Even though Rays general manager Erik Neander suggested last week that the team plans to keep its top trade chip, Chris Archer, the right-hander still figures to frequent the rumor mill this offseason. On Saturday, for instance, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported that the Rays may well listen to offers on their priciest veterans, including Archer, this winter. The 29-year-old Archer certainly isn’t expensive – he’s controllable through 2021 at just $33.75MM – but removing his team-friendly contract would nonetheless help the Rays in their quest to cut payroll. Plus, with Boston and New York looking primed to serve as major American League East obstacles in the coming years, it could behoove the Rays to embark on a rebuild in the wake of four straight sub-.500 seasons and try to return to relevance down the road.
Trading Archer would be a near-term white flag from Tampa Bay, but it would go a long way toward helping the club further beef up its already deep farm system. The hard-throwing workhorse’s presence on the trade market would undoubtedly spark a bidding war, given both his ultra-affordable contract and front-line track record. Since debuting in 2012, Archer has pitched to a 3.63 ERA/3.46 FIP and notched 9.72 K/9 against 2.94 BB/9. He’s now coming off his third straight 200-inning season, one that saw him overshadow a merely decent ERA (4.07) with career-best marks in K/9 (11.15), BB/9 (2.69) and swinging-strike rate (13.4 percent).
Every team would love to add such an appealing starter, but some aren’t close enough to contention to justify seriously pursuing a trade for him, while others probably don’t have good enough farm systems to come out on top in an Archer sweepstakes. Of last season’s playoff teams, the Twins, Cubs (one of Archer’s ex-organizations) and Rockies stand out as clubs that would benefit the most from acquiring Archer, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see any of the Astros, Dodgers (led by former Rays GM Andrew Friedman, who traded for Archer in Tampa Bay), Nationals or Yankees attempt to land him. Meanwhile, none of the Brewers, Cardinals, Braves or Phillies qualified for the postseason in 2017, but all of those clubs have above-average systems and are seemingly on the upswing. Those factors, not to mention issues in each of their rotations, would make Archer a reasonable target.
Any talk of an offseason Archer trade will go down as much ado about nothing if the Rays don’t opt for a major rebuild, but as Topkin suggested, it’s at least under consideration. Should the Rays take that extreme route, Archer would shake up a pitching market that includes a couple top-tier free agent starters (Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta), with another potentially on the way in Japanese star Shohei Ohtani. For teams that can’t or don’t want to dish out nine-figure contracts to Darvish or Arrieta, and for those that miss out on the highly coveted Ohtani, Archer would make for an enticing alternative via trade.
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Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
yo only god knows bro
That was really helpful.
Probably no, but, more importantly….
WHERE ARE THE TRADES AND SIGNINGS????
Seriously there’s been 1 MLB trade (Healy to SEA) and 1 sign (JUp to Angels)…but literally nothing else?? It’s November 19, by this point last year there had been at least 9 MLB trades and dozens of signings, why is this taking so long?
Let’s tweet @MLB and all teams, demanding they pick up the pace. I will post about it on Facebook as well and tell teams I may not attend games in 2018 either, so that they start signing guys.
Yea right…..off season baseball addicts demand some off season trades or we will boycott the 2018 season. Thinking that wouldn’t work.
Most boring offseason so far in along time
Nothing really happens til the winter meetings. That’s when the good shiitake goes down.
There were at least nine trades of mlb players by this date last year starting from November 1. This year there’s been one.
Agreed, I haven’t been able to sleep at all due to this chaos and instability. Have you had irregular bowel movements as well?
I agree. So much hype every year especially at the trade deadline. Off season activity has become very methodical. Gone are the days when Whitey traded half of the Cards roster in one week!
I think it’s bc there are few impact stars. Those guys are waiting out the market. Teams are waiting, and most of the other free agents are going to have to wait as well.
Rule 4 draft has to take place first.
MLB anymore is all about using as many of your 40 man roster as possible – specially pitching. Many teams will wait until after draft to protect top levels of their Farm.
That happens this week!
Then free for all begins… pitching should go off quickly after that.
Rule 5 sorry
Yea I’ve been wondering what’s going on as well. Be silent so far..would love to see some trades and signings soon.
I do think Archer will be traded and I also think Longoria will be treaded as well.
