In this year’s edition of his annual Hot Stove survey (an always-excellent read), ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick surveyed 40 front office execs and scouts from around the league on nine offseason issues as this week’s GM Meetings kick off. Among the topics discussed, at length, are the possibility of a Giancarlo Stanton trade (and his likeliest destination), where Japanese star Shohei Ohtani will land, how much J.D. Martinez can command in free agency, and whether Yu Darvish’s poor World Series showing hampered his free-agent stock. Crasnick also polled the 40 baseball ops/scouting minds on multiple groups of free agents and trade candidates, asking which will provide the most value and which are likeliest to be dealt.
If you follow the offseason even loosely, you’ll want to be sure to read through the entire column, which is packed with quotes and insight from general managers, scouts and other front-office executives on the players in question and their potential landing spots. Some abbreviated highlights…
- Three quarters of the respondents indicated that they expect Stanton to be traded this offseason, with nearly a third listing the Cardinals as the likeliest landing spot. The Giants were the second-most popular spot, though one scout tells Crasnick he has a difficult time envisioning that match, calling the Giants a “bottom-five farm system.” One respondent who felt Stanton would stay in Miami suggests to Crasnick that the Marlins may be underestimating just how much of the contract they’ll need to pay down.
- The Yankees and Dodgers split the vote on the surveyed group’s likeliest destinations for Ohtani, with the Rangers not far behind. Several other clubs received a few votes, and four of the 40 respondents suggested that they believed Ohtani would remain with the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2018. There’s still some work to be done with the league, the players’ union and Nippon Professional Baseball before the posting process can begin in earnest. The agreement between MLB and NPB on the current iteration of the posting system expired this offseason.
- The Red Sox were the overwhelming favorite when it came to the question of Martinez’s next team, though expectations for his contract varied in size. One GM pegged Martinez at around six years and $140MM, Crasnick notes. Some execs felt he’d fall closer to Justin Upton’s $106MM guarantee.
- Only three of the 40 respondents thought that Darvish’s pair of World Series meltdowns would have a substantial impact on his offseason earning capacity. Crasnick’s piece has plenty of insightful quotes on Darvish — more than any other player — from the scouts that were polled. An AL scout tells Crasnick that 15 years ago, the World Series might’ve hurt Darvish, but in a largely sabermetric environment, his late struggles are a “void blip in the radar.”
- Crasnick also asked respondents which of the Royals’ big three free agents (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain) would provide the best value on his next deal, which of Carlos Gomez or Carlos Gonzalez had a better chance of reestablishing himself as a star, and which major 2018-19 free agent among Andrew McCutchen, Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado is likeliest to be traded this winter. I found it somewhat of a surprise to see Hosmer as the decisive favorite in that Royals question, though many scouts praised his glovework despite poor reviews from defensive metrics. McCutchen, less surprisingly, was deemed likeliest of his trio to go, while Gonzalez topped Gomez handily in their own respective face-off.
Cardinals going to have a new look with cf mccutchen 3b donaldson rf stanton and wade davis as the closer. That should all cost around $150.00 or so.
wow, only $150.00 I can buy that for less than a pair of Jordans
And then you woke up.
Exactly!!
People are forgetting about Stanton’s full no trade clause. I don’t thing he would accept a trade to St. Louis. LA is more likely and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yankees get involved.
Nobody is forgetting about his no-trade clause. It’s mentioned in every single article. He wants to avoid a rebuilding situation, with a preference for the west coast. With that, he’ll likely waive it.
If Stanton’s biggest criteria is winning then why not the Cards. As for the yankees, my guess is they sit this one out in order to make a run at Harper next season.
I don’t know. I think the Cardinals would have to prove they are committed to adding players around Stanton. Not just him. With the team on the decline and the Brewers on the rise I don’t see how you could say “why not the Cardinals”? Even the Cubs took a step back and where better than the Cardinals record wise. The betting on the Cardinals just because they are the Cardinals is going to run out at some point.
The cardinals are not just looking to add Stanton, they are looking to add Darvish or Arrietta and either Holland or Davis as well. Those moves would make them a 92 to 95 win team if Reyes comes back ok
Didn’t you hear? They’re getting Donaldson, McCutchen, and Wade Davis, apparently.
Cards fans are starting to come across like Giants fans…
The Cardinals’ roster last year with Stanton leapfrogs at least the Pirates. I think that is plausible. The Cardinals path to getting better is pretty clear, get a bat. By all reporting, it seems they are serious about trading some subset of players to acquire Stanton. They will probably overpay to get it done. Frankly, the Cardinals could comfortably take on the entire contract . No other team has the farm and the wallet to make this deal happen. That being said, I hope the trade doesn’t happen because the Marlins are going to want a MLB ready pitcher and at least one outfielder on the current 25 man roster. I would rather bid for Donaldson or Machado next year.
