This is the latest edition in MLBTR’s Three Needs series. Click to read entries on the Phillies, Braves, Tigers, Reds, Pirates, Giants, Mets, Blue Jays, Athletics and White Sox.
The Mariners entered the 2017 campaign with the realistic goal of ending their major league-worst 15-year playoff drought, but they’re on the verge of adding another season to that ignominious streak. Thanks in part to a rash of injuries to key contributors in James Paxton, Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, Jarrod Dyson, Felix Hernandez, Drew Smyly and Hisashi Iwakuma, the Mariners have stumbled to a 75-80 mark with a week left in the season. While 2017 hasn’t gone according to plan, the club’s outlook heading into the offseason isn’t all that bleak. With a productive winter from general manager Jerry Dipoto, who’s never shy about making moves, and better health in 2018, Seattle should find itself in the thick of the American League playoff race a year from now.
1.) Bolster the rotation:
How bad and injury laden has the Mariners’ rotation been this year? Right-hander Mike Leake, whom they acquired from the Cardinals not even four weeks ago and has only thrown 25 1/3 innings since the trade, is already second among M’s starters in fWAR (1.2). Leake is one of 17 hurlers to log at least one start this year for the Mariners, whose rotation sits 20th in ERA and tied for 22nd in fWAR. A reliable innings eater, Leake should be a quality full-season piece for the Mariners in 2018, but the team doesn’t seem to have any rotation locks for next year aside from him, Paxton and Hernandez.
Given the structural damage in his shoulder, the Mariners are highly likely to cut ties with the once-terrific Iwakuma, who has a $10MM club option or a $1MM buyout for next season. They’ll also move on from Yovani Gallardo’s $13MM option in favor of a $2MM buyout and non-tender Smyly, a touted trade acquisition last offseason who didn’t pitch at all this year and will miss 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June.
The Mariners have several other in-house rotation candidates – including Erasmo Ramirez, Andrew Moore, Andrew Albers, Ariel Miranda and Marco Gonzales – but they’d be hard pressed to guarantee starting spots to any of them. Ramirez and Gonzales figure to at least be part of the Mariners’ bullpen next season, though, as both will be out of minor league options. Even if one of them opens 2018 as a starter, the club would be wise to add another established starter to its staff.
Seattle probably doesn’t have a deep enough farm system to make a run at a high-end, controllable arm (Michael Fulmer, for example), but it still wouldn’t be surprising to see the trade-happy Dipoto swing a deal for a starter. Alternatively, the Mariners could delve into free agency, where there will be no shortage of second-tier starters who shouldn’t have much trouble bettering the subpar production they’ve received from the replacement-level duo of Miranda and Gallardo. Of course, one would be remiss not to mention Japanese star Shohei Otani as a potential option for the Mariners. While international spending limitations in the new collective bargaining agreement will tamp down Otani’s earning power, he’s still expected to immigrate to the majors in the offseason.
It’s anyone’s guess where the right-handed ace/left-handed slugger might sign, but it could help the Mariners’ cause that they’ve had plenty of luck reeling in Japanese-born players in the past (Ichiro Suzuki, Kazuhiro Sasaki and Iwakuma, to name a few). They figure to join the rest of the league in trying for the 23-year-old Otani, who could immediately join Paxton as a second ace-caliber starter in Seattle. The chance to garner at-bats might heavily factor into where Otani goes, but the Mariners probably won’t be able to guarantee him anything more than occasional pinch-hitting duties next season with Nelson Cruz holding down the DH spot. Cruz isn’t under contract past 2018, though, so the club could perhaps offer Otani long-term ABs at DH if it does submit a proposal to him.
2.) Upgrade at first base:
The Mariners planned to platoon the left-handed Dan Vogelbach and the righty-swinging Danny Valencia this year, but they optioned the former to the minors before the season and have barely used him in the bigs. Valencia, meanwhile, has failed to transfer the success he had in Oakland over the previous two years to Seattle. The Mariners seemed to find a solid platoon partner for Valencia in August when they traded for another ex-Athletic, lefty Yonder Alonso, though he has come back to earth after looking like a breakout star early in 2017. Alonso has batted an uninspiring .243/.336/.365 as a Mariner and reverted to the groundball-hitting ways that have sapped him of power and production throughout his career. He and Valencia are scheduled to become free agents at season’s end, and neither look like strong bets to return to Seattle in 2018.
At this point, there’s little reason to expect the Mariners to go into another season counting on Vogelbach, so it seems probable they’ll enter the market searching for an established first baseman. Eric Hosmer and Carlos Santana will receive the lion’s share of attention around the majors over the winter, but Lucas Duda, ex-Mariner Logan Morrison and Mitch Moreland will offer more affordable choices in free agency. Should Dipoto look for a trade, the Braves’ Matt Adams and the Yankees’ Chase Headley could end up on his radar.
While most of those names aren’t particularly exciting, it shouldn’t be tough for the Mariners to find someone capable of outdoing the production they’ve gotten from first this year. The club’s first baggers have posted easily the worst fWAR in the majors (minus-1.4) and have hit a terrible .241/.308/.378.
