Giancarlo Stanton was a star before 2017, but he elevated his profile even further with a huge campaign. As was just announced, the burly slugger is among the three finalists for the National League’s Most Valuable Player Award after a season in which he fell just shy of the 60 home run threshold.
On the whole, Stanton’s 2017 performance — a .281/.376/.631 slash and 156 wRC+ — wasn’t actually all that different from his prior high-water marks in 2012, 2014, and 2015 (by measure of wRC+). It’s promising that he was able to post a personal-low 23.6% strikeout rate while swatting 59 long balls and a .350 ISO. On the other hand, it also seems a bit unlikely that Stanton will sustain a monster 34.3% HR/FB rate and his lofty 16.9% infield fly rate is perhaps cause for some concern. What’s most important, though, is that he was able to demonstrate that an injury-plagued 2016 was mostly a blip.
Stanton, clearly, is among the game’s best hitters. Unlike some other top sluggers, he’s also a quality fielder, making him a legitimate organizational centerpiece. He also just marked his 28th birthday. That relative youth is particularly important given his checkered injury history. Stanton’s 159 games played in 2017 not only sets a personal high, but represents only the third season in which he has appeared in more than 123 contests. While the looming Stanton is a paragon of fitness, and does not have a specific health issue of particular concern, he’s also a very large man who could face some challenges as he ages.
If Stanton was a free agent, he’d unquestionably be the top player available. How much might he get? That’s debatable, but $295MM — the amount left on his contract — isn’t a terrible guess. Opt-outs are de rigueur these days, so Stanton’s post-2020 opportunity would be a reasonable addition, as would be no-trade protection.
Instead of a free-agent bidding war, though, we’ll be treated to one of the trade variety — assuming the Marlins follow through on their intentions to deal Stanton — that’ll hinge upon myriad questions. How much will the opt-out function as a deterrent? What about the availability of other quality power bats this year (J.D. Martinez) and next (Bryce Harper, et al.) in free agency? Is there surplus value in the contract? Can the Marlins get a team to give something significant up for the right to pay Stanton at roughly his market rate?
The answers to those queries will ultimately flow from the demand side. Stanton’s own preferences, of course, represent a critical — and largely unknown — factor. He’ll have to be involved given his veto power. Stanton is from the west coast, though the strength of the geographic pull isn’t entirely clear. All that’s really clear at this point is that he has a strong desire to avoid a rebuilding situation. Let’s take a look, then, at which rival organizations might show interest, and how strong that interest might be:
Best Matches (alphabetical order)
Cardinals
[Depth Chart – Payroll]
- Why it works: The Cards’ need for a big bat is probably overstated — after all, the team was right at league average in hitting last year — but the team clearly wants to add pop. More importantly, St. Louis has a broad base of talent at or near the MLB level, but perhaps lacks sufficient premium players on its roster. Swapping out some of that affordable depth for higher-quality players holds obvious appeal, and the Cardinals are even said to be willing to dangle quality young pitching talent. St. Louis also has excess young outfield talent to work with. That would unquestionably hold appeal to Miami, though indications are that the Cards would also be looking for some cost savings on Stanton’s contract if its top young arms are in play.
- Why it doesn’t: Stanton wouldn’t bust the Cardinals’ payroll, but he’d come close. The team has not gone north of $150MM to start a season yet, and already has $116MM allotted to salaries for 2018 entering the offseason. Perhaps that payroll line could go up, but it’s notable that the early chatter already involves considerations of financial tweaks that may not be to the Marlins’ liking. After all, the Fish are already swallowing hard to consider trading such a star player, and are motivated to do so primarily by payroll pressures.
- Outlook: The Cards will surely take a long look at Stanton, though they’ll no doubt also be looking into the Marlins’ two other talented outfielders, Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich. There are plenty of imaginable scenarios that make decent sense on paper between these organizations, but getting something done will require a lot of careful balancing.
Dodgers
[Depth Chart – Payroll]
- Why it works: If you just look at positional openings and payroll, this feels like an obvious fit. The Dodgers’ best outfielders last year — Chris Taylor and Cody Bellinger — are both infielders by training, and at least one is likely to return there for 2018. Yasiel Puig is one year away from free agency. While there are a variety of other quality options — including Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, a rehabbing Andrew Toles, and top prospect Alex Verdugo — the Dodgers could easily stand to plug in a superstar. Arguably, they should, after coming up one game shy of an elusive World Series title. Sure, the team has a lot committed to payroll already in 2018, but it can probably afford more, and the books are fairly clear in the future. If the team previously had interest in Ryan Braun, why not now go after a better and younger option in Stanton?
- Why it doesn’t: It hardly needs to be said, but these aren’t your older sibling’s pre-Friedman Dodgers. This is an organization that has focused, first and foremost, on bringing in and developing amateur talent (Puig, Bellinger, Corey Seager, etc.) while finding and polishing diamonds in the rough at the MLB level (Taylor, Justin Turner, etc.). The administration has paid in dollars and prospects in some circumstances, such as for international amateur talent, somewhat risky veteran starting pitching, veteran bench pieces, retention of stars (Turner, Kenley Jansen), and mid-season rental acquisitions. A splashy outside acquisition, though, would be new territory. There’s a reason, too, beyond the thrill of finding value in hard-to-find places. While the Dodgers can out-spend most organizations, that doesn’t mean they prefer to from a business perspective. Creating a sustainable, annual contender also means avoiding cycles of contractual inefficiencies, and the club needs to consider a future in which Clayton Kershaw and others will command massive new contracts to remain in place.
- Outlook: Los Angeles probably won’t over-extend itself unless it really feels Stanton is a critical piece of the puzzle. But if the Dodgers do think that plugging in an everyday star in the corner outfield is the way to go, they’d likely be the odds-on favorite to make a deal.
Red Sox
[Depth Chart – Payroll]
- Why it works: Boston president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is no stranger to swinging big deals and the Sox offense was out-homered by all but three teams last year. Cost isn’t much of an impediment, as the team has now re-set its luxury tax level and has a payroll capacity likely exceeded by only two other teams. While adding Stanton would likely mean going on to trade rangy center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. to create space, that’s essentially the scenario we posited in predicting that Boston would land top free agent slugger J.D. Martinez. Bradley, certainly, would also be quite an attractive trade piece that would allow the organization to address another need. (Three-team scenarios are especially fun to ponder.) In the long run, Stanton could find a soft landing at DH.
- Why it doesn’t: The Red Sox’ payroll isn’t limitless — it actually has never topped $200MM to open a season — and the club already has some risky long-term commitments. Plus, in the mid-term the pitching staff is arguably the greater concern, as several top arms will hit the open market over the coming years. Bradley is no slouch; he’s younger and cheaper than Stanton and handily outperformed him in a 5-WAR season in 2016. Perhaps re-arranging the deck chairs in this manner isn’t the most efficient way to improve in the near term and isn’t worth the long-term risk. The club might find it easier simply to acquire a shiny new first baseman, with Jose Abreu representing a particularly interesting trade candidate. And the Sox aren’t exactly overflowing with expendable, quality young players at or near the majors in the way that the Cardinals are; that doesn’t preclude a deal, but makes it a bit more difficult to see how the sides would line up if there’s competition in the market.
- Outlook: Getting Stanton would make for something of a classic Dombrowski move, but it’s not a perfect fit. Boston has other options for adding the power it desires, though it also must be considered one of the chief possibilities until we hear otherwise.
Other Possibilities (alphabetical order)
Astros
[Depth Chart – Payroll]
- Why it works: The Astros, you may have heard, are fresh off of a World Series victory. Staying at the top of the hill, though, means always looking for the next opportunity. The team has a fair bit of money committed to its 2017 payroll, but relatively little beyond it. And it’s easy to imagine freeing some added salary by non-tendering or trading players such as Evan Gattis and Mike Fiers. While Marwin Gonzalez was a revelation and Josh Reddick had a strong season in the first year of his contract, the corner outfield is a clear spot for the ’Stros to make strides. Putting Stanton’s bat in the middle of the lineup might also free the organization to dangle young players such as Derek Fisher and Kyle Tucker in a bid to add controllable, high-quality pitching. This is the sort of move that could represent an appropriate tradeoff given the fact that the team is obviously at or near a high point of MLB talent. And we do know there has been some past interest on Houston’s behalf.
- Why it doesn’t: Houston had the game’s best offense, by a wide margin, in 2017. So this isn’t really a target area, particularly with Fisher, Tucker, and others on the rise. It’s arguable that the Houston front office would be wiser to target shorter-term role players that fit in with the current roster core, rather than taking some risky gambit at adding another central piece. Pitching, though, can always be improved; the Astros could instead look to spend their money to pursue a quality starter, top-end closer, and/or bullpen depth. Plus, we don’t really know how high the payroll can go. And the future money would remove resources that might be used if the team tries to strike long-term deals with current stars such as George Springer, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, and Dallas Keuchel.
