are not.
Nobody shaking in their boots over this signing!
just o’day
I think Bautista is good for 2 more years with the bat. As A slugger, I’d pay him 2 yrs 36 mill. It would be a great signing. Anything more than that and it is a waste of money. Defensively he is barely holding it together right now. but hey, it’s Jose. Sign him if we can.
I’m just glad the Dodgers rumors were fake. Woulda hated seeing him play OF in Dodger stadium
The turf does a job on your joints, Bautista will miss more time.
Overpriced best years behind him. One year deal maybe…two years will regret but on bright side not long term. After losing EE they had to do something.
The way this offseason was going this was the best possible outcome. Now add another lefty bat and eat whatever salary you have to, to get rid of Smoke and Upton.
Not if it’s 2 years 40 million range. That be a complete overpay in this market.
Not really? Beltran got 1/16M and Bautista is the superior player
I’d much rather have Beltran at 1 yr for 16 million. Than Bautista for 2
That’s fine, I just want what will give us the best chance to compete next year and that’s Jose. He still gets in base and you have to put some protection behind JD.
Upton is fine and smoak is ok on the bench
smoak can at least play solid D in comparison to other BJ options
If this deal becomes a reality it only strengthens my belief that GM’s and FO people are no smarter than your average fan on MLBTrade rumors. There is very little interest in Bautista from the rest of the market, so why would anyone offer him anything close to a qualifying offer. He’s only worth an AAV of $12M/yr, if even that. Plus by signing him, you’re taking up a roster spot for the next diamond in the rough. I say let him go play in Japan for a year or two and then call it quits…..and start looking at to your farm system.
No kidding. This Bautista deal makes the Rox signing Desmond to play 1st, and giving up the 11th pick look smart.
Sarcasm.. Thr Desmond deal is idiotic too.
I don’t think we know there’s no interest. Some teams probably play their cards pretty close to the vest. It only takes one other team to drive up the price. And after returning from injury last season, Bautista was as good as he’d ever been.
i agree – and sometimes it doesn’t even take a second team to drive up the price if the first team THINKS there is a second team involved. if this were the 80’s his agent would be crying collustion. what’s hurting Bautista this offseason are his negative defensive WAR, the plethora of other, cheaper DH types on the market (Napoli, Trumbo) and a couple of bridges he has burned with other players and fans of other teams (rangers and orioles especially) who have taken themselves out of the bidding for him based on his past transgressions. it also hurts him that the Red Sox and Yankees both already replaced their outgoing DH’s (Ortiz and Arod/Teixeira) and want / need to keep their overall team salaries down and aren’t in a bidding war. Bautista’s best option at this point may be to take a one or two year deal with an opt out clause and hope he has a rebound year this year so he can hit free agency again next year without the draft pick compensation.
In the ’80s there actually was collusion, of course, and ML owners paid hundreds of millions in penalties. But I don’t think that’s happening now.
Barry Bonds begs to differ…
Yeah, Bonds was a clear case of collusion and I don’t understand why he didn’t pursue it, but I don’t think the diminished market for Moss, Carter, Bautista et. al. is close to that.
The thing is Jose is still a very good hitter
We don’t know if there is a team or two in the grass offering 1/$16-$18m. TOR has made the most sense from the beginning. Two yrs is the max any team should go (not only bc of the market, but his risk of decline/injury).
If those other teams sign him, TOR gets a pick. Factor not getting that pick into what they are paying him as well.
Question? If he signs with the Jays, can they trade him anytime this year?
They can’t trade him until midseason without his permission.
they cant trade him without his permission period. 10 and 5 rights….
dont fret maybe cubs will figure a way out of the heyward contract lol
I can’t believe he’s getting 2 years and close to $40 million! I thought there was like zero market for him.
If Toronto wasn’t interested, it probably would only be 1 year. I guess they can give him 2 since he’s been a face of the franchise for so long.
Overpay
I’ve long assumed he would be returning to Toronto, but if this reported deal is accurate consider me very surprised. I’m trying to figure out if Toronto truly values him at 2/~$40m, if they are just bidding against themselves, or if they are just feeling the pressure from the fan base to do something “big.” I’m in the minority of non-Blue Jays fans that don’t hate the guy. He’s not my favorite, but I do appreciate the flare he brings to a game that for years was starving for characters, heroes and villains. All stats and sabermetrics aside, that is what makes the game exciting to watch. Still think he brings plenty positive value, and should make the AL East race that much more exciting having him back in the fold.
I’m in the minority of non-Blue Jays fans that don’t hate the guy.
I don’t mind him either.
Although, I am surprised that he is getting 2 years and 40 million or whatever it comes to
Does he still have 10 and 5 rights?
IF he signs with Toronto he will. if he signs with someone else he won’t. it’s based on 10 years MLB service time (which he has) and 5 years or more with the same team (which he will have it he stays in Toronto).
That’s about what he is worth in my opinion (2/35-40M). I think that people are kidding themselves when they think that the QO offer was the ceiling for him. The Jays simply offered it not as an evaluation of his worth, but because they knew he’d reject it and expected him to be out of their budget.
The guy is getting old but lets not let recent memory fog our mind. Even on a down year last year, the guy put up an OPS+ of 117.. 145 and 161 before that when fully healthy. Those are elite numbers, even as a strict DH-Type.
