3 Minor League Signings Helping Drive Rangers’ Offense
For Major League Baseball teams, there is essentially no risk in signing a player to a minor league contract. Cognizant of that, the Rangers were aggressive on the non-guaranteed market in the offseason, inking 20 players to minors contracts. Two months into the regular season, three of those players – Hunter Pence, Logan Forsythe and Danny Santana – have helped lead the Rangers’ offense to the game’s third-most runs (306) and a 10th-place ranking in wRC+ (103).
Pence, the most proven member of the trio, starred for much of his career with the Astros and Giants before recent struggles forced him to settle for a cheap pact with the Rangers. But the longtime outfielder looked done during the previous two years in San Francisco, especially when he hit .226/.258/.332 (59 wRC+) with four home runs and a .106 ISO in 248 plate appearances last season. To his credit, though, Pence spent the offseason working to turn things around, as he explained to Jessica Kleinschmidt of NBC Sports California in December. You may have scoffed at his efforts back then, chalking them up to a washed-up player grasping at straws, but it now looks as if Pence has discovered the Fountain of Youth during his age-36 season (Pence de Leon?).
Through 153 trips to the plate with the Rangers, Pence has slashed .295/.346/.619 with 11 homers and a .324 ISO. He has already given the Rangers 1.1 fWAR after combining for minus-0.2 with the Giants from 2017-18. Pence’s revival certainly doesn’t look like a product of luck or ballpark – there’s nothing abnormal in his batting average on balls in play or K/BB ratio, and he has logged far better numbers outside hitter-friendly Globe Life Park.
Pence is pulling more pitches, hitting more fly balls and making better contact, all of which has helped opened the door to his power resurgence, while swinging and missing less and chasing fewer pitches out of the zone. Pence’s average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives sits at a strong 96.6 mph, up from 91.5 in 2018, and his weighted on-base average/expected wOBA has spiked from .255/.267 to .401/.387. In the xwOBA department, Pence has gone from hitting like Joey Rickard to resembling Juan Soto. It’s an amazing one-year turnaround.
If there’s one knock on the 2019 version of Pence, it’s that he has largely been limited to the designated hitter spot at his advanced age. Forsythe, on the other hand, has spent the season in the field, registering most of his appearances at first base but also playing at least five games at shortstop, third and second. Now 32, Forsythe was one of baseball’s most valuable second basemen with the Rays from 2015-16, but he began falling off the next season and then cratered last year between the Twins and Dodgers. It looks as if Forsythe’s back after joining Texas on a deal in late February, though. Like Pence, a fellow right-handed hitter, Forsythe has offered better production outside of Arlington while posing a legitimate threat against pitchers of either handedness.
Forsythe has opened his Rangers career with a line of .309/.414/.485 (136 wRC+) and 1.2 fWAR in 163 attempts, far outdoing the minus-0.2 he posted in that category last season. An unsustainable .406 BABIP has aided Forsythe’s cause, but he has made real strides otherwise. While Forsythe’s power hasn’t been sensational (three homers, .176 ISO), he’s well ahead of his paltry 2018 output in that regard (two HRs, .059 ISO in 416 PA). As with Pence, a greater emphasis on pulling and elevating the ball has led to Forsythe’s uptick in the power department. His average exit velocity has climbed from 89.6 mph on liners/flies last year to 92.8 this season. Forsythe’s also swinging at far fewer pitches than ever outside the strike zone. Those factors have assisted in a strong .390/.362 wOBA/xwOBA, an enormous step up from the .274/.277 Forsythe recorded in 2018.
And then there’s the 28-year-old Santana, who was a 3.9-fWAR player with the Twins during a 430-PA debut in 2014. Until this season, that looked like a total fluke (and perhaps it still does). Santana combined for minus-2.3 fWAR from 2015-18 with the Twins and Braves, though he’s back above water this year. Granted, with a 0.6 fWAR over 125 trips to the plate, Santana’s no world-beater. Still, that’s more than the Rangers could have reasonably expected when they took a flier on Santana in December. Since then, the switch hitter has slashed .296/.339/.478 (107 wRC+) with four HRs and six steals in 125 PA, also showing off his defensive flexibility by appearing multiple times at first, second, short and in center field.
