2020 MLB Draft Resources
Like most everything else, the MLB draft will take place in an unusual fashion this year. This year’s 2020 Rule 4 amateur selection show will launch at 5pm EST, but it’ll be held remotely and it will end after only five rounds — well shy of the typical forty-round affair. Bonuses will be capped as usual, but they won’t be paid up front. Instead, players can only receive up to $100K at the outset, with the rest deferred to 2021-22.
Three days from now, draft-eligible players that went unselected will be eligible to sign. There’ll be a large number of worthwhile candidates out there, but none can sign for more than $20K under the coronavirus-specific rules.
The atypical circumstances only increase the potential for wild outcomes. It might feel like normal at the top of the draft, where the scuttlebutt is that the Tigers will kick things off by taking ASU first bagger Spencer Torkelson, but things could get weird quickly thereafter. There has been some chatter that a team could even punt the draft — perhaps even one that has a fairly lofty draft position, per R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper examined that possibility, concluding it likely doesn’t make much sense for a team to pursue.
We’ll find out soon enough. As we wait, here are some resources to learn up on how this year’s draft came together or see how prognosticators expect it to turn out …
- Teams That Gained Or Lost Draft Picks Via Qualifying Offer Free Agents
- Several Prospects Withdraw From 2020 Draft
- 2020 MLB Draft Order
- Fangraph’s Mock Draft 2.0 & 2020 Draft Primer
- Baseball America’s Mock Draft 8.0
- ESPN.com’s Mock Draft 3.0
- MLB.com’s Latest Mock Draft
- The Athletic’s Final First-Round Projection
Tigers Notes: Torkelson, Draft, Pitching Prospects
The Tigers will be on the clock with the top pick in the shortened, five-round MLB draft tomorrow night, and although general manager Al Avila unsurprisingly declined to tip his hand in speaking with reporters today, Lynn Henning of the Detroit News writes that Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson is expected to be the pick “unless something bizarre occurs.” Torkelson has long been regarded as a potential, if not likely No. 1 overall pick, having put together an outrageous NCAA career at the plate (.337/.463/.729) while wowing scouts with elite power, a keen eye at the plate and a potentially strong hit tool. Detroit has the second-largest bonus pool in this year’s draft, due largely to the No. 1 overall selection’s $8.415MM slot value.
Even beyond the selections the Tigers will make over the next two days, though, Avila feels the club will be well-positioned to lure in undrafted amateurs, Henning’s colleague Chris McCosky writes. Bonuses for undrafted players are capped at just $20K, so the Tigers won’t be able outbid other teams, but Avila touts the manner in which his organization has embraced “modern technology” as both an advantage for luring undrafted players and preparing for the draft in general. The club’s bolstered analytics department proved vital for draft preparation in the absence of conventional scouting opportunities, Avila says. He adds that the team’s recruiting message and the clear opportunities at the MLB level both work in their favor as well.
This marks the second time in three years that the Tigers have landed the No. 1 overall selection. In 2018, the top pick led Detroit to former Auburn ace Casey Mize, who now joins fellow Tigers farmhands Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal among baseball’s premier pitching prospects. Each had been ticketed for Triple-A, but Avila acknowledges that the likely lack of a minor league season has at least led to discussion about some of the organization’s top pitching prospects beginning to log innings at the MLB level in 2020.
Avila cautions that “no final decision” has been made and call the debate a “work in progress.” The Tigers, of course, still view their rebuild as an ongoing process and likely won’t be inclined to rush any of their prized arms to the Majors. The determination surely depends on what other developmental opportunities present themselves, too. While virtually everyone expects the minor league season to be canceled, there’s been talk of a potentially expanded Arizona Fall League format and the advent of a Florida Fall League, which could give high-end prospects like Mize, Manning and Skubal some much-needed developmental reps against similarly touted minor league hitters.
Several Prospects Withdraw From 2020 Draft
With MLB’s shortened, five-round draft a week away, multiple players have removed their names from consideration. Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo reports that high school outfielders Dylan Crews and Brandon Fields have withdrawn their names, as has Florida State outfielder Reese Albert, who’ll return to FSU for his senior season. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel adds that high school catcher Kyle Teel is also withdrawing. Crews will honor his commitment to Louisiana State University, while Fields will play for the University of South Carolina and Teel will head to the University of Virginia. They’ll all be eligible for the 2023 draft.
Crews is the most notable of the bunch, landing 39th on McDaniel’s Top 150, 54th on Baseball America’s Top 500 and 68th on MLB.com’s Top 200. Collazo writes that Crews ranked as the No. 2 prep player in the country entering last summer but had somewhat of a down year that caused his stock to dip a bit. As for the others, McDaniel calls Teel a potential third-round talent, while Collazo lists both Fields and Albert as “top-200 caliber” players, which suggests that neither was a lock to go in this year’s shortened draft.
