The Tigers have already dealt with a significant portion of their offseason business, dealing their most obvious trade candidate, Ian Kinsler, to the Angels during this month’s Winter Meetings. They’ve also filled some holes with affordable veterans, picking up Mike Fiers for the fifth spot in the rotation and adding Leonys Martin on a low-cost, one-year deal to fill center field.
Still, the Detroit front office is hardly set to merely call it an offseason. The Tigers made clear with their trade of Kinsler and their summer trades of Justin Verlander, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, Justin Wilson and Alex Avila that they’re embarking on a full-scale teardown of the organization. Although those trades have strengthened a thin Tigers farm system, the team still has work to do as it builds up toward a top-of-the-line minor league system and a generally more sustainable avenue to contention than perennially shelling out $200MM+ payrolls.
With Kinsler out of the picture, here’s a look at the remaining assets the Tigers could realistically market this winter…
One-Year Rentals
Jose Iglesias, SS ($5.6MM projected arbitration salary): A superlative defender at shortstop, Iglesias delivered solid offensive output in 2013-15 before his bat deteriorated in 2016-17. He’s batted just .255/.297/.353 across the past two seasons, but for a team in need of a defensive upgrade in the infield or on the bench, Iglesias would be a reasonably low-priced upgrade.
Two Years of Control
Nicholas Castellanos, OF/3B ($7.6MM projected arb salary): Castellanos’ overall .272/.320/.490 was above-average but not outstanding. However, the former top prospect ranked fifth in the Majors in hard-contact rate (among qualified hitters), and Statcast credited him for the 10th-highest number of barreled balls in all of Major League Baseball.
Castellanos comes with significant defensive questions, as he’s been a staggering 64 runs below average in 4400 innings at third base (per Defensive Runs Saved) and eight runs below average in just 211 innings in the outfield. He’s not exactly cheap, but the batted-ball profile could make him intriguing to a team that believes he could improve with additional reps in the outfield.
Alex Wilson, RHRP ($2.1MM projected arb salary): The 31-year-old righty is coming off the worst season of his career (4.50 ERA, 6.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9, 41.6 percent ground-ball rate), but he was a quality bullpen piece for the Red Sox and Tigers from 2014-16. During that time, Wilson logged a 2.47 ERA in 171 1/3 innings of work, albeit with a pedestrian 5.6 K/9 mark against a more encouraging 1.9 BB/9 clip. He’s no stranger to working multi-inning stints and represents an affordable middle relief option.
Longer-Term Assets
Michael Fulmer, SP (pre-arbitration): Fulmer, obviously, would command the largest return of anyone the Tigers could make available. The 2016 AL Rookie of the Year is controlled for another five full seasons and won’t reach arbitration until next winter, when he qualifies for Super Two status. Fulmer was carrying a 3.06 ERA and 3.24 FIP with 6.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.51 HR/9 and a 50.4 percent ground-ball rate through his first 123 2/3 innings this season before his production fell off a cliff. He ultimately underwent surgery to repair the ulnar nerve in his right arm in mid-September, bringing his sophomore season to a close.
The Tigers could extract a king’s ransom for Fulmer, though some teams may be wary of paying top dollar (in terms of prospects) for a pitcher coming off elbow surgery without first seeing that he’s rebounded to an extent. There’s little urgency to trade Fulmer when he can be controlled for the next half decade, but the dearth of high-quality arms available on the trade market could motivate a club to put together a massive offer.
Shane Greene, RHRP ($1.7MM projected arb salary, controlled through 2020): Greene showed plenty to like in his first full season as a reliever, averaging 9.7 K/9 with a 47.4 percent ground-ball rate and a heater that averaged 95 mph en route to a 2.66 ERA through 67 2/3 innings. However, he also posted just an 8.6 percent swinging-strike rate, averaged 4.5 walks per nine and allowed a huge 41.3 percent hard-contact rate. That’s not ideal for a late-inning reliever, of course, though Greene’s strong spin rate on his slider (which ranked 20th of 173 relievers who threw the pitch at least 100 times) could give teams optimism that there’s some untapped potential.
