This is the ninth entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory series. Click for entries on the White Sox, Royals, Phillies, Pirates, Giants, Padres, Reds and Braves.
The Tigers entered the 2017 campaign with the seemingly realistic goal of contending for a playoff spot, but their season has gone off the rails in recent weeks. Losers of eight straight, the Tigers own the American League’s worst record (32-42) and sit seven games out of a wild-card spot and 7.5 games behind AL Central-leading Cleveland. With the trade deadline approaching, Detroit looks like a seller in the making, which general manager Al Avila essentially admitted earlier this week when he indicated he’d listen to teams’ offers for his veteran players.
Rentals
J.D. Martinez, RF | Salary: $11.75MM
As an impending free agent in the midst of his fourth straight excellent season at the plate, the 29-year-old Martinez stands out as the Tigers’ most obvious trade chip. A foot injury suffered in spring training kept Martinez out of action until May, but he has returned to slash a red-hot .288/.373/.626 with 12 home runs and a .338 ISO in 161 plate appearances. While those power numbers will regress (he slugged .540 and posted a .241 ISO from 2014-16), Martinez will remain a significant offensive threat when they do. Few major leaguers are hitting the ball harder than Martinez this year, per Statcast (via Baseball Savant), and he’s also running what’s easily a career-high walk rate (12.4 percent). Dating back to last season, Martinez has been rather weak in the field, where he registered minus-22 defensive runs saved and a minus-17.2 Ultimate Zone Rating in 2016 (and has already been worth minus-5 DRS this year). Despite that, teams in need of an offensive jolt will show pre-deadline interest in the reasonably priced slugger.
Alex Avila, C | Salary: $2MM
As impressive as Martinez’s batted-ball numbers are, Avila’s might be even better. The resurgent 30-year-old, who’s the son of Detroit’s GM, trails only Aaron Judge and Miguel Sano in average exit velocity (93.9 mph) and paces the majors in rate of balls hit at least 95 mph (62 percent). That has led to a ridiculous .320/.438/.588 line in 185 PAs for the lefty-swinging Avila, who has emerged as one of the newest poster boys in baseball’s fly ball revolution. Avila’s fly ball rate has nearly doubled since last season (from 22.8 percent to 41 percent), and he has cut down on strikeouts while managing an elite-level walk rate for the third straight year. As with Martinez, some regression is in order (Avila won’t sustain a .433 batting average on balls in play, for instance), and Avila’s pitch-framing numbers leave plenty to be desired on the defensive side. But the onetime All-Star’s offensive revival looks worthy of betting on, especially given his cheap salary. A contender like the Red Sox could clearly use more offensive production from behind the plate, and their president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski, is quite familiar with Avila after previously serving as the Tigers’ GM.
Controlled Through 2018
Ian Kinsler, 2B | Salary: $11MM in 2017; $10MM club option (or a $5MM buyout) in 2018
It would make sense for the Tigers to shop the 35-year-old Kinsler, who’s amid another solid season, but moving him won’t be easy. He can block deals to 10 teams, for one, and wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade rights over the winter unless a contract extension came with it. Also, barring injuries, it doesn’t look as if second basemen will be in high demand prior to the deadline.
Justin Wilson, RP | Salary: $2.7MM in 2017; arbitration eligible in 2018
Teams might not line up for Kinsler should he land on the block, but given the ever-increasing importance of bullpens in today’s game, the same won’t be true for Wilson if the Tigers shop him. The 29-year-old left-hander took over for the just-released Francisco Rodriguez as Detroit’s closer earlier in the season, and while save opportunities have been scarce, Wilson has still offered quality production when the team has turned to him. After averaging more than a strikeout per inning in each season from 2014-16, Wilson’s K/9 has increased to a career-best 12.84, and he’s running a palatable 2.96 ERA/3.50 FIP/3.58 xFIP trio. There are some concerns here, including an elevated walk rate (3.95 per nine, up from 2.61 last season) and a career-low ground-ball percentage (35.0, down from 54.9 in 2016), but effective, low-priced relievers who throw hard are hot commodities.