It’s possible, if not likely, that additional players will remove themselves from consideration in 2020 between now and next Wednesday. Beyond the draft being capped at five rounds, this year’s slot values did not increase over their 2019 levels, and draft bonuses are being paid out in deferred fashion through 2022. Those who go undrafted, meanwhile, will be limited to $20K signing bonuses. High school players, in particular, could see appeal in playing college ball and bolstering their stock, given the elimination of the middle and late rounds of the event.
Quick Hits: Nationals, Cards, Liberatore, Draft, Torkelson
The Nationals are among the teams who released several minor leaguers within the last week, with Brittany Ghiroli and Emily Waldon of The Athletic (subscription required) reporting that the defending World Series champions cut somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 players. As for the remaining players in Washington’s farm system, the club will be paying them $300 per week through the month of June — down from the $400 weekly stipend that has become the norm throughout baseball, as per the March agreement between the players and the league. “The Nationals are believed to be the only Major League team paying a lower stipend amount,” Ghiroil and Waldon write, though the Athletics announced earlier this week that they would be ending the stipend entirely at the end of May.
Just as the A’s were heavily criticized for their decision, the Nats have already taken some heat for the stipend cut, considering that the total amount of money being saved is so relatively minor for a billion-dollar franchise. As one unnamed Nationals minor league put it, even a reduced stipend is better than being released, but “For us lucky ones still getting help, it’s bittersweet. I wish the owners really weighed how much that $100 they cut us back is saving them versus how much it helps put food on the table for us and our families.”
[UPDATE: Nationals reliever Sean Doolittle tweeted that he and the rest of Washington’s Major League roster will be supporting their organization’s minor leaguers by “committing funds to make whole the lost wages from their weekly stipends. All of us were minor leaguers at one point in our careers and we know how important the weekly stipends are for them and their families during these uncertain times.”]
More from around baseball…
- The January swap with the Rays that saw the Cardinals acquire left-hander Matthew Liberatore “could be a monster trade” for the Redbirds, an American League scout tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “There is a small clutch of the best pitching prospects in the minors, and I don’t think you could find 10 better than Liberatore,” the scout said, reinforcing the belief that the Cards have quickly been able to reload its young pitching depth (and its left-handed depth, specifically, as Liberatore and 2019 first-rounder Zack Thompson are both southpaws). The full trade saw St. Louis and Tampa swap draft picks in Competitive Balance Rounds A and B — the Cards got the lower of the two selections — and exchange Liberatore and minor league catcher Edgardo Rodriguez for Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena. Since Martinez and Arozarena were both somewhat blocked in the crowded Cardinals’ depth chart, moving them for a very promising young starter indeed looks like a shrewd move for St. Louis, as the Cards lost little from their big league roster.
- While much of the discussion surrounding the 2020 draft has focused on its reduced length, the biggest story talent-wise has been the amount of quality college pitching available. “It’s just remarkable how loaded this class is in terms of arms,” an area scout tells Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper, with a team scouting director also noting that “the depth and the amount of really good arms, I don’t know if I’ve seen one like this in my lifetime.” As a result, due to the abbreviated nature of this year’s draft, there should be several good college pitchers available in free agency once the draft’s five rounds are complete.
- The first overall pick, however, is expected to be a position player, as Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson has been increasingly thought to be the Tigers’ 1-1 choice. Detroit scouting director Scott Pleis didn’t drop any hints to MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, saying that “we continue to talk” about who the top pick might be, with “five or six guys” included in the final list of potential candidates. Beyond Torkelson, Callis hears from sources that the Tigers are also looking at several other of the consensus top prospects of this year’s class, such as Austin Martin, Asa Lacy, Nick Gonzales, and Emerson Hancock. “Officials with other clubs would be surprised if Detroit doesn’t take Torkelson,” Callis writes.
Amateur Draft Notes: Torkelson, Wilcox, Mock Drafts
The first round of the 2020 amateur draft begins on June 10, and the growing feeling is that the Tigers will take Spencer Torkelson with the first overall pick. Torkelson comes into the draft on the heels of an outstanding college career, which Baseball America’s Teddy Cahill notes could have reached historic proportions had Torkelson’s 2020 campaign not been cut short by the COVID-19 pandemic. The young slugger had a shot at breaking the NCAA record for walks in a season, and Torkelson sat just two home runs away from setting a new Arizona State school record for career homers (a record held by longtime Braves third baseman Bob Horner). Though Torkelson will miss out on these individual accomplishments and a shot at being part of a potential national championship contender, his Arizona State tenure has already been the stuff of legend, especially considering that Torkelson came to the program on a relatively low profile after not being drafted by a Major League team when coming out of high school.
