In shortstop Didi Gregorius and center fielder Aaron Hicks, the Yankees entered the offseason with two obvious extension candidates among their position players. But since the Yankees’ season ended Oct. 9, when the Red Sox bounced them from the ALDS, Gregorius underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Consequently, Gregorius will miss a large chunk of next season – his contract year – which could make him a more logical non-tender candidate than someone who’s up for an extension. That leaves Hicks, who’s also set to become a free agent a year from now. Considering Hicks’ production over the past couple seasons, perhaps the Yankees will work to prevent him from reaching the open market any time soon.
New York bought fairly low on Hicks in 2015, seven years after he went 14th overall in the 2008 draft, when it acquired him from Minnesota for backup catcher John Ryan Murphy. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted at the time that it was a surprise the Twins gave up on Hicks on the heels of an encouraging season. After Hicks was essentially a non-factor in a combined 150 games from 2013-14, he managed 2.0 fWAR in 97 contests and 390 plate appearances in his final season as a Twin. Along the way, the switch-hitter mixed approximately league-average offensive production (.256/.323/.398 with 11 home runs – good for a 96 wRC+) with quality base running (13 steals on 16 attempts) and plus defense in center field (two DRS, 6.9 UZR).
Upon landing Hicks – who was then 26 years old – Yankees general manager Brian Cashman declared, “We think Aaron Hicks is an everyday player.”
Cashman’s assessment looked wildly optimistic in Hicks’ first season in the Bronx, though, as he endured a horrid campaign in which he managed minus-0.2 fWAR in 361 PA. While Hicks was fine in the field, his offensive production plummeted. Among MLB hitters who racked up at least 350 PA, Hicks logged the eighth-worst wRC+ (64), batting a weak .217/.281/.336. And when he did get on base, Hicks swiped just three bags on seven tries.
To Hicks’ credit, he put 2016 way behind him in the ensuing season, even though he wasn’t a regular at the outset of the campaign. All told, Hicks slashed an outstanding .266/.372/.475 (126 wRC+) and offered easily above-average production against both right- and left-handed pitchers. He also registered solid power numbers (15 homers, .209 ISO) with appealing walk and strikeout rates (14.1 percent BB, 18.6 percent K), and chipped in 10 steals on 15 attempts. With another season of high-end defense factored in, the big-armed Hicks was worth 3.3 fWAR over 361 PA. The only problem? He went on the disabled list with an oblique strain on two occasions, thus limiting him to 88 games.
Until 2018, Hicks only had one 100-game season on his resume. However, Hicks is now coming off a career-best 137-game, 581-PA campaign in which he truly emerged as the full-time player Cashman thought the Yankees were getting when they landed him. Hicks essentially matched his 2017 rates and continued to fare nicely against both righties and lefties, but he did so over a much larger sample en route to a 4.9-fWAR showing. While Hicks’ slash line dropped a tad to .248/.366/.467, his wRC+ increased to 127. Statcast data backs up that production, as there was little difference between Hicks’ weighted on-base average (.360) and his xwOBA (.365). The 29-year-old helped the Yankees’ cause by mashing 27 homers with a .219 ISO, putting up terrific K/BB numbers (15.5 percent and 19.1 percent, respectively), stealing 11 of 13 bags and, per FanGraphs, contributing elite base running in general.
If there’s one statistical gripe with Hicks’ season, it’s that the advanced metrics didn’t particularly like his defense. After he totaled a whopping 15 DRS – including 12 in center – in 2017, he fell to minus-3 this past season. UZR (0.7) and Outs Above Average (minus-3) weren’t all that bullish on Hicks’ work, either. No matter, Hicks was still one of the game’s most valuable outfielders in 2018, and if the Yankees expect that to continue, they may try to lock him up in the coming months.