- Outlook: Once the confetti is swept up, the Astros will be left facing a tough but enviable question of how to build upon the success. Stanton will have to be a name that’s at least considered, but it’s anybody’s guess whether he’s seriously pursued.
Blue Jays
[Depth Chart – Payroll]
- Why it works: If you look past the current season, the Blue Jays have loads of free payroll. With Edwin Encarnacion gone and Jose Bautista on his way back to free agency, there’s a need for a slugging corner outfielder. The Jays did make a fairly significant offer to Encarnacion early last winter, so there’s some willingness to commit cash to a power bat. Adding Stanton would give the team a major lineup threat to pair with Josh Donaldson for 2018 and replace him if he departs via free agency next winter.
- Why it doesn’t: The Toronto balance sheet isn’t quite as favorable for 2018 as it is beyond. And GM Ross Atkins and president Mark Shapiro haven’t yet taken on or handed out a major, long-term deal since taking over the front office in 2016. Indeed, they allowed Encarnacion to depart and did not extend Bautista before he hit free agency (though he ultimately returned). The biggest barrier here, though, is probably Stanton’s no-trade rights. We have no way of knowing whether he’d be inclined to go to Toronto, but the tax implications for his contract could make it a much harder sell. (Analyses reach different conclusions, and this point is perhaps generally overstated, but it seems that highly compensated athletes in Canada should expect to pay at least as much or more than they would in any U.S. state. Estimates from the major Jays-Marlins trade of 2012 suggest a significant financial difference between playing in Canada and Florida.)
- Outlook: These organizations have a history of swapping major contracts, but Stanton will call the shots here. If he is truly willing to go north, and the Jays are open to considering that kind of contract, then they make as good a fit as any team.
Braves
[Depth Chart – Payroll]
- Why it works: Atlanta is looking to a future in which aging corner outfielders Nick Markakis and Matt Kemp are replaced by top youngster Ronald Acuna and … a player to be determined. Plugging Stanton into the mix would be an emphatic move to boost the club into contention and settle a long-term need. He and Acuna, surely, would be quite pleasing additions to a lineup rooted by Freddie Freeman. And the Braves are overflowing with the kind of pitching talent that the Marlins so desperately need. After opening a new park in 2017, perhaps the Braves could consider trying to keep the good times rolling by stunning the baseball world with a Stanton deal.
- Why it doesn’t: The Braves’ ownership group, Liberty Media, may or may not be willing to boost payroll, but it surely won’t operate the way a megarich individual owner would — in some cases, at least, throwing profits to the wind in the hunt for a title. That makes a Stanton-level commitment feel steep for this organization. And then there’s the front office uncertainty. At this point, it’s unclear who’ll be running the show and what kind of advisers will be around to dole out opinions. Pulling off a move of this magnitude in this particular winter may be asking too much. Beyond all that, patience is often a virtue in a rebuilding effort; the organization may be better served by waiting to see how its internal assets develop before committing to a major outside move. And the team would need to convince Stanton that it’s ready to contend.
- Outlook: If the Marlins decide to push for a Stanton deal early in the offseason, it’s tough to see the Braves as a plausible suitor. But perhaps if the process drags out, Atlanta could get involved.
Cubs
[Depth Chart – Payroll]
- Why it works: Chicago is a big-market team with a mandate to win, which gets you much of the way to understanding why this can’t be ruled out. The Cubs have room to spend and are far from settled in the outfield corners, where Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, and Ian Happ are all imperfect options. While the big need is pitching, Chicago could conceivably strike a deal for Stanton, then spin off a few other assets to land the rotation and pen help that’s lacking. Since Zobrist and Happ can play in the outfield or at second base, there are plenty of ways the pieces could be shuffled to make it all work.
- Why it doesn’t: To some extent, Heyward already represents the team’s big move in the outfield. That he hasn’t worked out as hoped represents a major problem for the organization and could preclude another big bet on a younger, high-end outfielder. There are only so many huge salaries a given team can carry, after all, and Chicago needs to keep some powder dry to accommodate pitching additions, allow for contingencies, and eventually, perhaps, enable the organization to retain still-cheap stars Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Willson Contreras. Plus, the Cubs have already moved most of the upper-level talent they are willing to trade, making it tough to structure a deal that would appeal to Miami.
- Outlook: This would be a more plausible scenario were it not for Heyward’s contract. As it stands, it’s hardly an impossibility, but doesn’t seem like the best match.
Giants
[Depth Chart – Payroll]
- Why it works: Lots of chatter has linked the Giants to Stanton, who is just the type of player they want to add. With a notable power outage in 2017, Stanton would provide an immediate upgrade. He’s capable of fielding the spacious outfield in AT&T Park, too. For an organization that is in need of some excitement, a big move for the game’s best-known slugger would surely do it. And unlike many big free agent moves, adding Stanton wouldn’t mean parting with draft picks and international money — a particular consideration given the Giants’ excellent amateur position next summer.
- Why it doesn’t: Frankly, it’s still not entirely clear how the San Francisco organization is going to proceed with a tricky offseason. The team’s future balance sheets are riddled with questionable commitments to older, often injury-plagued players. Adding a commitment of this magnitude just feels awfully dangerous and would almost certainly mean another year of luxury tax payments. Plus, the Giants would really prefer to add a new center fielder, while mostly relying upon Hunter Pence and Denard Span in the corners. That’s not going to dictate a decision on Stanton, but will factor into the calculus. The team has to be looking to improve in other areas, too, and making this kind of blockbuster might limit the more budget-friendly means of getting better. Then there’s the matter of the return; what pieces would work to make a match with Miami?
- Outlook: This may well be the move the Giants want to make. But it would take quite a leap of faith to do it, and it’s frankly difficult to imagine that taking place.
Mariners
[Depth Chart – Payroll]
- Why it works: The M’s have found themselves within six games of .500 (in either direction) in each of the past four seasons. Breaking out of that magnetic field of mediocrity could require a bold move. While GM Jerry Dipoto’s many trades have focused mostly on enhancing the team’s youth and control rather than on taking shots on veteran players, perhaps those efforts make it plausible to imagine the addition of another major salary. With Nelson Cruz entering his walk season and two more years left on Felix Hernandez’s contract, two of the club’s bigger payroll slots will be opening — and there’ll be a need to fill in for Cruz’s power production. The corner outfield would certainly be a nice spot to target for a power bat, as Seattle could utilize Mitch Haniger in center with Ben Gamel and Guillermo Heredia sharing left field and spelling the others.
- Why it doesn’t: In the near term, Seattle may not have much room to spend. The club opened last year with a club-record $154MM payroll and is already pushing that tally before filling out a 2018 roster. In the long run, the team owes Robinson Cano $24MM annually through 2023. It’s worth remembering, too, that #HelloCano hasn’t quite panned out as hoped; while he has mostly played at a high level, it wasn’t enough to put the M’s over the top. In any event, there’s a bigger hole at first base, where the club could hope to find a highly productive bat at a much lower cost. There’s an argument to be made that the team’s rotation should be targeted if there’s to be a bold investment. And the Mariners surely won’t be interested in parting with the controllable pitching that the Marlins will likely seek in a deal — to the extent it can even be said that they possess it in the first place.
- Outlook: The Mariners have been incredibly active on the trade market under Dipoto, but haven’t pursued prospects-for-stars deals of this type. While that could always change, a bold move for Stanton doesn’t feel like it fits the m.o. of this iteration of the organization’s leadership.
Nationals
[Depth Chart – Payroll]
- Why it works: As with the Yanks, there’s no hole that needs to be filled, but there are arguments for doing it anyway. In this case, upon landing Stanton, the Nats would presumably keep Adam Eaton in center field while utilizing Michael Taylor as a quality fourth outfielder (or, instead, as part of this trade or in another). While the DH angle isn’t available here, the addition of Stanton would function to give the team a ready replacement for Bryce Harper, who’s entering his final season of control. And the Nats don’t really have many glaring needs that are susceptible of being addressed anyway, leaving the team free this winter to act in an opportunistic way to make good on an ownership mandate to win a World Series.