Some more on the draft…
- The NCAA’s decision to give an extra year of eligibility to spring sports will give at least some players extra signing leverage in this abbreviated five-round draft. As The Athletic’s David O’Brien (subscription required) writes, right-hander Cole Wilcox has the option of returning to the University of Georgia for a do-over of his sophomore year if doesn’t receive a signing bonus to his liking, which “some in the industry believe” is a “top-half-of-first-round” asking price. (So, in the neighborhood of $4MM, based on the recommended slot prices.) It isn’t out of the question that the hard-throwing Wilcox is selected within the top 15 anyway based on his strong track record at Georgia, though many prognosticators have the righty in the bottom half of the first round.
- Speaking of prognostication, let’s give into some mock draft action! The latest projections are up from The Athletic’s Keith Law (subscription required), Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo, and MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, and all have identical top threes: Torkelson to the Tigers, Vanderbilt’s Austin Martin to the Orioles with the second overall pick, and Texas A&M southpaw Asa Lacy to the Marlins third overall. Assuming Detroit does take Torkelson, the O’s are favored to select Martin or at least another position player — Collazo and Callis note that Baltimore could opt to take New Mexico State infielder Nick Gonzales, while Law has heard “rumblings” that Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad could be the pick if the Orioles wanted to spread around their draft pool money.
- All three mock drafts are well worth a read, as Law, Collazo, and Callis share some reports and rumors about which prospects could be on various teams’ radars, and what particular teams may or may not be targeting on their draft boards. For instance, the Royals (who pick fourth overall) seem to be leaning towards picking a position player this after focusing on adding pitchers in recent drafts, which could lead them to Gonzales or Florida high school outfielder Zac Veen. Callis has K.C. taking Gonzales while Collazo and Law have the Royals taking Veen, with Law adding that he has “heard they’re cool on Gonzales.” Then again, a pitcher might not be out of the question either for Kansas City, as Collazo writes “lately, we’ve also heard Minnesota right-hander Max Meyer linked to this pick.” As for Wilcox’s placement, Callis projects the Mets (19th overall), Law projects the Nationals (22nd), and Collazo projects the Yankees (28th).
Tigers Notes: Gardenhire, Wilson, Draft
A great deal of focus has been placed on the ongoing salary debate between MLB and the MLBPA, but the health and safety protocol is the other key question that needs to be addressed. That’s particularly true regarding several older coaches, including Tigers skipper Ron Gardenhire, who is at greater risk than a number of his peers. “I’m 62 years old,” Gardenhire said in an appearance on the Power Alley show on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio). “I’ve had cancer, I’ve had blood sugar stuff. I’m prime — and I don’t want to be prime.”
To be clear, Gardenhire wasn’t suggesting an aversion to returning in 2020 — he joked “give me a walkie talkie” if that’s what it takes for him to manage games — but rather emphasizing the need for proper safety protocols throughout the game. The well-being of Gardenhire and other older coaches with previous health issues is an important piece to the return plan. Gardenhire, who is three years removed from surgery to address a Feb. 2017 prostate cancer diagnosis, acknowledged that he has concerns about a return but also expressed a great deal of appreciation for the thoroughness of safety guideline discussions so far.
A couple more notes on the Tigers…
- Right-hander Alex Wilson, who’d returned to the Tigers on a minor league deal this winter, finds himself in a state of limbo with the league’s stoppage, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. The 33-year-old has been working to reinvent himself with a sidearm delivery in hopes of extending his career after a dismal 2019 season with the Brewers organization. “Being 33, I don’t know if anybody is going to give me another job if we wait all the way to next year,” Wilson said of the the uncertainty regarding the 2020 season. Should the league resume, he’d be in strong position given expanded rosters, the need for pitching depth and his recent focus on building up to be able to pitch multiple innings. He’ll turn 34 next winter, and while that may not seem too old to get another shot, Wilson settled for a minor league deal with the Indians in Feb. 2019 despite having had a strong 2018 campaign. It’s understandable, then, that he’s a bit apprehensive about his free agency outlook and very much hoping for a chance to prove himself this year.
- With the draft drawing closer, Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson seems like the odds-on favorite to go to the Tigers at No. 1. One high-ranking member of the organization, Tigers pitching director and former USC head coach Dan Hubbs, got an up-close look at Torkelson in college baseball and came away highly impressed, as Jason Beck of MLB.com writes. Hubbs told Beck that Torkelson is “a special player,” adding, “I think there’s no question he can play first base, and he has enough power to play first base, because there isn’t any part of the park that’s safe.”