Santana, however, could have a tougher time than Pence and Forsythe maintaining his numbers. In fact, they’ve already started to drop over the past month. The fact that he’s running ugly strikeout and walk rates (4.0 percent versus 29.6) and enjoying a .400 BABIP doesn’t offer a ton of hope going forward. Beyond that, Santana’s struggling against left-handed pitchers and hitting noticeably worse on the road. That said, there’s little difference between Santana’s wOBA (.347) and xwoBA (.341).
Should Santana continue to impress the Rangers through the season, they’ll have a chance to keep him via arbitration for the next two years. Otherwise, they could easily say goodbye to him. Meanwhile, Pence and Forsythe – two impending free agents – could either stick with the surprising Rangers (27-27) through the season if they’re in contention or emerge as summer trade chips if the team falls out of the race. Texas is in a win-win situation with all three of these minor league pickups, which is surely what general manager Jon Daniels hoped for when he added them over the winter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Luke Weaver Will Attempt To Rehab Through UCL Injury
The Diamondbacks announced that righty Luke Weaver has been diagnosed with an injury to his right ulnar collateral ligament and flexor pronator but will not undergo surgery. Instead, he’ll “be treated conservatively.”
Weaver and the D-Backs did not arrive at this conclusion without quite some thought. He was checked out by four different physicians, per manager Torey Lovullo. The injury turned out to be rather significant — last we checked in, it had been labeled a forearm strain — but not quite bad enough to warrant a procedure that would likely have cost Weaver the remainder of this season along with a big chunk of 2020.
It’s obviously preferable to avoid Tommy John surgery whenever possible, since it’s a major procedure that isn’t foolproof and require a lengthy layoff. That said, there’s also some real risk in holding off when it may well be warranted. If a rehab approach fails to take, it can make for a delay that pushes back the ultimate return date.
Though it’s good to hear that the injury is on the mild side, there’s really no sugarcoating UCL issues. There’s enough time for Weaver to make it back to the mound this season, if all goes well in the healing process and there aren’t setbacks when he tries to ramp back up. But the injury will still rob him of a big portion of the present season and will hang over his head thereafter.
Weaver still holds plenty of promise. He boosted his stock after landing with the Snakes on the heels of a messy 2018 effort, opening the current season with 62 1/3 innings of 3.03 ERA ball while recording 9.8 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9. So long as he’s able to heal up, the 25-year-old should have many good years ahead of him. And the Diamondbacks have ample time to receive further production, as Weaver will be under team control through at least 2023.
Marlins Place Neil Walker On 10-Day IL
TODAY: As expected, this move was made official. Walker is headed to the IL and Riddle will take his roster spot.
YESTERDAY: Marlins infielder Neil Walker is likely headed to the 10-day injured list after suffering a right quad strain during today’s 3-1 loss to the Giants. As noted by FNTSY Radio’s Craig Mish (Twitter link), the Marlins seem to be preparing for a roster move by removing JT Riddle from tonight’s Triple-A lineup.
Walker suffered the injury while running out a grounder, and is still officially designated as day-to-day. As manager Don Mattingly told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s Wells Dusenbury and other reporters, however, “The way he [Walker] pulls up tells you it’s going to be a little bit” of time before Walker is back on the field.
Assuming an IL stint is indeed necessary, the injury interrupts what had been a nice bounce-back performance for Walker in the wake of a rough 2018 campaign. Walker simply never got on track last season, hitting just .219/.309/.354 (all full-season career lows) over 398 plate appearances for the Yankees. The 33-year-old inked a modest one-year, $2MM contract with Miami over the winter and was more than paying off that investment with a .295/.375/.443 slash line and four homers through 168 PA.
Some regression is inevitable given Walker’s .364 BABIP, though overall, the veteran is lining himself up as a candidate to be moved at the trade deadline, provided that his quad injury isn’t a long-term issue. Walker has played almost exclusively as a first baseman this season, though he offered much more versatility in 2018, making at least a dozen starts at first base, second base, third base, and in right field.