- Why it doesn’t: While the Nats’ long-term commitments aren’t too great in total, they mostly reflect two major obligations to veteran starters (Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer). It could be too risky to add another premium salary. And if the team is going to do so, perhaps it first ought to exhaust every possibility of making a deal with Harper, who is a homegrown star and a younger player — even if he may prefer to seek a gobstopping deal on the open market. (Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rendon are also nearing their own free agencies; the latter, in particular, seems to be an extension candidate — and one that won’t be cheap.) Regardless of the long-term outlook, adding Stanton would mean blowing past the luxury tax line and all prior payroll highpoints for 2018. The Lerner family has deep enough pockets to do that, but it would be a big step for an organization that has already reached new spending heights in recent years. Top prospect Victor Robles is also a factor; while he could coexist with Stanton and Eaton in a hypothetical post-Harper outfield, his presence (and perhaps also that of fellow young outfielder Juan Soto) arguably reduces the need to take this kind of drastic action.
- Outlook: Again, you can see an avenue to a fit, but it’s far from a slam dunk. The fact that the Nats share a division with the Marlins may complicate things a bit, too, since the incoming ownership group will no doubt be sensitive to its fans watching Stanton launch bombs in Marlins Park in a different uniform.
Phillies
[Depth Chart – Payroll]
- Why it works: Don’t sleep on the Phillies, because they may be nearing an awakening. Let’s focus less on the solid second-half record than on the pieces this organization has compiled. With Rhys Hoskins showing himself to be a fearsome young slugger, J.P. Crawford reaching the majors, and Aaron Nola pitching like an ace, quite a lot of the team’s best young talent is now at or near the majors. The club had established itself as one of the league’s biggest spenders before reaching a new TV deal that locked in big money for decades to come, and the future payroll is virtually devoid of commitments. If GM Matt Klentak and President Andy MacPhail decide it’s time to ramp things up and land a superstar, the reasonably youthful Stanton is a nice target. And the team has quite a few solid young players that could be sent to Miami in return; like the Cardinals, the upper-level depth situation seems favorable to aiding the Fish in what will be a tough transition.
- Why it doesn’t: The Phillies have practiced their pitch on fans, but they’ll need it to convince Stanton that they are ready to win. After all, the club was significantly worse than the Marlins last year. But should they even bother? There’s a strong case to be made that the club would be better served spending its cash on pitching assets — or, perhaps, keeping it dry to pursue yet younger premium free agents next winter. Plus, corner outfielders Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr joined Odubel Herrera to make a productive trio last year, so it would be sensible for the team to give them a longer leash.
- Outlook: There’s just somewhat less urgency for the Phillies than for the other teams listed in this grouping. While the club would no doubt like to begin competing, and would see Stanton as a near and long-term asset, there are questions whether they’d extend themselves this far, this soon, for this player.
Rangers
[Depth Chart – Payroll]
- Why it works: Texas is no stranger to significant splashes and could have a fair bit of open payroll space to work with — for 2018 and into the future. While Nomar Mazara is still viewed as the answer at one corner outfield spot, the other is unsettled. The team’s most promising offensive possibilities — expensive veteran Shin-Soo Choo, Darvish deal headliner Willie Calhoun, and all-or-nothing slugger Joey Gallo — are all best written into the lineup at first base or DH. Adding Stanton might increase the team’s desire to move on from Choo, both to avoid a logjam and to clear some of his salary, but that’s probably not going to drive any decisions here.
- Why it doesn’t: As with the Cubs, the chief need for the Rangers is pitching. And on offense, power wasn’t exactly in short supply; in fact, the club posted the third-highest homer tally in the majors. Making this kind of financial commitment for a slugger — even one as well-rounded as Stanton — would be a debatable approach with the pitching staff looking so rough. As importantly, Texas would likely be served much better by adding a center fielder if the team is going to spend on a hitter. With payroll likely to move south, there’s not a lot of free space to fit this kind of contract.
- Outlook: This isn’t a terrible fit, despite some logistical impediments, but it would be tough to make this kind of acquisition while also sufficiently improving the team’s unappealing pitching staff.
Rockies
[Depth Chart – Payroll]
- Why it works: We all would love to see Stanton driving baseballs out toward the organization’s namesake mountains, but might the Rockies really consider it? He could replace the presence and former power of Carlos Gonzalez while helping the team prepare for the eventual loss of Charlie Blackmon. The Rox finally made it back to the postseason in 2017 but are hardly guaranteed a return. While the bullpen is a need, the rotation may mostly be set, so this represents a reasonable area in which to improve. Plus, Colorado’s best prospect talent is made up of pitchers and infielders, reducing concerns over blocking the youngsters and leaving the Rox with plenty of trade chips to entice the Marlins.
- Why it doesn’t: The Rockies have never struggled to produce bats, and ought to be able to find quality short-term candidates for a reasonable rate, so perhaps there’s no real cause to make a major acquisition in the outfield. Plus, the Rockies have a less problematic version of the Heyward difficulty in Ian Desmond’s contract. He will presumably shift to the outfield next year, for one. And he’s still owed $62MM over four years (including a 2022 option buyout) under his backloaded contract. That deal represents a bit of an impediment and a cautionary tale for an organization that is only just moving into a new payroll bracket. And supposing Miami does want to recoup some young pitching, is that really the type of asset the Rockies should be willing to part with?
- Outlook: If the Rockies are going to trade for a big hitter, Jose Abreu could make for a better fit.
Twins
[Depth Chart – Payroll]
- Why it works: The Twins raced back into contention last year and have a lot of talented younger players — as well as an unspoiled balance sheet after 2019. Eddie Rosario had a big season last year in left, but Max Kepler was not quite as exciting in right. And primary DH Robbie Grossman has been more solid than spectacular. Adding Stanton would transform the lineup, plugging in a star bat alongside Miguel Sano while reducing the roles of some of those players to the betterment of the entire lineup.
- Why it doesn’t: Again, the need for pitching suggests that’s where any big investment would and should go. For an organization that is trying to build something sustainable, this sort of splash would constitute a monumental — and quite likely unnecessary — level of risk. The Minnesota org has never opened a season with over $113MM on its books (way back in 2011), so Stanton’s average annual salary would gobble up something on the order of a quarter of the team’s peak Opening Day payroll. As the team’s homegrown stars reach and proceed through arbitration, they’ll increasingly be expensive, and the club will no doubt also find it necessary to spend on both the rotation and the bullpen.
- Outlook: In the end, it’s just hard to make it all work. If chief baseball officer Derek Falvey is to push the pedal to the floor, it’s much more likely to happen with the pitching staff.
Yankees
[Depth Chart – Payroll]
- Why it works: Some might say that the emergence of Aaron Judge precludes the need for Stanton; for others, perhaps recalling the addition of A-Rod to an infield already featuring Jeter, it’s all the more tantalizing to consider a lineup that features both otherworldly sluggers. Strictly speaking, New York doesn’t need to do this. But it can, especially if the team opens a roster spot and clears some payroll by shipping out Jacoby Ellsbury. Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner would still fit quite comfortably, allowing the organization to rotate players through the DH slot to keep everyone fresh. And it should not be forgotten that the Yankees have a lot of open future payroll space.
- Why it doesn’t: The organization is trying to dip under the luxury tax line to reset its tax rate. While it’s possible to do that while adding Stanton, there wouldn’t be much room for other additions (or, rather, for mid-season acquisitions). It’s plenty arguable that, if the organization is going to take on a major commitment, the better risk would be on a premium starter. Even if resources will go to the lineup, the infield could be upgraded in several ways and/or the team could plug a bat-only player into the DH slot for a much lower price. And then there’s the question whether the Yanks would rather wait to make a run at Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, or another big-time free agent next winter, once the luxury tax limbo has been accomplished.
- Outlook: GM Brian Cashman and owner Hal Steinbrenner have legitimately changed how things run in New York. As with the Dodgers, though, that only makes for a more fearsome market presence. It’s far from clear that a big move for Stanton is the right play, but it’s not out of the question.
Stanton to the cards. Makes too much sense. Write it in the books
How much salary do you see the Cardinals taking on?
3/4’s of it.
Who would they give up?
Jack Flaherty, Tyler O’Neill, Oscar Mercado, Zac Gallen,, Ryan Helsley
and the Marllins pay $45 million. $15 per the last three years if he doesn’t opt out, which I bet he does.
The Cardinals could also offer to take Prado’s contract for more money on the back end.
That trade sends Too Much To The Marlins. They are “shedding payroll”, so I’m guessing that they’d rather take a lighter haul and somebody else “Pay The Contract”……That’s what they said that they want….
Besides…………..
If The Marlins come anywhere near close to having to pay the $77 Mil that Stanton is owed….They will PROBABLY just KEEP him. You KNOW he’ll opt-out if he’s still there. It will delay the rebuild, but they’ll just move Gordon, Prado, and Ziegler this winter (that will pay for 2018 and 2019), Gordon’s departure saves $14 Mil towards the 2020 salary.