You seem to be glossing over the fact that the “down year” came as a 35 YO, while the Jays will be paying for his age 36 and 37 seasons
Thats not “getting old” – that is already old, and honestly its the “retirement” stage of a career
I still can’t believe that this stuck-up old guy is gonna get like 15-20 million dollars a year. The Blue Jays shouldn’t even try with him. He’s not even going to be good anymore and they’re just wasting their money. 2 years 16 million dollars is what he deserves.
He was good last year…
Speaking of wasted dollars, I can’t believe the Halos are still paying for Josh Hamilton!
If he ends up receiving a 1-year offer from the Blue Jays, if I’m the Indians, I offer slightly more and sell him that they were just in the World Series and he can join Encarnacion in Cleveland. If it’s 2 years, I can see why the Indians wouldn’t sign him for that.
Is this serious, that he’s getting a 18.5 to 20 /year. Yes, I would like to see him back but at that price is to much. Plus he will get the 10 and 5 rights.
This is looking as totally bad offseason for the jays. At 20m why, and tell me why you let Edwin go!! lol.
Nice pressure by the Indians. they are jays front office nightmare.
I Was on the jays front office side, but if this happens, yes they are going to be very criticized.
Why do the 10/5 rights matter? It won’t be a mega contract, so no long-term damage to the team there. If he plays well next season the Jays will be happy to keep him, and if not, nobody would take him anyway.
I can see 2/36 with a club option for the second year. Although, he is declining, he’s still a pretty good hitter.. Toronto doesn’t lose a pick. They just won’t gain one but they already have gained one from EE..
I agree that 2/36 with a club option for the second year is fair or maybe a joint option.. This is a bit high but you do not want to embarrass the guy in his home town. 20 million per year and I have lost confidence in Atkins.
with the BJ bullpen as is, a WC is a long shot at best regardless if this happens or not.
There’s still 2.5 months left in the offseason. Don’t get your panties in a knot!
Does anyone get the feeling that Toronto and Cleveland front offices are talking a lot and actually setting the market for players together?
no
Somebody out there want to give Dan Duquette a wake up call? Players are slowly being signed and the O’s haven’t landed a single one they supposedly had their sights on. Methinks Mr. Trumbo may be coming back.
They shouldn’t touch this
The Athletics should come knocking, asking about Justin Smoak..
1. Travis
2. Bautista
3. Donaldson
4. Morales
5. Tulo
6. Martin
7. Pearce/Carrera
8. Pompey/ Upton
9. Pillar
Barney on the beach
I’ll take that lineup.
Trade smoak to whoever will give u any LHP or a bag of balls to free up his 5 million and get delarosa or wood and bring back Navarro to back up Martin
Let Bautista play mostly at 1st and throw him back in RF vs a LHP
I agree with almost everything. My only modification would be to throw Upton on the same bus as Smoke. Even if we can save the MLB minimum on these two guys you gotta take it.
Joey Batflip back to TO? Ben I knew your heart was still in Boston! Thanks pal.
Twas hoping he was smart and left Toronto. Clearly he’s not. They won’t be as good without EE. I feel bad for Tulo he’s stuck there 3 or 4 more years.
It’s not basketball. 1 guy can’t make or break a team
Assume he hits 70 HR in 162 games.
That still leaves 92 games where he doesn’t jack one out. 8 other guys need to collect some RBIs
Let’s not forget you can also score 6 runs a game. But if u give up 7 you still lose
Also you can be up 3 runs in the 9th and blow a save
There is SO MUCH MORE to a baseball team then the cleanup hitter
Would I take EE right now. Damn right.
But will the jays go 81-81 without him? I’m willing to bet not. I’m willing to put 100 on them getting back to the playoffs.
Red Sox won the Winter meetings trophy. Doesn’t garuntee them winning the division.
See the splash the jays made with BJ Ryan AJ Burnett and Troy Glaus. We won the winter that year too. Finished 3rd
We made the biggest splash 3 years ago with the Marlins trade. Picking up Dickey etc
We tanked that year too.
If by “not as good” you mean they don’t make the playoffs I would expect a considerable shake up next offseason. Not that Tulos contract would be the easiest to trade, but I don’t think it’s impossible.
Yeah Tulo has had it rough. His team has made the playoffs twice in the last 2 years., in 500 AB’s he has hit 24 hr and 70 Rbis; he chums and plays the left side with his new best friend bringer of rain; gotten paid approx 25 M USD; and listens to his name chanted to a 40k+ full stadium every home game, Yeah real rough. Perspective.
Should have accepted the qualifying offer. Wonder if this will humble him a bit moving forward.
According to the Toronto Star 4 hours ago it’s a 1 year $20 million deal with a mutual option for 2018 for $20 million with a $4 million buyout. If that turns out to be the actual deal, Bautista can still walk away after 1 year with more than the QO whether he declines the option or the team decides on the buyout. If getting more money is humbling then I guess he is sufficiently humbled.
I just wanted to do this for fun… Like this comment if you like trout or dislike for harper.
I personally hate Jose Bautista and think he deserves 500K for 2 years on behalf of his attitude and his ego. Why get him for 15-20 million when you coulda let edwin (a MUCH better player) stay for the same price? He’s old and he is going to disappoint the Blue Jays organization and their fans because he is gonna SUCK.
I guess it depends on what you mean by suck. Jose will likely hit 25-30 bombs each year for the next 2 years, bat .250, have a huge OBP, one of the highest in the game, usually good for 3-4 outfield assists per year from the arm, makes each person in the batting order around him better, and is a great guy to have if he is your teammate. I’ll take that.
