The Indians’ ALDS loss to the Yankees may well go down as Carlos Santana’s last hurrah in Cleveland, an organization he has been a member of since 2008. The soon-to-be 32-year-old is slated to reach free agency next month and has the credentials to rake in one of the richest paydays of the offseason. It’s possible Santana’s next contract will come from the Tribe, of course, but the small-market club is only a year removed from handing fellow first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion a substantial deal. The Indians could opt for a cheaper free agent to replace Santana, then, or perhaps they’ll turn to someone already on their talent-rich roster for aid.
If Santana has played his last game as an Indian, the Octagon client’s void will be a difficult one for the team to fill. Not only is he a switch-hitter who has consistently provided above-average offensive production from both sides of the plate dating back to his 2010 debut, but Santana has also been quite durable. Since 2011, his first full season, Santana has appeared in no fewer than 143 games in any individual campaign. He played in 154 games this year, giving him six seasons with at least 150 appearances.
The 2017 season, in which he earned $12MM to close out a bargain contract (six years, $33MM-plus), didn’t begin in ideal fashion for Santana. His production was down through June, somewhat mirroring his team’s win-loss output. The Indians sat a mildly disappointing 42-36 through the season’s first three months before going on a 60-24 tear to wind up as the AL’s top seed.
Santana played a key role in the Tribe’s memorable second-half run, as he posted a wRC+ of 169 in July, 161 in August and 119 in September. For the year, he put up a 117 mark and slashed .259/.363/.455 with 23 home runs and a .196 ISO across 667 plate appearances. Santana continued to show off his signature plate discipline along way, walking in 13.2 percent of trips and striking out only 14.1 percent of the time. It was the second straight year in which Santana struck out in under 15 percent of PAs, making him one of the few hitters trending in the right direction in a league with skyrocketing K totals.
Including his most recent output, Santana has batted .249/.365/.445 with a .196 ISO, to go with a 15.2 percent strikeout rate against a 17 percent walk mark, in his 4,782-PA career. And while Santana’s not known for his glove work, the former catcher excelled at first this season, setting career highs in games (140), Defensive Runs Saved (10) and Ultimate Zone Rating (4.8). Between his work at the plate and in the field, Santana was worth 3.0 or more fWAR for the second straight year and the fourth time in his career. He has never registered a worse fWAR than 2.1 during a full season and has accrued 23.0 in Cleveland.
To this point, Santana’s numbers look rather similar to the production former teammate Nick Swisher logged before signing a four-year, $56MM contract with the Indians as a 32-year-old in January 2013. In 5,013 PAs from 2004-12, the switch-hitting Swisher racked up 25.0 fWAR and hit a Santana-like .256/.361/.467, adding a .211 ISO and solid walk and strikeout rates (13.3 percent and 21.1 percent, respectively). Of course, the Swisher experiment failed miserably in Cleveland, which is a reminder that even free agents with seemingly safe skillsets can rapidly decline.
Although the Swisher signing came almost a half-decade ago, something in the vicinity of his contract still looks like a fair benchmark for Santana’s next deal. While the Indians, Red Sox, Mariners and Angels are among a few potential fits, it’s worth noting that most teams were averse to spending big on first base/DH types a year ago. The leaguewide reluctance to splurge on those positions played a part in the Indians unexpectedly reeling in Encarnacion for a three-year, $65MM guarantee, and if it carries into this winter, it might enable them to re-up Santana at a reasonable rate. Further, it probably won’t help Santana’s cause that fellow first base options Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso, Lucas Duda and teammate Jay Bruce will join him in free agency after quality seasons of their own.
Hosmer and Santana are the class of the group and the only two who figure to garner qualifying offers, which could also drive down their appeal on the market. But if Santana rejects a $17.4MM qualifying offer from the Tribe and manages to land a guarantee of at least $50MM from another team, the Indians would be entitled to a compensatory pick after the first round because they’re a revenue-sharing recipient. So, while losing Santana would be a tough blow for Cleveland, at least there’s a chance the franchise would get a nice consolation prize in return.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
They could always trade for solarte
But would they give up the prospects necessary to trade for him?
Willi castro, shane bieber, and ryan merrit would be what the padres want for solarte.
Fits their payroll and is very good underrated hitter
But, yes, that’s the question
And is more of a fit at 2B where they have plenty of options which doesn’t help them with their 1B situation.
Solarte doesn’t hit enough to play first and doesn’t field well enough anywhere else. He’s a weird fit anywhere. If he could field at all, he’d be a great offensive asset at second or third, but he’s just not a good defender anywhere.
More of a fit for 2nd nahhhh
He is more of a fit for 3rd but can play all infield positions
Average fielder
3rd is his strongest base
Doesn’t hit enough? You might want to reevaluate your so called baseball skills if you don’t think solarte hits enough
Doesn’t hit enough for 1B is what he said and he’s right.
1st base is his worst fielding position smart guy. At 2nd and 3rd he’s nothing special but he’s not going to hurt you in the field like say, Matt Kemp.
