The Reds have already parted out most of the components of their most recently competitive roster. It seems the inclination now is to begin climbing the hill rather than continue to strip away veterans. That being said, this is a club that won just 68 games in 2017 and has shown no real indication of ramping up spending.
In short, the Reds are in no position to decline to consider trades involving shorter-term veteran assets. At the same time, indications are that they have fairly hefty asking prices affixed to some of their most notable trade pieces.
[Related: Cincinnati Reds depth chart and Reds payroll outlook]
Two Years of Control
Billy Hamilton, CF (projected $5.0MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2019): The game’s preeminent burner, Hamilton has drawn a steady drumbeat of trade chatter all winter. Thus far, nothing has come together, but it still feels reasonably likely that another organization will make a significant enough offer to tempt the Reds. After all, though Hamilton has yet to show he can consistently reach base, his lofty baserunning and defensive value make him a highly useful player even if his career ceiling with the bat is still about twenty percent below league average. Dealing Hamilton would clear room in the outfield rotation for youngster Jesse Winker, who showed well in his 2017 debut.
Scooter Gennett, 2B (projected $6.1MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2019): The Cinci front office made good on its surprising claim of Gennett before the 2017 campaign. He rewarded the faith with 497 plate appearances of .295/.342/.531 hitting and 27 home runs — far and away his best full-season output. That said, Gennett has never hit lefties much and is generally graded as a below-average defender at second, limiting his value. There has been little reported interest to this point, though perhaps it still wouldn’t surprise if he ends up on the move.
Longer-Term Assets
Joey Votto, 1B ($157MM thru 2023; includes buyout on 2024 club option): Sure, he’s 34 years of age, but Votto has been the second-best hitter in baseball over the past three years. That makes the remainder of his massive extension seem quite a bit less onerous than might have been feared. Odds are, though, we won’t get a chance to see how the rest of the league values Votto. All indications are that Votto is not interested in waiving his full no-trade protection and the Reds seem happy to keep him around.
Raisel Iglesias, RP ($13.5MM thru 2020; may opt into arbitration; arb-eligible thru 2021); The Reds’ most obviously marketable player, Iglesias has blossomed into one of the game’s better young late-inning relievers. He’s capable of functioning as a traditional closer or multi-inning stopper. Though he’ll ultimately have a chance to boost his earnings by opting into arbitration, Iglesias remains a controllable bargain. While we analyzed his possible market earlier in the offseason, indications are that the Reds have advertised such a high and firm asking price that interested parties aren’t even coming onto the lot to kick the tires.
Eugenio Suarez, INF (projected $4.4MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2020): With three years of control remaining, the Reds don’t need to deal Suarez. But they could conceivably find it an opportune time to move the 26-year-old, who is fresh off of an excellent .260/.367/.461 campaign, with top prospect Nick Senzel nearing MLB readiness. That said, Suarez is capable of playing elsewhere in the infield, and it seems likelier that the Reds will explore a long-term contract than try to work out a deal for a player who could well be a key part of the organization’s next contender.
Tucker Barnhart, C ($16MM through 2021; includes buyout on 2022 club option): A quality defender who has increasingly shown he can hit at a useful rate, Barnhart only signed his contract in September. It’d rank as quite a surprise were he to be moved at this point.
Adam Duvall, OF (pre-arb eligible): Though he has swatted over thirty home runs in each of the past two seasons, Duvall has been a roughly league-average hitter due to his inability to get on base (career .296 OBP). That said, highly-rated glovework in the gives Duvall the profile of a solid average regular in the corner. There’d be interest if the Reds make him available, but it still seems likely he’ll be kept in the fold.
Scott Schebler, OF (pre-arb eligible): You can basically take exactly what was written about Duvall and apply it to Schebler. While the latter did not grade as a top-end right fielder in 2017, he did show he can palatably patrol center. With just 1.132 years of service to this point, though, Schebler is likely to remain in Cincinnati for the time being.
Anthony DeSclafani, SP (projected $1.1MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2020): Elbow troubles robbed all of 2017 from DeSclafani. He remains an exciting pitcher when healthy, and the Reds are all but certain to hold onto his upside this winter.
Brandon Finnegan, SP (pre-arb eligible): Similarly, Finnegan is coming off of a season in which entered with big expectations but managed only four outings. Cinci has little choice but to hope for better health. It’s worth noting, too, that other controllable starters — most notably, eye-opening 2017 debutante Luis Castillo — are likely to be kept in the stable.