I love trout and hate harpers attitude. GO HALOS!!!
At 37 years old??? No. What I mean by suck is by the skill level suck. He will bat .240, hit 20 homers or less, have 150-something Ks with an OBP of .330 because nobody really fears him anymore (besides maybe the Rangers) and his ego is getting the best of him. HATE is the right word nowadays. You will hear the boos in a lot of MLB parks when he steps up at the plate. He’s a punk, not a teddy bear that everyone wants in their dugout. That is what I mean by suck.
Dude…spoiler alert
Except nothing of what you wrote here is going to happen.
You do realize it’s not 2020 right?
Big Papi hit 38 home runs at 40 years old. Never say never. If he gets 500 AB, 30 HR is certainly reachable by Bautista and a .350 plus OBP is a given.
Just when I thought this offseason couldn’t get any worse.
Mispend on Morales and now punt the draft pick on an aging, rapidly declining, injured OF who can’t play an acceptable OF anymore AND who has a bad attitude.
These Cleveland clowns are destroying the Blue Jays.
Unbelievable. Just unbelievable.
My only hope is that this falls through somehow.
You do not understand what you’re talking about
Me? Or Him?
Who, Shane? Me?
You’ll find out eventually.
This is all just Shapiro leaking to say to the fans we tried to put a competitive product on the field but we could sign anybody that was in our budget….so we will play it out and if we are out of contention we will start a rebuild. When that rebuild is done we will sell a few assets and rebuild again. This is our 5 year plan and then we will restart again.
So many ill informed opinions
This isn’t MLB 17 on ps4.
Who cares what Uptons yearly salary is worth. Who cares how much SD payed. All that matters is he plays D and hits LHP
Who cares what Jose is paid. Who cares if it’s 17.2 or 27.2
All fans should care about is the production. We don’t have to worry about luxury tax etc.
Buy your tickets and shut up while we keep our window open
OR DON’T BUY TICKETS and show your displeasure that way
Just don’t come back in September for the meaningful games. Half of you nitwits don’t deserve a team this good while all the whining
Sorry to knit pick, but Upton can’t play D. It’s almost like he’s day dreaming out there, so many mental miscues and a ton of strikeouts.
He “can” play great defense. He’s not limited by skill set.
I agree mentally he made a bunch of horrible plays. Including dropping 2 sacrifice flies.
I like to believe those are not the norm. And as long as he makes the routine plays. Pillar can do all the flashy plays
“So many ill informed opinions” – spouts an ill informed opinion.
Which is???
We’re all ears
Fans care about how much a player is paid because over spending on one player limits their team from spending money to address additional areas.
IF you’re a fan of a small market team
Arguably we have the largest market of any MLB team
Roger’s shouldn’t be handcuffed by an overpay
We have an entire country giving their money to support the franchise. Roger’s owns the cable company and sports channels the Jays games are broadcast on. We own the bloody stadium outright. Only paid pennies on the dollar for it.
A beer in there is almost 15$
They are making money hand over fist even when the dome is half full
In the last 2 years we averaged over 3 million in attendance
You do the math. This isn’t Tampa Bay
It also ends up increasing the ticket costs
And when ticket costs are going up because the team overspent on multiple inferior players, then literally the only people getting screwed are the fans
ticket prices are normally set based on what the market will bear and not a team’s payroll
lol You got that right chesteraarthur!
“buy your tickets and shut up while we keep our window open”
“ALL fans should care about is the production”
“Half of you nitwits don’t deserve a team this good”
And what about those statements is Ill informed?
Buy your tickets and shut up?
Well I guess shut up is excessive but “fans” need to buy tickets in order to have ownership spend
Only care about production?
Why do we care what Roger’s spends on player A vs player B? Do we divide wins by the payroll?
Half of the nitwits on here complaining about a team that’s on paper better then a very large percentage of the league?????
That’s self explanatory
And to all the Shapiro / Atkins hate.
The “nitwits” are crying we didn’t do enough.
What was the major move we missed out on?
We gave EE the best offer
We gave Fowler a very good offer and STL trumped it with what’s being called a severe overpay
We kept our competitive window open while keeping the few AAA pieces we had intact
What’s the obvious move they tanked on? Giving Morales a 3rd year so soon?
Is that really such a mistake ? Morales will rake in Roger’s center as a DH
They also built a team who beat us and almost beat the Cubs
Why all the hate.
Please give clear concise examples
Offering 80M to EE before free agency when his market was at 125M and then pulling the offer when his market dropped low enough to where he might accept it looked horrible to the fans. The signing of Morales was too soon. The Outlook of the team changed dramatically when the signed Morales and said they had no room for EE. They should have simply waited out the market like everybody else. Why with a few holes to fill you would start off big with a DH. This is why we will have Smoak at first and god knows who in LF. At this point we don’t even know who will be in RF either.
His Market was never 125.
His wish was 125
He was offered 5 @ 100 with the 5th and option.
He got far less then that. And he could have signed 4 @ 80 before he took the Indians offer
We can’t control what a player does. We can only control what we do and what we offer. When we offer the best and it’s rejected…..I don’t blame them for turning to option B.
I agree with smoak. But that wasn’t this off-season.
It was signed last year in August I believe.
Nor have I said they are perfect. But no GM is.