The question: How much might it cost New York to extend Hicks? Although several outfielders have signed extensions over the past couple years, none are that comparable to Hicks in production and/or his closeness to free agency. One possible exception is Charlie Blackmon, who – like Hicks now – had five-plus years of service time and was only a season away from free agency at this time a year ago. Blackmon ended up inking a five-year, $94MM guarantee to stay in Colorado last spring, when he had just begun his age-31/32 season. While Blackmon garnered that contract as a player who was a couple years older than Hicks is now, the former also offered a more accomplished track record. Blackmon was a two-time All-Star, a two-time Silver Slugger recipient, an NL batting champion and a past MVP candidate when the Rockies ponied up for him. Hicks doesn’t have any such honors on his resume.
If Blackmon’s deal is out of reach for Hicks, perhaps one of the recent big-money contracts given to a center fielder in free agency would be more realistic. A pair of center fielders – the Cardinals’ Dexter Fowler and the Brewers’ Lorenzo Cain – scored five-year contracts worth $82.5MM and $85MM, respectively, on the open market over the previous two winters. Fowler inked his pact on the brink of his age-31 season, while Cain signed his as a soon-to-be 32-year-old. Age is on Hicks’ side in both cases, then; however, like Blackmon, both Fowler and Cain had more established track records than Hicks when they signed, and it helped that they had multiple teams bidding on them in free agency.
While the comparisons are imperfect, Hicks’ reps at CAA Sports likely wouldn’t be out of their depth to push for an extension in the neighborhood of the contracts Fowler and Cain received. He still has another full season to play before he turns 30, after all, and is fresh off back-to-back years in which he was among the game’s premier center fielders. Whether the Yankees will consider an extension for Hicks this offseason is unclear, especially considering fellow outfielders Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Clint Frazier are under long-term control, and they may pursue Bryce Harper in free agency. For now, Hicks is projected to play 2019 for $6.2MM – a bargain in light of what he brought to the table from 2017-18.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
If he gets greedy, let him go.
Shall the Judge sing “New York New York” while watching the World Series at Fenway? Seems no matter what happens with baseball the Evil Empire always grabs the headlines with signing. I guess DiDi’s injury opens door for Marchado!
Lol that little song judge played really got the Red Sox fans mad
And motivated apparently. What time is your tee time?
I doubt a 108 win team needed that song to motivate them. It definitely didn’t help but a professional ball club doesn’t need any more motivation than the chance to win a W.S.
See if can get him for 5/70
I love his defense, his speed on the bases, and his ability to hit with good power from both sides. But if the luxury tax threshold becomes a hard cap for Hal & Co., I’m not sure this is where the Yankees will choose to lock up $$ when looking ahead to the big contracts they’ll soon want to hand out to Severino, Judge, Betances, & likely Sanchez. However, since the Yankees seem to value Hicks defense and switch hitting power so much, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them give him a contract similar to what Blackmon got last year. I’d call this a 50-50 toss up as to which way they go. This will be one “story” I’ll be paying attention to closely all winter.
Especially with his injury history. It is a valuable skill set but this has the potential to turn out ugly due to those injuries.
I agree. Hicks is a nice player, great arm, decent range, switch hitter with solid lefty power but much too much injury prone.
Who’s better on the market in the next two winters?
Yankees don’t sign players before they hit free agency. Hicks has definitely come into his own, but no way is he worth $70 – 80 million. Price gets that high, I’d say, ” See ya!”
He’s a top 5 defensive CF, who has a swing built for Yankee Stadium. His defense alone would be worth 1-3 WAR, and he’s an average offensive player with some pull power.
First off, the way stats are today measured can be screwy. While he may not have had his best year defensively, there is no way he’s a negative in CF. That said, with his injury and batting history, the contract comparisons are also nutty. In my eyes, at his age he’s a 3 – 4 year player at 8 -10m per.
All due respect, he has the 6th highest WAR (8.2) among CF over the last 2 seasons. The guys in front of him are Trout, Yelich, Pham, Cain and Blackmon. Factor in that he racked up that WAR while only playing in only 225 games in that span. All the top 5 guys played in 30-90 more games then he did. Health is an issue but he only missed 15 games last year. That’s not a big deal to me. The injury wasn’t related to the oblique injury that held him to 90 games in 2017. If he posts anout 4+ WAR in 2019 then he certainly would be worth 4/$60 mil at least.