Michael Lorenzen, RP (projected $1.4MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2021): Perhaps the Reds would at least listen to offers on Lorenzen, who did not produce results to match his big-time stuff in 2017. He’d surely draw interest after showing a personal-high 10.4% swinging-strike rate and strong 54.6% groundball rate in heavy usage (83 innings over seventy appearances). But for the Reds, the hope remains that he’ll join Iglesias to form a dominant late-inning duo. It’s even less likely that the club will end up dealing other relief assets, though perhaps there could be some interest in Wandy Peralta, who turned in a solid (if hardly dominant) rookie season.
Jose Peraza, INF (pre-arb eligible): Unless the Reds decide to give up on Peraza, he’ll remain on hand to fill out the infield. But the team is no doubt concerned with what it saw over his 518 plate appearances in 2017, as Peraza managed 23 stolen bases but otherwise produced a marginal .259/.297/.324 batting line.
Salary Dump Candidates
Homer Bailey, SP ($49MM through 2019; includes buyout of 2020 mutual option): If you’re looking for positives, you’d note that Bailey showed velocity in the range of his career peak (94 mph or so) over 91 frames in 2017 — his most extensive action since 2014. But he managed only a 6.43 ERA in that span, with just 6.6 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9. Given that the Reds have a need for innings, and no doubt still have some hope that Bailey will find his way, it seems likeliest this contract will remain on the books for the time being.
Devin Mesoraco, C ($13.125MM in 2018): Just as he was finally showing some signs of health and productivity with a .260/.345/.600 output last June, Mesoraco hit the DL with a shoulder strain. He scarcely hit at all upon returning and ended up suffering a season-ending foot fracture in mid-August. In the aggregate, the Reds have received virtually nothing for the $28MM they committed to Mesoraco via extension: he has provided just 271 plate appearances of 61 OPS+ hitting over the past three seasons. With nearly half of that outlay still left to be paid in the final year of the deal, it’s hard to see Mesoraco as anything but a potential salary dump candidate at this stage. In all likelihood, the Reds will carry him into the season and see what they can get — with the idea of a mid-season trade still carrying at least some potential for saving a bit of cash.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
What would the Reds want for Lorenzen and Peraza?
Id be interested in the padres acquiring both. I think Lorenzens stuff would play better in petco and Peraza would be able to fill ss.
I don’t see them dealing Peraza, that would leave them without a shortstop in its entirety.
Not really if Senzel is ready move Suarez back to short
Reds need pitching and they will be scary. The offense was crazy last year.
I appreciate that comment. Desclafani, Finnegan, Bailey and Castillo have been noted as starters – per Price. That leaves Romano, Stephenson and Mahle pushing for the 5th spot. Moreover, Amir Garrett should be healthy next year. I don’t know if they need pitching as much as they need health.
I think they need both. Health and 2 strong bullpen arms. Hughes..X. Need another
The pitching last year didn’t impress me. That pitching staff will not get them to the playoffs. I wonder why they don’t go after any of the free agent pitchers.
The pitching didn’t impress you because they were not healthy. They started with 80% of their rotation on the DL. If the 4 are healthy, disco, finny, bailey and Castillo it’s going to be a tough decision on who their number 5 is. Romano, Mahle, and Stephenson all pitched well at the end of the season and I believe garrett is out of options? I think he could be a good long relief guy.
they have a lot of pictures with potential but they have very few that have proven that they are actually good pictures they still need a lot of pitching to either develop or acquire before they can contend
This is a very optimistic write up. Great job!
If the reds are healthy they are a few good arms away from competing for a Wild card spot. I’m hoping they don’t trade anyone heading into 2018. Sign a few good cheap arms and see what happens before the trade deadline
I would like for them to deal Duvall. Opens left for Winker.
I don’t see anything wrong with being 4 deep in the OF. Especially the way this teams players get injured. Be healthy, no trades until July. See where the team is then. No need to rush a trade for players like Duvall as they are signed for awhile
Idk, man. The Reds have no history of showing competency to handle a rotation. Winker needs to be there.
There a lot of teams that are “a few good arms away from competing for a wild card spot! ” lol
Winker
Peraza
Votto
Suarez
Schebler
Senzel
Barnhart
Hamilton
I would hit Suarez two, but there is no way in hell the Reds doing anything that progressive. Senzel would be at 2nd in this scenario. I hope to see this lineup by June.
Desclafani
Castillo
Romano
Bailey
Stephenson
Finnegan
Iglesias
Hughes
Shakelford
Lorenzen
Peralta
Reed
Reed sucks. Period. No more than a AA relief man
Peraza has to greatly improve to bat #2. Also, I see there is no Duvall who would they trade him for? I think Reed will never amount to anything and I think one guy missing in your Pen is Quackenbush, a spring training invitee.
