Andrew McCutchen was the face of the franchise during his time with the Pirates, one of their best players ever, but it became obvious a couple years back they’d have to trade him. Entering 2018, McCutchen’s final year of team control, the low-budget Pirates knew they weren’t going to extend the outfielder. Consequently, Pittsburgh traded McCutchen to San Francisco for two prospects – right-hander Kyle Crick and outfielder Bryan Reynolds – as well as $500K in international bonus pool space. Crick debuted first with the Pirates and has been a quality piece of their bullpen, but Reynolds has been even an more impressive major leaguer thus far.
Reynolds was a 2016 second-round pick of the Giants who ranked among their top five prospects when they traded him for McCutchen. At the time, Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said of Reynolds: “Bryan is an effective offensive player that also plays quality defense. We look forward to working with Bryan to maximize his tools and help him become a quality well-rounded Major League player who can impact a game in many ways beyond his quality bat.”
That sounds right up to now. Since the Pirates promoted Reynolds to their roster April 20, the 24-year-old has slashed a tremendous .354/.407/.563 (157 wRC+) with five home runs in 171 plate appearances. As a member of the Pirates’ outfield, he has accounted for three Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-0.4 Ultimate Zone Rating in 335 innings divided between left and center. The package has been worth 1.7 fWAR, making Reynolds one of the most valuable first-year players in baseball. If not for Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., there would be far more NL Rookie of the Year buzz centering on Reynolds.
Many a rookie has fizzled after a blazing start, though, so it’s worth checking into the odds of Reynolds continuing to post above-average production going forward. The switch-hitting Reynolds was a .312/.373/.472 batter in 1,217 minor league plate appearances, which augurs well, though all but 57 of those attempts came in Double-A ball or lower. Reynolds always ran high batting averages on balls in play in the minors, but his .439 BABIP as a Pirate flat-out isn’t going to sustain itself. It ranks first in the league among those who have totaled at least 170 PA this year. Reynolds is on pace to accrue upward of 400 trips to the plate this season. Of hitters who amassed at least that many a year ago, no one put up a BABIP better than .375.
Going solely by BABIP, Reynolds’ production is going to fall. Reynolds also appears unlikely to keep up his .210 isolated power, considering it never rose above .188 during extended looks in the minors (and that occurred during a low-A stint in 2010). He’s also hitting the plurality of batted balls on the ground, which doesn’t bode well for power. That said, all hope isn’t lost for Reynolds. According to Statcast, Reynolds ranks closer to the top of the league than the bottom in expected slugging percentage (.439; 53rd percentile), weighted-on base average (.347; 62nd percentile), average exit velocity (90.1 mph; 69th percentile), sprint speed (73rd percentile), hard-hit percentage (47.4; 88th percentile) and expected batting average (.300; 92nd percentile).
So, while Reynolds’ .412 weighted on-base average ranks 14th in the league and puts him a few points above Nolan Arenado, he’s not that good. Reynolds’ xwOBA sits 55 points lower than his xwOBA, though it still places him a point or two above household names such as Alex Gordon, DJ LeMahieu and Jose Altuve. Like LeMahieu, Reynolds walks at a slightly below-average clip (7.5 percent). Meanwhile, Reynolds’ strikeout percentage (22.2) is a tad above average. Combining the two numbers makes Reynolds an average performer in terms of K/BB ratio. And the fact that Reynolds hasn’t yet shown any vulnerability from either side of the plate only makes him a more appealing offensive piece.
Reynolds’ bottom-line production through almost two months of his major league career paint him as a budding star. A peek under the hood suggests he’s not there yet, but Reynolds does look like a legitimate building block for the Pirates. He and Crick are amounting to a nice return for one year of control over McCutchen, whom the Pirates weren’t going to bring back. It’s a welcome bit of good news for a team that doesn’t appear to have made out that well in sending Gerrit Cole, Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow away in other key trades dating back to January 2018.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Reynolds has really been fun to watch. He’s a very smart hitter: hits to all fields, can work the count, has a great 2-strike approach. He’s going to regress some but I don’t think he’s going to be a flash in the pan either.