So……The Marlins, by moving Gordon (Dietrich can play 2nd), Prado (Anderson is the New Kid On The Hot Corner), and Ziegler………are just $12 Million away from paying all of Stanton’s salary before the opt-out.
I wonder what effect that has on the negotiating power of an interested Team…???????
Jeff, sorry to say , but you are just throwing stuff out to see if it sticks! As for your A. Friedman era, who have they developed? All those players were in the system, the new group has barely reached AA!
All of the 1st 3 seasons. If Stanton doesn’t opt out then $158-165 million.
Marlins GM – Stanton we have a trade proposal on the table to send you to the St. Louis Cardinals. Start getting your bags ready
Stanton – I think I have a No-Trade Clause in my contract and get deny that trade flat out.
Derek Jeter – You said you wanted to go to a competitive team.
Stanton – I wanted to go to a competitive team on the “West Coast.”
Marlins GM – We called the Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Angels, and A’s. It keeps going to answering machine. Maybe they don’t want you.
Stanton – They want me. Giants have no power in the lineup, Dodgers offense could not click when the time is right. I would be Mr Franchise for the A’s & Padres. But think about if I went to the Angels. Me, Pujols, and Trout in that lineup.
Derek Jeter – [I wish I had Steinbreinner’s money so I keep build a team of Super All-Stars]
Lmao
Jeff, with all respect, man, this article from its very premise is sooo way off the mark.
The main point you missed is that Stanton is not a free agent. So, to mix my sports analogies, instead of kicking for the goal posts., you seem to be aiming for the concession stand on the mezzanine above the 50 yard line.
A sensible article could address where Stanton, with his no-trade clause might accept a deal. Or it could focus on teams known to have approached the Marlins (if you happen to have a window into this) to bid on Stanton in a trade. When I saw you make a case for my beloved Phillies, I stopped reading (should have done it earlier). Stanton has said he wants to play for a winner and likes the idea of the West Coast. So, Sherlock, we look for clues from teams that fit that description.
This article, as cast, was a waste of time to write and to read. Sorry, just keeping it real.
Stanton to Bosox!! Don’t laugh…perfect fit…for 3 years. Stanton wants to win…and Sox are in Win now mode. In 3 years…Stanton opts out and goes West…where ever he wants. Miami simply wants to shed payroll…I think they would be tempted to trade to ANYONE who would take on Stantons full contract…and if they want a little pitching…give them Eduardo Rodriguez…4 YEARS of arbitration left…!!
They can’t trade ERod, he’s injured/recovering from surgery and would Never pass a physical. The best they could do is put him under the “player to be named later” category but even that is wishful thinking.
Stanton to BoSox!! Don’t laugh…I think The Fish would trade him to anyone who would take on the full contract. And if they want pitching…give them Eduardo Rodriguez…who has FOUR years of arbitration left. I realize Stanton wants to go West…but…he also wants to WIN…and Sox are in WIN NOW MODE…and after 3 years Stanton can opt out and go where ever he wants…PLUS, the Harper, Machado and Kershaw contracts will show him just how much he can then earn…:)
He belongs on the Dodgers.
3 way trade.
Marlins, Dodgers, Orioles.
Dodgers get Stanton and Brach
Marlins get Machado, Puig and salary relief.
Orioles get Alex Wood and Dee Gordon
The Marlins are looking to dump salary now, not take any on.
And neither Mattingly nor Puig is likely to be very happy about working together again.
I think he needs a 4th team that’ll trade for Machado and Puig, neither of whom fits the Marlins
So the Orioles give up Machado and Brach to get Gordon and Wood? Why would that make sense? They could get way more for Machado alone..
But then there’s be no fun for the fantasy baseball dropouts to kick around ridiculous trade scenarios.
Free agency is the only logical explanation
That is the dumbest trade scenario I’ve ever seen in my life!
Tough crowd…
Ha, it is a tough crowd that was a pretty bad scenario. Dont forget Machado is almost a free Agent. How would that benefit the Marlins? They essentially walk away with nothing.
it would make sense to trade him for more prospects only but why would the Is want that?
Marlins get a ton of salary relief, and a draft pick next year. Maybe 2 if Puig shines. Puig gets to be closer to Cuba, Manny’s nickname is Mr. Miami.
Marlins can market Manny for a year. And they get a draft pick, maybe 2 if Puig shines. And a ton of salary relief.
O’s don’t want specs…they wanna win now….but have no pitching and will lose Manny next year anyway. This way they get a great SP and an onbase machine leadoff hitter.
They get little salary relief. The Marlins stated goal is to reduce their 2018 payroll and start a rebuild. Your trade saves them around $10 million, not the $37 million they’d save if they traded Stanton and Gordon for prospects. Instead of prospects that can help their team you want them to get players who are good but won’t help them win anything and will eventually yield them prospects that’ll hit the Majors in 3-4 years.
If the Marlins trade Stanton and Gordon they’ll get young cheap controllable players.
Explain why the Orioles do this and how it would help them?
O’s won’t do this…but if they did it would be to improve the team. Move Schoop and his better bat and rocket arm to 3B, Gordon leading off, and Wood is the best SP on the staff. Offense would be more balanced…has too many all or nothing slugger types. Manny is leaving for FA so try to get more than a pick for him and improve today’s team at same time.
Brach AND Machado for Alex Wood and Dee Gordon lmfao
Then machado leaves after one year. Never gonna happen. Machado is another guy that wants to win. No way he goes to one of the worst franchises ever. They might have 2 world series wins but they had a fire sale both times. And the only a year after jose reyes mark buehrle signings they traded them for basically nothing in return. The Marlins and rays need to retract and relocate. There was a reason in the world to approve a new stadium when the first sell out ever in Miami was 2 WBC games.
Have you been paying attention? The Marlins want cheap, cost controlled players in return, not someone like Machado who is expensive and about to become a free agent. Be realistic!
Cardinals Phillies or Dodgers
Meant giants not dodgers lol. It’s only Thursday too
A N G E L S
If the Cards are willing to part with a good package, and take a lot of salary, I don’t think there is a better fit imo.
Piscotty, Weaver and Delvin Perez for Stanton?
Why would they be better off trading Weaver and taking a lot of salary rather than just paying JD Martinez?
because JD Martinez is 2 years older and is a terrible defender, Stanton is not.
Better to pay market rate for JD than market rate plus 5 years of an expected rotation piece for Stanton.
not when hes not as good and is going to become a defensive liability, if not one already.
That’s too much, no way the Cards give that much unless the Marlins eat $80+mil.
I’m thinking something like Piscotty and Flaherty and the Marlins eat $25 mil, effectively taking $50 mil off with Piscotty’s contract being paid by the marlins.
I think you’re about right Jimbo. Marlins need pitching bad. What about swap out Piscotty for Fowler and Cards add Gomber to Flaherty. Gives them a potential #2 & #4/5 starters who are pretty much ready for bigs and they get Fowler to sell some tickets at 1/5 the cost of Stanton. He might not be the best fit in StL as it stands. 66mil vs 295 mil. Seems plausible.
So Flaherty, Gomber, and Fowler for Stanton? Add O’Neill and you got a deal.
Hey now. We’re close to deal here don’t get crazy. Yes on the first 3. Idk about much more. That accomplishes what fish should want and need.
I like it. Make that deal.
Fowler has too big a contract and full no-trade protection, which makes that proposal *highly* unlikely.
Agreed he has no trade. But it becomes *likelier *when he was told at exit meeting that Pham is our CF’er in 2018. MO said he was guaranteed 82.5 mil, not a position. And in regards to the contract being to big, compared to what? 295 million. It’s for only 4 yrs and getting 12 yrs of cost controlled pitching.
Good info regarding Pham and the Cards’ CF plans. Could be Fowler’s more inclined to go and his contract is much smaller than Stanton’s, but still too big in my opinion for MIA to acquire if they’re serious about reducing payroll.
I think a Pham and 2 low level pitching prospects that will be ready in 3-4 yrs.
Marlins will not get a good package of prospects without eating a bunch of Stantons contract!
That’s not going to be enough to get Stanton. Not even close.
Your right ba2929, it will probably be less if the Cards 3/4 of his salary. Marlins want from under it in the worst way possible.
The Cardinals can’t trade Weaver, he’s already slotted into the rotation. They need to add another starter anyway.
That’s way too much for Stanton given the opt out and the bad contract.
I dont see any scenario involving Stanton opting out of that massive contract. Can someone help me out please?