They can fix the smoak signing easily by flipping him to the NL where he has some usefulness and get hopefully something in return. Even if it’s just salary relief
The problem with the EE/Morales situation is the unbelievably silly, extremely short-sighted reactionary mind-state shown.
Sure, Edwin turned down their initial offer, so what did they do? Rushed out to sign a dramatically inferior player to a (relatively speaking) large, long contract despite a massive glut of similar/better players on the market who would not really begin to get signed for another roughly month (most arent even signed now, even)
Had they shown any patience what so ever they likely would have been able to keep Edwin at best, or at minimum saved themselves from the Morales deal. Right now it is looking like better players than Morales will likely be stuck with 1 year deals, possibly for less money than he will average in Toronto …and the Jays missed out on it all because they they didnt bother to think things thru.
As I point out below, the Jays have now committed 42.5 Million for the 2017 season (and a whopping 70 million overall) by bringing back Jose off a 117 OPS+ year, bringing in Morales off a 108 OPS+ season and signing a career platoon guy with a 110 OPS+
Inferior? No not just Inferior. “Dramatically”
How so? EE only has the edge in HR. And in his new park he likely won’t jack as many out. Plus he has very little protection in that lineup.
Morales will still jack out 30 in the dome. Bat for a decent average which EE never has. Plus he’s a switch hitter
Also this “long” contract is only for 3 years.
That’s in line with our current core of JD Tulo Martin etc
If we didn’t sign Morales and if EE would still go to Cleveland. WHO was this mystery player the jays could have signed who’s better then both EE and Morales?
Is that player still on the market? Trumbo? Carter? Hahaha
I’d rather Morales and Bautista ty.
Why do so many people say so many comically incorrect, easily debunked things?
“(Morales will) Bat for a decent average which EE never has”
First, “batting average”? Seriously? But even by your simple-minded, 1930s value standards, we still see this:
.272 – Edwins BA since 2010
.269 – Kendrys BA since 2010
And over those 6 years, in only 2 of them has Morales had a higher BA than EE
…so, you were saying?
And yes, it is a (as I said) “relatively” long contract at 3 years when other, similar/superior players will likely have to settle for 1 year deals at similar to less money.
Then, to this:
“That’s in line with our current core of JD Tulo Martin etc”
Okay, you seriously cant tell the difference between these two lines?
.279/.373/.524/.897, 143 OPS+ – Donaldson last 3 seasons
.262/.328/.442/.770, 108 OPS+ – Morales last 3 seasons
Otherwise, yes, you are correct – Morales will likely hit in the ballpark range of …the ShortStop and Catcher. Yipee, thats definitely what you want from your big 1B signing!
*sigh*
EE has better ISO, OBP, SLG, wOBA, Wrc+, and baserunning than Morales. It’s not just hrs, not at all.
You deflated your own argument
If you look at career stats not only is Morales a higher average career they are almost identical in OPS plus of 124 vs 115
Morales has played the vast majority of his games in pitcher friendly parks (kc sea LAA)
EE has played in hitter friendly parks for literally all of his decent seasons. He did nothing in Cincinnati and we cut him the year before he exploded
He’s not going to repeat his numbers in Cleveland. Morales can certainly repeat his numbers at the dome surrounded by a still potent lineup
And why would you compare an MVP line to Morales?
Did anyone say Morales will be in MVP talks next year.
Gtfo lol
a 124 and a 115 ops plus is not almost identical, that’s 9% difference compared to league average. OPS plus is park adjusted so I’m not sure why you are bringing up the parks they play in. Cincinnati is a hitters park, so again not sure why you are brining this up. Lineup protection has been shown to have little or no effect on a batter’s production
Maybe you are the one who needs to “Gtfo”.
Shown by who? Your opinion ?
This is fun tho.
EE not doing anything in Cincinnati while being a hitters ballpark.
Morales has been what he is as long as he’s been in the majors
EE was a bum till 4 years ago and has had huge seasons. But there are many factors behind it
Even tho those factors have been proven false apparently
You seriously have like no idea what you are talking about, and instead just like to talk, huh?
So you want to go back nearly a decade+ to try and claim Morales is a better BA guy since… well since your previous argument went up in flames when you were shown Edwin had a higher BA than Kendrys in 4 of the last 6 seasons and higher overall BA average over that period? Pitiful you cant just admit you were wrong
Second, as Chester points out, 124 OPS+ and 115 OPS+ are no where near similar. But yet again you are pitifully trying to act like their production when they were in their early-mid 20s is what is to be expected now in your desperate attempt to try to save face. Here is the last 5 years (you know, the more relevant time period than what they did a decade ago)
.267/.330/.444/.774, 112 OPS+ – Morales
.272/.367/.544/.912, 146 OPS+ – Encarnacion
…yeah, like perfect little twins, arent they?
Or whats next, are you also going to try and claim a 112 OPS+ is just like a 146 OPS+?
“Morales can certainly repeat his numbers at the dome surrounded by a still potent lineup ”
…you do know that Morales repeating his numbers means he would remain about the 21st best hitting 1B in the game, right? Because based off Fangraphs wRC+, that is exactly what Morales would have been last season (had he played 1st instead of DH) – the 21st best hitting 1B. Yipee, the Jays signed the 21st best hitting 1B to a 3 year deal!