MLB Will Hold Draft Remotely
1:45m: ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel adds that undrafted amateurs will be eligible to sign beginning on June 14 — three days after the draft’s conclusion (Twitter thread). There will be a “dead period” for contact between teams and those players in the interim days. Teams aren’t permitted to offer undrafted free agents anything other than what they can offer draftees (e.g. scholarship money for high school players).
12:30pm: The shortened 2020 MLB Amateur Draft will be held remotely, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter thread). It’s not a particularly surprising development but is nevertheless yet another departure from the norm. Per Passan, teams won’t be permitted to have draft rooms. Each club’s head of baseball operations will be on camera during the draft, without audio, as was the case with last month’s virtually conducted NFL Draft. The MLB Draft will be conducted on June 10-11, with Day One including just the first round and Day Two featuring the rest.
This year’s draft has been shortened to just five rounds — a reality brought about by owners strongly pushing back against paying the wide slate of bonuses associated with a traditional 40-round draft amid widespread revenue losses. Undrafted players will be able to sign with any club, although those bonuses will be capped at just $20K.
As such, the next several drafts figure to have a substantial influx of talent, with so many would-be mid-round prospects forgoing their first steps into pro ball. The truncated structure will also come with significant ramifications in the NCAA, as countless prep prospects who would’ve gone pro will now instead opt for college ball. Many juniors will return for a senior season when they otherwise would not have, as well.
The No. 1 overall pick, held by the Tigers, will come with a slot value of $8,415,300, tweets The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal — the same slot value as the No. 1 pick in 2019. As for the actual payout of bonuses, they’ll be heavily deferred. Rosenthal notes that only $100K will be paid to players up front. They’ll receive 50 percent of their remaining bonus in July 2021 and the other 50 percent in July 2022.
It’s been known for some time that this year’s slot values won’t increase, as they do on an annual basis in every other year — another ownership-driven issue that did not sit well with agents. The MLBPA agreed to numerous concessions on the draft when negotiating the March agreement that granted players service time and at least a small portion of their salary in the event of a canceled season or prorated salaries in a partial season. Draft prospects, of course, aren’t represented by the union, and the Players Association sought to protect its members first and foremost. Owners have since contended that said agreement didn’t account for spectator-less games and sought further salary reduction among MLB players.
Quick Hits: Draft, Player Salaries, Blue Jays
Some items from around the sport…
- The league’s decision to limit this year’s amateur draft to five rounds is explored by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required), who notes that the players’ union turned down a proposal from MLB to have a ten-round draft, with the signing bonuses attached to the picks in rounds 6-10 reduced to half of their usual value. The gap between the cost of full bonuses and half-bonuses was relatively minor, only around $500K per team, yet the MLBPA “did not want to set the precedent of altering the March deal, knowing the league will likely seek a similar opening next week and ask for additional sacrifices.” This is in reference to the public discord that has already taken place between MLB and the union about the possibility of reduced player salaries should the season begin without any fans in attendance.
- Speaking of salaries, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney points out that some players managed to avoid the financial crunch that most of the players around baseball will face under the terms of the March agreement between the league and the MLBPA. Those with deferred contracts will take less of a financial hit in 2020 since they’ll be getting their money down the road, while other players (i.e. Dellin Betances) who had up-front signing bonuses in their contracts have already received those full payments. Zack Cozart will receive the full $12.167MM salary owed to him in 2020 since the Giants released him in January, whereas Cozart would have had his salary greatly reduced had he still been on San Francisco’s roster at the time of the shutdown.
- While nothing has been decided about the location of any possible 2020 games for any team, restrictions on the Canada/U.S. border adds another layer of difficulty to the possibility of Blue Jays games in Toronto, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes. International visitors to Canada are currently subject to a mandatory 14 days of either self-isolation or quarantine upon arriving in the country, depending on whether or not they show any coronavirus symptoms. While the Jays have had some discussions with civic and provincial officials about the feasibility of playing games at Rogers Centre, Davidi notes that the club could end up playing regular season games at its Spring Training facility in Dunedin unless the situation changes (such as “expected advancements and the wide-scale deployments of rapid-result diagnostic testing”).
MLB To Hold 5-Round Draft
MLB has decided upon a five-round draft this summer, according to Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com (links to Twitter). The union had previously agreed to the possibility of a draft as short as five rounds, though more recently had pushed for a lengthier process.