I gotta start watching his highlights, that’s awesome to hear.
Ohhh the dude is a solid hitter. His approach at the plate is well beyond that of a rookie, and it really bodes well for future sustainable success.
I also think this off-season he’ll put on about 5-6 pounds of muscle, and he will eventually hit for more power as well. I ultimately see him as a perfect 2-hole hitter, hitting .280, with a solid OBP, and with the ability to get 15-20 HR’s and Steals, that’s capable of playing above average defense in all three spots..
He’s an excellent get for the Pirates, and the Giants should have never traded him away!! He is definitely going to be a great centerpiece to build around with Bell, Marte, Newman, Diaz, Polanco, and Frazier moving forward. Pirates fans should be stoked about this kid, because he has a very bright future!!
In my opinion the Pirates have a bad recipe for Success. If owner wants to be thrifty then the Team needs to reevaluate their talent evaluators. Secondly, the coaching staff needs to create a winning culture, demand excellence on the field in minors so when players come to Major league a Team it is engrained in all players. I have watched several Pirates games and there are far too many errors from Top Draft picks. As a Team, they need to grind out at bats like the Cubs, Dodgers, Cards do to them that creates pressure.
Also, I understand Pittsburgh is a smaller market but, it appears from the outside that no one retires a Pirate and players continue to leave the organization for greener pastures once they run out of controllability.
I wish the Pirates the best but, too many things have to be perfect for them to have success in their current ownerships management and change their true desire to win. Mediocrity seems acceptable to this Team.
Unfortunately,I think that this analysis is fairly accurate.
The players still have the energy of youth but management and ownership does not seem to have it.
Mediocrity is too acceptable.
The lack of even AAAA pitching backups this year showed how perfect things have to fall.
They take too many chances on the basepaths and make too many fielding errors.
Signing a few low cost free agents is seen as a weakness.
This comes from another frustrated Pirates fan.
They need to change their ways to ever have a chance at going deep into the playoffs which they have not done since the George Bush administration.
The first George Bush.
Thank you BF 88
They would’ve gone far in 2015 if not for the imbecilic wild-card game. They were second-best in MLB that year. They got punished simply for being in the same division as St. Louis.
They were the top wild card three years in a row hence the home game.
Wild card game winner is a function usually of having one stud pitcher.
Bumgarner and Arrieta were unbeatable at that point in their careers.
Correct. Pirates were built to win series, not one winner-take-all game. When has there EVER been such a concept in regularly scheduled Major League Baseball before they started this charade?
If they were playing under the rules of the 2000s, the Pirates would’ve automatically advanced to the division series and shown what they could do. Instead, they got screwed by MLB’s disgusting money grab.
Seem like a fairer way would be to have a best 2 of 3 series.They then have 3 of 5 and 4 of 7.
More money for all,and only a couple more days to the season.
That’s a very solid analysis and prediction of how Reynolds might end up BF88. And I agree, the 2 spot in the order would be a great spot for him. He’s kind of been all over the lineup because of all the injuries but he has spent some time in that spot.
Soroka should also be in the NL ROY talk thus far.
For sure, but I was comparing Reynolds to other rookie position players.
Shame Reynolds is going to be traded..
Asinine suggestion. They have no reason to.
That’s the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard.
The Giants can’t do anything right..
I know that’s right lol
To be more precise, Bobby Evans could do nothing right.
Right? Those 2 trade pieces should be helping the Giants this year.
Except they’re not…..
Didn’t they win 3 world series recently?
Reynolds > Alonso > Soroka > Verdugo > Paddack
Such a stacked class. All five of those are pretty even and add in Tatis who might be having the best season of them all.
Austin Riley will be in that mix as well.
If the season ended today Soroka would probably be runner up NL Cy Young to Ryu and you have Alonso and Reynolds ahead of him for ROY
Just lmao. Balls have been flying out this season left and right. I think you need to put this into some perspective. Soroka is so far up in ROY from everyone else it’s not close at the moment. No disrespect to the hitters.