Jose Iglesias, SS | Salary: $4.1MM in 2017; arbitration eligible in 2018
It’s unclear whether the Tigers will market Iglesias. If they do, though, the Marlins’ return for the on-the-block Adeiny Hechavarria will be worth watching for Detroit. Hechavarria is a similar player to Iglesias and comes with matching team control and a nearly identical salary (Hechavarria makes $4.35MM). Like Hechavarria, Iglesias is a defense-first shortstop, though the latter was once a league-average hitter. That has changed over the past two seasons, as the 27-year-old Iglesias has combined to bat just .255/.306/.366 with four homers across 513 PAs. To his credit, Iglesias has saved 12 runs (including nine already this year) and posted a 16.3 UZR over that time.
Longer-Term Assets
Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Shane Greene, Alex Wilson
Of the three-high priced names on this list (Upton, Cabrera and Verlander), Upton is the only one with iffy team control status. At the end of the season, the left fielder will have the chance to opt out of the remaining four years and $88MM left on his contract, which won’t do his trade value any favors. The 29-year-old Upton has rebounded from a disappointing 2016, his first season in Detroit, to slash .268/.354/.496 with 14 long balls in 288 trips to the plate to perhaps make an opt-out a bit more realistic than it previously looked. The odds of a trade, on the other hand, appear remote.
Cabrera and Verlander are on even larger salaries than Upton over the next several years, and both have earned full no-trade rights. Those factors make potential trades complicated enough, but when you add in that both are 34 and now look downright mortal relative to their usual selves, in-season deals for either probably aren’t happening.
It’s debatable whether the Tigers should shop Greene or Wilson (or any other inexpensive assets), as they’ll need cheap contributors to step up in their forthcoming efforts to cut spending. Avila did listen to offers for Greene last winter, though, and he could continue to pique bullpen-needy teams’ interest as a hard thrower who’s making a near-minimum salary and comes with three arbitration-eligible years of control. Greene, 28, has pitched to a 3.57 ERA and posted 9.68 K/9 against 4.58 BB/9, with a 46.7 percent grounder rate, over 35 1/3 innings this season. Wilson also carries some appeal as a high-velocity righty with an affordable salary this season ($1.175MM) and two arb-eligible years. He doesn’t bring Greene’s bat-missing ability to the table, but the 30-year-old Wilson has survived a below-average K/9 (5.77) during his 230 2/3-inning career to post a 2.93 ERA (3.69 this season).
I really feel bad for Tigers fans. No World Series trophy and they’re looking at a god awful ten year rebuild.
Lol 10 years is a little ridiculous. We definitely need to sell and hopefully they can pull in something similar to what we received in 2015. After 2018, almost everyone is off the books, with Miggy really being the only bad contract. A lot of it will depend on how much Chris Illitch is willing to spend, and how the young pitchers pan out.
According to Avila,”we’ve been sinking with lousy deals that Trader Dave made. Plus he traded away the farm to bring in over the hill veterans. It’s just going to take time to cycle through this mess as some contracts just won’t go away”.
Actually, looking at Tiger history for the last 100 plus years, 10 years my be on the conservative side. They had great teams with Cobb, nothing in the twenties, World Series team in mid-thirties with the G-man, and once in 1945 with Hal Newhouse. Then nothing until the late sixty early seventies with Kaline and Horton. Twelve years pass until the Bless You Boy teams of Sparky Anderson in 1984 and 1987. Then the Tigers did not get good again until Verlander and Miggy which is nine years later. Ten years sounds about right.
How is Miggy’s contract bad? Do you baseball “enthusiasts” realize what history he is chasing? I’m guessing not since this “bad contract” talk is getting bigger and bigger. He needs to be a full time DH which would lessen the strain on his body. But please do some research on the history he and Pujols are chasing and then realize they will be selling lots of tickets in the years to come as he approaches these milestones.
Lol terrible comment. I’m stoked he signed for a Tiger for life at a high price, so he more than likely will stay a Tiger.
How many milestone games are fans going to come to during his age 39-42 years, when he’s getting paid 100 million ? Yeah, they will sell a few tickets during a few big moment games, but come on man. Do your research. They ain’t pulling in that much money, especially if they are a bad team. At least not to offset the cost and reallocate it to others. Idiot.
I guess you don’t appreciate what he could and probably will accomplish. How many players in the history of MLB have 3,000 hits 2,000 RBIs 600+ HRs and a career 300 hitter? The Answer is 1 Hank Aaron. Pujols will be second. He will put people in seats and he will continue to sell merchandise but I know ass holes like you are smarter than every GM in baseball right…?
I’m guessing you were probably one of the people that thought Trout deserved the MVPs over Miggy too.