Really? You can’t see Stanton opting out? He’d be 31 years old, opting out of $208/7yrs, a deal that takes him to his 38th birthday, and pays him $29.7M per year. Between now and then we are going to see salaries reach into the high $30’s at least. Harper is a lock for probably $37M-$40M next year, and then Trout after 2020 will likely get more, say $42M. At 31 Stanton won’t get that, but with continued production (doesn’t have to be 59 home runs) he’ll likely see $35M-$36M, and for 6-7 years which would be more money than he’s getting now.
Unless he drastically declines (or simply doesn’t play due to never-ending injuries) I can’t see Stanton NOT opting out…unless he simply works out an extension with whatever team he’s traded to to forego it.
at 31 no one would commit that much money to him
Then why is this conversation and every other one concerning JD Martinez talking about his ability to command a contract approaching $200 Million and he isn’t half the defender and close but not equal in offense to Stanton and Martinez is I believe 30 and will be 31 during the 2018 season.
An elite ballplayer like Stanton ( of course that could change due to injury) at 31 shouldn’t scare anybody away from another massive contract, especially those teams that feel they are one player away from winning it all.
JD Martinez will not get 200 million…i believe even the article on mlb trade rumors said that…he is just asking that much because that is how you bargain a deal…just because he’s asking that doesn’t mean he gets it
So you’re telling me that IF Stanton stays healthy, and IF Stanton puts up the same numbers as he did last year, for the next 3 years, that Stanton will walk away from a guaranteed $208 million in order to enter free agency? Think of Harper, Trout, Kershaw, Machado and Sale, among petential others. Each team that signs these guys will probably not be able to take on another giant contract. Not as much compitition to land stanton
If Stanton reproduces 2017 in any of the next 3 years he will absolutely opt out. He will get $35 MM AAV over 7 years at that point which is a lot more than his current deal would pay him.
Harper or Machado contracts could change the market.
But Harper is what 26? Machado around that as well. Their contracts will not change the market for a 31 year old which is what Stanton would be at that time
Harper and Machado contracts will shift values for everyone….. not that everyone will get that kind of money…. but every other salary will jump up a bit…. suddenly they will all become a much better value
I’m still waiting for the part where someone can explain to me why Harper should get that much money. He’s not THAT good. He’s not the the top player in baseball.
Mack83…I agree with you lol exactly why is Harper getting all this money…he’s not worth that and any team who gives him that much money is stupid
“Harper and Machado contracts will shift values for everyone””
No they won’t. The players screwed themselves by accepting an effective salary cap. In 2000 A-Rod and Manny Ramirez lifted everyone else’s salary exactly because there was no payroll ceiling for any big market team.
Maybe the players will grow a pair and be willing to strike next time to get some of what they have lost back, but I’m doubtful.
You can count the number of players that have put up a 27.7 WAR or more by age 24 on your fingers and toes. He ranks 13th since WWII. Only 4 are not in the HOF. Trout, Pujols, Arod, and Andruw Jones. Elite company. He is that good.
Trout is the top player in baseball and when his contract is up after the 2020 season, he is going to get more than $40 MM AAV on his next contract at age 29.
If he hits 50 HR in any of the next 3 seasons or puts up another 6.0+ WAR him opting out will almost be a certainty. If he is traded to one of the launching pad ballparks like Fenway, Yankee Stadium, Citizens Bank Ballpark, or anyplace like that 60 HR seasons may be a great possibility. Machado and Harper will set the market next offseason with contracts approaching $400 million. At that point, a $35 million AAV for 7 seasons for a 31-year-old Stanton will seem reasonable.
Is it just me or is the first sentence of the article a bit strange?
More than half of those teams don’t have a chance of getting him!
Of course most of those teams do not have a chance to get him. Very few teams have the ability (prospects & money) and desire to legitimately make a run at him. He’s going to end up in St. Louis or Boston, with the Phillies and Giants as darkhorses. Nothing else really makes sense.
I could see Rockies. Marlins take Ian Desmonds dead deal, that would be there way of “eating part of Stantons contract”. Send the Marlins 3 STRONG prospects and its a done deal.
Skip……Especially since Stanton has a Full No-Trade Clause….. that he will definitely use if he doesn’t like the team that makes the offer.
He said he prefers to play on a coast….. but more importantly he wants to WIN.
At least half of the teams listed are not going to be winning anything in the next few years.
Free agent predection contest coming soon?
there is no trade market for stanton unless marlins are going to pay all of is contract minus 8-12 a year. Would not want any part of this trade. He has not p;ayed 1 full year until 2017 for 4 years. Won’t in 2018 after he is traded. Any team that trades for him will be in for a bad contract for a long time if he doesn’t opt out.
See Phillies
(To Larry48)
ROFL……I guess we’ll see…..
(…what the hell are you smoking?…)
Then there is no market. The Marlins are not going to pay that much of his deal. To even consider that, they’d have to get even more value for him.
Although, I agree with your reasoning of why. a team will want that much ate.
It would be nice to see him play half his games at Coors Field.
The Dodgers (A) Can replace their right fielder Puig who despite his early hype and local fans and is a free agent after next season; (B) Can pay THE ENTIRETY of the contract WITH NO CONTRIBUTION from the Marlins without a problem, (C) WILL GET A DISCOUNT ON A TRADE PROPOSAL with the idea the Dodgers take on the entire salary and, with the salary consideration in mind, the team won’t have to even dip into their top minor league prospects to get the deal done, and (D) WILL HAVE A HOMETOWN, SAN FERNANDO VALLEY NATIVE, coming home..
It’s easy math, Giants fans. Go light a torch for your 3 championships they will be a blip on the radar.
delete this
Puig is a free agent after 2019. Dodgers are going to keep him because he is the best defensive outfielder in baseball when you factor in the arm.
Is he good, sure. Hes not KK, Betts, Heyward or Buxton
Does DRS calculate times where the runner on 2nd doesn’t score on a hit? If it doesn’t puig would be getting overlooked because thats where he is most valuable
You assume that those players don’t have great arms also… plus DRS and UZR do calculate in throwing arms, yes.
Maybe not the best OF, but he’s certainly top tier. KK plays premier OF position, but as far as RF go he’s among the best. Makes great plays and strikes the fear of god in baserunners thinking of taking an extra base.
A. Hes still good
B. So can lots of teams
C. So can lots of teams
D. Meaningless
Flags fly forever.. Didn’t your team just gack up 2 WS games they had leads in?
A B and D of what you said are true. But the Dodgers haven’t shown interest. They are trying to get their payroll down. They can afford Stanton but not if they want to keep Darvish as well. I agree if the Dodgers want him, they will get him, I just don’t think they will trade for him.
Dodgers fan, your second place finish in the World Series will be a blip on the radar as well. What’s it like to watch the other team celebrate on your home field? …just wondering
Are u serious? Torturing the guy? lol. Too funny.
My guess is he is traded to cardinals next week or they give up on him and go different direction. Too big of a move for cards to wait on and pass up other moves that they won’t be able to do with Stanton but could if they move on from him. If it drags on I see them getting out. Seems like best offer will come from cards, will the marlins jump on it and will he agree to come to St. Louis? We’ll see.
no way it happens that fast…not even before the winter meetings
Mo has stated he wants to make a move or two before the deadline to set the 40-man which is Nov. 20th. I could actually see this moving quickly.
I didn’t say Mo wouldn’t make moves…it’s just that im sure the marlins can wait to see when JD M. signs before moving him…the cardinals need some bullpen pieces also…but I might be wrong
Martinez won’t sign until Stanton is moved. That clarifies Martinez’s bidders.
i could see that.
Last I read the Birds want to make moves a quick as possible because of the 40 man roster deadline. If a trade is going to happen, it will be before the deadline.
Big name Boras clients typically don’t sign until January or February, so I doubt the Marlins wait.
Look for the move to happen weekend after gm meetings. Needs to be done before November 20.
I agree completely. If Stanton takes to long to approve the deal, I bet the Marlins fall in love with the Cardinals offer and offer another outfielder.
Yankees should make the movie instead of going after machado or harper.
Please explain that reasoning….
Only reasoning I could see would be they’d only be taking on partial salary as opposed to signing one of those two to a ridiculous contract that they’re on the hook for 100% as well as the draft pick implications.
My point was explain why he’d be better then signing one i.e.-Harper. With the new draft pick compensation rules those aren’t as high…
Judge, Sanchez, and Didi, Severino and Bird are heading for big paydays. If the Yankees intend to keep this core together for awhile their payroll is going to skyrocket again.
That plus guys like andujar and Florian could perhaps make their desire to land Machado and Harper less than a sure thing. I’m not knocking either, they are great players. I’m not convinced it’s a no brainer.
Him going to the Yankees would make my hair fall out. A lineup with Stanton, Judge, and Sanchez is just filthy.