James McCann, C ($2.3MM rojected arb salary, controlled through 2020): McCann won’t turn 28 until next summer, and he’s coming off the best offensive season of his career, having slashed .253/.318/.415 with a career-best 13 homers. He’s long had his share of struggles against righties, but the right-handed-hitting McCann has absolutely obliterated left-handed pitching in his career, as evidenced by a .287/.346/.538 batting line (including .298/.371/.558 in 2017). McCann has thrown out 37 percent of would-be base thieves in his career, though he drew poor marks from Baseball Prospectus for his pitch framing and blocking in 2017. (He was solid in both regards in 2016.) A contender in need of an upgrade behind the dish (e.g. the Nationals) could try to pry McCann away from the Tigers, as he almost certainly won’t be a part of the next competitive Detroit club.
Mikie Mahtook, OF (pre-arbitration): The Tigers have only had Mahtook for one year, having successfully bought low on the former first-rounder last February in a trade with the Rays. The 28-year-old batted .276/.330/.457 through 379 trips to the plate with Detroit. Mahtook has played all three outfield spots, and while most metrics aren’t kind to him in center field, he’s drawn solid UZR marks in the corners (DRS doesn’t care for his glovework anywhere, while Statcast pegged him as a neutral defender in 2017). Detroit can hang onto him for another four years, so there’s no rush to move him. The return, at present, would probably be fairly minimal. However, another solid year — perhaps with greater playing time — could bolster intrigue.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B/DH (six years, $192MM remaining): It’s almost unfathomable to envision a Cabrera trade on the heels of a .249/.329/.399 (92 OPS+) season when he’s owed a staggering average of $32MM over the next six seasons. The former MVP was diagnosed with a pair of herniated disks in his back in September and will play next season at the age of 35. If Cabrera were a free agent right now, he’d earn a mere fraction of that remaining commitment. No one would take on his contract — all of which may be moot, as he also has full no-trade protection.
Salary Dump Candidates
Jordan Zimmermann (three years, $74MM remaining; full no-trade clause), Victor Martinez (one year, $18MM remaining; full no-trade clause)
The Tigers would love to shed either of these contracts, but it’s difficult to see any takers lining up — especially for Zimmermann. Detroit can hold out some hope that Zimmermann will rebound in 2018, which would position him as a more plausible trade candidate after the 2018 season, when his no-trade provision drops from all 29 other teams to a limited 10-team clause. That’s a lot to expect, though, considering his diminished velocity, strikeout rate and ground-ball rate (to say nothing of a skyrocketing home run rate).
Martinez, meanwhile, just turned 39 years old and is coming off a season in which he hit just .255/.324/.372 and was limited to 435 plate appearances, in part due to a pair of DL stints for an irregular heartbeat. His value is at an all-time low, and he’s been mentioned as a speculative release candidate more than a potential trade piece.
Where is my boy Daniel “camper van” Norris?
Selling that low on Norris when they have such a lack of upper-level pitching just doesn’t seem plausible. At least with Fulmer, he’s coming off a non-Tommy John / non-TOS arm surgery and has two straight seasons of high-quality performance.
Trading Norris (or Matt Boyd) when they’re coming off 5+ ERAs without an established MLB track record just doesn’t seem like something they’d consider much.
I know hindsight is 20/20, but man is that miggy contract a disaster.
I was confused by when they extended for 4 years. I think he would have two years left if they didn’t extend making him a lot easier to move his contract.
I don’t think it requires much hindsight. It looked like a disaster at the time, too. He was already signed for another two seasons, through age 32, when they tacked on another 8/248.
Foresight, in that case, was also 20/20. Name one long-term contract to a player that age that ever worked out.
Barry Bonds.
2002 – 2006 … those 5 years covered his age 37 to 41 seasons. He generated 35 fWAR and that included a season with just 52 PA’s. Basically he averaged almost 9 fWAR/season in his late 30’s through early 40’s.
Of course, your general point is true. Long, expensive, contracts to aging sluggers rarely work out. I’m sure the Tigers (and Angels) were really hoping that Cabrera and Pujols would turn out more like Barry Bonds than just the shell of themselves so early into these deals.
You do realize he put up an OPS+ of 161 over his first 9 seasons with the Tigers, right? Thats producing 61% above MLB average over a decade. Unheard of… 4 consecutive AL Central titles for the Tigers during that time. AL Championship and WS appearance too. So the guy had a bad year last year and had a bum back – yet still had essentially league-average production.
Maybe I need to look up the definition of disaster.
League average production at 30 mill a year isnt good.
Seems like a lot of people look at numbers and production but dont look at cost associated.
He’s referring to the contract extension – not the years covered in his previous contract. The next 6 years are going to be brutal.
