This is the 13th entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory Series.
The non-waiver trade deadline is just 19 days away, and over the coming weeks there will be several teams that at one point looked to be fringe contenders but are now gravitating toward marketing certain veteran assets. One such club is the Blue Jays, who are reportedly open to offers on their short-term veterans. There’s an important distinction to make between that and operating as a full-on seller; there’s yet to be any serious indication that the Jays are interested in a lengthy rebuild. In fact, Toronto has reported interest in acquiring Dee Gordon and has reportedly scouted Jose Quintana.
It’s easy to get caught up in the dichotomy of “buyers” versus “sellers,” but the lines are nowhere near so black and white for most clubs. The Jays could look to move some expensive assets right now — the veterans they’re reportedly open to moving are relatively well compensated and have been injured and/or haven’t performed up to standard — while also adding some longer-term pieces for a reloaded run in 2018 and beyond. That said, here’s a look at what they have to offer, both in terms of short-term pieces and higher-impact, long-term pieces (if a larger tear-down is eventually settled upon).
[Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart | Toronto Blue Jays Payroll Outlook]
Rentals
Marco Estrada, RHP (starter) | Salary: $14MM (approx. $6.27MM remaining)
The most interesting name among the Blue Jays’ rentals, Estrada was in the midst of a brilliant season before an awful month of June and a clunker in early July torpedoed his ERA. That said, the righty still has intriguing peripherals, with 9.8 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 and a fastball that’s noticeably harder than it was in 2016 (though still sits at an average of just 90.1 mph). Estrada’s chase rate and swinging-strike rate are both the second-best of his career as well. Estrada has a history of back issues, but if a team believes him to be fully healthy and thinks June was largely an aberration, he could be a significant upgrade to a big league rotation for two months or so.
Francisco Liriano, LHP (starter) | $13MM ($5.83MM)
Consistency was always an issue for Liriano before he signed with the Pirates, but his previous control issues came back to haunt him in Pittsburgh last year, prompting a trade to Toronto. He was sensational down the stretch in 2016, but the Jays have had the bad version of Liriano for much of the current season. The 33-year-old’s strikeout and walk rates have both raced in the opposite direction of last year’s excellent post-trade marks, and his 44.9 percent grounder rate is his worst since 2012. It’s cliche to call Liriano “mercurial” or “enigmatic” at this point, but the labels fit. If a pitching-needy team feels like it can solve Liriano, the cost of acquisition won’t be too high.
Jose Bautista, OF/DH | $18.5MM ($8.57MM)
After a terrible April, the “Joey Bats” of old emerged in May — a month during which Bautista was one of the very best hitters on the planet. He followed that up with another terrible month in June, though things have started to even out a bit more recently. It’s been a roller coaster ride for Bautista in 2017, but the strikeouts are up and the power is down; the result to this point is a .234/.349/.400 slash that wRC+ and OPS+ grade as roughly league average. Considering his lack of defensive value, that line won’t cut it. The Jays could market him this summer, but it’ll be tough to get much in return, even if they eat some salary.
Joe Smith, RHP (reliever) | $3MM ($1.34MM)
Smith hasn’t pitched since June 14 due to shoulder inflammation, but he’s most of the way through a minor league rehab stint and has been good when healthy. He’s sporting a 3.41 ERA with considerably better peripherals (13.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 46.5 percent ground-ball rate) through 31 2/3 frames. Assuming he gets healthy, Smith could be an affordable bullpen piece that’ll draw plenty of interest.
J.P. Howell, LHP (reliever) | $3MM ($1.34MM)
Howell (shoulder soreness) is also on the disabled list and partway through a minor league rehab stint, though his season has been much different than that of Smith. The 34-year-old has been limited to just 8 2/3 innings this year because of said shoulder troubles, during which he’s posted an 8.31 ERA and walked more batters (seven) than he’s struck out (five). A healthy Howell is a nice bullpen piece, but teams aren’t going to give up much to get him given this year’s injuries.