3.) Decide on multiple outfield spots:
Aside from Haniger, who has more than held his own this year, the Mariners will head into the offseason lacking set starters in the outfield. Dyson has continued his effective speed-and-defense ways this season, his first in Seattle, but he’s set to hit free agency, while rookie Ben Gamel has tailed off badly in the second half after a highly productive, BABIP-fueled few months.
It’s possible the Mariners could stay the course next season, which would mean re-signing the 33-year-old Dyson and continuing to give Gamel and Guillermo Heredia significant playing time. It would be hard to argue against bringing back Dyson, one of the premier defensive center fielders and baserunners in the game who – unlike, say, Lorenzo Cain – shouldn’t exactly break the bank on his next contract.
As for the corner, while the M’s haven’t gotten great production from Gamel and Heredia this year, free agency won’t brim with overly appealing options (aside from J.D. Martinez and, if he opts out of his contract, Justin Upton). Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Gonzalez and Melky Cabrera are among several soon-to-be free agent outfielders who have had good careers but come with obvious flaws (including age and defensive shortcomings). A trade can’t be ruled out, then, but anyone the Mariners might acquire that way would likely have his fair share of warts. As such, whether to stick with the status quo in the outfield in 2018 or go outside the organization will be among Dipoto’s most intriguing offseason calls.
A need is to not have Dipoto not to make trades for tye sake of it. Most of them have been in the bad to awful range.
Dipoto=Me in fantasy baseball
lol that’s a good comparison
M’s definitely need an outfield bat to put alongside Haniger. Gamel looking like a nice 4th outfielder while heredia is playing himself into a depth piece. Would love to see jd sacrifice some defense to find a bopper for LF
Wow…. they really dont have much.
As an Astros fan, I do not fear this team. They are in win-now mode with some glaring weaknesses and understocked farm.
They may surprise, but the window is closing, if it was ever open at all.
As a long time Mariners fan, the Astros have little to worry about from the M’s. King Felix has been great over the years but he is no longer that #1 starter to be feared every 5th day. Paxton is a good young pitcher if he can stay healthy but is a #2 starter on a contending team. They don’t have a very good OF and 1st base has been an issue since before Richie Sexton. While Cano, Cruz and Seager had good seasons, they have little help. So I agree with you on the window, it hasn’t been open in 15 (16 now) years and I do not have faith in the front office to change that in time for 2018
Enough with the “trade for Mike Fulmer” scenarios. If you think the Tiger’s are trading their young cost controlled starter, you may as well have them package him with Candelario. If you don’t see them building around Fulmer, who do you see them building around?
The tigers are probably going to be bad for a long time and Fulmers value might not ever be higher.
Fulmers season ended with an injury. They’d be selling low this offseason
Intelligent comment , Goat! Again?
Dipoto believes in athletic defensive outfielders and hasn’t backed away from that. If he can find one with a bit more power than Gemal or Heredia and still keep the defense, I could see him doing that. He needs to add to his starters since neither Paxton nor Herdandez can counted to stay healthy. If they plan on carrying 12-13 pitchers like this year, they need to add a full time first baseman and not one who needs a platoon partner.
He prefers trades over free agents but the minors is pretty bare. Will be interesting to see how he upgrades without dipping big into the FA market.
Defensive metrics can “lie”. Haniger is a poor outfielder; he routinely botches plays and his throws are often off-target. He has range, but takes bad paths to balls. The M’s should definitely re-sign Dyson (as he is rated one of the top defensive OF’s in MLB, and the “eye test” bears that out), but should consider moving Haniger to 1B to accommodate a power-hitting outfielder through free agency. Our 4 OF’s won’t combine for 40 HR this year; in the power-laden AL West, that won’t work.
Regardless, if the M’s keep Haniger in the OF, they either must re-sign Dyson or sign another OF so that Heredia is the 4th OF, which is his best role. He makes great plays, but he often has trouble tracking the ball. When you watch him in the OF, he often twists and turns on any fly ball hit his way.
The M’s cupboard is BARE, as far as tradable commodities, save for Edwin Diaz, who could be dealt to get another starting pitcher. Nick Vincent could easily step into the closer’s role in 2018 (his shaky September notwithstanding), with Thyago Vieira waiting in the wings as the fireballer.
The rotation is key. The only “sure thing” in the rotation right now is Leake; he’s durable, but his early-season usage needs to be managed. If you look, he generally fades in the second half each season. The main reason he didn’t this season is that he got a short “break” during his awful stretch in St. Louis. That may have refreshed him a bit, and he’s been pitching pretty well ever since.
Paxton’s tendency to spend 6+ weeks/season on the DL each season cannot be ignored. Last night, Paxton even addressed the issue, saying he’s going to be tested to see how he can change that, but it’s a big issue that prevents him from being a true #1.