ARI may not have the ROY but, their rookies have the most impact on the 2019 D-Backs: C Carson Kelly, 1B Christian Walker, 2B Ildemaro Vargas, OF Tim Locastro, SP Merrill Kelly, SP Taylor Clarke, SP Jon Duplantier, RP Yoan Lopez and RP Stefan Crighton.
Also Keston Huira. In AAA and majors combined he’s batting over .300 with 20 homers and 42 RBI’s. One of the best hitters I’ve ever seen. We are stupidly giving Aguilar and Shaw batting under .200 roster spots over him but it’s only a matter of time tip he’s back up raking
Imagine being an A’s fan and being forced to watch the washed up idiot Billy Beane draft Austin Beck over Hiura, while Beane covers for that terrible, abhorrent mistake by trading for the absolutely atrocious 2B/somewhat decent 1B (who will never play 1B in Oak) Jurickson Profar. Infuriatingly bad GMing in Oakland.
Yea it seems Beane has lost some of his magic
At the time, the Cutch trade was panned by all of the “fans” and media in Pittsburgh (presumably these people scout minor leaguers in their spare time) who said it was a salary dump and they got nothing for him.
Now that hindsight shows that they got 12 years of combined control of a solid 8th inning guy and a switch hitting ROY candidate OF’er in exchange for one year of a declining and soon to be overpaid veteran…there is zero revision of the original evaluation of the trade.
Just like the Melancon trade.
I don’t think the McCutchen trade was panned as bad as you are making out. Crick was seen as a decent pitching prospect at the time and Reynolds only had one full season of minor league ball under his belt before the trade. McCutchen has been declining for a couple of years and had lost a lot of value. He was pretty much just an above average corner OF starter. The trade didn’t register very big on a national scale and wasn’t seen as anything franchise altering from what I remember.
You must not live in Pittsburgh.
And we don’t listen to Pgh talk radio and take what they say for gospel like you.
First things first, I like the return they got for Cutch but here’s background….
The Pirates had put McCutchen in the trading block during the 2016 offseason. Cutch was coming off his worst season yet and was going to be moved to RF because the metrics always ranked his defense among the worst in the league.
I can’t recall all the details but the Nationals were offering Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez but the Pirates were holding out for Trea Turner. They didn’t trade him so fans think they missed on getting top 100 prospects for the former ‘face of the franchise’
I hate the giants
Lets see, um World Series Champs:
Giants 2010, 2012 & 2014
Pirates um…well…um..um…um…well oh yea
“We are Family” 1973. 40 some years ago. Wow no wonder u hate u some Giants!
Do we know gobbysteiner is a Pirates fan?
And it was 1979, not 1973.
I am a Pirates fan and I do not hate the Giants.
I’m a Giants fan you doofus. I’m saying I hate the Giants because they traded away Reynolds for half a year of McCutchen.
The Pirates actually won a trade wow
NH has won more trades than he has lost it is just that when he loses he can lose big.
I like Hurdle but I’ve been open to the idea that he’s not the right guy for a while.
Benching Reynolds two days in a row…
Pretty compelling evidence there.
Clint is in a tough position.
He has too many good outfielders.
And none of them can pitch.
He is showcasing Dickerson for trade now that their pitching staff has proven to be unhealthy and awful.
I think that Reynolds is the real deal now and may prove to be comparable to Meadows.He will not be Willie Mays but should be a very good outfielder for years to come.
Reynolds is a better defender than Meadows
No he doesn’t, he has an overpaid, AAAA OF called Polanco he feels compelled to play over the rookie who is actually good at baseball in Reynolds.
Clint is an absolute joke. How he got an extension is beyond me
Never underestimate the loyalty of cronies even when it’s not with an organization’s best interests at heart.
Good deal for Pittsburgh it seems…..
It was a great deal.It was time to move on from Cutch even though he was an icon.
He is still a pretty good player but it seems to me that the Phillies were using their “crazy money” to bid against themselves.He was a good pickup but older position players start to become injury prone.