Additional factors making the LAD the most likely:
He is from LA. The LAD have 4 players on 1yr contracts. A-Gon 22MM, Kazmir 17.6 MM, McCarthy 11.5 MM & Ryu 7.8. Some combo of those over priced players could be included instead of Miami eating $$$, along with a couple of good prospects which LA has in abundance. This would “dress up” the Miami roster and make it look like a better deal rather than having dead $$ on the books. If a couple of vets get off to good starts Miami could flip them for additional prospects.
That’s just not going to happen. The Marlins want young talent, they aren’t going to take on old vets on 1 year deals.
It’s better than writing a check for big $$$ if they want better prospects back.
No it’s definitely not better. If the Marlins eat money it will be in after the opt out clause and will be dispersed over years. The marlins need to get their payroll down to 90 million, taking on those contracts does the opposite of what they need
Also not better because rebuilding teams value roster spots and playing time for prospects and lottery picks over expensive “dress up” acquisitions.
Dodgers make the most sense and have the pieces (prospects) that the Marlins would expect in return. And since he’s a west coast guy, it would only help the cause.
I don’t see the Astros making a move at all – they have the best offense out there today and will need those dollars to re-sign some of their own in the upcoming years.
Yanks don’t make sense, either – unless you want to watch HR derby between Stanton and Judge every night. Yanks would be better served focusing their attention on Machado and Harper. Machado as a 3B solution for the next decade and Harper as a strong LH bat in the lineup to compliment a strong RH lineup (especially if they land Machado).
I see it between the cardinals and dodgers…only reason cardinals win is because dodgers and marlins can’t work a deal or the dodgers aren’t that interested
Stanton lands in LA with the Dodgers. Jackie Bradley is traded to the White Sox and continues forgetting how to hit three months of the season. Bradley is Clay Buchholz all over again (endless talk of “upside”). Jose Abreu & JD Martinez are both playing for the Red Sox next season.
Are you saying JBJ will be traded for Abreu?
Hahahahaha sure sounds like it!
Abreu can certainly be had by Boston, but not for underachiever JBJ as the key return piece.
Wow JBJ the underachiever is a 3 to 5 WAR player he is not an underachiever he is what he is a very good defensive center fielder that is going to hit around .250 with 20 to 25 homers and he is controlled for 3 more years. I hope Boston doesn’t trade him and yes if they decide to trade JBJ he would be the main piece of a Abreau trade.
One thing that we often see on these kinds of articles with trades failure to consider the team’s needs that aren’t ours. I’m guilty sometimes too, but it is pretty obvious sometimes.
That said, how does JBJ make any sense for the White Sox, who are likely 2-3 years away from being contenders? It would likely serve them better to gamble on a buy low veteran and see if he becomes a trade chip
My guess is they would then flip JBJ for prospects. There are a lot of teams that want a JBJ. I would bet the straight up return in prospects would be higher for JBJ then Abreau.
Hahn’s appetite/urgency to deal Abreu is far less now with his success slashing payroll big time besides stockpiling prospects. He’ll be greedy on return or keep legit middle of order bat b/c with Detroit and now KC possibly AL doormats in own division they may accidentally win quite a few more games in 2018 (let alone 2019 final year of Abreu contract).
Stanton goes wherever “Stanton” wants to go. It’s really irrelevant what Miami wants. He holds all the cards.
lol marlins dont have to trade him…they can make him apart of the rebuild whether he wants to or not….the marlins have a say…they want something in return…they own stanton….will they factor in Stantons decision, yes, of course, but “Stanton goes wherever “Stanton” wants to go”…I don’t think so
They can’t rebuild with him and angering someone who carries 33% of your annual budget and who you owe nearly 1/3 of a Billion dollars too is very stupid. Kinda like your response.
lol tough guy…well the marlins have a say because they would like some talent for him…so say if the giants want to pay all his salary but have nothing the marlins want they can say no…which would limit Stanton’s decision to certain teams…can stanton say no..yes he can…but it definitely is a two party decision
Now lets focus on your anger issues…do you act tough only on the computer? do you you have mommy issues? lets talk it out
And what’s Stanton going to do if the Marlins decide to hold onto him? Sulk? Tank it? Neither would help his trade/opt out value.
1. Collect $77 Million over 3 years
2. Continue to rake and pad his own stats. He Loves That Park
3. Lobby for other teams to come after him
4. Buy some time until several teams currently rebuilding start to gain some traction (Braves, Phillies, Brewers.
5. Wait and see How Expensive Harper & Machado become…..then appreciate that his deal looks like a Bargain!
6. Hope that the Dodgers Come After Him NEXT Winter, once A-Gon, Kazmir, McCarthy, Puig, Ryu, Grandal, and Forsythe are “OFF THE BOOKS”………(yup….That’s $84 million clearing the books…….Wow!…)
Need More? It’s really NOT all that hopeless. The Marlins are FAR MORE Motivated than Stanton is ……
best post i’ve read so far
To the ones saying Stanton is not durable and has been hurt. Yes he’s been hurt. But two of those seasons he got drilled in the face and drilled in the wrist. Freak accidents that happen.
He’s got an injury prone face. Didn’t drink enough milk.
Exxxccccellllent 🙂
Phillies!
Cards will get something done with the Marlins whether it is Stanton, Yelich or Ozuna. There is too much of a fit for respective needs. I think the Cards would prefer to get Yelich but the Marlins would prefer to deal Stanton.
Eventual outcome will depend on combination of prospects and money. My guess is that the Cards will get Yelich since they have the best prospects to offer and the Dodgers or Red Sox will get Stanton since they have the most dollars to offer. Marlins lose two great players but will get pictching, replacement outfielders and big salary relief in return.
Yelich would be a yawner of a move, doesn’t move the needle at all. Cards need an impact bat.
Cards have plenty of money and a plethora of prospects to offer. Yelich would be nice addition but not the impact that Stanton would have.
It comes down to if the Marlins will throw in enough cash to offset that contract a bit for Cards liking AND if Stanton is willing to go to St. Louis. The second part seems to be more of the unknown. St. Louis would worship him as a Cardinal but living in St. Louis isn’t quite like the West Coast.
If the Cardinals could include Piscotty in the deal they would be shedding $7.5 million in salary for 5 years. This might be enough of a financial offset to make STantons contract more palatable. The marlins would also end up with an outfielder at a reasonable salary. win win.
How dare you say that? Having grown up in the STL, I can say that it’s almost the same as LA.
If you swap out the beaches, beauty and botox for dank river, overweight, and diabetes and squint a little bit, it’s the same thing.
I would think the Marlins would be interested in just getting rid of the entirety of Stanton’s contract if they can, which is why the Giants come up in rumors a lot. They do not have the prospects to match any other team with interest, but, if they were willing to take the whole contract, the Marlins should be interested in doing that to really help meet their fiscal desires. Then, they could use their other pieces (Gordon, Yelich, Ozuna, etc.) to acquire the youth needed to bolster their farm.
I don’t want to put words in Stanton’s mouth but I would think it would be a no to the Giants…he wants to win
Spot On Cards81……….
Stanton = “Full No-Trade Clause”
Doubt he wants to go there……
“Not the pre-Friedman Dodgers” then proceeds to list 4 of 5 players that were brought in by Ned…
Stanton to the Astros for Tucker, Martes, and Gattis.
Tucker and Martes would just be a start. Gattis makes no sense at all in this trade
Either of those players alone would be a huge overpay
Stanton to the Cards
Marlins get – Weaver or Flaherty, Harrison Bader, Delvin Perez, and would like Carson Kelly but might be too much.
Kelly would be just as blocked in Florida as he is in St. Louis. The Marlins already have a very good cost controlled catcher in JT Realmuto. Even without him that is an overpay unless the Marlins pick up a significant part of the contract which they don’t seem to want to do.
I know the cardinals main target is Stanton but is there a chance they might try to get both Stanton and Yelich since they are said to be possibly looking to add 1-2 power bats and have interest in both could they pull off a trade for both.
Stanton is not the main target. Cardinals have made it very clear they would like Ozuna or Yelich more.
As an Angels fan and with a wealthy unpredictable owner; this is my fantasy:
Trade for Stanton and assume all his contract and take Prado…offer a minor prospect or two.
Release Pujols
Trade Calhoun or move Stanton to 1B.
Rake in peripheral income in jersey sales multiple sold out games.
Crazy but I can dream.
You got King Angel for 14 more years pal.. Thx for paying for the decline years. Signed a Cards fan
Calhoun to first would make more sense than Stanton to first. Pujols isn’t going to get released. The Angels won’t want Prodo. The Angels make more sense than half the teams listed on here. Trade Cron, Jones, Heaney, Thaiss and Middleton for Stanton and take on his entire contract.
