Archives for 2019

Yoenis Cespedes Appears To Have Resumed Baseball Activities

By Jeff Todd | November 19, 2019 at 12:10pm CDT

In a since-deleted Instagram video posted by minor-league Mets coach (and long-time former big leaguer) Endy Chavez, rehabbing slugger Yoenis Cespedes is shown taking batting practice. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo covered things via Twitter.

While this fleeting glance at Cespedes doesn’t really tell us much, it’s the first meaningful look at his progress in quite some time. Serious heel and other leg injuries cost Cespedes huge chunks of the 2017-18 campaigns and all of 2019. All told, he has played in just 119 games since the close of his strong 2016 season.

Cespedes has continued to hit when available, and he’s still being paid quite handsomely for one more season ($29.5MM), so the club has an obvious interest in getting him back on the field. At times it seemed a late-2019 return might have been possible, but there was never anything close to a run-up towards the majors.

GM Brodie Van Wagenen seemingly downplayed the likelihood of a significant contribution in 2020 when he addressed the matter recently, saying that lacks “enough information to predict when [Cespedes is] going to be back.” Of course, there is one other way to read that. The Mets understandably don’t want to set expectations and surely also would like to keep things quiet when it comes to negotiating with rivals and free agents.

All of that is to say: if indeed Cespedes is presently capable of swinging the stick, even if in a limited BP setting, that seems to be good and rather notable news. As I noted in discussing the Mets’ offseason outlook earlier today, the complexion of the outfield could look quite a bit different if Cespedes is part of the picture — especially if he can show enough to be relied upon right out of Spring Training. It’s not hard at all to imagine rather significant impacts on the team’s offseason maneuvering based upon the status of Cespedes, though certainly the organization will need to be wary of presuming too much about his health.

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

By Jeff Todd | November 19, 2019 at 9:43am CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The needs are clearer than the means for the Mets as they enter a critical second offseason under GM Brodie Van Wagenen.

Guaranteed Contracts

Jacob deGrom: $130.5MM through 2023 (includes $20MM signing bonus, due in two installments on 1/2/20 and 1/4/21)
Robinson Cano: $81MM through 2023 (excludes $15MM of remaining obligations owed by Mariners)
Yoenis Cespedes: $29.5MM through 2020
Jeurys Familia: $22MM through 2021
Jed Lowrie: $13MM through 2020 (includes $4MM in remaining signing bonus obligations)
Wilson Ramos: $10.75MM (includes $1.5MM buyout on $10MM 2021 club option)
David Wright: $9MM through 2020 (excludes estimated $3MM covered by insurance proceeds)
Justin Wilson: $5MM through 2020

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Marcus Stroman – $11.8MM
Noah Syndergaard – $9.9MM
Steven Matz – $5.3MM
Michael Conforto – $9.2MM
Edwin Diaz – $7.0MM
Seth Lugo – $1.9MM
Brandon Nimmo – $1.7MM
Robert Gsellman – $1.2MM
Non-tender candidates: None

Free Agents

Aaron Altherr, Luis Avilan, Brad Brach, Rajai Davis, Todd Frazier, Donnie Hart, Joe Panik, Rene Rivera, Zack Wheeler (declined qualifying offer)
Juan Lagares (paid $500K buyout in favor of $9.5MM club option)

[New York Mets depth chart | New York Mets Nationals payroll outlook]

The Mets play in New York, as you may already be aware. But the club’s payroll in recent years has not quite matched its top-of-class market size … a fact you’re also likely familiar with if you’re reading this post. As we sit here today, the Mets are already committed to spending as much as or more than they have have in recent seasons, when they have seemingly operated with fairly clear budgetary restrictions.

So, the Mets are tapped out, right? They can try to move money via trades, but that would mean parting with useful players and/or prospects. Tapping into the talent pipeline would be awfully tough to swallow after having already cleared out some of the farm’s most promising youngsters over the past year in other swaps. It seems like a predicament.

Why, then, are we reading articles throwing around concepts of re-signing Zack Wheeler, landing a similarly spendy replacement, risking a good chunk of change on rehabbing reliever Dellin Betances, trading for Mookie Betts, etc? Does Van Wagenen have freedom to pursue such high-priced players or is he limited to value-for-value swaps that don’t add to the team’s existing payroll commitments?

There’s no answer here. It’s all a mystery. The team wouldn’t want the market to know its precise plans, so that’s sensible enough. But it makes it awfully difficult to assess the offseason possibilities and all but impossible to guess some of the key pieces that’ll be available to new skipper Carlos Beltran.