Pirates could easily have had a Reynolds-Marte-Meadows OF right now. Instead, they threw money at Polanco of all people, what a terrible piece of scouting. Has he ever actually been good even for a while?
Polanco was signed to an extension years before Meadows was brought up last year.
Yes,he is a good player.The problem is that he,like Marte,do not seem to play to their physical capacity for whatever reason.
I think that last year was his best year until of course he got hurt.He started off well this year,coming back as early as possible,but has been in a slump for almost a month.
He should hopefully return to full strength soon,as the Pirates will have to trade Dickerson as he is on the last year of his contract.Polanco does have good power and hopefully that will not be diminished as a result of his injury.
Idk what it is, but in the Braves’ series Polanco looked complacent lost against LHP’s..I mean, some of his swings would have been embarrassing even for a pitcher, especially on breaking balls..It was almost cringing to watch, and I’m a Braves fan…
Yeah its called “being a AAAA player” which Polanco always has been.
“Yes,he is a good player.”
First, yes I know he was signed before Meadows was bought up, but why? Bad scouting. Do you know what a good player even looks like? Its not Polanco. Your analysis is bunk if you think he’s good at baseball. He simply isn’t. He’s a AAAA scrub.
You clearly do not know what you are talking about if you think that Polanco is a AAAA player.For some reason you have it against him.
Look at his stats before his injury last year and see if they are AAAA.
I do not think that he has completely recovered this year from his very serious injury.He also tends to be a hot and cold player.
It is very easy to be negative all of the time.
Strike Four has struck out again.
Polanco’s cold stretches last far longer than any hot spells he ever has.
They are rare.
Basically, he stinks.
I don’t even want to hear about it. Bobby Evans absolutely destroyed the Giants and this was yet another brilliant move.
Yup. People might complain about Farhan but he’s not Evans which is a huge plus. And that sucks to say, as Evans is a really good guy. He’s just a terrible GM
The Pirates lost the Gerrit Cole trade? Probably but they got two maybe three quality major leaguers out of the deal
I do not think that having Gerritt Cole would have made a significant difference last year or this year.
Last year they would have won more games but probably still not made it to the wild card game.
This year they may have won more games but Moran is hitting very well and he can play almost every day.
After this year there is no comparison no matter if any of these Pirate players ever make an all star game.Cole would have been gone.
I do not see how anyone could say that the Pirates lost this trade.
Oh, that’s easy. MLBTR hates the Pirates and panders to the “cheap Nutting” crowd. The Pirates therefore must be wrong at every turn in MLBTR’s eyes and merely lucky when something works out.
Notice how gleefully eager they are to always use terms like “low-budget,” sometimes even throwing in a word like “notoriously.” Yet they just about never mention how Cutch absolutely sucked in 2016 and then was a mediocre DH in 2017 who had to display his atrocious fielding as an NL player. Weird, it’s as if they pick and choose facts to fit a narrative!
Bryan Reynolds is like a secret weapon. He had four more hits tonight, by the way.
He just hits wherever he goes, and he’s hitting his butt off in the majors.
It’s hard to believe he’s only been in the majors for two months, because he plays like a polished veteran. He’s so good that when their gold-glove left fielder Corey Dickerson finally came off the IL, He has no where to play now because the Pirates can’t afford to sit Reynolds, a guy hitting .364, down.
stop. trying. to. be. fangraphs.
Ignore. This. Petty. Ingrate.
Good article. Thanks for the free baseball content.
Agree with you for once…I love MLBTR.
I agree with Josh for perhaps the 1000 th time.
If you don’t like the articles or this website don’t read them.
Save us and yourself some time.
I for one find them almost always very entertaining.
Don’t take it personally Conner but I picked on you in an article on reddit.com/r/bucsdugout/. called Why I Hate Cybermetrics…Or Why I Hate Conner Byrne at Least Today
It’s sabermetrics
Wow this Reynolds guy seems great. Wish the giants had a good cheap young outfielder like him. I mean I certainly wouldn’t trade him for a rental or anything