Trade miggy to a comteneder such as Houston or Colorado or twins or Red Sox. But anyway enough with the teams. They should trade him for prospects that could be ready next year or two years
I don’t feel bad at all. Who’s homegrown from the Tigers? Very few. I tend to identify with franchises that grow their own talent or acquire young talent and develop them. Teams that are bad at developing young talent deserve to be in the position they’re in.
This is an oft-repeated mantra that doesn’t tell the whole truth. Many of Detroit’s stars were acquired via trade for the homegrown talent that is now gone. They added a few big FA’s (Victor Martinez, Jordan Zimmerman, Justin Upton), but Cabrera, Iglesias, Fulmer, Norris, Justin Wilson and Shane Greene all came in trade. Verlander, Castellanos and Avila were homegrown.
The Tigers have failed to replenish, that much is true.
c Avila/McCann, 1-Hernan Perez 2-Devon Travis ss-Eugenio Suarez 3- Castellanos LF- Granderson CF Maybin Rf – Avisail Garcia starters- Verlander, Porcello, Smiley Jacob Turner relievers- Andrew Miller, Corey Knebel that’s off the top of my head. I don’t consider that awful.
Add Dixon Machado, IF Jeffry Marte, OF Matt Joyce, SP Drew Smyly, SP Buck Farmer, RP Jose Alvarez, RP Blaine Hardy, RP Daniel Strumpf, and RP Warwick Saupold completes the list of significant players from the Tigers system. Add undervalued free agent JD Martinez to the starting lineup and you could field an entire team.
Just not a post season team.
Even with all the trades DD made, he did not deplete the minors. Most of the players from the minors involved in those trades turned out to be duds.
The Tigers minor league system was terrible when DD became GM in Detroit; its not much better.
Add four lost first round draft choices for the free agents that were signed also.
They should have kept Suarez. He’s developed into a pretty good 3rd baseman. Produces better offensive numbers than Castellanos, then again, you could say the same for other players they’ve traded.
Completely disagree. The common narrative around baseball since 2014 was that the Tigers were going to be the next Phillies. However, this narrative is inaccurate now as it doesn’t account for the great haul the Tigers got in the 2015 sell off (Michael Fulmer in the Cespedes deal and Daniel Norris and Matthew Boyd in the David Price deal). Those trades coupled with some good drafts have stabalized the organization a bit. The Tigers now have very good young pitching in the organization (Fulmer, Norris, Boyd, Manning, Burrows, Faedo, Alexander, etc.). The problem with their minor league system is a lack of positional talent. For this reason, the Tigers system is still below average and a sell off is needed. Despite this, the Tigers have a few positional starters/major-league-caliber guys under 27 (Iglesias, Castellanos, McCann, Machado) that can soften the rebuild (although they’re not stars). The Tigers will be bad for the next few years but the rebuild will not be as painful as you say due to the work they’ve already done. If they successfully replenish their young positional talent through trades of their current assets during deadline and the offseason, they could be back in playoff contention by 2020.
Would the Tigers want to move Verlander for Headley and Gardner. Salaries are similar and the Yanks need top end pitching. Just thinking out of the box. This would open up spots for the young outfielders.
No chance.
Miggy’s contract and Verlander’s contract are tough to move, other teams would have to take on some of the money , and I don’t see any teams doing that plus giving up prospects.
Verlander’s is pretty reasonable. Two years after this at $28M and a third at $22M if he finishes in the top 5 in Cy Young in 2019. That’s not out of line in this market.
If verlander is throwing well at the deadline he could be moved. The Tigers wouldn’t have to eat salary, though they could to get a better trade return.
The last thing tigers would want is more washed up veterans lol if they’re trading they need young pieces back. I feel the most likely trade between those teams would be a prospect or 2 for Justin Wilson
They’d want younger controllable assets, not aging players like Headley and Gardner.
And the Tigers would want Headley and Gardner because….?
1.. They have a need for a 3b and LF. (NOPE)
2. They are building blocks for the next great Tiger team (NOPE)
3. The Tigers have too much pitching and need to open a spot in the rotation (NOPE)
4. The Tigers need to reduce payroll and this would help (NOPE)
Now we could use a young outfielder, and you say you have some?
Tigers will move JD Martinez and Avila almost certainly. The rest depends on what kind of offers they get. Payroll naturally reduces over time, they should have little problem getting under the CBT threshold for 2018. So they do not have to dump their higher salary players for that reason. And anyone other than the two above can be held for now pending attempts to trade them in the off season or next year’s deadline hoping for better return later. That said, there is a good chance they do get offers for Justin Wilson and Ian Kinsler that are good enough to move them.