We wouldn’t need to trade much of anything to take on the entire contract plus relieving Miami of Prados contract.
Tha’t’s a LOT of potentially dead money to take on.
Gordon is a decent gamble. (whom Angels could really use).
Stanton is a risky but potentially rewarding gamble.
Prado is a gamble you’re very likely to lose. (but he does play 1b.)
Positionwise, that makes sense (they play positions where Angels need warm bodies–and they all have good upsides). Money and risk wise, they make no sense at all.
I keep saying this about Dee Gordon, he couldn’t hit with the Dodgers. Other than the first half of his last season with them. Angels stadium and Dodgers stadium are both more pitchers parks than hitters. Nunez would make more sense, especially considering that Miami will most likely want Jones or Thais for Gordon. Why give up either of them, for a guy who won’t be able to hit at home for you? The Angels already have a guy like that in Cron. Nunez would not cost the Angels any prospects or a draft pick. As for that is to much to give up for Stanton? If you want the Marlins to even consider the trade and go to Stanton and ask if he will waive his no trade clause, you give up that much.
Rather have Ozuna than Stanton crew… even with only 2 more years control. Braves aren’t really a match for any, but if you are gonna put them on this list they’d be better off going Ozuna and paying him whatever he wants to extend. Would end up being cheaper, younger, and better.
I predict the Cardinals go a totally different route and sign Pete Kozma for 10 years paying him free unlimited loaded nachos and free soda refills. Cotton Candy bonus if he finishes within the top 200 in MVP voting.
Lozano breaking the Top 200. Talk about a contract incentive St. Louis would never have to pay!!
*Kozma… poor guy can’t even get any respect from my auto-correct.
in the end, stanton stays in miami. he trumped miami with their own no trade clause card.
Not sure why everyone brings up the living in the Midwest thing as a negative. I don’t think it’s a prerequisite that players must live in the state they play in. The Cardinals play 81 games in Stl. He still has plenty of time to live in Cali in the off season and have Spring Training in FL.
Some players just feel more comfortable…
He really needs to go to the AL so that later in his career he can DH. Honestly, the Blue Jays make a ton of sense with him as they have a ton of money, can offer DH later, play in the AL east with small ball parks and they need someone like him to replace Bautista and Encarnacion who have left in successive years. They had the worse runs scored in the AL so they need him maybe more than any other team.
Why in the story did they question the Blue Jays budget?
The Jays led the AL in attendance, had enormous viewership on Rogers Sportsnet, have crazy amounts of people who follow the team and take over stadiums in Seattle and Detroit and Minnesota, have the richest owners in the sport in Rogers Communcations, who own the cell phone and cable rights for an entire country. Yeah, they can afford Stanton. Also, after 2018 they have little long term money committed.
I like Stanton and he’ll win the MVP unanimously or at least should. As a cubs fan they really only need to focus on 2 starters a closer and 2 relievers. Somehow find a lead off guy.
Davis
Cobb
Andrew Cashner
Addison Reed
That’s a serious amount of holes to fill…
Oh don’t forget about LF…
Votto?
Giants arguably need him more than any other team, but they’re between a rock and a hard place. Too much payroll committed to older, injury-plagued, underperforming players. Always skittish about going over the luxury tax threshold, it would be shocking if they took the Stanton plunge. Maybe the thought of Span and Pence in the corners next year will scare them into it, who knows?
I thought the Giants had gone over the luxury tax threshold two years in a row…???
Where did I read that?
Look at these “superstars” and the WS rings the have won (Cabrera 1 (14 years ago), Trout 0, Kershaw 0, Stanton 0, and so on.) Mega-deals taking up to half or more of a team’s payroll doesn’t make sense. It takes more than one player to win a championship and I don’t believe you can field a winning team when one player is dominating the payroll. As a team owner or GM – pass.
This is dumb. Trout and Stanton play on bad teams with bad owners. Kershaw was a win away from not being on this list. Altuve was on this list until a week ago.
Besides Kershaw maybe,who else of those on his list is close?
The premise is dumb. Heyward taking up nearly 15% of the Cubs payroll last year didn’t prevent them from fielding a great team and winning the WS
You consider Arte Moreno a bad owner???? Wowsers, as a Marlins fan, I’d kill for an owner that throws money around like its confetti.
Altuve is not a superstar on a mega contract. His point was that a lot of these smaller payroll teams limit themselves with these astronomical contracts they give. And while I partially agree you still need great players to win championships. And Kershaw and Miggy have had post season success that just came up short of the championship since they signed their big deals
Let’s be real, Kershaw making $30M a year is not why the Dodgers didn’t win the World Series. And of course on the other end, Houston, the winner of the WS, traded for Verlander’s contract.
How many of those players have “Reached the Playoffs” and “Reach the ALCS/NLCS championship game” & Lastly, “how many of those players actually made it to the World Series”
Dynasties are hard to come by – Giants, Cardinals, Yankees, Red Sox did a decent job winning more than 1 title.
Is Stanton better than every player on the Phillies roster? Probably, but having just extricated themselves from contract quicksand they should play it safe and avoid that kind of salary and prospect commitment for the foreseeable future. Besides, if Stanton with Yelich, Realmuto and Ozuna (all of whom are better than current Phillies position players) couldn’t win, I don’t understand how he markedly moves this Phillies team closer to a championship.
Judge and Stanton are pretty much identical players.. Plus, you failed to mention Clint Frazier being MLB ready and Florial advancing through the minors (Florial being the main reason they were willing to part with Rutherford)..
The Yankees are not going to be in on Stanton.. I doubt they will be on Harper as well.. If Torres comes up and lives up to the hype I doubt they will chase Machado..
If they go after anyone in Free agency or the trade market the next couple of years it will be for a TOR pitcher or a solid above average bench bat seeing as how they are stacked everywhere else.. Think David Cone and Strawberry back in the mid 90’s..
Harper is a proven commodity,where those players are “suspect”.
Not that the Marlins would be interested in him but including Fowler in the deal would bring actual production back to the Marlins instead of just eating money. Dont think the Cardinals would mind getting rid of that contract
Cardinals surely wouldn’t mind getting rid of that contract, but Fowler *would* mind going to MIA and like Stanton has a full no-trade clause.
Harper is worth 40M a year….. but Stanton? WAY overpaid. Going to have to eat TONS of salary just to get a middling prospect. What? Stanton has a career 144 wRC+? Harper 141?
The difference is no one wants to give up the prospects just to get a market value contract. You can get Harper without giving up prospects, or someone like Yelich, without giving up tons of money.
Not to mention he can opt out of his contract soon so any team may be giving up prospects as well as taking on salary for a 2 year rental. I dont see many teams going in on this and I hope any team that does gets something back should he opt out of his contract.
It’s a 3-Year Rental if he opts-out……..
It’s After the 2020 season…..
Three market years of Stanton for the middling prospects an acquiring team would probably give up for Stanton and his entire contract could actually be a very good deal for that team if Stanton opted out after 2020.
I’m starting to get the feeling he stays put. No trade clause, 295 million, opt out… maybe Jeter and co are able to find takers for Prado, Gordon, Ozuna and Ziegler which would get our payroll down to the 100 mil mark and then maybe trade Stanton at the 2018 deadline… A contending team would be more likely to deal for him them as long as his value remains high. Risky for Miami but maybe it will work out that way… we’ll see.
I would keep Stanton and try to reduce payroll by some of the other means that you mentioned.
To unload most or all of the contract, MIA will have to settle for too little talent.
To get the talent necessary to the Marlins more competitive in 2018, 2019, or even 2020 without Stanton, MIA would have to pay way too many millions for a deal to make obvious financial sense.
I think that’s exactly what’s likely to happen. Stanton is just too risky for all involved–simultaneously too valuable and too expensive.. Too valuable for MIA to give away.
Too expensive (and risky, playing time wise) for any team to give up much for–assuming that they could even fit him in their budget. Prado has a fixed value (very low, but it’s at least predictable). Yelich has pretty much fixed value (very high). No one has a good fix on Stanton’s value to make the trade easily workable.
This is just a very good piece, even if I don’t agree with some of the judgements. Nice research, well presented.
I think the cards would part with the right prospects. But the money will b a sticking point and does Stanton want to go to stl
The market has been slow to react to the absence of PEDs. Teams are still paying contracts that show they expect solid production from players older than 32. Stanton’s contract is not moveable unless someone expects a huge guy like that to stay healthy for another few years.
Stanton is Only 28!!!
He’s in Fabulous shape (He’s a Beast)
He has a new stance that dramatically improved his pitch recognition and plate coverage.