Except that might actually happen with the Cardinals. The Giants and Padres are going to be 2 of the 5 worst teams in baseball next year. It makes no sense for the Giants to chase Stanton. They have so much payroll attached to aging veterans and a bottom 5 farm system.
The Cards will almost have to add a bat, bullpen, and maybe even a 3rd baseman. They won’t go without and the fan base is too good to keep accepting losing as being “ Okay”.
Maybe in PlayStation.
I would like to live in your world
Darvish back to the Rangers
I don’t see that happening unless the Rangers trade Choo. Even with his poor showing at the World Series, Darvish will command $20M/yr deal, and the Rangers are trying to stay below luxury tax limit. Can’t do that without Choo’s contract becomes someone else’s problem.
Pass. I think Darvish’s best days are behind him.
Agreed.
Agreed x2
Stanton to the Cardinals make to much sense at this point. And JD Martinez to Boston. The Giants will be involved with both of them but I don’t see either of them coming to San Francisco.
I think Lorenzo Cain is the best fit for the giants, a speedy defender
I don’t think they give up the draft picks to do it. They know they need to build the farm and filling CF with an aging speedster that declined the QO is not the way.
Here is a trade that both St. Louis and Miami would accept
Cardinals get:
Stanton
Ozuna
Gordon
Tazawa
Wei Yen Chen
Miami Gets:
Fowler
Wacha
Carson Kelly
Dakota Hudson
Jack Flaherty
Magneuris Sierra
Scott Hurst
Marlins dump terrible contracts like Stanton, Chen, and Taz while adding loads of prospects. Cardinals upgrade 3 starting positions and add bullpen help. Also they upgrade the rotation with Wei Yen Chen.
Drop Wacha and add Alex Reyes and Tyler O’Neill.
Or subtract Ozuna.
Of course, as you wait the price will get cheaper as Miami begins to confront reality on those contracts.
Eventually the Giants could seriously get into the picture.
Reyes not getting traded!
Getting fair market value for him is impossible at this point.
Interesting but not gonna happen. To much budget for the Cards and dumping a lot of prospects is never good
The Cards do have several great young arms at or near the big leagues…. they will have to bust out soon.
Marlins do not want fowler and his contract, cards do not want Chen and he’s not an upgrade to their rotation. Cards don’t want Gordon unless Wong is in package to net Stanton and or ozuna
No way Miami makes that deal. Obviously they want to cut payroll. Taking on Fowler’s remaining contract ($66 million) doesn’t make sense and would only drop their 2018 payroll by about $40 million.
I think Miami would want more prospects. At the same time would the Cardinals empty their farm system? Based on your trade and assuming the Cardinals won’t part with A. Reyes, I would do:
Cardinals get:
G. Stanton
M. Ozuna
W. Chen
D. Gordon
J. Tazawa
Miami gets:
M. Wacha
C. Kelly (STL #2)
J. Flaherty (STL #3)
T. O’Neill (STL #4)
M. Sierra (STL #6)
D. Hudson (STL #8)
E. Sosa (STL #12)
Cash Considerations
Cards would be at around $167 million
Marlins $66 million
Won’t happen! Kelly not getting traded !
Tyler O’Neil is the only one in the group that wouldn’t get traded
The Cardinals will trade any asset they can get fair value on at this point. Making a trade involving 30+ years of control would never happen though
Why not move Kelly? Molina is signed for a few more years.
That’s actually very interesting, and it still gives the Cardinals pieces to make more trades…Mo said he wants a young rotation going forward, and they could trade some of the rotation arms above for younger guys…I think I somewhat like this trade proposal more than just going after Stanton alone…Junichi Tazawa…Wei-Yin Chen, Kotlen Wong now if the Cards acquire Gordon, still also have outfield jam of Grichuk/Piscotty/Pham/Fowler/Jose Martinez/Harrison bader/, With the additions of Ozuna/Stanton gves Cards 7 outfielders like they started with lol, so they definitely could make some trades for some young aces who haven’t hit arbitration yet, and deal with their contracts later…It’s just if the Cardinals want to do so…I’m not sure, Mo has never done a blockbuster like this mentioned, and Miami has publicly stated they don’t want to give up Ozuna, but if it could net them the names above, they may be willing to do a huge trade like this…Cards are also interested now apparently in Jake Arrietta and Yu Darvish, but first want to gauge the trade markets…Have to replace Lynn at least…
Ad gyroko or Wong
That trade gives the Cardinals the 7th starting outfielder they needed.