Darwin Barney, 2B/SS | $2.8875MM ($1.29MM)
The 31-year-old Barney can play both middle infield positions and has a strong defensive reputation, but his bat has been nonexistent in 2017. Through 168 PAs, he’s hitting .231/.277/.295. He was a valuable bench piece in Toronto as recently as 2016, though, so a team could speculatively pick him up on the cheap and hope for a bit more with the bat.
Controlled Through 2018
Josh Donaldson, 3B | $11.65MM in 2017, $17MM in 2018
To be as clear and up-front as possible, there’s been no serious suggestion that the Jays are willing to even entertain offers on the 2015 American League MVP. Donaldson missed about six weeks of the season due to a calf injury (which played a huge role in the team’s poor first half) but has been productive, albeit not quite his dominant self when healthy. Through 193 PAs, he’s slashing .261/.383/.484 with nine homers and nine doubles. The Blue Jays won’t move Donaldson unless they’re seriously considering at least a medium-scale rebuild, as moving him would almost immediately signal a white flag of sorts for the 2018 season. If Donaldson is made available (a big “if”), he’d require an enormous package of talent featuring multiple top prospects and/or MLB-ready commodities.
J.A. Happ, LHP (starter) | $13MM in 2017, $13MM in 2018
Moving Happ wouldn’t quite be the 2018 concession that a Donaldson trade would represent, but he’d still require a notable package of young talent to acquire. After reinventing himself following a trade from Seattle to Pittsburgh in 2015, Happ has maintained much of that newfound excellent in his second go-around with the Jays. Elbow inflammation cost him a couple of months of the 2017 season, but he’s been strong since returning from the disabled list. Dating back to Opening Day 2016, Happ boasts a 3.27 ERA, 7.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 256 innings. He’s a solid and fairly priced mid-rotation arm, meaning he won’t come cheaply in a trade.
Steve Pearce, 1B/OF/2B | $6.25MM in 2017, $6.25MM in 2018
Pearce hasn’t hit nearly as well as he did with the Orioles in 2014 or the Rays in 2016. His .259/.320/.430 slash is solid enough, and he’s still a power threat against lefties that can play multiple positions on the field. But he, too, has spent time on the DL this season, and his salary isn’t necessarily cheap if he can’t rediscover some of his 2014 or 2016 form at the dish.
Aaron Loup, LHP (reliever) | $1.125MM in 2017, arb-eligible through 2018
Loup can miss bats and keep the ball on the ground, but his walk rate has soared in 2017 while lefties have clobbered him. I doubt he’s going to be anyone’s Plan A or B, but he could still change hands on deadline day even if the Jays aren’t punting on the 2018 season. He’s a non-tender candidate after the year but has a decent track record against lefty batters.
Longer-Term Assets
Justin Smoak, 1B | $4.125MM in 2017, $4.125MM in 2018 (plus $6MM club option/$250K buyout for 2019)
The Yonder Alonso of the East, Smoak has gone from busted prospect to All-Star in short order thanks to a revamped swing plane and, as he tells it, some offseason work with a sports psychologist. The contract is so affordable that even if he takes a bit of a step back, he now looks like a bargain. This time last year, most were curious as to why the Jays offered him a two-year extension. Now, any team looking for help at first base or DH — and there admittedly aren’t many — would love to buy into his new approach. The lack of a market and his highly affordable contract make a deal seem unlikely, though.
Jeff Beliveau, LHP (reliever) | Not arbitration-eligible until 2018-19 offseason
Beliveau has proven to be a nice find on a minor league deal for the Jays, having tossed 32 innings with a 3.09 ERA, 12.1 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in Triple-A prior to a big league promotion. It’s been more of the same through his first 14 1/3 innings back in the Majors; he’s worked to a 3.14 ERA with a 15-to-4 K/BB ratio. The sample of work is pretty small, and Beliveau was out of the Majors for most of two seasons due to 2015 surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder. The value here isn’t huge, but a team looking for some left-handed relief help might kick the tires.
Marcus Stroman, RHP (starter) | $3.4MM in 2017, arb-eligible through 2020 (Super Two)
Speaking of unlikely, a Stroman trade would only happen if the Jays elected to completely tear things down. I don’t expect that to happen, but as a pitcher who has already reached arbitration and is going to make a nice raise on an already decent salary in arbitration, Stroman would be the one long-term rotation piece I could see moving in that scenario. Again, though, it’s not likely.