Phillies Place Zach Eflin On 10-Day IL
The Phillies have placed starter Zach Eflin on the 10-day injured list, per a club announcement. He’s said to be dealing with mid-back tightness.
Lefty Cole Irvin has been called up to replace Eflin on the active roster. He’s capable of working in the rotation or giving innings in a relief capacity. The club could reinstall Vince Velasquez in the rotation instead of Irvin, or the two could be utilized in tandem.
There’s no indication as of yet as to how long Eflin will be sidelined. His IL placement was backdated to May 28th, so he’ll be eligible to return as soon as June 7th.
The 25-year-old Eflin doesn’t sport dominating peripherals. He’s generating 7.0 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 while allowing 1.37 homers per nine and a 43.2% groundball rate. Apart from the stingy walk rate, those are all underwhelming figures. That hasn’t stopped Eflin from turning in excellent results. He has contributed 65 2/3 innings of 3.02 ERA pitching in 11 starts.
Rockies Option Kyle Freeland
The Rockies have optioned down struggling lefty Kyle Freeland, per a team announcement. Also headed to Triple-A is outfielder Yonathan Daza, with the team bringing hurlers Chris Rusin and Jesus Tinoco up to the active roster.
It’s a rather stunning move as regards Freeland, who finished fourth in the National League Cy Young voting last year. While it is no doubt hard to drop such a player down, the club could no longer look past his more recent issues.
Through a dozen starts this year, Freeland has managed only a 7.13 ERA in 59 1/3 innings. Though he’s still generating similar numbers of strikeouts (7.4 K/9) and walks (3.8 BB/9) to his 2018 showing, opposing hitters have teed up a league-high 16 long balls against him.
Freeland never seemed particularly likely to repeat his surprising sophomore campaign, as ERA estimators took a much dimmer view of his effort than his 2.85 ERA suggested. But the 26-year-old seemed likely to be a quality rotation piece for years to come.
There’s no glaringly obvious explanation for the downturn. While he has bumped up his swinging-strike rate a bit (9.0% to 10.6%), Freeland has given up much better contact when it has been made. Batters have doubled their barrel rate (to 10.7%) and jumped to 35.5% hard contact. Freeland has been abused in particular at Coors Field (9.31 ERA), the complete opposite from 2018 (2.40 ERA). He’s sitting at a .287 BABIP-against, right where he was last year (.285). There has been a change in sequencing fortunes, as Freeland has dropped to a 62.0% strand rate after sitting at 82.8% in 2018.
Freeland, the former eighth-overall draft pick, had accrued two full seasons of MLB service entering the present campaign. He’ll need to make it back to the majors in 2019 in order to reach arbitration as a Super Two or 3+ service-class player next fall. The team had indicated some pre-season interest in a long-term deal, though talks never seemed to get going in earnest and surely won’t now unless and until Freeland gets back on track.
Cardinals Place Yadier Molina On 10-Day IL, Promote Andrew Knizner
The Cardinals announced today that catcher Yadier Molina is headed to the 10-day injured list with a thumb tendon strain. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by Andrew Knizner.
It’s not clear as of yet how long Molina will be down. He’s only slashing .265/.294/.397 at the plate, but remains a highly graded pitch framer and unquestioned veteran leader. Going without Molina even for a short stretch could hurt the already scuffling Cards.
This move opens the door for increased action for Matt Wieters, who has turned in good offensive results thus far in limited opportunities. Backing up Molina generally doesn’t make for much playing time. Now, he’ll have at least a bit of a window to expand his case for a larger chance when he reenters the free agent market next year.
That’s not to say that the St. Louis club will just turn over the position to Wieters. This is also a nice chance for the club to give some looks to Knizner, who’s an increasingly interesting prospect and potential long-term replacement for Molina.
A former seventh-round pick out of N.C. State, Knizner has turned in consistently strong offensive numbers on his march through the Cardinals farm system. This year, he’s slashing a healthy .286/.355/.450 with five home runs in 155 plate appearances.
It seems likely the Cards will continue to lean on Molina and Wieters for the duration of the present season once the former is back in action. But Knizner could force his way into the club’s 2020 plans, perhaps serving as Molina’s understudy before taking over the primary backstop role as soon as 2021.