Tigers and Giants have a lot in common these days – thin minors system, underperforming major league team with a lot of expensive, unmovable veterans. No matter who they trade, the Tigers need to get solid young CF prospect in return. CF for DET has been like LF for SF.
The Red Sox would do well to re-acquire SS Jose Iglesias to play that position in Boston. Doing so would allow the club to move Xander Bogaerts to 3B where he is defensively better suited. Iglesais played injured in 2016, slumping at the plate, but hit .300 in his two prior campaigns following his initial stint in Boston. He would tighten up Boston’s inner defense in short order.
Interesting thought. My only concern would be how it would affect Boegarts mentally. Because when the Red Sox added Stephen Drew to play SS a few seasons ago it hurt Boegarts play bigly.
agreed it looks good on paper but I don’t think it’s worth the risk
Justin Wilson to the Yankees for Sheffield and Frazier.
lolz?
Acquiring an elite reliever is going to cost a lot. Think they will take Green and Cessa for him? LOLz
that’s too much he will cost a good amount but that’s the key pieces of the Miller deal
I could see the Yankees making a play for Wilson. Especially with Clippard struggling so badly
Or the Nationals
It’s sad that Miggy is turning into Pujols. A hall of famer who’s mostly associated with a bad contract.
People are a little hard on Miggy. He’s clearly playing hurt (oblique, groin, hip flexor, and back), and just last year he batted .316 with 38 hrs. His contract isn’t obviously good, but I’d still bet on him hitting well above avg for the next few years, especially when he can move to DH in 2019.
On Point. His numbers are way down but he is first in line drive rate and 5 in exit velocity in the American League according to today’s Detroit Free Press.
Pujols is still driving in runs. He’s like 5th in RBI’s in the AL. Miggy is not driving in runs, and is striking out more this season. Something is clearly amiss with him.
I honestly have no clue what the price would be (or if he’d waive his no trade clause), but I could see the braves trying to acquire Verlander if the Tigers sell low.
Why would the rebuilding Braves want an old pitcher with a huge contract like Verlander, and why would Verlander agree to go to Atlanta?
Admittedly a lot of factors would have to go right for it to happen, but based on several comments the last few weeks from Coppy and John Schuerholz I don’t think that the Braves see themselves as strictly rebuilding. Coppy has specifically said recently that the Braves expect to be both buyers and sellers this season. It has also been said that the time for selling major league assets for long term resources was mostly over. I personally interpret those type statements to lead me to believe that the Braves look to buy multiple years of controlled players at lower than normal prices.
Verlander hasn’t had his best year (but was great last season) and is owed significant money. He is under contract for 2018 and 2019 for $28 million per year and has a vesting option for 2020 (provided he finishes in Cy Young top 5 in 2019) for$22 million. It seems very possible that the Tigers might can sell low and the Braves spend some of their excess young talent.
As far as why Verlander might be willing to waive his no trade agreement if you look at the Braves organization in 2018/19 their outlook appears better than that of the Tigers. Verlander would also have the chance to reunite with his former pitching coach.
Look I’m not saying it is likely, only that it definitely would be in the realm of possibility.
st louis and detroit are both going now where. i suggest they just swap rosters and give the players a fresh start.
good idea
They forgot to say that Brad Ausmus will be available after the team returns from this disastrous road trip. If ever there was a time that he needed the team to respond to him, it was now, and they didn’t. Looks like Lloyd will be getting another shot. (hopefully, a temporary one).
matheny should have already been fired.
No mention of Zimmermann? Is it because of the contract or what? He could be a nice 3-4 starter on a contender down the stretch, if Detroit ate some of the money they could get a decent prospect back in return most likely as well.
I mean, I would much rather take a chance on a guy like him than the likes of Ervin Santana, Jaime Garcia, Hellickson, Koehler, etc.
He has a NTC through 18 so I’m guessing that has a huge part of it. He’s a Midwest kid that made it clear he wants to say in the Midwest, not really sure how that plays.
he’s got big time negative value he’s underperforming a big deal they would have to eat a lot of money
Assets are supposed to have value. I don’t see any when combining Zimmermann’s performance and salary. That’s also why Anibal Sanchez didn’t make the list.
.255 is league average.