He’s an all around solid player. 4/50 sounds reasonable.
There’s a really interesting kid that just reached AA at the end of the year. Dom Thompson-Williams. He’ll be 24 for the upcoming season, in 2018 he hit .299, had a .363 OBP, 22HR, and 20 SB, and is LH. He was drafted in the 5th round out of South Carolina in 2016. He plays CF right now, he’s advancing quick enough for a college player, and he could make an impact mid-year 2019.
Hicks perhaps on a 2-3 year deal, because Florial is also coming and plays CF.
The guy obviously quit on the Twins but it’s somehow their fault he decided to try once he got to NY.
He never quit. Silly comment. He was still developing and he’s a solid cf now but not a long term player for the Yanks.
You really come across like a simpleton.
I think you’re being way too generous.
Don’t they monitor internet usage in those group homes?
You trolls stick together. Saying Hicks quit on the Twins is ridiculous but I guess that’s too simplistic for you?
This guys a “simpleton” because he said a guy didn’t quit on his team? Wow, Bocephus must have some pretty damn high standards.
Thanks bro! I think it’s a troll group just countering anything and anyone they don’t like with nonsense. Cereal Famine is another one who just loves to argue and put people down just because……
Everyone who disagrees with you is a troll? Just the nature if this forum.
Not what I said! They didn’t disagree they are trolling, big difference.
Yeah because highly touted prospects earning that relatively minuscule league minimum don’t strive to succeed. I could see you saying that if he was given an early lucrative extension but not a guy making nothing. If anything, the Twins gave up and sold low on him.
Has arguably the strongest outfield arm in the majors. Elite defensive player. 105.5 MPH record on 4/20/2016. Didn’t seem like he slowed down, 2018; always fun to watch in OF.
This year was his best offensive season: .248 BA, .366 OBP, with 27 homers, 79 RBI, 11 steals, and 90 Runs scored in 137 games. He always gets overlooked, due to Yankees’ OF. Judge/Stanton. Hope they extend him, but prob wont.
mlb.com/news/yankees-aaron-hicks-throws-ball-1055-…
Arm may be strong Xab and usually good which is why I don’t understand the negative defensive numbers subjectively given but his throws are not always accurate and he also is known to occasionally throw to the wrong base. Both of those are fixible and he still rates above average in my book just not on top in the CF loaded AL East.
The guy started the year in the DL and missed a week at the end of the year because of he’s legs and was playing injured like Didi in the postseason. You can’t have a injury prone CF as it already was a dumb idea to get Ellsbury who never was healthy before that big contract.
Hicks also is streaking and can go a whole month without hitting and we need a more consistent hitter and who has better legs as the only reason he was playing in August was they were no one replace him when you can tell he was sore. I go year to year with him as he will get more hurt as he gets older. Clint has a concussion issue but this isn’t the NFL so its not a big deal and Clint is 23 and a former 1st rounder who doesn’t even have 100 at bats yet.. We need to see what he is as Hicks is just a guy who can give you a good year or 2.
Frazier can’t play CF…
2nd time we ever agreed.
Remember watching a NYY game and the YES broadcaster said “four tool player is still good!” Lol
And can’t stay on yhe field.
The Yankees would be absolutely ridiculous to non-tender Didi Gregorius just so they could pick up Machado. Didi is a much better defender than Machado, and his lefty power is built for Yankee Stadium. If they were smart, they’d go into arbitration with him and work out a short term deal, as a tryout. He shows the Yankees he can stay healthy, he could get a 5-7 year deal worth $80 mil. Machado has the superstar factor but he’s not worth it for the Yankees, especially with other positions they could upgrade.
For Hicks, I could see him getting a decent extension. I don’t think he’ll get anything like Cain or Fowler, but I could see a potential 5/$55-$65 mil deal. He’s still just 28, so he still has some productive years ahead of him.