Too much young talent to be giving to one team, they have to be a little more frugal.
that’s like 3 separate deals in one the Stanton contract is enough salery by itself. Also no way Fowler gives up no trade clause to go to miami
Why would Fowler waive his NTC to head to Miami?
I bet the Phillies and the orioles were the ones to think that Otani would stay with the Ham Fighters
They didn’t “think” that.
That was their pathetic answer to avoid the question: “Why do you have zero interest in the most talented Japanese player in history?””
Go back and look at quotes about Jackie Robinson etc. moving forward to Al Campanis on Nightline talking about blacks “lacking the necessities ” (as well as buoyancy ) to manage in MLB.
Same thing, only Japanese players proved themselves in MLB over two decades ago, so this isn’t Jackie, it’s Al Campanis.
Command + F “Phillies””
Four mentions, zero for Shohei Ohtani.
Crasnick lives in Philadelphia. Jerry like everyone in the industry knows how John Middleton feels about Japanese players.
However, the largest number of mentions for the Phillies is Jake Arrieta.
Things that make you go “Hmmmmmm…..”
Machado to the Redsox for E-Rod, Chavis, and Travis.
Sox sign then trade for Greinke to take E-Rods spot.
Sox send Groome to Arizona for Greinke and his contract.
because money grows on trees
None of that will happen or even be thought about
The earth will be proven flat before any of that nonsense transpires.
Isn’t that more pertinent to the Celtics than the Red Sox?
Theo will land Ohtani
I doubt it. From Ohtani’s press conference and other reports he sounds like he’s not interested in a big market or the spotlight. He’d prefer to go to a team that he’s part of their success, not a team that’s already won without him. When you’re 35 you want to go to a winner but when you’re 23 you want to build a winner.
He wants to go somewhere he can learn and become the best he can be. I doubt he’ll go to a team that’s perpetually rebuilding like Miami or Tampa, but most other teams would be on his list.
I was surprised that he was really humble about not demanding to pitch and hit. We already know that competing against the best is more important than money to him. I’m sure he has a desire to be well paid but that isn’t important now. If he meets with teams I’m guessing he’ll go with the team he feels most comfortable with.
So I think he’ll skip the top teams and the teams that are perpetually bad. Any of the other 20-24 teams could get him.
Sounds like Seattle would be a good fit then
LOL
I think if the Cards trade for Stanton they will want Ziegler thrown in as well. They need a closer and would prefer not to spend 15mil a year for one. Get Ziegler and re-sign Nicasio.
but zigler isn’t that good….
I think the Cards get Ziegler with or without Stanton. As a Phillies fan I would love to see Stanton in red pinstripes, but St Louis just makes way too much sense for the two sides not to get a deal done.
Giants farm is always under rated. Last 8 years 3 WS and bottom 5 farm. They also win with home grown players very interesting how everyone views Giants farm as bottom five. Pablo and Matt Duffy never rated in top 100 either was Panik or Crawford. Posey and Belt got all the hype.
Comment if you guys like dislike. Just cause your teams haven’t been winning and have top 5 farm system you dislike. Giants FO knows how to run a team and win WS with bottom 5 farm system. Dodgers get top 5 farm and biggest payroll can’t win a WS in last 30 years.
Awful take. They have a bad rated farm for a reason. The main reason they won was because of a lot of guys stepping up and over performing, not homegrown talent that came out of nowhere
they had a great team and they were the best team for awhile but how did that mean that this farm system is good
they only have a few good players they find they usually trade their faram for a world series time to rebuild
Miami is not just going to throw in Ziegler. They could not care less what the Cardinals need or want. If he Cards want Ziegler they need to trade for him with talent. That may make the Stanton deal more complicated then it will be.
They might “throw him in” if it means eating less of Stanton’s salary, but somebody still probably needs to go the other way.
Ziegler is 38 AND overpaid!
how dose he have positive value? he was a backloaded free agent deal that underperformed.
Giants should go after Yelich, then sign Cain, or go big and sign JD, then go hard after two dominant relievers.
Yelich will cost good prospects the Giants don’t have. Don’t get me wrong I would love Yelich or Ozuna but we can’t to cheap and to controllable for the Giants to trade for. Stanton is the only option. Maybe trade Panik for some decent prospects then trade those guys along with Giants prospects to Miami for Stanton and dee Gordon. Those the only players Giants can get from Miami.
Sorry the Giants window is painted shut!!!
Yelich will cost more to acquire than Stanton by a huge amount.
no way they have the pieces for yelish
they can only get Stanton cuz of that contract
None of the “linked” teams are going to land any of these players. It’s going to be teams that have not been mentioned. But, all this talk in fun.