*traded as well
I’m actually surprised there were 9 trades by this time last year. For some reason it felt like nothing happened until after thanksgiving so this offseason felt normal to me. Guess it’s not.
Everyone is waiting to see where Stanton is going
I see theBraves as really one of the few teams with the prospects to snag Archer. I think Rays want to compete.
Does anyone feel that the Twins or Brewers could get it done? I think the Twins’ history of signing these mediocre starters to large contracts could be shaken up by this sort of trade, but again I’m not well versed on their farm system.
Both those teams have the young talent to get Archer, but would really cripple their cores by doing so.
I honestly feel like the Twins don’t have the prospects to get it done. Not the quality at least, unless they include an MLB player in the trade which I’m not sure they’d do.
C’mon Braves, trade Maitan while he is still our’s. Lol
Ha never thought about that. I’m assuming Maitan is on an MLB restricted list or something along those lines right now though
I think they’re allowed to try them but I doubt any other team would touch him now. but that does bring up the question what if they trade him last year.
I doubt he’d be declared a free agent if he got traded
And who would give value for a guy they can probably sign in the near future.
Archer, Colome, Hechev. to Cubs for
Schwarber, Montgomery, Russell
Cardinals will easily top that offer
How do you figure that?
Cardinals give up Reyes, Flaherty, any other outfield prospect…Pham could be included…let’s see where else can the cardinals deal from…they could give up Carpenter and that alone is better than Schwarber lol so two top young pitching arms and a couple of top 100 outfielders…too easy
As a cards fan, hard pass on giving up Reyes and/or Pham for Archer. Rays would be right to demand Reyes for Archer, I would just say no.
Andy…i was makin a point. Even still the cardinals could easily top an offer of Schwarber, Russel and Montgomery…that’s is weak. The cardinals already want Colome…throw in archer and cardinals would give up more than the cubs…sorry cubs but you threw in all your cards and finally won a World Series, congrats, but the cardinals will top any offer considering they have such a great farm system and you want to try and pawn off some on major league talent
Lol cubs haters out tonight…what package could the cubs offer that is better lol I want to hear it
Why would the Cubs want Archer? He is so overrated. He was a stud two years ago. He has been above average the past two years if that and you want to trade for him like he is an ace?
I agree JKB but if a deal like Archer and Colome surfaces it would be perfect for the Cardinals and they could easily top any cubs offer…the cubs only have maybe enough to get archer alone…but combining the two cubs don’t have a chance
@cards81
Agreed if the Cardinals want Archer they can get him
Lmao
Why even post a trade proposal if it’s going to be blatantly absurd? You’re clearly a Cubs fan wishing for a steal like this… be realistic man lol
Take out Hechev. And I’d say yes. He wouldn’t have a spot to play. Happ would play 2nd 95% of the time. Baez would man SS and Zo would take over in Left. Unless they flip him for pitching.
Why on earth would Zobrist waive his NTC…
counteroffer: Archer to Cubs for Kris Bryant, Jose Quintana, the ghost of Ernie Banks, Theo Epstein’s two sons, and the Chicago Blackhawks
Cubs would also need to throw in some cash to offset the deal.
Swap out Archer for Odorizzi and you have a deal!
Justin-Turner if that is your idea of a trade thank god you are not in charge
That’ll never happen in real life. Maybe on Playstation.
Cubs going to need to add a lot of specs.
Archer alone is worth more than that.
Where do the Rays benefit? Lol
LOL!!! schwarber has zero value. stop with stupid offers
@dewssox79
To say he has zero value shows ignorance. I wish you were a real GM. I would love to make trades with you
That’s not true at all
Mattblaze13 – The Rays wouldn’t trade Archer alone for that package. There’s no front line starter, no prospect with the potential to be a front line starter, and Montgomery and Russell play positions the Rays have plenty of replacements at the MLB and AAA level. Schwarber might work out as a DH in the American League (and I think he will), but he’s not exactly worth Archer alone, Russell is basically the same as Hech (and the Rays haven’t decided if they even want to keep Hech, and Montgomery would be one of the Rays worst relievers (and no chance of joining the rotation). Hard Pass!!!
Rays traded Montgomery to Cubs.
No Rays did not trade Montgomery to the Cubs. Seattle did. Do you know anything?
We traded him to the Mariners.
It might take Montgomery Schwarber and Russell just to get Archer!
Archer to Houston for Kyle Tucker, Martes, and Musgrove.