Lastly, to this:
“And why would you compare an MVP line to Morales? ”
…uhm, because you literally said Morales was “in line” with “JD”? You were the one comparing them, saying they were in line with each-other – not me…
By people who are paid to research and write about baseball. Maybe you should do some reading and actually inform yourself on topics that you are trying to comment on. You clearly have very little grasp on stats like ops+ and what they really mean.
You brought up that he did nothing in Cinci then hit well when he moved to a hitters park. “EE has played in hitter friendly parks for literally all of his decent seasons. He did nothing in Cincinnati and we cut him the year before he exploded”. He’s played in a hitter friendly park in cinci too, so why did you feel the need to bring this up? And by “we cut him”, who are you referring to?
EE has been a better player than KM since 2012. Is a 4 year sample size of better production not enough for you? You think that looking at career numbers does a better job of summarizing the talent level of these two players? Can’t wait for the explanation of that one, “I’m all ears”.
Reading comprehension is important on Internet forums
Waaaaaahhh I’m going to run away from the meanies who call me pitiful for disagreeing with their opinions
LOL lame
Am I “wrong” when saying Morales is a better BA hitter then EE…..No
Am I wrong when saying Morales will hit for a decent average and EE hasn’t….No. Morales has flirted with 300 many times. And only has a 250 260 line when returning from injuries/layoffs. Which brings his career line down
Am I wrong by saying 124 vs 115 is similar?.. No
Am I wrong by saying his 3 YEAR CONTRACT is in line with our core of JD Tulo Martin…oh that must have meant I put Martin in MVP contention to right?
“21st best “….. does every player need to be #1 at their position to be valued to a team. What’s Pillar worth. Travis? Do we boot them off the team next cause they aren’t Trout or Seager?
I’m still waiting to hear who these well paid people are and where to find these well written and peer reviewed studies they conducted
EE playing in a hitter park and doing nothing while Morales was at all star caliber in an angels and mariners uniform speaks volumes to an entire career. EE has had a few amazing seasons and nothing else. His old moniker was E3. For the huge amount of gaffes we would endure during his beginning on the Jays
Those 4 years Morales spent in KC after busting his leg in half. Not exactly a fair comparison
And there is HUGE value in having protection in your lineup. It’s the difference between seeing hitable and not hitable pitches on a regular basis.
I’m having fun guys. Why yall so mad. We get to talk about the sport we all apparently love
Cheer up ffs
No one is mad, you are just clearly ignorant when it comes to the meaning of certain stats and largely in the evaluation of what makes a player valuable to a team.
Links for lineup protection not actually making hitters better. Though I imagine you will either not read them, ignore what they say, or think they are also wrong, because you said so.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/pitching-around-batters/
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/primate_studies/discussion/wright_2003-06-30_0/
Thank you. I’ll read those and evaluate the content.
I certainly have a biased view towards my team but I don’t feel that comment has any value other then as an insult with no merit
I can certainly evaluate players from a fan prospective. I’m not a GM or Scout. And care little about the advanced stats. And very little for even the “old time” stats.
Yes all Stats have some value. But they all must be put into context in some way.
Josh Donaldson is a prime example of an average player going from a crap ballpark and an even crappier team, only to flourish in a better ballpark on a stacked lineup.
Would he be putting up those numbers in Oakland on that team? Sadly our DeLorean is broke. So we will never know the true answer. But I’d be willing to bet even both of you would agree to that point.
And we can talk about on base percentage or slugging or obps or any other advanced stats. But again it’s context.
Runner 2nd and 3rd 2 outs.
YAY my favorite player walked. His on base goes up another point
Dammit the next guy on deck struck out
Game over.
Vs
Yay my favorite player hit a single the other way to score 2 runs and we win the game cause he wasn’t trying to hit a 3 run Homer (EE) and the guy on deck behind him is an MVP or former MVP or former batting champ or etc etc etc
What good is a walk when the guy behind him ends the game
It’s a team game again guys.
The jays are building a team
“Am I “wrong” when saying Morales is a better BA hitter then EE…..No”
Again:
.267/.330/.444/.774, 112 OPS+ – Morales last 5 seasons
.272/.367/.544/.912, 146 OPS+ – Encarnacion last 5 seasons
Yes, you were clearly, comically, ignorantly wrong when you said “Bat for a decent average which EE never has” – Edwin has had a higher BA than Morales for years…
“Am I wrong when saying Morales will hit for a decent average and EE hasn’t….No”
Again,
.267/.330/.444/.774, 112 OPS+ – Morales last 5 seasons
.272/.367/.544/.912, 146 OPS+ – Encarnacion last 5 seasons
How is a higher BA than Morales not “decent” when you claim Morales will post a “decent average”?
And why are we even talking about BA when it is one of the more useless commonly repeated stats in the game?
“Am I wrong by saying 124 vs 115 is similar?.. No”
You clearly dont understand OPS+ at all
…or maybe you really do feel Morales (108 OPS+) hit just like Justin Morneau (100 OPS+) last season? Why not sign Morneau to 3/33 then since he is basically the same hitter as Morales in your limited understanding of the stats? Sure Justin would be thrilled!
But why are we even using the numbers of 124 and 115 anyway? Those are numbers influenced by 10+ years ago! The more relevant time frame is this:
.267/.330/.444/.774, 112 OPS+ – Morales last 5 seasons
.272/.367/.544/.912, 146 OPS+ – Encarnacion last 5 seasons
…and do you think 112 OPS+ is “just like” a 142 OPS+ too?