On the one hand, we’ve not been given reason to believe that the Mets organization is on the verge of a big payroll boost. The team seemed in position to do that sort of thing previously — on the heels of a surprise World Series appearance, say — and didn’t really surge in spending. On the other, Van Wagenen actually responded to questions about the $208MM luxury tax line in a manner that suggested it wasn’t completely absurd to ask about. His answer didn’t exactly indicate that the Mets would be ramping up to that level — “if the luxury tax threshold becomes something we have to consider, then we will talk about it at that time” — but the top baseball ops officer could have taken the opportunity to temper expectations and it seems notable that he didn’t.

While we don’t know for sure what financial means the Mets will have to address their needs, we do have a pretty clear idea of what the roster gaps are. And it’s also not hard to identify a few big-league pieces that could be utilized in lieu of prospects to help swing deals. First baseman Dominic Smith is the most obvious candidate to be moved after showing well with the bat but being eclipsed entirely by a large white bear (also known as Rookie of the Year Peter Alonso). And bat-first utilityman J.D. Davis could also be dangled in some scenarios. More on him below. We shouldn’t overstate the value of these players. Smith only had a brief showing last year due to injury; Davis rode a .355 BABIP. Both are limited on the basepaths and in the field. But they’re useful pre-arb performers with clear surplus value who’d hold clear appeal to a good number of rival organizations.

It’s also rather easy to see where the Mets could stand to improve. Let’s start in center field. With the end of the Juan Lagares era, and the failure of the other players brought in last season to supplement/challenge him, there’s a void up the middle. The preference is not to utilize Michael Conforto and/or Brandon Nimmo there, at least in a full-time capacity, so the optimal outcome is to secure the services of a full-time center fielder with a fall-back of getting a right-handed-hitting part-timer to platoon with those existing lefty bats.

Those two paths also play into the question whether Davis ought to be dealt or retained. If the Mets end up with a CF timeshare, then there should be more plate appearances left for Davis to pick up in the corners. But if the Mets find a regular to play in center, then perhaps Davis won’t have as many opportunities as might be preferred in the corner outfield. It’s easier to deal him in that case, perhaps even as part of the swap for the desired center fielder. The Mets could backfill with a low-cost, righty-hitting veteran to serve as a fourth outfielder … or try to dig up the next Davis in another trade. It’s worth pausing to note that Yoenis Cespedes remains a hypothetical candidate to return, though it remains utterly unclear whether and when that might happen. If the Mets have secret cause for optimism on Cespedes, perhaps that also tips in favor of a Davis swap.

So, the options in center … like many teams, the Mets make an ideal fit for Starling Marte of the Pirates. He isn’t cheap, but isn’t so expensive ($11.5MM in 2020 with an option for 2021) that the Mets can’t figure it out. The Bucs have previously chased after MLB-ready pieces rather than prospects, which suits the New York situation. We don’t know if the Pirates will deal Josh Bell, but if they do, Smith would make an awful lot of sense as a target. Trouble is, there ought to be rather intense competition on Marte. And there’s a new front office regime in Pittsburgh, with a shifting mandate that may favor more drastic action.

Rental piece Jackie Bradley Jr. will cost similarly in salary (a projected $11MM) and quite a bit less in return. It’s easy to imagine Ender Inciarte as a fit if the Braves go in a different direction … and decide to deal in their division. Perhaps Manuel Margot would be a nice compromise if something more can’t be done and the Padres decide to move on. He’s priced fairly ($2.1MM projected) as a platoon candidate with some hopeful upside remaining. There isn’t a regular option in free agency, unless you believe in incoming Japanese star Shogo Akiyama. He’s a left-handed hitter who doesn’t seem to have captured the Mets’ interest. Brett Gardner is likewise a lefty bat. The Mets could turn to Cameron Maybin or another righty-swinging part-timer on the open market.

That’s really the bulk of the work on the position player side. Most of the 4-through-6 infield time ought to be accounted for between Jeff McNeil, Amed Rosario, Robinson Cano, and Jed Lowrie — at least, supposing Lowrie can come back from the mystery issues that derailed his first season in New York. Luis Guillorme represents a utility option. Davis can play third base if he remains on hand, though metrics (DRS, especially) have panned his work there. It’s worth noting that top prospect Andres Gimenez is on the rise. He’s just 21 years of age but could crack the majors if he makes strides at Triple-A and there’s a need. You can certainly imagine a bit of supplementation for this group, perhaps in the form of minor-league signings, but the Mets can be rather confident in what they have.

It’s debatable whether that same confidence ought to extend behind the dish, where veteran Wilson Ramos remains a capable hitter and questionable defender. The opposite is true of reserve Tomas Nido. Van Wagenen has indicated he’s not inclined to pursue a major shakeup at the catching position — “we expect to go into the season with Wilson Ramos as our guy” — but will be “in the market looking for backup options.” The Mets could revisit talks with Yasmany Grandal after just missing him last year, but that’d be quite a surprise given those comments and the other, more pressing needs. Expect the Mets to look at the many lower-cost veterans available this year to shore things up behind the plate.