Large Contracts
- Kendrys Morales, 1B/DH | $10MM in 2017, $11MM in 2018, $12MM in 2019
- Troy Tulowitzki, SS | $20MM annually 2017-19, $14MM in 2020 (plus $15MM club option/$4MM buyout for 2021)
- Russell Martin, C | $20MM annually 2017-19
Morales and Tulowitzki aren’t hitting well enough for anyone to really consider taking on either of those deals in a trade, though the Jays wouldn’t mind shedding the cash. Martin’s offense is down somewhat in 2017, but he’s still been a valuable backstop, even if he’s slightly overpaid. That said, he’ll turn 35 this winter with $40MM on the books beyond the current campaign, and there aren’t too many clubs lining up to acquire a catcher in the first place.
Marcus stroman to the Astros for martes Kemp Hernandez and Perez. That’s the deal you guy’s should hope for. It brings a lot back to your table. 3 of whom would start Wright away for you. But in the Astros orginazation they are blocked.
you have some wishful thinking my friend.
That’s significantly less than they “should hope for.”
Jays are not going to trade Stroman period. Forget-about-it.
I think you are talking Tucker and martes in a stroman trade.
Forget that one keep your team and payroll and finish fourth!! The stros are in a position of strength not weakness if they offer those players or even a derek Fisher the Blue Jays may want to seriously consider it but Tucker forget it the stros have plans for him and for them to offer him or Whitley it would be a Bumgarner well before a Stroman.
Houston we have a problem. I can’t see Ross Atkins making a deal with the Astros involving Marcus Stroman that doesn’t include Kyle Tucker.
If Kyle Tucker is dealt for a pitcher Astros fans should hunt down Jim Crane like an escaped pedo from prison and deal him justice.
What else would they trade him for? A hitter who wouldn’t be much of an improvement over anyone else they already have?
Classic
Agreed Kyle Tucker has the same hype that Correa had and according to Luhnow Both Tucker and Whitley are deemed untouchable that was part of what the 100 + loss season’s were for. The Astros will not trade away their perceived future but these excess and bottle necked talent like a Derek Fisher or a Colin Moran, or even pitchers like Martes, Paulino(although suspended) or even a Musgrove is a maybe. But players like JD are a no go as the stros will have to spend wads of cash for retention they are not interested in doing it now with pieces they never factored in before. Stroman for any of those would be a good deal for both but fairy tale dreaming forget it!
Donaldson and Happ for Kyle Tucker, Martes, Bregman, and Whitley/or Paulino
Wow. That’s quite the blockbuster.
I think it’d make a lot more sense if you replaced Happ with Stroman seeing as Donaldson is already 31 and Happ is 34. Otherwise I think that’s way too much young talent going one way for a couple guys that won’t be around very long. I don’t see it happening, but it’d be very interesting.
Dumb
too much money to take on for the stros for JD who could walk in a year.
But Tucker and martes for a stroman is a possibility
I’d jump on that deal.
Okay article, some good analysis some a tad off. This Jay’s fiction about Smoak’s revamped swing has to stop. It is simply not true. The Blue Jays do not have the talent to contend. They didn’t have it last offseason and they don’t have it now. I wish Shapiro would stop saying it and media sites like this would stop buying into that kool-aid. The Jays need at least one elite starter and two very good releivers, one a lefty, and that will get to to the level where they can compete. To put them into championship category they need a real lead off guy, and put Bautista back into 2nd or 3rd in the order. Pillar and Travis are NOT lead off guys.
As far a Smoak goes, what a crock of bolony that “a more reserved approach” can generate more bat speed and help him see the breaking ball. Yeesh. Let’s wait this out, time will tell the truth on Smoak and validate what I have been saying all along..
As far a trades go, trade everyone on the Jays that they can unless the Jays mgmt is willing to empty the farm to obtain the pieces mentioned above that they need, then go all-in and go for the championship. One or the other, there is no inbetween. In between is just Shapiro marketing kool-aid.