“Those 4 years Morales spent in KC after busting his leg in half.”
FYI, Morales was in KC only 2 seasons, not 4 (just another in a endless list of comically incorrect statements, but figured I would point it out)…
But lets just go with this for a sec …so you are happy the Jays signed the 21st best hitting 1B with a leg that is “broken in half” to a 3/33 contract when similar/better hitters without broken in half legs are still available and will possibly be forced to take something in the 1/10 range?
Seriously, a conversation would be easier if you had any idea what so ever what you were talking about and bothered to post anything at all resembling reality…
Nah. You just like to argue baseless points and ignore everything I point out. Kinda like my 8 year old lol
Also I’m not sure why you’re trying to get me to defend the point EE is worse then Morales. I’ve never said that. Nor so I believe it.
I’ve said the same thing since the first post here’s a summation
Atkins and Shapiro are not to blame. Rogers and the players deciding not to sign are where fan anger should be placed
Morales is a great plan B for this market in this year at this time for this team.
Morales is far from “Dramatically inferior” and as a CAREER could be considered better.
Would I trade EE for Morales today. Yes.
Will it happen. No
So why dream. Why pit energy in something that’s done. EE GONE.
So who to replace him. Trumbo? Carter?
What big name was out there that got signed before we got him
Morales was and still is the best choice for this teams plan B. Regardless how u try to spin in
Ignore everything you point out? Uhm, I basically quote everything you point out …which is actually your problem, as none of it ever makes any sense and is rarely based on reality (you are actually the one who ignores everything you dont want to hear/have to address)
You wanted to argue that Morales with the .267 BA the last 5 years puts up better BAs than EE with the .272 BA the last 5 years, and that Edwin never puts up “decent” BA numbers despite having a better BA than Morales …that is the comically stupid argument you chose to have, I just went along with it rather shocked that a person could be that ignorant, really…
“So who to replace him. Trumbo? Carter?”
Trumbo is 3 years younger, doesnt have a “broken in half leg” and is off a 120 OPS+ year (Morales is off a 108 OPS+)
Carter is 4 years younger, doesnt have a “broken in half leg” and is off a 114 OPS+ year (Morales is off a 108 OPS+)
…yes, either of them would have been better options, and both of them are still available on the market – hence the Jays rushing with the reactionary signing of Morales being so foolish. The Jays jumped out way in front of the market, signing a lesser player when a glut of similar/superior players were available for very few open roster spots around the league.
Had the Jays shown any patience, they likely could have had a better player at a lesser cost and lesser commitment – that is the truth you adamantly dont want to have to admit or address for homer and/or ego reasons
Reality is, there was no need for a “plan B” – the Jays signed Morales 6 (SIX!!!) weeks before Edwin even signed. Had they waited, they likely could have had EE for the 3/60 he signed for in Cleveland, and at minimum could have gotten Morales or a similar/better hitter for less money/fewer years. But the Jays were unbelievably impatient and rushed to sign a 34 YO DH with a “broken in half leg” to a 3/33 contract months before any market was developed for his skill set
As of today, the Jays signed a power-hitting DH/1B to a rather large/long (relatively speaking) contract roughly TWO MONTHS(!) before the market developed for the massive glut of similar power-hitting DH/1B types available in FA, and even a month and a half before the market for their “plan A” was known.
Thats all a beyond dumb move on the FOs part
His leg isn’t currently broken in half.
In the last 5 years if EE was on KC and Morales was on the Jays EE would likely hit 250 max with 30 HR max and lucky to get 100 RBIS
Morales would have been a legit 300 hitter Also mashed 30 and certainly got 100 RBIs
I don’t see why that point is lost on you.. because a bunch of advanced stats say otherwise? Those stats again are only valid in context. And bring little value to an Internet discussion and we’re only created to get extra dollars in arb hearings and contract negotiations
Thankfully you don’t run the Jays.
“Those stats again are only valid in context. And bring little value to an Internet discussion and we’re only created to get extra dollars in arb hearings and contract negotiations”
And this is when you know someone isn’t even worth having a conversation with.
Yet you continue to reply and refuse to even acknowledge that these “stats” you refer to including the old time BA HR RBIs are indicators of what you have done. Not what you’re going to do
Saunders set LF on fire for the first half. All Stats will tell you that. Old time and advanced stats.
With your logic the Jays should have locked him into a 7 year 105 million deal. Leaving “value” in the deal while locking in those stats for the duration of the contract.
Again. Good thing you aren’t the GM
…and you again ignore the unbelievable stupidity of the Tor FO being detailed out, (despite having claimed that is the conversation you really wanted to have) to once more try and change the subject to again highlight your pure statistical ignorance by making up bizarre fantasies with no grounding in reality what so ever and outlandish claims you pulled out of who knows where…
And seriously, your lack of understanding of statistics is truly astonishing here. Like its honestly in the “Im not sure the last time I came across someone who understood stats this little” territory range – its like you have lived in a cocoon for the last 40 years or something
OPS+ is adjusted for Park Factor …you know what that means, right?