“Healthy for another few years”………He could be healthy for another 7-8 years easily.
If JD Martinez gets anywhere near 7/200……Stanton’s 10/295 doesn’t look all that bad. At least Stanton is a Pretty Good RF with a Cannon for an Arm.
The best predictor of future injuries is past injuries. Stanton might be in fabulous shape but he has a history of hamstring, knee, and hand injuries that suggest he might not age well.
At 28, the body can pretty much charge through anything but then when it passes the age of 30, weird aches and pains start to pop up and the imbalances created by past injuries start to create new problems.
Look at all of the great baseball players who were known for athleticism but fell off the earth after they hit the 30-32 year old time window. The player that Stanton most reminds me of, Juan Gonzalez, serves as the warning sign.
I like the comparison to Gonzalez but you left out one essential ingredient: steroids.
I’d like to to see Stanton to the dodgers.
Dodgers get 3/4 Stanton’s salary
Marlins get Puig, urias, and Brandon mcarthys or kazmirs deal.
Dodgers lineup would be savage
Taylor
Seager
Stanton
Turner
Bellinger
Forsythe
Verdugo
Barnes
None of those players really benefit the Marlins though.
Puig has a year left, Urias would be lucky if he threw 200 innings over the next 2 seasons, and Kazmir is just a sunk cost.
idk if McCarthy is worth dumping, he could actually help the Dodgers
Is it really such a well-kept secret outside of LA how much Mattingly and Puig clashed, or do people just like proposing Puig to Miami regardless of what had been nearly insurmountable friction between the two?
It’s gonna take alot more than that. Maybe Taylor, Puig, Urias and mid level prospects plus take on 75% of Stantons salary. Reconstruct it so he won’t opt out in 2020. Taylor isn’t really that good. He’s basically a judy hitter.
No way it takes Urias plus to get Stanton. Just because he got hurt doesn’t mean he’s not top prospect material. If they haven’t moved him yet he won’t go.
I think a GM/Owner would be insane to take on a contract like Stanton’s. They couldn’t insure the contract, that alone would cost too much. Folks, baseball economics are about to change dramatically as the economy changes. Look at EPSN getting rid of all their high-priced talent becuase subscription levels are tumbling through the floor.
It is forecast that the cable revenue based on subscriptions and advertising revenues will begin to tumble as well, probably take a year or two to playout but then huge payouts like that Dodgers got will be not existent. The USA financials that currently support the advertising and cable rights revenues are shakey at best.
The GM that takes on Stantons contract will be taking on a financial anchor that will likely end his[the GM’s] career.
I’d love to see Stanton a Giant. Brian Sabean has specifically said they are targeting center, 3rd and bullpen. They seen to be going with Span in left and Pence in center alright unless one of the kids shows something, mainly Chris Shaw. Still, I have to wonder if the Giants taking all the salary and offer MLB ready pitchers Chris Stratton, Ty Blach and Shaw, they could get a deal done.
Pence in center? Ouch.
Typo. Meant right.
Ahhh, that’s better.
I say this again. He will be a Giant.
Why would he want to go to such a bad team with little hope of improving? He’s already played on one of those.
Exactly
With zero chance of winning. Outside of Crawford Posey and belt they suck. Outside of Bumgardner and Matt Moore. Their rotation is awful. Cueto has his moments but otherwise he’s not very good.
I don’t think the Cardinals really are a fit.
As you touched on, the money. The Cardinals had a lower payroll in 2017 than the Royals. The owner is an out of towner who prefers to pocket money than spend it..
The Cardinals starting pitching is either untested or questionable. Right now the rotation is Cmart, Wacha, Weaver, Waino, and Flaherty with Gant and Reyes likely to get starts as well.
CMart is the one guy you can count on, but the other 4?
They’ll almost certainly have to pursue a FA starter and they likely can’t do that if they take on Stanton’s contract. Not if they also improve the bullpen.
Cardinals offered Heyward a 200 million dollar contract…more than the cubs…he just chose the cubs and rightfully so since he won a WS…so please stop with the cardinals don’t spend money…they have had one of the highest payrolls in baseball for many years…they have been smart and are ready to strike…they offered Price tons of money but unfortunately the Red Sox said they would beat anyone by 30 million and they did for price…the cardinals just got a billion dollar tv deal…they are ready to spend and my honest opinion is they will make the best offer and it will really come down to Stanton agreeing to coming to St. Louis
Wainwright is coming off te books after next year and they only have something along the line of 80 million committed until 2020…plus plenty of young talent…they need a cornerstone player and Stanton is it…they can afford Stanton and bullpen help
Cardinals get an extra $70 million in TV revenue a year starting in 2018. They totally have the money.
Braves need to trade for Stanton or get another power outfield bat to go with Acuna and Inciarte
All postion players are cheap execpt freeman when kemp and markakis deals run out
Kemp Markakis Allard Ian Anderson Muller straight up for Stanton
Kemp Markakis lil over 40 mill. Dodgers and padres may still be payin a lil bit on kemp
Marlins might be able to move Markakis in trade to save some money jus DFA kemp if he cant be moved to A.L.
Kemp Markakis may be at 47 mill combined could be wrong depends if pads and dodgers still payin 2 or 3 mill per year on kemp or done paid it
3 team trade between Cards, Angels and Marlins…
Cards get Stanton from Marlins and CJ Cron from Angels.
Angels get Dee Gordon from Marlins and Diaz and Piscotty from Cards…
Marlins get Hudson, Bader and a low lever A class pitcher and The Marlins assume 25% of Stanton’s salary. Angels send 3 low A prospects to Marlins.
Angels have upton trout calhhoun locked up there not taking on piscottys money the Angels
I could have seen this happening if Upton had gone elsewhere but not now. That outfield is set in stone.
As I have wrote elsewhere, economics of baseball are about to change dramatically. Right now MLB is flush with cash. But we can see by the ESPN subscription numbers that is about to change. I beleive that ESPN is an indicator of what is to come, Paid subscriptions are tumbling through the floor. ESPN will be laying off another 100 ppl soon. The economic forecast of baseball cable and advertising revenues and sports in general are at a peak and about to tumble hard. That means alot that cable money, MLB.com money and advertising money will dry up. Once that happens most of the huge deals will go away. The only question is when this will happen not if it will happen; it is coming.
Some teams know this are are planning for it, some teams don’t have a clue. It depends on the ownership and their mandate to the baseball people.
So projecting these big contracts to continue is not accurate. It cannot happen as many are writing. it may take a few years for this situation to manifest in contracts, but it will. Good teams will confine their contracts to as short a term as they can get, not because they are cheap, because they realize that financial structural changes in the game itself are coming and not for the better.
Stanton to BoSox!! Don’t laugh…I think The Fish would trade him to anyone who would take on the full contract. And if they want pitching…give them Eduardo Rodriguez…who has FOUR years of arbitration left. I realize Stanton wants to go West…but…he also wants to WIN…and Sox are in WIN NOW MODE…and after 3 years Stanton can opt out and go where ever he wants…PLUS, the Harper, Machado and Kershaw contracts will show him just how much he can then earn…:)
Stanton to BoSox!! Don’t laugh…I think The Fish would trade him to anyone who would take on the full contract. And if they want pitching…give them Eduardo Rodriguez…who has FOUR years of arbitration left. I realize Stanton wants to go West…but…he also wants to WIN…and Sox are in WIN NOW MODE…and after 3 years Stanton can opt out and go where ever he wants…PLUS, the Harper, Machado and Kershaw contracts will show him just how much he can then earn…:)
Huh! Somebody didn’t like my comment yesterday.
Short form: if the Phillies are potential candidates, so are the Padres, who are also well along in their rebuild and are in Southern California where Stanton wants to be. The Padres have a farm loaded with lots of pitching, they have a low payroll due to prospects making minimum, and their 2015 payroll was $117 million, so they could afford the contract. You can never tell what A.J. Preller will do.
If Stanton is serious about moving on from MIA and about only playing on the West Coast, trade discussions extend beyond STL and the otthers toward SD.
Stanton would still be taking a pretty big leap of faith going to a market without an established history of big-ticket spending.
I would love to see Stanton as a Card….but we would still need another bat to protect him. I’d rather see 2 plus bats and a solid starter……just my 2 cents….
Doubtful that Giancarlo would be willing to be traded to the Braves; however, the Braves could offer a deal like: Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Kolby Allard, Touki Toussaint, Joey Wentz for Giancarlo Stanton and Martin Prado. Prado is just short of a push for Matt Kemp value-wise and Markakis can use the one year left on his contract until one of their ten top outfield prospects is ready. Three top pitching prospects should replace any value Stanton has above his contract (Owed $265/10 Years).