They already got their star pitcher and won it all. The Astors making a big pitching move ship has sailed
Keuchel is a FA after the season, they will need to replace him while saving money for Altuve, Correa, and Springer.
They can with martes
The Rays would strongly consider that offer.
That’s the same deal that the white Sox supposedly wanted for Quintana. It’s a fair ask. I would rather the Astros keep Musgrove for the pen and throw in some minor leaguers. But it’s a fair deal.
The Rays have had four straight losing seasons. I think it’s time for the Rays to trade everyone and start all over.
The Rays’ Farm System is too close to graduating top talent to the MLB level. A complete rebuild would be stupid. But a trade of Colome, Longo, Odorizzi and perhaps Miller and/or Dickerson makes sense to me. I don’t see Archer being traded before the trade deadline, but anything is possible.
Rays should get a new tv contract by the start of the 2020 season so they could afford to stretch budgets back loaded to 2020 and beyond. But they are more likely to keep getting younger and try to time an upswing once the new stadium thing gets figured out for a quality to open the new digs!
Like all sports franchises I’m sure the Rays will hold the city hostage and have tax payers fork out the majority cost of a new stadium so it’s confusing as you would want to put out a good product to sway public opinion right?
Then there is Kevin cash and depleted coaching staff so the talent on the field may not develop anyway… confusing times in Tampa but at least we go to games on cheap!
Schwarber and Happ for Archer.
not enough, imo. Archer is good and cheap for 4 years. However, note I’m not a huge Schwarber guy
The cubs would have to trade talent off the roster since all of the top prospects have graduated to the major league level, and the cubs might be out of prospects to trade since they got quintana last year at the deadline.
But there’s a lot of teams that are big on him,so you trade for him and move him for even more prospects
@chucky25
No sir. You do not trade for Archer with the intent if just trading him again for “more prospects” what in the world are you thinking?
Add about 3 more specs.
Seriously, that’s not even close.
The Rays would also expect at least one high risk, high reward player in A or rookie ball, but I like that package a lot.
Two prospects for a proven stud SP? Whoa!!! Ah….no!
Schwarber and Happ are regular MLB players.
there are too many options on the free agent market to get a big return for Archer. The best bet would be to wait for the non waiver trade deadline
Perhaps but I wonder how many competitive teams would see Archer as a top-end of the rotation starter. That’s what teams headed to the postseason are generally seeking.
I’m a Rays fan and even I don’t see Archer as a legitimate ace. We’ve been expecting him to turn the corner for years now. Sure, he’ll strike guys out, but he’ll give up a lot of home runs. He may be better suited to the bullpen, like Wade Davis. Royals tried him out as a starter and it didn’t work. I could see Archer in an Andrew Miller sort of role. Not necessarily a closer, but as a nice weapon able to go multiple innings.
Interesting insight
What are you talking about? Over the last 3 seasons, Archer is 5th in innings and top 12 in FIP, xFIP, K-BB% and fWAR. I’m not going to attempt to argue your definition of a legitimate ace, but Archer is one of the top 15-20 starting pitchers in baseball. When you add in that he is signed for the next 4 years to one of the most team friendly contracts in baseball, it’s clear he has huge value and benefits every team.
Totally disagree if the Rays made Archer available he would command a huge price. His pitching peripherals are all at ace or near ace level and he get him for 4 years at 33.75 million. Wow ton of extra value in that contract should net somewhere more then Q and less then Sale but very similar asset. If I was the Rays I would start the rebuild now.
According to ERA+ he’s been a league-average pitcher for the last two seasons and all of his BAA stats have been going in the wrong direction over that time. His team control is a valuable commodity but my point is the Rays are probably better off moving him in the offseason to a team looking to fill out their rotation, rather than at the trade deadline to a team in need of a 1-3 starter.
Well his Fip his XFip his Sierra and War are all near ace quality. His K’s per 9 and his walks per 9 are elite. Last year his babip was .325 way higher then it’s ever been his a near ace period and he will command a near ace return if he is traded.
Whether you consider him a “near ace” or not, my point remains the same.
What options are you talking about? Darvish? Arrieta? Archer is arguably better than both and comes at 20% the cash cost.
Not for as cheap.