And FYI, KC has a 105 Batting Hitting Factor, with it only being that low because the park suppresses the HR totals of Left Handed Hitters – you act like its Oak (93 Batting Park Factor) or something, again merely highlighting your own extreme ignorance on the subject (just like you did earlier in the conversation regarding Park Factors, with your claims about hitting will somehow be hard for Edwin in Cleveland; thats a location with a 110 Batting Park Factor (compare that to Tor at 111)
But we know, we know… all the important stats were only “created to get extra dollars in arb hearings and contract negotiations” and the only stat that REALLY matters is… Batting Average (the only one you seem to ever focus on, despite it being proven decades ago to hold little value in the actual game)
…and in your reply to Chester it looks as though you wanted to quadruple down to make sure everyone was perfectly clear on just how little you actually know about stats with an entire post dedicated to thinking behind this line:
“Yet you continue to reply and refuse to even acknowledge that these “stats” you refer to including the old time BA HR RBIs are indicators of what you have done. Not what you’re going to do”
…please, do yourself a favor and look up the defecation of OPS and OPS+ – you are doing nothing but embarrassing yourself by willfully displaying such extreme ignorance of what you are insisting on talking about
Lol
How long did you waste typing all that out to feel your OPINION is superior
I’ll give it to you one last time
Rogers is to Blame for any blundered contract negotiations with EE. Shapiro and Atkins are handcuffed with what to offer how long etc. We do NOT act like the massive market we are having the entire country backing us while owning the cable company and sports channels plus getting the Stadium at pennies on the dollar.
All of the advanced stats you spew are nothing but ways for players and agents to get more money in contract and arbitration hearings. Period
Any and all Stats are indicators of you have have DONE. Not a predictor of the future. They can be used to try to make an EDUCATED GUESS of what may be more likely to happen
The STATS don’t lie. EE only has the edge is HR by a wide margin. All the other stats are quite similar or tilted to Morales.
Also these advanced stats were created by a baseball geek who valued some factors over other. The STATS ARE JUST COMPLEX MATH EQUATIONS WITH RANDOM VALUES ASSIGNED TO CERTAIN STATS
If you change any of those arbitrary values your numbers dramatically change also. Which is why I give little value to those stats as HR are WAY OVERVALUED. Hence the reason a Carter or Trumbo seems like a good idea while being a BLACK HOLE in the lineup
Pick up a math book. A science book. Then a book on treating others with respect. Read them all and come back and tell us what you’ve learned
First, I havent typed opinions – I have typed facts …and they take just a min or two to produce, but thanks for the concern!
“Rogers is to Blame for any blundered contract negotiations with EE. Shapiro and Atkins are handcuffed with what to offer how long etc.”
… Shapiro and Atkins signed Morales 6 weeks prior to even knowing how much EE (their “Plan A”) would end up costing a team – that is their fault, and has nothing to do with Rogers
Shapiro and Atkins also signed Morales 2+ months before knowing what Morales himself and similar players would cost them (we still dont know even now, Morales could have ended up needing to settle for 1/7 million for all we know considering this collapsed COF/1B/DH market that Shapiro and Atkins jumped out in front of by 2+ months
“All of the advanced stats you spew are nothing but ways for players and agents to get more money in contract and arbitration hearings. Period”
Since you still didnt look up the definitions and still have zero idea what you are talking about, I will help you out:
OPS – On Base Percentage (OBP) + Slugging Percentage (SLG)
…you know, its percentage of times you got on base plus how many bases you average per AB. It is hardly that much of an advanced stat – its simple addition of two long documented numbers…
OPS+ – exactly the same thing, but this one takes into account Park Factors and League Averages
…it tells you exactly the same thing as OPS, but every player is put on a perfectly even playing field this time. An OPS+ in one stadium would have been the same in any other stadium – meaning Morales at 108 in KC will similarly be 108 OPS+ in Tor.
…and it is on a 100 scale because anything over/under 100 tells you how much better/worse than the average a player is (Morales is roughly 8% better than League Average the last 3 seasons, while EE was 43% better than League Average) …again, hardly the most complicated of stats here
“Any and all Stats are indicators of you have have DONE”
…yes, it indicates what their skill levels have been based off what they have done – and what Morales has done has been only an 8% better than Average hitter as a DH limited player. This is fairly dime-a-dozen production, as ~8% better than average is fairly easy to find and anyone can DH
“The STATS don’t lie. EE only has the edge is HR by a wide margin.”
The stats:
.267/.330/.444/.774, 112 OPS+ – Morales last 5 seasons
.272/.367/.544/.912, 146 OPS+ – Encarnacion last 5 seasons
Which means:
EE was 05 points better in BA (hit average)
EE was 37 points better in OBP (getting on base)
EE was 100 points better in SLG (extra base hits)
EE was 138 points better in OPS (gauge of total value)
Which is why EE was 43% better than the Average hitter over that time, while Morales was only 8% better than the Average
…that is hardly “only better at HR”
Or lets put it this way, over the last 3 seasons there is very little distinguishable difference between the bat of EE and Josh Donaldson, as you can see here:
.279/.373/.524/.897, 143 OPS+ – Donaldson
.269/.361/.544/.905, 143 OPS+ – Encarnacion
Meanwhile, there was very little distinguishable difference between Morales and Stephen Vogt, as you can see here:
.261/.322/.425/.747, 108 OPS+ – Vogt
.262/.328/.442/.770, 108 OPS+ – Morales
…now, would you similarly argue that Steven Vogt has been pretty similar to Josh Donaldson, as you somehow insist regarding EE/Morales?