If it was as simple as adding a center fielder and a few complimentary pieces, the budgetary constraints wouldn’t be as worrisome. But the Mets also need arms. The starting staff has four pieces in place but needs several more, particularly given the health scares that some members of the group have had in recent seasons. It’s quite unlikely that the Mets will lure Wheeler back or replace him with an equivalently valuable player — again, unless there’s a much bigger budget to work with than we know. Van Wagenen had names to cite when asked recently about rotation depth. And to be sure, hurlers such as Chris Flexen, Walker Lockett, Corey Oswalt, and recent first-rounder David Peterson do represent near-term options. But it’s tough to rely upon those hurlers for significant contributions, particularly with a full rotation spot as yet unaccounted for. There has been some talk of stretching out Seth Lugo (and also Robert Gsellman), but it seems likely the team will hope Lugo can reprise his excellent relief work from 2019.

Van Wagenen knows that, which is why he has cited a need to improve in the rotation. It’s likely the Mets will try to land multiple pitchers capable of gobbling up innings. New Jersey product Rick Porcello would be the sort of durable bounceback candidate who’d make sense, though he doesn’t figure to be particularly cheap. There are options at every price point on the market this year. No doubt the Mets will be among the many teams prowling patiently as a high-volume class of free-agent starters seeks contracts.

The pen is obviously a need as well. Last year’s unit was one of the worst in baseball. There’s not much choice but to hope that Edwin Diaz figures things out. He could push Lugo back into setup duty with a big spring. Those two hurlers and lefty Justin Wilson will likely make up the key late-inning trio. Jeurys Familia is also going to be given every chance to find his form, though he’s likely destined for a lower-leverage spot to begin the year. Robert Gsellman is another hurler who is looking for redemption. Among the depth options, Paul Sewald stands out. He doesn’t get many swings and misses but got solid results in a brutal Triple-A environment and turned in a 22:3 K/BB ratio in his 19 2/3 MLB innings.

There’s certainly room to improve here. You could argue for two significant additions. But the budget crunch will make it tough to take risks in this area. It’s understandable that some fans would like to see New York native Dellin Betances make a dramatic cross-borough move. But if dollars are tight, that’s a big risk to take. A return for Jersey boy Brad Brach, who was solid late in 2019, would seem more realistic. Fortunately for the Mets, there’s an abundance of solid relief arms that should be available for fairly modest commitments.

In MLBTR’s ranking of the top fifty free agents, we guessed the team would come away with a fifth starter (Ivan Nova) and useful veteran reliever (Craig Stammen). New Yorkers were not especially excited by this — though, to be fair, they were much more upset at our equally ho-hum predictions for the Yankees. There’s no question the Mets can and quite arguably should do more. It’s a tough division, but they’re trying to compete and the window is certainly open. And, yeah, it’s New York.

Substituting out Nova and Stammen in favor of Cole Hamels and Will Harris just might make the difference … and would almost certainly cost an extra $12MM or more in 2020 salary alone. Bringing back Wheeler and adding multiple relievers would be even better … and yet more expensive. We just don’t know how the organization will behave this winter. But we’ll soon find out.

Orioles Notes: MASN, Elias, Bundy

By Jeff Todd | November 19, 2019 at 6:47am CDT

The Orioles have lost another legal ruling in the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network saga that never ends. As conveyed through an AP report, the New York trial court has reaffirmed its major recent decision upholding an arbitration award in favor of the Nationals, who have sought for years to force the O’s-controlled MASN to pay more for their television rights fees. It’s time for the Baltimore club to pony up some long-awaited payments to its southern neighbor, the court ruled, with interest now running on the balance due. This doesn’t end the matter — the O’s can still pursue recalculation of the profit tabulations, appeal these trial court rulings, and/or fight the next market re-set period — but it does mark another step towards final resolution.

MLBTR Poll: Josh Bell’s Future

By Connor Byrne | November 19, 2019 at 1:45am CDT

The Pirates have a new general manager in Ben Cherington, whom they officially introduced as Neal Huntington’s replacement Monday. Pirates owner Bob Nutting indicated then that the Pirates, a few weeks removed from a 69-win season and their fourth straight year without a playoff berth, don’t regard anyone on their roster as untouchable. Even before Nutting made that revelation, many considered high-profile Pirates such as Starling Marte, Chris Archer and Keone Kela as trade candidates. But in the wake of Nutting’s comments, there’s an even bigger name in the mix: first baseman Josh Bell.