Cubs opening starting pitcher? Lester, Hendricks or Ohtani? You figure they’d have Ohtani go 1 or 2.
Cubs not getting Otani after the kukudome signing might stay out of Japanese players.
I don’t think Stanton is going to accept a trade to San Francisco, St. Louis or Phillies, those teams are in the same or worst position of the Marlins. We got a good team we just lack pitching. If LAD puts a good package he’s gone in a heartbeat.Also Boston. If the return is not good enough just let him play in Miami. Another Miggy gone.
I feel like Stanton for Joc Pederson would be a good deal for both teams, but I feel that the Marlins may not want to pay the money that would be needed to get that deal done.
Stanton isn’t going to the Dodgers it’s a long shot at best. Yes they have the prospects to get it done and yes Stanton will waive his no trade for sure to go to the Dodgers but the problem is salary the Dodgers are not taking on that salary I just don’t see it. The Dodgers have been hit harder than any other team in luxury tax and want to get below the tax line they also have some pretty important guys like Kershaw coming up soon. Unless they want to blow past the luxury tax penalty they are not even in the running for Stanton.
If Stanton waives his NTC it’s for the Dodgers. There’s a lot of salary coming off the Dodgers books in the next few seasons. The way Stantons contract is back loaded it won’t hurt that much the first three seasons
No question he will waive his no trade clause but the reason the Dodgers aren’t really being mentioned is because they are not going to take on that contract. If they were willing to then the experts would have him going there as the number one option it makes sense in all other ways.
Since when are the Dodgers worried about salary?
They haven’t won the WS in 30 years and if Stanton in their minds is the key to make that happen, I doubt very seriously that they’ll let the luxury Tax stand in their way. When have they said that they’re goal is to get below the luxury tax?
Since Friedman took over they have been curbing there spending. Since he has taken over they haven’t had any really big free agent contracts that I can think of off the top of my head. He seems to be a win by building your team from within guy.
If you think the cardinals are in same position as marlins or worse I don’t even know what to say to you. MLB roster is young with huge upside, flush with prospects and cash. Cards bay or may not get Stanton but either way they are well positioned to compete in 2018 and coming years
Cardinals are no longer the top Dog in the Central that belongs to the Cubs. The Brewers are on the rise and have a great farm and young players also. The Cardinals and Pirates will be battling it out for third.
I think the fact that the Dodgers are being considered as much of a favorite for Otani as the Yankees shows that the whole idea that he is only going to go to an AL team isn’t true. I wouldn’t count out the Phillies or Cubs who could both use pitching.
Also given that Ohtani apparently came close to signing with the Dodgers out of high school. Not saying that the Dodgers are necessarily the favorites to land him, but for sure NL teams can’t be counted out.
I think the dodgers are the favorites for ohtani and I believe they will get him
Trying not let being a hometown fan get in the way of the basic logic of the situation, but sure, I believe the Dodgers have at least as good of a chance as any team.
Cubs as painful to say it-Yes
Phillies-hard pass
Angels get Stanton and Gordon. BANK ON IT.
With what trades?
I do not think McCutcheon is going on anywhere this offseason unless some team offers the mother lode to the Pirates. No team is going to offer the mother lode for McCutcheon. If he does get traded, it will be at the deadline if the Pirates are out of it. They will keep him, offer him a qualifier and if he signs it, great. If he does not, they will effectively trade him for a draft choice. They will do this to placate fans and try to be in contention one last time with him. They will offer some kind of mid range term contract with him in the 3-4 year range max but it will be in the average of 16/17 per year max. They are not being cheap they are being business smart because he already has shown signs of being on the downward swing and the do not want to give him 5×20 that someone may give him and be on the hook for big money when he really tails off in another couple of years. That is what they can not afford.
Cardinals going to have a new look with cf mccutchen 3b donaldson rf stanton 1b bellinger lf judge 2b altuve ss seager c sanchez rotation kershaw scherzer strasburg sale kluber and wade davis kenley jansen aroldis chapman zach britton in bullpen. That should all cost around $150.00 or so.
With Matheny as manager, that team finishes four games behind the Cubs.
Am I wrong to not want the Red Sox to sign either of these guys? They won 93 games as basically currently constructed. Maybe we could save up for Machado or trade for Stanton instead?
When did the Stanton rumors turn from the Marlin’s desire to dump a big contract and shed payroll into teams unloading top prospects to get him?
Personally I don’t see the Marlins getting much from the Cardinals without taking on money. I think Grichuk for Stanton straight up is reasonable if the Cardinals take the whole contract.
Is there “value” to the Rangers international signing dollars or should I ask can those dollars be traded along with Choo to Yanks, Dodgers, etc (Ohtani suitors)? Just curious.