Commissioner Rob Manfred laid down the decision when MLB and the MLBPA could not come to an agreement on the particulars. Interestingly, Passan notes, a ten-round draft was also preferred by baseball operations departments. The version on offer from the league would’ve effectively separated the draft into two five-round sections with greater spending limitations on the latter half, along with a cap on undrafted signings.
Ultimately, it seems, owners were more concerned with avoiding the cost of additional bonuses than they were intrigued by the potential to acquire more high-end talent in the later stages of the draft. Draft-eligible players that are not selected in the five rounds will be eligible to sign for a maximize bonus of $20K.
Teams may struggle to woo players they don’t select. Typically, later-round choices can be paid quite a bit more than $20K. With collegiate play a viable alternative, many will elect to await a (hopefully) more lucrative professional starting point.
Then again, perhaps teams will find some success competing with geography, promises of advancement and opportunity, and other creative inducements. Manfred will no doubt need to be proactive in policing this arena. There’s huge potential upside to be had, which creates some potentially worrying incentives.
Finding value in the draft has long been a chief aim of baseball ops departments. Now they’ll have never-before-seen chances to sign an unlimited number of players for bargain prices. That’ll involve recruitment, of course, but there’s a rare possibility for major imbalance in the talent haul.
Even putting aside worries of rule-breaking behavior, there’ll be potential for havoc. Joel Sherman of the New York Post notes (Twitter link) the possibility of pressure on “late”-round picks to take what they can get or face a $20K cap. There’s also a sense that innumerable soft factors could sway large numbers of players in varying directions, as Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com notes on Twitter. There’ll certainly be downstream effects for players that choose to enter or remain in the collegiate and JuCo ranks.
Quick Hits: Snell, Draft, Torkelson, Molina, Jefry
It’s not quite a Cy Young Award, but Rays southpaw Blake Snell captured another unique honor by winning the MLB The Show Players League championship today. (MLB.com’s Mandy Bell, Adam Berry, Do-Hyoung Park and Juan Toribio have the details.) The tournament featured one player from each team competing in a round-robin regular season of games of MLB The Show, with the top performers advancing to the postseason. Snell dominated play in both the regular season and playoffs, including a three-game sweep of Lucas Giolito in the best-of-five World Series.
Snell’s victory clinched an extra donation to the Boys & Girls Clubs of the Suncoast. Each of the 30 players represented a different local Boys & Girls Club, with every Club receiving charitable donations from the league, the players’ union, and Sony Interactive Entertainment. Full details on the tournament are available here.
Some more notes from around the non-virtual baseball world…
- There seems to be an increasing expectation that the Tigers will take Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson with the first overall pick in the amateur draft, according to both Lynn Henning of the Detroit News and Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. While nothing will be certain until Torkelson’s name is called, the slugger is considered the top prospect available by many pundits, and is perhaps something of a safer pick. Perfect Game national director Brian Sakowski tells Fenech that the lack of spring baseball created less opportunity for any prospect to showcase new skills or have a breakout performance, so while Vanderbilt’s Austin Martin may not necessarily be behind Torkelson on Detroit’s draft board, the lack of clarity about Martin’s future defensive position might inspire the Tigers to just go with Torkelson’s more obvious power potential. Henning is even more straight-forward in his assessment, writing “the Tigers are all but certain to take Torkelson,” as he would immediate become the headline bat in a Detroit farm system that is rich in quality young arms but short on blue chip hitting prospects.
- Yadier Molina raised some eyebrows by recently saying that he was open to play for another team besides the Cardinals when he reaches free agency, though Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch still feels Molina will ultimately remain with the Redbirds. “The Cardinals need Molina more than any other team needs him, and no other team would appreciate him like the Cardinals do,” Frederickson writes, and a reunion should eventually happen “as long as sanity and reason remain at the heart of the conversation.” That said, if another team could emerge as a potential suitor for the veteran catcher, Frederickson speculates the Angels could be a possibility, given Molina’s ties to Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa (who was hired in November as a special advisor to the Halos’ baseball operations department).
- Jefry Rodriguez started eight of his 10 games with the Indians last season, though Cleveland.com’s Joe Noga feels the right-hander could be a swingman option for the Tribe if the 2020 season gets underway. It was an open question as to whether or not Rodriguez would have made Cleveland’s Opening Day roster under normal circumstances, but his ability to work in multiple roles and pitch multiple innings could be helpful in a shortened season, given a compressed schedule and the likelihood that regular starters would be on a reduced workload. The 26-year-old Rodriguez came to Cleveland from Washington as part of the Yan Gomes trade in November 2018, and he posted a 4.63 ERA, 6.4 K/9, and 1.57 K/BB rate over 46 2/3 innings last season.