Would the Cherington-led Pirates dare shop Bell, who has arguably emerged as their first franchise player since the Andrew McCutchen era came to an end after the 2017 season? Bell, like McCutchen, is a homegrown Pirate made good. A second-round pick of the Pirates in 2011, Bell debuted in 2016 and posted mediocre numbers (relative to his offense-driven position) during the first three years of his career. But the switch-hitting Bell broke out this year during an All-Star season in which he slashed .277/.367/.569 with 37 home runs and 116 runs batted in – an impressive amount even if you regard RBI as an antiquated statistic.

So what’s the problem for Pittsburgh, which seems to have a real building block on its hands at first? As is often the case, it’s about the money. The 27-year-old Bell’s projected to make an affordable $5.9MM via arbitration in 2020, though he has just two more seasons of arbitration control thereafter. And considering their current state, it may be unrealistic on the Pirates’ part to expect they’ll turn back into contenders during Bell’s remaining arb years.

The Pirates could extend Bell in that time span and retain him for the long haul, though as of July, super-agent Scott Boras didn’t sound optimistic about a new deal coming together. Boras took aim at the Pirates for not showing a willingness “to go out and invest in a great young player for a long time,” also criticizing the team for a payroll that has barely climbed (relative to its profits) across the past two decades.

It’s hard to argue with the opinionated Boras regarding the Pirates, especially considering they still haven’t signed anyone for more than the $60MM extension they gave former star catcher Jason Kendall back in November 2000. Bell would likely rake in more on his next pact, but should Pittsburgh make an aggressive push to lock him up at this point? Should the team simply keep Bell and continue going year to year with him? Or maybe now is the time to trade Bell, who’s more appealing than all free-agent first basemen on the open market.

(Poll link for app users)

Trade Candidate: Miguel Andujar

By Connor Byrne | November 18, 2019 at 11:49pm CDT

The Yankees entered the 2019 season expecting Miguel Andujar to continue establishing himself as one of the best young third basemen in baseball. It wasn’t an unrealistic thought on the Yankees’ part, as Andujar was then just several months removed from a 2018 rookie campaign in which he posted outstanding offensive numbers and seemed capable of hitting a double at will. But this past season ended up serving as a massive disappointment for Andujar, who battled right shoulder problems from the outset and barely factored into the Yankees’ 103-win outburst.

Andujar, owner of a sparkling .297/.328/.527 line with 27 home runs during a 606-PA rookie showing, fell from grace this season over 49 injury-affected trips to the plate. The 24-year-old batted a horrid .128/.143/.128 without a homer, and now it’s fair to wonder if he has walked to the plate as a Yankee for the last time.

General manager Brian Cashman has always advocated for Andujar, and that remains the case, but the executive revealed last week that Andujar – even after a nightmarish season – continues to garner plenty of trade interest. Cashman could easily swat away Andujar suitors, as he has consistently done, but unlike last winter, it wouldn’t be out of bounds to wonder whether the Yankees still have a place for him.

When Andujar’s shoulder troubles put an end to his 2019 in mid-May, there was panic because it didn’t seem the club had an obvious replacement on hand. But it turned out the little-known Gio Urshela was more than up to the task, as the 28-year-old slashed a jaw-dropping .314/.355/.534 and swatted 21 HRs with 3.1 fWAR over 476 PA. Was it a fluke from someone who had never even hit much in the minors? Perhaps. However, when Cashman was discussing the Yankees’ third base plans last week, he suggested the position will remain in Urshela’s hands going into 2020. If Urshela continues clinging to the role, is there any other obvious place to put Andujar – whose defense at third has generated poor reviews thus far? It’s debatable.

Cashman has stated the Yankees are open to trying Andujar at first base or in the corner outfield, but the club also has plenty of talent in those areas. Luke Voit, Mike Ford and even the semi-forgotten, injury-riddled Greg Bird represent options there. Even if you’ve given up on Bird (and who could blame you?), Voit and Ford make for a pair of effective major league bats who are affordable. In the corner outfield, meanwhile, the Yankees have the superstar tandem of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton with some potential mix of Brett Gardner, Mike Tauchman and Clint Frazier as fallback choices. Would there be space for Andujar there? Maybe, especially as the free agent Gardner (if he re-signs) will likely be the Yankees’ go-to guy in center field with Aaron Hicks recovering from Tommy John surgery. And the Yankees could certainly rotate Andujar in at designated hitter, where they figure to also rely on a capable-looking cast consisting of Voit, Ford, Judge, Stanton, Frazier and catcher Gary Sanchez.