I’d like to see the Yankees take a shot and add votto and ingelias. I’m sure Cincinnati would love to dump the salary and we certainly have the prospects. Maybe Frazier bird and a few other guys could get it done?
No.
Gotta love the yankee fans.
Cincinnati isn’t going no place why not shed some salary and rebuild?
They are only a few arms away from competing.
They just went through a failed rebuild they will not do that
With neither the prospects nor the cash to be able to acquire them.
They are going nowhere
Yup ! They ONLY have to add 5 starters
and 7 bullpen arms
For real. Why do people still mention trading Joey Votto? What part of “full no trade clause and no intention of waiving it” don’t they get?
Dear all Yankee fans the Yankees want and will stay below 197 mil this year. They can’t do that by picking up any players who make 20+ million. This will allow them to go after the big free agents next year.
I don’t see why they can’t do both? Who cares about the salary tax just pay it and move on. They could create a dream lineup by trading for votto then signing Machado and\harper. This is what the Yankees are we are a juggernaut. They need to go all in and trade for votto.
Votto will end his career in a Reds uniform and their FO will be happy to let it happen. Even if they win 50 games in a season they wouldn’t think to trade him and he wouldn’t waive his NTC. You’re barking up the wrong tree there.
That’s a 300 million dollar roster.
Easy to say when it’s not your money.
Thank you
Google how many times Votto has said “I’m not waiving my no trade.” Please.
“pepesilvia13 hours ago
I’d like to see the Yankees take a shot and add votto and ingelias.”
Gleyber Torres, Estevan Florial, Miguel Andujar, Domingo Acevedo and Freicer Perez.
Doesn’t matter cause Votto won’t allow it
LOL
Barnhart is a good catcher but he is light hitting ie no power. I can’t see it ending well if u have Barnhart, Hamilton , peraza and pitcher in same line up. That’s a good #8 and 3 #9 hitters
And there is no way that mahle should be left out of the rotation (except for extra year of control). All he has done is dominate every stop of the way.
Valid point, but they are a mid-market team. They have no other options.
One of the great things Barnhart has to offer offensively, though, is that he is a switch-hitter. That is rare for a catcher.
Homer Bailey is the worst contract in all of baseball
Check with the Angels on that one, dude.
Miggy would like a word.
Not even close
Prince Fielder says hi
Josh Hamilton was just seen “LHAO”……..
Fielder
and Hamilton are no longer playing! So….
Jacoby says “you’re letting me off the hook?”
I would say Bailey’s deal places in the top 10 all time albatross contracts. Pablo Sandoval, Vernon Wells, Barry Zito, and Josh Hamilton are just some names who come to mind whose contracts were arguably worse than Bailey’s.
See; Heyward /Cubs RF
Astick- they absolutely have options
They have surplus right now- I’d trade Hamilton, Duvall for sure.
I’d try to dump Bailey and mesoraco (I understand they prob need to perform for first half to do that)
I’d explore trades of Iglesias (as volatile as RP arms are with injury) I’m not sure the 60 innings he gives u justifies keeping him when u could get a haul for him
And explore trading Suarez- he’s becoming an all-star caliber. And I think the Reds could get a ton for him
And the Reds have a lot of depth in minors. Take advantage of Marlins situation and offer 4/1 for yelich.
The Reds have nothing offensively in the minors. Nothing
Embalmer- that’s crazy talk. Might have the best offensive prospect in senzel. And have Taylor trammel another top prospect
And others.
Nick Senzel is probably an Overall Top-10 Prospect. Top 20 for sure. The Kid has been highly touted and is a 3B.
Fangraphs has him at #12, but I’ve seen him inside the Top 10 on other lists. Lists are very subjective, of course.
If you execute these trades, who is hitting in the bottom of the order is immaterial. Their team would be worse off than my proposed scenario.
Definitely not. Offensively winker would be an immediate upgrade from Duvall. Senzel will give u at least what Suarez gave u. And Hamilton was the worst offensive player in baseball- anything would be an upgrade.
Losing Iglesias would be tough- but I assume what u received back in trades would be an overall positive net.
I still see the Giants and Reds eventually coming together on a deal for Hamilton. It just makes too much sense for him at AT&T with his defensive prowess. I’d still wait it out though so their not giving up an already thin minor league system.
Helio Ramos can’t be involved in any trade plain and simple!
Problem is besides Ramos what else do they have to make it worth while?
They have some pitching, even if it’s not top notch plus I bet there are some guys that the Reds like that the Giants drafted last year they could work into a deal.
Since Hamilton is a defensive player only, Duggar makes more sense. Much cheaper, same defense, and more offensive upside.
this!