Dude embodies the notion of being steady & solid as a rock…
Who who be his Free Agent competition in 2018 if he were to accept a QO to build up his stock for that class of FA?
Who would be? Sorry
It would be nice to see the O’s dump Trumbo and sign Santana as the DH. He would bring the OBP that the O’s need.
If he signs elsewhere, maybe Yandy Diaz can play 1B?
I know some want to see Bobby Bradley, but not me. Tribe has better options. Heck, Richie Schaffer could play 1B, and also 3B and both corner OF positions.
Chisenhall has played there, too.
1B isn’t the place for a Punch & Judy hitter with zero power.
Geez, will you ever stop with that line? You’re boring me.
Except all scouts say Diaz will develop power as he plays more.
He’ll be 26 at the start of next season and has had a career total of 29 dingers in 2645 at bats, so he won’t be turning the power on anytime soon. Corners aren’t where you want a guy with zero power.
Sure, because that’s a rule written in stone. Dumb.
Gap to gap hitters are just as good
I rather have a .300 hitter that can turn in doubles after doubles
Than a .240ish hitter with 20ish homeruns and a lot of Ks
Power comes with a price, contact hitters are more valuable imo
Sure if you get that .300 doubles hitter and not the .263 singles hitter with no position.
If the Mariners truly intend to make a run, he’d be an awful nice fit at first for them.
He’s a fit for a lot of teams wanting to contend
He really wouldn’t. He’s a poor defender, so a team would like to put him at DH. That excludes the NL clubs. AL clubs need to have a vacancy at DH.
Did you miss the part about 10 DRS and 4.8 UZR? He isn’t a gold glover but is still above average at first.
Did you bother reading the 5th paragraph above?
I used to bag on Santana for his defense, but he had an excellent season.
Did you not read the entire article? He just set career highs in virtually all of the defensive metrics at 1B. While he won’t win a gold glove, he is capable in the field.
Just my opinion. You’re entitled to yours.
But it’s not an opinion. You’re wrong. Statistics prove his defense has been much better this year, than in past years. That’s like someone saying “Aaron Judge has no power”, even though he led The AL in homeruns, and finished second behind Trout in slugging percentage.
My comment was a reply to Coast1
Still wrong, and not an opinion if it can be proved.
I really hope to see Santana come back, whether it’s a hometown discount or a tough market like the one that enabled them to get Encarnacion.
Cleveland should offer a QO. If he leaves we get a pick after the first round. If he stays he can bridge the gap to Bradley. Either way it’ll be fine
Don’t get a pick for QO anymore. Last year was the last time.
You didn’t read the article:
“But if Santana rejects a $17.4MM qualifying offer from the Tribe and manages to land a guarantee of at least $50MM from another team, the Indians would be entitled to a compensatory pick after the first round because they’re a revenue-sharing recipient. So, while losing Santana would be a tough blow for Cleveland, at least there’s a chance the franchise would get a nice consolation prize in return.”
I wish Kendrys Morales wasn’t taking up a spot for the next two years. Santana is much better and probably won’t crater like morales did
I could see him taking an early offer from a team after learning what the market bared for 1b last year he played with the biggest loser of it last year in Edwin.
That’s exactly what I’m hoping for, I believe he’ll take a hometown discount, of course it all depends on the influence of his agent.
I think it probably depends more on the $ he’s offered. Why would he possibly take a “home town” discount? (BTW, his actual home town is Santo Domingo, DR and he was originally signed by the Dodgers.) He’s had a good career in Cleveland, but he owes them nothing at all. He’s a professional. He gets paid for his services. He’ll have the same job wherever he goes. Why would he not take whatever the market will bear?
The problem becomes were does he go? A job with Cleveland is better than a job with a non- contender if the $ is close I believe that’s what’s meant by a hometown discount usually isn’t a huge enough difference to warrant the gamble in playing somewhere uncomfortable or non competitive. But I agree all things considered do what’s best for him and his family.
You’re right, nobody in the history of sports has ever taken a good comfortable deal over the uncertainty of hitting the open market. Didn’t realize we had his agent here to comment. Also didn’t realize somebody wouldn’t know what a hometown deal was without actually looking up his place of birth.
Tons of players consider the place were they played for a while home u don’t have to be drafted/signed either it’s a term that isn’t always meant as a literal translation. Nobody said he wouldn’t hit the open market.
The moment you say “Are you his agent?” or something along those lines your comment and every other comment you post in that thread becomes irrelevant. Santana will go to the open market, but that doesn’t necessarily mean his days in Cleveland are over.
Santana is unlikely to get a QO from the Indians. They can resign Brantley for 8 million , with bonuses for plate appearances. Santana would accept a QO in about five minutes.
I predict a 2 year 22 million contract for him and that might be too high. Teams have learned their lesson. You only offer a QO to someone who is definitely going to decline it. Hosmer would decline a QO.