It goes without saying that the Yankees do not have to trade Andujar. He’s a potential offensive star who’ll make a relative pittance for the next couple years and isn’t even on track to reach free agency until after the 2023 season. But for a club that’s targeting starting pitching this offseason, it wouldn’t be stunning to see New York deal from a surplus (offensive talent) to land an arm(s) prior to 2020. If Andujar does indeed end up on the block, teams like the Pirates, Tigers, Rangers, Royals, Brewers, Marlins, Indians, Angels, Braves and Nationals are among those who could end up in pursuit. Cashman’s in the catbird seat, though, as he could simply retain Andujar in hopes of a bounce-back season if nobody makes an offer to his liking.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Notes: Ozuna, Braves, Marlins, Reds, D-backs, Souza

By Anthony Franco | November 18, 2019 at 10:55pm CDT

The Braves “have some interest” in free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna, hears Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Atlanta joins the previously-known Cardinals, Reds, White Sox, Rangers, and Marlins in the early sweepstakes for the corner outfielder. Atlanta already re-signed Nick Markakis, but he could be in line for a lesser role after a subpar age-36 season. Alternatively, Atlanta could move Ronald Acuña to center field full-time should they acquire another corner outfielder, be it Ozuna or someone else. Signing the 29-year-old Ozuna, a qualifying offer recipient, would cost the Braves their second-highest draft choice and $500K of international bonus pool space.

Nutting, Cherington Discuss Pirates’ Offseason

By Anthony Franco | November 18, 2019 at 8:48pm CDT

The Pirates have finally cemented a structure in the front office, having officially hired Ben Cherington as general manager. While the club still needs to settle on a field manager, it can also turn towards restructuring a roster that endured a disastrous second half in 2019, both on the field and off. Cherington and owner Bob Nutting met with Pittsburgh media today (including Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic) to discuss the organizational outlook. As expected, changes figure to be in the works.

No player on the roster is off limits in trade, Nutting indicated. He’ll instead give Cherington free rein in player movement. As Biertempfel notes, that figures to be most relevant for the respective futures of Starling Marté, Keone Kela, and Josh Bell, all of whom are productive enough to catch other teams’ attention but are three or fewer years from free agency.

Marté and Kela, especially, figure to be bandied about the rumor mill in the coming months. The Pirates weren’t believed to be shopping Marté when the offseason began, but that always seemed likely to change and the club has since installed Cherington in place of former GM Neal Huntington. Kela, meanwhile, was seemingly part of the club’s fraught clubhouse that boiled over at season’s end. That said, he remains an extremely talented reliever (2.12 ERA in 32 appearances in 2019), so he figures to draw interest elsewhere.

A Bell trade, while perhaps not as likely, would certainly shake up the first base/DH market. The 27-year-old had a disappointing second half, but his full-season .277/.367/.569 slash line (135 wRC+) remained stellar. Neither scouts nor defensive metrics have ever loved Bell as a first baseman, but he certainly looks the part of a middle-of-the-order masher. Speculatively speaking, the Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox, Twins, and Nationals are among the dozen or so teams who would make sense as Bell suitors. After all, he comes with three seasons of team control and is only projected for a $5.9MM arbitration salary, so he could appeal to organizations in various markets and at different stages of the competitive cycle.

Does that mean the Pirates are destined for a full rebuild? The owner did let on that a change in the organization’s outlook may be necessary. “Shooting to be an 81- or 82-win team year after year is not going to be acceptable,” Nutting told reporters, including Biertempfel. “At the same time, 69 wins is never going to be acceptable. I don’t subscribe to (the notion that) a couple of 69’s leads to a winning team.”

There’s a bit of mixed messaging there, but Nutting’s disavowal of consistently fielding average to slightly above-average rosters and hoping things break right is noteworthy. Pittsburgh has, in the past, done just that, eschewing a full rebuild in hopes of remaining on the fringes of the race each year. That served the organization well from 2013-2015, when they ripped off three consecutive Wild Card berths. It has been much less effective in the four seasons since.

No one in the organization fully committed to a teardown, it’s worth noting. As would be expected, Cherington indicated a desire to get acclimated to his personnel before making any decisions. Among those aids will be assistant GM Kevan Graves, who will return in that position, per Biertempfel. Graves served as interim GM after Huntington’s firing and was in the running for the permanent position. Nevertheless, he’ll remain on hand in his previous role, unlike Kyle Stark, who was let go from his AGM job over the weekend.

With the front office turnover now complete, the Pirates’ on-field product will start to take shape. There are many ways this offseason can go, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in his Offseason Outlook, and it now seems that everything is on the table. The organization could be in for a drastic reshuffling in the coming months.

MLBTR Chat Transcript: 11/18/19

By Connor Byrne | November 18, 2019 at 5:59pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of Monday’s live chat with MLBTR’s Connor Byrne.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

By Jeff Todd | November 18, 2019 at 5:54pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

Right after wrapping up a dream 2019 season, the Nats are already in the midst of an offseason loaded with big questions and abundant possibilities.