And he was below average last year.
If you could make a package of fulmer and Cabrera and eat almost half that money you could still get a kings ransom
Uh, no you wouldnt. Michael Fulmer isnt worth taking on $92 million in financial committments over the next 6 years while giving up a kings ransom.
Teams do get good prospects for taking on bad contracts, but that is way above what teams are willing deal with.
You only missed the financial commitment by a paltry $100 million, but who really is concerned about nothing more than a little pocket change.
you missed the OP saying about HALF the financial committment to cabrera. wonder why I left out the other HALF in my comment.
Funny how Detroit has dumped their whole team and Miami is the team getting bashed!
Ummmm…probably because the Marlins have a long history of “rebuilding” during the Loria years and now under Jeter. And the Tigers didn’t completely screw their fans by stocking up in free agency before their new ballpark opened (which was heavily funded by tax payer dollars), only to have the team start trading off all of those players 4 months after the ballpark opened. But you know, it fits your narrative, so good job.
Detroit dumped old players and Miami is dumping young ones. That’s a difference. None of the guys Detroit moved were going to be around the next time Detroit was good. The Marlins weren’t far from contention with that core of Stanton/Ozuna/Yelich et. al.
Detroit dumped their good players because they were a trash team. The sole reason of Miami’s sell of was money, just like their previous owner
Miami and the new ownership are shedding bad deals for them in Stanton, Gordon, and the rest is a move that is set to resemble what the Astros did. You’ll see a lot more of this I.e. ChiSox. Build your farm and grow young talent. I’ll bet the Marlins are contenders in 2022/2023
Detroit didn’t put together a great, overpriced roster, use that roster to get the city to pay for a new stadium, sell overpriced season tickets and suits, and then literally the year after securing the stadium and income sell off the entire team for peanuts. Loria bilked millions from Florida and screwed them. Mr illitch in Detroit is the exact opposite. He would of rather taken a loss than screw the city or the fans.
Who did the Marlins add before the stadium deal? Dee Gordon the rest were there and dee had been there 2 years. Loria was a moron
Foresight, in that case, was also 20/20. Name one long-term contact to a player that age that ever worked out.
Wow! Who is the genius that decided it was a good idea to give 32 mil after the age of 35?! That is Very very very stupid! Maybe until he is 38 and that is not a good idea, but not 41. It is not a video game where his stats from his prime can be used over and over. They paid for past performance dreaming he could do it until 41. SMH
The guy who now runs the Red Sox. David “Dump the Farm” Dombrowski.
If your here, who’s watching the Sabb Factory?
I read this article as Tanking Inventory: Detroit Tigers lol
I wouldn’t count Miggy out.
I would count Miggy out. Red flag: herniated discs, and he’s doing core strengthening exercises?!?! This means there’s no surgical treatment and the affliction is chronic. The Tigers better get shopping for a first baseman because Miggy won’t last into summer with his back (if he even makes it out of spring training).. The best case is that they switch him to DH, but then what about V-Mart? He’ll be back to collect his paycheck while sitting on the bench or the disabled list… he’s no fool. Mikey will lead the team in hitting at .267, and Nicholas will lead the league in errors. Fulmer will have 12 wins and 19 losses. This upcoming season is going to be so bad for the Tigers and their fans.
The Tigers have to release VMart. There is absolutely nothing to be gained by having him take up a roster spot. Miggy could be full time DH and maybe have a chance at playing out his own ridiculous contract. If they allow VM to DH and force Miggy to 1B, they’re risking more time on the DL for Cabrera.
Release VMart, Put Miggy to full time DH. Hicks to full time 1B.
You guys do awesome work, but i see a blunder here with no mention of Jeimer Candelerio.. He is a significant long term asset who already pushed Castellanos to the OF (good luck).. Candy can rake it–wish the Cubs had room for him..hated to see him go.
Are you saying the Tigers should trade Candelerio? Because the article is about players on the Tigers roster who they may still look at trying to move this offseason. Candelerio looks to be part of their future, not a trade candidate
No! Not at all..the article is entitled “Taking Inventory”…so what do you have? What ‘s good and what isn’t? Candelario is a long term asset and unless i missed it–he isn’t mentioned.
I think they’re taking inventory of remaining trade chips on a rebuilding team, not just all their assets.
I think the inventory is considered trade pieces
it’s about trade candidates if you’ve actually read the article
This article has a poorly worded title.