This article doesn’t even mention the well known thing where the Yankees tend not to extend players (with some exceptions, of course.) I find that weird.
Bad idea locking up a centerfielder into his mid-thirties. Sure Cain looked great in his first year but he had multiple all star caliber years, was coming off one at 31, hits well enough that he could get by in a corner for his last couple of years, plays a lot of games, and has the x-factor leadership thing; he is not a good comp for what Hicks is/has been so far.
If Hicks would take something like 2/$35m in addition to the $6m or whatever his final arb year would be, I think that could work for both sides. Covers him in case he gets hurt or something, like triples his career earnings even after the arb year, and still lets him be a free agent at 32, same as Cain, Gordon, Werth, et al…they all got big contracts.
Obviously the Yankees would get good years of a good player at a decent price.
I wouldn’t be afraid to sign Hicks up to his 32/33 age. He’s a great athlete who might be coming into his own.
The Yankees robbed the Twins blind on that Hicks trade. Hicks is very good all round, and he’s only 29 next year, so he’s got 5ish years left before maybe declining. He will deserve 5/100 if he doesn’t get an extension and he repeats or bests his 2018.
Advanced defensive metrics are useless garbage.
Agreed. Too many experts in today’s game B-rar with too many new stat categories to justify their existence.
Unless he signs super cheap let him go in 2019. Too old, injury prone. NY has too many good young players to pay up for him.
Too old? He just turned 29. Yeezus that’s a silly statement. What other CF’s do we have younger than him? I’ll wait. He is easily the best option we have to play CF. Florial is likely 2 years away. Gardner isn’t as good as Hicks and is more expensive. I can’t imagine Hicks can’t be had for something like 4/$60 mil. I’ll gladly take my chances with him. In only 137 games he came close to posting a 30 hr + 100 BB season and considering a) his defense at a premium position. b) the fact that among the others mentioned (Judge/Stanton/Frazier/Harper) he’s the only one that should be in CF c) he’s better than every option available on the FA market in 2018 and 2019 d) He’s thrived playing in NY and has battled thru adversity in 2016 to become what he is today. He’s battle tested. e) He’s a switch hitter who had a .845 OPS vs RHP and hits as many homers on the road as he does at Yankee stadium. Rock with him in 2019 and if he has a similar year to 2018 then offer a 4 year deal in the $15 mil per range.
Sign Harper to play LF and if Florial increases his stock in ’19 or ’20 then deal with it if it happens. Mateo and Sanchez both wowed us with their prospect profile but neither have made an impact at the mlb level although Mateo still has time on his side. Mlb performance should trump prospect projection, especially when you have a youngish player like Hicks. He might be coming into his prime years.
Wait, Sanchez hasnt made an impact? A what? I know his 2018 was rough but he made a huge impact in both 2016 and 2017
(unless this is a different Sanchez?)
Hicks is one of the top 3 center fielders in the majors. Stud with a cannon for an arm. One the few 5 tool players in the majors. Give him whatever he wants.
LOL Judge Judy. I like Hicks but there suddenly are a lot of solid defensive CFers and his health history is such that his salary value seems limited. I’d be shocked if he got more that a 3 for $30m contract the way GMs and actuaries are valuing players.
Current GMs use advance metrics. Advance metrics show that despite only playing 205 games in 2017-2018 he ranked 6th overall among CF in WAR. That’s amazingly great. If you look further, he doesn’t have any dramatic LH vs RH splits nor was his power just a bi-product of playing at YS.
Keep in mind that Cashman is a straight analytics guy and he used those analytics to buy low on Didi, Hicks and Voit. Hicks’ performance has earned and justified Cashman’s support and nothing short of a horrible Bird like 2019 will change that imo.
Despite playing 205 games? A major consideration is whether he will stay on the field. I like Hicks but would not expect him to stay healthy for multiple consecutive years. Thus my original suggestion of 3 to 4 years at $8 -$10m. The lengthier the deal the less average value, as there’s a better chance he’ll miss significant time over the longer duration.
Didi is still a very obvious extension candidate. So is Hicks, of course. Both liable to get seven figures.