Rangers Select David Carpenter
The Rangers have selected the contract of righty David Carpenter, per a club announcement. He’ll take the place of outfielder Zack Granite, who was optioned back.
Carpenter will see MLB action for the first time in quite some time. He last appeared with the Nationals back in 2015, with health problems halting what had been a productive career.
After some indy ball action and a Driveline makeover, Carpenter earned a shot with the Rangers this spring. The 33-year-old has turned in 15 1/3 innings of 1.76 ERA ball thus far at Triple-A, allowing just ten hits and posting a strong combination of 17 strikeouts and four walks.
Reds Place Robert Stephenson On IL, Activate Zach Duke
The Reds announced today that they have placed righty Robert Stephenson on the 10-day injured list. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by southpaw Zach Duke, who is back from an IL stint for a right calf strain.
Stephenson is said to be dealing with a cervical strain. There’s really no indication at this point of how long he might be sidelined. Hopefully, it’ll only require a short bit of rest.
It’s unfortunate to see a health issue arise now for Stephenson, who has finally found something at the MLB level at 26 years of age. The former first-round pick has largely struggled in prior opportunities.
Stephenson is only carrying a 3.96 ERA in 25 innings this year, due in no small part to a low 58.6% strand rate. But he has shown signs of becoming a dominating reliever.
Moving to a full-time relief role has worked out quite nicely. Stephenson isn’t showing a huge fastball velocity jump, but he has all but shelved his change-up and drastically increased the usage of his slider. He now hucks it in with spin on over three of every five pitches.
Those changes have resulted in a hefty 21.1% swinging-strike rate, which Stephenson has converted into 12.6 K/9 while permitting a palatable 3.6 BB/9. Statcast calculates that he’s allowing just 28.6% hard contact.
Also heading onto the active roster for the Reds is lefty Wandy Peralta. There was another opening when Lucas Sims was optioned down after his spot start yesterday. The team also shifted starter Alex Wood to the 60-day injured list to make 40-man room for the claim of R.J. Alaniz. That’s a paper move regarding Wood, since he has already missed more than the sixty day minimum.
Rays Designate Erik Kratz, Activate Mike Zunino
The Rays announced that they have designated catcher Erik Kratz for assignment. His roster spot will go to fellow backstop Mike Zunino, who has been activated from the injured list.
Kratz turns 39 in mid-June and still hasn’t topped a thousand career MLB plate appearances, but he has carved out a second act as a trustworthy journeyman reserve. Unfortunately, he has managed only five hits and two walks in 53 plate appearances this year with the Giants and Rays.
Zunino ended up missing three weeks with a quad strain. It may have felt like a lengthier duration than that for a Tampa Bay team that has received next to nothing offensively from the catching position. Zunino hasn’t exactly torn it up at the plate himself, turning in a familiar blend of good pop and unsightly on-base numbers. But he has been much more productive than Kratz and Travis d’Arnaud, who have stepped in amidst a dizzying run of injuries for Rays catchers. (Michael Perez and Anthony Bemboom are still on the IL.)
Royals Designate Chris Owings, Select Cheslor Cuthbert
The Royals announced today that they have designated utilityman Chris Owings for assignment. He’ll be replaced on the active and 40-man rosters by third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert, whose contract was selected.
Owings has just not found a groove in Kansas City since signing a $3MM deal over the offseason. The club will remain on the hook for the balance, less any pro-rated league-minimum earnings he’s able to record with another organization. Because he has more than five years of MLB service, Owings can reject an outright assignment and still keep all he’s owed.
The Royals obviously hoped for more out of Owings, who they targeted after he was non-tendered by the Diamondbacks. He’s striking out at an untenable 37.9% clip despite non-existent power. The resulting .133/.193/.222 slash line equates to an awful 7 wRC+.
With Owings departing, the Royals will welcome back a familiar face that failed to stick around previously. The 26-year-old Cuthbert has not produced much at all in his prior major-league opportunities, with a .252/.303/.378 slash over 830 plate appearances. He’s off to a nice start to the year at Triple-A, turning in .310/.370/.528 batting line and eight long balls across 219 trips to the dish.