Guaranteed Contracts

Patrick Corbin: $125MM through 2024 ($10MM deferred)
Max Scherzer: $70MM through 2021 (all deferred); $30MM in signing bonus payments payable in 2020 and 2021
Anibal Sanchez: $11MM through 2020 (includes buyout on 2021 club option)
Adam Eaton: $11MM through 2020 (includes buyout on 2021 club option; Nationals exercised 2020 club option)
Sean Doolittle: $6.5MM through 2020 (Nationals exercised 2020 club option)
Kurt Suzuki: $6MM through 2020

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Hunter Strickland – $1.9MM
Javy Guerra – $1.3MM
Michael A. Taylor – $3.25MM
Roenis Elias – $1.9MM
Joe Ross – $1.4MM
Trea Turner – $7.5MM
Koda Glover – $700K
Wilmer Difo – $1.2MM
Non-tender candidates: Strickland, Guerra, Taylor, Glover, Difo

Free Agents

Asdrubal Cabrera, Brian Dozier, Jeremy Hellickson, Daniel Hudson, Howie Kendrick, Gerardo Parra, Anthony Rendon, Fernando Rodney, Jonny Venters
Stephen Strasburg: opted out of remaining contract ($100MM through 2023)
Matt Adams: paid $1MM buyout in favor of $4MM mutual option
Yan Gomes: paid $1MM buyout in favor of $9MM club option
Ryan Zimmerman: paid $2MM buyout in favor of $18MM club option

[Washington Nationals depth chart | Washington Nationals payroll outlook]

Things can change quickly, eh? It wasn’t but a few months ago that the baseball world was shoveling dirt on the 2019 Nationals, with huge and unpredictable ramifications for the organization’s future sure to come. But the Dave Martinez-led troops got back on their feet, dusted themselves off, and ultimately made a stirring run through the postseason to claim a redemptive World Series title. And now, after briefly basking in the glow of that victory … the team’s three longest-tenured stars are free agents, along with a slate of other postseason heroes, contributors, and/or Baby Shark visionaries.

The Nats have never faced a crossroads like this, even when Bryce Harper reached the open market last winter. They’ll come to the intersection wearing a satisfied grin, but make no mistake: there are many difficult decisions soon to be made.

Fortunately, the Nationals have loads of payroll flexibility to work with. The club has carried one of the game’s heftiest commitment levels for the past several seasons, paying some luxury tax in 2018 and barely avoiding it in 2019, and could presumably again top $200MM in payroll in 2020. The Nationals enter the offseason with something like $80MM to $90MM of headroom (depending upon arbitration decisions) beneath the $208MM competitive balance tax line. That should give president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo an awful lot of options to consider. (He’ll also likely be negotiating his own new contract; his current deal runs through 2020.)

It all begins with Rendon and Strasburg, a pair of quiet, Scott Boras-repped stars who each turned in ~6 WAR campaigns in 2019. It was far from inevitable that either would reach free agency this year. Mutual interest in a deal prompted a long-running exchange of offers with Rendon, but never resulted in an extension. And the general consensus, until rather recently, was that Strasburg would be best served staying in his own previously inked extension with the Nats. While there’s some reason to think that each player would prefer to stay in DC, all else being equal, the cost to keep these players will be steep. MLBTR predicted that both would secure $30MM+ average annual values over lengthy commitments. The organization would reportedly prefer to wrap up its talks with these two players early in the offseason, allowing both parties to move on if it isn’t to be.

Should the Nats retain both of these familiar faces, they’ll have committed a big chunk of their spending capacity — but hardly all of it. If either or both players depart, the club will have more cash to spread around. But there are a few open-market alternatives that could cost just as much or even more. If Rendon takes off, the Nationals may look to Josh Donaldson as an alternative. The fiery veteran is not far off from Rendon in present on-field ability and won’t require as lengthy a commitment (or, likely, as big an annual salary). And the loss of Strasburg could lead the Nats to join the pursuit of Gerrit Cole, who’s likely to out-earn all other free agents this winter.

As things stand, we just can’t know how these major decisions will turn out. But they represent major offseason plot twists for these and other teams. An extra thirty or sixty million of spending capacity can open quite a few doors. Rather than trying to guess on Rendon, Stras, et al., we’ll run through the many remaining D.C. roster needs and think about players at different price points that could be fits.

Let’s begin on the position-player side. The Nats are crossing their fingers that Trea Turner will bounce back well from his recent surgery; he’s ensconced at shortstop. It’s mostly fixed in the outfield, where phenom Juan Soto and veteran Adam Eaton will flank Victor Robles. Half of the catching situation is accounted for with Kurt Suzuki. And … that’s really all that’s nailed down at the moment. That’s not to say that we would expect the Nats to have seven new position players on the active roster come Opening Day. But every other spot is at least up for grabs and susceptible to change.