It’s intended to be a high-level look at the Cubs’ trade assets. They’re not trading Candelario.
Tigers, not Cubs.
Ah-hah. Re-read and –my bad!
Ha, yes. Good lord Steve.
To be fair, I do think it would be helpful if MLBTR would do a companion series, on the assets that teams would keep, for near-, medium-, and long-term, rather than trade. Some (e.g. Fullmer) would probably fall in both categories.
Bonds produced in his late 30’s and early 40’s because of “the cream” and “the clear” as well as other illegal PED’s. Without those old guys are not going to hit like that. There are a few guys who naturally defy father time, Nolan Ryan for example, but they are the exception not the rule. Past 35 years old players are supposed to decline and will not be worth 15 – 30 million plus per year contracts
Nolan Ryan didn’t defy father time. He used PEDs like almost everyone else did. Not possible to throw that hard in his 40s. But he was never brought up. He’s just super human. Big Unit too. Nothing against the steroid users but lets not be naive about Nolan Ryan.
Lol Ryan in no way used roads. He had a rubber arm. The last pitch of his career her threw after tearing every ligament in his arm the pitch before and that last pitch was 100 mph
Peds or not, Barry bonds was the greatest hitter to ever play the game. Steroids don’t help you make contact. Bonds was not a good example for other people’s contracts, as he was one of a kind. Also, for decades every clubhouse had a bowl of pills (amphetamines) for players. Players also used to drink And consume cocaine (babe ruth) but we just give everyone who didn’t play in the 90s a pass. Also, the league promoted steroid use to get the fans interested on the game again. Twit.
Ty Cobb.
“Twit”? What are you, 12?
Also every player pre 2000 was using amphetamines all the way back to the 20’s. Steroids we not illegal in baseball. No rules against it when they we’re used. Bonds was top 5
miggie is far from done. put that in your book.
As someone with back/spine problems, yeah he’s done. He might be able to play a mediocre DH, but DH isn’t really baseball.
Ha you don’t have his doctors or LeBrons trainer
If you have such problems, you should know that conditions and treatments vary widely and you don’t have enough info to claim that “he’s done”.
Its gonna be a long year in Motown.
3-5 years*
Long three years
Miguel Cabrera is going to win comeback player of the year this season. Book it
I hope so. However, Miguel Cabrera reminds me how Matt Kemp allowed himself to get fat after his final deal. Cabrera has two herniated discs that he blamed his decline but, they have gone untreated. What is more probable is that he blames the discs again and has surgery mid-season.
Of course he had treatment. There are a lot of options available other than major surgery, which may have not been indicated anyway.
Don’t hold your breath on it.
I wouldn’t doubt it…
Let’s say for the sake of argument that the Tigers part ways with VMart. Miggy becomes the DH. He’s already in Cooperstown. Do they put Castellanos at 1b?
Make sense to me.
I doubt that he’d be any better defensively at 1B than he was at 3b & OF. If he hits much better in ’18 (probably will, given the metrics) his value will rise and his D won’t be as much of a factor.
vmart is done they will eat the contract …miggy has to Dh maybe play 40 games at first… nick cant play first or rf…they probably move nick no later then trade deadline and pickup a cheap FA first baseman…..in febuary …and live with nick in right til hes gone…but vmart is gone plus a total cancer in the clubhouse the last couple years
you’re right on VMart. It would make zero sense to keep him around this season. Release him and give the at bats to young guys. Would rather keep Nick in RF until they can trade him. Lets see Hicks spend majority of time at first. Also excited to see Machado playing full time this year. This bargain infield could be surprisingly good this year.
i also think fullmer will be a yankee soon…NY is slow walking PItt and cole…..that trade wont go down…i think ny will then turn there sights on fulmer…he is really who i think ny really wantsed all along…lets just hope avilia loads up on prospects or tell ny to call back in july whem his price will be higher,,,,avilia should also eat tons of zimmermans contract and get the nationals to commit to taking him back..,,,
Word on the streets is that Ron Gardenhire’s wife wants Jim Caldwell and his wife to live with them in their trailer which is parked behind Center Field at Comerica. . Caldwell will help with the proposed Garden the new manager hire is constructing to keep pitchers busy during games while they are warming up.. Caldwell has lawn moving experience and his wife has cauliflower talents,. Who could have imagined the insight, intelligence and expertise which is about to grow.