If I’m reds I keep my offer for Ramos. And I offer Hamilton and a minor league OF (Aristites Aquino)
Never happen. Ramos is being labeled the next Giants savior. Hamilton is a terrible hitter who will only slow down as he ages. Why the Giants don’t just sign Dyson is beyond me.
I don’t get Votto. All players should want to compete for World Series title. He has no chance for a very long time. One would think he would want out.
He must be a Cavs season ticket holder.
He would accept a trade to the Yankees no question about it.
Except for the fact that he said he doesn’t want to get traded
Yeah well if they trade him he’s not gonna have much choice now is he?
He has ALL the choice.
Full NTC that he said he won’t waive.
Ha.
What about full no trade do t you get? Plus he had said numerous times he doesn’t want to leave! At all! Period.
And why is that? Cause everyone loves the Yankees right. He would probably go to Toronto before New York. Keep dreaming.
Yeah you’re out of your minds.. Toronto is a perennial bottom feeder the Yankees are a classic household name. The blue Jays are awful and have an ugly stadium no way he goes there.
He’s from Canada. And he has a full no trade clause.
Lmao cause the Bronx is so beautiful
And how are they a perennial bottom feeder? They’ve been to the ALCS two of the past three years. If your argument is that a guy won’t go to a team because of the visual appeal of their stadium, I honestly don’t know what to tell you. I hope you’re trolling
Great point. You have really jumped into his mind. Keep going.
I have no idea either. He would rather be on a terrible team for years than a contender.
Obviously Votto feels happy and comfortable where he is. He gets paid millions upon millions of dollars to go outside and play. And read up on some of his struggles in the past. I don’t sense he’s the type of guy who places winning shiny things at the top of life’s priority list.
If this was twenty years ago, for every one comment wondering why he doesn’t want to change rings in a big market we’d have ten comments applauding his loyalty to the team and fan base that’s always supported him.
I’m not sure he could handle the media or pressure in a big market. In Cincinnati, he pretty much gets a free pass on everything, while collecting a huge paycheck.
I don’t understand it either. JV is the type of player who wants to stay out of the spotlight though. Putting him in New York would just not be a fit for him. I see him going to Toronto or another AL team once his contract is up with the Reds. He can DH and last well into his 40s, and maybe even have a chance at breaking into the 450 HR, 1,200 RBI Club if he does that. All I can say is I have given up on the thought of the Reds trading Votto for now. Most will admit that he’s been one of the only players that motivate our fans to keep watching the team. Plus, if he stays in Cincy for his entire career he’s probably a shoe in for the HOF, even if they don’t win a WS.
Joey votto the first or second player to play til he’s 50.
He plays 1st. It could happen lol. He’ll play DH in the AL when his contract is up.
Wouldn’t be surprised. He is already a very slow base runner so he can’t slow down much, and his plate vision won’t change as he gets older so he’ll maintain his insane OBP
His plate vision won’t change much? Yea, ok! Maybe, but I doubt it! One thing for sure that will slow down is his bat speed !
I see him definitely playing until he is 42+, longer if he eventually goes DH in the AL. His plate visions and ability to get on base seem to get better with age. I would love to see Votto last to 50. Would be amazing to see him break career records simply because of his longevity.
After pitching, the Reds need to make moving Mesoraco a priority.
He’ll be 30 in June……is owed over $13 Million for 2018….becomes a FA after 2018…..and has a total of 384 games played in his career.
How much of the $13 Mil will Cincy be wiling to play? 50%..???
He is too injury prone. I don’t think many teams would take on the liability. Like he says, Cincy would have to pay some of his contract. Even then, most teams would want to see him play healthy past the first month of the season to even remotely consider.
I could see the Reds asking for soto and kieboom. For Iglesias and mesoraco.
Mesoraco has little or no value until he shows he can play for more than a month and produce.
2017 Slash was .213/.321/.390/.711………with just 6 HR’s in 141 AB’s (56 games)
He’ll be 30 in June……is owed over $13 Million for 2018….becomes a FA after 2018…..and has a total of 384 games played in his career.
What is there To Like???
Well, I seem to remember he chopped down a tree and had bats made from that tree. There’s that…
LOL….he did get 12 bats made, but hasn’t used any of them yet.
Of course his land is in Punxsutawney……so if he see’s his shadow at any point……..he’ll miss another 6 weeks…..ROFL
I’m a Reds fan and that was hilarious
Mesoraco has put up good stats when healthy. But ya. I could see the Reds paying 4-6 million.
We already have a GG Backstop and somewhat consistent hitter in Tucker Barnardt. Reds should take what they can get for Mesoraco. Its sad but they may have to pay another team to take him.
Reds have already put out that Senzel will be playing other positions this spring, not Suarez
Let’s keep this going.