The 3-4-5 spots are especially interesting. We’ve seen indications that Ryan Zimmerman could be slated to return at first base, but the club hasn’t moved to do so yet and would certainly be justified in exploring alternatives after he turned in an injury-limited, offensively marginal (.257/.321/.415) campaign. Top prospect Carter Kieboom could be ready for another shot at the majors after scuffling in an early 2019 look. He has a bright outlook with the bat and could be slotted in at second or third base. Jake Noll is in much the same place from a positional standpoint but doesn’t come as highly regarded at the plate. It’s possible he’ll be bumped from the 40-man rather than seen as a significant piece of the puzzle; the same holds for utility infielders Wilmer Difo and Adrian Sanchez.

It seems fair to presume the Nats will be add at least three players to infield mix. At first base, even if Zimmerman is brought back, he’ll be accompanied by a quality lefty bat. Platoon mate candidates include Adams, Mitch Moreland, Eric Thames, and the switch-hitting Justin Smoak. There’s a lot to love about the bat from Edwin Encarnacion, but he’s not likely to spend enough time in the field to fit on a National League team. It’s tough to identify any quality regular first basemen who’d figure to come available via trade unless the Indians make Carlos Santana available or the Pirates dangle Josh Bell. Perhaps Brandon Belt of the Giants could be an option. Brad Miller, who’s probably best kept at first but can fill in all over the field, could be an under-the-radar target.

Even if Kieboom will be relied upon for a major contribution at second base, there’s a need for a regular at the hot corner and a versatile reserve. Fortunately for the Nats, they’re well-positioned to take advantage of the market’s abundance of veteran free agents at second and third base. Mike Moustakas is the next-best option at third behind Rendon and Donaldson; he’s also now capable of seeing some time at second. Outgoing D.C. free agents Howie Kendrick, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Brian Dozier are all available, as are players such as Todd Frazier, Jason Kipnis, Starlin Castro, Jonathan Schoop, Eric Sogard, and Ben Zobrist (who was targeted by the Nats when last he reached free agency). The trade market isn’t loaded with especially appealing options, but could feature some high-priced veterans that might conceivably fit. Dee Gordon, Jurickson Profar, and Matt Carpenter could all make sense for the Nationals in varying ways. The versatile Whit Merrifield would be a perfect fit, though that’s true of other teams and the Royals don’t appear inclined to sell.

Some of those players would also be potential outfield contributors, which would be nice. The Nats could hang on to Michael Taylor and hope he can handle the fourth outfielder role, though his bat has just never been consistent. The left-handed-hitting Andrew Stevenson had a nice 2019 showing at Triple-A and could also be considered, but he wasn’t trusted with much time in the bigs and doesn’t really fit as a compliment to Eaton. So, where might the Nats fit into the free agent market on the outfield grass? Veterans such as Adam Jones, Hunter Pence, and Cameron Maybin could be considered. The Nats may also just bring in some minor-league free agents to compete for jobs and then adjust mid-season if there’s a need.

Behind the plate, there’s an argument for a relatively modest addition to share time with Suzuki. Jason Castro would make for a nice potential fit. Other left-handed-hitting backstop options are available in the form of Alex Avila and Stephen Vogt (along with switch-hitting old friend Matt Wieters, who doesn’t seem likely to filter back). The open market also features Travis d’Arnaud, Francisco Cervelli, Russell Martin, and Martin Maldonado, among quite a few others. The level of player the team will target could depend upon the degree of confidence in 40-man options Raudy Read and Tres Barrera. The former had quite a nice offensive campaign at Triple-A.

There is one more, yet more intriguing possibility: Yasmani Grandal. Interestingly, he’s a more accomplished hitter than any of the first base options on the open market this winter, so the Nats could conceivably utilize him in a ~50-50 timeshare behind the plate while also giving him time at first. Depending upon how things shake out, Grandal could continue to function in a split capacity or slide back into a full-time catching role once Suzuki departs after the season. It’s an intriguing possibility for a team that will have a boat load of free spending capacity and a need for star position-player talent if it loses Rendon.

Things are somewhat more straightforward on the pitching side. The Nats are clearly in the market for Strasburg or a replacement. For a team that once added Max Scherzer to an already-loaded rotation and rode its starting staff to a title this year, all bets are off when it comes to starters. Anyone and everyone is a potential target if Strasburg heads elsewhere. Even if he returns, the fifth rotation spot will be open for supplementation. Joe Ross, Austin Voth, Erick Fedde, Kyle McGowin, and perhaps Shannon Sharp and Wil Crowe (only the former must be protected from the Rule 5 draft) could battle for the job in camp with a minor-league signee or two. Or the Nats could plug in another veteran. It’s frankly impossible to rule out any single starter as a conceivable potential target.