Felix needs to come to grips with the fact that he is NOT the same pitcher he was 3 years ago. The bursitis in his shoulder has killed his velocity; he can’t top 93-94 on a warm night anymore and usually sits 89-91. However, he still pitches like his changeup is 8-9 mph off of his fastball; it’s more like 2-3 now, and he ALWAYS throws it with 2 strikes. The batter knows it’s coming; the umpire knows it’s coming; the beer vendors know it’s coming. And everyone knows to stand there with the bat on the shoulder… except Felix. If he wants his changeup to be an effective pitch again, he needs to throttle back on it to more like 83-85 mph instead of 88-90 mph. He also needs to throw more higher in the zone, and use his curve more. Otherwise, he’ll be very hittable.
Erasmo Ramirez has made a nice showing in his second stint in Seattle, and probably has a leg up on the “depth chart” for a rotation spot next season. Miranda is a gopher-ball machine, and probably should be packaged in a trade to a pitching desperate team. Moore, Albers, and Gonzales are “desperation” depth; if Albers were 27 instead of 31, I’d rank him higher, but the M’s seriously need to open up the pocketbooks and sign both Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb to fill out the rotation.
Unfortunately, Dipoto (or TradeDHD, as I like to call him) is averse to free agent signings. Even with the whirlwind of transactions he generated last off-season, he only made TWO major league free agent signings: Marc Rzepczynski (which was a bad move, given that Jerry Blevins was available for the same $$$) and Casey Fien (a horrible signing at any price.) But as noted above, there’s nothing left to trade except for Diaz.
I would expect a very disappointing off-season for the M’s, since Dipoto has his own ideas on how to structure a team that don’t seem to mesh with most baseball minds.
Wrong on most of this like usual
I see your trolling once again again like usual.
Not at all. I base my opinions off facts unlike you. You come on here talking about stuff that is factually incorrect
Hope Zoinks isn’t Jimmertee again.
Never thought about moving Haniger to 1B which is a HUGE weakness, but just a FYI Haniger had a 5.6 Defensive UZR/150 rating in RF. He is no defensive liability out in the OF. Since we moved Martin to the Cubs, we definitely need to resign Dyson for CF again. Would love to land JD Martinez for for pop in the OF, but his defense isn’t the greatest so maybe JD would consider a 1B and keep Haniger in RF with his 5.6 UZR.
I thought Leake was a great move for 2018-19 as a serious innings eater, but we truly need one of the top SPs (I prefer Arrieta, but that will cost $22-25m/yr). After the leake trade, Seattle has $111m committed contracts in 2018 so far. Seattle would have room to land Arrieta or Davish in FA…and still someone like JD Martinez…but that will be tight with ARB player signings too to keep our payroll in the < $155m range.
And I think Dipoto should extend Cruz on a 2yr with a team option too.
As I said, statistics can lie. I honestly don’t care about Haniger’s UZR (it’s a faulty stat); if you actually watch him play, he’s a butcher out there… and I go to EVERY M’s home game. He’s the same as Josh Reddick; he makes lots of great plays, but he doesn’t track the ball well or pick it up properly all the time. So his defensive “prowess” is predicated on his ability to generate “Web Gems” (mostly coming from getting bad jumps on the ball) rather than actually fielding his position properly. Servais (if he’s still around) should flip Haniger and Gamel in the OF, so Haniger would be in LF and Gamel in RF. That would be a far better defensive alignment, though I still contend he’d be better at 1B.
I never thought of moving him to 1st, I actually kind of like that idea because I agree with what your saying about his outfield play. I would move Haniger to first, and if Upton opts out make him the top target along with Arieta and Otani. I’m not saying sign the three, but at least get one of them. Otani is probably the hardest of the three to sign.
Of course you like that idea. It makes no sense and isn’t reality
24TheKid is legit the WOAT. never once seen you contribute anything helpful or knowledgeable on these threads. Educate yourself guy.
Lmao
It’s more likely your eyes like more than advanced defensive metrics.
The whole point of advanced stats is to have a reliable measure of defense and not just peoples faulty opinions
Biggest need is a competent front office. DiPoto is an idiot although not as bad as JackZ was. Z did the same fielding OF thing when he got there and it didn’t work then either. New training staff couldn’t hurt either.
Miranda’s decline is probably due to a lot of innings. He really dropped off a cliff in the second half, and he might be able to be productive for longer after this season’s experience. Another pitch would help, though.
As an Orioles fan…I’m very happy Dipoto turned down the GM job here. He would have made the Orioles even worse, just like he did with the Angels and is doing with the Mariners.
Too bad. Robby is on the downside of his career now, no closer to post season than he was. His offensive drop off will become more precipitous in 2018. If the Yankees wouldn’t have been disrespectful offering him only 7 years and around $200 million.
So now the Mariners pay the price.
Who would you rather have–all things considered, Cano or Castro for the next few seasons?
Lol
The Yankees were right not to go as far as Seattle did, but Cano is a HOF-caliber player and I wouldn’t be running him down and celebrating his decline. Starlin Castro isn’t anywhere near the player Cano is, and never has been.
For the next few seasons? Definitely Cano. Castro has been league average this year. Cano, while in a “down year” is still the much better player
Seager for Julio Teheran straight up.
Deal Justin Seager for Teheran.
You mean Kyle?
Maybe, Bob?