Are you sure theyre liable for seven figures? Idk, i was really thinking that theyd make 900k a year on a 20 year contract
And why wouldn’t the Yankees try to extend both Didi and Hicks this winter? It makes perfect sense, because they just reset their luxury tax, which means they’ll be paying a lower tax rate on these extension in 2019, than at any point in the future.
So why wouldn’t they give them a big raise now, instead of an even bigger raise next winter?
It of course still depends on whether the players are willing to sign a contract at market value, rather than get greedy, but they probably are. Who wouldn’t want to be part of the next Yankee dynasty?
Because according to all the Yankee fans out there, Torres is a top 5 defensive shortstops, so there’s no reason at all to extend Did. Idk about Hicks. Probably dreaming of a Stanton/Harper/Judge outfield?
”Because according to all the Yankee fans out there, Torres is a top 5 defensive shortstops, so there’s no reason at all to extend Did.”
Do u skip over my posts? Been begging the Yankees to extend Didi, the day before, and after his TJ Lol
Also other than your statement being completely false, Torres has absolutely nothing to do with this
*Your statement about all Yankee fans thinking Torres is a top-5 defensive shortstop.
DUDE… He hasnt even played SS in MLB..! (yet)
He’s never played SS for the Yanks? Lol. I don’t agree he is a top 5 defensive SS but you need to research because he has played some SS this past season.
At the game’s highest level, Didi’s more than held his own. Sample size to call him top-5? Was there ever a time you said to yourself: “Didi can’t handle SS.. Bring in Torres.”
No? Thought so.
I didn’t count minor the leagues, but 21 games is too small. Honestly, must’ve missed/forgot most if not all games Torres played SS, 2018! I’ll give you one thing, billy; Torres def plays better SS than 2B. Who do they sign to play 2B, as they shift Torres to SS, while Didi recovers? That is the question.
I would sign Hecheverria and Daniel Murphy. We can put Murphy occasionally at second and Torres as second when Hecheverria plays SS.
I would say Walker is a decent option too, I also think he might fair better if he was signed earlier this winter (Yanks signed him in March I think) and knows what his role would be headed into 2019.
Yanks have a policy of allowing their players to reach FA as opposed to extending them sooner. I understand they can absolutely outspend any team they want but I think it would make sense to do so now since we have a lot of young players who will be coming into their arbitration/FA years at relatively the same time (Sanchez, Judge, Severino, Montgomery (assuming he heals well), Bird (being optimistic) and Green. And then I think Voit (optimism on-going), Torres and Andujar are on the same schedule to reach FA in about 5 years too.
Hicks is gonna get paid either by the Yanks or another team. I wouldn’t give him a 5 year deal to be honest with you, I would offer a 3 year deal max. Yanks have Florial who they are very high on regardless of his last injury plagued season.
I could see the Yanks wanting to be a bit conservative on the years. However, Cashman has shown a knack for knowing which highly touted prospects to keep (Sanchez, Judge and Severino) and which they felt might not produce at the mlb level (Montero, Mateo).
Its prudent for the Yankees to let Hicks go through his final season of arbitration since it will be around $6M. There is greater downside for the Yanks than upside, frankly. Throwing around numbers of $80M is just too rich for me at the moment and he needs to have at the minimum, a follow-up season to 2018. Even if he goes on some type of absurd tear in 2019, the ceiling isn’t that much higher. What? He hits .280 with 30 homers and 90 rbis while playing stellar CF, he might squeeze another $20M or another year at that point. Or the Yanks waste $80M. Rather gamble having to pay $20M more in the future than $80M in the present if that makes sense.
Hicks has leverage; Yankees next best option is Ellsbury or Judge in CF. Any CF prospect is probably 2 years away, minimum. This would force New York to possibly deal for a controllable CF.
Love Hicks now but I don’t think he’s the long term guy in CF. I would imagine Florial will step in in a year or two
I’d much rather flip him for some pitching and get a short term CF option (lefty bat preferably) until Florial is ready to go.