Some of these people here don’t understand that the way the off-season is unfolded is caused by the big names… for example.. some teams are likely waiting for shoei otani to be posted before they do anything major
Smartest thing said in this post. We should see some bigger rumours start Tuesday after the posting has been settled
Yep Marlins, Ohtani, and Brave’s penalty situation is what’s holding back the market. When those break deals will start moving.
Poll is fairly down the middle right now
This is only the popular vote; it’s the electoral vote that matters.
As a twins fan I’ve been wanting an archer trade since WS game 7. They’ll be paying a lot, but they need it. Archer and Darvish. Twins have a set roster of position players for the near future so giving up a bit of the farm for archer makes sense.
Just look at all the players poached from the twins this offseason because they waited for the the prospects too long. I’d rather cash in on some prospect value now rather than waiting for them to be blocked in the show and getting snagged off waivers.
I’ll throw out the Archer to Colorado idea again…like last offseason. It’s mentioned in the post as well. Colorado is going to atleast try to trade for a front line starter.
They have to try.
Colorado, more than probably any team, has to go the trade route to acquire established quality starters. Not much chance they land any in free agency. Easier said than done, of course….but the offense is there….even league average pitching plays up for them. Best to develop their own, of course…as with any team.
Archer, Colome, and Longoria? What would it take?
There’s not a farm in the land that has the prospects they would want for all them.
the braves and white sox beg to differ
Longo isn’t worth much in trade. Archer and Colome are worth a pretty penny though.
The Astros definitely have the pieces, but we wouldn’t want Longo, unless Bregman was somehow part of the deal, which I wouldn’t want.
It would cost a ton. One of the few teams I can think of with the prospects and the need for all 3 would be Atlanta. The return would be something like Acuna, 3 of Allard/Wright/Soroka/Anderson/Gohara, plus several more good pieces. I’d have a hard time imagining any team going that far in on one trade.
At some point with the Rays, the value of diminished returns has to enter into the equation so we’re getting close to the paradigm that’s known as it’s getting time to $h!t or get off the pot!
Same goes with that other outfit that’s 250 miles to the southeast…
Any team that trades for Archer thinking they’re going to get a front line starter will be very disappointed. He’s good, and a move to the NL would likely give him a nice boost, but he’s not an ace. Would look good somewhere where he gets to be a second banana. His peripherals always look good, but the end result looks better in fantasy than in real baseball.
Nope. Besides Sale Kluber and Sevy, there’s no better AL pitcher than Archer.
About 20+ teams would kill to have him as their #1
@shoheiohtahnyy
You must be a comedian if you think that about Archer. Hahaha thanks for the laugh!
The only thing hurting him right now is being on the Rays. A solid defense and knowing if you can give up a run or two and you’ll still win will do wonders. He should be a number one and has the stuff if you look at all those strikeouts, he just needs a team and fans behind him.
I’ve lived in Tampa for seven years and even going to a weekend game is sad. No one drives to st Pete. Imagine the boost having 30,000 fans cheering for you than 3,000… unless he’s like the early Zach greinke, but it doesn’t seem like he gets social anxiety.
I live in Tampa as well. You can have all the strikeouts and great stuff, but he always finds a way to lose. Mediocre pitchers like Matt Andriesse end up with better records. A move to the NL would no doubt help, but the guy is not a No. 1 pitcher on a quality team. A look at his last two seasons shows that.
Wow, these above comments are utterly pathetic. Please save your deep thoughts for local talk radio….
There aren’t that many true aces in the game…so redefining front line starter as a pitcher that would qualify #1-2 on most if not all staffs….I believe Archer qualifies. If he doesnt on a staff….a team has a pretty solid staff. Im thinking of the old A’s teams. Dave Stewart and Bob Welch fronted that staff…so almost anyone else was going to be slotted #3 no matter where they would slot on another team.
They should have already traded him. But meh, whatever.
2018:
Ohtani
Archer
Hendricks
Lester
Quintana
The only thing you’re missing is Kate Upton in the stands.
It’s Wrigley, there’s hundreds of Kate Uptons in the bleachers alone.
Except they are drunk
and fat
and stupid!
I don’t get why everyone wants the Rays to rebuild. they were a borderline Contender last year and they’ve got a top 5 farm system that is mostly full of clothes to the majors Talent. keep Archer sign a couple free agents and build with what you have
Phillies get: Archer / Colome
Rays get: Joseph / Hernandez / Eickhoff / Rupp / Williams / Eflin / Neris