Lmao trolls copying and pasting
Your hating on Smoak makes you come off as intellectually challenged.
No hate, just a former MLB bird-dog scout saying what I see, Other baseball professionals see it too. I’d be the first one to pat him on the back if I thought this was a natural thing…no hate here….
…No hate here…but isn’t a bird dog scout basically voluntary? But your keen eye tells u no natural thing? So with no evidence, your accusing him of steroids? Other paid MLB professionals gave him a multi million dollar contract and a blue chip prospect label. And btw the advanced stats such as chase rate, o swing %, etc disagree with ur assessment
Hey don’t disprove his conspiracy theory with facts
Oh and it’s bologna
They should prob clean house. They won’t be able to compete with the Warriors for at least a few years.
stroman for yusniel Diaz, Alvarez and toles
stroman to dodgers for yusniel Diaz, Alvarez and toles
Stroman is going nowhere. The Jays are not trading him.
The Jays wait for you to finish your offer and then ask is that all? Then they proceed to hang up laughing. That’s not close to even intrigue.
Way too light.
More like Calhoun, Lux, and White.
Even that’s way too light. They’d ask for Buehler and a lot more.
There’s this troll pretending he’s a Yankee fan called cereal famine, call him cheerios for short. Cheerios rates trades proposals when he has zero knowledge of the prospects he’s throwing in deals. Maybe ask him if stro show deal is fair. You’ll be amused I’m sure with his response
Silly-boy where’s your list of untouchable prospects..who is everyone! Especially the next Mike Trout+Mickey Mantle rolled into one Blake Rutherford!
There are yinzers who still whine about the Liriano trade.
For some reason.
Cause they had to pay the blue jays to take him lol.
They gave up reese mcguire and harold ramierez too.
If I give you two shoe boxes filled with sand in exchange for you paying my cable bill, would you think you got a good deal because you got the shoe boxes of sand?
Two nobodies to get rid of a terrible contract. Any day.
That’s because it was a dismal trade.
I don’t see the Blue Jays trading Stroman at all. I think he, Sanchez & Osuna are probably untouchable. They’ll only trade Donaldson if they get blown away & they won’t trade Happ unless they get a solid deal. They simply don’t have enough pitching that could step in & even see out the season. The Jays pitching depth is awful thanks to all the trades Anthopolous made in 2015. There aren’t even options at AAA. Maybe they should trade Donaldson, but the Jays are trying to stay relevant in a market where the Maple Leafs are king and are rising. If they trade Donaldson, they could lose the city again & I think that’s a risk that they aren’t willing to take at the moment.
AA started flipping pitching prospects WAY before 2015. Because pitching’s what he knows, so he maximized value on players he drafted. You don’t need options at AAA, plenty of prospects have jumped from AA to the majors.
“thanks to all the trades Anthopolous made ”
Rogers Cable made.
The Blue Jays need a new owner.
Cards take Donaldson and give up Carson Kelly, Flaherty/Weaver (most likely Weaver), and Searia and maybe grichek if the jays think he can be useful in the future with a change of scenery.
Not even close. The Cardinals don’t have even remotely close to enough prospect capital to get a deal with Toronto done.
Yeah cause having 5 guys in basically every top 100 prospect list isn’t enough to land a 31 year old player in a down year with only 1.5 years of control right?
If they wanted to they have more than enough prospect capital to make a trade with the jays.
The thing about them is that there good players (Stroman, Pillar, Travis, Sanchez, Osuna) are all so young that a complete rebuild would be a waste of their talents. I think they need to punt next year and trade JD, Happ, and Estrada for sure and try to have a nudge nudge wink wink deal with them where they’ll resign when they’re FA’s like Chapman. They’re really not a bad team right now. They’re just a mediocre one that April killed. If they get some MLB ready talent for these guys, it could be a pretty quick and relatively painless retool.
“good players (Stroman, Pillar, Travis, Sanchez, Osuna) are all so young”
I don’t see any of these guys going to Cooperstown. The Jays should deal them and tank for several years.
I don’t see any of them going there either (osuna if his next 10 years are as good as his first?) but what does that matter? That is a good core to build around that is controllable.