…then you spend paragraphs ranting and raving about OPS as if it is some complex math equation recently developed by super-brains or something – this despite the fact that it is literally nothing but OBP + SLG (two stats which have been calculated forever and have been on the back of pretty much every baseball card since at least around 1980). Now of course OPS is the single most commonly used stat to quickly value players by everyone from grade-schoolers to front offices – you seem to be one of the only people alive who have absolutely zero idea what it is, yet still obsessively argues it as somehow not being worth anything
So might I suggest you learn absolutely anything about what you are talking about before insisting on arguing a subject? That is what I am talking about regarding your ignorance – and boy do you ever seem to love to display that ignorance for the entire world to see…
Excellent analysis. Thanks. I wouldn’t respond anymore, they are just pushing buttons.
First. “the world” probably has no clue about this site (no offense mlbtr)
Second. You do realize I’m skimming what you write because there’s no point in arguing with someone who only looks at the trees and ignores the forest.
3rd. I’ve shared time and again. Stats are good in context. I’m not saying they are useless. And I’m not saying it’s a way to predict the future. There are to many examples to state of players setting AAA on fire to never hit over 190 and other languish for years then get a chance and are all Stars etc etc etc.
If it were so easy to look at stats and draft a player sign a FA or negotiate a contract. Computers would do it. But there is a human element in scouting and that means you can toss all your fancy numbers out the window in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs and a runner on 3rd down by 1
Who would you take by the numbers Donaldson or Joe Carter?
Well one ended a Play off series with a Homer and one ended it with a weak grounder to 2nd
What do the numbers tell you?
I’m sure you said a whole lot more to I haven’t addressed several times. Does it make you mad bro? Lol
I’m happy with my “ignorance” I’ll keep being blissfully ignorant while we build a competitive team and ignorantly hope our ownership comes around and acts like the big market we are to compete with the retooling yanks and big budget Sox
Keep sweating the OBP of your favorite player after dark vs LHP on a breaking ball with a 3-2 count after he ate a hot dog for lunch.
But hold the onions. That drops is a half percent
Offends the ump. They are closers then u think
Trident freshens your breath
Yay!
Analysis? Lol
He’s copy pasting statistics other people have collected. Given their opinion as to what they mean. Agrees with their sentiment. And publishes it on an Internet forum to garner attention from strangers as some sort of baseball guru lol
Is this scientology?
Tom Cruise is that you?
“If it were so easy to look at stats and draft a player sign a FA or negotiate a contract. Computers would do it.”
..uhm, computerizes do do it – the only need for the people are to communicate with the player.
Some people are fantastic at it (Cleveland properly reading the EE market and getting a huge bargain, for instance) and some are straight horrific at it (Toronto rushing to sign Morales for too-much/too-long months before they had any idea what value EE or Morales had on the market, for instance)
“Who would you take by the numbers Donaldson or Joe Carter? Well one ended a Play off series with a Homer and one ended it with a weak grounder to 2nd”
…ohhh, well Donaldson grounded out once so clearly he is the bum no one should sign!
*sigh*
“Does it make you mad bro?”
…based off the mind-loss and mindless errors in your posts, it is clear you are the only one who has been mad the entire time – Im just laughing at your blatant attempt at trolling and wishful thinking, straight destroying everything you say with actual facts in the face of your beyond ignorant nonsense that largely makes no sense at all (Im honestly having fun here knowing you are going so insane too, and its pretty hysterical how stupid the things you say actually are)
“I’m happy with my “ignorance”
…yeah, we get that – absolutely zero idea what you are talking about, but love to obsessively argue it anyway!
“while we build a competitive team”
…this conversation has basically been around the Jays replacing a Josh Donaldson Bat clone with a Stephen Vogt Bat clone… good luck with that competitiveness!
And just going to put those numbers here again, just because it is so comical
.261/.322/.425/.747, 108 OPS+ – Stephen Vogt 3yr avg
.262/.328/.442/.770, 108 OPS+ – Morales 3yr avg
.279/.373/.524/.897, 143 OPS+ – Donaldson 3yr avg
.269/.361/.544/.905, 143 OPS+ – Encarnacion 3yr avg
…but dont worry, as you obsessively argued for like a day now, there is really no difference between the bat of Donaldson/EE and the bat of Vogt/Morales!
Thanks for entertaining me with your ignorance, its been hysterical!
Yes it is me, Tom, how did you know?
You’re welcome!!
OK OK I get it Thank you for your explanation.
The competiveness and the atmosphere at Rogers centre was incredible the past two years, I’m willing to pay for that. But if this becomes a sub 500 club again I’ll watch the empty stadium from my couch.
Joey Batflip back in TO? Ben I know your heart is still in Boston. Thanks pal!
Just heard on SiriusXM 81 that its 1 year $20 million with a $20 million option and a $4 million buyout. If that turns out to be what he gets, what do you think Blue Jays fans?
So assuming they void the option and pay the 4 million buyout, that means the Jays will be paying a combined 42.5 million next season for the 36 YO Jose off a 117 OPS+ season, the 34 YO Morales off a 108 OPS+ year and the 34 YO career platoon player, Pearce, with his career 110 OPS+
…seems there had to have been much, much, MUCH better ways to spend 42.5 Million
One of my least favorite players sticks with one of my least favorite teams. Good.
Obvious homer is obvious.
I’m not a fan.
Got a problem with that?
i know how mark trumbo feels my friends ignore me
Now that the Jays have signed Bautista, the Jays need a top of the rotation starter, this starting pitcher group won’t repeat last year’s success going forward. Plus we need at least 2 additional relievers…