The Diamondbacks and much-maligned former general manager Dave Stewart made a shrewd pickup six years ago when they acquired left-hander Robbie Ray from the Tigers in a three-team trade. Ray has been one of the most productive players on Arizona’s roster since then, but his time in the desert may be nearing an end. Regardless of whether a season takes place, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Ray may choose to test the free-agent market in the winter, when he’d rank near the top of the list of available starters.
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The most appealing thing about Ray is that he fans hitters in droves, having struck out 11-plus batters per nine in four straight seasons. He ranked third in that category last year with 12.13 K/9, trailing only now-$324MM man Gerrit Cole and former teammate Max Scherzer. Problem is that Ray hasn’t kept runs off the board at elite rates like Cole and Scherzer have, nor has he been the innings-eating workhorse along their lines. Ray’s the owner of a lifetime 4.11 ERA/3.97 FIP and has never reached the 175-frame mark in a season.
Most recently, Ray pitched to a 4.34 ERA/4.29 FIP across 174 1/3 innings in 2019. That’s not ace-like production, but there’s nothing wrong with it at all, and the Diamondbacks might soon have to find a way to replace it. They’ve at least pondered it, as Ray has been the subject of countless trade rumors over the past couple seasons. No offer has gotten Arizona to bite thus far, though, and after a strong 85-win effort last year, the club doesn’t seem prepared to part with Ray in the near future. Rather, the Diamonbacks made a serious effort to improve their rotation in the offseason by signing ex-Giant Madison Bumgarner to a five-year, $85MM pact. The belief then was that there would be a season, and the hope was that Ray, Bumgarner, Luke Weaver, Zac Gallen and Mike Leake would form a tremendous starting five.
The potential is certainly there for the D-backs’ rotation to be a smash success in 2020. But it may well end up as Ray’s last season with the club. The same goes for Leake, who has an $18MM option or a $5MM buyout for 2021. A rotation devoid of Ray and Leake would still have a nice trio in Bumgarner, Weaver and Gallen, but what of the other two spots? Arizona just spent pretty big on Bumgarner, so maybe it would shop at the high end of the market again for someone like old friend Trevor Bauer, Jake Odorizzi, Marcus Stroman, Masahiro Tanaka, Mike Minor, James Paxton or Jose Quintana. Otherwise, at the mid- and lower-tier levels of free agency, there should be quite a few somewhat intriguing arms available. You also can’t discount the trade market, where Matthew Boyd, Jon Gray and Chris Archer are some of the hurlers who could soon be available.
As far as in-house options go, Arizona doesn’t appear to be loaded with immediate solutions. The Diamondbacks could keep Merrill Kelly for $4.25MM, but he may be a buyout candidate ($500K) after producing mediocre results in 2019. The team does have several other choices who have either pitched in the majors or are almost ready for MLB (Jon Duplantier, Taylor Clarke, Taylor Widener, J.B. Bukauskas and Corbin Martin are some examples), though nobody there has a proven track record of racking up outs at the game’s highest level.
If you’re the D-backs, one of the many reasons you’re hoping a season occurs is so what looks like a very good rotation can help you break a two-year playoff drought. But that rotation looks as if it will weaken soon, largely on account of Ray’s pending free agency.
The Astros Front Office from what I have seen really likes him or Arizona really wants someone the Astros have.
His name is still coming up.
I think if the Astros see something in him they feel like they can unlock his potential.
Getting a little too late because his arbitration years are almost over.
No. Ray helps the rotation but he is not going to leave a big hole.
This article is written by someone who doesn’t actually watch the games when Robbie pitches. I know that because you miss a very obvious thing that all Dbacks fans know. The reason that he cannot amass more than 200 innings is because he consistently throws 100 pitches in less than 5 innings. It’s so frustrating and so taxing on the bullpen. He wastes so many pitches and energy. He could be so much more effective if he could just learn how to induce some weak contact to go along with his put away pitches.
That said, the Dbacks want the season to begin so they can get something for Ray, either by trade or compensation when he rejects a QO.
I am no where near a professional pitching coach.
If you ask me he doesn’t throw enough 4 seam fastballs and relies on his breaking pitches way too much.
I don’t know your pitching coach is and what year you had who.
But in 2017 his best year is the only year he threw 55%+ 4 seam FB.
His Curve Ball is his best secondary pitch if you look at the CWS% but he throws the slider more.
Last year he threw his FB under 50% and threw his Slider almost 30% of the time.
The potential is there for him to have 2-3 seasons like he did in 2017.
He was a Top 6 NL pitcher that year IMO
Patrick Corbin and his change from Arizona to Washington is one to pay attention to.
The numbers look similar but Corbin was totally a different pitcher with Washington compared to Arizona.
I disagree with this assessment on Corbin. He received a lot more attention in Washington because of the big contract and World Series run, but he was just as good in Arizona before he hit free agency. As a DBacks fan I watched most of his starts in 2018 and he was a legitimate ace that year. Also, Arizona has a new pitching coach this year so I’ll be interested to see what difference that makes (if any) with someone like Ray.