The Jays would be insane to trade Osuna, Pillar, or Stroman. Travis likely won’t make it here longterm becuase of the weak knees – and on turf with the shifts, He needs to play on grass. Sanchez finger is a problem and I am told that they don’t really have a handle on it yet and it might be a longer-term issue. Plus Sanchez is a Boras cleint. I would offer him up to other clubs to see what is available.
Might have to move Sanchez into the bullpen because of that finger.
Best idea yet, if they can’t solve the finger issue, the jays moving Sanchez to the pen.
Yeah, I don’t mind that idea. Maybe not full time but maybe middle or long relief until he’s recovered fully. I like that. I think insulating him from big league play will only hurt him at this stage in his career.
I wouldn’t put Pillar in the same category as the other three. He’s a plus defender with at an best average bat. There are lots of Pillars out there.
Bautista also can’t be traded (10/5) without his permission, correct.? Also, Tulo has full no trade now that was triggered by his trade from Colorado.
No one wants Bautista anyways. See offseason.
No team would want Tulo or Martin unless the BJ’s pay about 70% of their salary, because either could be replaced for about that much money.
You’d be surprised who would take Bautita or Martin esecially if the Jyas help out moneywise. All it takes is a contender with a right handed power bat injury and Bautista is in play. One catcher injury on a team with no catching depth and Martin is in play. It could happen.
“Re-loading” for 2018 is simply code for a front office that doesn’t want to lose the gate receipts. It means another two decades of mediocrity. If this current aged group is done, which it was largely designed to be at this point (see AA’s playbook on 6 year competitive windows) then the only road back to the post season is to crater and deal for prospects. Accepting anything less is tacit acceptance that you care more about lining the coffers of Rogers than building a winning franchise.
Build your core, fill your system with high level talent, then add rock stars when you’re ready to contend. Repeat. Every other path is Vegas. The only short cut to expedite this plan is to deal elite players for as much prospect capital as possible. Do it.
Does any of this even really matter at all? In another year or two from now the Red Sox and Yankees are only going to return the American League East to beign a best you hope for is a third place finish division. Hate to say it but the Jays probably missed there window.
Yeah, you may be right, but what are you supposed to do, just roll over and die? You have to do something… there needs to be some kind of cap at some point, otherwise all the teams with mega bucks will just purchase a World Series seat each year. Where’s the sport in that?
Perhaps it is time for a salary cap
Either the Jays are under-performing across the board, or they just aren’t as good as they thought.. Deep thoughts – from an impartial observer. The piece is pretty even-handed; I’m sure that Toronto has put minimum prices on guys and will pull the trigger if the threshold is met.. Otherwise they look for improvement from all of the poor seasons.
I heard Rogers is offering jimmertee, one of the greatest baseball minds of our generation, a front office job with a lucrative multi million dollar contract. His uncanny ability to repeat ” this team is going nowhere without an ace and elite relievers” and ” either tear the team down or trade prospects for elite talent” are just a couple examples of the outside the box thinking that will propel the Jays to multiple world series titles in the future.
Finally someone who acknowledges the greatness and vailidty that stands before them…..I come from planet expert to share the greatness given me with the baseball fans of the world…
When can you start?
Cubs just got fleeced for Quintana
Maybe not depends if Quintana’s performance was based off of his rumored disapproval of being traded away out of Chicago. If that is true he got his wish and would not be surprised if his numbers suddenly improved.
the cardinals and jays will make a deal before the deadline
I honestly thought Smoak was a FA at the end of this season. I thought the contract extension was a renegotiation for 2016 and an extra year, 2017. I didn’t know they have him for two more years. Makes things interesting.
Is the “new Smoak” the real Smoak or not? The BJ’s could get a decent return for an all-star, even if he is a 1B, a low demand position. Or do they hold on to him and hope that they have caught low cost lightning in the bottle?
I’ll be honest, I still sit in the “Smoak is a bum and this is just Michael Saunders version 2.0” camp and I think they should deal him before he crashes back down to uselessness. But I am willing to admit that there is a good chance I may be wrong and that he is a different player.
Nevertheless, if some team came along with a great offer I would deal him in a second.