The relief situation might be more interesting if there were high-end closers out there for the bidding. But with Aroldis Chapman and Will Smith both already locked up, the top available arm is the guy who gave up a monster home run to Kendrick in Game 7. Come to think of it, Will Harris is actually not a bad target for the Nats, who desperately need some added certainty after a season full of nail-biting relief appearances. Daniel Hudson could be brought back after his successful stint. He’s part of a pretty broad group of hurlers lined up behind Harris in the pecking order. If the team is inclined to roll the dice again after whiffing on Trevor Rosenthal, it could take a shot on Dellin Betances in hopes of landing on a late-inning ace to pair with Sean Doolittle. Supposing Roenis Elias can get back to form, there isn’t a particular need for a southpaw, so the Nats can focus simply on getting the best arms for the best price.

How many new pen arms do the Nats need? It’d make sense to secure at least two sturdy new options and perhaps add another if the club decides to cut bait on Hunter Strickland. But that really depends how the club feels about its existing arms, since it’ll surely be forced to shave a few players off of the 40-man if it doesn’t rely upon them. Several of the above-noted starters meet that description, as do some of the other uncertain relievers presently taking up roster spots. Austen Williams is coming off of a rough campaign, James Bourque has both an intriguing arm and a walk problem, and both Aaron Barrett and Koda Glover are major health risks.

So what’ll the Nats do to set the stage for an encore? It’s a question without anything close to a clear answer. All of the above possibilities and more are surely under consideration. Soto and Turner are extension candidates, too, it’s worth noting — with added onus, perhaps, if the organization says goodbye to Rendon, Strasburg, and Zimmerman. Even with all the disappointments now atoned for, the Nationals are perhaps entering their most free-ranging and interesting offseason under Rizzo’s helm. And he has already shown quite a penchant for surprise.

Yokohama BayStars Post Yoshitomo Tsutsugo

By Steve Adams | November 18, 2019 at 4:28pm CDT

November 18: The posting formally occurred today, meaning the deadline to reach a deal is December 19th, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).

November 15: The Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced Friday that they have posted slugging left fielder/first baseman Yoshitomo Tsutsugo for Major League teams (link via the Japan Times). He now has 30 days to negotiate with MLB teams willing to pay the BayStars a release fee that is dependent on the size of the contract he signs.

Tsutsugo, who turns 28 on Nov. 26, has been one of Japan’s most prominent sluggers for the past four seasons, hitting a combined .293/.402/.574 with 139 home runs, 116 doubles, five triples, a 15.1 percent walk rate and a 20.4 percent strikeout rate. His best season came back in 2016, when he launched a career-high 44 home runs and slashed .322/.430/.680. It’s worth noting that Tsutsugo’s 2019 season was his weakest of the past four (.272/.388/.511, 29 home runs) and saw his strikeout rate climb to 25.3 percent.

There’s little doubting Tsutsugo’s raw power, but his ability to handle increased velocity, make consistent contact and contribute on the defensive side of the ball in MLB are less certain. Listed at 6’0″ and 209 pounds, Tsutsugo doesn’t run particularly well, and although he’s spent some time at third base in his career, most scouting reports on him agree that he’s limited to an outfield corner or first base at this point. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen recently wrote of Tsutsugo that he’s a potential everyday player but one with “no margin for error because of defensive limitations,” noting that has questionable hands could make him a liability at first base. Sports Info Solutions’ Will Hoefer wrote in September that Tsutsugo has a plus throwing arm and “could be hidden in right field with strong positioning.”

The extent to which MLB clubs are sold on Tsutsugo’s defense will determine the interest in him. It’s easy to envision some NL clubs shying away — particularly those who already have a set first baseman locked into place. But Toronto general manager Ross Atkins has already acknowledged some interest in Tsutsugo, and the White Sox stand out as an obvious potential fit with both corner outfield and DH openings. Speculating a bit further, any of the Mariners, Tigers, Royals or Rangers could find a way to work him into a first base/DH/corner outfield rotation. The Marlins, with uncertainty at first base and in the outfield corners, are an on-paper fit in the NL. There’s certainly a case to be made that any rebuilding club could give Tsutsugo a look and hope to land a relatively affordable piece who can help turn things around or emerge as a trade asset.

Under the current posting system, a Major League team interested in Tsutsugo would owe the BayStars 20 percent of the first $25MM guaranteed to him, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM, plus 15 percent of any dollars spent north of $50MM. That release fee is on top of the guarantee itself. Contract options and performance incentives, once unlocked or triggered, are subject to a supplemental 15 percent release fee. For minor league deals, MLB clubs pay out 25 percent of the player’s signing bonus, and the player’s salary upon being added to the 25-man roster is subject to a supplemental posting fee.

Tsutsugo, who is being represented by Wasserman, has a finite free-agent window due to the 30-day nature of the posting system, so within a few days of the conclusion of next month’s Winter Meetings (from Dec. 8-12), we’ll know if he’s coming to MLB and where he’ll be playing.

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