His slider is his best secondary pitch, but it is more of a put away pitch than a weak contact pitch. I don’t understand why he fails to throw a change up or some type of two seamer. His best off speed pitch to play with timing is his curve, but he isn’t accurate enough with it. He needs something he can throw for strikes that induces weak contact. That would make life easier on everyone. Or he can just throw more strikes and risk getting hit hard, which is probably still better than walks, more pitches, and being hit hard in hitter’s counts.
I didn’t look at the photo and thought the article was on the Yankees trying to peddle off Stanton… Sadly this attempt at humor could apply to most teams as there are simply too many strikeouts in today’s game. Imagine the money Dave Kingman and Gorman Thomas could have made if strikeouts were accepted 40 years ago like they are today.
Ain’t that the truth. I remember Kong made it thru waivers 1 year, until it got all the way down to the 1st place NYY who claimed him and he continued to hit mammoth HR’s for them. The guy couldn’t field any position worth a flip, nor hit for much of an average, but he did take a walk and hit the ball further than anyone else at the time.
Kong’s average when compared to a Thomas could have won him a batting title but Thomas was a decent centerfielder. I’m still waiting for a ball Kingman hit over the Monster while with the Yankees to finally come down…
If anything Kingman was overrated in his time. All those homers and a career WAR of 17. Modern teams wouldn’t exactly be fighting each other to pay him.
Forget WAR, a fantasy stat that fans who actually watch the game understand means nothing considering all the intangibles it can’t consider. Kingman was a nasty SOB when he played but his homer or strikeout approach fits perfectly in today’s game with a DH.
Tommy Lasorda just threw his laptop across the room in rage
It looks like it will weaken but it sure looks like Hazen has made it his goal to have a complete 5 man staff in the next couple years-
Their payroll is finally fixed and they have gone outta their way to control some nice young arms recently- I dont think the buck will stop soon, Hazens legit and Im a LAD fan
They have lots of pitching, they will be more than fine without him
I disagree with the article’s contention that in-house candidates to replace Ray and Leake next year lack proven MLB track record. We’re talking next year, and although this season could be completely washed out, there could also be a compressed schedule with double headers that would require 6 or 7 starters per team instead of 5. That would give pitchers like Alex Young, Jon Duplantier and Merrill Kelly additional starts to prove they can succeed at the big league level. Baseball in Oct. and Nov. could help Corbin Martin get back on the mound after a full 14 month’s recovery from TJS, and prove Martin’s early 2019 performance with Houston was no fluke.
Merrill Kelly is as good a 5th starter/innings eater pitcher as Mike Leake, probably better. Jon Duplantier is easily a 2/3 type starter, so is Martin. Young is probably more valuable to the team as a lefty in the bullpen. The Taylor’s—Clarke and Widner have to prove themselves, but certainly have mid-rotation ceilings. J.B. Bukauskas has an exciting arm, though scouts have disagreed on starter vs. bullpen arm. Either way, he’ll be a good contributor. Josh Green is another starter who made big strides last year and might be part of the picture in 2021.
Yes, the big name arms from the most recent drafts are at least 2-3 years away, but Dbacks have plenty of in-house options, and the days of big ticket free agent signings are over in AZ under Hazen. Bumgarner was an exception, gift wrapping himself to the Dbacks.
DBacks have enviable SP depth so they should be fine. losing Ray hurts but you guys like Young, Clarke, and Duplantier that probably could start for a lot of other teams right now as depth, and you will have even more when Martin gets healthy and some of the low level guys filter up. (though i much prefer what they have in the upper levels to the lower level talent) Gallen is a stud and should be the best SP on the team this year while probably filling the 2 spot next year. (i assume Gallen will be better than MadBum, but given his experience the later gets more of the #1 billing and by association the 2021 OD start)
Ray was connected to the Twins, Astros, Phillies and Yankees A LOT in the last 2 to 3 years with regards to trade rumors. So when he hits free agency that’s a good idea of his initial market.
Hazen is one of the best GMs in baseball. My guess is he makes the smart decision and let’s him walk and tries to replace his production with youth. Perrhaps he will be trading Ray for young arms during the deadline (if there is one).
Mike Leake part of a “tremendous” rotation with a 5.19 FIP. Robbie Ray is highly useful with his 4.28 ERA/FIP. Then you get to Merril Kelly:
The guy who tossed 182 innings of 4.42/4.55 FIP baseball. And that is “mediocre”? Seems logically inconsistent
The article is largely on the money with the exception of the discussion of the in house candidates. As many readers have pointed out, the D-backs appear to have many internal options with varying degrees of upside.
I cannot envision a scenario where Hazen looks outside for help and takes on additional salary. He has placed a priority on collecting arms that is starting to pay off and should continue to do so for the foreseeable future.